Baltic Dry Index. 621 -19 Brent Crude 80.28
Spot Gold 1878 US 2 Year Yield 4.30 +0.21
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 06/02/23 World 676,264,168
Deaths 6,772,226
How long before the EUSSR runs out of diesel? How long has Europe got?
The poorly thought-out EU Russian refined products ban started on Sunday. Replacing Russian refined oil products won’t be easy nor cheap.
Given diesel’s massive use in transportation, how long does Europe have before a diesel ban backfires?
Hopefully, most of Europe has stocked up on Russian refined oil products before the new ban took effect, but even if they did how long can Europe get by with less diesel restocking and at a much higher price?
Stick around for Spring and Summer, we are all about to find out. Maybe Germany can go back to making diesel, from coal.
As I write this morning news of a terrible earthquake in Turkey is still coming in.
While our immediate thoughts are with the
survivors and injured, the region hosts a major oil terminal at Ceyhan handling
crude oil from the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. There is as yet no
information as to any damage or disruption. But given the earthquakes size and
location, I would be surprised if there isn’t disruption at least.
Powerful
earthquake kills at least 200 in Turkey and Syria, toll expected to rise
A powerful 7.8
magnitude earthquake hit southern Turkey and northern Syria early Monday,
toppling buildings and triggering a frantic search for survivors in the rubble
in cities and towns across the area. At least 207 were killed and hundreds
injured, and the toll was expected to rise.
On both sides of the
border, residents were jolted out of sleep by the tremors several hours before
dawn and rushed outside in a cold, rainy and snowy winter night. Dozens of
buildings collapsed in cities across the border region.
Rescue workers and
residents frantically searched for survivors under the rubble of crushed
buildings in multiple cities on both sides of the border, working through
tangles of metal and chunks of concrete.
In the Turkish city
of Adana, witnesses said they heard one person calling for help from beneath
the rubble of a building. “I don’t have the strength to carry on,” the person
cried. Further east in Diyarbakir, cranes and rescue teams worked at a mountain
of pancaked concrete floors that was once an apartment building.
On the Syrian side of
the border, the quake smashed opposition-held regions that are packed with some
4 million people displaced from other parts of Syria by the country’s long
civil war. Many of them live in decrepit conditions with little health care. At
least 11 were killed in one town, Atmeh, and many more were buried in the
rubble, a doctor in the town, Muheeb Qaddour, told The Associated Press by
telephone.
“We fear that the
deaths are in the hundreds,” Qaddour said, referring to the rebel-held
northwest. “We are under extreme pressure.”
The quake, felt as
far away as Cairo, was centered about 90 kilometers (60 miles) from the Syrian
border, just north of the city of Gaziantep, a major Turkish provincial capital
of more than 2 million people. The region has been shaped by more than a decade
of war in Syria. Millions of Syrian refugees live in Turkey. The swath of Syria
affected by the quake is divided between government-held and opposition-held
areas.
At least 20
aftershocks followed, some hours later during daylight, the strongest measuring
6.6, Turkish authorities said.
More
Turkey,
Syria earthquake latest updates: Deaths toll crosses 200 (cnbc.com)
In stock casino news.
Asia markets
mostly fall as U.S. jobs report show room for more hikes; Adani saga continues
UPDATED SUN, FEB 5 2023 9:01 PM
EST
Stocks in
the Asia-Pacific mostly fell on Monday as a stronger-than-expected jobs
report from the U.S. worrying investors the Federal Reserve has
room for more interest rate hikes, as it continued its efforts to
control inflation.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
2% as property and technology stocks led losses. The Shenzhen Component shed
1% and the Shanghai Composite also
lost 0.9%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained
0.9% and the Topix rose 0.5% while the Kospi in
South Korea fell 0.7% and the Kosdaq lost 0.4%. The S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.15%.
Stocks of Adani Group will
continue to be closely watched at Mumbai open, as allegations of stock
manipulation and accounting fraud raised by Hindenburg raises concerns of
spillover effects on wider Indian markets and Wall Street lenders. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index showed founder
and chairman Gautam Adani’s net worth further on Friday, as his net worth fell
by more than 51.1%, or $61.6 billion, year-to-date.
Stocks on Wall Street fell on Friday, after the
jobs report, and the 10-year Treasury yield topped
3.5% after jumping more than 12 basis points following the
report.
Apple shares jumped
2.4% as the company reported a drop in sales in largest
quarterly revenue decline since 2016, Google-parent
Alphabet fell 2.8% following disappointing results. Amazon’s
stock also declined 8.4% in its worst day since April after its earnings report.
