Baltic Dry Index. 1435 -28 Brent Crude 86.31
Spot Gold 2042 U S 2 Year Yield 4.08 +0.12
The BBC, taxing poor people in Britain to pay astronomical sums to rich people, who then insult their British values and views.
In
the gambling stock casinos, Great Expectations of boom times to come as the US Pied
Piper Fed leads the global central bankster rats into a great global interest
rate reversal. I wonder what happened to the rats?
Well
maybe, but if that happens, get ready for double digit inflation to become the
norm as the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money enters a decade of mounting death
throes.
Get
long fully paid up physical gold and silver held safely outside of the
increasingly dodgy banks and well away from the larcenous reach of Uncle Sam
and John Bull.
Dow sheds more than 100 points Friday, but notches
fourth straight positive week: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, APR 14 2023 5:37 PM EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Friday,
but notched a positive week, as investors assessed a weak retail sales report
that dented enthusiasm around a stronger-than-expected start to corporate
earnings.
The 30-stock Dow dropped
143.22 points, or about 0.42%, to 33,886.47. The S&P 500 fell
0.21% to 4,137.64. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite slid
0.35% to 12,123.47.
The Dow, however, notched its
fourth-straight positive week, rising 1.2%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq,
meanwhile, nabbed their fourth positive week in five. The broad-market index
added 0.79% for the week, while the Nasdaq ticked higher by 0.29%.
Advance retail sales in March showed consumer
spending fell twice as much as expected. Retail sales declined by 1%
last month, more than the 0.5% drop expected by economists polled by Dow Jones,
in part because consumers paid less for fuel.
“Retail sales came in weaker than
expected, but a lot of the miss had to do with lower gas prices, which all
things being equal is a slight positive for spending,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli,
chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“Inflation has been coming down
as gas prices have been coming down, but that can reverse in an instant, which
would drive the headline numbers higher. What is more concerning is that core
(which excludes food and gas prices) has been stubbornly high – and where we believe
the risks to higher-rates-for-longer lie,” Zaccarelli added.
The disappointing retail sales
data offset excitement around strong corporate earnings. JPMorgan Chase reported record
revenue that beat analysts’ expectations, with the stock rising
more than 7%. Wells Fargo shares
briefly rose as much as 2.1% after the bank reported
growing profits, before closing about flat. These were the first
bank earnings since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last
month.
---- Meanwhile, Boeing closed
lower by more than 5%. On Thursday, the aircraft maker warned of delivery
delays for some of its 737 Max planes.
Expectations for this earnings
season are downbeat. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect S&P 500 earnings
fell more than 5% in the first quarter. That forecast comes as companies deal
with persistent inflation and higher rates.
“The bar has never been set
lower,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. “My guess
is with consensus expectations for the S&P 500 to show earnings that are
down some 5%, that may well be overstating what we actually find out.”
“I think that what’s going to be
super important is the kind of guidance we get, and how confident that corporations
will be in guiding for the next three quarters in the face of what likely will
be a slower economy.”
More
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Sadly, back in the real world, more trouble is
fast piling up.
Fears mount that Europe’s commercial real
estate sector could be the next to fall
Concerns are mounting around the health of Europe’s
commercial real estate market, with some investors questioning whether it could
be the next sector to implode following last month’s banking crisis.
Higher interest rates have increased the cost of
borrowing and depressed valuations in the property sector, which in recent
years reigned supreme amid low bond yields.
Meanwhile, the collapse in
March of U.S.-based Silicon Valley
Bank and the later emergency rescue of Credit Suisse prompted fears of a so-called doom loop, in which a
potential bank run could trigger a property sector downturn.
The European Central Bank earlier this month
warned of “clear signs of vulnerability” in the property sector, citing
“declining market liquidity and price corrections” as reasons for the
uncertainty, and calling for new curbs on commercial property funds to
reduce the risks of an illiquidity crisis.
Already in
February, European funds invested directly in real estate recorded outflows of
£172 million ($215.4 million), according to Morningstar Direct data — a sharp
contrast from the inflows of almost £300 million seen in January.
