Friday 14 April 2023

Stocks And Economic Gloom Rise.

Baltic Dry Index. 1463  unch.       Brent Crude 86.39

Spot Gold 2042                US 2 Year Yield 3.96 +0.01

Coronavirus Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 14/04/23 World 685,407,178

Deaths 6,841,153

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

In the stock casinos ,rising optimism that rising inflation has been beaten. The next interest rate rise will be the last for most central banks.

Well maybe, but I’m not yet ready to bet on inflations been beaten.

First, wage demands are soaring globally, even as the global economy has begun to stumble. China’s reopening after the Covid-19 U-turn has been slower and weaker than most economists predicted.

On the inflation front, much will depend on what happens to food price inflation in the rest of 2023, something completely out of the control of the central banksters. Does anyone really expect food manufacturers to reduce prices or resize downsized products?

On the global economy front, stagflation seems more likely for 2023-2024 than a new bull market from here.

 

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as more data point to U.S. inflation cooling

UPDATED FRI, APR 14 2023 12:47 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets largely rose on Friday, following the moves of Wall Street as the U.S. producer price index signaled further signs of cooling inflation.

The March producer price index, a measure of prices paid by companies and often a leading indicator of consumer inflation, declined by 0.5% month-on-month.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained its monetary policy as its core inflation remains at the highest levels in 14 years. The economy saw a quarterly contraction of 0.7% and a marginal growth of 0.1% year-on-year, advance estimates showed.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1%. The Topix inched up 0.5%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.7%, the Kosdaq rose 0.9% as North Korea released a statement on its latest missile launch into the waters between Korea and Japan.

The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was flat. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% and the Shenzhen Component gained 0.5%.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes rose, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.33% for its highest close since February. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.99%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.14%.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as more data point to U.S. inflation cooling (cnbc.com)

 

Stock futures are down slightly as investors ready for corporate earnings season: Live updates

UPDATED THU, APR 13 2023 6:57 PM EDT

Stock futures are slightly lower as investors looked to the start of corporate earnings season while considering what the latest inflation data implies about the economy.

Futures tied to the Dow Industrial Average lost 42 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were slightly below the flatline, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%.

The moves follow a winning day on Wall Street as investors cheered the latest data showing the pace of inflation was slowing. The Nasdaq Composite ended up nearly 2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow finished 1.3% and 1.1% higher, respectively.

The March producer price index, a measure of prices paid by companies, declined 0.5% from the prior month, even as economists polled by Dow Jones expected prices to stay the same. Excluding food and energy, the index shed 0.1% from the prior month, while economists estimated a 0.2% month-to-month increase.

The PPI, which is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation, bolstered a trend of easing inflation seen in the March consumer price index report released Wednesday. Consumer prices grew 5% on an annual basis, which was the smallest year-over-year increase in nearly two years.

The data points bolstered those hoping the Fed is seeing inflation fall enough to end its interest rate hike campaign in the near future, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.

“The movement in the market today clearly is reflecting the continued decline in inflationary pressures — and the belief, therefore, that the Fed will more likely stop with one more rate increase rather than two,” Stovall said. “Investors are becoming optimistic that times will improve.”

Investors will watch for big-bank earnings Friday, with JPMorganWells Fargo and Citi set to report before the bell. They will also watch for data on retail sales, import prices and the industrial sector for more insights into the state of the economy.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Finally, whose idea was it to weaponised the dollar last year, incentivising much of the non G-7 to look for alternatives?

Brazil's Lula criticises US dollar and IMF during China visit

Issued on: 14/04/2023 - 03:25

The two countries have recently announced a deal to trade in their own currencies, dropping the dollar as an intermediary. Lula also criticised the IMF, accusing it of 'asphyxiating' the economy of certain countries.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva criticised the outsize role of the US dollar in the world economy and lashed out at the IMF on Thursday during an official visit to China.

