Baltic
Dry Index. 541 -22 Brent Crude 85.94
Spot Gold 1835 US 2 Year Yield 4.62 +0.02
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 16/02/23 World 678,109,910
Deaths 6,786,225
If all else fails, immortality
can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
In the stock casinos, all news is good news again. Party on like it’s Magic Money Tree forests March 2020 all over again.
In the real world, it’s not so rosy. Both the Japanese and Chinese economies are underperforming, some would say rolling over. US manufacturing struggling or worse.
Oil price and food price inflation remain stubbornly anything but “transient.”
Global interest rates are still moving higher.
Time for something big to likely break.
Hang Seng index
gains over 2% as Asia markets rise; Japan posts worst trade deficit ever
UPDATED THU, FEB 16 2023 12:33 AM
EST
Asia Pacific markets traded
higher on Thursday as investors digested Japan’s record trade deficit of 3.5
trillion yen ($26 billion) – according to Refinitiv data that dates back to
March 2006. Investors also digested a stronger than expected U.S.
retail sales report from Wall Street.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led
gains in the region as it surged 2.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech index jumped
3.71%. South Korea’s Kospi traded
1.81% higher, with the Kosdaq rising 2.28%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose
0.78% and the Topix inched up 0.67%. The Japanese yen slightly
strengthened following the trade data release. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was
trading 0.79% higher, as unemployment figures for January came in higher than
economists expected.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component gained 0.7%, and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.86%.
The Philippines’ central bank
will also issue its latest decision on its interest rates in the afternoon,
with economists expecting a rate hike of 50 basis points to 6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average led
gains and gained more than 250 points from its intraday low to close at
34,128.05, while the S&P
500 and Nasdaq
Composite closed 0.28% and 0.92% higher respectively.
Japan logs record
merchandise trade deficit in January as export growth slows
Growth in Japan’s merchandise exports
slowed sharply in January amid weakening Chinese demand for cars and
chipmaking machinery, stoking concern about a global slowdown and creating the
country’s largest trade deficit on record.
Trade figures
issued on Thursday followed weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data,
underscoring the challenge for the Bank of Japan in
achieving growth led by private demand while stably sustaining
inflation above 2%.
Aggressive interest
rate rises in other advanced economies have cooled demand for Japanese
products, which came under more downward pressure in January as China
celebrated the lunar New Year holiday.
“In a
nutshell, exports are weakening,” said Taro Saito, chief economist at NLI
Research Institute. “The United States and Europe are not in a complete
recession yet, but I think the world economy is probably going to get a little
worse, so it will be even tougher in terms of exports.”
The lifting of
China’s zero-Covid policy late last year, however, might somewhat brighten the
outlook for a global economy teetering on the brink of a recession, he added.
The value
of Japan’s merchandise exports in January was 3.5% higher
than a year earlier, Ministry of Finance (MOF) data showed, slowing sharply
from the previous month’s annual gain of 11.5% but beating economists’ median
estimate for a 0.8% rise.
Imports of goods were
up 17.8%, compared with the rise of 20.7% in the previous month and a median
forecast for 18.4%.
The result was a 3.49
trillion yen ($26.07 billion) deficit in merchandise trade in January,
the biggest in records going back to 1979, the data showed. Imports of
coal, liquefied natural gas and crude oil drove up overall import bills.
“With commodity inflation peaking and the yen unlikely to weaken
further, import prices are likely to decline from now on, but exports are
still trending downward, so trade deficits will persist,” said Kenta
Maruyama, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.
More
Japan
logs record merchandise trade deficit as export growth slows (cnbc.com)
Oil
rises on China optimism, market shrugs off U.S. inventory build
February
16, 2023 4:14 AM GMT
Feb 16 (Reuters)
- Oil prices rose on Thursday as hopes of a robust fuel demand recovery in top
oil consumer China offset losses arising from strength in the greenback and a
large build in U.S. crude inventory.
