Baltic Dry Index. 1463 -44 Brent Crude 87.01
Spot Gold 2019 US 2 Year Yield 3.95 -0.08
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 13/04/23 World 685,273,221
Deaths 6,839,960
“Economic medicine
that was meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel.
These once unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome
after-effects. Their precise nature is anyone’s guess, though one likely
consequence is an onslaught of inflation.”
Warren Buffett.
The stock casino
punters got good news, bad news and worrying news all at once yesterday.
The good news was that US inflation fell back to “only” 5 percent year on year, though that is still more than double the Fed’s target rate of 2 percent year on year inflation.
The bad news came in
the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting where the Fed’s own economic experts now
expect a recession and it might be severe.
“Historical
recessions related to financial market problems tend to be more severe and
persistent than average recessions,” staff noted, according to the minutes.
What does
the Fed know that we don’t? The Fedsters almost never release talk like that.
The
worrying news is the President Biden’s chaotic government is now adding another
trillion to the US deficit every six months, just as much of the world has
begun to start switching the global economy away from trading in over reliance
on the US dollar.
Saudi Arabia has just agreed with China to trade oil in
Yuan. Brazil has agreed to accept Yuan for agricultural commodities. India is
pushing for more international trade in Rupees now that India has become the
world’s largest nation by population.
The European Union is pushing for more international trade in Euros.
While this won’t make
much difference today and tomorrow, it will make a difference the day after
tomorrow, in the sense of 2025 – 2035.
Without some
financial sanity returning in the District of Crooks, start preparing medium
term for the dollar to go the way of the old British Pound.
Asia markets
mostly fall as Fed warns of recession risk triggered by banking crisis
UPDATED THU, APR 13 2023 12:28 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower on
Thursday after minutes
from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed
that Fed officials see the U.S. economy entering a recession in the wake of the
banking crisis.
Comments from the
Fed erased earlier gains seen on Wall Street after the release of the U.S.
consumer price index report that showed inflation cooled in March. The U.S. CPI rose
0.1% for the month and 5% from a year ago while core CPI rose 5.6% on an annual
basis.
Stocks on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
0.5% lower, while the Hang Seng Tech index slid 1%.
In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was
fractionally higher and the Shenzhen Component fell
0.5% as investors digested a surprise jump in trade data.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi was
flat and the Kosdaq was marginally higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
0.15% while the Topix fell fractionally.
Overnight
on Wall Street, stocks ended lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
snapped a four-day win streak, erasing earlier gains following the U.S.
inflation report and shed 0.11%. The S&P 500 declined 0.41% and the Nasdaq
Composite fell by 0.85%.
Asia markets mostly
fall as Fed warns of recession risk triggered by banking crisis (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
tick lower as investors weigh recession risk: Live updates
UPDATED WED, APR 12 2023 7:08 PM EDT
Wall Street futures were little changed on
Wednesday evening, as investors weighed recession risk following the latest
meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve.
Futures
linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were
60 points lower, or 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures
inched down 0.1%. Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell
about 0.2%.
Stocks ended Wednesday’s regular
trading session on a down note. The S&P 500 closed
0.41% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.85%. The Dow snapped a four-day winning streak, ending the day down 38.29
points, or 0.11%.
At first, the major averages were
earlier in the session following the release of March’s consumer price index
report, which showed headline pressures slowed last month. The
CPI advanced 0.1% month over month in March, and 5% from the prior year.
Traders’ sentiment turned in the
afternoon following the release of
minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
In particular, the Fed expects the recent banking crisis to cause a recession
later this year.
“Wall Street went from focusing on a mostly
cooler-than-expected inflation report to the Fed Minutes that prompted
recession worries as further banking turmoil could be right around the corner
as bank earnings near,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.
