Baltic Dry Index. 1510 -07 Brent Crude 81.19
Spot Gold 1996 US 2 Year Yield 3.86 -0.26
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 26/04/23 World 686,647,374
Deaths 6,860,779
The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.
Jesse Livermore.
In the stock casinos, a minor selloff, more sign of recession arriving, or a grizzly bear waking up after a winter’s sleep? Why is the US Treasury Secretary talking up a US default?
Has the US banking crisis just gotten second wind?
Dare the US central bank raise its key interest rate next week?
Wise people living in a coastal flood plain evacuate well before a hurricane hits. With a recession on its way for later in the summer, (or a US default as early as June,) it’s time to hit the exit roads before panic and gridlock sets in.
Getting out early always trumps getting
carried out last.
Asia markets
mixed as Wall Street banking fears reignite
UPDATED TUE, APR 25 2023 11:51 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets were trading mixed on Wednesday after banking fears were reignited on
Wall Street.
Shares of First Republic Bank tumbled
more than 49% after the regional bank posted its latest
quarterly results, saying late Monday that deposits dropped 40% to $104.5
billion in
the first quarter but have since stabilized.
Investors were also watching
Australia’s inflation numbers for the first quarter of 2023, which slowed to 7%
year-on-year, down from a 23-year high of 7.8% the previous quarter. The S&P/ASX 200 was
down marginally.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell
0.66%, and the Topix dropped 0.86%.
South Korea’s Kospi rose above
the flatline, while the Kosdaq was 0.18% down after the country’s consumer
sentiment index for April rose to 95.1, compared to 92 in March.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed
0.62% up, while the Hang Seng Tech index rose 1.36%.
Mainland Chinese markets were
mixed, with the Shenzhen
Component up 0.23%, but the Shanghai Composite down
0.31%.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.02%, while the S&P 500 finished 1.58% lower. The Nasdaq Composite saw the largest loss as it dropped 1.98%.
Asia
markets mixed as Wall Street banking fears reignite (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
rise Tuesday night after Microsoft, Alphabet post earnings beats: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, APR 25 2023 7:05 PM EDT
U.S. stock futures rose Tuesday evening as Big
Tech earnings began to roll out, led by Alphabet and Microsoft.
Futures tied
to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 47 points or 0.1%. S&P 500
futures added
0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures
gained 1.2%.
Microsoft beat
Wall Street’s expectations on the top and bottom lines in its
latest quarter. The company also posted a big jump in revenue from its
Intelligent Cloud business segment. Shares gained 8%. Google parent Alphabet posted
better-than-anticipated revenue, according to Refinitiv, and
reported a profit in its cloud business for the first time on record. Shares
added more than 2%.
“We’re still early in this
season, but it seems like Wall Street generally underestimated corporate
America once again,” said Callie Cox, an analyst at investment company eToro.
“Company-level information could be easing investors’ fears on how corporate
America is handling slowing growth and rising costs, especially given the focus
on the job market.”
In regular
trading Tuesday, the Dow fell about 344
points, or 1%. The S&P
500 finished 1.6% lower and the Nasdaq Composite dropped
nearly 2%.
First Republic Bank said late
Monday that its deposits dropped 40% to $104.5 billion in the first quarter.
This reignited concerns about the broader banking sector and pressured the
major averages Tuesday. Cox called the instance “an exception.”
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
US
default on debt would trigger 'economic catastrophe,' Yellen says
April
25, 2023 6:59 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, April
25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday warned that
failure by Congress to raise the government's debt ceiling - and the resulting
default - would trigger an "economic catastrophe" that would send
interest rates higher for years to come.
Yellen,
in remarks prepared for a Washington event with business executives from
California, said a default on U.S. debt would result in job losses, while
driving household payments on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards higher.
She said it was a
"basic responsibility" of Congress to increase or suspend the $31.4
trillion borrowing cap, warning that a default would threaten the economic
progress that the United States has made since the COVID-19 pandemic.
"A
default on our debt would produce an economic and financial catastrophe,"
Yellen told Sacramento Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce members. "A
default would raise the cost of borrowing into perpetuity. Future investments
would become substantially more costly."
If
the debt ceiling is not raised, U.S. businesses will face deteriorating credit
markets, and the government will likely be unable to issue payments to military
families and seniors who rely on Social Security, she said.
More
US
default on debt would trigger 'economic catastrophe,' Yellen says | Reuters
US consumer confidence hits nine-month low; housing market
bottoming out
April
25, 2023 8:14 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, April
25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April as
worries about the future mounted, further heightening the risk that the economy
could fall into recession this year.
The
consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday also suggested
that Americans were getting ready to hunker down as dark clouds gather, with
the share of them planning to buy major household appliances over the next six
months falling to the lowest level since 2011.
Vacations were
also not in the cards for many. Consumers have shown resilience despite high
inflation and a rise in interest rates, keeping the economy afloat, thanks to a
strong labor market.
The
tide could be turning as the effects of the Federal Reserve's fastest rate
hiking campaign since the 1980s to tame inflation begin to have a broader
impact. Consumers are also growing more sensitive to higher prices.
