Baltic Dry Index. 1560 +35 Brent Crude 85.01
Spot Gold 1992 US 2 Year Yield 3.82 +0.03
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 10/04/23 World 684,971,418
Deaths 6,837,727
People of the same trade seldom meet
together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a
conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices…. But
though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling
together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies, much less to
render them necessary.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
With many markets closed for the Easter Monday bank holiday, stock casino putters will be looking for direction from Asia and later today, the USA.
Away from the stock gamblers, the real world looks to be flirting with a real war breaking out over Taiwan. Meanwhile someone on Friday dumped a whole load of US spooks Top Secret documents on the internet, showing Uncle Sam spying on friend and foe alike and all but a combatant in the Ukraine-Russian war in Europe.
Ukraine, seems to be running out of munitions, seems to be about to launch its Spring offensive and about to attack the Crimea peninsula, if any of the leaks and rumours are believable, though we might all have to wait until the ground starts to dry out after the Spring rains.
Asia markets trade mostly higher as investors
come back from long weekend
UPDATED MON, APR 10 2023 12:14 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were mostly higher on Monday as some investors returned from a long
Easter weekend.
South Korea’s Kospi was 1.05%
higher, leading gains in the region, and the Kosdaq index also gained 0.54%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was
0.45% higher, with the Topix up 0.55%.
In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was
up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen
Component was marginally lower.
Australian and Hong Kong markets
remained closed due to a four-day Easter holiday till Monday.
India will release its fiscal
deficit figures for March, as well as its March trade data, while Indonesia’s
retail sales for February will also be out.
Last week, U.S. stocks wrapped up a short
trading week on Thursday with all three major indexes posting gains.
The S&P 500 rose
0.36%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite outperformed with a 0.76% gain, boosted by a rise in
Alphabet and Microsoft shares.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched
up marginally 2.57 points higher to 33,485.29 after losing more than 150 points
at its session low.
Asia
markets trade mostly higher as investors come back from long weekend (cnbc.com)
Stock futures rise slightly ahead of key
inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season: Live updates
UPDATED SUN, APR 9 2023 7:02 PM EDT
U.S equity
futures rose slightly Sunday evening as investors looked ahead to key inflation
data and the start of first-quarter earnings season.
Futures tied to the broad
market S&P 500 rose
0.2% and Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures edged
up 62 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures
were flat.
On Thursday, the major averages
rose to end a holiday-shortened trading week. However, only the Dow notched
a weekly gain of 0.6% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted
weekly losses, ending lower by 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively.
The market was volatile as
economic data showed signs of a weakening labor market. The March jobs report
on Friday showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation, however, which pushed
stock futures and Treasury yields higher. The New York Stock
Exchange was closed for Good Friday.
Nonfarm
payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, about in line with the
Dow Jones estimate of 238,000, the Labor Department reported. The unemployment
fell to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold from the previous month
at 3.6%.
The data is
consistent with expectations of a slow-moving recession unfolding in the U.S. –
one that doesn’t point to the immediate resolution of inflation concerns,
according to Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Private Wealth at
Glenmede.
“As such, the odds
of another quarter-point rate hike in May should go higher as the data does not
appear to justify a Fed pause,” he added.
Yung-Yu Ma, chief
investment strategist at BMO, said the level of job creation in March “reflects
a considerable buffer in the economy to help cushion the impact of an economic
slowdown.”
“The report is
directionally favorable, but not enough to shift the Fed’s thinking,” he added.
More
Stock futures rise slightly ahead of key inflation data: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Up next, in cryptoland, bye, bye Binance?
Binance's
US arm struggles to find bank to take its customers' cash, Wall Street Journal
reports
April
8, 2023 4:04 PM GMT+1
April 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. arm of
cryptocurrency exchange Binance is struggling to find a bank to handle its
customers' cash after the failure of Signature Bank (SBNY.PK) last
month, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people familiar
with the matter.
Previously, the deposits were sent to
either Signature Bank or Silvergate Capital Corp (SI.N), both
seen as crypto-friendly banks. However, after both failed, the exchange is rushing
to find a new banking partner, according to the report.
