Baltic
Dry Index. 1372 +04
Brent Crude 82.34
Spot Gold 1992 US 2 Year Yield 4.24 +0.05
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 20/04/23 World 685,972,350
Deaths 6,844,707
The tax which each individual is
bound to pay ought to be certain, and not arbitrary. The time of payment, the
manner of payment, the quantity to be paid, ought all to be clear and plain to
the contributor, and to every other person.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
Are the stock casinos flying on empty? To this old dinosaur market watcher since 1968 it certainly looks like it.
Airplanes and stock casinos, unlike gliders, don’t do well flying on empty and the punters in the stock casinos, like passengers in airplanes, don’t get issued with parachutes.
To this old dinosaur commodities trader, it looks to me that an overspent US and European consumer is now getting hit with the reality of continued inflation plus the effect of much more normalised interest rates.
Still to come over the summer, the increasing cost push inflation from wage price inflation and what to me is starting to look like another large surge in food price inflation to come, barring a miracle.
Asia markets
largely lower as investors weigh more Wall Street earnings
UPDATED WED, APR 19 2023 11:51 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were largely lower on
Thursday as investors on Wall Street digest more earnings reports from names
like Netflix, IBM and Morgan Stanley.
While many of the companies
reporting topped analysts’ low-bar estimates, a lack of forecasts from the
major companies also left investors on edge.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained
0.1%, but the Topix dropped marginally as Japan’s trade deficit hit a record
high of 21.7 trillion yen ($161.14 billion) for its full fiscal year ending
March.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
flat, while South Korea’s Kospi slid
0.34% and the Kosdaq dipped 1.63%.
Mainland Chinese markets were
also all down, with the Shanghai
Composite down 0.58% and the Shenzhen Component 0.44%
lower.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost
0.25%, reversing earlier gains, with the Hang Seng Tech index sliding 0.39%.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 finished little changed Wednesday and inched
0.01% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a 0.03% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.23%.
Asia markets largely lower as investors weigh more Wall Street earnings (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for somber open as earnings season continues
UPDATED THU, APR 20 2023 12:28 AM
EDT
European
markets are heading for a flat to lower open Thursday as investors continued to
digest more Wall Street earnings.
Netflix, IBM and Morgan Stanley were
among the companies reporting yesterday. Asia-Pacific markets were also largely
lower overnight, while U.S. stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as
investors assessed the latest batch of corporate earnings.
European
markets head for somber open as earnings season continues (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are
slightly down as investors parse corporate earnings: Live updates
UPDATED WED, APR 19 2023 10:23 PM
EDT
Stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night
as investors appraised the latest batch of corporate earnings.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average lost 43 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures shed 0.2%,
while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3%.
Investors parsed a bevy of
reports released from companies after the bell Wednesday. Tesla,
a favorite of retail investors, slipped 5% after the electric vehicle maker
reported that net
income and GAAP earnings both fell more than 20% from a year ago. IBM rose
nearly 2% after the company said
margins were expanding.
The S&P 500 finished
Wednesday’s session slightly below its flatline as investors
digested the latest batch of earnings, including Netflix and Morgan Stanley,
which are both members of the broad index. Though investor focus has largely
moved to these quarterly results, the reporting companies alone have not driven
the broader market, according to William Northey, senior investment director at
U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“Earnings reports have been mixed
thus far, with individual stocks responding to specific company results
relative to expectations rather than broad index directionality,” he said.
---- Beyond
earnings, investors will keep an eye on morning data on jobless claims and
existing home sales. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed
President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are among
central bank speakers slated to give remarks on the economy around the country
in the afternoon and evening.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
US economic activity little changed, Fed report
shows
April
19, 20238:36 PM GMT+1
April 19
(Reuters) - U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks as
employment growth moderated somewhat and price increases appeared to slow,
according to a Federal Reserve report published on Wednesday.
"Expectations
for future growth were mostly unchanged as well; however, two districts saw
outlooks deteriorate," the U.S. central bank said in its latest
"Beige Book" compendium of surveys and interviews conducted across
its 12 districts through April 10. "Contacts expected further relief from
input cost pressures but anticipated changing their prices more frequently
compared to previous years."