Stock futures
slide to start week with more earnings and a Powell speech ahead
UPDATED SUN, FEB 5 2023 7:47 PM
EST
U.S. stock
futures were lower to start trading for the new week as investors awaited more
earnings and an important speech from Federal Reserve Chairman
Jerome Powell.
Investors were also taking some
profits after the stock market’s hot start to the year. The S&P 500 is up
more than 7% for 2023. The Nasdaq Composite is up the last five weeks in a row.
Dow Jones Industrial average futures lost 69
points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures were lower by 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures
fell by 0.3%.
Karl Chalupa, CEO of Gamma
Investment Consulting said earnings could worsen further as the economy slows
later this year and noted that no recovery from a major bear market low has
occurred in the last 60 years when stocks were not at least fairly valued.
“On average, new bull markets
launched when stocks were 25% undervalued,” he said. “At current valuation, the
S&P 500 would need to fall below 3,500 just to reach fair value; a decline
to 25% undervaluation would see the S&P 500 fall near to its Covid-low of
2,200.”
Disney, Chipotle, Dupont and
PepsiCo are among the major companies reporting earnings this week. We are
about halfway through fourth-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 and
the results have not been great. Profits for S&P 500 companies are on pace
to be 2.7% lower for the fourth quarter, according to Refinitiv. Tyson Foods
and Cummins report on Monday, but the major reports pick up later in the week.
Markets will likely be on edge
ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday before the
Economic Club of Washington. Powell’s comments on disinflation caused investors
to bid shares higher last week and overlook another rate hike out of the
central bank. There is very little economic data due on Monday.
“While interest rates may be near
their peak, it would take an actual sharp drop in rates combined with resurgent
earnings growth for valuation to improve substantially without a further drop
in stock prices,” Chalipa added.
Investors seem to be looking past
rate hikes and poor earnings and focusing on recent data that is showing
inflation trending lower in the hopes that the economy is headed for a soft
landing and profits will be revived later in the year. The S&P 500 just
formed a bullish “Golden
Cross” pattern and touched a 5-month high last week above the
4,100 level. The Nasdaq’s 5-week winning streak is its first since November
2021.
Stock
futures slide to start week with more earnings and a Powell speech ahead
(cnbc.com)
India's
Adani shares see extended sell-off as credit warnings kick in
February
6, 202 35:31 AM GMT
BENGALURU, Feb 6
(Reuters) - The sell-off in India's Adani Group's seven listed companies, where
more than $110 billion in market value has already evaporated, continued on
Monday as a U.S. short-seller's report critical of the group's finances now led
to credit warnings.
Ratings
agency Moody's warned on Friday that the group may
struggle to raise capital and S&P cut its outlook on two group companies,
the latest fallout of Hindenburg Research's Jan. 24 report that questioned the
conglomerate's debt levels and use of tax havens.
Shares of Adani
Enterprises Ltd (ADEL.NS) sank 9.6% on Monday, taking the
group's flagship company's losses to nearly $28 billion since the report.
Adani
Transmission Ltd (ADAI.NS) dropped 10%, while Adani Green
Energy Ltd (ADNA.NS), Adani Total Gas Ltd (ADAG.NS), Adani Power (ADAN.NS), and Adani Wilmar (ADAW.NS) fell roughly 5%.
Adani
Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSE.NS) was the only stock in green,
with a 1.2% rise.
India's market regulator
moved to calm investor concerns on Saturday, saying that
its financial markets remain stable and continue to function in a transparent
and efficient manner, despite recent dramatic stock falls in Adani Group
companies.
India's Adani shares see extended sell-off as credit warnings kick in | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
U.S. credit card
debt jumps 18.5% and hits a record $930.6 billion
PUBLISHED FRI, FEB 3 2023 9:45 AM
EST UPDATED FRI, FEB 3 2023 11:08 AM EST
For most Americans, inflation and rising interest
rates are a one-two punch.
On the heels of another rate hike this
week by the Federal Reserve,
credit card annual percentage rates are already near 20%, on average, and
set to climb even higher. At the same time, more consumers are leaning on
credit to afford increasingly expensive necessities, like food and rent.
That helped propel total credit card debt to a
record $930.6 billion at the end of 2022, a 18.5% spike from a year earlier,
according to the latest quarterly report by TransUnion.
The average balance
rose to $5,805 over that same period, TransUnion found.
At nearly 20%, if you
made minimum payments toward this average credit card balance, it would take
you more than 17 years to pay off the debt and cost you more than $8,213 in
interest, Bankrate calculated.
“Whether it’s
shopping for a new car or buying eggs in the grocery store, consumers continue
to be impacted in ways big and small by both high inflation and the interest
rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve,” said Michele Raneri, vice
president of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion.