"Rates
have been on the rise for over a year, and we're seeing the effects," said
Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
"Despite a still-tight jobs market, which is still a good thing, sticky
inflation does have its consequences."
The Conference
Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3, the lowest reading
since July 2022, from 104.0 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had expected
the index to be unchanged at 104.0 in April.
The
drop reflected a deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years and
households earning $50,000 and over annually, suggesting a broadening in
concerns about the economy beyond low income households.
More
US
consumer confidence hits nine-month low; housing market bottoming out | Reuters
Finally, where there’s a will and all that.
Global refinery margins lose steam as Russian oil finds new outlets
April
25, 2023
(Reuters) -
Global diesel margins have slumped by about half since February, dragging on refiners'
profits, as Russian exports continue despite sanctions, helping output from
China and India reach all-time highs in March.
Western
sanctions and price caps on Russian crude and oil products introduced in
December and February had been expected to tighten oil supplies globally.
However,
Russia continues to ship out low-cost oil, enabling its biggest clients - India
and China - to boost their refining output and exports. Russian oil products,
meanwhile, are being sent in high volumes to oil hubs to be stored and
re-exported worldwide.
In addition,
several new refining complexes are coming online this year in the Middle East
and China, churning out more oil products for export and further depressing
refining margins.
India's
Reliance Industries, operator of the world's largest refining complex, said in
its earnings call on Friday gasoil margins dropped as Russian diesel supplies
have remained firm, while an unusually mild winter in Europe led to a build-up
in inventories.
Demand for
gasoil to replace natural gas in power generation has also fallen after spot
liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices eased from all-time highs, the company said.
Benchmark European diesel barge refining margins drifted to
their lowest since February 2022 last week to about $13.70 a barrel, according
to Reuters assessments, pressured by high import volumes and the restart of
French refineries after labour-related strikes.
Similarly,
Asian gasoil margins have fallen by 31% in April to the lowest since January
2022 at about $14 a barrel last week because of high inventories and as the
arbitrage window to Europe has been shut for months.
Profit on
processing a barrel of Brent crude at a typical European refinery has plunged
by about 71% to the lowest since January last year to $3.56 a barrel in April,
while refining profit margins in Asia are down by around 57% to $2.54 a barrel
in the month.
More
Global refinery
margins lose steam as Russian oil finds new outlets (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The banking
crisis is having a slow-burn impact on the economy
A banking crisis that erupted less than two months
ago now appears to be less a major broadside to the U.S. economy than a slow
bleed that will seep its way through and act as a potential catalyst for a
much-anticipated recession later this year.
As banks report the impact that a
run on deposits has had on their operations, the picture is a mixed one: Larger
institutions like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America sustained
far less of a hit, while smaller counterparts such as First Republic face
a much tougher slog and a fight for survival.
That means the money pipeline to Wall Street remains mostly alive
and well while the situation on Main Street is much more in flux.
“The small banks are going to be lending less.
That’s a credit hit on Middle America, on Main Street,” said Steven Blitz,
chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “That’s negative for growth.”
How negative will come to light
both in the approaching days and months months as data flows through.
First Republic, a regional lender
seen as a bellwether for how hard the deposit crunch will hit the sector, posted
earnings that beat expectations but reflected a struggling
company otherwise.
Bank earnings largely have been
decent for the first quarter, but the sector’s future is uncertain. Stocks have
been under pressure, with the SPDR S&P Bank ETF
(KBE) off more than 3% in Tuesday afternoon trading.
More
The
banking crisis is having a slow-burn impact on the economy (cnbc.com)
UK firms issue more
profit warnings amid ‘recession-like’ climate
April
24, 2023
The number of profit warnings issued by UK-listed companies has grown
this year as businesses battle against “recession-like” conditions, new figures
show.
Firms listed on UK
stock markets issued 75 alerts over profits between January and March – meaning
they told investors to expect lower full-year earnings than initially thought.
It marked the highest first-quarter total since the early pandemic in
2020, when 305 were issued, according to the report by consultants
EY-Parthenon.
Of the 31 companies that have issued three warnings since the start of
2022, around nine have since delisted from their stock exchange or are in the
process of being sold, typically having become insolvent.
This was greater than the average market drop-out rate, EY-Parthenon
said.
Economic forecasts may have seen some improvement in recent months;
however, the extraordinary strength of headwinds over the last two years has
left some businesses facing recession-like conditions
Moreover, more than a third of the profit warnings cited delayed,
reviewed or cancelled contracts, up from a fifth in the same period last year.
It suggests economic uncertainty has had a bigger impact on firms’
ability to spend and invest for the future, as they faced a reduction in demand
and consumer spending.
More
UK firms issue more profit warnings amid ‘recession-like’ climate (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Study
identifies an unknown SARS-CoV-2 lineage on three mink farms in Poland
April 24, 2023
In a recent study published in the Eurosurveillance Journal, researchers detected a cryptic severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage on mink farms in
Poland.
Background
During the coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, mink production took a major hit worldwide,
especially after reports of human-to-animal SARS-CoV-2 transmission and reverse
spillover.