The Fed's latest
read on the state of the economy provides a snapshot of business, bank and
worker conditions in the aftermath of the mid-March failure of two large
regional banks that shook confidence in the U.S. financial sector and prompted
an emergency response from regulators to contain the fallout.
Meeting
less than two weeks after that crisis, Fed policymakers raised the benchmark
overnight interest rate by just a quarter of a percentage point to the
4.75%-5.00% range despite what they continued to feel was unacceptably high
inflation.
---- Overall Wednesday's report delivered little to shift
that trajectory: lending did decline, and elevated price pressures eased, but
neither trend was dramatic or appeared to suggest an economy on the cusp of an
economic downturn or a sharp rise in unemployment, now at the historically low
level of 3.5%.
CREDIT TIGHTENS
The
report flagged declining lending volumes and loan demand for households and
businesses and suggested last month's bank failures are broadly expected to
reduce the supply of credit in the months ahead.
In
the San Francisco Fed district, where failed Silicon Valley Bank was located,
"lending activity fell significantly in recent weeks amid higher interest
rates and elevated uncertainty in the banking sector," the report said.
Businesses
in the region "had a weaker overall economic outlook," and credit
constraints along with reduced philanthropy made it more difficult for
communities to provide food, shelter and services, the San Francisco Fed said.
More
US
economic activity little changed, Fed report shows | Reuters
Finally, more on that looming food crisis. While there is still time for some timely rain to help out, 2023 seems more likely to be headed into the food history books for all the wrong reasons.
Spain facing food
shortages as severe drought leads to crop failure
Updated: 19/04/2023 - 15:42
Southern Europe’s
farmers are facing a crop crisis. Months of drought has interruped this year’s
harvests and some Spanish ecologists are warning the country may soon be unable
to sustain cereal crops such as wheat and barley.
"Irreversible
damage has been done to more than 3.5 million hectares of crops," the main
Spanish farmers' association COAG warns, sounding the alarm on a trend it says
is being observed throughout much of the country.
"If rainfall does not improve within a few days, then rainfed crop production,
especially winter cereals, will be significantly reduced,” says Sergio
Vicente-Serrano, a researcher at the Pyrenean Institute of Ecology of Zaragoza.
“If it continues
like this, then, logically, the harvest will decrease, and therefore prices will rise. It should not be
forgotten that drought is a phenomenon characteristic of the Mediterranean climate, that is not something new, connected
with the process of global warming, and not a process that we have experienced only
in the last few decades.
But the problem is
that in recent years we have also suffered from a lack of precipitation against
the backdrop of a noticeable increase in temperature."
The Spanish government’s
National Drought Committee is meeting to discuss the problem later this week.
Other European
countries also face this problem. A map of current droughts in Europe compiled by the Copernicus
Climate Change Service showed warnings of low soil moisture in many southern regions
of the continent in January.
"Normally,
particularly in southern European countries, we expect autumnal and winter
recharge of rain,” says Samantha Burgess, Associate Director of Copernicus.
“That hasn't happened this year for many of those countries. So, we're about to
go into that agricultural season, the growing season, with very low
soil moisture.”
Farmers are
competing with other sectors for a share of the supply. The French energy
sector uses water in hydro schemes, but also as a coolant for nuclear reactors.
After its driest
winter in 60 years, the French government took the unusual step of
ordering water use restrictions in February and March.
More
Spain facing food shortages as severe drought leads to crop failure | Euronews
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK inflation rate
surprises again with March figure holding above 10%
PUBLISHED WED, APR 19 2023 2:10
AM EDT
U.K. inflation unexpectedly remained in
double-digits in March as households continued to grapple with soaring food and
energy bills.
The consumer price index rose by an annual 10.1%,
according to the Office for National Statistics, above a consensus projection
of 9.8% in a Reuters poll of economists.
This is a slight dip from the unexpected jump to 10.4% of February, which broke three consecutive months of
declines since October’s 41-year high of 11.1%.
On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 0.8%, above
a Reuters consensus of 0.5% and down from the 1.1% of February.
The Consumer Prices Index including owner
occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 8.9% in the 12 months to March 2023,
down slightly from 9.2% in February but well above expectations.
