Thursday, 20 April 2023

Flying on Empty. Hoping For A Miracle.

Baltic Dry Index. 1372  +04          Brent Crude 82.34

Spot Gold 1992                US 2 Year Yield 4.24 +0.05

Coronavirus Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 20/04/23 World 685,972,350

Deaths 6,844,707

The tax which each individual is bound to pay ought to be certain, and not arbitrary. The time of payment, the manner of payment, the quantity to be paid, ought all to be clear and plain to the contributor, and to every other person.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

Are the stock casinos flying on empty? To this old dinosaur market watcher since 1968 it certainly looks like it.

Airplanes and stock casinos, unlike gliders, don’t do well flying on empty and the punters in the stock casinos, like passengers in airplanes, don’t get issued with parachutes.

To this old dinosaur commodities trader, it looks to me that an overspent US and European consumer is now getting hit with the reality of continued inflation plus the effect of much more normalised interest rates.

Still to come over the summer, the increasing cost push inflation from wage price inflation and what to me is starting to look like another large surge in food price inflation to come, barring a miracle.

Asia markets largely lower as investors weigh more Wall Street earnings

UPDATED WED, APR 19 2023 11:51 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were largely lower on Thursday as investors on Wall Street digest more earnings reports from names like NetflixIBM and Morgan Stanley.

While many of the companies reporting topped analysts’ low-bar estimates, a lack of forecasts from the major companies also left investors on edge.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.1%, but the Topix dropped marginally as Japan’s trade deficit hit a record high of 21.7 trillion yen ($161.14 billion) for its full fiscal year ending March.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was flat, while South Korea’s Kospi slid 0.34% and the Kosdaq dipped 1.63%.

Mainland Chinese markets were also all down, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.58% and the Shenzhen Component 0.44% lower.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.25%, reversing earlier gains, with the Hang Seng Tech index sliding 0.39%.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 finished little changed Wednesday and inched 0.01% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a 0.03% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.23%.

Asia markets largely lower as investors weigh more Wall Street earnings (cnbc.com)

European markets head for somber open as earnings season continues

UPDATED THU, APR 20 2023 12:28 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a flat to lower open Thursday as investors continued to digest more Wall Street earnings.

NetflixIBM and Morgan Stanley were among the companies reporting yesterday. Asia-Pacific markets were also largely lower overnight, while U.S. stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as investors assessed the latest batch of corporate earnings.

European markets head for somber open as earnings season continues (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are slightly down as investors parse corporate earnings: Live updates

UPDATED WED, APR 19 2023 10:23 PM EDT

Stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as investors appraised the latest batch of corporate earnings.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 43 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures shed 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3%.

Investors parsed a bevy of reports released from companies after the bell Wednesday. Tesla, a favorite of retail investors, slipped 5% after the electric vehicle maker reported that net income and GAAP earnings both fell more than 20% from a year ago. IBM rose nearly 2% after the company said margins were expanding.

The S&P 500 finished Wednesday’s session slightly below its flatline as investors digested the latest batch of earnings, including Netflix and Morgan Stanley, which are both members of the broad index. Though investor focus has largely moved to these quarterly results, the reporting companies alone have not driven the broader market, according to William Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

“Earnings reports have been mixed thus far, with individual stocks responding to specific company results relative to expectations rather than broad index directionality,” he said.

---- Beyond earnings, investors will keep an eye on morning data on jobless claims and existing home sales. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are among central bank speakers slated to give remarks on the economy around the country in the afternoon and evening.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

US economic activity little changed, Fed report shows

April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks as employment growth moderated somewhat and price increases appeared to slow, according to a Federal Reserve report published on Wednesday.

"Expectations for future growth were mostly unchanged as well; however, two districts saw outlooks deteriorate," the U.S. central bank said in its latest "Beige Book" compendium of surveys and interviews conducted across its 12 districts through April 10. "Contacts expected further relief from input cost pressures but anticipated changing their prices more frequently compared to previous years."

