Monday, 10 April 2023

Spooked! US Inflation Data Week.

Baltic Dry Index. 1560  +35          Brent Crude 85.01

Spot Gold 1992                US 2 Year Yield 3.82 +0.03

Coronavirus Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 10/04/23 World 684,971,418

Deaths 6,837,727

People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

With many markets closed for the Easter Monday bank holiday, stock casino putters will be looking for direction from Asia and later today, the USA.

Away from the stock gamblers, the real world looks to be flirting with a real war breaking out over Taiwan. Meanwhile someone on Friday dumped a whole load of US spooks Top Secret documents on the internet, showing Uncle Sam spying on friend and foe alike and all but a combatant in the Ukraine-Russian war in Europe. 

Ukraine, seems to be running out of munitions, seems to be about to launch its Spring offensive and about to attack the Crimea peninsula, if any of the leaks and rumours are believable, though we might all have to wait until the ground starts to dry out after the Spring rains.

Asia markets trade mostly higher as investors come back from long weekend

UPDATED MON, APR 10 2023 12:14 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher on Monday as some investors returned from a long Easter weekend.

South Korea’s Kospi was 1.05% higher, leading gains in the region, and the Kosdaq index also gained 0.54%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.45% higher, with the Topix up 0.55%.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component was marginally lower.

Australian and Hong Kong markets remained closed due to a four-day Easter holiday till Monday.

India will release its fiscal deficit figures for March, as well as its March trade data, while Indonesia’s retail sales for February will also be out.

Last week, U.S. stocks wrapped up a short trading week on Thursday with all three major indexes posting gains.

The S&P 500 rose 0.36%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 0.76% gain, boosted by a rise in Alphabet and Microsoft shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up marginally 2.57 points higher to 33,485.29 after losing more than 150 points at its session low.

Asia markets trade mostly higher as investors come back from long weekend (cnbc.com)

Stock futures rise slightly ahead of key inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season: Live updates

UPDATED SUN, APR 9 2023 7:02 PM EDT

U.S equity futures rose slightly Sunday evening as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the start of first-quarter earnings season.

Futures tied to the broad market S&P 500 rose 0.2% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 62 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.

On Thursday, the major averages rose to end a holiday-shortened trading week. However, only the Dow notched a weekly gain of 0.6% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted weekly losses, ending lower by 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively.

The market was volatile as economic data showed signs of a weakening labor market. The March jobs report on Friday showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation, however, which pushed stock futures and Treasury yields higher. The New York Stock Exchange was closed for Good Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, about in line with the Dow Jones estimate of 238,000, the Labor Department reported. The unemployment fell to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold from the previous month at 3.6%.

The data is consistent with expectations of a slow-moving recession unfolding in the U.S. – one that doesn’t point to the immediate resolution of inflation concerns, according to Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Private Wealth at Glenmede.

“As such, the odds of another quarter-point rate hike in May should go higher as the data does not appear to justify a Fed pause,” he added.

Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO, said the level of job creation in March “reflects a considerable buffer in the economy to help cushion the impact of an economic slowdown.”

“The report is directionally favorable, but not enough to shift the Fed’s thinking,” he added.

More

Stock futures rise slightly ahead of key inflation data: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Up next, in cryptoland, bye, bye Binance?

Binance's US arm struggles to find bank to take its customers' cash, Wall Street Journal reports

April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. arm of cryptocurrency exchange Binance is struggling to find a bank to handle its customers' cash after the failure of Signature Bank (SBNY.PK) last month, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Previously, the deposits were sent to either Signature Bank or Silvergate Capital Corp (SI.N), both seen as crypto-friendly banks. However, after both failed, the exchange is rushing to find a new banking partner, according to the report.

Binance.US is using at least one intermediary to store funds, the report said, adding that since the money is being held by a third party, it can slow down sending and moving funds.

The company has unsuccessfully tried to establish relationships with Cross River Bank and Customers Bancorp Inc (CUBI.N), the report said, adding that banks are reluctant due to concerns over regulatory risk.

All three companies did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment outside normal business hours.

“We work with multiple U.S.-based banking and payment providers and continue to onboard new partners while upgrading our internal systems to create a more stable fiat platform and offer additional services,” a spokesperson for Binance.US told the WSJ.

Last month, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Binance along with its CEO and former top compliance executive, alleging that they were operating an "illegal" exchange and a "sham" compliance program. Since the lawsuit, investors withdrew $1.6 billion from Binance.

Binance's US arm struggles to find bank to take its customers' cash, Wall Street Journal reports | Reuters

Finally, whose idea was it to start a proxy war on Russia in Ukraine?

Boss of UK's largest insurance broker warns industry will go bust if it is forced to cover cost of claims arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine

April 10, 2023

The boss of the UK's largest insurance broker has warned the industry will go bust if it is forced to cover the cost of claims arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

David Howden, the boss of Howden Group, said the sector was 'not designed' to be a 'backstop' for the costs of war and if insurers paid out claims 'we'd all go bankrupt.' 

The comments came as the owners of around 500 commercial aircraft that were seized by Russia shortly after the outbreak of war prepared to sue several Lloyd's of London insurers after they refused to pay out around £8billion in claims.

Howden said their decision not to pay up was legitimate.

'Ultimately, war has never been something that insurance has been there to cover,' he told The Sunday Telegraph.

He added that there was 'not enough capital in the insurance market' to cover the impact of the conflict and if policies were expanded the Government would need to bail out bankrupt insurers.

Boss of UK's largest insurance broker warns industry will go bust if it is forced to cover cost of claims arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Wall St Week Ahead US inflation data to test market’s bets on future Fed easing

NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - A closely watched U.S. inflation report next week could help settle one of Wall Street’s most pressing questions: whether the market has correctly pegged the near-term trajectory for interest rates.

