Baltic Dry Index. 1435 -28 Brent Crude 86.30
Spot Gold 2004 US 2 Year Yield 4.08 +0.12
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 17/04/23 World 685,679,893
Deaths 6,842,570
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Hmm. Are things so desperate in the US economy that the US Treasury Secretary has suddenly come out publicly suggesting that US rate hikes aren’t needed anymore, but a USA digital currency is needed so that the public and giant corporations can hold fully guaranteed deposits with Uncle Sam.
Presumably Uncle Scam’s Central Bank Digital Currency will be generated out of thin air at the push of a computer button, will pay an interest rate also created out of nothing at the push of a computer button, flooding the US economy with yet more trillions of “free” money.
But don’t dare step out of line, lest your CBDC be restricted or worse confiscated and do remember to stick with official policy and keep voting the right way.
For good measure, Treasury Secretary Yellen also strayed into US proxy war on Russia territory, assuring one and all that Ukraine is winning and that Russia is [still] running out of weapons and munitions.
Who knew that the US Treasury has now replaced the Pentagon!
Better get with Washington’s new time to buy stocks program, I suppose, never mind that food price inflation is still soaring and likely to be with us all year, that more and more of the world sees to be falling into violence, social disorder and wage price inflation strikes, nor that Commercial Real Estate Mortgage Backed Securities in the USA and Europe are on the cusp of an epic implosion.
Asia markets
mixed as Wall Street’s earnings season continues
UPDATED SUN, APR 16 2023 11:23 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific traded mixed on Monday, as Wall
Street looks ahead to another major earnings week, including the likes of Charles Schwab, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.
The quarterly earnings reports
would shed light into the overall health of the financial sector in the U.S.
following the collapse
of Silicon Valley Bank and how that would shape the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.
China’s gross domestic product
report is slated to be released on Tuesday, with economists polled by Reuters
expecting to see a 4% rise year-on-year for the first quarter of 2023, higher
than the final quarter of last year. That would mark the biggest rise in nearly
a year.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
up 0.21%, extending its performance from last week’s gain of 1.98%, with all 11
sectors finishing higher.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 was
marginally lower, while the Topix was up 0.19%. South Korea’s Kospi was down
0.23%, while the Kosdaq rose 0.15%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed
0.22%, while the Hang Seng Tech index fell fractionally. Mainland Chinese
markets were up, with the Shanghai
Composite up 0.78% and the Shenzhen Component advancing
0.1%.
U.S. stocks ended Friday’s
trading session all lower as the market entered its earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average about
0.42%, while the S&P 500 fell
0.21% and the Nasdaq Composite slid
0.35% to end the week
Asia
markets mixed as Wall Street's earnings season continues (cnbc.com)
European markets set for positive start ahead of
Wall Street earnings
UPDATED MON, APR 17 2023 12:27 AM EDT
European markets are heading for a higher open
Monday as investors look ahead to a major earnings week on Wall Street that
will shed more light on the state of the U.S. economy.
U.S. financials are in focus at
the start of the week, with Charles
Schwab reporting quarterly earnings on Monday, Bank of America on
Tuesday and Morgan Stanley on
Wednesday. Investors have been keeping a close eye on the banking sector after
the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last month spurred a
liquidity crisis.
Wall
Street futures ticked higher on Sunday, while Asia-Pacific
traded mixed overnight.
European
markets live updates: news, data, stocks and earnings (cnbc.com)
Yellen says U.S.
banks may tighten lending and negate need for more Fed rate hikes
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said
banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the
wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal
Reserve interest rate hikes.
Yellen said in a CNN “Fareed
Zakaria GPS” interview that policy actions to stem the systemic threat caused
by last month’s failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had caused
deposit outflows to stabilize, “and things have been calm,” according to a
transcript released on Saturday.
---- She said that would lead to a restriction in credit in the
economy that “could be a substitute for further interest rate hikes that the
Fed needs to make.”
But Yellen said she
was not yet seeing anything “dramatic enough or significant enough” in this
area to alter her economic outlook.
“So, I think the
outlook remains one for moderate growth and (a) continued strong labor market
with inflation coming down,” she said.
Yellen is far from the only finance official
expecting some retrenchment in bank credit as a result of the financial sector
upheaval in the last month. Some Fed officials have said the U.S. central bank
should adopt a more cautious footing as they expect banks to restrict lending
in the months ahead.
Weekly bank balance sheet data published by the
Fed has yet to show a material deterioration in bank lending, while also
showing that deposit outflows have stabilized in the last two weeks after an
initial flood of withdrawals around the time of the SVB and Signature failures
in mid-March.
