Baltic Dry Index. 1389 -14 Brent Crude 79.77
Spot Gold 1978 U S 2 Year Yield 4.06 -0.04
To
no one’s surprise in the stock casinos, “dress up Friday” lived up to its
name, helped along by the latest US inflation figures.
But
the unpleasant fact remains that stocks are rallying into still rising
inflation, more fallout to come from rising interest rates with more rate
increases to come over the summer and the prospect of more strikes and social distress
in a global economy heading towards recession.
More
exit rally for most stocks. Few stocks do well in rising interest rates that
bring on recession.
Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter
since 2020: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, MAR 31 2023 5:39 PM EDT
Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a
volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and
a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added
1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced
1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%,
closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday
after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected
increase in prices. The core
Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and
food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists
polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and
16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020
for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have
gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end
March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted
a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure
of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of
deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits
of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility
for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled
$88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank
Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the
period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from
$164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as
the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion
lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner
this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK)
added roughly 10% in March.
More
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
European stocks log gains of over 7% for the first
quarter despite turmoil in the banking sector
UPDATED FRI, MAR 31 2023 12:05 PM EDT
European stock markets closed higher
Friday, with the Stoxx 600 logging gains of 7.05% in the first quarter
despite a volatile few weeks of trade in the banking sector.
The European benchmark closed
down 1.36% for the month.
On Friday, the Stoxx 600 index
closed up 0.6% from the previous session after
euro zone consumer price rises cooled and a key U.S. inflation print came in lower
than expected.
Retail stocks led gains,
extending the Thursday rally and ending up by 1.7%, while household goods and
financial services both rose 1.2%.
Banks were the sole outlier,
closing 0.2% lower despite positive momentum throughout the week. Swedbank was one of
the worst-performing European stocks.
Euro zone headline inflation slowed to 6.9% in
March, a
preliminary reading showed, down from 8.5% in February — the
sharpest fall on record, according to Reuters. But core inflation, stripping
out energy and food, increased from 5.6% to 5.7%.
European Central Bank
policymakers have this week suggested more interest rate hikes are necessary,
but may come at a slower pace. The ECB hiked by
50 basis points in March.
Further data releases through the
morning showed a drop in German retail sales; while the U.K. economy recorded 0.1% growth in the
fourth quarter of 2022, revised up from a first estimate showing no growth.
More
European
markets open to close, earnings, data and news (cnbc.com)
In other, real world news, “despite
Brexit,” as the far left Euro-fanatics at the BBC would say, life goes on even
as the global economy limps on towards the next recession.
UK to join Indo-Pacific trade bloc CPTPP
in major ‘milestone’
FRIDAY 31 MARCH 2023 7:00 AM
The UK is to join the Comprehensive and Progressive
Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade bloc, in a major
“milestone” for post-Brexit trade, the government has confirmed.
Ministers announced the deal making the UK the first European nation to join the major Indo-Pacific free trade bloc, worth a total of £11 trillion GDP, after negotiating for 21 months.
Prime minister Rishi
Sunak said: “We are at our heart an open and free-trading nation, and this deal
demonstrates the real economic benefits of our post-Brexit freedoms.”
Membership
will see more than 99 per cent of UK exports to CPTPP nations eligible for zero
tariffs, the government said, including cheese, cars, chocolate, machinery, gin
and whisky, while the services sector will benefit from reduced red tape and
Pacific markets access.
UK
exports to CPTPP countries were already worth £60.5bn in the year to September
2022.
The UK
becomes the first new member of the bloc since the CPTPP, which is home to more
than 500m people and will be worth 15 per cent of global GDP with the UK, was
established.
Economically,
the UK is set to benefit by £1.8bn in the long run, the government said, with
wages also forecast to rise by £800m compared to 2019 levels.
Negotiations
concluded after intensive discussions in Vietnam this month, following five
sets of talks, with representatives from all member countries agreeing to the
UK’s accession.
