Baltic
Dry Index. 1463 unch.
Brent Crude 86.39
Spot Gold 2042 US 2 Year Yield 3.96 +0.01
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 14/04/23 World 685,407,178
Deaths 6,841,153
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
In the stock casinos ,rising optimism that rising inflation has been beaten. The next interest rate rise will be the last for most central banks.
Well maybe, but I’m not yet ready to bet on
inflations been beaten.
First, wage demands are soaring globally, even as the global economy has begun to stumble. China’s reopening after the Covid-19 U-turn has been slower and weaker than most economists predicted.
On the inflation front, much will depend on what happens to food price inflation in the rest of 2023, something completely out of the control of the central banksters. Does anyone really expect food manufacturers to reduce prices or resize downsized products?
On the global economy front, stagflation seems
more likely for 2023-2024 than a new bull market from here.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as more data
point to U.S. inflation cooling
UPDATED FRI, APR 14 2023 12:47 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets largely rose on Friday,
following the moves of Wall Street as the U.S. producer price index signaled
further signs of cooling inflation.
The March producer
price index, a measure of prices paid by companies and often a leading
indicator of consumer inflation, declined by 0.5% month-on-month.
The Monetary
Authority of Singapore maintained its monetary policy as its core inflation
remains at the highest levels in 14 years. The economy saw a quarterly
contraction of 0.7% and a marginal growth of 0.1% year-on-year, advance
estimates showed.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained
1%. The Topix inched up 0.5%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.7%,
the Kosdaq rose 0.9% as North Korea released a statement on its latest missile
launch into the waters between Korea and Japan.
The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong was flat. The Shanghai Composite rose
0.3% and the Shenzhen Component gained
0.5%.
Overnight in the U.S., all three
major indexes rose, with the S&P
500 climbing 1.33% for its highest close since February. The Nasdaq Composite advanced
1.99%, and the Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 1.14%.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rise as more data point to U.S. inflation cooling (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are down slightly as investors
ready for corporate earnings season: Live updates
UPDATED THU, APR 13 2023 6:57 PM EDT
Stock futures are slightly lower as investors
looked to the start of corporate earnings season while considering what the
latest inflation data implies about the economy.
Futures tied to the Dow
Industrial Average lost 42 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were slightly
below the flatline, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%.
The moves follow a winning
day on Wall Street as investors cheered the latest data showing
the pace of inflation was slowing. The Nasdaq Composite ended
up nearly 2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow finished
1.3% and 1.1% higher, respectively.
The March producer price index, a
measure of prices paid by companies, declined 0.5% from the prior month, even
as economists polled by Dow Jones expected prices to stay the same. Excluding
food and energy, the index shed 0.1% from the prior month, while economists
estimated a 0.2% month-to-month increase.
The PPI, which is considered a
leading indicator of consumer inflation, bolstered a trend of easing inflation
seen in the March
consumer price index report released Wednesday. Consumer prices
grew 5% on an annual basis, which was the smallest year-over-year increase in
nearly two years.
The data points bolstered those
hoping the Fed is seeing inflation fall enough to end its interest rate hike
campaign in the near future, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at
CFRA Research.
“The movement in the market today
clearly is reflecting the continued decline in inflationary pressures — and the
belief, therefore, that the Fed will more likely stop with one more rate
increase rather than two,” Stovall said. “Investors are becoming optimistic
that times will improve.”
Investors will watch for big-bank
earnings Friday, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi set
to report before the bell. They will also watch for data on retail sales,
import prices and the industrial sector for more insights into the state of the
economy.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Finally, whose idea was it to weaponised the
dollar last year, incentivising much of the non G-7 to look for alternatives?
Brazil's Lula criticises US
dollar and IMF during China visit
Issued on: 14/04/2023 -
03:25
The two countries have recently announced a deal
to trade in their own currencies, dropping the dollar as an intermediary. Lula
also criticised the IMF, accusing it of 'asphyxiating' the economy of certain
countries.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva criticised the outsize
role of the US dollar in the
world economy and lashed out at the IMF on Thursday during an official visit to China.
The veteran leftist, whose
government recently announced a deal with Beijing to trade in their own currencies – ditching
the dollar as an intermediary – is in China to boost ties with his
country's top trading partner and spread his message that "Brazil is
back" as a key player on the global stage.
