Baltic
Dry Index. 563 -53 Brent Crude 84.73
Spot Gold 1846 US 2 Year Yield 4.60 +0.08
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 15/02/23 World 677,904,307
Deaths 6,784,365
“This is why we are now in an endless war, in a confrontation whose outcome must be the collapse of one or the other.”
Emmanuel
Todd, one of France’s leading intellectuals, during an interview with the Le
Figaro newspaper.
French Historian: World War III Has Already Begun | ZeroHedge
In the stock casinos, yesterday’s US inflation figures came in slightly worse than expected but not enough to really disturb the punters.
China’s slow economic rebound, the crashing Baltic Dry [shipping] Index, another warning from the IMF and the first effects from the EUSSR boycott of Russian refined oil products, all spell economic trouble ahead.
But today’s big LIR story lies in the
Covid-19 section. Did the UK medical profession,
the National Health Service, start to euthanise Covid patients early in the
pandemic?
Inflation rose
0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago
Inflation turned higher to start 2023, as rising
shelter, gas and fuel prices took their toll on consumers, the Labor Department
reported Tuesday.
The consumer
price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and
services, rose 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of
0.4% and 6.2%.
Excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI
increased 0.4% monthly and 5.6% from a year ago, against respective estimates
of 0.3% and 5.5%.
----Rising shelter costs accounted for about half the monthly
increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report. The component
accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and
was up 7.9% from a year ago. The CPI had risen 0.1% in December.
Energy also was a significant
contributor, up 2% and 8.7%, respectively, while food costs rose 0.5% and
10.1%, respectively.
Rising prices meant a loss in real
pay for workers. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% for the month and were down
1.8% from a year ago, according to a
separate BLS report that adjusts wages for inflation.
While price increases had been
abating in recent months, January’s data shows inflation is still a force in a
U.S. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year.
That has come despite Federal
Reserve efforts to quell the problem. The central bank has hiked
its benchmark interest rate eight times since March 2022 as
inflation rose to its highest level in 41 years last summer.
----The next big data point will be retail sales,
which hits Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones
expect the figure, which is not adjusted for inflation, will show that sales
rose 1.9% in January from the prior month.
“The strength of core inflation
suggests that the Fed has a lot more work to do to bring inflation back to 2%,”
said Maria Vassalou, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions at
Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “If retail sales also show strength tomorrow, the
Fed may have to increase their funds rate target to 5.5% in order to tame
inflation.”
There’s widespread belief that the
economy could tip into at least a shallow recession later this year or early in
2023. However, the latest tracking data from the Atlanta Fed puts expected GDP
growth at 2.2% for the first quarter, following a relatively strong finish for
2022.
A New York Fed barometer which uses
the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields to estimate the probability of a recession puts the
chances at 57.1% over the next 12 months, the highest level since the early
1980s.
More
Consumer
price index January 2023: (cnbc.com)
Asia markets fall
after U.S. inflation comes in hotter than expected
UPDATED WED, FEB 15 202312:27 AM EST
Asia Pacific markets traded lower on Wednesday
after the release of U.S. inflation data that came in hotter-than-expected. It
further raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to
raise interest rates to curb inflation.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell
1.38%, and the Hang Seng Tech index slid 0.61%. In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component fell
0.34% and the Shanghai
Composite shed 0.26%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell
1.06% to close at 7352.2, as financials saw sharp losses after Reserve Bank of
Australia’s governor Philip Lowe reiterated that inflation remains “too high.”
Japan’s
Nikkei 225 traded
0.47% lower and the Topix dropped 0.32%, while the Kospi in South
Korea fell 1.41%, and the Kosdaq slid 1.16% as investors digested the nation’s
unemployment rate.
The U.S. consumer
price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and
services, rose 0.5% in January, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%.Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and
6.2%.
Markets on Wall Street closed
mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closing
lower. However, the
Nasdaq Composite ended the day higher, boosted by technology
stocks, including Tesla and Nvidia.
