Tuesday, 21 February 2023

A Kiev Trip. Wobbly Asia. A G-7 Meeting.

 Baltic Dry Index. 552 +14                Brent Crude 82.95

Spot Gold 1839                      US 2 Year Yield 4.60  Fri.

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 21/02/23 World 678,801,657

Deaths 6,791,793

“If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it?”

Albert Einstein.

To very little surprise, President Biden finally made the obligatory Great Leaders train ride into Kiev for a solidarity morale boost to Ukraine.

That President Biden would visit Poland and not take the train ride to Kiev, always seemed unlikely and would have generated much bad PR to say the least.  All the more so, since Russia has long since unofficially recognised the Polish – Kiev diplomatic train corridor.

The BBC World Service has reported that Russia was informed of the coming trip last week, but for security reasons, all involved agreed to keep it a secret mission. Well secret from the US media and public.

Sadly, it will do nothing to end Europe’s useless, unnecessary war. One that, depending on what happens to Ukraine’s winter and spring planted crops, threatens a second year of food price inflation for all.

Later today, President Putin gets to deliver a much awaited speech.

In casinos news, the US markets return from celebrating Presidents Day and await tomorrow the latest news from the Federal Reserve’s last meetings.


Asia markets mixed as investors digest private surveys on factory activity

UPDATED TUE, FEB 21 2023 1:00 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Tuesday as investors await regional private surveys for factory activity.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.21% lower as investors digest the nation’s Judo Bank composite purchasing managers’ index, which climbed to 49.2, below the 50-mark that separates growth and contraction.

The PMI index encompasses services and manufacturing, and is seen as a reliable gauge of economic health.

The Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes from its February policy meeting, which reiterated comments from governor Philip Lowe that more interest rate hikes will be needed.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index led losses in the region as it fell 1.14% lower, and the Hang Seng Tech index slid 2.44%.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.15% and the Topix was marginally higher, with Japan’s PMI index coming in lower at 47.4. down from 48.9 in January.

South Korea’s Kospi also rose 0.2% while the Kosdaq was 0.33% higher.

In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component shed 0.16%, and the Shanghai Composite also was up 0.15%.

While U.S. markets were closed due to Presidents’ day holiday, U.S futures fell on Monday night following a week during which higher interest rates kept investor sentiment in check.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped 88 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures pulled back by 0.2%.

Asia markets mixed as investors digest private surveys on factory activity (cnbc.com)

Stock futures fall as Dow tries to rebound from its third-straight weekly decline: Live updates

UPDATED MON, FEB 20 2023 7:00 PM EST

U.S. stock futures fell Monday night following a week during which higher interest rates kept investor sentiment in check.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped 102 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures also dipped 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures pulled back by 0.1%. U.S. markets were closed Monday due to the Presidents Day holiday.

The Dow fell 0.1% last week, marking its third straight weekly decline. The S&P 500 slid for a second consecutive week, losing 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend, rising 0.6%.

Those moves came as traders grappled with hotter-than-expected inflation data, which pushed Treasury yields to levels not seen since November. Traders are worried that stubborn inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer — which could tip the economy into a recession.

“We believe a recession is virtually inevitable, but we do not believe it will begin until sometime between the beginning and the middle of 2024,” Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, said in a note. “Such a delay would give equities a window to rally.”

The Fed on Wednesday is scheduled to release the minutes from its meeting of Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. The central bank hiked rates by 25 basis points after that meeting.

Traders will also parse through corporate earnings from retail giants Walmart and Home Depot to gauge how the consumer is doing.

 

G-7 finance chiefs to meet on Feb. 23 to discuss measures against Russia

Financial leaders of the Group of Seven will meet on Feb. 23 to discuss measures against Russia that will put pressure on it to end the Ukraine war, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday.

Japan will chair the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations in the Indian city of Bengaluru. The meeting will come almost a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, calling it a “special military operation.”

The war has raged on despite a slew of punitive measures G7 and other countries have taken against Russia.

“Support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia will be the main topics of discussion,” Suzuki told a news conference. “We will continue to closely coordinate with G7 and the international community to enhance the effect of sanctions to achieve the ultimate goal of prompting Russia to withdraw.”

Japan chairs G7 ministerial meetings this year in the run-up to the May 19-21 summit meeting of G7 leaders in Hiroshima. The G7 comprises Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States.

The G7 meeting will be followed later in the week by a broader gathering of G20 financial leaders from the world’s major economies, which will be hosted in Bengaluru by India, which has the G20 presidency.

The Ukraine war and the global economy are expected to be the focus of the G20 talks.

It will discuss inflation that has been heightened by Russia’s war, energy and food prices, and support for emerging market economies facing debt problems. A failure to tackle emerging market debt could lead to a financial crisis, a senior Japanese official said earlier.

More

G7 finance chiefs to meet in Feb to discuss measures against Russia (cnbc.com)

Finally, more on close to collapse Pakistan. Grim and getting grimmer as the economy starts grinding to a stop. How long has Pakistan got?

