Baltic Dry Index. 1517 +13 Brent Crude 82.69
Spot Gold 1994 US 2 Year Yield 4.12 -0.05
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 25/04/23 World 686,587,438
Deaths 6,860,231
Every tax ought to be so contrived as
both to take out and to keep out of the pockets of the people as little as
possible, over and above what it brings into the public treasury of the state.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
As the global stock casinos wobble, the global economy continues its slide towards the next recession.
Eventually, that will bring an end to rising global interest rates and after a pause, interest rates will start to decline, probably next year rather than 2023, if only because of the US presidential election in November next year.
But why buy risky over priced stocks in 2023 when there will be bargain basement prices still to come?
Asia markets
largely fall as investors await Big Tech earnings
UPDATED TUE, APR 25 2023 12:07 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were largely lower on Tuesday, following a similar session on Wall
Street as investors look ahead to Big Tech earnings later this week.
Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are among the
high-interest names scheduled to announce their results for the first quarter.
“Everyone’s just waiting for tech
earnings,” said Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo
Securities. “This is a very, very busy week for earnings, so we’re just
treading water.”
Japanese markets were all higher,
bucking the wider downturn in the region, with the Nikkei 225 up
0.23% and the Topix 0.37% higher.
However, South Korea’s Kospi led losses in
the region as it slid 1.82% and the Kosdaq shed 2.66%, after the country’s
central bank announced that its GDP grew 0.8% year-on-year in the first
quarter.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid
1.62%, while the Hang Seng Tech index tumbled 3.46%, dragged by technology and
healthcare stocks.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component was
down 1.54% and the Shanghai
Composite was 0.35% lower.
Markets in Australia and New
Zealand are closed for a holiday.
Overnight in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.29%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 0.2% and the S&P 500 closed 0.09% higher.
Asia
markets largely fall as investors await Big Tech earnings (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are
flat Monday night as Wall Street looks to tech earnings: Live updates
UPDATED MON, APR 24 2023 7:00 PM EDT
U.S. stock futures were flat on Monday night as
traders await corporate earnings announcements from several Big Tech companies
and consumer discretionary names, as well as new economic data.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures slipped 12 points, or 0.42%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures inched
down 0.09% and 0.07%, respectively.
In other notable after-hours
action, shares of First Republic Bank slid about 20%. Deposits tumbled 40% to
$104.5 billion in
the first quarter, but have stabilized since, the bank reported late
Monday. First Republic will also be trimming expenses, including slashing
headcount by 20% to 25% in the second quarter.
During Monday’s regular session,
the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined
0.29%. Meanwhile, the Dow rose
by 66.44 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 ticked
up 0.09%.
U.S. Bank Wealth Management’s
senior investment director Bill Northey anticipates companies reporting
decreased growth momentum as 2023 progresses.
“We’re looking for signs of
deterioration, or alternatively health revenues, margins and ultimately
earnings — and importantly, earnings guidance as we progress through the
balance of the year. The expectation is for slower levels of growth as the year
progresses. And those items as well as the broader macro factors will influence
largely how portfolios are positioned,” Northey said.
“We entered 2023 with a modestly
defensive portfolio orientation,” he continued, noting that he has not made any
material changes to his positioning.
“The fundamental factors
underpinning our more cautious and defensive positioning remain in place,” said
Northey. “And that is slowing growth, a more restrictive set of central bank
policies and expectation that as we move through this year, that growth will
slow sufficiently and inflation will come under control sufficiently that the
Federal Reserve will be able to pause the rate hike cycle and respond to the
resultant pace of economic growth.”
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In the real economy far from Wall Street’s
fantasy gambling economy, yet more sign of that arriving global recession.
The economy is in
a ‘freight recession,’ with China trade decline continuing
As the big East and West coast ports jockey for supremacy
in total trade volume coming into the country, the pie is
getting smaller as the economy softens.
The latest trade data released by
the Port of New York and New Jersey, the nation’s largest container port on the
East Coast, points to a slight uptick in container processing but future ocean
freight orders continuing to pull back.
In the month of March, the Port of
New York and New Jersey handled 574,452 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) making
it the nation’s third-busiest port. But the difference between the Port of
Los Angeles, which processed the most containers in March, and the Port of New
York/New Jersey, was 48,781 TEUs.
In the first three months of 2023, the Port of New York and New
Jersey was the nation’s second-busiest port moving nearly 1.8 million TEUs,
similar to the amount moved during the same period in 2019.
