Baltic Dry Index. 552 +14 Brent Crude 82.95
Spot Gold 1839 US 2 Year Yield 4.60 Fri.
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 21/02/23 World 678,801,657
Deaths 6,791,793
“If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it?”
To very little surprise, President Biden finally made the obligatory Great Leaders train ride into Kiev for a solidarity morale boost to Ukraine.
That President Biden would visit Poland and not take the train ride to Kiev, always seemed unlikely and would have generated much bad PR to say the least. All the more so, since Russia has long since unofficially recognised the Polish – Kiev diplomatic train corridor.
The BBC World Service has reported that Russia was informed of the coming trip last week, but for security reasons, all involved agreed to keep it a secret mission. Well secret from the US media and public.
Sadly, it will do nothing to end Europe’s useless, unnecessary war. One that, depending on what happens to Ukraine’s winter and spring planted crops, threatens a second year of food price inflation for all.
Later today, President Putin gets to deliver a much awaited speech.
In casinos news, the US markets return from celebrating Presidents Day and await tomorrow the latest news from the Federal Reserve’s last meetings.
Asia markets
mixed as investors digest private surveys on factory activity
UPDATED TUE, FEB 21 2023 1:00 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Tuesday as
investors await regional private surveys for factory activity.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 closed
0.21% lower as investors digest the nation’s Judo Bank composite purchasing
managers’ index, which climbed to 49.2, below the 50-mark that separates growth
and contraction.
The PMI index encompasses
services and manufacturing, and is seen as a reliable gauge of economic health.
The Reserve Bank of Australia
released minutes from its February policy meeting, which reiterated comments
from governor Philip Lowe that more interest rate hikes will be needed.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index led
losses in the region as it fell 1.14% lower, and the Hang Seng Tech index slid
2.44%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell
0.15% and the Topix was marginally higher, with Japan’s PMI index coming in
lower at 47.4. down from 48.9 in January.
South Korea’s Kospi also rose
0.2% while the Kosdaq was 0.33% higher.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component shed
0.16%, and the Shanghai
Composite also was up 0.15%.
While U.S. markets were closed due to
Presidents’ day holiday, U.S futures fell on Monday night following a week
during which higher interest rates kept investor sentiment in check.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures dipped 88 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures dipped
0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures pulled
back by 0.2%.
Asia
markets mixed as investors digest private surveys on factory activity
(cnbc.com)
Stock futures
fall as Dow tries to rebound from its third-straight weekly decline: Live
updates
UPDATED MON, FEB 20 2023 7:00 PM
EST
U.S. stock
futures fell Monday night following a week during which higher interest rates
kept investor sentiment in check.
Dow
Jones Industrial Average futures dipped
102 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500
futures also
dipped 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures pulled
back by 0.1%. U.S. markets were closed Monday due to the Presidents Day
holiday.
The Dow fell 0.1%
last week, marking its third straight weekly decline. The S&P 500 slid for
a second consecutive week, losing 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bucked
the trend, rising 0.6%.
Those moves came
as traders grappled with hotter-than-expected
inflation data, which pushed Treasury yields to levels not seen
since November. Traders are worried that stubborn inflation will lead the
Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer — which could tip the economy
into a recession.
“We believe a
recession is virtually inevitable, but we do not believe it will begin until
sometime between the beginning and the middle of 2024,” Doug Peta, chief U.S.
investment strategist at BCA Research, said in a note. “Such a delay would give
equities a window to rally.”
The Fed on Wednesday
is scheduled to release the minutes from its meeting of Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. The
central bank hiked rates by 25 basis points after that meeting.
Traders will also
parse through corporate earnings from retail giants Walmart and Home Depot to
gauge how the consumer is doing.
G-7 finance
chiefs to meet on Feb. 23 to discuss measures against Russia
Financial leaders of
the Group of Seven
will meet on Feb. 23 to discuss measures against Russia that
will put pressure on it to end the Ukraine war,
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday.
