Monday, 20 February 2023

War Year Two. A Tricky Week.

 Baltic Dry Index. 538 +08                Brent Crude 83.67

Spot Gold 1845                    US 2 Year Yield 4.60 -0.02

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 20/02/23 World 678,700,643

Deaths 6,791,125

There is no art which one government sooner learns of another than that of draining money from the pockets of the people.

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

With US markets closed today for a pre-Spring shopping holiday, aka Presidents Day, the global stock casinos face a nervous day largely awaiting news from later in the week.

President Biden heads to Europe this week to deliver more aid and support for Ukraine in its NATO proxy war with Russia.

Of concern, as the war enters its second year this week, how well will Spring planting take place this year, plus how much fertiliser was available within Ukraine.

As noted below, grain shipments from Ukraine have lately been falling, generating concern about more food price inflation to come.

 

Asia markets mostly rise ahead of Fed minutes; China leaves loan prime rates unchanged

UPDATED MON, FEB 20 2023 12:08 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher on Monday, as investors look ahead to a batch of economic data later in the week, including minutes for the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The People’s Bank of China left its 1-year and 5-year prime loan rates unchanged, widely in line with expectations. The Shenzhen Component was up 0.81%, while the Shanghai Composite rose 1%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index gained 0.43% and the Hang Seng Tech index rose 0.67%.

In South Korea, the Kospi was also marginally lower while defense stocks traded mixed after North Korea fired missiles towards its eastern waters. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was fractionally lower, with the Topix up 0.34% as investors looked ahead to the nominated Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda’s appearance in parliament slated for Friday.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 traded flat as the minutes for Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting is scheduled to be released Tuesday.

On Wall Street, stocks ended Friday mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying more than 100 points. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both fell. U.S. markets will be closed for Presidents’ day.

Asia markets, U.S. FOMC minutes, PMI, RBNZ, RBA minutes, Australia wage prices (cnbc.com)

Morning Bid: Up, up and away

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

Asian shares edged up from their lowest levels in about one month but trading was slow ahead of minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting and a reading on core inflation, with rising interest rates still seen as a risk for markets.

In Europe, money markets show that investors are already betting on a peak European Central Bank rate around 3.75% by late summer, up from levels around 3.4% earlier this month.

Investors are unwinding earlier bets after a string of hawkish comments from policymakers, forcing European shares to retreat further from one-year highs.

ECB officials have highlighted their fears about stubborn underlying inflation.

The central bank raised rates by 50 basis points this month and pre-announced another increase of the same size for March 16 but it kept an open mind about future moves, with most policymakers expecting another rate hike in May.

Geopolitical tensions heightened again as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi of consequences should China provide material support to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saying in an interview after the two met that Washington was concerned Beijing was considering supplying weapons to Moscow.

Meanwhile, in a week when India hosts the year's first G20 finance and central bank chiefs meeting, from Feb. 22-25, tough global discussions over debt forgiveness for poor nations are going to get even trickier.

China, the world's largest bilateral creditor, is under fire for playing tough on terms.

Stand-out items on this week's economic calendar include the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, earnings reports from big U.S. retailers, global flash PMIs, and inflation readings from the euro zone and Japan.

More

Morning Bid: Up, up and away | Reuters

In cryptoland, has the peak already passed?  Will regulation kill off all the many scams?

World Wide Web inventor Tim Berners-Lee calls crypto ‘dangerous’ and likens it to gambling

Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the World Wide Web, called cryptocurrency “dangerous” and likened it to gambling in an episode of CNBC’s “Beyond The Valley” podcast published last Friday.

Discussing the future of the web, Berners-Lee said digital currencies are “only speculative” and compared it to the dot-com bubble, in which internet stocks, often without a solid business behind them, were highly inflated.

“It’s only speculative. Obviously, that’s really dangerous,” Berners-Lee told CNBC. ”[It’s] if you want to have a kick out of gambling, basically.”

“Investing in certain things, which is purely speculative, isn’t what, where I want to spend my time,” he added.

Berners-Lee said, however, that digital currencies could be useful for remittances if they’re immediately converted back into fiat currency when they’re received.

