Saturday 8 April 2023

Easter Special Update 08/04/2023 Over The Top.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1560 +35        Brent Crude 85.12

Spot Gold 2008            U S 2 Year Yield 3.97 +0.15  

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 08/04/23 World 684,885,094

Deaths 6,837,506

For crying out loud the inflation-adjusted Fed funds rate is still -1.9%, meaning that the FOMC is so far behind the inflation curve that they can barely see its tail lights.

And we are not talking here about a few months of excessive rate repression that needs correction. To the contrary, during the past 180 months—since the eve of the GFC in March 2008—the Fed funds rate has been negative in real terms 96% of the time.

David Stockman.

Why The Fed Is An SDI (Systematically Dangerous Institution) (substack.com)

When is Easter? 

When is Easter? - YouTube

Approx. 12 interesting minutes. Some interesting comments too.

 

Happy Easter, everyone.

Not much need for input from me this Easter weekend. The articles speak loudly for themselves.

Recession is coming. The US proxy war on Russia is destroying Ukraine and eastern European farming plus German industry.

With the paymaster of continental Europe crumbling, how long before the rump-EUSSR starts to split?

More banking crisis lies ahead.

More crypto currency turmoil lies ahead.

More cost of living social disorders and strikes in Europe lies ahead.

Our G-7 “leadership” has never looked more irrelevant or inept.

Job growth totals 236,000 in March, near expectations as hiring pace slows

Nonfarm payrolls growth in March was about in line with expectations, but showed signs that the jobs picture is in the early stages of a slowdown.

The Labor Department reported Friday that payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for 238,000 and below the upwardly revised 326,000 in February.

The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%, with the decrease coming as labor force participation increased to its highest level since before the Covid pandemic.

Though it was close to what economists had expected, the total was the lowest monthly gain since December 2020 and comes amid efforts from the Federal Reserve to slow labor demand in order to cool inflation.

Along with the payroll gains came a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, pushing the 12-month increase to 4.2%, the lowest level since June 2021. The average work week edged lower to 34.4 hours.

“Everything is moving in the right direction,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. “I have never seen a report align with expectations as much today’s over the last two years.”

Though the stock market is closed for Good Friday, futures rose following the report. Treasury yields also moved higher.

----The report comes amid a bevy of signs that job creation is on wane.

In separate reports this week, companies reported that layoffs surged in March, up nearly 400% from a year ago, while jobless claims were elevated and private payroll growth also appeared to slow. The Labor Department also had reported that job openings fell below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years.

That all has followed a year-long Fed campaign to loosen up what had been a historically tight labor market. The central bank has boosted its benchmark borrowing rate by 4.75 percentage points, the quickest tightening cycle since the early 1980s in an effort to bring down spiraling inflation.

The job gains came during a month in which the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rocked the financial world. Economists expect the banking troubles to have repercussions in coming months.

“The March data effectively are a look back into the pre-SVB world; the payroll survey was conducted the week after the bank failed, far too soon for employers to have responded. But the hit from tighter credit conditions is coming,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Several Fed officials said this week they remain committed to the inflation fight and see interest rates staying elevated at least in the near term. Market pricing shifted following Friday’s report, with traders now expecting the Fed to implement one last quarter percentage point hike in May.

More

Jobs report March 2023: (cnbc.com)

Ties That Bind Asset Classes Have Come Loose

6 April 2023 at 23:22 BST

Treasury yields tumble the most in a decade as gold soars, stocks sit at two-month highs and credit spreads tighten. It’s a mess out there, and divining a unified signal from markets has rarely been harder. The ties that normally bind asset classes have come loose.

Treasuries and equities both gained last month. Treasury turbulence remains well above stock volatility after March saw the widest gap between the two since 2008. Gold neared an all-time high on rate-cut bets even as credit traders showed confidence in company balanced sheets. And investors keep pouring cash into money market funds. Indeed, about $350 billion flowed into them in the four weeks ending April 5—pushing assets to a record $5.25 trillion.

Meanwhile, stocks on Thursday eked out small gains as traders await Friday’s key US jobs report. Big tech led a rebound in equities, which garnered a respite after Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he didn’t think tight credit conditions stemming from recent banking turmoil will cause a recession.

----Goldman Sachs says the approaching US earnings season is expected to be the gloomiest since the first year of the pandemic. Analyst consensus expectations are for S&P 500 earnings-per-share to fall 7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, marking the sharpest decline since the third quarter of 2020 and a low point in the profit cycle, the bank’s strategists wrote in an investor note.

 

US banks are pitted against each other as regulators move to strengthen oversight. In particular, regional banks, which are more likely to face new rules, are trying to convince regulators to increase oversight of larger ones—which may have to cover a larger portion of the costs of recent bailouts. Meanwhile, Congress—which loosened regulations in 2018—is less amenable than ever to lobbying pitches for weaker regulation.