"Why
should every country have to be tied to the dollar for trade?... Who decided
the dollar would be the (world's) currency?" Lula said in Shanghai at a
ceremony to inaugurate his political ally Dilma Rousseff as president of the development
bank set up by the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
"Why can't a bank like the
BRICS bank have a currency to finance trade between Brazil and China, between
Brazil and other BRICS countries?... Today, countries have to chase after
dollars to export, when they could be exporting in their own currencies."
Lula also had
strong words for the International Monetary Fund, alluding to accusations the
IMF forces overly harsh spending cuts on cash-strapped countries like Brazil's
neighbour Argentina in
exchange for bailout loans.
"No bank should be
asphyxiating countries' economies the way the IMF is doing now with Argentina,
or the way they did with Brazil for a long time and every third-world
country," he said. "No leader can work with a knife to their throat
because (their country) owes money."
'Brazil is back!'
Lula, who took
office in January, is looking to reposition Brazil as a global go-between and
deal broker, seeking friendly ties across the board after four years of relative
isolation under his far-right predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.
He is due to
meet with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, and also visited
US President Joe Biden in February.
"Brazil is back!"
Lula promised in Shanghai, where he arrived on Wednesday night. "The time
when Brazil was absent from major world decisions is in the past. We are back
on the international stage, after an inexplicable absence."
One of the
main topics on the agenda when Lula and Xi meet on Friday is expected to be
the Ukraine war. Both China and Brazil have positioned
themselves as mediators in the conflict, despite Western concerns that they are
overly cosy with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both countries have refused to join
Western nations in imposing sanctions on Russia for its invasion.
More
Brazil's Lula criticises US dollar and IMF during China visit (france24.com)
No
China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up
April
14, 2023 6:00 AM GMT+1
LONDON, April 13
(Reuters) - The latest bid by the world's leading institutions and creditors to
speed up debt restructurings and get bankrupt countries back on their feet has
been greeted by a mix of cautious optimism and weary scepticism by veteran crisis
watchers.
Standoffs
between major Western-backed lenders like the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
and the world’s top bilateral creditor, China, have been blamed for keeping
countries such as Zambia mired in default for nearly three years.
The somewhat
loose framework around sovereign restructurings has seen Beijing seek to
influence the traditional rules of engagement in these processes.
The
renewed push to overcome the logjams came after a "roundtable" at the IMF Spring
Meetings and included pledges from the Fund and World Bank to share assessments
of countries' troubles more quickly, provide more low-interest and grant
funding and stricter timeframes on restructurings overall.
Beijing
is yet to comment, but the idea is that it would then drop its insistence that
the multilateral lenders take losses, or "haircuts", on the loans
they have provided or underwritten in crisis-hit countries.
"If the
multilateral development banks are now making real commitments to provide fresh
grants to distressed countries this is a breakthrough," said Kevin
Gallagher, director of the Boston University Global Development Policy Center.
But
he added that as the new plans lacked specific mention of China's intentions it
suggested the "lack of a strong and clear consensus" in Washington.
The
IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva has stressed that with around 15%
of low income countries already in debt distress and dozens more in danger of
falling into it, far more urgency is needed.
---- Beijing is
now the largest bilateral creditor to developing nations, extending $138
billion in new loans between 2010 and 2021, according to World Bank data, and some estimates put total lending at almost $850 billion.
More
No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK
economy stalls in February but is just about on track to dodge recession in
early 2023
THURSDAY 13 APRIL 2023 7:15 AM
Britain is just about on track to dodge a
recession in the first half of this year, defying gloomy predictions from
experts heading into 2023 that the economy would suffer the largest slump in
recent memory, figures out today show.
Gross domestic product (GDP) – which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the UK – stalled in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The number was below the
City’s expectations of a 0.1 per cent expansion, but the ONS hiked its
estimates for January’s GDP growth to 0.4 per cent from 0.3 per cent.
Although stalling in
February, over the three months, the economy expanded 0.1 per cent, meaning the
UK is poised to avoid a quarterly GDP contraction in the first three months of
this year, raising the chances of the country swerving a technical recession –
two consecutive quarters of contraction – in the first half of 2023.