A freight slowdown that has been in the data for
months continues to be reflected in the activity. A
recent CNBC supply chain survey analyzing inventories and
warehouse space tracked a decrease in truck movements in and out of warehouses.
This along with a 40
percent decrease in manufacturing orders foretells less freight
movement by both truck and rail.
On trucking company JB Hunt’s
first-quarter conference call with analysts, president Shelley Simpson said the
industry was in the midst of a “freight recession.”
Data from CNBC Supply Chain Heat
Map provider FreightWaves SONAR details the weakness in the sector. When
comparing current ocean freight orders leaving from all ports in the world and
arriving at all ports in the United States, year over year, the levels are
half. The decrease is felt both on the rails and roads with less freight coming
into the country.
More
Economy
is in a 'freight recession,' with China trade heading lower (cnbc.com)
First
Republic Bank deposits tumble more than $100 billion as it explores options
April
25, 2023 2:26 AM GMT+1
April 24
(Reuters) - First Republic Bank (FRC.N) shares sank more than 20% after
the closing bell on Monday as it said deposits plunged by more than $100
billion in the first quarter and it was exploring options such as restructuring
its balance sheet.
The
deposit slump overshadowed profits that beat expectations for the beleaguered
company, shored up through deposits from U.S. banking giants last month after
two regional lenders collapsed.
San
Francisco-based First Republic plans to shrink its balance sheet and slash
expenses by cutting executive compensation, paring back office space, and
laying off nearly 20% to 25% of employees in the second quarter, it said
Monday.
The
company also aims to increase its insured deposits and cut borrowings from the
Federal Reserve Bank.
"We're
taking steps to meaningfully reduce our expenses to align with our focus on
reducing the size of the balance sheet," CEO Mike Roffler said in a
post-earnings conference call. The briefing lasted less than 15 minutes and
ended without executives taking questions from analysts.
Managers'
decision to forgo a question-and-answer session with analysts was reminiscent
of calls during the 2008 financial crisis, said Timothy Coffey, an analyst at
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC who had dialed in.
First
Republic also said it was "pursuing strategic options" to help
expedite progress on strengthening the bank, without providing details.
More
First Republic Bank deposits tumble more than $100 billion as it explores options | Reuters
In cryptoland news, Crypto is dead in
America, says one of the long time crypto promoters. And not before time too,
say I. But if crypto is dead in America, what future and purpose does cryptocurrency
have?
‘Crypto is dead
in America,’ says longtime bitcoin bull Chamath Palihapitiya
Tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said two
years ago that bitcoin has
replaced gold and predicted the digital currency would climb to $200,000, has a
much more cautious view on cryptocurrencies these days.
“Crypto is dead in America,”
Palihapitiya said in the latest episode of the All-In podcast.
Palihapitiya blamed crypto’s demise
largely on regulators, who have gotten much more aggressive in their pursuit of
bad actors in the industry. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary
Gensler has said crypto trading platforms should abide by strict U.S.
securities laws.
In answering questions in front of lawmakers
recently, Gensler connected the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank with the crypto
industry.
“You had Gensler even blaming the
banking crisis on crypto,” Palihapitiya said. “The United States authorities
have firmly pointed their guns at crypto.”
The SEC has ramped up its
enforcement of the crypto industry, bearing down on companies and projects that
the regulator alleges were selling unregistered securities.
In
February, the agency proposed rules that would change which
crypto firms can custody customer assets. In
March, the SEC issued crypto exchange Coinbase a Wells
notice — typically one of the final steps before it files charges — warning the
company that it identified potential violations of U.S. securities law. Last
week, the SEC charged the crypto asset trading platform Bittrex and
its ex-CEO with operating an unregistered exchange.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told
CNBC that his company is preparing for a yearslong court battle
with the commission, and is also considering relocating outside the U.S. if it
doesn’t get improved regulatory clarity. Meanwhile, Bittrex has already announced it would
wind down U.S. operations specifically due to “continued regulatory
uncertainty.”
They “were probably the ones that
were the most threatening to the establishment,” said Palihapitiya, referring
to crypto companies. “And they were the ones that, in fairness to the
regulators, did push the boundaries more than any other sector of the startup
economy.”
More
'Crypto
is dead in America,' says tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya (cnbc.com)
Finally, just what we need as the price of
Brent Crude oil starts to fall.
North Sea oil workers begin ‘biggest offshore stoppage in a generation’
April
24, 2023
North Sea oil workers have begun the “biggest offshore stoppage in a generation”, with 48-hour strikes that could see dozens of oil and gas platforms “brought to a standstill,” according to Unite.
