Saturday, 18 February 2023

Special Update18/02/2023 This Time It’s Different! 1 Year War.

 Baltic Dry Index. 538 +08      Brent Crude 83.00

Spot Gold 1842       U S 2 Year Yield 4.60 -0.02

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 18/02/23 World 678,523,477

Deaths 6,790,234

“It cannot be too clearly understood that this is NOT a free country, and it will be an evil day for the legal profession when it is. The citizens of London must realize that there is almost nothing they are allowed to do. Prima facie all actions are illegal, if not by Act of Parliament, by Order in Council; and if not by Order in Council, by Departmental or Police regulation, or By-laws. They may not eat where they like, drive where they like, sing where they like, or sleep where they like.
"Is It a Free Country?”

A.P. Herbert, Uncommon Law: Being 66 Misleading Cases Revised and Collected in One Volume

In the stock casinos, hope that “this time it’s different.” 

That rising interest rates, the inverted US yield curve, the crude oil price and the US Conference Board are all wrong about a stock price crushing US recession ahead.

That this time it’s different in 2023 and that US stocks will soar onwards and upwards as the central banksters get forced into a massive interest rate U-turn.

Well maybe, but that’s not the way to bet.

While the USA heads off to celebrate Presidents Day on Monday, much of the world is getting ready to celebrate Carnival and Ash Wednesday and the start of Lent leading up to Easter.

Sadly, Ukraine and Russia are getting ready for the one-year anniversary of their deadly unnecessary war.

Dow closes more than 100 points higher on Friday, but notches third straight week of losses on rate fears: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, FEB 17 2023 5:28 PM  EST

U.S. stocks were mixed on Friday as stubbornly high inflation and a rebound in rates continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 129.84 points, or 0.39% to end at 33,826.69. The 30-stock index rallied from lows of the day boosted by shares of Amgen and United Health, which gained 2.69% and 2.41% respectively.

The S&P 500 shed 0.28% to end the day at 4,079.09, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.58% to close at 11,787.27. Energy was the biggest laggard. Devon Energy dropped 4.29%, dragging down the S&P 500.

Yields on the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds hit levels not seen since November, weighing on equities early in the session.

Stocks are mixed on the week. The Dow ended down 0.13% for the week, its third negative week in a row — a first since September. The S&P 500 has shed 0.28% for the weekits second negative week in a row. The Nasdaq rose 0.59% on the week.

Investors continue to worry about how the economy and equities will hold up as the Federal Reserve hikes rates to tame stubbornly high inflation. In a Friday speech, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said there’s a long way to go before the central bank reaches its target of 2% inflation.

---- The moves came after major averages shed more than 1% on Thursday, after the Labor Department said the producer price index — an inflation metric that tracks wholesale prices — rose 0.7% last month. That was more than economists expected.

Next week, investors will continue to watch earnings season for signs of consumer strength or weakness. Home DepotWalmart and Etsy are scheduled to report results next week.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

The Conference Board expects a U.S. recession in 2023

By Daniel J. Graeber  FEB. 17, 2023 / 1:14 PM

Feb. 17 (UPI) -- A leading index on the trajectory of the U.S. economy is pointing toward a recession, with expectations of lackluster consumer spending going forward, The Conference Board said Friday.

The board's Leading Economic Index declined by 0.3% in January, following an 0.8% contraction in December. Between July and January, the index is down 3.6%, compared with a 2.4% decline from January 2022 to July.

Ataman Ozyildirim, a senior director of economics at The Conference Board, said there was a decline in new orders from the manufacturing sector, consumer sentiment was souring and business conditions were deteriorating.

"While the LEI continues to signal recession in the near term, indicators related to the labor market -- including employment and personal income -- remain robust so far," he said. "Nonetheless, The Conference Board still expects high inflation, rising interest rates and contracting consumer spending to tip the U.S. economy into recession in 2023."

Consumer-level inflation is showing little sign of slowing down. Prices between December and January increased by 0.5% and annual inflation is at 6.4%, a downtick of just 0.1% from the previous month-on-month reading.