The
wider Indo-Pacific region has 60 per cent of the world’s population and will
make up 54 per cent of global economic growth in the coming decades.
The UK
and CPTPP members will now take the final steps before formally signing in
2023.
More
UK to join
Indo-Pacific trade bloc CPTPP in major ‘milestone’ (cityam.com)
South Korea exports fall for sixth
consecutive month in March
April 1, 20232:26 AM GMT+1
SEOUL, April 1
(Reuters) - South Korea's exports fell in March year-on-year for the sixth
month in a row, hit by a cooling global economy and a persistent slump in the
semiconductor sector, but exports did not fall by as much as expected, data
showed on Saturday.
Asia's
fourth-largest economy exported goods worth $55.12 billion in March, down 13.6%
from a year earlier, the trade ministry's data showed, compared with drops of
7.5% in February and the 17.5% tipped in a Reuters poll.
It was the longest losing streak in exports in
annual terms since August 2020.
For the January-March period, exports fell 12.6%
from a year earlier, steeper than 10.0% in the preceding three months and the
worst since the second quarter of 2020, boding ill for the heavily
trade-dependent economy.
South Korea is the first major exporting economy to
release trade data each month, with a diversified portfolio from chips to cars
and ships, providing an early glimpse into the state of global demand.
More
South
Korea exports fall for sixth consecutive month in March | Reuters
Finally,
more western self-inflicted food price inflation madness.
Western Crop Traders’ Russia Pullback Signals
More Control for Moscow
31 March 2023 at 12:02 BST
Shortly
after the outbreak of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, a wave of foreign
companies left Russia. Most Western crop traders stayed put while touting
the importance of their role in keeping grain flowing from the vital Black Sea
breadbasket.
But
this week, their future has been quickly rewritten.
The two biggest Western shippers of Russian
grain, Cargill and Viterra, will halt purchases
for export in a shift that will give local firms more control over shipments.
The moves appeared to spook other traders, with
Archer-Daniels-Midland now reviewing its
stake in a sweetener and starch venture there.
Even though agricultural products are not under
sanction, the war had already made trade more complicated and foreign traders
have faced some Russian government pressure to leave. Some food
and agriculture companies have been scaling back their operations or
investments over the past year. Another big trader, Bunge, already left Russia
last year.
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and a key
contributor to global food security. Its grain is expected to
continue to flow out.
But changes will come. As Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas argues, just as in
the oil trade, Russian grain will move into the shadows and without
Western traders present, Washington and Brussels will lose a key source of
intelligence:
“If anything, the Kremlin will have a stronger
say about where — and at what price — its grain goes, a potent
economic weapon. Obscurity, money and political influence is what Putin will
get.”
Supply Chain
Latest: Western Crop Traders Pull Back From Russia - Bloomberg
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Your Evening Briefing: US Inflation May Be Slowing Again
31 March 2023 at 22:52 BST
Technology shares extended the week’s US stocks rally after
a key measure of inflation cooled last month, good news for the Federal Reserve
as it continues its fight to bring down prices while avoiding a
recession. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—rose just 0.3% in
February, which was slightly below the median estimate. Still, the PCE price
index was up 5% from a year earlier, which while a deceleration from January
remains far higher than the Fed’s ultimate 2% goal. But US year-ahead inflation
expectations receded further, to the
lowest in nearly two years, according to the final March reading from the
University of Michigan.
Wall Street hailed the numbers with the S&P 500
rising 1.4%. That brings its weekly gains to 3.5%, the most since
November, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 1.7%, helping notch its
biggest quarterly gain since June 2020. “Overall, it was a round of data
consistent with the peak inflation narrative but
also with the Fed’s insistence that there remains work to be done to
re-establish price stability,” Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets wrote in a
note. Here’s your markets wrap.
Here are today’s top stories
Deposits at US lenders fell sharply for a second week following the financial
turmoil triggered by the bank collapses earlier in March. Commercial bank
deposits dropped by $125.7 billion in the week ended March 22, marking the
ninth-straight period of declines, according to data released Friday by
the Fed. However, deposits at small banks increased.
