Baltic Dry Index. 1412 +23 Brent Crude 85.29
Spot Gold 1952 US 2 Year Yield 3.97 -0.09
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 04/04/23 World 684,140,494
Deaths 6,832,670
I knew something was wrong somewhere, but I couldn’t spot it exactly. But if something was coming and I didn’t know where from, I couldn’t be on my guard against it. That being the case I’d better be out of the market.
Jesse Livermore.
The big media news today will be the Anti-Trump show trial getting underway in New York City. Well over covered in mainstream media, we will instead cover today’s other news trivia.
From where I watch global commodity and stock markets from EUSSR free, inflation and interest rate rising UK, the picture to me is of stagflation arriving. Very few make money during stagflation. It’s a good time for most to be out of most markets awaiting further developments.
Though it’s far to early to start guessing the outcome of the northern hemisphere crops, the Kansas winter wheat crop is off to a worrying start due to lack of rains. Spain is in a second year of record drought. France, a large part of Germany and all of northern Italy are in drought.
Due to sky high prices, fertiliser use is being reduced where it’s available at all. It’s anyone’s guess how much grain and oilseed production will come out of Ukraine this summer.
Though there is still time for the northern hemisphere crops picture to improve, to this old dinosaur commodities follower it seems unlikely that food price inflation will end this year.
By accident yesterday I was in my local Morrison’s supermarket as the butchers section began dumping masses of pork ribs and filet steak marked down by 60 percent. Enquiring why, I was told the cost of living crisis has priced it out of the reach of most in this supermarket’s area. He said that even with this mark down most of it wouldn’t sell and just be scrapped at the end of the day.
To help out, I picked up some fillet steak marked down from £10 to £4.
Worrying times.
Asia markets mixed as Australia’s central bank
holds rates steady, Aussie falls
UPDATED TUE, APR 4 2023 12:42 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed rose on Tuesday
after the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate target steady at 3.60%
with the Australian dollar weakening
against the U.S. dollar following the move.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 erased
earlier gains and last inched up 0.16%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also
rose 0.26%, and the Topix climbed 0.15%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.46% up,
while the Kosdaq index was higher by nearly 0.5%.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was
0.8% lower, while the Hang Seng Tech index saw a larger loss at 2%. In mainland
China, the Shenzhen Component lost
0.4%, while the Shanghai
Composite rose 0.16%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also
rose 0.26%, and the Topix climbed 0.15%. South Korea’s Kospi was 0.46% up,
while the Kosdaq index was higher by nearly 0.5%.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was
0.8% lower, while the Hang Seng Tech index saw a larger loss at 2%. In mainland
China, the Shenzhen Component lost
0.4%, while the Shanghai
Composite rose 0.16%.
Australia’s central bank keeps rates unchanged at 3.6%
The Reserve Bank of
Australia has held its
its benchmark interest rate at 3.6%.
“The decision to
hold interest rates steady this month provides the Board with more time to
assess the state of the economy and the outlook, in an environment of
considerable uncertainty,” the central bank said in its statement.
This marks the
first halt in the RBA’s hiking cycle since it started raising rates in April
2022.
The Australian dollar weakened
following the move to 0.6782 against the U.S. dollar.
Asia
markets mixed as Australia's central bank holds rates steady, Aussie falls
(cnbc.com)
Oil
prices rise as investors move focus from OPEC+ cuts to demand outlook
April 4, 2023 5:37 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, April 4
(Reuters) - Oil prices posted gains in Asian trade on Tuesday after OPEC+ plans
to cut more production jolted markets the previous day, with investors'
attention shifting to demand trends and the impact of higher prices on the
global economy.
Brent
crude futures were up 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $85.34 a barrel by 0400 GMT. U.S.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $80.83 a barrel, up
41 cents, or 0.5%.
Both benchmarks
jumped more than 6% on Monday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+,
rocked markets with Sunday's announcement of plans to lower
output targets by a further 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd).
The
latest pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd
including a 2 million barrel cut last October, according to Reuters calculations
- equal to about 3.7% of global demand.
"The buying
spree from the OPEC+ output cut has calmed down and market attention has
shifted to the future demand outlook," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president
of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.
"In
the short term, demand is expected to rise for the summer driving season, but
higher oil prices may intensify inflationary pressures and prolong interest
rate hikes in many countries, which could dampen demand," he said.
Kikukawa noted the impact could also reignite concerns about the global financial
industry.
The
OPEC+ production curbs led most analysts to raise their Brent oil price forecasts to
around $100 per barrel by year-end. Goldman Sachs lifted its forecast for
Brent to $95 a barrel by the end of this year, and to $100 for 2024.
The
news, however, added to investor worries about higher costs for businesses and
consumers, raising fears that an inflationary jolt to the world economy from
rising oil prices will result in more rate hikes.