Brent
crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $85.80 per barrel by 0352 GMT, while
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 48 cents, or 0.6% to
$79.07 a barrel.
The
International Energy Agency (IEA) said that oil demand will rise by 2 million
barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, up 100,000 bpd from last month's forecast to a
record 101.9 million bpd, with China making up 900,000 bpd of the increase.
China will
account for almost half of 2023 oil demand growth after relaxing its COVID-19
curbs, the Paris-based agency said. read more
The
U.S. dollar , which generally moves inversely with crude prices, surged on the
back of bullish U.S. retail sales data and clung to most of those gains on
Thursday.
----
U.S. crude oil stocks soared last week by 16.3 million barrels to 471.4 million
barrels, the highest level since June 2021, the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) said. The larger-than-expected build was largely due a
data adjustment, which analysts said muted the impact to oil prices.
---- Around 1
million bpd of oil production will be shut by the end of the first quarter, the
IEA said, following the European ban on seaborne imports and international
price cap sanctions.
Analysts
at Commonwealth Bank pointed out in a note that OPEC+ will not look to boost
output to compensate for lower Russian output.
That
means the onus will be on the United States and other non-OPEC producers to
boost output not only to make up for lower Russian output, but also to meet any
incremental increase in global oil demand, the note added.
Oil
rises on China optimism, market shrugs off U.S. inventory build | Reuters
Column:
U.S. manufacturers flounder amid cost-of-living shock
February
16, 2023 1:00 AM GMT
LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - U.S.
manufacturing activity is falling as businesses and households pull back
spending in the face of rapidly rising prices and heightened uncertainty about
the outlook for 2023.
Manufacturing output
for the three months from November 2022 through January 2023 was almost 1.8%
lower than in the three months between March and May 2022.
Production at the
end of 2022 and the start of 2023 was no higher than twelve months earlier,
according to estimates prepared by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The downturn in recent months is
comparable with the onset of previous recessions in 2008 and 2000, and
mid-cycle slowdowns in 2018 and 2014.
The weakness of
manufacturing production is consistent with business surveys which have showed
activity falling every month since November.
It is also
consistent with data on new orders for non-defense capital equipment excluding
aircraft, a proxy for business investment spending.
New orders were up by just 5.6% in
nominal terms in the three months from October to December compared with the
same period in 2021.
Since inflation was
running faster than this, however, the volume of new orders had likely fallen
in real terms by several percentage points.
The total number of
shipping containers hauled on U.S. railroads so far in 2023 is 7% below
year-ago levels, according to weekly carload reports published by the
Association of American Railroads.
The manufacturing slowdown has already
caused consumption of diesel and other distillate fuel oils to stagnate; the
volume of distillates supplied was down in five of the eight most recent months
compared with prior-year levels.
The manufacturing
outlook is probably negative. Real wages and salaries are still falling, while
real interest rates are rising, both of which imply the manufacturing slowdown
is likely to intensify over the next few months.
As the U.S. central
bank continues to increase interest rates to wring persistent inflation out of
the service sector, the less labour-intensive but more energy-intensive
manufacturing sector is likely to suffer collateral damage.
Column:
U.S. manufacturers flounder amid cost-of-living shock | Reuters
Finally, in cryptoland news, SBF’s 250
million bail guarantors are named.
FTX founder Sam
Bankman-Fried’s two bond guarantors unsealed, both with ties to Stanford
The names of two of FTX co-founder Sam
Bankman-Fried’s guarantors were revealed on Wednesday, after an unsealing
motion from media companies including CNBC was granted by a Manhattan federal
judge.
Bankman-Fried was released on
$250 million recognizance bond in December after he was indicted on criminal
fraud charges. In all, there were four guarantors, including his parents, to
ensure Bankman-Fried’s cooperation with pretrial detention requirements.
The other two guarantors are now
known to be Larry Kramer, who is president of the William
and Flora Hewlett Foundation and dean emeritus at Stanford Law School, and Andreas
Paepcke, a senior research scientist at Stanford University. Their
names had been sealed, but several media outlets moved to have their identities
made public.