Asia
markets fall after U.S. inflation comes in hotter than expected (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
slip on Tuesday night as investors process inflation data: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, FEB 14 2023 7:31 PM EST
U.S. stock futures slipped on Tuesday night
following the release of January’s hotter-than-anticipated consumer price
index.
Dow
Jones Industrial Average futures declined
by 60 points or 0.18%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell
by 0.24% and 0.28%, respectively.
The Dow fell
during the trading session and closed lower by more than 156 points. The S&P 500 remained
relatively flat, dropping 0.03%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shook
off earlier losses to close 0.57% higher.
Inflation data for January came
slightly above economists’ estimates, indicating a potentially
longer path in the Federal Reserve’s fight against rising prices. The consumer
price index increased by 0.5% for the month and 6.4% from the
prior year, compared to estimates of 0.4% monthly and 6.2% annually, according
to Dow Jones’ survey of economists.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni
Research, noted that while inflation remains above the Fed’s target rate of 2%,
the higher-than-expected numbers weren’t entirely surprising.
“The inflation came in with
expectations, and I think that’s why the market took it in stride,” he
said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.” Commenting on the
monthly uptick in inflation data, Yardeni added, “I think we’re going to have
some bumps along the road. But all in all, I think we are certainly seeing
strong disinflation.”
However, he added that despite
anticipating a soft landing for the economy, he doesn’t expect the Fed to cut
interest rates this year.
More
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, China’s economic rebound is
off to a unexpectedly slow start.
China’s economic
recovery is off to a slow start
BEIJING — China’s
economic recovery is off to a modest start.
Migrant workers have
mostly returned to work after China’s biggest holiday of the year, and children
went back to school this week.
But preliminary data
indicate overall growth isn’t roaring back on all cylinders yet, despite
mainland China ending its Covid controls in early December.
For example, official
loan data for January showed year-on-year growth in loans to businesses, but a
sharp drop in that to households.
“The mixed data send
a clear message that markets should not be too bullish about growth this year,”
Nomura’s chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.
“This pattern has
rich implications for different asset classes and commodity types, so closely
tracking these high frequency data is warranted,” he said.
Road and subway
traffic in cities is back above pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the Nomura report
said, citing mid-February data. Turnover in freight transport is still down
from a year ago, the report said.
It pointed out that
new home sales remained below last year’s levels, mostly dragged down by
falling sales in mid-sized cities, and weighing on construction activity.
Sluggish demand for
mortgages showed up in a slightly steeper drop in medium- and long-term
household loans than short-term ones.
The “unemployment
rate is still high which keeps household confidence weak,” Zhiwei Zhang,
president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note
about January’s loan data. “I’d expect household confidence to improve as well
in the coming months, but it will likely be a gradual process.”
China’s National
Bureau of Statistics does not break out retail sales, industrial production or
fixed asset investment data for January due to distortions from the Lunar New Year.
The holiday’s dates on the Gregorian calendar vary each year.
However, the bureau
released inflation data for January, which showed tepid demand as consumer
prices went up by 2.1% from a year ago — slightly less than what analysts
polled by Reuters had expected. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core
consumer price index rose by 1% in January, recovering to the same pace as June
2022.
The producer price
index that measures input costs for factories dropped by 0.8% in January from a
year ago, more than the 0.5% decline forecast by a Reuters’ poll.
More
China's
economic recovery is off to a slow start (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Is
this why global central banks bought a record amount of gold last year?
We have gold because we cannot
trust governments.
Herbert Hoover.
‘Think of the
unthinkable’: IMF chief warns world is a very different place after crises like
Covid
PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 14 2023 4:40
AM EST
The Managing Director of the IMF warned that we
need to “think of the unthinkable,” as we live in “a more shock-prone world”
impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic,
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and
the recent earthquake across Syria and Turkey.
“We all have to change our mindset to be much more
agile and much more oriented towards building resilience at all levels, so we
can handle the shocks better,” Kristalina Georgieva said Tuesday, during a
World Government Summit panel hosted by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble.
“What we are very concerned [about] is the
unexpected,” Georgieva said.
The IMF chief signaled the need for resilience in
our planet, in societies that must allow equal opportunities, and in people,
who must benefit from education, health and good social protection.