More
Oil
prices rise as investors move focus from OPEC+ cuts to demand outlook | Reuters
Finally, is the UK commercial real estate boom turning to bust? Or is it just a normal real estate correction to higher interest rates reducing demand?
Is the US real estate bubble over?
Over £200bn wiped off
real estate value in largest-ever property write-down in the UK
April 3, 2023
A total of £210billion has been wiped off the value of
Britain's commercial real estate in the past nine months, according to a
report. The UK's non-residential building stock (excluding land value) was
worth £899billion at the end of 2020, according to the Office for National
Statistics (ONS).
By the
middle of last year, the value of these buildings had probably risen to about
£1trillion, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr)
analysis released today (April 3).
Since mid-2022, the market has collapsed with
Schroders Research estimating the value to now be down a fifth, or £210billion,
from June's peak.
This would be the largest ever property write-down
in the UK and three times the £71billion fall between the end of 2008 and the
end of 2010, Cebr says.
Cebr says the consensus amongst property analysts is
the market is likely to stabilise somewhere near its current level, provided
there are relatively limited forced sales. The centre's own forecasts are
similar.
Cebr Benjamin Trevis told Express.co.uk: "Estimates show
the commercial property market has fallen by three times the value of the
write-down seen after the financial crash in 2008.
"This
result demonstrates the negative consequences of tighter monetary policy and is
troubling for an already-stagnating UK economy.
"Due to
differing underlying issues presented to the sector, we expect lower future
investment to prove the main negative outcome, rather than a repeat of the
crisis 15 years ago.
"Additionally,
although lowering interest rates could potentially address the decline, this
prospect looks unlikely until at least the end of this year due to stubbornly
high consumer inflation."
More
Over
£200bn wiped off real estate value in largest-ever property write-down in the
UK (msn.com)
Manhattan real estate sales plunge 38%, but cash
deals hit all-time record
Manhattan real estate
sales fell 38% in the first quarter, as buyers and sellers battled over prices
and mortgage rates remained volatile, according to new reports.
Total sales volume
fell to $4.4 billion in the quarter, with 2,242 apartments and townhouses sold,
compared to 2,546 sales in the first quarter of 2022, according to a report
from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The average sales price fell 5% to
$1.95 million and the median sales price fell 10% to $1.075 million, according
to the report.
The drop in sales and
prices follows a 29% decline in the fourth quarter, and suggests that the
nation’s largest real estate market is correcting after a post-pandemic boom in
prices and demand. The big question for brokers, buyers and sellers is where
the new “bottom” will be in Manhattan.
“I think we’ll see a
seasonal uptick in the spring,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the
appraisal and research firm. “But some of it depends on whether the [Federal
Reserve] holds rates where they are.”
Brokers say the
biggest challenge for deals is the wide gap between buyer and seller price
expectations. Relatively low levels of inventory, or unsold listings, means
that buyers still don’t have much choice in Manhattan. There were 6,996 homes
on the market in the first quarter, slightly lower than the five-year average
of around 7,200, according to Miller Samuel.
“There still is a
disconnect between buyers and sellers,” said Jason Haber at Compass. “Sellers
are not slashing prices left and right to get deals done. They have confidence.
They feel like ‘if I lose a buyer there’s another one down the road waiting.’
There is a no panic selling, or thinking they have to get out now.”
Sellers have trimmed
prices, but not enough for today’s bargain-hunting buyers.
More
Manhattan real estate sales plunge 38%, but cash deals hit record (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK economy on
tightrope between recession and growth as exports slip but inflationary
pressure eases in March
3
April 2023
Manufacturing fell in March,
although fears the UK economy is entering a recession may be premature as
inflation eased and average supplier lead times improved.
The seasonally
adjusted S&P Global /CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell
to 47.9 in March, down from February’s seven-month high of 49.3 and an earlier
flash estimate of 48.0.
The PMI has
stayed below the neutral 50.0 mark for eight successive months.
Analyst said
although the data allowed room for optimism the manufacturing sector was “not
out of the woods just yet” although, March’s PMI suggests that the downturn now
is bottoming out.
Gabriella
Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon said: ” While the headline index
remained below the 50.0 mark for the eighth month in a row, driven by a renewed
decline in the output index to 49.0, from 50.9, the new orders index rose back
above 50.0 for the first time since May 2022, reflecting a slight improvement
in domestic demand. Manufacturers also were the most upbeat about the 12-month
outlook since February 2022. “
“Note, though,
that manufacturing output still was boosted in March by the firms working through
order backlogs; this support won’t last much longer.”
“Looking
ahead, the near-term outlook for consumer demand has improved, following the
government’s decisions to maintain both the Energy Price Guarantee and fuel
duty at its current level in the Spring Budget, thereby averting a 1 per cent
hit to real incomes.
“But business investment likely will remain weak this year, due to higher interest rates and the fact that the government’s announcement of full capital expensing in the next three years came too late to prevent investment from falling sharply at the end of the super-deduction policy.
