Friday 24 February 2023

No Recession In Sight!

 Baltic Dry Index. 816 +142                Brent Crude 82.88

Spot Gold 1826                      US 2 Year Yield 4.66  Unch.

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 24/02/23 World 679,323,793

Deaths 6,796,016

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

In the casinos, no one really expects the Fed to cause a recession. Ignore what they say, watch what (little) they do.

Well maybe.

Asia markets trade mixed, Bank of Japan nominee Ueda speaks; Japan’s inflation reaches 41-year high

UPDATED THU, FEB 23 2023 10:46 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday as the nominee to lead the Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda spoke at a confirmation hearing.

The Nikkei 225 rose 1.09%, and the Topix climbed 0.57%. Japan’s core inflation in January rose 4.2%, the highest since 1981.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.32%. South Korea’s Kospi fell fractionally, while the Kosdaq was down 0.35%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index traded 1.62% down, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.24%. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component fell 0.84% and the Shanghai Composite was 0.63% lower.

In earnings, OCBC was among the three major Singapore banks that posted a record profit for 2022 alongside DBS and UOB. Singapore’s January manufacturing output figures are expected to rise at 2.9% compared to a year ago.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks closed higher amid volatile trading Thursday as investors remained concerned about the path of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes.

Asia markets, U.S. rate hikes, Wall St equities, Bank of Japan chief, Australia, Hong Kong (cnbc.com)

 

Jamie Dimon says the Federal Reserve has ‘lost a little bit of control of inflation’

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Thursday that containing inflation remains a work in progress for the Federal Reserve, while noting the U.S. economy continues to show signs of strength.

“I have all the respect for [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell, but the fact is we lost a little bit of control of inflation,” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer during the “Halftime Report.” It’s the first of a two-part interview with Cramer, with the second installment airing later Thursday on “Mad Money.”

Dimon’s comments came one day after the Fed released the minutes from its Jan. 31-Feb.1 meeting, which showed members remain resolved to fight persistent inflation.

“Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path,” the minutes said.

Dimon himself said he expects that interest rates could “possibly” remain higher for longer, as it may take the central bank “a while” to get to its goal of 2% inflation.

Even so, the JPMorgan CEO said he’s not currently breaking out the recession playbook, as he is encouraged by the strength of the U.S. economy.

“The U.S. economy right now is doing quite well. Consumers have a lot of money. They’re spending it. Jobs are plentiful,” Dimon said. “That’s today. Out in front of us, there’s some scary stuff. You and I know there’s always uncertainty. That’s a normal thing.”

Those comments contrast with Dimon’s previous remarks in October. At that time, he said the U.S. economy will likely fall into a recession in six to nine months. In December, he said higher inflation was eroding consumer wealth, which would lead into a recession this year.

The Fed declined to comment on the story.

Jamie Dimon on Fed: It has 'lost a little bit of control of inflation' (cnbc.com)

Finally, in crypto news, the sky is starting to fall in.

 

New York sues CoinEx, says crypto exchange failed to register with state

NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - CoinEx was sued on Wednesday by New York Attorney General Letitia James, who accused the cryptocurrency exchange of transacting business illegally because it did not register with the state.

In papers filed with a New York state court in Manhattan, James accused CoinEx of having "engaged in repeated and persistent fraudulent practices."

She said CoinEx's failure to register as a commodity broker-dealer, securities broker or securities dealer before buying and selling tokens violated the Martin Act, a powerful state law used to fight financial fraud.

James also said CoinEx held itself out without state permission as a global cryptocurrency "exchange," and failed last month to comply with her subpoena for testimony about its digital asset trading activities.

"The days of crypto companies like CoinEx acting like the rules do not apply to them are over," James said in a statement.

CoinEx did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The Hong Kong-based company was founded in 2017 and is also known as Vino Global Ltd, according to court papers.

James' civil lawsuit seeks restitution, and a ban on access to CoinEx's mobile app, website and services from New York.

In January, New York and nine other U.S. states secured up to $24 million from the cryptocurrency company Nexo Inc and an affiliate to resolve civil claims they transacted without proper registration and lied about their registration status.