However, unlike Denmark and
the Netherlands, where they culled minks, Poland did not. Accordingly, Poland
emerged as the largest mink producer in Europe.
However, Poland's number of
mink farms decreased dramatically, from 350 to 166, between 2019 and 2023.
Issues with pelt import and declining demand for fur worldwide drove this
decline.
About the study
In Poland, they began testing
all mink farms using a novel scheme from December 2021 onwards to detect
SARS-CoV-2 in animals when farm animals began to show disease symptoms, started
dying, or workers tested COVID-19-positive.
They collected oropharyngeal
swabs for real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)
assays from three farms (Farms 14, 16, & 17) located in a lowland
agricultural area but in an 8 km range.
The researchers identified
the first positive farm in January 2021 and 13 more farms by July 2022. Between
September 2022 and January 2023, they identified three more positive mink
farms, Farms 14, 16, and 17.
The team collected samples to
perform whole genome sequencing (WGS), the sample size of which detected
between 50% and 5% prevalence, respectively, with 95% confidence. WGS helped
the researchers gather data on changes in SARS-CoV-2 genomes detected in minks.
Further, the researchers
tried to locate potential sources of SARS-CoV-2 entry into minks. So, they
performed interviews and site visits per the procedure described in the Sikkema
et al. study. The team could not do serological investigations; thus, they had
no clue whether minks that tested positive (in this study) were ever-infected
in the past.
Results
The researchers identified 14
SARS-CoV-2-positive mink farms, where four types of SARS-CoV-2 variants
belonging to eight Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak (PANGO)
lineages caused infections. Further, the researchers detected a novel, cryptic
SARS-CoV-2 lineage in a short duration of three months on two mink farms in
close geographical proximity.
Phylogenetic analyses
revealed that viruses from both mink farms formed a cluster closely linked to
B.1.1.307 virus genome sequences retrieved from this Polish region and
different parts of Europe nearly two years ago from human COVID-19 cases;
however, with >40 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).
The viruses detected on mink
farms were nearly identical, but with several mutations not found in the
Wuhan-Hu1 strain and human B.1.1.307 SARS-CoV-2, including F486L and N501T in
the spike (S), which suggested viral evolution in minks.
Other mutations were amino
acid substitutions and deletions at F486L, N501T, W64L, T572I, and S929I
positions and positions 140–143, respectively.
Negative RT-PCR test results
for farm workers and owners' families ruled out the possibility of a chronic
viral shedder who introduced SARS-CoV-2 to mink. An undetermined animal source
likely introduced the virus into minks.
On all three farms where
minks tested SARS-CoV-2-positive, minks might have come in contact with cats or
other wild carnivores, who likely served as intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2.
More
Study identifies
an unknown SARS-CoV-2 lineage on three mink farms in Poland (news-medical.net)
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
'World first' solar array at sea to be built at
Shell-led offshore wind farm off the Netherlands
Floating panels developed by Oceans of Energy to be
installed around wind turbines in landmark project at 'high wave' site off
Egmond aan Zee
April 25, 2023
The first-ever
'high wave' solar farm at sea will be built off the Netherlands at the
Hollandse Kust Noord (HKN) offshore wind farm, following finalization of a deal
between Shell-Eneco consortium CrossWind and technology developer Oceans of
Energy.
The
“megawatt-scale” floating array, expected to be operational by 2025 at the
759MW wind power developement off Egmond aan Zee, marks a key stride forward
for the technology, which has now moved from installations on water reservoirs
and inland lakes to ultra-harsh environment offshore sites.
With offshore solar
added to offshore wind it is possible to also produce energy on sunny but less
windy days and hence increase the utilization of the offshore power grid
infrastructure,” said Allard van Hoeken, CEO of Oceans of Energy.
“The solar panels
will be situated in-between the offshore wind turbines, an efficient way of
sharing the sea space. CrossWind's Hollandse Kust Noord project is an
innovative offshore wind park that will use cutting-edge technologies and
engineering solutions to improve the flexibility of offshore wind farms.”
Maria Kalogera,
Innovations Manager of CrossWind, said: “Offshore floating solar is an exciting
area of renewable energy development that is poised to play an important role
in the energy transition. This project marks a significant milestone for our
CrossWind innovations team as we continue to push on our commitment to create
better energy solutions for the future.”
The HKN offshore solar project claims a number of ‘firsts’,
including the maiden outing for a combination of battery storage and round-trip
green hydrogen production from offshore renewables at megawatt scale.
Hoeken added:“Theperformance of our system will be key for the
success of the innovativel part of the offshore wind farm. This is a large
responsibility as HKN will function as an example for combined offshore wind
and solar farms in the future.”
Oceans of Energy in 2019 piloted the wave-riding technology with
its 0.5MW Zon-op-Zee (Solar-at-Sea) demonstrator, which was engineered to use
the sea “directly as support, like a waterlily resting on the water surface”.
The array regularly withstood heavy storms, with waves as high as 10 metres during
the Ciara bomb cyclone, during its first years of operation.
There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that
is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being
in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at
all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must
trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and
selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent
play.
Jesse Livermore.
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