“Accordingly,
we think that manufacturing output will flatline over the coming months.
and finished products were both depleted during the latest month.”
Rob Dobson,
director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK manufacturing
production fell back into contraction at the end of the opening quarter, as
companies scaled back production in response to subdued market conditions.
Although total new orders saw a fractional increase, this followed on from a
nine-month sequence of contraction and suggests that order book levels remain
low overall.”
“Declining new
export order intakes remain a significant drain on demand, offsetting signs of
a modest revival in the domestic market.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Analysis: COVID Vaccines Caused
300,000 Excess Deaths in 2022 Alone
John Leake Dr.
Peter A. McCullough, MD
Apr 1 2023
Every day Dr. McCullough and I speak to people who have been injured—or have a family member who has been killed—by one of the COVID-19 vaccines. Almost every day, McCullough examines one or more patients with vaccine injuries in his clinical practice. Because he has become a “go-to” doctor for people who are suffering from these syndromes, his view of the problem is not statistical, but at the individual human level.
The United States has a census-counted population of 332 million [estimate by U.S. Census Bureau, July 1, 2021]. Thus, if even a small percentage of these people are injured or killed by COVID-19 vaccines, it’s still a frightful number.
Consider that 58,220 men were killed in ten years of fighting in
Vietnam. This was just a tiny percentage of the 100 million American men
counted in the 1968 census, but it was still a huge number of men to die in
their early twenties.
Yesterday, former BlackRock portfolio manager Ed Dowd and his analysts at the research firm, Phinance Technologies, published a report on the cost of the COVID-19 vaccine program in the United States for the year 2022.
I know from multiple, probing conversations with Dowd that he is a conservative analyst. A serious and sober-minded man, he is ruthless in eliminating biases and wild assumptions. He and his team have focused their research on the 148 million Americans (between the ages of 18–64) who are employed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles much data on this cohort, as does the life insurance industry because many employed people receive policies as part of their compensation packages.
Dowd’s report is grim. As he encapsulated the results in a tweet:
---- As a true crime author, I always focus on the human cost. I know that the death of a single young person can devastate a family and even an entire community. “26.6 million injuries; 1.36 million disabilities; 300,000 excess deaths.” Note that this death count in one year is 5.2 times the number of men killed in ten years of combat in Vietnam.
Perhaps the most extraordinary
thing about this state of affairs is that most Americans don’t know it’s
happening. Every day, young people are dying from heart attacks, strokes, and
seizures caused by COVID-19 vaccines. Most of their families and friends are
led to believe that they just died—suddenly and unexpectedly—of acute
conditions that were extremely rare in young people prior to 2021.
Read the
full Phinance Technologies Report.
Analysis: COVID Vaccines Caused 300,000 Excess Deaths
in 2022 Alone (theepochtimes.com)
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Spain
reports soaring number of hybrid wind-solar projects now under review
Spain’s Ministry for the Ecological Transition says
it is now reviewing a significant amount of hybrid wind-solar power projects.
The developers include Iberdrola, Acciona, Forestalia, Ignis, and Enel Green
Power.
APRIL
3, 2023
Spain's Ministry for the Ecological Transition has recently started
to review approvals for numerous projects that combine PV with wind power. The
developers include Spanish energy giant Iberdrola, renewables producer Acciona, project developer Forestalia, energy company Ignis , and Enel Green Power, the renewable energy unit of Italian
utility Enel.
Iberdrola is the developer with the largest share, split into 11
proposals, including some initiatives to hybridize existing plants and some to
develop new hybrid schemes. The Spanish utility wants to build a series of
solar plants to be connected to existing wind facilities in Spain.
Acciona, meanwhile, has submitted a proposal to hybridize a wind
power facility with a 31.4 MW solar plant in Albacete, and another proposal to
connect a wind plant with a 26.5 MW PV array in Jerez de la Frontera. It says
it plans to hybridize two wind facilities in Palencia with a 31 MW solar
facility and a wind power plant in Albacete with a 52 MW solar farm.
Ignis has submitted a proposal to build a 282.2 MW hybrid plant in
Zaragoza, while Enerpal has revealed plans to build a 30 MW solar
installation close to a wind plant in Palencia.
Madrid-based Grupo Arrate says it wants to build a 107.8 MW hybrid
park in Albacete and a 171.2 MW installation in Olmedilla. Enel Green Power,
meanwhile, says it plans to deploy a 259.2 MW plant in Teruel. In
addition, Forestalia says it wants to couple a 42.5 MW solar plant with
two existing wind facilities in Zaragoza, totaling 126 MW of capacity.
Spain currently hosts one of the world's first hybrid wind-solar
projects – a 3.3 MW demonstration project built in 2018 by Portuguese
utility EDP and Danish wind specialist Vestas near Cadiz, Andalucía, in
southern Spain.
I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There
can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the
stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never
forgotten that.
Jesse
Livermore.
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