The Bank of England at the turn of the year was
forecasting the longest recession in a century, shaving around three per cent
off of GDP. Office for Budget Responsibility officials had also projected a
tough economic hit.
Both organisations have now canned their UK
recession bets this year, as have many top City economists.
But a report out this from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), the world’s economic watchdog, warned the country is
poised to suffer the worst economic contraction of any G7 country at 0.3 per
cent.
Germany is the only
other rich nation the IMF reckons will shrink this year, although the lender of
last resort did revise up its call for UK GDP from a 0.6 per cent drop, the
largest upgrade among developed countries.
UK economy stalls
but is just about on track to dodge recession (cityam.com)
Singapore’s central bank warns of dim growth in
2023, but expects inflation to be significantly lower by year end
Singapore’s central bank said that the country’s
gross domestic product is expected to “moderate significantly” this year, and
that prospects for growth this year have “dimmed.”
This comes as the economy grew 0.1%
in the first quarter compared with a year ago, according to the trade and
industry ministry’s advance GDP estimates. However, compared with
the previous quarter, GDP contracted by 0.7%, the first contraction since the
second quarter of 2022.
MAS said global economic activity was
“somewhat more resilient than expected” in the first quarter of 2023, with the
fall in global energy prices, strong consumption demand in the advanced
economies, and the lifting of pandemic restrictions in China.
However, it expects that tighter financial conditions globally will lead to an intensified drag on global investment and manufacturing. MAS also sees the reopening demand boost in most regional economies tapering off over the course of the year.
Limited boost from China’s reopening
While China’s
reopening is relatively recent, the Singapore central bank expects the
mainland’s rebound will be largely consumption driven and oriented toward its
domestic services market.
The MAS said
“growth in Singapore’s major trading partners will be slower in 2023, below the
pace recorded in the previous two years.”
Singapore’s
trade-related cluster is expected to contract further, and growth domestically
is forecasted to moderate as higher consumer prices and interest rates restrain
spending. The MAS expects 2023 GDP growth of between 0.5% and 2.5%, down from
the 3.6% growth in 2022.
Singapore’s manufacturing sector makes up the
largest portion of its GDP, standing at 21.6%
of nominal GDP in 2022. The sector contracted by 6% in the
first quarter from a year ago, according to the trade and industry ministry’s
release, steeper than the 2.6% year-on-year contraction recorded in the
previous quarter.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the
sector shrank by 5.2% in the first quarter, a reversal from the 1% expansion in
the fourth quarter of 2022. The ministry noted there was an output contraction across
all manufacturing clusters, except for transport engineering.
More
Singapore's
central bank sees dim growth, lower inflation in 2023 (cnbc.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Brain
Injuries After COVID Vaccination
April 12, 2023
There are back door routes to the brain. COVID vaccine developers have traversed a path through those doors. And they knew they had entered the brain by November 2020, before the vaccine rollout.
We have 86 billion neurons in the human brain, and each of those connects with 10,000 other neurons. No other structure in the known universe rivals the brain’s complexity.
The brain is also the most exclusive club, so to speak, in the body. The
gatekeeper is the blood-brain barrier (BBB). That barrier, shown in the second
illustration below, is mostly composed of tight junctions between endothelial
cells that line, in a single layer, the capillaries (our smallest blood
vessels) that nourish the brain. So the BBB is in effect the capillary walls
and the tight junctions between its cells.
However, to some extent, there is a liquid component to the BBB, in that the pristine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) that bathes the brain and spinal cord is kept pure by the BBB.
At the risk of oversimplifying, if the central nervous system, which
includes the brain and spinal cord, is the royalty of the body, then the skull
and vertebrae and BBB are the castle walls, and the CSF is the moat—but a clean
moat—unlike the medieval ones. Intruding molecules and pathogens would have to
traverse both solid and liquid barriers.
Capillaries are the smallest blood vessels, and they are everywhere in
the body. They are the U-turn points where arteries and then smaller arterioles
give way to capillaries, then venules, and then veins in blood’s perpetual
round-trip from the heart to everywhere else and back again. Anywhere you can
point to on your body has a dense and intricate network of capillaries under
the skin.