Core CPIH, which excludes volatile food, energy,
alcohol and tobacco prices, rose by 5.7% over the 12 months, unchanged from
February’s annual climb — which will be a concern for the Bank
of England.
“The largest upward contributions to the annual
CPIH inflation rate in March 2023 came from housing and household services
(principally from electricity, gas and other fuels), and food and non-alcoholic
beverages,” the ONS said in the Wednesday report.
As British households continue to contend with
high food and energy bills, workers across a range of sectors have launched mass strike action in recent months amid disputes over pay and conditions.
The ONS said food and non-alcoholic beverages
prices rose by 19.2% in the year to March 2023, the sharpest annual increase
for more than 45 years.
U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said the
Wednesday figures reaffirm why the government must continue efforts to drive
down inflation.
More
UK inflation rate surprises again with March figure
holding above 10% (cnbc.com)
Bank
of England to hike interest rates to five per cent after inflation tops
forecasts to stay in double digits
WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL 2023 9:30 AM
UK inflation has smashed expectations
to stick in the double digits, in a sign that the cost of living crisis is
still gripping families and businesses across the country, prompting markets to
bet the Bank of England will hike interest rates to five per cent.
The rate of price increases trimmed
to 10.1 per cent last month, down from another shock rise to 10.4 per cent in
February, according to the consumer price index released today by the Office
for National Statistics (ONS).
---- Worryingly, strong price pressures hidden within the
numbers remain, with the rate of core inflation – which strips out food and
energy price movements and is seen as a more accurate measure of price tension
– still pretty high.
It was unchanged at 6.2 per cent
annually in March and hit 0.9 per cent on a monthly basis.
Britain also has the highest
inflation headline inflation rate among its peers.
“Inflation continues
to ease but the underlying momentum remains sticky,” Yael Selfin, chief
economist at KPMG UK, said.
Bank of England
officials have stressed they need to see a reduction in underlying core
inflation before feeling comfortable to stop hiking interest rates.
The overshoot will likely tip the
balance in favour of Governor Andrew Bailey and co lifting borrowing costs
another 25 basis points to a post financial crisis high of 4.5 per cent.
“The drop is too modest for the
[monetary policy committee] to stop raising rates; we now look for a final 25
basis hike in May,” Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at consultancy Pantheon
Macroeconomics, said.
Others agreed with Tombs, who for
months said rates had peaked after the Bank’s last hike.
“To address the underlying issues the
MPC still needs to raise rates again when it meets in a few weeks’ time,” Kitty
Ussher, chief economist at the business lobby group the Institute of Directors,
said.
In fact, markets now reckon Bailey
and co will bump rates to peak of around five per cent, levels last seen in the
weeks after Liz Truss’s haphazard mini budget when debt markets were rocked by
her £45bn of unfunded tax cuts.
More
UK inflation smashes forecasts to stay in double digits (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Why?
Here’s who’s eligible
for another round of updated COVID-19 booster shots this spring
Wed, April 19, 2023 at 12:58 AM GMT+1
Another round of updated COVID-19 booster shots for older and
medically vulnerable Americans was authorized Tuesday by the Food and Drug Administration.
The federal agency also announced
that the updated bivalent booster shots, targeting recent versions of the omicron variant as well as the original strain of the virus, will
replace all doses administered to those 6 months and older.
Now, most unvaccinated people can get a single shot of the
bivalent vaccine, rather than multiple doses of the original shots, the FDA
said in a news release, noting the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are no
longer authorized for use in the United States.
The decision is part of the federal
government’s effort to simplify COVID-19 vaccinations.
The FDA “believes that this approach
will help encourage future vaccination,” Dr. Peter Marks, director of the
agency’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in a statement.
“At this stage of the pandemic, data
support simplifying the use of the authorized mRNA bivalent COVID-19 vaccines,”
Marks said. The FDA said there’s evidence that “almost all” of the U.S.
population 5 and older now have antibodies, either from vaccination or
infection.
More
Here’s who’s
eligible for another round of updated COVID-19 booster shots this spring
(yahoo.com)
US Compensates People Injured
by COVID-19 Vaccines for First Time
Updated:
April 18, 2023
The United States has for the first
time paid
people who were injured by COVID-19 vaccines.