Following last month’s banking crisis, investors have become more convinced the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the second half to ward off an economic downturn. Such bets have pushed bond yields lower, supporting the giant tech and growth stocks that hold sway over broad equity indexes. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has gained 6.9% so far in 2023.

But the central bank’s more restrictive rate outlook sees borrowing costs remaining around current levels through 2023. That view could gain support if next week’s inflation reading shows a strong rise in consumer prices even after aggressive Fed rate hikes over the past year.

“If (CPI) comes in hot, investors will start to price interest rates closer to where the Fed is and likely pressure asset prices,” said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. The firm is recommending clients slightly underweight equities, expecting interest rate hikes to hit consumer spending and corporate profits.

U.S. employment data for March, released Friday, showed signs of persistent labor market tightness that could prompt the Fed to hike rates again next month.

Recession worries are mounting, with investors betting the tumult in the banking system sparked by the March collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will tighten credit conditions and hurt growth.

In the bond market, the Fed’s preferred recession indicator plunged to fresh lows in the past week, bolstering the case for those who believe the central bank will soon need to cut rates. The measure compares the current implied forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now with the current yield on a three-month Treasury bill.

Pricing in futures markets shows investors betting that central bank easing later this year will drop the fed funds rate from 4.75% to 5% currently to around 4.3% by year-end. Yet projections from Fed policymakers show that most expect no rate cuts until 2024.

"Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks," strategists at LPL Research said in a note earlier this week.

Bets on a more dovish Fed have boosted tech and growth stocks, whose future profits are discounted less when interest rates fall. The S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) has surged 6.7% since March 8, more than twice the gain for the overall index over that time.

Economists polled by Reuters expect March data, due April 12, to show the consumer price index climbed by 5.2% on an annual basis, down from 6% the prior month.

Markets will also watch first-quarter earnings, which start in the coming week with major banks including JPMorgan and Citigroup due on Friday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% in the first quarter from the year-ago period, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv showed.

More

Wall St Week Ahead US inflation data to test market’s bets on future Fed easing | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Switzerland Stops Recommending COVID-19 Vaccination

Apr 8 2023

Swiss authorities have stopped recommending COVID-19 vaccination, including for people who are designated at high risk from COVID-19.

 

Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health now says that “no COVID-19 vaccination is recommended for spring/summer 2023.”

 

People designated high risk are also not recommended to get a COVID-19 vaccine, authorities said.

 

They attributed the change to the number of citizens who have received a vaccine, recovered from COVID-19, or both received a vaccine and enjoy natural immunity from post-recovery protection.

 

“Nearly everyone in Switzerland has been vaccinated and/or contracted and recovered from COVID-19. Their immune system has therefore been exposed to the coronavirus. In spring/summer 2023, the virus will likely circulate less. The current virus variants also cause rather mild illness,” Swiss health officials said.

 

Seroprevalence data from mid-2022 showed that more than 98 percent of the Swiss population had antibodies against the COVID-19 virus, indicating that people had immunity from prior infection, vaccination, or both.

The Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus, which started circulating around the world in late 2021, causes less severe cases than its predecessor, Delta. Additionally, the available COVID-19 vaccines have performed increasingly worse against Omicron and its subvariants, providing little or even negative protection against infection and quickly waning shielding against severe disease.

Swiss authorities nodded to the short-lived protection as they noted that people designated at high risk from COVID-19 can still receive a vaccine, despite the lack of recommendation, after consultation with their doctor.

“Vaccination may be wise in individual cases, as it improves protection against developing severe COVID-19 for several months,” they said.

People at high risk include those aged 65 or older and pregnant women.

In cases where a doctor recommends a vaccine, a shot should be given at least six months after the last shot or at least six months after the last known COVID-19 infection.

Because the vaccines are no longer being recommended, they’re no longer covered by the government. Instead, people will have to pay a fee to get vaccinated.

More

Switzerland Stops Recommending COVID-19 Vaccination (theepochtimes.com)

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Tesla Opening Battery ‘Megafactory’ In China

April 10, 2023

Tesla plans to open a new “Megafactory” to manufacture massive batteries in Shanghai, China, the car company announced in a tweet on Sunday, deepening Tesla’s ties to the Chinese market despite previous criticism of its connections to the country.

Tesla said the factory will be capable of producing 10,000 “megapacks” a year—or large lithium battery storage products intended for power stations that the company says can power some 3,600 homes for one hour.

The company already has a Megafactory in Lathrop, Calif., that can produce the same number of megapacks.

 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a tweet the Shanghai factory will “supplement output of [the] Megapack factory in California.”

 

Tesla didn’t specify when the Shanghai-based factory will open, but Chinese state-run news outlet Xinhua says the factory will break ground later this year and open next year.

--- Key Background

China is a key market for Tesla, accounting for a large share of the company’s electric vehicle sales. Tesla has slashed prices for its cars in recent months, in part to better compete with rivals in China. But the company has faced scrutiny for its relationship with China, especially as U.S.-China tensions worsen. In January of last year, Tesla was criticized for opening a showroom in the Xinjiang region, an area of the country where reporters and watchdogs say the Chinese government has detained thousands of members of the mostly-Muslim Uyghur ethnic group, and other minority groups.

Both the Trump and Biden administrations accused China of committing acts of genocide in the area. Tesla’s move was denounced at the time by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who said it was “helping the Chinese Communist Party cover up genocide and slave labor.” It was also criticized by The Alliance for American Manufacturing, which called the decision “especially brazen,” and the the Council on American-Islamic Relations.

More

Tesla Opening Battery ‘Megafactory’ In China (msn.com)

 

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

 

No comments:

Post a Comment