Overall, an
additional 202 million new credit accounts were opened in the fourth quarter,
led by originations among Generation Z, or adults ages 18 to 25, and the tally
of total credit cards hit a record 518.4 million.
As the number of credit card accounts in the U.S.
rises, more new customers are subprime borrowers, generally meaning those
with a credit score of
600 or below, according to TransUnion, in part because of the flood of younger
borrowers gaining access to credit cards.
But at the same time, delinquencies rose as
lenders expand access to less-experienced credit users, the report found.
TransUnion defines a delinquency as a payment that’s 60 days or more overdue.
“The increase in delinquencies is something to
watch,” Raneri said. As long as unemployment stays down, households are better
able to pay their bills, she noted. “If unemployment goes up, and we see a
spike in delinquencies, then that indicates a longer-term problem.”
More
U.S. credit card debt jumps 18.5% and hits a record $930.6 billion (cnbc.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Coronavirus:
lessons to be learned, John Lee says of Hong Kong Covid policy ahead of full
border reopening with mainland China from Monday
·
PCR
tests dropped for cross-border travellers with no history to overseas places in
past week
Published: 9:53am, 3
Feb, 2023
Key
points:
- Full
border reopening between mainland China and Hong Kong to resume from
Monday
- No
more quotas and pre-departure Covid-19 test for travellers; no booking is
required to cross the border
- All
border crossing points, including Lo Wu, Heung Yuen Wai-Liantang and Lok
Ma Chau, will reopen
- Pre-departure
rapid antigen tests (RAT) for travellers from Macau to Hong Kong will be
dropped
- Vaccination
requirements for overseas arrivals will be lifted
- RAT
pre-departure tests for travellers from overseas and Taiwan will remain
for now to manage risks
- Gradual
resumption of travel for cross-border students from next Wednesday,
starting with secondary school pupils and later for primary level,
kindergartens and special schools
- Vaccination
will still be the top priority, and regular jabs will be needed in the
future
Mainland China will fully reopen its borders with Hong Kong and Macau
from Monday with all Covid-19 restrictions dropped and no quotas imposed on
arrivals from either side, state and city officials have announced.
The State Council’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office on Friday said in
a statement that people entering the mainland from the two special
administrative regions, and with no overseas travel history in the week before
departure, would no longer be required to undergo a polymerase chain reaction
(PCR) test to cross the border.
Those who have been overseas in the past week will still need a PCR test
done 48 hours before departure from Hong Kong or Macau to the mainland.
More
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Australian battery group selected as preferred bidder for
Britishvolt
Recharge
Industries beats three rival offers in race to buy UK start-up out of
bankruptcy
3 February 2023
Australian
battery group Recharge Industries has been selected by EY as the preferred
bidder to buy Britishvolt out of administration, beating three other offers
that were submitted earlier this week, according to two people with direct
knowledge of the decision.
Administrators
at EY informed the company of its status on Friday evening and intend to carry
on working on the bid over the weekend, the people added. “A clear bidder has
emerged, subject to them showing to all parties they have proof of finance,”
said one person directly involved in the process.
EY aims to sign a contract by Monday, with the
aim of receiving the funds early next week, the person added.
Britishvolt
collapsed two weeks ago after the battery start-up ran out of cash, forcing it
to lay off almost all of its 200 remaining staff. It had hopes of building a
£3.8bn battery factory in Blyth, Northumberland.
While
its failure dashed UK hopes of creating a homegrown start-up, covenants on its
factory site mean that a battery facility may well be erected there in the
future. The company’s prototype battery technology, if sold to a new buyer by
Recharge, also has the potential to be commercialised.
Over the past fortnight, more than 50
interested buyers were whittled down to four companies that submitted bids on
Wednesday.
If the deal closes, the Australian group will have seen off rival bids from a
group of Britishvolt investors and one from private equity group Greybull
Capital. A fourth bid was tabled by the Saudi British Bank, a retail bank
partly backed by HSBC, according to two people.
EY
and Recharge did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Recharge was launched in 2021 by Scale
Facilitation, a New York-based investment vehicle that has backed a handful of
start-ups in the medical technology and green energy sectors. The company is
also planning to build a battery plant in the Australian city of Geelong.
Katch Fund Solutions, a creditor to Britishvolt, will be repaid the near £10mn
of debt it is owed that was secured against the land, according to a person
familiar with the matter. The remaining amount paid above that level will go to
EY in administrator fees and to repay other creditors, many of whom will
receive little to nothing.
Australian battery
group selected as preferred bidder for Britishvolt | Financial Times (ft.com)
The man who is a pessimist before forty-eight knows too much; if
he is an optimist after it, he knows too little.
Mark Twain.
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