U.S. wholesale prices increased by 0.7% in January, the largest gain since early last year. The increase in the Producer Price Index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, followed a 0.3% rise in November and a 0.2% contraction in December.

Loretta Mester, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said Thursday that aggressive rate hikes last year have managed to lower consumer-level inflation, but there's more work to do.

At this point, she said, there's a "compelling case" to increase the Fed's benchmark rate by another 50 basis points, twice as high as its first rate hike of the year, but less aggressive than the 75 basis point increases that dominated 2022.

More

The Conference Board expects a U.S. recession in 2023 - UPI.com

Finally, in cryptoland, bad news for those politicians and celebrities bought by FTX. The payback has started, but who’s next? That February 28th payback deadline gets closer with each passing day.

Former NBA player to pay $1.4 million to settle SEC crypto fraud charge

FEB. 17, 2023 / 1:46 PM / UPDATED FEB. 17, 2023 AT 2:32 PM

Feb. 17 (UPI) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Friday charged former NBA player Paul Pierce for touting EMAX cryptocurrency tokens without disclosing he was paid to do it. The SEC also said he made false and misleading statements about cryptocurrency.

According to the SEC, Pierce failed to disclose he was paid $244,000 in EMAX tokens to promote them on Twitter. Pierce agreed to settle the charges and pay $1.409 million in penalties, disgorgement and interest.

"This case is yet another reminder to celebrities: The law requires you to disclose to the public from whom and how much you are getting paid to promote investment in securities, and you can't lie to investors when you tout a security," said SEC Chair Gary Gensler in a statement. "When celebrities endorse investment opportunities, including crypto asset securities, investors should be careful to research if the investments are right for them, and they should know why celebrities are making those endorsements."

More

Former NBA player Paul Pierce to pay $1.4M to settle SEC crypto fraud charge - UPI.com

Sam Bankman-Fried's $250 million bail bond is a 'joke' and prosecutors have been too 'lenient' with the FTX founder, securities lawyer says

Fri, 17 February 2023 at 5:18 pm GMT

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's bail conditions and the $250 million bond for his release are "ludicrous," according to a long-time securities lawyer.

Bankman-Fried was released on a $250 million bail bond in late December, which was cosigned by his parents, who pledged their home in Palo Alto as collateral. This week, it was learned that there were two other guarantors as well, Stanford University's Andreas Paepcke and Larry Kramer, a former dean at the university's law school.

"The original bond is a joke," James Murphy, a cofounder of law firm Murphy & McGonigle PC, told CoinDesk TV. "Prosecutors wanted to look tough and wanted to be able to say, 'This is the largest bond anybody's ever seen.'"

Murphy says there was no real money used for Bankman-Fried's bond, but a promise not to flee the country. Kramer and Paepcke would only have to "write a check" if Bankman-Fried decides to skip town.

"Normally you've got to put up property assets to back the bond or go to a bail bondsman and give them 10% to 15% of the face amount of the bond...None of that happened," Murphy said.

Bankman-Fried's bail conditions tightened earlier this month after he sent a text to a former top FTX executive, which an overseeing judge described as a "material threat of inappropriate contact with prospective witnesses."

After this, Bankman-Fried was also using a virtual private network (VPN) to access the internet. Prosecutors expressed concern that he was using it to trade crypto, which is in violation of his bail terms. Attorneys for Bankman-Fried say their client was only using a VPN to watching football.

"I cannot explain it, based on my 30 years of doing this. I've never seen anything this lenient in a situation where someone has millions of victims," Murphy said. "I don't know why [prosecutors] continue to be lenient, as he's kind of pushing the envelope in terms of what he can do."

Federal prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried helped orchestrate "one of the biggest financial frauds in American history." He is facing eight criminal charges, including conspiracy to misappropriate FTX customer funds.