 

Pakistan current account deficit falls to $0.2 billion in Jan - cenbank

KARACHI, Pakistan, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) dropped to $0.2 billion in January 2023, down 90% from last year as the rupee's depreciation slowed down imports, the central bank said on Monday.

In less than a month, the cash strapped nation’s currency has lost more than a quarter of its value against the U.S. dollar after the removal of artificial caps, and fuel prices have risen by more than a fifth as the government implemented fiscal measures required to unlocking funds from an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout.

During the first seven months of the current fiscal year, the country’s current account deficit decreased by 67% to $3.8 billion, compared with a deficit of $11.6 billion during the same period last year.

“This monthly deficit is lowest after 25 months, and lower than expectations,” said Mohammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities. Sohail, citing the falling currency. The weaker currency has made imports more expensive, effectively slashing them.

Tahir Abbas, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited said that imports under machinery group and transport group have gone down 47% and 61% respectively was primarily due to stringent administrative measures taken by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in addition to the  economic slowdown.

Pakistan current account deficit falls to $0.2 billion in Jan - cenbank | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Ericsson to cut 1,400 jobs in Sweden

STOCKHOLM, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Telecoms gear maker Ericsson (ERICb.ST) plans to cut about 1,400 jobs in Sweden as part of a broader plan to reduce costs globally, it said on Monday.

The company had earlier announced plans to cut costs by 9 billion crowns ($880 million) by the end of 2023 as demand slows in some markets, including North America.

Further job cuts, numbering several thousands in other countries, are likely to be announced in the coming days, said two sources close to the matter.

Ericsson last made deep cuts in 2017 when it laid off thousands of employees and focused on research to pull the company out of losses.

The company was negotiating with its employee union in Sweden for months on how to handle cost cuts.

Agreement has now been reached with Swedish unions on how to manage headcount reductions, a spokesperson said, adding that the company intends to make the cuts through a voluntary programme.

Ericsson to cut 1,400 jobs in Sweden | Reuters

India will continue with efforts to curb inflation - finance minister

NEW DELHI, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The Indian government and the central bank are taking steps to control inflation, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday, as retail prices have again risen above comfort levels.

Among other moves, the government has increased the import of edible oil as required to rein in inflation and provided free grains to the poor since the COVID-19 pandemic, and would "continuosly monitor prices," Sitharaman said at a post-budget industry interaction in Jaipur.

Last week, India's annual retail inflation rate (INCPIY=ECI) rose above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper tolerance band for the first time in three months to 6.52% in January, as prices rose for food products such as cereals and wheat.

RBI has targeted keeping inflation between 2%-6%.

The RBI will take necessary steps to manage inflation within "expected limits," said Sitharaman, who was accompanied by other finance ministry officials including the chief economic adviser.

Economists have said the soaring prices of cereals such as wheat and rice were a concern for the Indian economy even though the January inflation data may have overstated the extent of the increase.

Some Asian and western countries that have been providing subsidized food and energy since the pandemic started, calculate consumer price index-based inflation using a weighted average of a segment of the population that pays market price for such items and those who don't, said country's Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran.

Since India does not do that, the "stated increase in grains price is not exactly what all consumers bear, therefore stated inflation rate overstates the underlying inflation rate," he said.

In its last monetary policy decision on Feb. 8, RBI raised its key rates by 25 basis points and surprised the markets with its hawkish stance.

India will continue with efforts to curb inflation - finance minister | Reuters

India's sugar output could fall further as cane matures early

SANGLI/SATARA/SOLAPUR, Feb 20 (Reuters) - India is set to produce lesser sugar than previously estimated by industry bodies and government agencies, with the cane crop maturing early and losing weight due to weather conditions in key growing regions, farmers and traders told Reuters.

Lower sugar output could prevent the world's second-biggest exporter from allowing additional exports, potentially supporting global prices, and helping rivals Brazil and Thailand to increase their shipments.

India was estimated to produce 34 to 34.3 million tonnes of sugar in the 2022/23 marketing year ending on Sept. 30, down from last season's 35.8 million tonnes, according to trade bodies last month.

But falling sugar cane yields in top producing Maharashtra state and third-biggest producer Karnataka due to early maturity of the crop has been prompting some trade houses to scale down production estimates further.

"Our current estimate is 33.5 million tonnes. We would not rule out a downside risk to below 33 million tonnes, which would be very concerning for global sugar supplies," Mauro Virgino, head of trading intelligence at Alvean, told Reuters.

Alvean, the world's largest sugar trader, did two extensive field surveys, including one earlier this month, before cutting down the production estimate, Virgino said.

Another global trade house has reduced output estimate to 32.4 million tonnes, anticipating a big drop in Maharashtra's production to around 11.3 million tonnes.

Maharashtra's sugar cane commissioner was expecting the state to produce 12.8 million tonnes.

More than two dozen farmers in the state told Reuters last week that the cane crop has been flowering due to early maturity.

"The cane crop is just 10 months old, but started flowering last month and losing weight," Avinash Thombare, a sugar cane grower from Satara district, said, as he showed the crop with white flowers.

---- The continuous downward revision in output estimate has closed the possibility of additional exports, another government official, who also declined to be named, said.

