Baltic Dry Index. 1581 +45 Brent Crude 78.98
Spot Gold 2000 US 2 Year Yield 4.07 +0.17
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 28/04/23 World 686,882,232
Deaths 6,862,569
Policemen are numbered in case they get lost.
Spike Milligan.
In the central bankster fiat money, inflation fuelled stock casinos, it’s time to
dress up the money manager month-end bonuses again. What’s not to like about
the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money. Shame about the workers and pensioners
though.
Asian
stocks surge ahead of BOJ policy decision
April
28, 2023 4:38 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, April
28 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rallied on Friday as strong corporate earnings
helped lift sentiment even as worries over economic weakness lingered, while
investors were also waiting on a policy decision from the
Bank of Japan.
MSCI's
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.94% higher but
remained on course to end the month 1.4% lower. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose
0.51% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) gained
0.33%.
U.S. stocks
closed sharply higher on Thursday thanks to upbeat results from bellwether tech
firms, with Meta Platforms Inc (META.O), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) soaring after reporting
results.
China
shares was 0.5% higher. Geopolitical tensions along with worries over the
global economic outlook have crimped investor sentiment in recent weeks.
Data
overnight showed the U.S. economy slowed more than
expected in the first quarter, even as price growth came in hotter than
economists had projected.
Taylor Nugent, an
economist at National Australia Bank, said the data showed "an unhappy
combination" of softer-than-expected growth and stronger-than-expected
prices increases in first quarter.
The
core PCE data, one of the measures of inflation tracked by the Federal Reserve,
caught markets' attention, Nugent said. The core PCE price index jumped at a
4.9% rate after advancing at a 4.4% pace in the prior quarter.
Data
also showed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell, suggesting
ongoing tightness in the labour market, a major driver of inflation.
"Stubborn
inflation data gives the Fed little breathing room to take heed of nascent
slowing in activity and the labour market should it continue to develop,"
Nugent said.
Markets
are pricing in an 85% chance of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis
points at its meeting next week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Traders expect
the hike to be the last in the U.S. central bank's fastest monetary policy
tightening cycle since the 1980s.
More
Asian stocks surge ahead of BOJ policy decision | Reuters
BOJ's new boss keeps ultra-low rates, embarks on policy review
April
28, 2023 5:37 AM GMT+1
TOKYO, April 28
(Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday kept ultra-low interest rates but
announced a broad review of its monetary policy, laying the groundwork for new
Governor Kazuo Ueda to phase out his predecessor's massive stimulus programme.
As
widely expected, the BOJ made no changes to its yield curve control (YCC)
policy that sets a short-term interest rate target of -0.1% and that for the
10-year bond yield around zero.
But the central
bank modified its guidance on the future policy path and removed a pledge to
keep interest rates at "current or lower levels."
It
also said it would look into various monetary easing measures taken over the
past 25 years to beat deflation and their impact on the economy and prices.
"The
Bank has decided to conduct a broad-perspective review of monetary policy, with
a planned time frame of around one to one-and-a-half years," it said in a
statement announcing the policy decision.
More
BOJ's
new boss keeps ultra-low rates, embarks on policy review | Reuters
Back in the real world, a harsh reality just keeps getting harsher.
Gap to lay off
1,800 workers as part of broad push to cut costs
Gap will
lay off about 1,800 employees, more than three times as many as the 500 layoffs
it announced
in September, as part of a broad effort to cut costs and streamline
operations, the company said Thursday.
The layoffs will affect roles at
Gap’s headquarters locations along with upper field positions, or workers such
as regional store leaders who hold leadership titles outside of a headquarters
office, the company said. CNBC reported
Tuesday that the company would lay off more than 500 employees.
The job cuts come as the
apparel retailer struggles to return to profitability while sales sag. The
layoffs are expected to result in annualized savings of $300 million, Gap’s
interim CEO, Bob Martin, said in a statement. Gap expects to see half of those
savings in 2023, and expects to complete the layoffs by the end of July,
according to a securities filing. The job cuts come as the apparel
retailer struggles to return to profitability while sales sag. The layoffs are
expected to result in annualized savings of $300 million, Gap’s interim CEO,
Bob Martin, said in a statement. Gap expects to see half of those savings in
2023, and expects to complete the layoffs by the end of July, according to a
securities filing.
More
Gap to
lay off 1,800 workers (cnbc.com)
Chinese
banks seize on Russia, oil trade to internationalise yuan
April
28, 2023 5:09 AM GMT+1
SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE,
April 28 (Reuters) - Chinese banks are ramping up efforts to promote
international use of the yuan, and reporting a surge in cross-border yuan
business from the country's booming trade with Russia and deepening ties with
the Middle East.
Harbin
Bank Co (6138.HK), in China's Heilongjiang province
neighboring Russia, saw its cross-border yuan business grow nine-fold last year
to a record, as the Sino-Russia trade grew briskly after the Ukraine war began.