The trade union
has revealed 1300 workers, including technicians, deck crew, crane operators,
and riggers, are walking out, posing a challenge for multi-billion oil industry
operators, including BP, Harbour Energy, and Shell.
Unite industrial
officer Boland stressed the strikes are “not exclusively about pay but also
working rotas, holidays, and offshore safety.”
He also confirmed
to City A.M. they would be going ahead with no eleventh-hour
compromises on the table.
Boland said:
“Nothing has changed, the strikes go ahead as planned. An army of 1300 workers
will take part in the biggest offshore stoppage in a generation. The 48-hour
strike action will cause severe problems for contractors and operators.”
North Sea industry
sources have denied Unite’s claims over the significance of the strikes
They have played
down the effect of the strikes on operations, with over 30,000 workers employed
in the industry – many of which are not involved in unions.
This includes
11,500 working on oil and gas rigs, according to UK Oil and Gas data.
As it stands, the majority of the strikers, around 700, are employed by Bilfinger UK and are demanding a pay rise.
Meanwhile, 350 construction
workers at Stork Technical Services are also taking part, alongside 200 from
Sparrows Offshore Services, and just short of 50 from Petrofac Facilities
Management.
A Bilfinger UK
spokesperson said, “Operational safety remains our top priority and we have
procedures in place to minimise any potential disruption.”
A Petrofac
spokesperson told City A.M., “As a service provider committed
to long-term commercial frameworks Petrofac has limited control over changes to
contractual arrangements.
“While strike
action affects less than 50 of our North Sea colleagues, we remain committed to
resolving this dispute through constructive dialogue, whilst ensuring no
increased risk to personnel or the environment during industrial action.”
The oil and gas
industry has seen multibillion profits and hyper executive bonuses announced
over the last few months. Bilfinger generated £3.8bn revenues in the last
financial year.
Further strikes
could be ahead, with ballots ongoing for offshore workers employed by TotalEnergies.
Harbour Energy refused to comment.
North Sea oil workers begin ‘biggest offshore stoppage in a generation’ (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Think the UK's inflation is bad? Here are the rates in Europe
April 23, 2023
Outside of reporting on the body politic, economic news has often
dominated the headlines of late.
Inflation has proved problematic worldwide in the wake of the
Covid-19 pandemic, particularly since Russia invaded Ukraine.
The
term ‘inflation’ refers to a rise in
prices, which is measured by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in what’s
called the Consumer Prices Index.
Every
month, they put together a ‘basket’ of over 700 goods and services and compare
their prices to where they were twelve months ago.
But
how does the UK’s situation compare with other European
economies?
Here’s
what you need to know.
What is the inflation rate in the UK?
Inflation
in the UK has recently been hitting historical highs.
This
month, the ONS released news that the UK’s Consumer
Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate hit 10.1% in March 2023.
This
is down slightly from 10.4% in February 2023.
The CPI, including owner occupiers’
housing costs (which includes costs associated with owning, maintaining, and
living in your home), rose by 8.9% in the 12 months to March 2023, down from
9.2% in February.
The largest upward contributions to
the annual CPIH inflation rate in March 2023 came from housing and household
services (largely from electricity, gas and other fuels), and food and non-alcoholic
beverages.
What are the inflation rates across Europe?
Inflation
rates across Europe vary, with some performing better than the UK, some
performing worse, and others are hovering around the same level.
According
to Eurostats harmonised
index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate of the European Union (EU) for
February 2023, the UK’s 10.1% is higher than the bloc’s average of 8.3%
The
EU countries performing worst are Hungary at 25.6%, Latvia at 17.2%, and
Czechia at 16.5%.
However, at the bottom of the scale,
Luxembourg sees the lowest inflation rate at just 2.9%, with Spain’s 3.1% and
The Netherland’s 4.5% just above.
Hovering around the UK’s current rate
of 10.1% are Slovenia at 10.4% and Croatia at 10.5%.
The EU’s current average of 8.3% is
down from 10.9% in September 2022, which was the highest the bloc has seen.
Previous peaks have included July 2008, when the economy saw inflationary
pressures due to a sharp increase in the cost of oil, with inflation rates
peaking at 4.4%.
Outside of Europe, other countries
have also been struggling with inflation with the US also seeing 40 year high
over the past year.
Think the UK's
inflation is bad? Here are the rates in Europe (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
So much for the vaccines preventing Covid-19.
Mexican president tests positive for COVID-19 for third time
April 23, 2023
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Sunday that he had tested positive for COVID-19, the third known infection, adding that while he was not seriously ill he would take a few days off.