Investors will now turn their
attention to wholesale inflation data, with the producer price index report
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics due out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Weekly
jobless claims are also due at that time. Wall Street is also eyeing the
beginning of major corporate earnings on Friday, with commercial banks
including JPMorgan and Citigroup as
well as firms like BlackRock reporting.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Your Evening Briefing: Inflation May Be Headed Down Again
12 April 2023 at 22:42 BST
Several measures of US inflation moderated in March,
lending weight to Wall Street hopes of an end to rate hikes and support for Fed
fans who contend its soft-landing plans are bearing fruit. The core consumer
price index (which excludes food and energy) rose just 0.4% from the prior
month, dropping a tenth of a percent. Measures of housing costs posted their
smallest monthly increases in about a year and grocery prices dropped.
Traders are betting on a 25 basis-point rate hike at the
Fed’s May meeting, but that may be it. “May should still tilt to a hike,” said
Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics. “But it does
take some of the wind out of whether another hike in June will
be needed at all.” Here’s your markets
wrap.
Here are today’s top stories
Now the bad news: The golden age of the I bond appears to be over. Yields on the popular debt are set to slump given softening inflation. Just a few months ago, they offered an historic 9.62% rate. Now that figure is expected to fall to 3.8%, putting the return closer to what you can get on certificates of deposit, high-yield savings and money-market funds.
More
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: US Inflation May Be Headed Down Again - Bloomberg
Deficit Tops $1 Trillion in First Six Months of FY2023
TERENCE P. JEFFREY |
APRIL 12, 2023 | 5:35PM EDT
(CNSNews.com) - The federal deficit topped $1 trillion in
the first six months of fiscal 2023 (October through March), according
to the Monthly Treasury Statement released today.
This was despite the fact that federal tax
revenues in the first six months of this fiscal year were $2,048,196,000,000,
which was the second-highest in the nation’s history (when compared to the
inflation-adjusted numbers for the tax revenues collected in the first six
months of previous fiscal years).
From February
to March, according to the Monthly Treasury Statement, the fiscal 2023 federal deficit increased by
$378,077,000,000, climbing from $722,627,000,000 to $1,100,704,000,000.
So far, in fiscal
2023, while the federal government collected $2,048,196,000,000 in taxes, it
spent $3,148,900,000,000—resulting in the deficit of $1,100,704,000,000.
When the historical
budget numbers are adjusted for inflation into March 2023 dollars, it turns out
that this year’s October-through-March federal deficit is the fourth largest in
the nation’s history. In fiscal 2021, during the COVID pandemic, the
October-through-March deficit was $1,944,334,490,000 in constant March 2023
dollars. That was the largest deficit the federal government has ever run in
the first six months of a fiscal year.
More
Deficit
Tops $1 Trillion in First Six Months of FY2023 | CNSNews
Japan,
France and India to launch platform to coordinate Sri Lanka debt
April
13, 2023 12:30 AM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, April
12 (Reuters) - Japan, France and India will announce a new platform for
creditors to coordinate restructuring of Sri Lanka's debt, Japanese Finance
Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday, adding it would be "very
nice" if China were to join the effort.
As
chair of this year's Group of Seven (G7) meeting, Japan has put efforts to
address debt vulnerabilities of middle-income countries such as Sri Lanka as
among priorities for debate.
The announcement
of the new platform, initiated by Japan, France and G20 chair India, will be
made on Thursday, Suzuki said in a news conference after the G7 finance
leaders' meeting.
The
platform will likely consist of a series of meetings of the creditor nations to
discuss the debt.
"We
altogether made a great effort to set up the framework," Suzuki said.
"I hope many countries will participate. It will be very nice if China
will join," Suzuki said.
Sri
Lanka last month secured a $2.9 billion programme from the International
Monetary Fund to tackle its suffocating debt burden and its worst economic
crisis in more than seven decades, which has disrupted imports of essentials
from fuel to medicine and caused political turmoil.
Japan,
France and India to launch platform to coordinate Sri Lanka debt | Reuters
“Inflation is like
toothpaste. Once it’s out, you can hardly get it back in again.”
Karl Otto Pohl.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fed economists project recession this year, in potential
blow to Biden
The
economic outlook is always difficult to foretell with any confidence.
04/12/2023 03:34 PM EDT
Federal
Reserve economists believe that recent banking turmoil will trigger a mild
recession later this year, a potentially ominous sign for President Joe Biden
as he heads into an election campaign.