The Fed's latest read on the state of the economy provides a snapshot of business, bank and worker conditions in the aftermath of the mid-March failure of two large regional banks that shook confidence in the U.S. financial sector and prompted an emergency response from regulators to contain the fallout.

Meeting less than two weeks after that crisis, Fed policymakers raised the benchmark overnight interest rate by just a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.75%-5.00% range despite what they continued to feel was unacceptably high inflation.

---- Overall Wednesday's report delivered little to shift that trajectory: lending did decline, and elevated price pressures eased, but neither trend was dramatic or appeared to suggest an economy on the cusp of an economic downturn or a sharp rise in unemployment, now at the historically low level of 3.5%.

CREDIT TIGHTENS

The report flagged declining lending volumes and loan demand for households and businesses and suggested last month's bank failures are broadly expected to reduce the supply of credit in the months ahead.

In the San Francisco Fed district, where failed Silicon Valley Bank was located, "lending activity fell significantly in recent weeks amid higher interest rates and elevated uncertainty in the banking sector," the report said.

Businesses in the region "had a weaker overall economic outlook," and credit constraints along with reduced philanthropy made it more difficult for communities to provide food, shelter and services, the San Francisco Fed said.

More

US economic activity little changed, Fed report shows | Reuters

Finally, more on that looming food crisis. While there is still time for some timely rain to help out, 2023 seems more likely to be headed into the food history books for all the wrong reasons.

Spain facing food shortages as severe drought leads to crop failure

 19/04/2023 - 15:42

Southern Europe’s farmers are facing a crop crisis. Months of drought has interruped this year’s harvests and some Spanish ecologists are warning the country may soon be unable to sustain cereal crops such as wheat and barley.

"Irreversible damage has been done to more than 3.5 million hectares of crops," the main Spanish farmers' association COAG warns, sounding the alarm on a trend it says is being observed throughout much of the country.

"If rainfall does not improve within a few days, then rainfed crop production, especially winter cereals, will be significantly reduced,” says Sergio Vicente-Serrano, a researcher at the Pyrenean Institute of Ecology of Zaragoza.

“If it continues like this, then, logically, the harvest will decrease, and therefore prices will rise. It should not be forgotten that drought is a phenomenon characteristic of the Mediterranean climate, that is not something new, connected with the process of global warming, and not a process that we have experienced only in the last few decades.

But the problem is that in recent years we have also suffered from a lack of precipitation against the backdrop of a noticeable increase in temperature."

The Spanish government’s National Drought Committee is meeting to discuss the problem later this week.

Other European countries also face this problem. A map of current droughts in Europe compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service showed warnings of low soil moisture in many southern regions of the continent in January.

"Normally, particularly in southern European countries, we expect autumnal and winter recharge of rain,” says Samantha Burgess, Associate Director of Copernicus. “That hasn't happened this year for many of those countries. So, we're about to go into that agricultural season, the growing season, with very low soil moisture.”

Farmers are competing with other sectors for a share of the supply. The French energy sector uses water in hydro schemes, but also as a coolant for nuclear reactors.

After its driest winter in 60 years, the French government took the unusual step of ordering water use restrictions in February and March.

More

Spain facing food shortages as severe drought leads to crop failure | Euronews

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK inflation rate surprises again with March figure holding above 10%

PUBLISHED WED, APR 19 2023 2:10 AM EDT

U.K. inflation unexpectedly remained in double-digits in March as households continued to grapple with soaring food and energy bills.

The consumer price index rose by an annual 10.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics, above a consensus projection of 9.8% in a Reuters poll of economists.

This is a slight dip from the unexpected jump to 10.4% of February, which broke three consecutive months of declines since October’s 41-year high of 11.1%.

On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 0.8%, above a Reuters consensus of 0.5% and down from the 1.1% of February.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 8.9% in the 12 months to March 2023, down slightly from 9.2% in February but well above expectations.