The British computer scientist is credited with inventing the World Wide Web in 1989. But Berners-Lee has been dissatisfied with the way his original vision for the web has panned out. Alongside John Bruce, Berners-Lee is looking to reshape the future of the internet through his startup Inrupt, with the aim of giving people more control of their data. Both spoke to CNBC’s “Beyond The Valley” in a wide-ranging interview about the future of the internet.

More

Web inventor Berners-Lee calls crypto dangerous, likens it to gambling (cnbc.com)

The SEC has a stablecoin firm in its sights — and it could shake up the whole $137 billion market

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could be gearing up to take action against Paxos, a company that issues a type of cryptocurrency called stablecoin.

The move will have major implications for the $137 billion market, experts told CNBC.

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to mirror real-world assets such as the U.S. dollar.

These stablecoins are often backed by real assets such as bonds or cash in reserve. They have become the backbone of the crypto market as they allow people to trade in and out of different coins quickly without having to convert in and out of fiat currency.

Paxos issued a digital currency called Binance USD or BUSD. It is a stablecoin associated with Binance, one of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchanges. BUSD is pegged one-to-one with the U.S. dollar.

Last week, New York state’s financial regulator ordered Paxos to stop issuing BUSD.

Separately, Paxos said that the SEC had issued it a notice that the regulator is considering recommending an action alleging that BUSD is a security. Paxos said the notice suggests Paxos should have registered the offering of BUSD under federal securities laws. 

The SEC hasn’t started official action. But the agency’s actions are being watched closely because if it starts an official procedure, it could have huge implications for all stablecoins including tether and USDC, the two largest which combined are worth $110 billion.

“If the SEC charges Paxos, any other issuer of stablecoins should register or prepare for a court fight with the SEC,” Renato Mariotti, a partner at law firm BCLP, told CNBC.

---- If BUSD is deemed a security by the SEC then the regulator would have oversight over the stablecoin. Whatever company issues BUSD would need to register with the SEC and accept more stringent regulation.

Another implication is that other stablecoins will also be given the same label.

“The basis for that action will necessarily be fact-specific to the Paxos BUSD structure but will likely have wide ranging implications for other stablecoin issuers selling coins into the U.S.,” Townsend Lansing, head of product at CoinShares, told CNBC.

More

How the SEC and Paxos-BUSD fight could impact the stablecoin market (cnbc.com)

Binance's U.S. partner confirms firm run by CEO Zhao operated on exchange

LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. partner of global cryptocurrency exchange Binance has confirmed that a trading firm managed by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao operated as a market maker on its platform.

Reuters reported on Thursday, citing banking records and company messages, that Binance had secret access to a bank account belonging to its purportedly independent U.S. partner and transferred large sums of money from the account to the trading firm, Merit Peak Ltd.

"While there was a market making firm named Merit Peak that operated on the Binance.US platform, it stopped all activity on the platform in 2021," Binance.US said in a tweet on Thursday after the Reuters story was published. It did not elaborate on when in 2021 the activity ceased, or comment on Zhao's role at the trading firm.

The global Binance exchange is not licensed to operate in the United States but the transfers to Merit Peak revealed by Reuters suggest that Binance controlled the finances of Binance.US, despite saying publicly that the American entity is "fully independent" and operates as its "U.S. partner."

Binance transferred over $400 million from the account at California-based Silvergate Bank to Merit Peak between January and March of 2021, Reuters reported on Thursday.

Before that story's publication, Binance.US had told Reuters that "Merit Peak is neither trading nor providing any kind of services on the Binance.US platform," without giving further details.

Binance.US's executives were concerned by the outflows from the Silvergate account to Merit Peak because the transfers were taking place without their knowledge, according to the company messages reviewed by Reuters.

A spokesperson for the global Binance exchange, which did not respond to Reuters' questions for the story on Thursday, told crypto news outlet CoinDesk that the transfers were "a Binance.US issue."

Zhao, the Binance CEO, said on Friday that the global exchange has pulled back on potential investments in the United States, a move that comes amid growing scrutiny by U.S. regulators of crypto companies so far this year.

In particular, the activities of crypto platforms' market makers - firms that typically buy and sell assets at exchanges to deepen trading volumes - have drawn regulatory and political focus since the collapse of major exchange FTX in November.

