Tuesday, 25 April 2023

A US Freight Recession Arrives In Port.

Baltic Dry Index. 1517  +13          Brent Crude 82.69

Spot Gold 1994                US 2 Year Yield 4.12 -0.05

Coronavirus Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 25/04/23 World 686,587,438

Deaths 6,860,231

Every tax ought to be so contrived as both to take out and to keep out of the pockets of the people as little as possible, over and above what it brings into the public treasury of the state.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

As the global stock casinos wobble, the global economy continues its slide towards the next recession.

Eventually, that will bring an end to rising global interest rates and after a pause, interest rates will start to decline, probably next year rather than 2023, if only because of the US presidential election in November next year.

But why buy risky over priced stocks in 2023 when there will be bargain basement prices still to come?

Asia markets largely fall as investors await Big Tech earnings

UPDATED TUE, APR 25 2023 12:07 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were largely lower on Tuesday, following a similar session on Wall Street as investors look ahead to Big Tech earnings later this week.

AlphabetMicrosoftAmazon and Meta are among the high-interest names scheduled to announce their results for the first quarter.

“Everyone’s just waiting for tech earnings,” said Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities. “This is a very, very busy week for earnings, so we’re just treading water.”

Japanese markets were all higher, bucking the wider downturn in the region, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.23% and the Topix 0.37% higher.

However, South Korea’s Kospi led losses in the region as it slid 1.82% and the Kosdaq shed 2.66%, after the country’s central bank announced that its GDP grew 0.8% year-on-year in the first quarter.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 1.62%, while the Hang Seng Tech index tumbled 3.46%, dragged by technology and healthcare stocks.

In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component was down 1.54% and the Shanghai Composite was 0.35% lower.

Markets in Australia and New Zealand are closed for a holiday.

Overnight in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.29%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 0.2% and the S&P 500 closed 0.09% higher.

Asia markets largely fall as investors await Big Tech earnings (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are flat Monday night as Wall Street looks to tech earnings: Live updates

UPDATED MON, APR 24 2023 7:00 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures were flat on Monday night as traders await corporate earnings announcements from several Big Tech companies and consumer discretionary names, as well as new economic data. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 12 points, or 0.42%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures inched down 0.09% and 0.07%, respectively. 

In other notable after-hours action, shares of First Republic Bank slid about 20%. Deposits tumbled 40% to $104.5 billion in the first quarter, but have stabilized since, the bank reported late Monday. First Republic will also be trimming expenses, including slashing headcount by 20% to 25% in the second quarter.

During Monday’s regular session, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 0.29%. Meanwhile, the Dow rose by 66.44 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.09%. 

U.S. Bank Wealth Management’s senior investment director Bill Northey anticipates companies reporting decreased growth momentum as 2023 progresses. 

“We’re looking for signs of deterioration, or alternatively health revenues, margins and ultimately earnings — and importantly, earnings guidance as we progress through the balance of the year. The expectation is for slower levels of growth as the year progresses. And those items as well as the broader macro factors will influence largely how portfolios are positioned,” Northey said. 

“We entered 2023 with a modestly defensive portfolio orientation,” he continued, noting that he has not made any material changes to his positioning.  

“The fundamental factors underpinning our more cautious and defensive positioning remain in place,” said Northey. “And that is slowing growth, a more restrictive set of central bank policies and expectation that as we move through this year, that growth will slow sufficiently and inflation will come under control sufficiently that the Federal Reserve will be able to pause the rate hike cycle and respond to the resultant pace of economic growth.”

More

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

In the real economy far from Wall Street’s fantasy gambling economy, yet more sign of that arriving global recession.

 

The economy is in a ‘freight recession,’ with China trade decline continuing

As the big East and West coast ports jockey for supremacy in total trade volume coming into the country, the pie is getting smaller as the economy softens.

The latest trade data released by the Port of New York and New Jersey, the nation’s largest container port on the East Coast, points to a slight uptick in container processing but future ocean freight orders continuing to pull back.

In the month of March, the Port of New York and New Jersey handled 574,452 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) making it the nation’s third-busiest port. But the difference between the Port of Los Angeles, which processed the most containers in March, and the Port of New York/New Jersey, was 48,781 TEUs.

In the first three months of 2023, the Port of New York and New Jersey was the nation’s second-busiest port moving nearly 1.8 million TEUs, similar to the amount moved during the same period in 2019.