New York sues CoinEx, says crypto exchange failed to register with state | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Euro zone inflation marginally higher in Jan; core also lifted

FRANKFURT, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation was only a touch higher in January than earlier estimated, Eurostat said on Thursday, confirming that price growth is now well past its peak, even if underlying price pressures still show no signs of abating.

Consumer price inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro eased to 8.6% in January from 9.2% a month earlier, coming in just above the 8.5% estimated earlier this month, when figures from Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, were not yet included.

The data are still likely to make for grim reading at the European Central Bank (ECB) as revisions show core inflation, or price growth excluding volatile food and fuel products, accelerating to 5.3% from 5.2%, confounding initial data for a steady pace.

The ECB has raised rates by a combined 3 percentage points since July to tame inflation and policymakers are now getting concerned that what was initially an energy cost-driven surge, is now broadening out to impact all sectors.

---- Services inflation, the biggest chunk of core inflation, was revised up to 4.4% from 4.2%, likely worrying some because services primarily reflect wage growth and employee earnings are now rising at their fastest pace in years, even if real or inflation-adjusted growth is still negative.

More

Euro zone inflation marginally higher in Jan; core also lifted | Reuters

'Stubborn' food inflation leaves U.S. shoppers with slim appetite for other goods

Feb 23 (Reuters) - As American shoppers stomach soaring food prices, they are cutting back on purchases of other goods, such as toys, clothing and housewares, in a challenging trend for retailers.

Commentary this week from executives at Walmart (WMT.N) and other retailers shows how Americans are shifting their shopping habits and hunting for bargains in the face of the highest inflation in a generation.

At Walmart, the world's biggest retailer by revenue, Americans are still spending but are more "choiceful, discerning, thoughtful" about what they buy, its global Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon told analysts.

Higher prices on food led to soft sales of electronics, toys, home and apparel in the most recent quarter at Walmart. McMillon said he believed inflation on dry groceries and items made for immediate consumption would remain high "for a while".

The average cost for food consumed at home climbed 11.3% in January from a year earlier, Labor Department data showed.

That was nearly 5 percentage points above the overall rate of inflation, among the widest gaps since the 1970s. Food cost increases have outstripped broader inflation for nearly a year.

More

'Stubborn' food inflation leaves U.S. shoppers with slim appetite for other goods | Reuters

A quarter of British firms expect to raise prices in March, ONS says

LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The proportion of British businesses expecting to raise prices in March fell marginally, adding to signs that price pressures may have peaked, a survey published on Thursday showed.

The Office for National Statistics said 25% of trading businesses expected to increase the prices of goods or services they sell over the next month.

In January, the ONS said that proportion stood at 26%.

British consumer price inflation slowed to 10.1% in January, cooling from a 41-year high of 11.1% in October.

Nearly half of firms in accommodation and food services intended to hike prices - the highest proportion of all sectors.

Of all the firms surveyed over the last two weeks, 35% cited energy costs as the main reason for increasing prices.

There was also a big increase in overall retail footfall in the week to the end of Feb. 19 to 108% of the level of the previous week, coinciding with school holidays, and 123% of its average level in the same week in 2022.

A quarter of British firms expect to raise prices in March, ONS says | Reuters

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Well, if they say so.

China's COVID-19 epidemic has 'basically' ended, but not completely over

February 23, 2023

BEIJING (Reuters) -Health authorities in China said on Thursday the country's COVID-19 epidemic has "basically" ended, but it is not completely over as it found seven imported cases of the highly-transmissible XBB.1.5 variant since Jan. 8.

Officials, speaking at a news event with several departments attending, said China's "major decisive victory" over COVID has set an example for populous nations in prevention and control.

Last week, China's top leaders declared a "decisive victory" over COVID, claiming the world's lowest fatality rate, although experts questioned data as the virus surged across the country recently after largely being kept at bay for three years.

The country strengthened its healthcare system in anticipation of the virus spreading to rural areas. Officials said at the press briefing on Thursday critical care beds had expanded to 404,000 from 198,000.

Health officials and experts were also monitoring the XBB.1.5 sub-variant of Omicron for months. On Jan. 4, data had showed no new variant was found in the country.