Both of
Bankman-Fried’s parents, Joe Bankman and Barbara Fried, are on the faculty of
Stanford. They live near the university.
“Joe Bankman and
Barbara Fried have been close friends of my wife and I since the mid-1990s,”
Kramer told CNBC’s Eamon Javers. “During the past two years, while my family
faced a harrowing battle with cancer, they have been the truest of friends —
bringing food, providing moral support, and frequently stepping in at moment’s
notice to help. In turn, we have sought to support them as they face their own
crisis.”
Kramer said he was
acting “in my personal capacity” and has “no business dealings or interest in
this matter other than to help our loyal and steadfast friends.”
Kramer signed a $500,000 unsecured bond, while
Paepcke signed the same type of bond for $250,000.
Paepcke, who graduated from Harvard
University and has a Ph.D. in computer science from a school in Germany, did
not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The only information provided in
the unsealed documentation was the names of the guarantors and the dates they
signed the documents. Their names match the identities of two Stanford
University-associated individuals.
Bankman-Fried’s initial release was
secured by both his family home and by the two bonds. The former crypto
billionaire will return to New York later this week for a hearing before a
Manhattan federal judge over his bail conditions, and he’s expected to face
federal trial in October. He pleaded not
guilty in January.
Sam Bankman-Fried's two bond guarantors revealed after unsealing (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation finally
trimming’: IMF chief's optimistic assessment of world economy
Updated on Feb 15, 2023 08:31 AM IST
The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that a cost of living crisis that was triggered in
many countries following global inflation spike is subsiding, Managing Director
Kristalina Georgieva said.
“We see inflation
finally trimming down in quite a number of countries. The chance of finally
getting on top of the problem of cost of living being a major disrupter for
millions and millions of people, we see light at the end of this tunnel,"
Kristalina Georgieva said as many countries in the world continue to face
inflation and increased food and energy costs.
Last month, IMF
estimated that world consumer-price increases would slow to 6.6% this year.
This would be 0.1 percentage point higher than the October projection,
following 8.8% in 2022. IMF also forecast slowing to 4.3% in 2024 and inflation
rates to be lower in about 84% of countries in 2023 than in 2022. World gross
domestic product will likely grow an estimated 2.9% in 2023, 0.2 percentage
point more than forecast in October, IMF had said.
More
UK
inflation: Price rises slow but remain close to 40-year high
15 February 2023
Price rises in the UK slowed for a third month in a row but inflation remains near a 40-year high, official figures show.
Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, fell to 10.1% in the year to January from 10.5% in December.
The drop was largely due to the price of fuel and cost of restaurants and hotels slowing.
But this was offset by rising prices of alcohol and tobacco.
Food inflation also remained high at 16.7% in the year to January and is one of the main drivers fuelling overall inflation, along with energy bills, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which published the data.
To calculate inflation, the ONS keeps track of the prices of hundreds of everyday items.
If it falls, it does not mean the prices of goods are going down, it just means prices are rising more slowly.
Some analysts have said the cost of living may now be beginning to ease after inflation hit a peak in October.
However at 10.1%, the rate of price rises is still way above the 2% target the Bank of England is charged with meeting.
Other than in the last year in which inflation has been rising, the last time it was above the current level was in February 1982.
Grant Fitzner, chief economist for the ONS, said the latest figures showed there were signs costs facing businesses were "rising more slowly", but warned "business prices remain high overall, particularly for steel and food products".
He said air and coach travel prices had dropped back after December's "steep rise". "Petrol prices continue to fall and there was a dip in restaurant, cafe and takeaway prices," he added.
"The cost of furniture decrease by more than this time last year, in line with traditional New Year discounting."
Chancellor Jeremy
Hunt also warned the "fight is far from over" on rising prices.