“We are not where we should be in being good stewards
of our planet for our children,” Georgieva added.
In a previous interview with CNBC, Georgieva said
that more private investments were needed to help developing countries meet their climate change goals, which cannot be
sufficiently covered by public aid and local government funding.
Ukrainians are “fighting for the right of every nation to
exist”
On the topic of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
Georgieva said the world lost “a very precious peace dividend,” prompting
nations to spend more on defence and less on domestic concerns, such as
healthcare and infrastructure.
“We cannot take peace for granted anymore,” she
said.
Georgieva praised the international response to
the war as “quite remarkable” and stressed the global implications of the
conflict:
“Everyone got some sense of sympathy for a problem
that today is Ukraine’s problem, but tomorrow can be a problem for many other
countries – that you can be invaded by your stronger neighbor,” Georgieva
said.
“In Ukraine, people strongly believe they are
fighting not just for themselves, they are fighting for the right of every
nation to exist and run its own affairs,” she added.
Georgieva said that the IMF has to play a
“stabilizing role” in the war in Ukraine, and that the country needs between
$40 billion and $48 billion to function this year.
The IMF chief previously described the invasion of
Ukraine as the “single most important negative factor” for the economy in 2022.
The global economy is set to grow 2.9% this year,
according to forecasts by the financial agency.
Cost of
Shipping Gasoline Jumps 405% After Russia Sanctions
·
Tankers
earmarked for Russian trading reduces supply elsewhere
·
Surge in
cargoes to Europe before imports ban curb capacity
10 February 2023 at 12:09 GMTUpdated on10 February 2023 at 17:18 GMT
Oil Price, Russia Sanctions: The Cost of Shipping Gasoline Is Soaring - Bloomberg
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Today, did the UK medical profession euthanise Covid
patients early in the pandemic? Approx.
8 minutes, short version. Approx 20 minutes, long version.
Deaths in the pandemic
Deaths
in the pandemic - YouTube
Pandemic unnecessary deaths, the data
Pandemic
unnecessary deaths, the data - YouTube
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, something a little different.
New compound inhibits influenza
virus replication
Date: February 9, 2023
Source: University of Bonn
Summary: Viruses use the molecular repertoire of the
host cell to replicate. Researchers want to exploit this for the treatment of
influenza. The team identified a compound that inhibits the body's own
methyltransferase MTr1, thereby limiting the replication of influenza viruses.
The compound proved effective in lung tissue preparations and mouse studies and
showed synergistic effects with already approved influenza drugs.
Viruses use the
molecular repertoire of the host cell to replicate. Researchers from the
Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2 at the University of Bonn, together with
Japanese researchers, want to exploit this for the treatment of influenza. The
team led by Prof. Hiroki Kato from the Institute of Cardiovascular Immunology
at the University Hospital Bonn has identified a compound that inhibits the
body's own methyltransferase MTr1, thereby limiting the replication of
influenza viruses. The compound proved effective in lung tissue preparations
and mouse studies and showed synergistic effects with already approved
influenza drugs. The study is now published in the journal Science.
To replicate,
viruses need a host cell. There they introduce their genetic information in the
form of the nucleic acids DNA or RNA. These molecular blueprints are used in
the host cell to produce new viruses. In order to distinguish foreign from its
own nucleic acids, the cell uses a kind of labeling system. Own RNA, for
example, is tagged with a molecular cap that identifies it as non-hazardous.
This enables the immune system to react specifically to threats.
The stolen cap
The molecular
cap is a methylated nucleoside: A small molecule attached to the end of the RNA
chain. Tagged in this way, the RNA does not trigger an immune response.
However, if there is RNA in the cell that lacks the cap structure, it is
recognized by the immune receptor RIG-I, and the immune system is alerted. To
escape this, influenza viruses have developed a special mechanism. They steal
the molecular cap from cellular RNA molecules and transfer it to their own RNA.
This process is called cap-snatching.
More
New compound
inhibits influenza virus replication -- ScienceDaily
Gold is money.
Everything else is credit.
J. P. Morgan.
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