Staff members at the central bank, who brief
policymakers before interest rate decisions, had long expected GDP growth to
slow this year in the wake of the Fed’s fight against inflation. But last month
they upped the odds of a downturn, according to the minutes of the Fed’s March 21-22 meeting.
Just a couple of weeks before the meeting, two regional lenders — Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — collapsed after depositors pulled out billions of dollars in cash, sending tremors throughout the industry.
The
economic outlook is always difficult to foretell with any confidence, and staff
members underscored their uncertainty at the meeting. If banks don’t pull back
on lending as much as they expect, then the economy might not suffer as much.
But if the financial system were to face even more stress, then the prognosis
could be much worse.
“Historical
recessions related to financial market problems tend to be more severe and
persistent than average recessions,” staff noted, according to the minutes.
For their part,
officials with an actual say in rate policy aren’t quite forecasting a
recession. At the March meeting, their median projection was for the U.S.
economy to grow 0.4 percent — a rate so slow that it could easily dip negative.
Meanwhile, they expect unemployment to rise roughly a percentage point,
conditions that would be consistent with an economic contraction.
More
Fed
economists project recession this year, in potential blow to Biden - POLITICO
New-build property
sales plunge in latest blow to housing market
April 12, 2023
Sales of new-build properties have slumped by a
quarter as buyers struggle with soaring mortgage rates and stubbornly high
house prices.
New-build sales plunged by 24pc in February compared with a year ago, according
to analyst TwentyCi. Meanwhile, sales for second hand homes were down 18pc during the same period.
Jonathan Hopper, of buying
agent Garrington Property Finders, said many new-builds were geared towards
first-time buyers who are heavily reliant on mortgages because they tend to
have smaller deposits.
The average two-year fixed
mortgage rate has nearly doubled from 2.85pc to 5.35pc in the past year,
according to the analyst Moneyfacts.
The Help to Buy scheme has
also ended, making it harder for first-time buyers with small deposits to buy.
Under the scheme, which closed to new applications in October, the Government
provided a 20pc loan – 40pc in London – that was interest-free for five years
and allowed buyers to get on the housing ladder with just a 5pc deposit.
According to the latest
Halifax house price index, house prices have risen by 1.6pc in the last year, despite a gloomy
economic picture, adding further pressure on to buyers.
Mr Hopper said the new-build sector
“almost went into a deep freeze” following the mini-Budget last autumn, which
pushed mortgage rates above 6pc. He said the market was still feeling the
repercussions as the number of sales was down.
He said: “We can see the extent to
which that has been biting and putting a stranglehold on that level of
activity. I don’t think that’s started to come back yet.”
Mortgage rates have inched down since
then, but they remain well above their levels a year ago, and Mr Hopper said
buyers were starting to adjust their budgets accordingly.
Large developers like Persimmon have
announced that they will reduce their build levels in light of a drop in
demand.
Mr Hopper said large developments were being hit hardest. He
said he had seen builders offer incentives like paying service charges for the
first five years, paying for stamp duty and offering furniture and finishings.
Emma
Fildes, of buying agent Brick Weaver, said developers were becoming desperate to offload properties and
were offering discounts on sales prices.
She
said: “You can negotiate quite heavily on new builds. They are throwing the
kitchen sink at it.”
Ms
Fildes said bigger developers were offering the best deals at the moment.
More
New-build property sales plunge in latest blow to housing market (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
The
fact that 2022 saw a fall in Covid-19 deaths, not a rise, reflects the success
of the vaccination programme, which has reduced sharply the number of infected
people who go on to become seriously ill or die.
Well
maybe, but maybe not. The vaccines don’t prevent getting infected and there’s
no science behind reducing severity, let alone reducing mortality. Perhaps the
Daily Mail might like to cite the scientific papers behind their claims.
Perhaps
a fall in Covid-19 deaths has more to do with the most vulnerable elderly and
others with comorbidities having already succumbed, leaving a healthier
population behind, with greater natural immunity.