Yellen was asked,
in the wake of concerns about the safety of deposits, whether it would be wise
to develop a central bank digital currency that would allow U.S. consumers to have
accounts directly with the Fed.
“There are important pros ... and there are some cons with such a decision, so it’s one that needs to be seriously analyzed, but it could be something that is in Americans’ future,” Yellen said.
Dollar dominance
Yellen also told
CNN that U.S.-led sanctions and export controls on Russia were depriving it of
materials for its war in Ukraine and the $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian oil
imposed by Western countries was turning Moscow’s expected budget surpluses
into deficits.
The sanctions and
export controls have forced Russia to resort to Iran and North Korea for
military equipment and supplies and the U.S. was taking steps to curb sanctions
evasion, Yellen said.
More
Yellen
says U.S. banks may tighten lending and negate need for more Fed rate hikes
(cnbc.com)
Finally, it might mean nothing or it might
mean yet more food price inflation continuing across 2024 and into 2025.
Weather scientists say conditions 'favorable' for
return of El Niño
APRIL 13, 2023 / 7:22 PM
April 13 (UPI) -- Scientists now expect the El Niño weather phenomenon to affect
climate conditions and temperatures during the next six months, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
The
administration's Climate Prediction Center issued a
warning for the climate
pattern officially known as the El
Niño-Southern Oscillation.
"The
most recent [International Research Institute] plume favors a transition to El
Niño, beginning June-August 2023 and persisting into the winter," the
Climate Prediction Center said in its April warning.
An El Niño
watch is issued when "conditions are favorable" for the system
developing.
"While
we are still in an ENSO-neutral phase -- when no El Niño or La Niña is present
-- there is a 62% chance El Niño will develop sometime between May and July.
This comes after nearly two continuous years of a La Niña," NOAA said in a
statement Thursday.
El Niño is
the warm phase of the southern oscillation and usually is associated with
warmer ocean temperatures and greater precipitation between the central and
eastern Pacific Ocean.
The event
usually occurs every two to
seven years, typically developing between April and June and hitting maximum
strength between October and February.
In early
March, NOAA scientists
officially declared an end to
the La Niña, the colder counterpart to El Niño.
El Niño
generally equates to wetter-than-usual conditions across the southern United
States, with warmer and drier conditions in the northern part of the country.
Weather scientists say conditions 'favorable' for
return of El Niño - UPI.com
El Nino
Watch Called as Odds Grow of Weather-Shifting Event
·
Warming
Pacific could limit Atlantic hurricanes in September
·
El Nino
could hurt tea, coffee and cocoa crops across Asia
13
April 2023 at 14:00 BSTUpdated on13 April 2023 at 15:50 BST
Subscription
required.
El Nino Watch Declared as Odds Grow of
Weather-Shifting Event - Bloomberg
April 2023 ENSO update: El Niño Watch
BY EMILY BECKER
Well, that was quick! Just two months ago I was writing about La Niña for
what seemed like the 97th month in a row, and then by March La
Niña had departed. Today we’re hoisting an El
Niño Watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for the development of El
Niño conditions within the next 6 months. In fact, there’s a 62% chance of El Niño conditions for the May–July
period. Read on for the reasoning behind the outlook, thoughts about the
potential strength of El Niño, and implications for global weather and climate.
----
That’s where we are… but where are we going?? There’s a 62% chance that El Niño
will develop during the May–July period, and more than 80% chance of El Niño by
the fall.
---- Since ENSO can be predicted months in advance, we can start
playing the odds on what sort of climate patterns can be expected. There is a
lot of variety,
and no prediction is ever perfect! But it’s currently the best tool we have to
anticipate upcoming seasonal conditions.
I’ll
get back to the potential impacts of El Niño in a minute—first, let’s discuss
this confident forecast. Forecasts made during the spring are often less
accurate than those made other times of the year. ENSO tends to change phase
during the spring, and the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system can be more
susceptible to smaller pushes like short-term weather variations, contributing
to the “spring
predictability barrier.” So it seems the forecasters are really feeling
their oats this month, to be giving El Niño such relatively high odds. What’s
behind this?
First,
the latest runs from our computer climate models are providing very high
probabilities that El Niño will develop this year. When there is a lot of
agreement among the models, we tend to give more credence to their predictions.
For some examples, here’re Niño-3.4 forecasts from the European multi-model ensemble, Australia’s ACCESS-S2, and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
----
Further bolstering the chance for El Niño is a short-term forecast for
the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is an area of storminess that travels
west-to-east along the equator. It’s flanked by wind anomalies, as surface
level winds rush toward the area of storminess. The MJO is predicted to be in a phase that will weaken the trade
winds (the consistent east-to-west winds near the equator) over the next couple
of weeks. Weaker trade winds allow the surface to warm and can contribute to
the growth or propagation of downwelling Kelvin waves.