More

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Ties That Bind Asset Classes Have Come Loose - Bloomberg

 

Professor Patrick Boyle on our latest banking crisis. Approx. 18 minutes.

Jamie Dimon Warns Banking Crisis 'Is Not Yet Over!'

Jamie Dimon Warns Banking Crisis 'Is Not Yet Over!' - YouTube


In bankster news, “trust me I’m a bankster” has never worked less.

U.S. banks are dangling promotions to lock in customer deposits, analysts say

NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - For months, consumers have clamored for banks to pay out more for deposits as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Now analysts say after the banking crisis shook markets last month, lenders appear to be rejigging offers in an effort to keep customers' cash parked in their accounts for longer.

U.S. banks are trying to woo depositors by offering signing bonuses to open new accounts or deposit money on a regular basis. The promotions are running at a time when the failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank last month spooked customers, prompting them to move $119 billion out of smaller institutions.

Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) is advertising a $100 bonus for opening a new savings account and keeping more than $10,000 in it for 90 days. The offer ramps up to a bonus of $1,000 for deposits of over $100,000. Discover Financial Services (DFS.N) and LendingClub (LC.N) are offering similar perks, which were in effect before the bank runs began.

 

Citizens Financial Group (CFG.N) is offering a $25 bonus for customers who put in $100 a month for three months and maintaining a minimum balance, according to emails sent to customers after March 10. The offer is part of a pre-planned campaign to promote healthy savings habits, and not in reaction to specific events, Citizens spokeswoman Eleni Garbis said in a statement.

Capital One and Discover did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Paying more for deposits is an effective way for banks to keep customers loyal, analysts said.

"As rates have risen, high-yield savings accounts have become fashionable once again with some banks competing aggressively to stay at the top of the rate tables that consumers rely on for comparison purposes," said Andrew Davidson, chief insights officer at Mintel, a market intelligence agency.

"The intense competition has been further fueled by an overall drop in deposits with more firms reaching out to customer in the last few weeks," he added.

More

U.S. banks are dangling promotions to lock in customer deposits, analysts say | Reuters

Exclusive: German banks hit by wave of complaints from savers

FRANKFURT, April 6 (Reuters) - Complaints from consumers about banks and other financial firms in Germany rose by a fifth last year, official data shows, as regulators flex their muscles to shore up trust in the sector.

BaFin, Germany's financial watchdog, has been increasing its focus on consumer protection in the wake of the collapse of Wirecard, the blue-chip payment company that folded in an accounting scandal.

It received 15,000 complaints from consumers in Europe's largest economy about their banks and other financial service providers last year, up from 12,500 in 2021 and a fourth consecutive year of sharp increases.

Gripes include long processing times for account closures, changes to terms and conditions, and shrinking branch networks, according to officials, bankers and consumer protection advocates.

The figures, reported by Reuters for the first time, will be made public in an annual report in May.

"It cannot be that financial institutions are doing well because they treat their customers badly," Chan-Jae Yoo, a BaFin official, said in an interview.

Deutsche Kreditwirtschaft, an umbrella organisation that lobbies for German finance, said German banks are "extremely stable and robust" and confidence remains "high" and "unaffected" by recent turmoil stemming from the collapse of lenders in the United States and Switzerland.

But a survey last year by YouGov showed that degree of trust in Germany's financial sector, essential for promoting wider financial stability and attracting capital to support economic growth, was below the global average, lagging the likes of Canada, Australia and major Asian markets.

More

Exclusive: German banks hit by wave of complaints from savers | Reuters

UBS chairman warns over 'huge amount of risk' of integrating Credit Suisse after £2.6bn rescue

April 6, 2023

The chairman of UBS has warned the bank faces 'a huge amount of risk' as it tries to integrate its collapsed rival Credit Suisse following an emergency takeover.

Colm Kelleher told the Swiss lender's annual general meeting in Basel that while the £2.6bn rescue was a 'milestone', it was 'not in any way an easy deal'.

With shareholders lining up to express concern, he said the integration could take up to four years, saying: 'You cannot just put numbers together and reach a sum - you have to understand there is a huge amount of risk in integrating these businesses.'

UBS vice-chairman Lukas Gaehwiler said unifying operations would be 'a Herculean task'.

The deal was cobbled together two weeks ago in a 'shotgun marriage' orchestrated by the Swiss government and other officials. 

Vincent Kaufmann, chief executive of the Ethos foundation, which represents around 3pc of UBS investors, was 'concerned about this giant new bank', which will turn UBS into the world's fourth-largest lender with £4trillion in assets. 

He said that the deal concentrated a 'huge' amount of risk in the Swiss market into a single entity.

Other investors called on UBS to learn lessons from its collapsed rival to avoid the same fate. 