A freight slowdown that has been in the data for months continues to be reflected in the activity. A recent CNBC supply chain survey analyzing inventories and warehouse space tracked a decrease in truck movements in and out of warehouses. This along with a 40 percent decrease in manufacturing orders foretells less freight movement by both truck and rail.

On trucking company JB Hunt’s first-quarter conference call with analysts, president Shelley Simpson said the industry was in the midst of a “freight recession.”

Data from CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map provider FreightWaves SONAR details the weakness in the sector. When comparing current ocean freight orders leaving from all ports in the world and arriving at all ports in the United States, year over year, the levels are half. The decrease is felt both on the rails and roads with less freight coming into the country.

More

Economy is in a 'freight recession,' with China trade heading lower (cnbc.com)

First Republic Bank deposits tumble more than $100 billion as it explores options

April 24 (Reuters) - First Republic Bank (FRC.N) shares sank more than 20% after the closing bell on Monday as it said deposits plunged by more than $100 billion in the first quarter and it was exploring options such as restructuring its balance sheet.

The deposit slump overshadowed profits that beat expectations for the beleaguered company, shored up through deposits from U.S. banking giants last month after two regional lenders collapsed.

San Francisco-based First Republic plans to shrink its balance sheet and slash expenses by cutting executive compensation, paring back office space, and laying off nearly 20% to 25% of employees in the second quarter, it said Monday.

The company also aims to increase its insured deposits and cut borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank.

"We're taking steps to meaningfully reduce our expenses to align with our focus on reducing the size of the balance sheet," CEO Mike Roffler said in a post-earnings conference call. The briefing lasted less than 15 minutes and ended without executives taking questions from analysts.

Managers' decision to forgo a question-and-answer session with analysts was reminiscent of calls during the 2008 financial crisis, said Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC who had dialed in.

First Republic also said it was "pursuing strategic options" to help expedite progress on strengthening the bank, without providing details.

More

First Republic Bank deposits tumble more than $100 billion as it explores options | Reuters

In cryptoland news, Crypto is dead in America, says one of the long time crypto promoters. And not before time too, say I. But if crypto is dead in America, what future and purpose does cryptocurrency have?

 

‘Crypto is dead in America,’ says longtime bitcoin bull Chamath Palihapitiya

Tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said two years ago that bitcoin has replaced gold and predicted the digital currency would climb to $200,000, has a much more cautious view on cryptocurrencies these days.

“Crypto is dead in America,” Palihapitiya said in the latest episode of the All-In podcast.

Palihapitiya blamed crypto’s demise largely on regulators, who have gotten much more aggressive in their pursuit of bad actors in the industry. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler has said crypto trading platforms should abide by strict U.S. securities laws.

In answering questions in front of lawmakers recently, Gensler connected the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank with the crypto industry.

“You had Gensler even blaming the banking crisis on crypto,” Palihapitiya said. “The United States authorities have firmly pointed their guns at crypto.”

The SEC has ramped up its enforcement of the crypto industry, bearing down on companies and projects that the regulator alleges were selling unregistered securities. 

In February, the agency proposed rules that would change which crypto firms can custody customer assets. In March, the SEC issued crypto exchange Coinbase a Wells notice — typically one of the final steps before it files charges — warning the company that it identified potential violations of U.S. securities law. Last week, the SEC charged the crypto asset trading platform Bittrex and its ex-CEO with operating an unregistered exchange.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC that his company is preparing for a yearslong court battle with the commission, and is also considering relocating outside the U.S. if it doesn’t get improved regulatory clarity. Meanwhile, Bittrex has already announced it would wind down U.S. operations specifically due to “continued regulatory uncertainty.”

They “were probably the ones that were the most threatening to the establishment,” said Palihapitiya, referring to crypto companies. “And they were the ones that, in fairness to the regulators, did push the boundaries more than any other sector of the startup economy.”

More

'Crypto is dead in America,' says tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya (cnbc.com)

Finally, just what we need as the price of Brent Crude oil starts to fall.

North Sea oil workers begin ‘biggest offshore stoppage in a generation’

April 24, 2023

North Sea oil workers have begun the “biggest offshore stoppage in a generation”, with 48-hour strikes that could see dozens of oil and gas platforms “brought to a standstill,” according to Unite.

