Baltic Dry Index. 1389 -14 Brent Crude 84.01
Spot Gold 1952 US 2 Year Yield 4.06 -0.04
Coronavirus
Cases 01/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 03/04/23 World 684,071,424
Deaths 6,832,247
“Our natural,
inalienable rights are now considered to be a dispensation from government, and
freedom has never been so fragile, so close to slipping from our grasp as it is
at this moment.”
In a surprise move that means more energy price inflation to come, OPEC+ is cutting their oil production through the end of 2023.
But with more energy price inflation to come to add to persistent food price inflation, it puts the global central banksters over a barrel.
While raising interest rates will do nothing to end food and energy price inflation, this probably means no interest rate cuts will come until well into 2024.
President Biden’s re-election chances look to be sunk by the Saudi Crown Prince’s feud with the US President. Can’t blame this one on former President Trump.
Mistakenly, in my opinion, Asian stock casinos rallied.
We are in for lively, if very erratic rest of 2023 and that’s before tomorrow’s US political show trial gets underway in New York City.
Interesting times, indeed.
Asia markets rise
as oil surges after surprise OPEC+ cut; investors digest factory data
UPDATED SUN, APR 2 2023 10:52 PM
EDT
Asia-Pacific
markets largely rose on Monday as investors further digested key manufacturing
data in the region.
Brent crude futures
and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures
(WTI) surged as much as 8% after OPEC+ members agreed to cut more
than 1 million barrels per day to extend through the end of 2023.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.76%, while in Japan, the Nikkei 225 was
0.40% higher and the Topix rose 0.51%. South Korea’s Kospi was down
0.16%, while the Kosdaq moved 0.37% higher.
Mainland Chinese markets were
also up, with the Shenzhen Component gaining
0.57% and the Shanghai
Composite inching up 0.22%.
On the other hand, the Hang Seng index fell
by 0.15%, while the Hang Seng Tech index saw a larger loss of 0.68%.
Japan’s factory activity showed a
softer contraction in five months. The manufacturing purchasing managers index
rose to 49.2% for March, higher than February’s figure of 47.7%, based on a private survey.
U.S. stocks on Friday rose Friday after the
Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected
increase in prices.
The core
personal consumption expenditures index, which excludes energy and
food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected. All three major
US indexes closed higher, with the Nasdaq Composite leading
gains at 1.74% up.
South Korea sees steepest
contraction in factory activity in six months: S&P Global
South Korea’s
purchasing managers index in March fell to 47.6 compared to 48.5 in February,
its steepest
contraction in six months.
A PMI figure of
above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction.
According to a
private survey by S&P Global, the March data indicated an eleventh
consecutive monthly decrease in output at Seoul’s manufacturers.
South Korea also
recorded a decline in industrial output for February, led primarily by
semiconductor companies.
Members surveyed
largely attributed the decline to muted domestic and external demand
conditions, while S&P Global also noted that sustained economic weakness
and poor client confidence had placed downward pressure on sales.
Asia
markets rise as oil surges after surprise OPEC+ cut; investors digest factory
data (cnbc.com)
Oil prices surge
8% after OPEC’s surprise output cuts; analysts warn of $100 per barrel
Oil prices surged as much as 8% at the open after
OPEC+ announced it was slashing output by 1.16 million barrels per day.
Brent crude futures
last jumped 5.07% to $83.95 a barrel on that news, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures
soared 5.17% to $79.59 a barrel.
The voluntary cuts will start from May to end 2023, Saudi Arabia announced, saying it was a
“precautionary measure” targeted toward stabilizing the oil market.
The move comes on the back of Russia’s decision to trim oil production by 500,000
barrels per day until the end of 2023, according to the
country’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Other member states have also
pledged respective cuts, with OPEC Kingpin Saudi Arabia reducing 500,000 barrels per
day and UAE cutting 144,000 barrels per day, amongst
other cutbacks from Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Algeria and Kazakhstan.
“OPEC+‘s plan for a further
production cut may push oil prices toward the $100 mark again, considering
China’s reopening and Russia’s output cuts as a retaliation move against
western sanctions,” CMC Markets’ analyst Tina Teng told CNBC.
Teng noted, however, that the cut could also
reverse the decline in inflation, which would “complicate central banks’ rate
decisions.”
In October last year, the oil cartel announced its decision to cut
output by two million barrels per day. The White House said at that
time that President
Joe Biden was “disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+” to
cut production quotas while the world was still grappling with the war in
Ukraine.