One
more observation supporting the potential development of El Niño is the
currently very warm far-eastern Pacific. The Niño-1+2 index, which measures the
sea surface temperature off the coast of Peru, was near-record warm in March.
A coastal
El Niño like this can precede a larger El Niño event, although not
always.
To
summarize, there are several signs pointing to the development of El Niño,
including model predictions and the current state of the ocean and atmosphere.
It’s still possible that a developing El Niño will sputter out, and the
forecast includes around a 1-in-8 chance of neutral conditions in the late
fall. However, from our current vantage point, there is enough evidence to
support a confident forecast for El Niño.
----
What would an El Niño mean for global climate?
Right,
I promised to get back to impacts! El Niño influences the Atlantic
and Pacific hurricane seasons, usually leading to fewer tropical storms and
hurricanes in the Atlantic and more than average in the Pacific. In the case of
the Atlantic, El Niño increases vertical wind shear—the change in wind
direction and strength from the surface to higher in the atmosphere—which can
impede a hurricane’s growth. NOAA’s hurricane outlook comes out next month, so
keep your eyes peeled for that.
You
can check out some of the El Niño-related expected temperature and
precipitation patterns during June–August and December–February here.
We’ll get into more detail about these potential patterns in coming months.
---- If El Niño develops this year, it increases the odds
of record-warm global temperature.
More
April 2023 ENSO update: El Niño Watch | NOAA
Climate.gov
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Steep
Year-over-Year Decline for Single-Family Permits in February 2023
Year-to-date ending in
February, single-family permits declined in all four regions. The Northeast
posted a decline of 23.6%, while the West region reported the steepest decline
of 44.7%. The Midwest declined by 33.3% and the South declined by 31.5% in
single-family permits during this time. The South posted an increase of 31.8%
in multifamily permits and the West increased by a small margin. Multifamily
permits in the Northeast were down 32.6% and down in the Midwest 14.8%.
Between February 2022 YTD
and February 2023 YTD, all the states and the District of Columbia reported
declines in single-family permits ranging from 3.8% in New Mexico to 72.8% in
Montana. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits
combined accounted for 66.3% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas,
the state with the highest number of single-family permits declined 40.2% in
the last 12 months while the next two highest states, Florida and North
Carolina declined by 31.2% and 22.3% respectively.
Year-to-date, ending in
February, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached
100,633. This is 8.4% above the February 2022 level of 92,818.
Between February 2022 YTD
and February 2023 YTD, 24 states and the District of Columbia recorded growth,
while 26 states recorded a decline in multifamily permits. North Dakota led the
way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from two to 316 while Maine had
the largest decline of 89.3% from 748 to 80. The ten states issuing the highest
number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 67.4% of the multifamily
permits issued.
More
Steep
Year-over-Year Decline for Single-Family Permits in February 2023 | Eye On
Housing
Poland, Hungary ban
grain and food imports from Ukraine; Kyiv unhappy
April 15, 2023
WARSAW/BUDAPEST (Reuters) -Poland and Hungary have decided to ban imports of grain and other food from neighbouring Ukraine to protect the local agricultural sector, the two governments said on Saturday, after a flood of supply depressed prices across the region.
Ukraine expressed regret about the Polish decision, saying that
"resolving various issues by unilateral drastic actions will not accelerate
a positive resolution of the situation".
After Russia's invasion blocked some Black Sea ports, large quantities
of Ukrainian grain, which is cheaper than that produced in the European Union,
ended up staying in Central European states due to logistical bottlenecks,
hitting prices and sales for local farmers.
In a letter to the European Commission last month, the prime ministers
of five eastern European countries said the scale of the increase in products
like grains, oilseeds, eggs, poultry and sugar had been
"unprecedented", and said tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural imports
should potentially be considered.
The impact of the oversupply has created a political problem for Poland's ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) in an election year, with the economy mired in stagflation.
"Today, the government has decided on a regulation that prohibits the entry, importation of grain into Poland, but also dozens of other types of food (from Ukraine)," PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said during a party convention.
The list of
these goods, which will range "from grain to honey products, very, very
many things", will be included in the government regulation, he added.
Ukraine's
ministry of agrarian policy and food said the Polish ban contradicted existing
bilateral agreements on exports, and called for talks to settle the issue.
"We
understand that Polish farmers are in a difficult situation, but we emphasize
that Ukrainian farmers are in the most difficult situation right now," it
said in a statement.