The trade union has revealed 1300 workers, including technicians, deck crew, crane operators, and riggers, are walking out, posing a challenge for multi-billion oil industry operators, including BP, Harbour Energy, and Shell.

Unite industrial officer Boland stressed the strikes are “not exclusively about pay but also working rotas, holidays, and offshore safety.”

He also confirmed to City A.M. they would be going ahead with no eleventh-hour compromises on the table.

Boland said: “Nothing has changed, the strikes go ahead as planned. An army of 1300 workers will take part in the biggest offshore stoppage in a generation. The 48-hour strike action will cause severe problems for contractors and operators.”

North Sea industry sources have denied Unite’s claims over the significance of the strikes

They have played down the effect of the strikes on operations, with over 30,000 workers employed in the industry – many of which are not involved in unions.

This includes 11,500 working on oil and gas rigs, according to UK Oil and Gas data.

As it stands, the majority of the strikers, around 700, are employed by Bilfinger UK and are demanding a pay rise.

Meanwhile, 350 construction workers at Stork Technical Services are also taking part, alongside 200 from Sparrows Offshore Services, and just short of 50 from Petrofac Facilities Management.

A Bilfinger UK spokesperson said, “Operational safety remains our top priority and we have procedures in place to minimise any potential disruption.”

A Petrofac spokesperson told City A.M., “As a service provider committed to long-term commercial frameworks Petrofac has limited control over changes to contractual arrangements.

“While strike action affects less than 50 of our North Sea colleagues, we remain committed to resolving this dispute through constructive dialogue, whilst ensuring no increased risk to personnel or the environment during industrial action.”

The oil and gas industry has seen multibillion profits and hyper executive bonuses announced over the last few months. Bilfinger generated £3.8bn revenues in the last financial year.

Further strikes could be ahead, with ballots ongoing for offshore workers employed by TotalEnergies.

Harbour Energy refused to comment.

North Sea oil workers begin ‘biggest offshore stoppage in a generation’ (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Think the UK's inflation is bad? Here are the rates in Europe

April 23, 2023

Outside of reporting on the body politic, economic news has often dominated the headlines of late.

Inflation has proved problematic worldwide in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly since Russia invaded Ukraine.

The term ‘inflation’ refers to a rise in prices, which is measured by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in what’s called the Consumer Prices Index.

Every month, they put together a ‘basket’ of over 700 goods and services and compare their prices to where they were twelve months ago.

But how does the UK’s situation compare with other European economies?

Here’s what you need to know.  

What is the inflation rate in the UK?

Inflation in the UK has recently been hitting historical highs.

This month, the ONS released news that the UK’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate hit 10.1% in March 2023.  

This is down slightly from 10.4% in February 2023.

The CPI, including owner occupiers’ housing costs (which includes costs associated with owning, maintaining, and living in your home), rose by 8.9% in the 12 months to March 2023, down from 9.2% in February.

The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in March 2023 came from housing and household services (largely from electricity, gas and other fuels), and food and non-alcoholic beverages.

What are the inflation rates across Europe?

Inflation rates across Europe vary, with some performing better than the UK, some performing worse, and others are hovering around the same level.

According to Eurostats harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate of the European Union (EU) for February 2023, the UK’s 10.1% is higher than the bloc’s average of 8.3%

The EU countries performing worst are Hungary at 25.6%, Latvia at 17.2%, and Czechia at 16.5%.

However, at the bottom of the scale, Luxembourg sees the lowest inflation rate at just 2.9%, with Spain’s 3.1% and The Netherland’s 4.5% just above.

Hovering around the UK’s current rate of 10.1% are Slovenia at 10.4% and Croatia at 10.5%.

The EU’s current average of 8.3% is down from 10.9% in September 2022, which was the highest the bloc has seen. Previous peaks have included July 2008, when the economy saw inflationary pressures due to a sharp increase in the cost of oil, with inflation rates peaking at 4.4%.

Outside of Europe, other countries have also been struggling with inflation with the US also seeing 40 year high over the past year.

Think the UK's inflation is bad? Here are the rates in Europe (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

So much for the vaccines preventing Covid-19.

Mexican president tests positive for COVID-19 for third time

April 23, 2023

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Sunday that he had tested positive for COVID-19, the third known infection, adding that while he was not seriously ill he would take a few days off.

Lopez Obrador, 69, who had a serious heart attack in 2013, reported mild symptoms from both of his previous bouts of COVID-19 at the height of the pandemic.