Charles Schwab’s worst month in more than 35 years has sparked a debate among
analysts as to whether the brokerage giant has been unfairly
punished by investors.
A case of mistaken identity is sparking a selloff in Republic First Bancorp,
which had fallen
by more than 40% this month because investors have it confused
with embattled First Republic Bank. “We are NOT First Republic Bank,” Republic
First Chief Executive Officer Thomas Geisel wrote in a letter on the
company’s website.
More
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: US Inflation May Be Slowing Again, New Data Show - Bloomberg
House prices fall in largest annual drop
since 2009 as inflation and higher borrowing costs dampen housing market
FRIDAY 31 MARCH 2023 7:56 AM
House prices fell 3.1 per cent in March, the largest annual decline
since July 2009 as consumer confidence remained weak and household budgets came
under increasing pressure from high inflation.
According to data from Nationwide, East Anglia, which was the strongest performing region last quarter, saw a significant slowdown, with prices falling 1.8 per cent year-on-year, making it the weakest performing English region.
As the market continues to pick up the pieces
from September’s mini budget, the outer South East region saw house prices
decline 1.5 per cent year-on-year, while in London they fell 1.4 per
cent fall – with the average price of a house in the capital now
£511k.
“The housing market
reached a turning point last year as a result of the financial market
turbulence which followed the mini-Budget. Since then, activity has remained subdued,”
said Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist.
The fall in house prices has not been matched by a fall in borrower demand as mortgage approvals have improved for the first time since August.
According to the
latest Bank
of England’s Money and Credit report for
February, net mortgage approvals for house purchases increased to 43,500 up
from 39,600 in January – however still remained below pre-pandemic levels.
Tom Bill, head of UK
residential research at Knight Frank, said: “Activity has been solid this year
as buyers accept the new normal for mortgage rates. For anyone with memories
that stretch further back than 2008, it looks very much like the old
normal.
“That said, more
financial pain will enter the system as owners move onto higher fixed-rate
deals and combined with an increase in supply from the lows of the pandemic, we
expect UK prices to fall by a few percent this year.”
More
Financial
world legend sounds alarm over 'biggest bank that's going down'
Thu, March 30, 2023 at 9:01 PM GMT+1
In the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, finance expert Robert Kiyosaki cautioned the central
bank of a global powerhouse may be the next to belly up.
"The biggest bank that's
going to go down is Bank of Japan," Kiyosaki explained. "Because the
Bank of Japan carried the interest rates at, what, zero or whatever they did,
[and] financed the derivatives markets. And the derivatives market, as Warren
Buffett said about derivatives, they're weapons of mass financial destruction
and the derivatives market in the world today, financed by the Bank of Japan,
is a quadrillion [dollars]."
The "Rich Dad, Poor
Dad" author's comments come amid what some have optimistically labeled a
market rally after stocks recorded another strong day and markets looked
positive in March.
Kiyosaki, however, challenged the
idea of a comeback, noting issues with the derivative markets. He also warned
the Bank of Japan's heavy connection to derivative markets put it in a
more vulnerable position and threaten greater effects on the global economy.
"The Bank of Japan has been financing
derivatives. Derivatives are a quadrillion [dollars]. That's 1000
trillion," he explained on "Cavuto: Coast to Coast"
Thursday. "So we haven't seen the crash coming yet."
In addition to the issue with
derivative markets, the financial legend criticized money-printing habits along
with the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike strategy.
"Since 2008, interest rates
have been dropping, dropping, dropping, dropping. All of a sudden, the interest rates are going up. [Federal Reserve Chair] Powell has
raised interest rates faster than any time in history. So somebody says, 'well,
he's playing Volcker.' Well, [Former Fed Chair Paul] Volcker raised interest
rates over years. Powell is doing it over months," Kiyosaki said.
Kiyosaki argued against age-old
advice on the Fed given the rapid pace of rate hikes.