Later on
Saturday nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government joined
the ban, saying the status quo would cause severe damage to local farmers.
Hungary did
not give details on when its ban on grain and other food imports would go into
effect, but said it will expire at the end of June.
More
Poland, Hungary ban grain and food imports from Ukraine; Kyiv unhappy (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Contentious COVID-19 Drugs Are
All Antimalarial: May Not Be a Coincidence
Apr 14 2023
The COVID-19
recommendations hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, and now artemisinin all have one thing in common: They
are antimalarial drugs or have such properties.
Yet studies suggest that this may
not be a mere coincidence; malaria and COVID-19 may be more similar than people
may realize.
Malaria Versus COVID-19
From the outset, malaria and
COVID-19 are very distinct diseases.
Malaria is a parasitic disease. An
infection starts when an individual is bitten by a mosquito carrying a parasite
from the Plasmodium genus. Upon infection, the parasite first goes to the liver
and multiplies in liver cells. Then it migrates to the bloodstream, invades and
proliferates in red blood cells, and causes these cells to expand and burst.
Common malaria symptoms such
as fever, chills, and sweating occur during the blood-stage infection. Complications
include anemia, and on rare occasions, cerebral malaria, liver failure,
fluid buildup in the lungs, and acute respiratory distress syndrome.
COVID-19, on the other hand, is a
viral disease. Infection occurs primarily through the inhalation of
contaminated droplets. The virus invades the body through the nasal cavities,
entering the upper and then lower respiratory tracts.
Inflammation of the lungs ensues
as the body’s immune cells fight off the infection. The person’s oxygen levels
start dropping as inflammation worsens in the advent of a cytokine storm, and
the lungs become damaged. Some of the virus can also go into the bloodstream
and invade other organs, causing systemic inflammation and damage.
Several Commonalities
While one mainly affects blood
cells and the other primarily affects the lungs, both
diseases are characterized by a strong inflammatory response early in
the infection, according to a 2022 paper in Frontiers in Immunology.
More,
much, much more.
Contentious
COVID-19 Drugs Are All Antimalarial: May Not Be a Coincidence
(theepochtimes.com)
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Wonder material graphene
claims yet another superlative
12 April 2023
In a
paper published in Nature this
week (13 Apr 2023), researchers from The University of
Manchester report record-high magnetoresistance that appears in graphene under
ambient conditions.
Materials
that strongly change their resistivity under magnetic fields are highly sought
for various applications and, for example, every car and every computer contain
many tiny magnetic sensors. Such materials are rare, and most metals and
semiconductors change their electrical resistivity only by a tiny fraction of a
percent at room temperature and in practically viable magnetic fields
(typically, by less than a millionth of 1 %). To observe a strong
magnetoresistance response, researchers usually cool materials to liquid-helium
temperatures so that electrons inside scatter less and can follow cyclotron
trajectories.
Now a
research team led by Professor Sir Andre Geim has found that good old graphene
that seemed to be studied in every detail over the last two decade exhibits a
remarkably strong response, reaching above 100% in magnetic fields of standard
permanent magnets (of about 1,000 Gauss). This is a record magnetoresistivity
among all the known materials.
Speaking
about this latest graphene discovery, Sir Andre Geim said: “People working on
graphene like myself always felt that this gold mine of physics should have
been exhausted long ago. The material continuously proves us wrong finding yet
another incarnation. Today I have to admit again that graphene is dead, long
live graphene.”
To achieve this, the
researchers used high-quality graphene and tuned it to its intrinsic, virgin
state where there were only charge carriers excited by temperature. This
created a plasma of fast-moving “Dirac fermions” that exhibited a surprisingly
high mobility despite frequent scattering. Both high mobility and neutrality of
this Dirac plasma are crucial components for the reported giant
magnetoresistance.
----In
addition to the record magnetoresistivity, the researchers have also found
that, at elevated temperatures, neutral graphene becomes a so-called “strange
metal”. This is the name given to materials where electron scattering becomes
ultimately fast, being determined only by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle.
The behaviour of strange metals is poorly understood and remains a mystery
currently under investigation worldwide.
The Manchester work adds some more mystery to the field by showing that
graphene exhibits a giant linear magnetoresistance in fields above a few Tesla,
which is weakly temperature dependent. This high-field magnetoresistance is
again record-breaking.
More
Wonder material graphene claims yet another
superlative (manchester.ac.uk)
“The voice of Finance seemed to call to me, but it was a wrong number.”
Sam Bankman-Fried, with
apologies to P. G. Wodehouse.
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