Analysts at Citi
now see European real estate stocks falling by 20%-40% between 2023 and 2024 as
the impact of higher interest rates plays out. In a worst-case scenario, the
higher-risk commercial real estate sector could plummet 50% by next year, the
bank said.
“Something I would not overlook is a crisis in real estate, both for private people and for commercial real estate, where we see a downward pressure both in the United States and in Europe,” Pierre Gramegna, managing director of the European Stability Mechanism, told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche in Washington, D.C. Friday.
A reckoning for office space
The office segment
— a major component of the commercial real estate market — has emerged as
central to potential downturn fears given wider shifts toward remote or hybrid
working patterns following the
Covid pandemic.
More
Fears
mount European commercial real estate could be the next to blow (cnbc.com)
Storm clouds gathering over US after banking crisis, JP
Morgan and Citi chiefs warn
April 14, 2023
The British boss of
Citigroup has warned that the US will fall into recession later this year amid
a turbulent outlook for the financial sector.
Jane Fraser, chief
executive of the Wall Street giant, told investors that the US will enter into
a shallow recession after JP Morgan forecast “storm clouds” gathering in the
wake of the recent banking crisis.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JP Morgan, issued
the warning even as the lender was boosted by depositors pulling funds from
smaller rivals.
He said: “The storm clouds that we have been
monitoring for the past year remain on the horizon, and the banking industry
turmoil adds to these risks.”
It came after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank
(SVB) and the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse last month sent shockwaves
through the global banking industry.
However, first quarter results reported by JP
Morgan on Friday showed that the bank benefited from the crisis, with deposits
jumping by $37bn (£29.7bn) during the period amid a flight to safety.
---- The sharp rise in deposits at the bank suggests
that customers have flocked to JPMorgan amid concerns about the health of
smaller regional banks in the US following SVB’s failure.
A number of regional lenders struggled to arrest a
wave of customer withdrawals, forcing US authorities to intervene amid fears of
contagion. Several Wall Street giants, including JP Morgan, also provided a
$30bn lifeline to prop up California’s First Republic.
In his annual letter to investors earlier this
month, Mr Dimon said: “While it is true that this bank crisis ‘benefited’
larger banks due to the inflow of deposits they received from smaller
institutions, the notion that this meltdown was good for them in any way is
absurd.”
Citigroup also earned more from borrowers paying higher
interest on loans, as net income rose 7pc to $4.6bn for the three months to
March 31, it reported on Friday.
The warnings come days after Andrew Bailey, the
Governor of the Bank of England, played down the risks of a system-wide banking
crisis.
More
Storm
clouds gathering over US after banking crisis, JP Morgan and Citi chiefs warn
(msn.com)
Jamie Dimon issues warning on rates: ‘It will
undress problems in the economy’
Investors and businesses should plan for interest
rates to remain higher for longer than currently expected by the market,
according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.
The world saw what happened last
month when higher rates and a sudden deposit run exposed bad management at Silicon
Valley Bank. Earlier, rising rates and a surging dollar sparked
a meltdown in U.K. sovereign debt last September, Dimon
reminded analysts Friday during a conference call.
“People need to be prepared for the potential of higher rates for
longer,” Dimon said on the call.
“If and when that happens, it will undress
problems in the economy for those who are too exposed to floating rates, for
those who are too exposed to refi risk,” he said, referring to loans that reset
at market rates. “Those exposures will be in multiple parts of the economy.”
Higher rates jammed
up swaths of the economy this year, from regional bankers who had bet on low
rates to consumers who can no longer afford mortgages or credit card debt. The
Federal Reserve has pushed its core rate higher by roughly 5 full percentage
points in the past year as it sought to subdue stubbornly high inflation.
Ironically, it was the recent regional banking crisis that sparked wagers that an economic slowdown would force the Fed to pivot and cut rates later this year. That assumption has helped underpin stock levels in recent weeks on the hope for a return to a lower-rate environment.
More bank failures?
For its part, the
biggest U.S. bank by assets studies how benchmark rates closer to 6% would
impact the company, Dimon said. That flies against market assumptions that the
Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in the back half of this year,
reaching below
4% by January.