“However, unlike [the cut in
October], the momentum for global oil demand is up, not down with a strong
China recovery,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
That could nudge up Goldman’s Brent
forecasts by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023, the investment
bank said in a note after the surprise decision overnight.
More
Oil
prices surge after OPEC's surprise cuts, analysts warn of $100 per barrel
(cnbc.com)
Wall
St Week Ahead Resilient U.S. stocks failing to factor in recession, investors
fear
April
1, 2023 12:52 AM GMT+1
NEW YORK, March
31 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks have soldiered on through a banking mess to notch
solid first-quarter gains. Some investors say that performance could come under
pressure if a widely expected recession hits.
The benchmark
S&P 500 (.SPX) posted
a 7% gain for the first quarter, which ended on Friday, rebounding after a
nearly 20% drop in 2022. The Nasdaq Composite's (.IXIC) 16.8%
first-quarter jump was its biggest quarterly rise since 2020.
Wary investors
say those gains leave stocks more vulnerable to an economic downturn, which may
have been brought closer by tumult in the banking sector following this month’s
collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Many point to equity valuations, which remain
elevated by historical standards, while arguing that corporate earnings may
have a long way to fall in the event of a recession.
“The answer is
emphatically no, the market is not priced for a recession at all,” said Hans
Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co, which is guarding
against future market turbulence by holding higher than typical amounts of
cash. For stocks, “it means that we could be in for some very nasty surprises
over the coming quarters.”
To what degree
equities have factored in a possible recession - and whether the economy will
experience one - has been a point of contention on Wall Street. Strong data
earlier in the year bolstered hopes that the U.S. would suffer only a mild
recession or avoid one altogether, despite a barrage of rate hikes from the
Federal Reserve.
This month’s
banking sector turbulence again revved up concerns, as some analysts argued the
stress on lenders could pressure the economy just as the Fed’s monetary policy
tightening is starting to bite.
That’s pushed
investors to take a second look at key metrics such as corporate earnings.
While estimates for profits are already downbeat for the coming quarters, some
believe they may fall further if there is a recession.
"Given the events of
the past few weeks, we think ... equity markets are at greater risk of pricing
in much lower estimates," Morgan Stanley strategists said in a report
earlier this week, noting that earnings estimates were 15-20% too high even
"before the recent banking events."
S&P 500 earnings
for the first quarter are estimated to have fallen 5% from the prior year,
followed by an expected 3.9% drop in the second quarter, Refinitiv data shows.
During recessions, however, earnings tumble at a 24% annual rate on average,
according to Ned Davis Research.
U.S. companies
will start reporting first-quarter results in the coming weeks.
More
Wall St Week Ahead
Resilient U.S. stocks failing to factor in recession, investors fear | Reuters
Finally,
while the US government is still on track to run out of funding by June, another
big problem for Uncle Sam is fast approaching in Social security. Given the massive acrimonious split in the US
Congress, neither approaching calamity, if either were to actually happen, seem
easily fixed.
Treasury Warns Social Security
Fund Will Run Out of Money by 2033
April 1, 2023 Updated: April 1, 2023
A new government
report shows that the Social Security system’s main trust fund
will be depleted by 2033, one year sooner than a prior estimate, adding to
concerns about the fund’s solvency.
The Treasury Department has released a report following a meeting of the Social Security Board of
Trustees, in which it warns that the federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance
(OASI) Trust Fund will become “inadequate” within the next 10 years.
The OASI trust fund is primarily
used to pay retirement, spousal, and survivor benefits to eligible individuals
and their families.
A report detailing the Trustees’
findings (pdf)
shows that the worsened financial situation of Social Security is mostly
because of a deteriorating economic picture, in part due to inflation. Projections
for economic output and labor productivity have been downgraded by around 3
percent compared to last year’s estimates, bringing forward the date by which
the fund will run out of money.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
said in a March 31 letter (pdf) that the OASI trust fund’s “reserves will fall
below 20 percent of annual cost by the beginning of calendar year 2033 and will
become depleted in 2033 in the absence of legislation to address this imbalance
between scheduled benefits and revenue.”
Yellen urged lawmakers to take
“prompt action” to address the looming solvency crisis, which could include
boosting revenues, reducing outflows by modifying benefit eligibility
requirements or levels, or some combination of the two.
Kilolo Kijakazi, acting
commissioner of Social Security, said Congress should act quickly so that the
necessary changes to address the trust fund shortfalls could be phased in
gradually.