Japan will chair
the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from
the G7 nations in the Indian city of Bengaluru. The meeting will
come almost a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, calling it a
“special military operation.”
The war has raged on
despite a slew of punitive measures G7 and other countries have
taken against Russia.
“Support for Ukraine
and sanctions against Russia will be the main topics
of discussion,” Suzuki told a news conference. “We will continue to
closely coordinate with G7 and the international community to enhance
the effect of sanctions to achieve the ultimate goal of
prompting Russia to withdraw.”
Japan
chairs G7 ministerial meetings this year in the run-up to the
May 19-21 summit meeting of G7 leaders in Hiroshima.
The G7 comprises Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and
the United States.
The G7 meeting
will be followed later in the week by a broader gathering of G20 financial
leaders from the world’s major economies, which will be hosted in Bengaluru by
India, which has the G20 presidency.
The Ukraine war and
the global economy are expected to be the focus of the G20 talks.
It
will discuss inflation that has been heightened by Russia’s war,
energy and food prices, and support for emerging market economies facing debt
problems. A failure to tackle emerging market debt could lead to a financial
crisis, a senior Japanese official said earlier.
More
G7
finance chiefs to meet in Feb to discuss measures against Russia (cnbc.com)
Finally, more on close to collapse Pakistan.
Grim and getting grimmer as the economy starts grinding to a stop. How long has
Pakistan got?
Pakistan
current account deficit falls to $0.2 billion in Jan - cenbank
February 20, 2023 10:01 AM GMT
KARACHI,
Pakistan, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) dropped
to $0.2 billion in January 2023, down 90% from last year as the rupee's
depreciation slowed down imports, the central bank said on Monday.
In less than a
month, the cash strapped nation’s currency has lost more than a quarter of its
value against the U.S. dollar after the removal of artificial caps, and fuel
prices have risen by more than a fifth as the government implemented fiscal
measures required to unlocking funds from an International Monetary Fund (IMF)
bailout.
During the first
seven months of the current fiscal year, the country’s current account deficit
decreased by 67% to $3.8 billion, compared with a deficit of $11.6 billion
during the same period last year.
“This monthly
deficit is lowest after 25 months, and lower than expectations,” said Mohammad
Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities. Sohail, citing the falling currency. The
weaker currency has made imports more expensive, effectively slashing them.
Tahir Abbas, Head of
Research at Arif Habib Limited said that imports under machinery group and
transport group have gone down 47% and 61% respectively was primarily due to
stringent administrative measures taken by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in
addition to the economic slowdown.
Pakistan current account deficit falls to $0.2 billion in Jan - cenbank | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Ericsson
to cut 1,400 jobs in Sweden
February 20, 2023 11:44 AM GMT
STOCKHOLM, Feb 20
(Reuters) - Telecoms gear maker Ericsson (ERICb.ST) plans
to cut about 1,400 jobs in Sweden as part of a broader plan to reduce costs
globally, it said on Monday.
The company had
earlier announced plans to
cut costs by 9 billion crowns ($880 million) by the end of 2023 as demand slows
in some markets, including North America.
Further job cuts,
numbering several thousands in other countries, are likely to be announced in
the coming days, said two sources close to the matter.
Ericsson last
made deep cuts in 2017 when it laid off thousands of employees and focused on
research to pull the company out of losses.
The company was
negotiating with its employee union in Sweden for months on how to handle cost
cuts.
Agreement has now
been reached with Swedish unions on how to manage headcount reductions, a
spokesperson said, adding that the company intends to make the cuts through a
voluntary programme.
Ericsson to cut
1,400 jobs in Sweden | Reuters
India
will continue with efforts to curb inflation - finance minister
February 20, 2023 9:15 AM GMT
NEW DELHI, Feb 20
(Reuters) - The Indian government and the central bank are taking steps to
control inflation, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday, as
retail prices have again risen above comfort levels.
Among other
moves, the government has increased the import of edible oil as required to
rein in inflation and provided free grains to the poor since the COVID-19
pandemic, and would "continuosly monitor prices," Sitharaman said at
a post-budget industry interaction in Jaipur.