Binance.US is using at least one
intermediary to store funds, the report said, adding that since the money is
being held by a third party, it can slow down sending and moving funds.
The company has unsuccessfully tried to
establish relationships with Cross River Bank and Customers Bancorp Inc (CUBI.N),
the report said, adding that banks are reluctant due to concerns over
regulatory risk.
All three companies did not immediately
respond to a Reuters' request for comment outside normal business hours.
“We work with multiple U.S.-based
banking and payment providers and continue to onboard new partners while
upgrading our internal systems to create a more stable fiat platform and offer
additional services,” a spokesperson for Binance.US told the WSJ.
Last month, the U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Binance along with its CEO and former top
compliance executive, alleging that they were operating an "illegal"
exchange and a "sham" compliance program. Since the lawsuit,
investors withdrew
$1.6 billion from Binance.
Finally, whose idea was it to start a proxy
war on Russia in Ukraine?
Boss of UK's largest
insurance broker warns industry will go bust if it is forced to cover cost of
claims arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine
April 10, 2023
The boss of the UK's largest insurance broker has warned the industry
will go bust if it is forced to cover the cost of claims arising from Russia's
invasion of Ukraine.
David Howden, the boss of Howden Group, said the sector was 'not
designed' to be a 'backstop' for the costs of war and if insurers paid out
claims 'we'd all go bankrupt.'
The comments came as the owners of
around 500 commercial aircraft that were seized by Russia shortly after the
outbreak of war prepared to sue several Lloyd's of London insurers after they
refused to pay out around £8billion in claims.
Howden said their decision not to pay
up was legitimate.
'Ultimately, war has never been
something that insurance has been there to cover,' he told The Sunday
Telegraph.
He added that there was 'not enough
capital in the insurance market' to cover the impact of the conflict and if
policies were expanded the Government would need to bail out bankrupt insurers.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Wall
St Week Ahead US inflation data to test market’s bets on future Fed easing
April
8, 2023 3:38 AM GMT+1
NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - A closely
watched U.S. inflation report next week could help settle one of Wall Street’s
most pressing questions: whether the market has correctly pegged the near-term
trajectory for interest rates.
Following last month’s banking crisis,
investors have become more convinced the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the
second half to ward off an economic downturn. Such bets have pushed bond yields
lower, supporting the giant tech and growth stocks that hold sway over broad
equity indexes. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has
gained 6.9% so far in 2023.
But the central bank’s more restrictive
rate outlook sees borrowing costs remaining around current levels through 2023.
That view could gain support if next week’s inflation reading shows a strong
rise in consumer prices even after aggressive Fed rate hikes over the past
year.
“If (CPI) comes in hot, investors will
start to price interest rates closer to where the Fed is and likely pressure
asset prices,” said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank
Wealth Management. The firm is recommending clients slightly underweight
equities, expecting interest rate hikes to hit consumer spending and corporate
profits.
U.S. employment data for March,
released Friday, showed signs of persistent labor market tightness that could
prompt the Fed to hike rates again next month.
Recession worries are mounting, with
investors betting the tumult in the banking system sparked by the March
collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will tighten credit conditions and hurt growth.
In the bond market, the Fed’s preferred
recession indicator plunged to fresh lows in the past week, bolstering
the case for those who believe the central bank will soon need to cut rates.
The measure compares the current implied forward rate on Treasury bills 18
months from now with the current yield on a three-month Treasury bill.
Pricing in futures markets shows
investors betting that central bank easing later this year will drop the fed
funds rate from 4.75% to 5% currently to around 4.3% by year-end. Yet
projections from Fed policymakers show that most expect no rate cuts until
2024.
"Financial markets and the Federal
Reserve are reading from two different playbooks," strategists at LPL
Research said in a note earlier this week.
Bets on a more dovish Fed have boosted
tech and growth stocks, whose future profits are discounted less when interest
rates fall. The S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) has
surged 6.7% since March 8, more than twice the gain for the overall index over
that time.
Economists polled by Reuters expect
March data, due April 12, to show the consumer price index climbed by 5.2% on
an annual basis, down from 6% the prior month.