India has allowed sugar mills to export only 6.1 million tonnes of the sweetener in the current season, down from the record 11 million tonnes exported in the previous season.

The country mainly exports sugar to Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Sudan, Somalia and the United Arab Emirates.

India's sugar output could fall further as cane matures early | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Man who died in Singapore's first case linked to COVID-19 vaccine was otherwise healthy: Coroner

The coroner told employers that workers who have just received a COVID-19 vaccine should not carry out any strenuous activity for the period of time stipulated by experts.

20 Feb 2023 01:49PM

SINGAPORE: A 28-year-old man who died of myocarditis or inflammation of the heart three weeks after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine was otherwise healthy and had worked the day after the jab.

State Coroner Adam Nakhoda had ruled Bangladeshi national Rajib's death a medical misadventure on Feb 15, saying it was likely related to the COVID-19 jab he had received.

The coroner urged employers, especially of workers involved in strenuous labour activity, that workers who have just received a COVID-19 vaccine should not carry out any strenuous activity for the period of time that medical professionals have deemed necessary. 

his is in order to minimise vaccine recipients contracting the possible ill effects of myocarditis and pericarditis, or to mitigate any such effects, he said.

Myocarditis and pericarditis cause inflammation of the heart muscles and inflammation of the heart’s outer lining respectively.

WHAT HAPPENED

According to the coroner's findings which CNA obtained on Monday (Feb 20), Mr Rajib had no known chronic illness and had not reported sick at work before.

Mr Rajib, who is known by one name, worked as a welding supervisor for Sunlight Engineering and stayed at CDPL Tuas Dormitory.

He underwent a full medical assessment by the Ministry of Manpower in February 2013 as part of the usual process for a work permit and was deemed fit for employment.

According to Mr Rajib's employer, Mr Rajib had contracted COVID-19 about a year before his death, but had recovered fully.

He received his first dose of the Moderna/Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine on Jun 18, 2021. He did not complain that he was unwell, and worked the following day.

Three weeks after his jab on Jul 9, 2021, Mr Rajib was working on a tank located under the main deck of a vessel, the Zohan Castberg - FPSO, that was being constructed at Sembcorp Shipyard.

Mr Rajib, who was supervising the work of his colleagues, entered the tank with confined space attendant Sarker Juran to tape aluminium foil over some weld points.

After completing their work at about 6.30pm, the pair began climbing up sets of ladders to the main deck.

Mr Sarker climbed up first and turned to see Mr Rajib climbing. However, when Mr Rajib had ascended one or two rungs, he suddenly fell backwards onto the metal floor of the tank.

He was unconscious and his safety helmet had fallen off.

Mr Rajib was later extricated from the tank by a rescue team and taken to Ng Teng Fong General Hospital, but could not be revived. He was pronounced dead that same night.

An autopsy by Associate Professor Teo Eng Swee of the Health Sciences Authority's Forensic Medicine Division found that Mr Rajib's internal organs were mostly normal, except for his heart. 

Microscopic examination revealed myocarditis in his heart, and the final cause of death was determined to be myocarditis.

More

Man who died in Singapore's first case linked to COVID-19 vaccine was otherwise healthy: Coroner - CNA (channelnewsasia.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

No technology update today. Today some London English fun.

The stupidly confusing London Underground stations where nobody can agree on their correct spellings

February 19, 2023

Apostrophes always have the potential to cause confusion, but for some reason they're at their most tricky when they're in the name of a London Underground station. Why does St James's Park have one but St James Street doesn't? And why does Earl's get one but Barons Court doesn't?

Well, unfortunately the answer isn't black and white. Apostrophes in some place names vary depending on where you read them. There is disparity between Google Maps, Wikipedia and local authorities. However, there are some London Underground stations which always have an apostrophe and others that never do.

The general rule seems to be that apostrophes have slowly moved out of fashion. The ones which have stuck are usually those that someone owns or used to own - such as Earl's Court which was owned by an Earl. Here's a by-no-means definitive guide to which Transport for London stations need apostrophes.

Need an apostrophe

The following places always have apostrophes, no matter what. In most cases this is because the place was once owned by or still does belong to someone.

  • Earl's Court
  • King's Cross
  • Shepherd's Bush
  • Queen's Park
  • Regent's Park
  • St John's Wood
  • Queen's Road (Walthamstow)
  • St James's Park
  • St Paul's

No apostrophes

  • Barons Court (Unlike Earl's Court, Barons lacks an apostrophe because it's a made up name - no baron ever owned it)
  • Bounds Green
  • Rayners Lane
  • Canons Park (It was once owned by a canon, but the apostrophe was dropped years ago)
  • Crews Hill
  • St James Street
  • Highams Park
  • Gants Hill
  • Gallions Reach
  • Emirates Royal Docks
  • Emirates Greenwich Peninsula
  • Devons Road
  • Colliers Wood
  • Phipps Bridge

More

The stupidly confusing London Underground stations where nobody can agree on their correct spellings (msn.com)

“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”

Albert Einstein. 

No comments:

Post a Comment