Last week,
India's annual retail inflation rate (INCPIY=ECI) rose
above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper tolerance band for the first time
in three months to 6.52% in January, as prices rose for food products such as
cereals and wheat.
RBI has targeted
keeping inflation between 2%-6%.
The RBI will take
necessary steps to manage inflation within "expected limits," said
Sitharaman, who was accompanied by other finance ministry officials including
the chief economic adviser.
Economists have
said the soaring prices of cereals such as wheat and rice were a concern for
the Indian economy even though the January inflation data may have overstated the
extent of the increase.
Some Asian and
western countries that have been providing subsidized food and energy since the
pandemic started, calculate consumer price index-based inflation using a
weighted average of a segment of the population that pays market price for such
items and those who don't, said country's Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha
Nageswaran.
Since India does
not do that, the "stated increase in grains price is not exactly what all
consumers bear, therefore stated inflation rate overstates the underlying
inflation rate," he said.
In its last
monetary policy decision on Feb. 8, RBI raised its key rates by
25 basis points and surprised the markets with its hawkish stance.
India will
continue with efforts to curb inflation - finance minister | Reuters
India's
sugar output could fall further as cane matures early
February 20, 2023 10:43 AM GMT
SANGLI/SATARA/SOLAPUR,
Feb 20 (Reuters) - India is set to produce lesser sugar than previously
estimated by industry bodies and government agencies, with the cane crop
maturing early and losing weight due to weather conditions in key growing
regions, farmers and traders told Reuters.
Lower sugar
output could prevent the world's second-biggest exporter from allowing
additional exports, potentially supporting global prices, and helping rivals
Brazil and Thailand to increase their shipments.
India was
estimated to produce 34 to 34.3 million
tonnes of sugar in the 2022/23 marketing year ending on Sept. 30, down from
last season's 35.8 million tonnes, according to trade bodies last month.
But falling sugar
cane yields in top producing Maharashtra state and third-biggest producer
Karnataka due to early maturity of the crop has been prompting some trade
houses to scale down production estimates further.
"Our current
estimate is 33.5 million tonnes. We would not rule out a downside risk to below
33 million tonnes, which would be very concerning for global sugar
supplies," Mauro Virgino, head of trading intelligence at Alvean, told
Reuters.
Alvean, the
world's largest sugar trader, did two extensive field surveys, including one
earlier this month, before cutting down the production estimate, Virgino said.
Another global
trade house has reduced output estimate to 32.4 million tonnes, anticipating a
big drop in Maharashtra's production to around 11.3 million tonnes.
Maharashtra's
sugar cane commissioner was expecting the state to produce 12.8 million tonnes.
More than two
dozen farmers in the state told Reuters last week that the cane crop has been
flowering due to early maturity.
"The cane
crop is just 10 months old, but started flowering last month and losing
weight," Avinash Thombare, a sugar cane grower from Satara district, said,
as he showed the crop with white flowers.
---- The
continuous downward revision in output estimate has closed the possibility of
additional exports, another government official, who also declined to be named,
said.
India has allowed
sugar mills to export only 6.1 million tonnes of the sweetener in the current
season, down from the record 11 million tonnes exported in the previous season.
The country mainly exports
sugar to Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Sudan, Somalia and the United Arab
Emirates.
India's sugar
output could fall further as cane matures early | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Man
who died in Singapore's first case linked to COVID-19 vaccine was otherwise
healthy: Coroner
The coroner
told employers that workers who have just received a COVID-19 vaccine should
not carry out any strenuous activity for the period of time stipulated by
experts.
20 Feb 2023 01:49PM
SINGAPORE:
A 28-year-old man who died of myocarditis or inflammation of the heart three weeks after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine
was otherwise healthy and had worked the day after the jab.
State
Coroner Adam Nakhoda had ruled Bangladeshi national Rajib's death a medical
misadventure on Feb 15, saying it was likely related to the COVID-19 jab he had
received.