More
Treasury Warns Social Security Fund Will Run Out of Money by 2033 (theepochtimes.com)
“No government
ever voluntarily reduces itself in size. Government programs, once launched,
never disappear. Actually, a government bureau is the nearest thing to eternal
life we'll ever see on this earth!”
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Eurozone inflation falls sharply
as energy prices drop
Annual
rate down to 6.9% this month, with signs of cost of living pressures easing
Fri 31 Mar 2023 12.58
BST
The eurozone’s annual inflation rate fell sharply in
March as plunging energy prices eased pressure on the cost of living across the
20 countries that use the single currency.
Amid signs that upward pressure on prices is easing, the
EU’s statistical agency Eurostat said the headline inflation rate dropped from
8.5% in February to 6.9% this month.
The fall was because of the sharp increase in gas prices
after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine not being repeated this year. As a result,
annual energy inflation dropped from 13.7% to -0.9%.
In contrast to falling gas prices, the cost of food
continued to rise for eurozone consumers. Eurostat said food, tobacco and
alcoholic drinks were 15.4% more expensive in March than a year earlier,
compared with a 15% annual rise in February.
Core inflation – the cost of living excluding items such
as fuel and food – rose slightly from 5.6% to a new record high of 5.7%.
Analysts said the European Central Bank was
likely to pay more attention to core inflation than the headline measure of the
cost of living, and would continue raising interest rates.
Bert Colijn, a senior economist for the eurozone at ING
bank, said:“The potential for core inflation to remain stickier than hoped will
be the main reason for the ECB to continue to hike in the near term.
“We expect another 0.25-point hike in May and another in
June. As the inflation outlook is starting to look more benign, and recent
banking turmoil serves as an illustration that aggressive hikes are not without
cost, we expect a peak to be reached thereafter.”
More
Eurozone inflation
falls sharply as energy prices drop | Eurozone | The Guardian
Agriculture Minister cites global
inflation as the key factor in the poultry price increase
Posted: Saturday, April 1, 2023. 5:33 pm CST.
Ву
Zоіlа Раlmа Gоnzаlеz: Тhіѕ wееk, Веlіzе wіtnеѕѕеd а 10-сеnt іnсrеаѕе іn thе
рrісе оf сhісkеn, аn еѕѕеntіаl аnd есоnоmісаl рrоtеіn ѕоurсе fоr Веlіzеаn
fаmіlіеѕ. Тhе соѕt реr роund rоѕе frоm $3 tо $3.10. Аgrісulturе Міnіѕtеr
Аbеlаrdо Маі аttrіbutеd thіѕ hіkе рrіmаrіlу tо thе rіѕіng соѕtѕ оf gооdѕ
wоrldwіdе, whісh іn turn іmрасtѕ оthеr fооd рrоduсtѕ.
Маі
ехрlаіnеd thаt аlthоugh Веlіzе рrоduсеѕ іtѕ оwn соrn, thе glоbаl іnсrеаѕе іn
соrn рrісеѕ, drіvеn bу thе U.Ѕ. аѕ thе wоrld’ѕ lаrgеѕt рrоduсеr, hаѕ а rіррlе
еffесt оn lосаl рrісеѕ. “Yоu mіght thіnk thаt Веlіzе іѕ аn іѕоlаtеd саѕе,
рrоduсіng іtѕ оwn соrn. Ноwеvеr, whеn thе рrісе оf соrn gоеѕ uр іn thе U.Ѕ., іt
аffесtѕ рrісеѕ еvеrуwhеrе еlѕе,” Маі ѕtаtеd.
Тhе
mіnіѕtеr hаѕ rеquеѕtеd hіѕ Міnіѕtrу tо аnаlуzе thе іmрасt оf rіѕіng соmmоdіtу
рrісеѕ, іnсludіng соrn. Не nоtеd thаt whеn thе рrісеѕ оf соrn аnd ѕоуbеаnѕ
іnсrеаѕе, іt аffесtѕ а rаngе оf оthеr соmmоdіtіеѕ thаt rеlу оn аnіmаl fееd,
ѕuсh аѕ роultrу, роrk, аnd еggѕ. Whіlе а rіѕе іn rісе рrісеѕ dіrесtlу іmрасtѕ
соnѕumеrѕ, thе іnсrеаѕе іn соrn аnd ѕоуbеаn рrісеѕ hаѕ wіdеr соnѕеquеnсеѕ оn
vаrіоuѕ gооdѕ.