"This idea of don't fight
the Fed and all that, I think that's old advice. I would stay with gold and
silver… I've been Chicken Little or Paul Revere for all these years, but I'd
still rather have gold than this stuff," Kiyosaki said in the Thursday
segment, pointing to a piece of paper currency.
More
Financial world
legend sounds alarm over 'biggest bank that's going down' (yahoo.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
No update this weekend, as we get ready to wind down this section. Already many countries have dropped daily updates, updating weekly or monthly. The USA is getting ready to drop its SARs emergency in May. Replaced by a growing vaccine adverse events emergency perhaps?
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Graphene
additive finds use in higher-performing plastic film
Ben Coxworth March 30, 2023
When we
think of graphene, we tend to think of its use in high-profile applications
such as electronics, medical
devices and construction
materials. Now, however, it's been incorporated into an
additive which reportedly boosts the performance of humble plastic film.
Widely hailed as a "wonder material," graphene
takes the form of one-atom-thick sheets of carbon atoms linked to one another
in a honeycomb pattern. Along with being the world's strongest human-made
substance, it's also very flexible, stretchable and chemically stable, plus it
exhibits high electrical and thermal conductivity.
With these qualities in
mind, Brazilian firm Gerdau Graphene has incorporated tiny flakes of the
material into an additive known as Poly-G PE-07GM.
When pellets of Poly-G are
added to the resin used in the production of polyethylene film, the finished
product is reportedly much stronger and more thermally stable, UV-resistant and
electrically conductive than it would be otherwise.
Additionally, because the
Poly-G-enhanced film is stronger than its conventional pure-polyethylene counterparts,
it can be thinner. As a result, less polyethylene resin is required in its
production, plus it weighs less. According to the company, these factors lead
to a reduction in manufacturing and transportation costs.
In a series of industrial
tests, Poly-G film was used in the packaging of construction nails. Even though
the film was 25% thinner than conventional polyethylene packaging film,
"far fewer" nails perforated it, resulting in a 39% reduction in the
volume of nail packages being discarded due to damage.
And yes, the enhanced film
is claimed to still be 100% recyclable. We've also been told that different
grades of the additive can be used in the production of solid,
three-dimensional polyethylene products.
The
company has just announced the first commercial sale of Poly-G PE-07GM, to an
undisclosed industrial client. It has also formed a partnership with the
Sumitomo Corporation for distribution in Japan.
Source: Gerdau Graphene
Graphene additive
finds use in higher-performing plastic film (newatlas.com)
This weekend’s music diversion. Vivaldi again, celebrating Venice and the
Christian fleets victory over the Ottoman fleet and army at the Siege of Corfu
1716. The unofficial anthem of Venice. Approx.
2 minutes.
Juditha
Triumphans
Siege of Corfu
(1716)
The siege of Corfu took place
on 8 July – 21 August 1716, when the Ottoman Empire besieged
the city of Corfu, on
the namesake island, then held
by the Republic of Venice. The siege was part of the Seventh
Ottoman–Venetian War, and, coming in the aftermath of the lightning
conquest of the Morea by
the Ottoman forces in the previous year, was a major success for Venice,
representing its last major military success and allowing it to preserve its rule over the Ionian Islands.
More
Siege
of Corfu (1716) - Wikipedia
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 9 minutes.
Best
Game of 2023 JUST HAPPENED!
Best Game of 2023 JUST HAPPENED! - YouTube
This
weekend math’s update. Approx. 3 minutes,
short version, 24 minutes, long version.
The
Banach-Tarski paradox
The
Banach-Tarski paradox - YouTube
The
Banach–Tarski Paradox
The
Banach–Tarski Paradox - YouTube
Near
the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily optimistic because they've
seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The sell-offs witnessed during
that span were usually brief. Even when they were severe, the market bounced
back quickly and always rose to loftier levels. At the top, optimism is king,
speculation is running wild, stocks carry high price/earnings ratios, and
liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest rates can easily be the
catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point.
Martin Zweig.
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