Sam Bankman-Fried's $250 million bail bond is a 'joke' and prosecutors have been too 'lenient' with the FTX founder, securities lawyer says (yahoo.com)

Third high-level FTX executive nears plea deal with US prosecutors

Nishad Singh was a close associate of Sam Bankman-Fried, who founded the now-bankrupt crypto exchange

February 17 2023

Third high-level FTX executive nears plea deal with US prosecutors | Financial Times

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Goldman Sachs now expects three more Fed rate hikes in 2023

Feb 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said it was expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three more times this year by a quarter of a percentage point each, after data this week pointed to persistent inflation and resilience in the labor market.

Producer prices accelerated in January by the biggest margin in seven months, according to data on Thursday, while a Labor Department report showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week.

"In light of the stronger growth and firmer inflation news, we are adding a 25bp (basis points) rate hike in June to our Fed forecast, for a peak funds rate of 5.25-5.5%," economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a note dated Thursday.

Meanwhile, money markets are currently pricing in a terminal rate of 5.3% by July.

After the recent U.S. data, European investment bank UBS said it was expecting the central bank to raise rates by 25 bps at its March and May meetings, which may leave the fed funds rate at the 5-5.25% range.

"After that, we expect the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to turn around and begin to cut interest rates at the September FOMC meeting," UBS wrote in a client note.

J.P.Morgan had, before the recent U.S. data, forecast the terminal rate at 5.1% by the end of June, while BofA Global Research had forecast it in the range of 5-5.25% by the end of the year.

BofA had also pencilled in two rate hikes of 25 bps each earlier.

majority of economists polled by Reuters before the latest data said they expected the Fed to raise rates at least twice more in coming months, with the risk they go higher still, although none of them are expecting a rate cut this year.

Goldman Sachs now expects three more Fed rate hikes in 2023 | Reuters

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Vaccine data from Florida. Approx. 15 minutes.

Data from Florida

Data from Florida - YouTube

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Smooth sailing for electrons in graphene: Measuring fluid-like flow at nanometer resolution

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Physicists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison have directly measured the fluid-like flow of electrons in graphene at nanometer resolution for the first time. The results appear in the journal Science today.

 

Graphene, an atom-thick sheet of carbon arranged in a honeycomb pattern, is an especially pure electrical conductor, making it an ideal material to study electron flow with very low resistance. Here, researchers intentionally add impurities at known distances, and find that electron flow changes from gas-like to fluid-like as the temperature rises.

"All conductive materials contain impurities and imperfections that block electron flow, which causes resistance. Historically, people have taken a low-resolution approach to identifying where resistance comes from," says Zach Krebs, a physics graduate student at UW-Madison and co-lead author of the study. "In this study, we image how charge flows around an impurity and actually see how that impurity blocks current and causes resistance, which is something that hasn't been done before to distinguish gas-like and fluid-like electron flow."

The results have applications in developing new, low-resistance materials, where electrical transport would be more efficient.

More

Smooth sailing for electrons in graphene: Measuring fluid-like flow at nanometer resolution (phys.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Time for another Heinichen. Approx. 3 minutes.

Heinichen: III. Un poco Allegro

Heinichen: III. Un poco Allegro - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 15 minutes.

Magnus Escapes the Impossible!

Magnus Escapes the Impossible! - YouTube

No Math’s update this weekend.   Today an obscure part of British history.  Approx. 19 minutes.

The Ashanti War 1873 & Wolseley's Ashanti Ring

The Ashanti War 1873 & Wolseley's Ashanti Ring - YouTube

“And least of all may they do unusual actions 'for fun'. People must not do things for fun. We are not here for fun. There is no reference to fun in any Act of Parliament. If anything is said in this Court to encourage a belief that Englishmen are entitled to jump off bridges for their own amusement the next thing to go will be the Constitution. For these reasons, therefore, I have come to the conclusion that this appeal must fail. It is not for me to say what offence the appellant has committed, but I am satisfied that he has committed SOME offence, for which he has been most properly punished.
" Is It a Free Country?”

 A.P. Herbert, Uncommon Law: Being 66 Misleading Cases Revised and Collected in One Volume

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