'We need to radically change the culture of bonuses... otherwise we will be waking up one day with UBS having gone down the drain as well,' said Martin Schutz, a shareholder.

UBS chairman warns over 'huge amount of risk' of integrating Credit Suisse after £2.6bn rescue (msn.com)

Decentralized Cryptocurrency Markets Threaten U.S. Security, Treasury Says

In new report, the department lays foundation for regulation, enforcement of ‘DeFi’ markets

April 6, 2023 10:27 am ET

WASHINGTON—The burgeoning decentralized cryptocurrency market threatens U.S. national security and needs greater oversight and enforcement against money-laundering, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.

The warning, in a new Treasury report assessing the risk of the so-called DeFi markets, lays the foundation for tougher regulations and punitive action by federal agencies.

DeFi platforms enable crypto investors to transact with each other through software running online, without a central intermediary overseeing transactions. Without the intermediaries of traditional finance such as banks, regulators currently have little insight into DeFi transactions. 

Ransomware hackers, rogue states and other national security threats have seized upon the market’s opaqueness to move money around the world without detection, facilitating the financing critical to their operations, the Treasury Department report said.

“Illicit actors, including criminals, scammers, and North Korean cyber actors are using DeFi services in the process of laundering illicit funds,” said Brian Nelson, Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. “Capturing the potential benefits associated with DeFi services requires addressing these risks.”

The report sketches out how the Treasury Department plans to bring the market under greater federal oversight, suggesting that platforms that fail to establish sufficient vetting policies risk enforcement action.

More

Decentralized Cryptocurrency Markets Threaten U.S. Security, Treasury Says - WSJ

Finally, that endless US-Ukrainian proxy war on Russia is now destroying farming in Poland and Romania.

Romanian farmers block borders in protest over Ukrainian grain imports

BUCHAREST, April 7 (Reuters) - Thousands of farmers protested across Romania on Friday over the impact of Ukrainian grain imports on prices, blocking traffic and border checkpoints with tractors and trucks and urging the European Commission to intervene.

Anger is rising among farmers in Central and Eastern Europe over a flood of cheap Ukrainian grain imports, exempt from customs fees until June 2024, which have hurt prices and sales of local producers.

Ukraine, one of the world's largest grain exporters, had its Black Sea ports blocked following Russia's February 2022 invasion and found alternative shipping routes through European Union states Poland and Romania, helped by "solidarity lanes" supported by the EU.

But millions of tonnes of grain - cheaper than those produced in the EU - ended up in neighbouring countries, propelled by logistical bottlenecks and lesser distances.

Polish Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk resigned from his post this week. Polish and Bulgarian farmers have also held protests.

In the capital Bucharest on Friday, about 200 farmers protested outside the European Commission’s local headquarters, carrying banners which read: "We respected EU rules but EU ignored us", "You can no longer pass through here" and "Stability for Romanian farmers".

Across the country, thousands of farmers used tractors, trucks and other machinery to block roads and borders.

"We are talking about unfair competition in the European community," said Nicu Vasile, the head of the league of Romanian associations of farm producers (LAPAR).

"I know our Ukrainian colleagues also need to sell, but it is unfair competition, however."

Vasile said production costs of wheat have risen 70% on the year to 6,000 lei ($1,326) per hectare.

The commission has estimated farmers from Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia have lost 417 million euros ($455 million) overall from the inflows of cheaper Ukrainian grains. It decided to hand out compensation worth 56.3 million euros to Polish, Bulgarian and Romanian farmers, with more to come.

"It's a concrete measure, but the sums are small, it is true," Romanian Farm Minister Petre Daea said on Friday. The ministry will double the amount given to Romania.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he expected decisions to be announced in coming days and weeks to alleviate anger among Polish farmers. Six prime ministers in the region have asked the commission to intervene.

Romanian farmers block borders in protest over Ukrainian grain imports | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

'Powell's curve' plunges to new lows, flashing US recession warning

NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's preferred bond market signal of an upcoming recession has plunged to fresh lows, bolstering the case for those who believe the central bank will soon need to cut rates in order to revive economic activity.

Research from the Fed has argued that the "near-term forward spread" comparing the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now with the current yield on a three-month Treasury bill was the most reliable bond market signal of an imminent economic contraction.

That spread, which has been in negative territory since November, plunged to new lows this week, standing at nearly minus 170 basis points on Thursday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last year that the 18-month U.S. Treasury yield curve was the most reliable warning of an upcoming recession.

"Powell's curve ... continues to plunge to fresh century lows," Citi rates strategists William O'Donnell and Edward Acton said in a note on Thursday. Refinitiv data showed the curve was the most inverted since at least 2007.

More

'Powell's curve' plunges to new lows, flashing US recession warning | Reuters

Half a trillion in debt haircuts essential for sustainability - study

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Up to half a trillion dollars in debt needs to be written off to help developing nations at greatest risk of default return to sounder fiscal footing and meet climate and development goals, according to a Boston University report released on Thursday.

