Saturday, 11 February 2023

Special Update11/02/2023 A Terrible Week. Magic Magic Squares.

 Baltic Dry Index. 602 +10      Brent Crude 86.39

Spot Gold 1866        U S 2 Year Yield 4.50 +0.02

Covid-19 cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Covid-19 cases 11/02/23 World 677,305,438

Deaths 6,780,753

 “If you don’t know where you are going, every road will get you nowhere.”

Henry Kissinger

In the stock casinos, a bad week.  In the real world, a terrible week.

Dow closes nearly 170 points higher, S&P 500 and Nasdaq post worst week since December: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, FEB 10 2023 5:06 PM EST

The S&P 500 eked out a narrow gain in Friday’s session but still had the worst week in nearly two months.

The broad index was up just 0.2% to end the session at 4,090.46. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.61% to close at 11,718.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 169.39 points, or 0.5%, to end at 33,869.27.

Despite the Dow’s Friday gain, it still ended the week down 0.17%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 1.11% and 2.41%, respectively, in what was their worst week since December.

Investors digested the most recent interest rate hike, economic data and recent commentary from Federal Reserve speakers, said Shana Sissel, founder of Banríon Capital Management. That caused intraday moves, she said, as investors changed positions while predicting how the central bank will act on interest rates going forward.

“There’s some mixed signals here, which I think is why volatility is up,” Sissel said. “There’s not really a consensus coming out with leading indicators that give you a lot of confidence of what’s coming next. And the markets hate that.”

Ride-hailing platform Lyft tanked more than 36% after a disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter report. Expedia also saw its shares fall by more than 8% after its earnings and revenue fell below analysts’ expectations.

Those are the latest reports in what has been considered an underwhelming quarter by Wall Street. With nearly 70% S&P 500 companies reporting, around 70% of those companies beat analyst expectations for the quarter. That’s a smaller share of companies surpassing expectations than the three-year historical average of 79%, according to The Earnings Scout.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

European markets close lower as investors assess monetary policy outlook; Stoxx 600 down 1%

UPDATED FRI, FEB 10 2023 11:57 AM EST

European markets closed lower Friday as investors assess the economic outlook and the potential for further monetary policy tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index finished trading down 1%. Most sectors and major bourses closed in the red, with travel and leisure stocks leading losses, down by 3.8%. Oil and gas stocks bucked the trend with a 2.3% uptick, while telecoms stocks were 0.2% higher.

The index closed higher on Thursday with the economic outlook and corporate earnings high on the agenda.

U.K. preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures on Friday morning showed that the economy flatlined in the fourth quarter to narrowly avoid recession, in line with consensus forecasts. The Bank of England last week projected that the country would enter a shallow but lengthy recession in the first quarter of 2023.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this week that although U.S. inflation is easing, rates could still rise, while several Fed speakers reiterated that the hiking cycle could have further to run.

European markets open to close, earnings, data and news (cnbc.com)

In other news, a terrible week.

Turkey and Syria face threat of ‘secondary disaster’ after earthquakes, even as dramatic rescues offer moments of relief

PUBLISHED FRI, FEB 10 2023 5:51 AM EST

Fears of a “secondary disaster” were momentarily eclipsed Friday by a flurry of dramatic rescues that saw survivors pulled from the rubble four days after earthquakes devastated Turkey and Syriakilling more than 23,300 people.

Emergency services, volunteers and families have toiled despite diminishing hope for those still trapped in subzero temperatures. Streets have grown heavy with bodies wrapped in blankets, while residents have huddled over fires as the destruction forced makeshift morgues for the dead and shelters for the living.

The government and aid groups have distributed millions of hot meals, as well as tents and blankets, but help was still struggling to reach many people in need — driving anger in southern Turkey and in northern Syria, where civil war has only compounded the difficulties.

---- Despite the moments of joy on the ground, the death toll continued to rise and the focus was also turning to fears of a ‘secondary disaster’ for those still lacking warm shelter, food and water across the border region, which is home to more than 13.5 million people.

The World Health Organization said that survivors desperately needed vital support providing basic necessities such as clean water and shelter in worsening weather conditions.