 

The veteran leftist, whose government recently announced a deal with Beijing to trade in their own currencies – ditching the dollar as an intermediary – is in China to boost ties with his country's top trading partner and spread his message that "Brazil is back" as a key player on the global stage.

"Why should every country have to be tied to the dollar for trade?... Who decided the dollar would be the (world's) currency?" Lula said in Shanghai at a ceremony to inaugurate his political ally Dilma Rousseff as president of the development bank set up by the BRICS nations (Brazil, RussiaIndia, China and South Africa).

 

"Why can't a bank like the BRICS bank have a currency to finance trade between Brazil and China, between Brazil and other BRICS countries?... Today, countries have to chase after dollars to export, when they could be exporting in their own currencies."

Lula also had strong words for the International Monetary Fund, alluding to accusations the IMF forces overly harsh spending cuts on cash-strapped countries like Brazil's neighbour Argentina in exchange for bailout loans.

"No bank should be asphyxiating countries' economies the way the IMF is doing now with Argentina, or the way they did with Brazil for a long time and every third-world country," he said. "No leader can work with a knife to their throat because (their country) owes money."

'Brazil is back!'

Lula, who took office in January, is looking to reposition Brazil as a global go-between and deal broker, seeking friendly ties across the board after four years of relative isolation under his far-right predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

He is due to meet with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, and also visited US President Joe Biden in February.

"Brazil is back!" Lula promised in Shanghai, where he arrived on Wednesday night. "The time when Brazil was absent from major world decisions is in the past. We are back on the international stage, after an inexplicable absence."

One of the main topics on the agenda when Lula and Xi meet on Friday is expected to be the Ukraine war. Both China and Brazil have positioned themselves as mediators in the conflict, despite Western concerns that they are overly cosy with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both countries have refused to join Western nations in imposing sanctions on Russia for its invasion.

More

Brazil's Lula criticises US dollar and IMF during China visit (france24.com) 


No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - The latest bid by the world's leading institutions and creditors to speed up debt restructurings and get bankrupt countries back on their feet has been greeted by a mix of cautious optimism and weary scepticism by veteran crisis watchers.

Standoffs between major Western-backed lenders like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the world’s top bilateral creditor, China, have been blamed for keeping countries such as Zambia mired in default for nearly three years.

The somewhat loose framework around sovereign restructurings has seen Beijing seek to influence the traditional rules of engagement in these processes.

The renewed push to overcome the logjams came after a "roundtable" at the IMF Spring Meetings and included pledges from the Fund and World Bank to share assessments of countries' troubles more quickly, provide more low-interest and grant funding and stricter timeframes on restructurings overall.

Beijing is yet to comment, but the idea is that it would then drop its insistence that the multilateral lenders take losses, or "haircuts", on the loans they have provided or underwritten in crisis-hit countries.

"If the multilateral development banks are now making real commitments to provide fresh grants to distressed countries this is a breakthrough," said Kevin Gallagher, director of the Boston University Global Development Policy Center.

But he added that as the new plans lacked specific mention of China's intentions it suggested the "lack of a strong and clear consensus" in Washington.

The IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva has stressed that with around 15% of low income countries already in debt distress and dozens more in danger of falling into it, far more urgency is needed.

---- Beijing is now the largest bilateral creditor to developing nations, extending $138 billion in new loans between 2010 and 2021, according to World Bank data, and some estimates put total lending at almost $850 billion.

More

No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK economy stalls in February but is just about on track to dodge recession in early 2023

THURSDAY 13 APRIL 2023 7:15 AM

Britain is just about on track to dodge a recession in the first half of this year, defying gloomy predictions from experts heading into 2023 that the economy would suffer the largest slump in recent memory, figures out today show.

Gross domestic product (GDP) – which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the UK – stalled in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The number was below the City’s expectations of a 0.1 per cent expansion, but the ONS hiked its estimates for January’s GDP growth to 0.4 per cent from 0.3 per cent.