The bottleneck of the BBB is
comprised of the tight junctions between capillary wall endothelial cells,
prohibiting passage of most substances, as detailed below. Those ubiquitous
capillaries run through the entire body, and in the brain they are 40
micrometers apart, which is a space in which two neurons can fit. [1] So every
neuron in the brain is nourished by an adjacent capillary.
----A typical pharmacology strategy to enter the brain is chaperoning, in which substances that do not typically cross the BBB are compounded together with substances that do cross, which may mimic endogenous molecules. Lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) carry medications into cells but rarely cross the BBB alone. Monoclonal antibodies have shepherded LNPs across the BBB. [4] Enzymes interact with cell membranes and can be used. [5]
Also, if previously non-BBB-crossing LNPs are linked to neurotransmitter-derived synthetic lipids, then they can cross the BBB and carry medications or other chemicals with them, and then those LNPs can enter neurons. [6] The reason for this is that neurotransmitters are typically in the brain—and belong in the brain—and generally pass without gatekeeping.
In other words, when a Trojan horse molecule such as an LNP is dressed
up with a neurotransmitter that would typically belong in the brain, it fools
the blood-brain barrier into allowing passage inside the brain.
More
Brain Injuries After COVID Vaccination
(theepochtimes.com)
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Issues Surrounding the Increased Demand for Critical
Metals
Apr 12 2023
As automobile electrification cranks up, the world faces an
overwhelming need for critical metals and minerals to make atmosphere-saving
electric vehicles possible.
According to new Cornell research published on April 11th, 2023, in Nature
Communications, demand for battery-grade lithium, nickel, cobalt,
manganese, and platinum will rise sharply as nations work to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions through mid-century, but will probably trigger economic snags and
supply-chain disruptions.
Electrification and
decarbonizing fuel production are critical for adequately mitigating greenhouse
gas emissions from road transportation.
Improving the efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles can cut
greenhouse gas emissions, but deep decarbonization for the road
transportation sector requires electrification and a shift to cleaner energy,
such as electricity generated from renewable sources.
Fengqi You, Study Senior Author and Roxanne E. and
Michael J. Zak Professor, Energy Systems Engineering, Cornell University
In the new study, You and his
colleagues evaluated 48 key countries dedicated to playing a significant role
in electrifying transportation, including the United States, China, and India.
Monotonic growth in global demand for critical
metals to 2050 is the most prevalent trend. It’s mainly driven by the electric
vehicle market penetration and battery technology development.
Fengqi You, Study Senior
Author and Roxanne E. and Michael J. Zak Professor, Energy Systems Engineering,
Cornell University
If 40% of vehicles become electric by
2050, the worldwide demand for lithium will increase by 2,909% from the level
in 2020. If all vehicles are electric by 2050, the demand for lithium will more
than double to 7,513%.
In a world where all vehicles are
electric, the annual demand for lithium will rise from 747 metric tons to 2.2
million metric tons between 2010 and 2050.
By mid-century, for instance, nickel
demand will have surpassed that of other key metals, with global demand ranging
from 2 million metric tons in a world where 40% of vehicles are electric to 5.2
million metric tons in a world where all vehicles are electric.
According to the research, annual
demand for cobalt (0.3 to 0.8 million metric tons) and manganese (0.2 to 0.5
million metric tons) will increase by the same order of magnitude in 2050.
According to the World Bank, key
metals and minerals are currently centralized in politically unstable Congo,
Chile, Brazil, Indonesia, Argentina, and South Africa.
More
Issues Surrounding
the Increased Demand for Critical Metals (azocleantech.com)
Another
weekend and almost time to start evaluating the start to the winter planted northern
hemisphere crops. If planet Earth is to get any relief from persistent, not
transitory, food price inflation in 2023, we should start noticing how the
early grain crops are doing in another one to two weeks. Have a great weekend
everyone.
“The
singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to
worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been
only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to
maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the
common misfortune.
The
fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently
got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be
another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost.
The man
with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash
came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. …..The bargains then suffered
a ruinous fall.
Even the man who waited out all of October and
all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall
Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks
would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the
next twenty-four months.
The
Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its
liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable."
J. K. Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
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