“We are in real danger of seeing a secondary disaster which may cause harm to more people than the initial disaster, if we don’t move with the same intention and intensity as we are doing on the search and rescue side,” said WHO incident manager for the earthquake, Rob Holden at a WHO news conference Wednesday.

The need is especially dire in rebel-held areas of northwest Syria, grappling with 12 years of civil war and now a border crossing made nearly inaccessible for international aid after the earthquake damaged roads.

The U.S is pushing for more safe passages for U.N. humanitarian supplies across the Turkish border into the region.

Photos taken Tuesday by Maxar Technologies, a U.S. defense contractor headquartered in Colorado, show the scale of infrastructure damage in places like Nurdagi, Turkey.

A bird’s-eye view before and after the temblors shows silos that burst open after the earthquake, blanketing the ground with grain.

In a statement issued Friday, the United Nations World Food Programme said it had delivered urgently needed food assistance, primarily hot meals, food packages, and ready-to-eat food rations, to around 115,000 people in Syria and Turkey in the first four days since the earthquakes struck the region.

“For the thousands of people affected by the earthquakes, food is one of the top needs right now and our priority is to get it to the people who need it fast,” said WFP Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa Corinne Fleischer.

Death toll rises, rescues dwindle in Turkey-Syria earthquake aftermath (cnbc.com)

Children rescued from ruins days after earthquake, but death toll tops 23,700

ANTAKYA, Turkey/JANDARIS, Syria, Feb 10, (Reuters) - Rescue crews saved a 10-day-old baby and his mother trapped in the ruins of a building in Turkey on Friday and dug several people out from other sites as President Tayyip Erdogan said authorities should have reacted faster to this week's huge earthquake.

The confirmed death toll from the deadliest quake in the region in two decades stood at more than 23,700 across southern Turkey and northwest Syria four days after it hit.

Hundreds of thousands more people have been left homeless and short of food in bleak winter conditions and leaders in both countries have faced questions about their response.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad made his first reported trip to affected areas since the quake, visiting a hospital in Aleppo with his wife Asma, state media reported.

His government also approved humanitarian aid deliveries across the frontlines of the country's 12-year civil war, a move that could speed up the arrival of help for millions of desperate people. The World Food Programme said earlier it was running out of stocks in rebel-held northwest Syria as the state of war complicated relief efforts.

 

The earthquake, which struck in the early hours of Monday, ranks as the seventh most deadly natural disaster this century, ahead of Japan's 2011 tremor and tsunami and approaching the 31,000 killed by a quake in neighbouring Iran in 2003.

More

Children rescued from ruins days after earthquake, but death toll tops 23,700 | Reuters

No Deal As IMF Leaves Crisis-hit Pakistan

By AFP News  02/10/23 AT 5:36 AM EST

An IMF team left Pakistan on Friday after crisis talks with the government failed to deliver a deal on financial aid that would help the South Asian country avert economic collapse.

After months of deadlock, the International Monetary Fund delegation arrived last week for last-ditch negotiations with a government fearing the political consequences of enforcing bailout conditions in an election year.

Pakistan's economy is in dire straits, stricken by a balance-of-payments crisis as it attempts to service high levels of external debt amid political chaos and deteriorating security.

Inflation has rocketed, the rupee has plummeted and the country can no longer afford imports, causing a severe decline in industry.

"Considerable progress was made during the mission on policy measures to address domestic and external imbalances," the IMF said in a statement.

"Virtual discussions will continue in the coming days to finalise the implementation details of these policies."

The IMF is demanding that the nuclear-armed nation boost its pitifully low tax base, end tax exemptions for the export sector, and raise artificially low petrol, electricity and gas prices meant to help low-income families.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif previously called the conditions for the $1.2 billion loan instalment "beyond imagination".

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar addressed the nation after the IMF team left the country on Friday morning, saying talks had "concluded successfully" and that a draft memorandum on broadly agreed policies had been shared by the lender with the government.

He said petrol prices would rise by roughly four percent and additional taxes would be imposed, without giving further details.