"High inflation strangles growth and causes pain for families and businesses - that's why we must stick to the plan halve inflation this year, reduce debt and grow the economy," he said.
Although the
government has pledged to halve inflation, many economists have predicted it
will happen naturally, as the cost of energy falls.
More
UK inflation: Price rises slow but remain close to 40-year high - BBC News
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Risk
of developing diabetes after Covid-19 continued in Omicron period, study says
By , CNN
Published 11:02 AM EST, Tue February 14, 2023
People
who’ve had Covid-19 have a higher risk of developing diabetes, and that link
seems to have persisted into the Omicron era, a new study finds.
Mounting
evidence suggests Covid-19 infections are tied to a new diagnosis of diabetes,
though it’s not clear whether this relationship is a coincidence or
cause-and-effect.
For their study, published Tuesday in JAMA Network Open,
researchers at Cedars Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles studied the medical
records of more than 23,000 adults who’d had Covid-19 at least once.
They
looked to see how likely it would be for these people to get a new diagnosis of
diabetes, high blood pressure or high cholesterol in the three months after
their Covid-19 infection compared with the three months before it.
Because
health care visits were often disrupted during the pandemic, many people are
just getting around to getting routine physicals and checkups that they might
have missed.
The
researchers realized this could make them more likely to get a new diagnosis of
a condition, such as diabetes, that they may have been developing anyway. To
control for this, they also looked at the risk of something they called a
benchmark diagnosis – a new diagnosis of either acid reflux or a UTI – as a way
to address this bias.
The
raw data showed that people who’d had Covid-19 had higher risks of being
diagnosed with diabetes, high cholesterol and high blood pressure after their
infections.
But
when the researchers adjusted those numbers to account for the benchmark
diagnosis, only the risk of diabetes remained significantly elevated. Covid-19
increased the odds of a new diabetes diagnosis by an average of about 58%.
More
Risk
of developing diabetes after Covid-19 continued in Omicron period, study says |
CNN
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, so you really, really, really
want an EV.
Could Electric Vehicles Be Hacked?
Feb. 14, 2023 1:24 pm ET
Will electric cars and trucks be the next playground
for hackers?
Some cybersecurity experts are raising the alarm, describing
disturbing scenarios of possible attacks that include vehicles careening off
the road or catching fire.
Electric
vehicles are packed with chips and software that control everything from their
batteries and motors to cruise control and braking. They also are plugged into
chargers almost daily, sending information back and forth over charging
networks or the internet. And they communicate wirelessly with the companies
that made them, EV dealers, cellular and home Wi-Fi networks and apps on their owners’
phones.
This
combination of vast computing power and numerous online connections will
present an alluring opportunity for digital malcontents, as millions of EVs are
projected to roll out over the next few years, cybersecurity experts say.
“It’s a very complex ecosystem of different players
and different sets of technologies. It shows how many potential doors there are
for hackers,” says Benjamin Klein, an associate partner at McKinsey &
Co. who specializes in cybersecurity.
The nightmare possibility: Hackers spread malicious
software to thousands or millions of EVs. The attacks paralyze the cars until
their owners pay a fee, in much the same way that ransomware can shut down a
computer network until the hackers get money. Even worse, hackers might be able
to corrupt an EV’s charging system and overload the battery, potentially
igniting it, or hijack a vehicle’s acceleration and braking, leading to an
accident.
“Imagine the cars start driving erratically,”
says Stuart Madnick, a professor and cybersecurity expert at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management. “That is
well within the realm of feasibility.’’
Other possibilities, experts say, include hackers
taking control of charging networks and using them to steal customers’ information
or even take down parts of the power grid.
So far, reported hacks have been relatively minor.
Last February, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, chargers along a major
highway in Russia were shut down and the screens began displaying pro-Ukraine
slogans. In April, public chargers on the British Isle of Wight were hacked to
display pornography on their screens.
More
Could Electric
Vehicles Be Hacked? - WSJ
"In
economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."
John Kenneth Galbraith.
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