The haircuts on debt owed to public and private creditors by 61 of the nations that are already in or are at most risk of debt distress are essential to avoid "cascading defaults," according to calculations from the Boston University Global Development Policy Center and the Debt Relief for a Green and Inclusive Recovery (DRGR) Project.

"Without ambitious debt relief, many of the poorest countries don't have a chance," said Kevin P. Gallagher, DRGR project co-chair and director of the Boston University Global Development Policy Center.

The COVID-19 pandemic, followed by food and fuel shocks in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, put enormous strain on public finances and led to soaring borrowing costs.

At the same time, emerging market sovereign debt increased by 178% since the global financial crisis, rising to $3.9 trillion by 2021, the report found, and the structure of lenders became increasingly complex.

The researchers found that some $812 billion in debt across all creditor classes should be in scope for restructuring.

To achieve the best outcome, researchers proposed to include instruments that had alleviated previous emerging market debt crises.

This included a guarantee facility that would provide enhancements - or forms of guarantees - for newly issued Brady bonds focussed on green and inclusive recovery which private and commercial creditors can swap with a significant haircut against old debt, the report said.

"The proposal is in many ways a modern-day version of the Brady Plan and the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative of the 1990s combined — the last time that debt distress threatened our development goals."

More, much, much more.

Half a trillion in debt haircuts essential for sustainability - study | Reuters

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Another Covid vaccine fails.

AstraZeneca vaccine banned. Approx. 16 minutes.

AZ vaccine banned in Australia

AZ vaccine banned in Australia - YouTube


World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

No update this Easter weekend.

This weekend something Different for Easter. Three music diversions.  Up first Prague’s very talented F. X. Brixi again. Approx. 16  minutes.

F.X. Brixi Organ Concerto in D major, Vera Hermanova

F.X. Brixi Organ Concerto in D major, Vera Hermanova - YouTube

František Brixi

---Brixi was born in Prague,[1] the son of composer Šimon Brixi.[2] He received his musical education at the Piarist Gymnasium in Kosmonosy.[1] His teachers included Václav Kalous [cs], a significant composer himself.[2]

In 1749 Brixi left Kosmonosy and returned to Prague, where he worked as an organist at several churches.[2] In 1759 he was appointed Regens chori (choir director) and Kapellmeister of St Vitus Cathedral, thus attaining, at age 27, the highest musical position in the city;[a][1] this office he held till his early death. He wrote some 290 church works (of the most varied type), cantatas and oratorioschamber compositions, and orchestral compositions. He was a prolific composer of music for the liturgy, and wrote more than 100 masses,[4] vespers and motets, among others. He also composed secular music such as oratorios and incidental musicconcertos and symphonies.[5][6][7] His organ concertos, which have been recorded several times each, are his best-known pieces today.

Brixi died of tuberculosis in Prague in 1771, at the age of 39.[1]

More

František Brixi - Wikipedia

This Easter weekend’s second music diversion. Vivaldi again.  Approx. 8 minutes.

Antonio Vivaldi: Concerto for 2 horns, strings & b.c. in F major (RV 539)

Antonio Vivaldi: Concerto for 2 horns, strings & b.c. in F major (RV 539) - YouTube

This Easter weekend’s final music diversion.  Approx. 9 minutes.

Johann David Heinichen, Concerto en ré majeur S.226 pour violon, flute, hautbois, théorbe et cordes

Johann David Heinichen, Concerto en ré majeur S.226 pour violon, flute, hautbois, théorbe et cordes - YouTube

This weekend’s Easter bonus, Why Afghanistan ended in total fiasco.

It was all Trump’s fault, no honest it was, cross my heart and hope to die. “Because he didn’t have a plan, we didn’t have a plan either, besides who knew you needed a plan anyway?”   

Duke of Medina Sidonia, Admiral Kirby sinks his fleet. Probably why it was released right ahead of Good Friday and the Easter holiday weekend. Hopefully no one will ever notice.

Approx. 5 minutes of cringeworthy, prevaricating, fibbing and dissembling.

‘Is This All We Get?’: Reporter Grills John Kirby On 12-Page Afghanistan Withdrawal Report

‘Is This All We Get?’: Reporter Grills John Kirby On 12-Page Afghanistan Withdrawal Report - YouTube

In 2001 [UK] Labour aide Jo Moore faced stern criticism after suggesting the September 11 attacks were a "good day to bury bad news".

Miss Moore, who worked for Stephen Byers, at the Secretary of State for Transport, Local Government and the Regions, was widely condemned for showing spin at its worst when her news management memo was leaked.

She resigned the following year, but the perception that government might occasionally look to "bury" news stories during big events remained.

 

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