Dimon said he told “all” his bank’s clients to
prepare for the risk of higher rates.
“Now would be the
time to fix it,” he said. “Do not put yourself in a position where that risk is
excessive for your company, your business, your investment pools, etc.”
Higher rates would put additional pressure on
mid-sized banks like First Republic that
were damaged in last month’s tumult; the value of their bond holdings moves
lower as rates rise. First Republic is being advised by JPMorgan and Lazard.
While he expects regional banks to
post “pretty good numbers” next week, there is the risk of “additional bank
failures,” Dimon said.
Jamie
Dimon warning on rates: 'It will undress problems in the economy’ (cnbc.com)
Finally,
wither food price inflation in 2023? Iffy at best, great social disorder at
worst.
Global Food Roundup: Pricey Sugar and Grain Deal Fears
14 April 2023 at 12:00 BST
From
Argentina’s epic drought to sugar’s spike, here’s a snapshot of
key food stories from around the world:
Sugar Rush
It’s been a pretty volatile time for breakfast
ingredients lately. This week, orange juice futures reached a record, arabica
coffee is near a six-month high, while data showed US egg costs tumbled
the most in 36 years in March.
And sugar, consumed in
everything from chocolate to fizzy drinks and baked products, is getting a
lot of attention too. Prices have hit the highest in more than a
decade, raising costs for the industry and keeping up pressure on global food
inflation. Global supplies are becoming tighter,
partly because India, one of the top shippers, is
limiting exports after rains hurt the crop and as it diverts
more cane to make biofuel.
The jump in sugar prices
has already worsened the impact of inflation in
Britain with shoppers paying more for baked goods, sweets and fizzy
drinks.
Grains Uncertainty
Worries about the future of the
Ukraine grain-export deal are mounting, with Russia indicating it may quit
the initiative if its issues aren’t resolved by mid-May. “The
prospects are not that good” for a deal extension, Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this week.
The agreement also faced a
hiccup this week after inspections of ships headed to and from ports covered by
the deal were halted Tuesday. While activity resumed on Wednesday, it
underscores uncertainty over the deal that has been crucial for bringing down
global food-commodity costs from records reached after Russia’s invasion.
---- Epic drought | Argentina’s record drought is worsening
inflation and sending the peso to new lows, undermining the ruling party ahead
of October presidential elections. Millions of acres of corn, wheat and
soy — Argentina’s biggest exports and a key driver of jobs and tax revenue —
will be ruined this year, sapping some $19 billion of inflows, according to
one estimate. The failed crops are likely to trigger economic effects
far beyond Argentina, from the world’s feedlots, where pigs eat more soy from
Argentina than any other country, to the grain-trading markets of Chicago. (Read full story here.)
More
Supply Chain Latest: Soaring Sugar Prices and Grain
Deal Fears - Bloomberg
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
ECB needs more
rate hikes and faster balance sheet cuts, Wunsch says
April
14, 2023 6:02 AM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters)
- The European Central Bank should speed up the reduction of its balance sheet
and could stop reinvesting cash from debt maturing in its largest bond buying
scheme to complement further interest rate hikes, Belgian policymaker Pierre
Wunsch said.
Fighting stubborn inflation,
the ECB has raised rates at its fastest pace on record and has been shrinking
its bloated balance sheet, all in the hope that more expensive borrowing will
thwart demand and curb inflation.
"We need to do more on
quantitative tightening," Wunsch, a member of the ECB's Governing Council,
told Reuters on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in
Washington. "We could do a full stop of reinvestments this year and even
with that, it will take years to run down the portfolio."
The ECB is now allowing 15
billion euros worth of debt per month to expire in its 3.2 trillion euro Asset
Purchase Programme, and Wunsch argued that this process has gone well so far.
"The market has reacted
very well, and our balance sheet is still too big," he said.
Wunsch, among the first last
year to recognise Europe's inflation problem, also said the ECB needed to keep
raising interest rates and the market's expectation for another 75 basis points
of increases was "reasonable," but expectations of a rate cut around
the turn of the year were not.