Lopez Obrador,
69, who had a serious heart attack in 2013, reported mild symptoms from both of
his previous bouts of COVID-19 at the height of the pandemic.
"It's not
serious," he wrote on his official Twitter account. "My heart is at
100%."
Lopez Obrador
said Interior Minister Adan Augusto Lopez would host his regular morning news
conference.
In January
2022, Lopez Obrador underwent cardiac catheterization and was found to be in
good health.
Back then, the
government said the president has regular check ups that include lab tests, electrocardiograms,
stress tests and CT scans.
Mexican president tests positive for COVID-19 for
third time (msn.com)
Albanese government pledges $50m
for long Covid research as inquiry calls for action
Parliamentary
committee calls for a range of new responses to ‘significant problem’,
including a national database and research program
Mon
24 Apr 2023 04.22 BST
The Australian government has pledged a $50m funding
boost for research into long Covid, as a
parliamentary inquiry called for the establishment of a single Covid-19
database and a nationally coordinated research program into the condition.
The health minister, Mark Butler, said the $50m
investment, provided from the Medical Research Future Fund, was an initial
response to the inquiry.
On Monday, the House of Representatives standing
committee on health, aged care and sport tabled its inquiry report into the
health, economic and social impacts of long Covid and repeat infections.
The committee made recommendations including that the
Australian government:
·
Establish and fund a
single Covid-19 database to be administered by the Australian Centre for Disease Control, which is in development. This database would capture
data on Covid infections, hospitalisations, deaths, vaccination rates and long
Covid diagnoses.
·
Use the World Health
Organization definition of long Covid for the time being, but work with the
states and territories to review the definition of long Covid as more research
becomes available.
·
Establish a
nationally coordinated research program into Covid and long Covid.
·
Task the
pharmaceutical benefits advisory committee with regularly reviewing the
benefits of antiviral treatments for Covid-19, with a view to expanding the
list of groups eligible to access these treatments through the pharmaceutical
benefits scheme.
·
Support and educate
primary healthcare providers to diagnose long Covid and to help manage those
suffering from it.
·
Establish and fund a
multidisciplinary advisory body including ventilation experts, architects,
aerosol scientists, industry, building code regulators and public health
experts to develop national indoor air quality standards.
·
Consider a
comprehensive summit into the Covid-19 pandemic and Australia’s past and
current response.
·
Provide funding for
research into and patient support for those affected by myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS), an often debilitating post-viral
condition.
The chair of the long Covid inquiry
committee, Labor MP Dr Mike Freelander, said in the report’s foreword that the
committee was “hampered by a lack of specific data and the lack of a concise
definition of what constitutes long Covid”.
More
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New KAUST tandem solar cell breaks efficiency world
record
Michael Irving April 18, 2023
The dynamic duo of silicon and
perovskite continue their rampage through the solar cell industry. Researchers
at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) have developed a
new silicon/perovskite tandem solar cell with a record-breaking efficiency.
Most
commercial solar cells have traditionally been made with silicon as the active
ingredient, and this has gotten the tech into widespread use. But
unfortunately, these solar cells are starting to bump up against the physical
limits of silicon’s efficiency, so there isn’t much more room left for
improvement without radically changing the recipe.
Enter perovskite. This crystalline material has quickly shot up the ranks
from under 4% efficiency in 2009 to over 25%
by 2021 to rival silicon, and it’s
not done yet. When the two materials are forced to work together, they achieve
even better results, with efficiencies recently reaching well
over 30%.
And now, a new record has
been set. Engineers at the KAUST Solar Center have developed a
silicon/perovskite tandem solar cell with an efficiency of 33.2%, under regular
one-Sun illumination, which is the highest efficiency of any kind of
two-junction solar cell. The record has been independently certified by the
European Solar Test Installation and added to the Best
Research-cell Efficiency Chart managed
by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).
This marks a 0.7% increase
over the previous record-holder: a cell with 32.5%
efficiency developed by a team at
Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin and announced last December. These broken records are
coming thick and fast lately – just two years earlier efficiency was yet
to crack the 30% barrier.
The KAUST team hasn’t
elaborated on exactly what improvements were made to the solar cell to claim
the new record. But this kind of incremental advance usually comes from minor
tweaks to materials, manufacturing methods, structures and design.
That work is set to continue,
as the researchers focus on scaling the cells to industrial sizes of over 240
cm2 (37 sq in).
New KAUST tandem
solar cell breaks efficiency world record (newatlas.com)
There is no art which one government
sooner learns of another than that of draining money from the pockets of the
people.
Ada Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
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