Economic analyst Abid Hasan, a former adviser to the World Bank, said "there will be disappointment in the business community".

"The only way stability can be achieved is through a deal. This has heightened the uncertainty," he told AFP in the capital Islamabad.

Years of financial mismanagement and political instability have damaged Pakistan's economy -- exacerbated by a global energy crisis and devastating floods that submerged a third of the country.

After months of holding out in search of alternatives, the government began to bow to IMF pressure in mid-January, loosening controls on the rupee to rein in a rampant black market in US dollars -- a step that caused the currency to plunge to a record low. Authorities also hiked petrol prices by 16 percent.

----On Thursday, the central bank released data saying its foreign exchange reserves had plunged by $170 million in a week, standing at just $2.9 billion as of last Friday.

Since January, the world's fifth most populous nation is no longer issuing letters of credit, except for essential food and medicine, causing a backlog of raw material imports the country can no longer afford.

The logjam coupled with the rupee devaluation has sparked a major decline in manufacturing, including textiles and steel, and building projects.

"This situation has triggered fears the construction industry will close down very soon, plunging thousands of labourers into unemployment," Syed Ashfaq Hussain, head of the Constructors Association of Pakistan, told AFP.

More

No Deal As IMF Leaves Crisis-hit Pakistan (ibtimes.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

U.S. recession still likely despite resilient economic data: PIMCO
Last Updated: Feb 08, 2023, 10:29 PM IST

U.S. bond manager Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is sticking to its previous forecast that the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession, despite recent data indicating economic resilience.

An employment report last week showed U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in January while the unemployment rate hit a more than 53-1/2-year low of 3.4%, pointing to a tight labor market that could be a headache for the Federal Reserve in its battle against inflation.

Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO North American economist, said the strong economic data suggests a recession may come later than previously expected, but remains likely.

"Recent data on net haven't caused us to change our outlook for a mild U.S. recession - we're only pushing the timing back a little bit," she said in a note.

PIMCO, which manages $1.7 trillion in assets, said last month it would focus on high-quality bonds this year due to their higher returns and the protection they offer should the global economy economic downturn be deeper than anticipated.

Some investors believe signs of strength in the labor market make a recession less likely and increase the chances of a soft landing, in which the Fed tames inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. Goldman Sachs now sees a 25% probability of the United States entering a recession in the next 12 months, down from a previous 35% forecast.

Markets have rallied over the past few months on the back of moderating inflation. In January, U.S. Treasury yields - a benchmark for borrowing costs on assets ranging from mortgages to corporate loans - declined by about 30 basis points.

That rally, however, stumbled last week as the jobs data raised the prospect of more interest rate hikes by the Fed.

"Although market-based measures of financial conditions have eased somewhat recently, financial conditions are still tight by historical standards," Wilding said.

"We think it's underappreciated how much tightening pressure the overnight rate actually puts on the economy."

US Economy: U.S. recession still likely despite resilient economic data: PIMCO - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com)

UK narrowly avoided recession last year, official figures show

10 February 2023

Britain’s flatlining economy narrowly avoided sliding into recession by the smallest of margins at the end of last year, official figures revealed on Friday.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output in December fell 0.5 per cent.

That means the economy was flat over the fourth quarter and did not quite meet the technical definition of a recession - two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The economy shrank 0.3 per in the third quarter from July to September.

The overall figure for December was dragged down by a 0.8 fall in the dominant services sector which was hit by a range of one-off factors. These included the impact of strikes, fewer visits to doctors and hospitals after the pandemic and the lack of Premier League football matches during the World Cup.

Annual GDP is estimated to have grown by 4.1 per cent in 2022, following growth of 7.4 per cent in 2021

UK narrowly avoided recession last year, official figures show | Evening Standard

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Messenger RNA Sequences Found in Blood 28 Days After COVID-19 Vaccination

Feb 9 2023

Messenger RNA sequences from the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines were found in the blood of multiple individuals weeks after vaccination, according to a new study.

Researchers in Denmark analyzed samples from the vaccinated and detected partial or even full sequences of the messenger RNA (mRNA) following vaccination. The sequences were found as late as 28 days after vaccination, or the longest time period the study analyzed.