Core CPIH, which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, rose by 5.7% over the 12 months, unchanged from February’s annual climb — which will be a concern for the Bank of England.

“The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in March 2023 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas and other fuels), and food and non-alcoholic beverages,” the ONS said in the Wednesday report.

As British households continue to contend with high food and energy bills, workers across a range of sectors have launched mass strike action in recent months amid disputes over pay and conditions.

The ONS said food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by 19.2% in the year to March 2023, the sharpest annual increase for more than 45 years.

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said the Wednesday figures reaffirm why the government must continue efforts to drive down inflation.

More

UK inflation rate surprises again with March figure holding above 10% (cnbc.com)

Bank of England to hike interest rates to five per cent after inflation tops forecasts to stay in double digits

WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL 2023 9:30 AM

UK inflation has smashed expectations to stick in the double digits, in a sign that the cost of living crisis is still gripping families and businesses across the country, prompting markets to bet the Bank of England will hike interest rates to five per cent.

The rate of price increases trimmed to 10.1 per cent last month, down from another shock rise to 10.4 per cent in February, according to the consumer price index released today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

---- Worryingly, strong price pressures hidden within the numbers remain, with the rate of core inflation – which strips out food and energy price movements and is seen as a more accurate measure of price tension – still pretty high.

It was unchanged at 6.2 per cent annually in March and hit 0.9 per cent on a monthly basis.

Britain also has the highest inflation headline inflation rate among its peers.

“Inflation continues to ease but the underlying momentum remains sticky,” Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.

Bank of England officials have stressed they need to see a reduction in underlying core inflation before feeling comfortable to stop hiking interest rates.

Experts pinpointed today’s inflation numbers as crucial to the Bank’s decision on whether to hike interest rates for the twelfth time in a row at its next meeting on 11 May.

The overshoot will likely tip the balance in favour of Governor Andrew Bailey and co lifting borrowing costs another 25 basis points to a post financial crisis high of 4.5 per cent.

“The drop is too modest for the [monetary policy committee] to stop raising rates; we now look for a final 25 basis hike in May,” Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.

Others agreed with Tombs, who for months said rates had peaked after the Bank’s last hike.

“To address the underlying issues the MPC still needs to raise rates again when it meets in a few weeks’ time,” Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the business lobby group the Institute of Directors, said.

In fact, markets now reckon Bailey and co will bump rates to peak of around five per cent, levels last seen in the weeks after Liz Truss’s haphazard mini budget when debt markets were rocked by her £45bn of unfunded tax cuts.

More

UK inflation smashes forecasts to stay in double digits (cityam.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Why?

Here’s who’s eligible for another round of updated COVID-19 booster shots this spring

Wed, April 19, 2023 at 12:58 AM GMT+1

Another round of updated COVID-19 booster shots for older and medically vulnerable Americans was authorized Tuesday by the Food and Drug Administration.

The federal agency also announced that the updated bivalent booster shots, targeting recent versions of the omicron variant as well as the original strain of the virus, will replace all doses administered to those 6 months and older.

Now, most unvaccinated people can get a single shot of the bivalent vaccine, rather than multiple doses of the original shots, the FDA said in a news release, noting the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are no longer authorized for use in the United States.

The decision is part of the federal government’s effort to simplify COVID-19 vaccinations.

The FDA “believes that this approach will help encourage future vaccination,” Dr. Peter Marks, director of the agency’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in a statement.

“At this stage of the pandemic, data support simplifying the use of the authorized mRNA bivalent COVID-19 vaccines,” Marks said. The FDA said there’s evidence that “almost all” of the U.S. population 5 and older now have antibodies, either from vaccination or infection.

More

Here’s who’s eligible for another round of updated COVID-19 booster shots this spring (yahoo.com)

US Compensates People Injured by COVID-19 Vaccines for First Time

Updated: April 18, 2023

The United States has for the first time paid people who were injured by COVID-19 vaccines.