The
coroner urged employers, especially of workers involved in strenuous labour
activity, that workers who have just received a COVID-19 vaccine should not
carry out any strenuous activity for the period of time that medical
professionals have deemed necessary.
his is in
order to minimise vaccine recipients contracting the possible ill effects of
myocarditis and pericarditis, or to mitigate any such effects, he said.
Myocarditis
and pericarditis cause inflammation of the heart muscles and inflammation of
the heart’s outer lining respectively.
According
to the coroner's findings which CNA obtained on Monday (Feb 20), Mr Rajib had
no known chronic illness and had not reported sick at work before.
Mr Rajib,
who is known by one name, worked as a welding supervisor for Sunlight
Engineering and stayed at CDPL Tuas Dormitory.
He
underwent a full medical assessment by the Ministry of Manpower in February
2013 as part of the usual process for a work permit and was deemed fit for
employment.
According
to Mr Rajib's employer, Mr Rajib had contracted COVID-19 about a year before
his death, but had recovered fully.
He
received his first dose of the Moderna/Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine on Jun 18,
2021. He did not complain that he was unwell, and worked the following day.
Three weeks
after his jab on Jul 9, 2021, Mr Rajib was working on a tank located under the
main deck of a vessel, the Zohan Castberg - FPSO, that was being constructed at
Sembcorp Shipyard.
Mr Rajib,
who was supervising the work of his colleagues, entered the tank with confined
space attendant Sarker Juran to tape aluminium foil over some weld points.
After
completing their work at about 6.30pm, the pair began climbing up sets of
ladders to the main deck.
Mr
Sarker climbed up first and turned to see Mr Rajib climbing. However, when Mr
Rajib had ascended one or two rungs, he suddenly fell backwards onto the metal
floor of the tank.
He
was unconscious and his safety helmet had fallen off.
Mr
Rajib was later extricated from the tank by a rescue team and taken to Ng Teng
Fong General Hospital, but could not be revived. He was pronounced dead that
same night.
An
autopsy by Associate Professor Teo Eng Swee of the Health Sciences Authority's
Forensic Medicine Division found that Mr Rajib's internal organs were mostly normal,
except for his heart.
Microscopic examination
revealed myocarditis in his heart, and the final cause of death was determined
to be myocarditis.
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
No technology update today. Today some
London English fun.
The stupidly
confusing London Underground stations where nobody can agree on their correct
spellings
February
19, 2023
Apostrophes always have the
potential to cause confusion, but for some reason they're at their most tricky
when they're in the name of a London Underground station. Why does St James's Park have one but St
James Street doesn't? And why does Earl's get one but Barons Court doesn't?
Well, unfortunately the
answer isn't black and white. Apostrophes in some place names vary depending on
where you read them. There is disparity between Google Maps, Wikipedia and
local authorities. However, there are some London Underground stations which always have an apostrophe and others
that never do.
The general rule seems to be
that apostrophes have slowly moved out of fashion. The ones which have stuck
are usually those that someone owns or used to own - such as Earl's Court which
was owned by an Earl. Here's a by-no-means definitive guide to which Transport for London stations need apostrophes.
Need an apostrophe
The following places always
have apostrophes, no matter what. In most cases this is because the place was
once owned by or still does belong to someone.
- Earl's Court
- King's Cross
- Shepherd's
Bush
- Queen's Park
- Regent's Park
- St John's
Wood
- Queen's Road
(Walthamstow)
- St James's
Park
- St Paul's
No apostrophes
- Barons Court
(Unlike Earl's Court, Barons lacks an apostrophe because it's a made up
name - no baron ever owned it)
- Bounds Green
- Rayners Lane
- Canons Park
(It was once owned by a canon, but the apostrophe was dropped years ago)
- Crews Hill
- St James
Street
- Highams Park
- Gants Hill
- Gallions
Reach
- Emirates
Royal Docks
- Emirates Greenwich Peninsula
- Devons Road
- Colliers Wood
- Phipps Bridge
More
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