More

Binance's U.S. partner confirms firm run by CEO Zhao operated on exchange | Reuters

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Ukrainian grain shipments drop as ship backups grow

By COURTNEY BONNELL, Associated Press February 10 2023

LONDON (AP) — The amount of grain leaving Ukraine has dropped even as a U.N.-brokered deal works to keep food flowing to developing nations, with inspections of ships falling to half what they were four months ago and a backlog of vessels growing as Russia's invasion nears the one-year mark.

Ukrainian and some U.S. officials are blaming Russia for slowing down inspections, which Moscow has denied. Less wheat, barley and other grain getting out of Ukraine, dubbed the “breadbasket of the world, ” raises concerns about the impact to those going hungry in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia — places that rely on affordable food supplies from the Black Sea region.

The hurdles come as separate agreements brokered last summer by Turkey and the U.N. to keep supplies moving from the warring nations and reduce soaring food prices are up for renewal next month. Russia is also a top global supplier of wheat, other grain, sunflower oil and fertilizer, and officials have complained about the holdup in shipping the nutrients critical to crops.

Under the deal, food exports from three Ukrainian ports have dropped from 3.7 million metric tons in December to 3 million in January, according to the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul. That's where inspection teams from Russia, Ukraine, the U.N. and Turkey ensure ships carry only agricultural products and no weapons.

The drop in supply equates to about a month of food consumption for Kenya and Somalia combined. It follows average inspections per day slowing to 5.7 last month and 6 so far this month, down from the peak of 10.6 in October.

That has helped lead to backups in the number of vessels waiting in the waters off Turkey to either be checked or join the Black Sea Grain Initiative. There are 152 ships in line, the JCC said, a 50% increase from January.

This month, vessels are waiting an average of 28 days between applying to participate and being inspected, said Ruslan Sakhautdinov, head of Ukraine's delegation to the JCC. That's a week longer than in January.

Factors like poor weather hindering inspectors’ work, demand from shippers to join the initiative, port activity and capacity of vessels also affect shipments.

“I think it will grow to be a problem if the inspections continue to be this slow,” said William Osnato, a senior research analyst at agriculture data and analytics firm Gro Intelligence. “In a month or two, you’ll realize that’s a couple a million tons that didn’t come out because it’s just going too slowly.”

“By creating the bottleneck, you’re creating sort of this gap of the flow, but as long as they’re getting some out, it’s not a total disaster,” he added.

----Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said in statement Wednesday on Facebook that Russian inspectors have been “systematically delaying the inspection of vessels” for months.

They accused Moscow of obstructing work under the deal and then “taking advantage of the opportunity of uninterrupted trade shipping from Russian Black Sea ports.”

Osnato also raised the possibility that Russia might be slowing inspections “in order to pick up more business” after harvesting a large wheat crop. Figures from financial data provider Refinitiv show that Russian wheat exports more than doubled to 3.8 million tons last month from January 2022, before the invasion.

Russian wheat shipments were at or near record highs in November, December and January, increasing 24% over the same three months a year earlier, according to Refinitiv. It estimated Russia would export 44 million tons of wheat in 2022-2023.

Alexander Pchelyakov, a spokesman for the Russian diplomatic mission to U.N. institutions in Geneva, said last month that the allegations of deliberate slowdowns are “simply not true.”

Russian officials also have complained that the country's fertilizer is not being exported under the agreement, leaving renewal of the four-month deal that expires March 18 in question.

More

Ukrainian grain shipments drop as ship backups grow (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

COVID-19 Can Cause Viral-Induced Trauma

Virus interrupts a process linked to depression, leading to higher percentages of PTSD than war veterans

Feb 16 2023


COVID-19 infections are responsible for an upswing in post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), but now the underlying mechanisms are emerging from research, offering a deeper understanding of this virus-induced mental health disorder.

A metabolic process ongoing in the gut is interrupted when angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE-2), the receptor site for SARS-CoV-2, is occupied by the virus.

 

Tryptophan transporter is typically co-expressed with ACE-2, but when the virus is taking over ACE-2, tryptophan is not absorbed.

 

This is problematic because tryptophan, an essential amino acid that must be taken in by the diet, plays a vital role in making serotonin and melatonin. Tryptophan—found in foods like bananas, oats, tuna, chicken, cheese, and turkey—is the sole precursor for serotonin, a neurotransmitter involved in mood, behavior, and cognition. About 30 percent of those with acute COVID infections also have PTSD.