Markets will also watch first-quarter
earnings, which start in the coming week with major banks including JPMorgan
and Citigroup due on Friday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2%
in the first quarter from the year-ago period, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv
showed.
More
Wall St Week Ahead US inflation data to test market’s bets on future Fed easing | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Switzerland Stops Recommending
COVID-19 Vaccination
Apr 8 2023
Swiss authorities have stopped
recommending COVID-19 vaccination, including for people who are designated at
high risk from COVID-19.
Switzerland’s Federal Office
of Public Health now says that “no COVID-19 vaccination is recommended
for spring/summer 2023.”
People designated high risk are
also not recommended to get a COVID-19 vaccine, authorities said.
They attributed the change to the
number of citizens who have received a vaccine, recovered from COVID-19, or
both received a vaccine and enjoy natural immunity from post-recovery
protection.
“Nearly everyone in Switzerland
has been vaccinated and/or contracted and recovered from COVID-19. Their immune
system has therefore been exposed to the coronavirus. In spring/summer 2023,
the virus will likely circulate less. The current virus variants also cause
rather mild illness,” Swiss health officials said.
Seroprevalence data from mid-2022
showed that more than 98 percent of the Swiss population had antibodies against
the COVID-19 virus, indicating that people had immunity from prior infection,
vaccination, or both.
The Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus, which started circulating around the world in late 2021, causes less severe cases than its predecessor, Delta. Additionally, the available COVID-19 vaccines have performed increasingly worse against Omicron and its subvariants, providing little or even negative protection against infection and quickly waning shielding against severe disease.
Swiss authorities nodded to the short-lived protection as they noted that people designated at high risk from COVID-19 can still receive a vaccine, despite the lack of recommendation, after consultation with their doctor.
“Vaccination may be wise in individual cases, as it improves protection against developing severe COVID-19 for several months,” they said.
People at high risk include those aged 65 or older and pregnant women.
In cases where a doctor recommends a vaccine, a shot should be given at least six months after the last shot or at least six months after the last known COVID-19 infection.
Because the vaccines are no longer being recommended, they’re no longer
covered by the government. Instead, people will have to pay a fee to get
vaccinated.
More
Switzerland Stops Recommending COVID-19 Vaccination
(theepochtimes.com)
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource
centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Tesla Opening Battery
‘Megafactory’ In China
April 10, 2023
Tesla plans to open a new “Megafactory” to
manufacture massive batteries in Shanghai, China, the car company announced in
a tweet on Sunday, deepening Tesla’s ties to the Chinese market despite
previous criticism of its connections to the country.
Tesla said
the factory will be capable of producing 10,000 “megapacks” a year—or large
lithium battery storage products intended for power stations that the company
says can power some 3,600 homes for one hour.
The company already has a Megafactory in Lathrop, Calif.,
that can produce the same number of megapacks.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a tweet the
Shanghai factory will “supplement output of [the] Megapack factory in
California.”
Tesla didn’t specify when the Shanghai-based factory will
open, but Chinese state-run news outlet Xinhua says the factory will break
ground later this year and open next year.
--- Key Background
China is a key market for Tesla, accounting for a large share of the company’s electric vehicle sales.
Tesla has slashed prices for its cars in recent months, in part to better compete with rivals in China. But the company has
faced scrutiny for its relationship with China, especially as U.S.-China
tensions worsen. In January of last year, Tesla was criticized for opening a
showroom in the Xinjiang region, an area of the country where reporters and
watchdogs say the Chinese government has detained thousands of members of the
mostly-Muslim Uyghur ethnic group, and other minority groups.
Both the
Trump and Biden administrations accused China of committing acts of genocide in
the area. Tesla’s move was denounced at the time by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.),
who said it was “helping the Chinese Communist Party cover up genocide and
slave labor.” It was also criticized by The Alliance for American
Manufacturing, which called the decision “especially brazen,” and the the
Council on American-Islamic Relations.
More
Tesla
Opening Battery ‘Megafactory’ In China (msn.com)
The statesman who should attempt to
direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would
not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an
authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to
no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in
the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to
exercise it.
Adam Smith, The
Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
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