Although stalling in February, over the three months, the economy expanded 0.1 per cent, meaning the UK is poised to avoid a quarterly GDP contraction in the first three months of this year, raising the chances of the country swerving a technical recession – two consecutive quarters of contraction – in the first half of 2023.

The Bank of England at the turn of the year was forecasting the longest recession in a century, shaving around three per cent off of GDP. Office for Budget Responsibility officials had also projected a tough economic hit.

Both organisations have now canned their UK recession bets this year, as have many top City economists.

But a report out this from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world’s economic watchdog, warned the country is poised to suffer the worst economic contraction of any G7 country at 0.3 per cent.

Germany is the only other rich nation the IMF reckons will shrink this year, although the lender of last resort did revise up its call for UK GDP from a 0.6 per cent drop, the largest upgrade among developed countries.

UK economy stalls but is just about on track to dodge recession (cityam.com)

Singapore’s central bank warns of dim growth in 2023, but expects inflation to be significantly lower by year end

Singapore’s central bank said that the country’s gross domestic product is expected to “moderate significantly” this year, and that prospects for growth this year have “dimmed.”

This comes as the economy grew 0.1% in the first quarter compared with a year ago, according to the trade and industry ministry’s advance GDP estimates. However, compared with the previous quarter, GDP contracted by 0.7%, the first contraction since the second quarter of 2022.

MAS said global economic activity was “somewhat more resilient than expected” in the first quarter of 2023, with the fall in global energy prices, strong consumption demand in the advanced economies, and the lifting of pandemic restrictions in China.

However, it expects that tighter financial conditions globally will lead to an intensified drag on global investment and manufacturing. MAS also sees the reopening demand boost in most regional economies tapering off over the course of the year.

Limited boost from China’s reopening

While China’s reopening is relatively recent, the Singapore central bank expects the mainland’s rebound will be largely consumption driven and oriented toward its domestic services market.

The MAS said “growth in Singapore’s major trading partners will be slower in 2023, below the pace recorded in the previous two years.”

Singapore’s trade-related cluster is expected to contract further, and growth domestically is forecasted to moderate as higher consumer prices and interest rates restrain spending. The MAS expects 2023 GDP growth of between 0.5% and 2.5%, down from the 3.6% growth in 2022.

Singapore’s manufacturing sector makes up the largest portion of its GDP, standing at 21.6% of nominal GDP in 2022. The sector contracted by 6% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to the trade and industry ministry’s release, steeper than the 2.6% year-on-year contraction recorded in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector shrank by 5.2% in the first quarter, a reversal from the 1% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2022. The ministry noted there was an output contraction across all manufacturing clusters, except for transport engineering.

More

Singapore's central bank sees dim growth, lower inflation in 2023 (cnbc.com)

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Brain Injuries After COVID Vaccination

April 12, 2023

There are back door routes to the brain. COVID vaccine developers have traversed a path through those doors. And they knew they had entered the brain by November 2020, before the vaccine rollout.

We have 86 billion neurons in the human brain, and each of those connects with 10,000 other neurons. No other structure in the known universe rivals the brain’s complexity.

The brain is also the most exclusive club, so to speak, in the body. The gatekeeper is the blood-brain barrier (BBB). That barrier, shown in the second illustration below, is mostly composed of tight junctions between endothelial cells that line, in a single layer, the capillaries (our smallest blood vessels) that nourish the brain. So the BBB is in effect the capillary walls and the tight junctions between its cells.

However, to some extent, there is a liquid component to the BBB, in that the pristine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) that bathes the brain and spinal cord is kept pure by the BBB.

At the risk of oversimplifying, if the central nervous system, which includes the brain and spinal cord, is the royalty of the body, then the skull and vertebrae and BBB are the castle walls, and the CSF is the moat—but a clean moat—unlike the medieval ones. Intruding molecules and pathogens would have to traverse both solid and liquid barriers.