Three people received compensation for their injuries through the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP), run by an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services, officials said in a new update.

One person who suffered severe allergic shock received $2,019, according to the agency, the Health Resources and Services Administration. One person who suffered heart inflammation, or myocarditis, received $1,582. Another who suffered myocarditis received $1,032.

The manufacturer of the vaccines was not made public. Information about the people who received the payments has also not been made public.

The payouts mark the first time the U.S. government has paid people who were injured by the COVID-19 vaccines, which can cause serious problems as well as death and were first introduced in late 2020.

Under the CICP, people who survive their vaccine-induced injury can receive money for unreimbursed medical expenses and lost employment income.

The newly granted compensation appears to only be for medical expenses, Wayne Rohde, author of The Vaccine Court, told The Epoch Times.

“These amounts are so low that you can credibly assume that this was just only for unreimbursed medical expenses, and that’s it,” Rohde said. “It’s unconscionable what they’re doing, but that’s this program.”

Most previous payments were for people injured by an H1N1 vaccine, including for Guillain-Barre syndrome. Some received hundreds or thousands of dollars. Eight received at least $106,723. The highest payment on record is $2.2 million.

More

US Compensates People Injured by COVID-19 Vaccines for First Time (theepochtimes.com)

Swiss vaccination stopped

Swiss vaccination stopped - YouTube

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New recipe makes concrete that absorbs more CO2 than it emits

Michael Irving  April 18, 2023

Concrete is one of the most common materials on Earth, thanks to its high strength and low cost – but it’s also one of the largest single sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Engineers at Washington State University (WSU) have developed a new method for making concrete that absorbs more carbon than it emits.

The process of making cement requires very high temperatures, and that usually requires burning fuels which, of course, emits CO2. That can be partly offset by switching to renewable energy sources, but chemical reactions in the mixture also release huge amounts of CO2, and this is harder to avoid. All up, it’s estimated that cement production accounts for as much as 8% of humanity’s total carbon dioxide emissions.

Scientists have been tweaking the formula to try to reduce concrete’s carbon footprint, by substituting limestone for volcanic rock, or adding ingredients like titanium dioxideconstruction wastebaking soda or a clay commonly discarded during mining. Other teams have even tried using microalgae to grow the required limestone.

For the new study, the WSU researchers investigated a new method involving biochar, a charcoal made from organic waste. While biochar has been added to cement before, this time the team treated it first using concrete washout wastewater. This boosted its strength and allowed a higher proportion of the additive to be mixed in. But most importantly, the biochar was able to absorb up to 23% of its own weight in carbon dioxide from the air around it.

In experiments, the team created cement that contained 30% treated biochar, and found that the resulting concrete was carbon-negative – it actually absorbed more carbon dioxide than was emitted during production of the material. By the researchers’ calculations, 1 kg (2.2 lb) of the 30%-biochar concrete removes about 13 g (-0.5 oz) of CO2 more than its production releases. That might not sound like much, but considering regular concrete is usually responsible for releasing about 0.9 kg (2 lb) of CO2 per 1 kg of material, it’s a stark difference.

The total gains could be even better, the team says, if downstream differences were accounted for in their analysis. For example, using biochar for environmentally friendly purposes like this concrete diverts the biomass it’s made of away from other fates that could potentially release more CO2. Plus, the new concrete would be expected to continue absorbing CO2 during its working lifetime of several decades.

Importantly, the biochar-concrete also retains its strength. When measured after 28 days, the compressive strength of the concrete was 27.6 MPa (4,003 psi), which is around that of regular concrete.

The researchers plan to continue optimizing and scaling up the method, and testing how well the resulting concrete resists weathering and other types of damage.

The research was published in the journal Materials Letters.

Source: Washington State University

New recipe makes concrete that absorbs more CO2 than it emits (newatlas.com)

It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our necessities but of their advantages.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.


No comments:

Post a Comment