The findings mean that the mRNA, which is situated in lipid nanoparticles for deliverance into the body, lingers for much longer than authorities in the United States and elsewhere acknowledge.

 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for instance, has claimed that the mRNA is broken down “within a few days.” The Infectious Diseases Society of America says the mRNA “is quickly metabolized and eliminated via cellular processing mechanisms.”

 

Henrik Westh, a professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Copenhagen, and co-authors of the new study described being surprised by the findings.

 

“We surprisingly found fragments of COVID-19 vaccine mRNA up to 28 days postvaccination in blood from chronic HCV patients vaccinated with mRNA vaccines from both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna,” they wrote.

 

The study featured taking samples from 108 vaccinated people with chronic hepatitis C virus, or HCV, and examining them for up to 28 days after vaccination.

Ten of the samples, or 9.3 percent, had partial or full sequences of the mRNA sequence.

The vaccines deliver mRNA inside lipid nanoparticles.

 

The researchers said that the detected mRNA was likely still inside the nanoparticles, which “have been slowly released from the injection site either directly to the blood or through the lymph system.” Without the nanoparticles, the mRNA “would rapidly degrade.”

 

They claimed that the new data “does not in any way change the conclusion that both mRNA vaccines are safe and effective.”

 

That conclusion shows bias and it overlooks how pseudouridine, which is used to modify the RNA in the vaccines, “alters the stability of RNA considerably,” Dr. Robert Malone told The Epoch Times. Documents leaked in 2022 showed European regulators expressed concern about truncated and modified RNA in the vaccines.

More

Messenger RNA Sequences Found in Blood 28 Days After COVID-19 Vaccination (theepochtimes.com)

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccineshttps://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Vestas looks to recycle turbine blades headed for landfill

February 09, 2023

When a wind turbine reaches the end of its working life, components like towers and nacelles can be recycled but blades often end up in landfill. Vestas is looking to commercialize a new chemical process that can break down all epoxy-based turbine blades for reuse.

Harvesting wind is already proving to be an important part of the renewable energy mix, with more projects coming online and larger turbines being produced. Unfortunately, when turbine blades come to the end of their operational lives, they end up as waste in landfill. And this is a big problem, with WindEurope estimating that around 25,000 tonnes of turbine blades will be retired annually from 2025, which could increase to 52,000 tonnes by 2030.

We've seen scientists and energy companies come up with new recipes to help make spent turbines recyclable, but the new solution from the CETEC coalition - set up in 2021 by Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the Olin Corporation, the Danish Technological Institute and Aarhus University – could negate the need for blade redesign and reuse all end-of-life epoxy-based turbines currently in use or already in landfill.

"Until now, the wind industry has believed that turbine blade material calls for a new approach to design and manufacture to be either recyclable, or beyond this, circular, at end of life," said Lisa Ekstrand, VP and Head of Sustainability at Vestas. "Going forward, we can now view old epoxy-based blades as a source of raw material. Once this new technology is implemented at scale, legacy blade material currently sitting in landfill, as well as blade material in active windfarms, can be disassembled, and re-used."

The advance hinges on the development of a new chemical process from the Troels Skrydstrup Group at Aarhus University, other CETEC members and project partners. Using widely available chemicals, this process is able to break down epoxy resin and recover it as virgin-grade raw material for use in the manufacture of new turbines or other products.

Having now established a value chain with Stena Recycling and Olin, Vestas will now scale up and commercialize the process.

Source: Vestas

Vestas looks to recycle turbine blades headed for landfill (newatlas.com)

This weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 10 minutes.

Johann Christoph Schultze (1733-1813) - Concerto in G major

Johann Christoph Schultze (1733-1813) - Concerto in G major - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.

Hikaru Refutes The Scotch!

Hikaru Refutes The Scotch! - YouTube

This weekend’s  Math’s update. Magic Squares. Approx. 30 minutes.

New magic in magic squares

New magic in magic squares - YouTube

 “Military men are just dumb, stupid animals to be used as pawns in foreign policy.”

Henry Kissinger.

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