China
Construction Bank (601939.SS) and Agricultural Bank of
China (AgBank) (601288.SS) reported total assets at
their Moscow subsidiaries jumped 3.3 times and 1.4 times, respectively, in
2022, while Russia was put under harsh western sanctions.
Admittedly
the growth came off a low base, but these small steps in yuan adoption come
after a string of bilateral deals by China with its trade partners, such as its
oil purchases from the Gulf and other trade with Brazil and Russia.
The
yuan's share of global payments is merely 2.5%, and tiny compared with U.S.
dollar's 39.4% and euro's 35.8%, according to SWIFT, the global payment
messaging system controlled by the West.
But Reuters
analysis of banks' latest filings shows how the one-year-old Ukraine war that
led to Russia being kicked out of the dollar system, is revving up China's
efforts to extend the plumbing for an alternative currency system.
"China
should prepare for the worst-case scenario of being excluded from SWIFT, and
actively promote cross-border use of the yuan," Wang Jiehua and Qiao
Liqun, executives at Harbin Bank, wrote recently in a publication affiliated to
China's central bank.
China
should use the opportunities brought about by western sanctions against Moscow
to expand trade with Russia, and make Heilongjiang a beachhead for yuan
internationalization, they wrote.
In
Inner Mongolia, also neighbouring Russia, Bank of Inner Mongolia has been
actively engaged in yuan settlements and trade financing businesses with its
Russian peers, facilitating bilateral trades, official Xinhua news agency
reported in March.
More
Chinese
banks seize on Russia, oil trade to internationalise yuan | Reuters
High
inflation still top concern for global economy, say economists: Reuters poll
April
28, 2023 5:04 AM GMT+1
BENGALURU, April 28 (Reuters) -
Persistently high inflation remains the biggest economic concern this year even
as most central banks are at or near the end-game for rate rises, according to
Reuters polls of economists who also upgraded their 2023 growth forecasts from
three months ago.
With the global
economy performing better than expected so far this year, most major economies
were forecast to escape an outright recession or get away with a shallow one,
suggesting that policymakers have their work cut out in taming inflation.
Median forecasts for a majority
of the 45 economies covered were upgraded from the January poll. The survey
pegged global growth at 2.5% for the year, up from 2.1% expected three months
ago but below the International Monetary Fund's 2.8% view.
Economists have also upgraded
their inflation outlook. Median forecasts were raised for over two-thirds of 45
economies polled and economists said they were bracing for inflation to top
their predictions, not undershoot them.
More than a
three-quarters majority of economists, 207 of 268, who answered an additional
question said the bigger risk to their 2023 inflation view was for it to be
higher than they expected. Just 61 said it could be lower than forecast.
More
High
inflation still top concern for global economy, say economists: Reuters poll |
Reuters
“With a roof over his head Graeme had ceased to work, living off his pension and his wits, both hopelessly inadequate.”
With apologies to
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Investors are making
the wrong bet on a recession — and it's going to cost them big time
Thu, April 27, 2023 at 11:02 AM GMT+1
How betting on a recession could
wreck the market
A popular phrase among investors
and analysts is "the bond market is always right." From predicting
downturns to the Federal Reserve's next move, the bond market's historical
forecasting track record and its "wisdom of the crowd" quality have
given it a near-mythic reputation among Wall Street analysts.
Given that popularity, it's
important in the economic-forecasting business to pick your battles with it
wisely. That said, it's also important to acknowledge when the bond market is
off base, because when the market's expectations run into a vastly different
reality, things tend to go haywire — and investors can lose (or make) a lot of
money depending on how they're positioned. And it's becoming increasingly clear
that the bond market is reading the economic tea leaves all wrong.
Right now, the bond market
suggests that the economy is on the verge of a hard stop and a recession that
will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to stimulate activity.
Actual economic data, on the other hand, points to hardly gangbusters but
continued growth for the US. And the longer the market expectation diverges
from the economic reality, the more painful the market adjustment will be once
it happens.
What the markets are expecting
There is no doubt that the bond
market can be an important indicator of where things are going, but it's not
infallible. There's already been evidence of its fickle nature earlier this
year. Based on the yields of various government bonds, it's possible to
determine investors' general consensus about what the Federal Reserve is going
to do next — raise, cut, or hold interest rates steady. At the start of 2023,
bonds indicated that the Fed would hike interest rates a single time this year
— a cumulative 0.25% increase. As the economy showed signs of stronger
growth in January and
February, the market swerved and suggested that the Fed would need to hike four
times to slow activity and inflation — a 1% total increase in the benchmark
rate. But after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and concerns about a lending crunch, the bond market was pricing in three Fed interest rate cuts for
a cumulative 0.75% decrease by the end of the year. We're at two cuts now, but
it is still a remarkable reversal.