Officials said on Thursday one local case of the variant was linked with an imported case on Feb. 3.

China's COVID-19 epidemic has 'basically' ended, but not completely over (msn.com)

Congress Prepares to Investigate COVID-19 Vaccines

Updated: February 22, 2023

Members of Congress are preparing to probe COVID-19 vaccine development and other issues related to the shots.

The Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic is planning to investigate how possible side effects are being studied, the regulatory process of authorizing and approving the vaccines, and why the vaccines were mandated, members told The Epoch Times.

One goal of the committee is making sure the United States is prepared for future pandemics, “and that includes perfecting our vaccine development,” Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) told The Epoch Times via email. “In order to do so, we must have complete transparency in vaccine research, clinical trials and adverse reactions, and manufacturing.”

“I expect our oversight hearings will shed light on the FDA approval process, the potential for side effects, and ultimately the success rate and safety of the vaccine—each of which will help us to navigate future global health emergencies,” she added.

Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.), another member, said the panel “will be performing a comprehensive review of how the vaccines were developed, approved, and mandated.”

McCormick, a doctor, is concerned about how data on possible side effects has been collected. He also wants to look into how children as young as 6 months old have been encouraged to get a primary series and at least one booster, “given the lack of scientific evidence for a benefit, coupled with real concerns about possible harm for an otherwise immune person.”

More

Congress Prepares to Investigate COVID-19 Vaccines (theepochtimes.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Boosting superconductivity in graphene bilayers

FEBRUARY 22, 2023

Nearly a decade ago, researchers heralded the discovery of a new wonder class of ultrathin materials with special optical and electrical properties that made it a potential rival for graphene, a form of carbon discovered in 2004 whose own special properties interest both scientists and engineers.

 

Now, Caltech engineers have shown that one of these wonder materials, tungsten diselenide, is not just a rival to graphene but also a complement to it. By adding tungsten diselenide to graphene, they have managed to enhance the graphene's electrical properties in ways that enrich our understanding of superconductivity and pave the way for engineering more robust and highly tunable graphene-based superconductors.

To understand what the researchers have accomplished, it is helpful to first know what graphene is and why its properties make it useful.

Graphene is a form of carbon consisting of a single layer of atoms arranged in a honeycomb-like lattice pattern that looks like chicken wire. When two or more of these sheets are stacked on top of each other, the resulting material can exhibit vastly different electronic properties depending on the alignment of those sheets in relation to one another.

For instance, when the second sheet of graphene is "twisted" by just 1.05 degrees (a value known as the "magic angle") in relation to the sheet it is laid on top of, the resulting stack can be either a superconductor that conducts electricity with absolutely no resistance whatsoever or an insulator that completely blocks the passage of electricity. All that is needed to switch between these vastly different states is the application of an external electrical field.

Surprisingly, research conducted in 2022 shows that even untwisted graphene bilayers can exhibit superconductivity.

---- In the new work, which was published in the journal Nature on January 11, Stevan Nadj-Perge, assistant professor of applied physics and materials science, and his colleagues discovered that when tungsten diselenide is placed on top of graphene bilayers, the untwisted graphene's superconductivity is greatly improved. Notably, the superconducting critical temperature—that is, the warmest temperature at which the material can superconduct—is enhanced by a factor of 10. By being in close proximity to graphene, tungsten diselenide bestows the benefits of the "magic angle" twist to the more mass-producible untwisted graphene. This finding provides new insight into the nature of superconductivity and suggests strategies for enhancing superconductivity in other related graphene-based materials.

"These graphene bilayer devices are remarkably tunable," says Nadj-Perge, corresponding author of the new work. "For example, by applying electric fields, we can add or remove electrons from the bilayer as well as push them toward and away from tungsten diselenide. This allowed us to carefully study the enhancement of superconductivity in the system."

More

Boosting superconductivity in graphene bilayers (phy)

Another weekend and the start of year two of Europe’s proxy war on Russia. Poor Ukraine. Have a great weekend everyone.

 “It is not enough to win a war; it is more important to organize the peace.”

Aristotle.

 

 

 

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