Covid drops out of top five causes of death
in England and Wales for first time since start of the pandemic - as dementia
and Alzheimer’s becomes most common cause of mortality
In both 2020 and 2021 Covid-19 was the leading cause of
death
In 2022 coronavirus was recorded as the sixth leading
cause overall
Covid-19 has dropped out of the top five leading
causes of death in England and Wales for the first time since the start of the
pandemic, figures show.
Coronavirus was recorded as the main cause of death for
22,454 people in 2022, or 3.9% of all deaths registered, making it the sixth
leading cause overall.
In both 2020 and 2021 Covid-19 was the leading cause of death, with 73,766
deaths (12.1% of the total) and 67,350 (11.5%) respectively.
By contrast, dementia
and Alzheimer's disease
was the leading cause in England and Wales in 2022, with 65,967 deaths
registered (11.4% of the total), up from 61,250 (10.4%) in 2021.
The other causes in the top five were ischaemic heart
diseases (59,356 deaths and 10.3% of the total); chronic lower respiratory
diseases (29,815 deaths, 5.2%); cerebrovascular diseases such as strokes and
aneurysms (29,274 deaths, 5.1%); and trachea, bronchus and lung cancer (28,571
deaths, 5.0%).
The figures have
been published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Covid-19 levels
among the population of England and Wales reached record highs last year, as
new variants of the virus saw the estimated number of weekly infections hit 3.9
million in early January and 4.4 million at the end of March.
The fact that 2022
saw a fall in Covid-19 deaths, not a rise, reflects the success of the
vaccination programme, which has reduced sharply the number of infected people
who go on to become seriously ill or die.
Vaccines were
first rolled out across the country in early 2021, with booster doses
subsequently made available to older and vulnerable groups.
Sarah Caul, ONS
head of mortality analysis, said the figures represent a 'significant change'
in the leading causes of death since the beginning of the pandemic.
'For the third
year in a row, we've seen more males than females dying, a reversal of the
trend since the 1980s,' she added.
Some 292,064 male deaths
were registered in England and Wales last year, compared with 285,096 female
deaths.
The leading cause
of death in males was ischaemic heart disease, with dementia and Alzheimer's
the leading cause in females.
More
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Strange new material discovered in "fossilized
lightning"
Michael Irving April 12, 2023
In what sounds like a
superhero’s origin story, scientists have discovered a new type of material
created after lightning struck a tree. This particular form of crystalline
phosphorus has never been seen on Earth, and could belong to a new mineral
group.
During a thunderstorm in
the summer of 2012, lightning struck a tree in New Port Richey, Florida, which
flash-melted soil and sand around the roots to form a structure called a
fulgurite, or “fossilized lightning.” The owners of the property found and sold
the fulgurite to University of South Florida (USF) geoscientist, Matthew Pasek.
Fulgurites can be a goldmine for intriguing minerals, thanks to the
strange chemical reactions that occur as a result of the extreme energy of a
lightning strike. And when the USF team cracked this one open, they discovered
a strange new form of calcium phosphite.
“We have never seen this material occur naturally on Earth – minerals
similar to it can be found in meteorites and space, but we've never seen this
exact material anywhere,” said Pasek.
By examining the fulgurite in detail, the team pieced together how this
material likely formed. Iron is known to accumulate around tree roots in wet
areas like Florida, and the lightning strike caused that iron to combust, and
fuse with silicon in the sand around the tree root. At the same time, carbon in
the tree itself combusted too, and together these elements underwent a chemical
reaction that formed the fulgurite and the new phosphite material within.
When the team tried to recreate the new material in the lab, they
couldn’t get the recipe right. That suggests that the material requires very specific
conditions to form – if it’s heated for too long, for example, it becomes the
similar mineral that’s found in meteorites.
The team plans to continue investigating the material to figure out if
it could qualify for official declaration as a new mineral.
The research was published in
the journal Nature
Communications Earth & Environment.
Source: University of South Florida
Strange new
material discovered in "fossilized lightning" (newatlas.com)
“The first panacea
of a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both
bring temporary prosperity; both bring permanent ruin. But both are the refuge
of political and economic opportunists.”
Ernest Hemmingway.
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