"I think May will be
about 25 or 50 basis points," Wunsch said. "If there's another upside
surprise in core inflation and the (ECB's quarterly) lending survey doesn't
look too bad, we might have to do 50," he said. "If there is a
positive surprise in core, then perhaps 25 is more appropriate."
Markets now see the ECB
raising its 3% deposit rate to 3.75% by September, but then expect some
reversal, contrary to the ECB's guidance that once rates peak, they would stay
at that level for a while.
---- The euro zone's biggest
problem now is that underlying inflation is still rising and appears to be
defying all expectations, suggesting that the ECB does not fully understand
these price dynamics.
"What is really
concerning is that in December we projected core inflation stabilising at 5%
before its decline," Wunsch said. "We're now at 5.7%, and within a
few months the deviation from that December projection could be 1 percentage
point."
Core inflation
is still going to come down, especially once the big falls in energy costs feed
through, but there is a risk it could hold above 3% for a longer period, Wunsch
added.
ECB needs more
rate hikes and faster balance sheet cuts, Wunsch says | Reuters
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
This
weekend, Elon Musk nails the BBC for their Covid-19 vaccine adverse reactions
cover up. Approx. 16 minutes.
Mr
Musk interview
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Using
microwaves improves production, recyclability of solar cells
Paul McClure April 13, 2023
Solar cells are good for the
environment, but they have downsides. They’re expensive to make, and there are
limited ways to recycle them. But researchers have developed a new
manufacturing technique that may address both of these issues.
----Solar panels
are comprised of solar cells, which convert light energy from the
sun or artificial light directly into electricity through the photovoltaic
effect. But the disadvantages to making solar panels are that the production of
solar cells is very energy-heavy and there are limited ways of recycling them
once they’ve reached the end of their lifespan.
Now,
researchers might have a solution. A team from Australia's Macquarie University
has developed an improved, time-saving solar cell fabrication process with the
added benefit of making them easier to recycle.
Silicon is
the most common semiconductor material used in solar cells. To make solar
panels, silicon undergoes a heat treatment process called annealing, which
alters its physical properties and performance. Annealing is currently done in
a furnace, requiring temperatures between 1,652 and 2,012 °F (900 to 1,100 °C).
The
researchers found that using microwave radiation to heat the silicon was almost
as efficient as using a furnace. Microwave heating is already used in
rubber, ceramic and wood industries because of its energy efficiency, speed and
uniformity of heating, and economic viability.
Microwave
radiation selectively heats silicon, making the annealing process faster and
extremely energy efficient. In addition, microwaves can be focused and used to
selectively heat sections of the solar panel, making them good for annealing
newer solar panels, which employ heterojunction technology, where crystalline
and amorphous silicon are interwoven.
And,
unlike a furnace that accumulates chemical substances during the heating
process, microwave annealing is clean.
“So, there
is less contamination,” said Binesh Veettil, lead author of the study. “And the
whole process can all be undertaken at room temperature.”
Through
their experiments with microwave annealing, the researchers discovered an added
benefit: microwaving caused the plastic coating that protects the silicon plate
from moisture and contamination to soften. This means the coating can be peeled
off and the plate’s components reused.
“Until
now, it made economic sense to just dump the panels in the landfill,” said
Veettil. “In the rare instances when they are recycled, you crush the panels,
heat them to about 1,400 °C [2,552 °F] and wash them with chemicals to remove
the plastic – a highly energy-demanding process.”
The
researchers intend to undertake further research to optimize the production
process.
The study
was published in the journal Applied
Physics Letters.
Using microwaves
improves production, recyclability of solar cells (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music diversion. Vivaldi
again. Approx. 15 minutes.
Vivaldi
- Sonata in C Major, RV 779
Vivaldi - Sonata
in C Major, RV 779 - YouTube
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 11
minutes.
Alice
Lee Takes Down a 2700!
Alice Lee Takes
Down a 2700! - YouTube
This weekend’s maths diversion. The
slide rule revisited. Everything you knew, if over a certain age, but forgot.
Approx. 20 minutes.
Slide
Rule - Proportion, Percentage, Squares And Square Roots (1944)
Slide Rule -
Proportion, Percentage, Squares And Square Roots (1944) - YouTube
21st
century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
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