"It's not serious," he wrote on his official Twitter account. "My heart is at 100%."

Lopez Obrador said Interior Minister Adan Augusto Lopez would host his regular morning news conference.

In January 2022, Lopez Obrador underwent cardiac catheterization and was found to be in good health.

Back then, the government said the president has regular check ups that include lab tests, electrocardiograms, stress tests and CT scans.

Mexican president tests positive for COVID-19 for third time (msn.com)

 

Albanese government pledges $50m for long Covid research as inquiry calls for action

Parliamentary committee calls for a range of new responses to ‘significant problem’, including a national database and research program

Mon 24 Apr 2023 04.22 BST

 

The Australian government has pledged a $50m funding boost for research into long Covid, as a parliamentary inquiry called for the establishment of a single Covid-19 database and a nationally coordinated research program into the condition.

 

The health minister, Mark Butler, said the $50m investment, provided from the Medical Research Future Fund, was an initial response to the inquiry.

On Monday, the House of Representatives standing committee on health, aged care and sport tabled its inquiry report into the health, economic and social impacts of long Covid and repeat infections.

The committee made recommendations including that the Australian government:

·         Establish and fund a single Covid-19 database to be administered by the Australian Centre for Disease Control, which is in development. This database would capture data on Covid infections, hospitalisations, deaths, vaccination rates and long Covid diagnoses.

·         Use the World Health Organization definition of long Covid for the time being, but work with the states and territories to review the definition of long Covid as more research becomes available.

·         Establish a nationally coordinated research program into Covid and long Covid.

·         Task the pharmaceutical benefits advisory committee with regularly reviewing the benefits of antiviral treatments for Covid-19, with a view to expanding the list of groups eligible to access these treatments through the pharmaceutical benefits scheme.

·         Support and educate primary healthcare providers to diagnose long Covid and to help manage those suffering from it.

·         Establish and fund a multidisciplinary advisory body including ventilation experts, architects, aerosol scientists, industry, building code regulators and public health experts to develop national indoor air quality standards.

·         Consider a comprehensive summit into the Covid-19 pandemic and Australia’s past and current response.

·         Provide funding for research into and patient support for those affected by myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS), an often debilitating post-viral condition.

The chair of the long Covid inquiry committee, Labor MP Dr Mike Freelander, said in the report’s foreword that the committee was “hampered by a lack of specific data and the lack of a concise definition of what constitutes long Covid”.

More

Albanese government pledges $50m for long Covid research as inquiry calls for action | Coronavirus | The Guardian

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New KAUST tandem solar cell breaks efficiency world record

Michael Irving  April 18, 2023

The dynamic duo of silicon and perovskite continue their rampage through the solar cell industry. Researchers at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) have developed a new silicon/perovskite tandem solar cell with a record-breaking efficiency.

Most commercial solar cells have traditionally been made with silicon as the active ingredient, and this has gotten the tech into widespread use. But unfortunately, these solar cells are starting to bump up against the physical limits of silicon’s efficiency, so there isn’t much more room left for improvement without radically changing the recipe.

Enter perovskite. This crystalline material has quickly shot up the ranks from under 4% efficiency in 2009 to over 25% by 2021 to rival silicon, and it’s not done yet. When the two materials are forced to work together, they achieve even better results, with efficiencies recently reaching well over 30%.

And now, a new record has been set. Engineers at the KAUST Solar Center have developed a silicon/perovskite tandem solar cell with an efficiency of 33.2%, under regular one-Sun illumination, which is the highest efficiency of any kind of two-junction solar cell. The record has been independently certified by the European Solar Test Installation and added to the Best Research-cell Efficiency Chart managed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

This marks a 0.7% increase over the previous record-holder: a cell with 32.5% efficiency developed by a team at Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin and announced last December. These broken records are coming thick and fast lately – just two years earlier efficiency was yet to crack the 30% barrier.

The KAUST team hasn’t elaborated on exactly what improvements were made to the solar cell to claim the new record. But this kind of incremental advance usually comes from minor tweaks to materials, manufacturing methods, structures and design.

That work is set to continue, as the researchers focus on scaling the cells to industrial sizes of over 240 cm2 (37 sq in).

New KAUST tandem solar cell breaks efficiency world record (newatlas.com)

There is no art which one government sooner learns of another than that of draining money from the pockets of the people.

Ada Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

 

No comments:

Post a Comment