Reservoirs benefit
from wettest March in more than 40 years
2
April, 2023
Reservoirs across England appear
to have benefited from the country’s wettest March in more than 40 years.
Data up
to March 30 showed 111.3mm of rain has fallen in the month across the country,
91% more than average.
As a result, water levels
appear to have increased, with huge visible differences compared with the
summer.
Two photographs of Ardingly
reservoir in West Sussex,
taken at the end of March, show the impact the wet month has had on levels when
compared with September 2022, after a particularly dry summer.
The region had 132.7mm of
rainfall during the whole of last month, which is 240% of the average, making
it the wettest since 2001.
It comes after a dry February
meant a drop in the amount of water in Ardingly reservoir, according to Environment Agency data.
“March was very wet for West
Sussex, the fifth wettest month on record.”
Alex Burkill, a Met Office
meteorologist, told the PA news agency: “Water levels weren’t particularly high
going into March, you need several months of wet weather to make a significant
impact on reservoirs.
In August 2022, Ardingly reservoir
and Hanningfield reservoir in Essex both saw their water level drop by more
than a fifth – the largest fall recorded by any reservoir or reservoir group.
Steve Andrews, South East Water’s
head of service management, said: “Our water resources are in a healthy
position at the current time and a little above where we would expect them to
be.
“Over the past three to six months,
we have seen the drought conditions experienced during the summer be replaced
by a period of exceptionally high rainfall that has had the benefit of
replenishing our groundwater sources and reservoirs ready for summer 2023.
More
Reservoirs benefit from wettest March in more than 40 years (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
3 years
later: How COVID-19 exposed the vulnerability of suppliers and workers to the
power of big buyers
A
tidal wave of order cancellations in early 2020 had dire repercussions for
laborers and their families. The consequences are still being felt.
Published March 31, 2023
Three years ago at
this time, thousands of retail doors across the U.S. were shuttered as COVID-19
began its rapid, deadly spread.
Factories in
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Cambodia, Ethiopia and other global
manufacturing hubs also shut their doors after large retailers and brands —
facing deep uncertainty in their own businesses — canceled many billions of
dollars’ worth of orders.
The two sets of
closures are related, but the ultimate outcomes were vastly different and
unequal.
Most retailers and
brands in the U.S. shrugged off the financial impact of the store closures
within a year. Meanwhile, many smaller factories closed for good, while workers
were laid off and lost desperately needed income. Debt, forced labor and hunger
followed the lost wages for many factory workers, especially in apparel and
footwear, where incomes historically have been low to begin with.
The early period of
the pandemic revealed the cracks in supply chains as well as the underlying
dynamics that are still very present by many accounts, and which predated the
crisis.
For all the talk of
partnership between buyers and suppliers, the COVID-19 crisis showed just how
contingent the relationship often is between powerful brands and overseas
vendors and their workers, as research since that time has shown.
“It lays bare the
vulnerability of the supply chain for the workers,” Pamela Abbott, a professor
of education and director of the Centre for Global Development at the
University of Aberdeen in Scotland, said in an interview.
Walmart. Target.
Aldi. Kohl’s. Gap Inc. H&M. Inditex. VF Corp. Carter’s. J.C. Penney. Tesco.
Those are just some of the companies that canceled orders with suppliers early
in the pandemic crisis, according to academic researchers.
By late April of
2020, major brands had canceled $3.8 billion worth of apparel orders in
Bangladesh alone, as Mark Anner, labor professor and director of the Center for
Global Workers’ Rights at Penn State, found by using a database released at the
time by a trade association of Bangladeshi manufacturers. And that was in just
one country.
More
“If we lose freedom here, there is no place to
escape to. This is the last stand on earth.”
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
No tech update today. Today a lifting
of the curtain on the financial “geniuses” running the Great Nixonian Error of
fiat money in 2023. And it’s only likely to get worse. Argentina, 2023 here we
come. Get a little fully paid up physical gold and silver held outside of the
banksters who’ll probably steal it.
"Can't
anybody here play this game?"
Casey
Stengel.
Tomorrow does not look like being like
today. Tomorrow, after the show trials start in NYC, looks frightening. Approx.
10 minutes.
'BIDEN
PUT US IN DEBT' Watch Kennedy SHOCKED At How INCOMPETENCE The Biden
“The most terrifying words in the English
language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.”
No comments:
Post a Comment