For this consensus to come true,
the recent shakiness in the banking system would need to turn into a full-blown
credit crisis that brings about an imminent recession. Investors and economists
concerned with this possibility have in recent weeks pointed to data showing
that people are pulling their money from banks, lenders are getting more particular about who they extend
loans to, and that there's
been a collapse in commercial real-estate
valuations.
On the economic side, the bond
market view would probably look something like the Fed's latest GDP
projections. The Fed's outlook expects real GDP to advance just 0.4% this year.
But how is that shaping up right now? Current estimates put GDP growth for the
first quarter of the year at a 2% annualized rate. That means for GDP to sink
to 0.4% growth for the entire year, the economy would have to shrink in each of
the next three quarters to meet the final estimate. This would be a sudden stop
for the economy and have cascading effects for the labor market and consumers.
In this scenario, for example, the Fed forecasts a jump in the
unemployment rate to 4.5%,
which means over 1.6 million people would lose
their jobs.
As for markets, this kind of jolt
would be particularly jarring. Stocks are pricing in some earnings recovery and
a generally strong economy. US indexes are up about 10% over the past six
months, while markets in Europe are up even more. So if the bond market ends up
being right about the economy, there would be a serious, ugly wake-up call for the
stock market.
More
Investors are making the wrong bet on a recession —
and it's going to cost them big time (yahoo.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Curioser and curioser.
Happily,
three advantageous data corrections in UK adverse events hospital
statistics. How lucky can the people of Swindon and Lanarkshire get? My faith
in UK official statistics is restored. So good to see how fast UK statistical
errors can get corrected! Well done official GB!!!
The
people of Swindon and Lanarkshire need to invest urgently in this week’s £113
million Euromillions Lottery! Drawing tonight. Approx. 12 minutes.
FOI
mistakes, corrections
FOI
mistakes, corrections - YouTube
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource
centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Chile's
lithium move a further push for automakers to diversify supply chain
April
25, 2023 7:00 AM GMT+1
LONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - Chile's
move to nationalise its lithium industry adds fresh supply chain uncertainty
for global carmakers facing a shortage of electric vehicle (EV) battery
materials and could provide fresh urgency to find new sources of the metal.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric
announced plans last Thursday to create a new state-owned company to control
its lithium industry. The country has the world's largest reserves of the metal
and accounts for 30% of global output.
While there are startups working
on sodium ion batteries that could eventually provide a cheaper
alternative for EVs, for many years to come the auto industry will be entirely
dependent on lithium for its batteries.
Leading industry
executives have warned of a supply chain crunch around the middle of
the decade as the world's top automakers plan to spend nearly $1.2 trillion
through 2030 to develop and produce millions of electric vehicles.
"Automakers may be more
trepidatious around committing to lithium supply deals from Chile until it's
clear what nationalisation will look like," said Caspar Rawles, chief data
officer at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. "Most automakers will have been
looking for a diversified portfolio of regional supply before this anyway, but
perhaps this makes other regions more appealing."
David Brocas,
founder of mineral supply chain advisory firm Voltaire Minerals, said that
battery metals are becoming as strategically important to countries as oil, and
carmakers will need a special "diversified sourcing strategy" in
response.
Major carmakers
have already been looking for new lithium supplies in the United States, Europe
and Africa. General Motors (GM.N), for
instance, invested in Lithium Americas Corp (LAC.TO) in
January and will help it to develop Nevada's Thacker Pass lithium mining
project.
This push for
fresh options is expected to accelerate.
More
Chile's lithium
move a further push for automakers to diversify supply chain | Reuters
Tesla
says lack of lithium refining capacity will become EV production ‘choke point’
Published
April 24, 2023
- Tesla saw
commodity prices for minerals, including lithium, begin to drop in Q1, the
company said on its Q1
earnings call last week.
- But the
“choke point” in the supply chain is not in the price of the material but
the capacity to refine it, CEO Elon Musk said, and if production can
continue to match demand.
- To further
take control of its lithium supply, the company plans to start production
by the end of this year on its own refinery in Corpus Christi, Texas, Drew
Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, said
during Tesla’s investor
day presentation last month.
More
Another weekend and a holiday weekend for much of the world.
Only a week to go
to King Charles III coronation too. The last coronation took place on 2 June
1953 and although I was around for it and living in Kilsyth, Scotland, I
took very little interest in it at age two and a half.
Hopefully, this one will be more interesting,
although the early long range weather forecast is for rain.
Hopefully too, this King Charles will be
luckier than the first two.
Charles I, made war on Scotland and England and
lost his head for it outside of his Banqueting Hall in London.
Charles II had lots of children, a few
legitimate, suffered a Great Plague of London and a Great Fire of London too. He
was succeeded by brother James II who was
Catholic had even less luck, being deposed by his Daughter and Son-in-law.
Surely Charles III will have better luck. Have
a great weekend everyone.
We
haven't got a plan so nothing can go wrong!
King Charles I.
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