 

Capillaries are the smallest blood vessels, and they are everywhere in the body. They are the U-turn points where arteries and then smaller arterioles give way to capillaries, then venules, and then veins in blood’s perpetual round-trip from the heart to everywhere else and back again. Anywhere you can point to on your body has a dense and intricate network of capillaries under the skin.

 

The bottleneck of the BBB is comprised of the tight junctions between capillary wall endothelial cells, prohibiting passage of most substances, as detailed below. Those ubiquitous capillaries run through the entire body, and in the brain they are 40 micrometers apart, which is a space in which two neurons can fit. [1] So every neuron in the brain is nourished by an adjacent capillary.

----A typical pharmacology strategy to enter the brain is chaperoning, in which substances that do not typically cross the BBB are compounded together with substances that do cross, which may mimic endogenous molecules. Lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) carry medications into cells but rarely cross the BBB alone. Monoclonal antibodies have shepherded LNPs across the BBB. [4] Enzymes interact with cell membranes and can be used. [5]

Also, if previously non-BBB-crossing LNPs are linked to neurotransmitter-derived synthetic lipids, then they can cross the BBB and carry medications or other chemicals with them, and then those LNPs can enter neurons. [6] The reason for this is that neurotransmitters are typically in the brain—and belong in the brain—and generally pass without gatekeeping.

In other words, when a Trojan horse molecule such as an LNP is dressed up with a neurotransmitter that would typically belong in the brain, it fools the blood-brain barrier into allowing passage inside the brain.

More

Brain Injuries After COVID Vaccination (theepochtimes.com)

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Issues Surrounding the Increased Demand for Critical Metals

Apr 12 2023

As automobile electrification cranks up, the world faces an overwhelming need for critical metals and minerals to make atmosphere-saving electric vehicles possible.

According to new Cornell research published on April 11th, 2023, in Nature Communications, demand for battery-grade lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and platinum will rise sharply as nations work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through mid-century, but will probably trigger economic snags and supply-chain disruptions.

Electrification and decarbonizing fuel production are critical for adequately mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. Improving the efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles can cut greenhouse gas emissions, but deep decarbonization for the road transportation sector requires electrification and a shift to cleaner energy, such as electricity generated from renewable sources.

Fengqi You, Study Senior Author and Roxanne E. and Michael J. Zak Professor, Energy Systems Engineering, Cornell University

In the new study, You and his colleagues evaluated 48 key countries dedicated to playing a significant role in electrifying transportation, including the United States, China, and India.

Monotonic growth in global demand for critical metals to 2050 is the most prevalent trend. It’s mainly driven by the electric vehicle market penetration and battery technology development.

Fengqi You, Study Senior Author and Roxanne E. and Michael J. Zak Professor, Energy Systems Engineering, Cornell University

If 40% of vehicles become electric by 2050, the worldwide demand for lithium will increase by 2,909% from the level in 2020. If all vehicles are electric by 2050, the demand for lithium will more than double to 7,513%.

In a world where all vehicles are electric, the annual demand for lithium will rise from 747 metric tons to 2.2 million metric tons between 2010 and 2050.

By mid-century, for instance, nickel demand will have surpassed that of other key metals, with global demand ranging from 2 million metric tons in a world where 40% of vehicles are electric to 5.2 million metric tons in a world where all vehicles are electric.

According to the research, annual demand for cobalt (0.3 to 0.8 million metric tons) and manganese (0.2 to 0.5 million metric tons) will increase by the same order of magnitude in 2050.

According to the World Bank, key metals and minerals are currently centralized in politically unstable Congo, Chile, Brazil, Indonesia, Argentina, and South Africa.

More

Issues Surrounding the Increased Demand for Critical Metals (azocleantech.com)

Another weekend and almost time to start evaluating the start to the winter planted northern hemisphere crops. If planet Earth is to get any relief from persistent, not transitory, food price inflation in 2023, we should start noticing how the early grain crops are doing in another one to two weeks. Have a great weekend everyone.

“The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune.

The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost.

The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. …..The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall.

 Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months.

The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable."

J. K. Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929. 


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