 

“As serotonin is an antidepressant, the virus can cause depression directly,” Dr. Adonis Sfera, psychiatrist, told The Epoch Times. “Tryptophan is also important for PTSD and we think that virus-induced PTSD occurs because of low tryptophan. Thus, in addition to being depressed because they got infected, people can develop depression and PTSD directly by virus-disrupted tryptophan absorption.”

 

This may explain the phenomenon of infections causing higher percentages of PTSD than those seen in military and war veterans, which is about 16 percent. Besides COVID, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and Ebola are also associated with PTSD rates of 30 percent or higher.

 

Furthermore, Sfera and others hypothesized in 2021 that COVID disrupts the intestinal and blood-brain barriers and produces premature endothelial cell senescence, a cellular arrest process involved in age-related disease. This can activate stress molecules, and give them access to the amygdala and other areas of the brain. It explains not only PTSD but also other symptoms of long-COVID such as chronic fatigue and brain fog. Those findings have since been validated by other studies.

More

COVID-19 Can Cause Viral-Induced Trauma (theepochtimes.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Heat-loving lightweight superalloy promises higher turbine efficiency

Loz Blain  February 09, 2023

Researchers have used a novel 3D printing technique to create a new superalloy with "previously unobtainable combinations of high strength, low weight and high-temperature resiliency" – and they say the implications in aerospace and energy are huge.

One factor limiting the output of today's power stations is the metals used in the blades, bearings and seals of their steam turbines, which tend to soften and elongate well before their melting point. Solve these problems, and you could conceivably raise temperatures on anything that converts heat to electricity using a steam turbine, with a resulting boost in efficiency and a reduction in waste heat being lost.

Researchers at Sandia Labs, Ames National Laboratory and Iowa State University say they've created a 3D-printable high-performance superalloy that's stronger and lighter than the state-of-the-art high-temperature alloys used today. They've published their findings in the journal Applied Materials Today.

Composed of 42% aluminum, 25% titanium, 13% niobium, 8% zirconium, 8% molybdenum and 4% tantalum, this material is an example of a "multi-principal-element superalloy," or MPES. Most alloys are made chiefly out of one primary element, combined with low concentrations of other elements to boost certain properties, but multi-principal-element alloys have high concentrations of three or more elements.

According to the research team, a wide variety of these alloys are showing great promise on a number of metrics; strength-to-weight, fracture toughness, corrosion and radiation resistance, wear resistance, and others. But the MPES subset this team has explored excels at high strength in high-temperature situations.

"The specific strength of the MPES based on the ratio of hardness and density is 1.8–2.6 GPa-cm3/g," reads the study, "a value that surpasses all known alloys, including intermetallic compounds and legacy titanium aluminides, refractory MPEAs, and conventional Ni-based superalloys. This specific strength is a 300% improvement over Inconel 718 based on measured peak hardness [28] of 4.5 GPa and density of 8.2 g/cm3, which gives a ratio of 0.55 GPa-cm3/g."

It's also designed specifically to be 3D-printable in powdered form, enabling it to be laid out in "unusual nanoscale microstructures" that the research team found were "insensitive to exposure at 800 °C [1,472 °F] for one hour" – considerably hotter than the 570-odd °C (1,058 °F) at which a typical coal-based power plant runs.

The researchers say this work points to a larger class of MPES materials ready to be explored, with immediately interesting potential in aerospace as well as energy. They warn that further work on the 3D printing process is needed before they'll reliably be able to produce large parts in these alloys without microscopic cracks, and that the feedstock includes some fairly expensive metals that'll make this particular MPES tough to scale up for broader use in applications where cost is a high priority.

“With all those caveats, if this is scalable and we can make a bulk part out of this, it’s a game changer,” says Sandia scientist Andrew Kustas in a press release. “We’re showing that this material can access previously unobtainable combinations of high strength, low weight and high-temperature resiliency. We think part of the reason we achieved this is because of the additive manufacturing approach.”

The study is open access in the journal Applied Materials Today.

Heat-loving lightweight superalloy promises higher turbine efficiency (newatlas.com)

By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland, and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries. Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all foreign wines, merely to encourage the making of claret and burgundy in Scotland?

Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.

 

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