Three people received compensation for their injuries
through the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP), run by an
agency within the Department of Health and Human Services, officials said
in a new update.
One person who suffered severe allergic shock received
$2,019, according to the agency, the Health Resources and Services
Administration. One person who suffered heart inflammation, or myocarditis,
received $1,582. Another who suffered myocarditis received $1,032.
The manufacturer of the vaccines was not made public.
Information about the people who received the payments has also not been made
public.
The payouts mark the first time the U.S. government has
paid people who were injured by the COVID-19 vaccines, which can cause serious
problems as well as death and were first introduced in late 2020.
Under the CICP, people who survive their vaccine-induced
injury can receive money for unreimbursed medical expenses and lost
employment income.
The
newly granted compensation appears to only be for medical expenses, Wayne
Rohde, author of The Vaccine Court, told The Epoch Times.
“These
amounts are so low that you can credibly assume that this was just only for
unreimbursed medical expenses, and that’s it,” Rohde said. “It’s unconscionable
what they’re doing, but that’s this program.”
Most
previous payments were for people injured by an H1N1 vaccine, including for
Guillain-Barre syndrome. Some received hundreds or thousands of dollars. Eight
received at least $106,723. The highest payment on record is $2.2 million.
More
US Compensates
People Injured by COVID-19 Vaccines for First Time (theepochtimes.com)
Swiss
vaccination stopped
Swiss vaccination stopped - YouTube
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New recipe makes concrete that absorbs more CO2 than
it emits
Michael Irving April 18, 2023
Concrete is one of the most
common materials on Earth, thanks to its high strength and low cost – but it’s
also one of the largest single sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Engineers
at Washington State University (WSU) have developed a new method for making
concrete that absorbs
more carbon than it emits.
The process of making cement requires very high
temperatures, and that usually requires burning fuels which, of course, emits
CO2. That can be partly offset by switching to renewable energy sources, but
chemical reactions in the mixture also release huge amounts of CO2, and this is
harder to avoid. All up, it’s estimated that cement production accounts for as
much as 8% of humanity’s total carbon dioxide emissions.
Scientists have been tweaking
the formula to try to reduce concrete’s
carbon footprint, by substituting
limestone for volcanic
rock, or adding ingredients like titanium
dioxide, construction
waste, baking
soda or a clay
commonly discarded during mining.
Other teams have even tried using microalgae
to grow the required limestone.
For the new study, the WSU
researchers investigated a new method involving biochar, a charcoal made from
organic waste. While biochar has been added
to cement before, this time the
team treated it first using concrete washout wastewater. This boosted its
strength and allowed a higher proportion of the additive to be mixed in. But
most importantly, the biochar was able to absorb up to 23% of its own weight in
carbon dioxide from the air around it.
In experiments, the team created cement that
contained 30% treated biochar, and found that the resulting concrete was
carbon-negative – it actually absorbed more carbon dioxide than was emitted
during production of the material. By the researchers’ calculations, 1 kg (2.2
lb) of the 30%-biochar concrete removes about 13 g (-0.5 oz) of CO2 more than
its production releases. That might not sound like much, but considering
regular concrete is usually responsible for releasing about 0.9 kg (2 lb) of
CO2 per 1 kg of material, it’s a stark difference.
The total gains could be even better, the team
says, if downstream differences were accounted for in their analysis. For
example, using biochar for environmentally friendly purposes like this concrete
diverts the biomass it’s made of away from other fates that could potentially
release more CO2. Plus, the new concrete would be expected to continue
absorbing CO2 during its working lifetime of several decades.
Importantly, the
biochar-concrete also retains its strength. When measured after 28 days, the
compressive strength of the concrete was 27.6 MPa (4,003 psi), which is around
that of regular concrete.
The researchers plan to
continue optimizing and scaling up the method, and testing how well the
resulting concrete resists weathering and other types of damage.
The research was published in
the journal Materials Letters.
Source: Washington State University
New recipe makes
concrete that absorbs more CO2 than it emits (newatlas.com)
It is not from the benevolence of the
butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their
regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but
to their self-love, and never talk to them of our necessities but of their
advantages.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
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