Baltic
Dry Index. 608 -13 Brent Crude 82.17
Spot Gold 1874 US 2 Year Yield 4.44 +0.14
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 07/02/23 World 676,416,246
Deaths 6,773,425
If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid.
John Maynard Keynes.
With the mainstream news dominated by the earthquake tragedy in Turkey and Syria, it seems a little heartless to be covering commodities, cryptos, the economy, stocks and bonds, but today’s casino’s action will likely be dominated by Fed Chairman Powell’s speech in Washington later today, rather than by the earthquake.
Misidentified as a chair by CNBC rather than a sofa or pouffe, will Chairman Powell play good cop or bad cop against the punters in the global stock casinos?
Look away from those soaring US Treasury yields, the rising crude oil price and collapsing Baltic Dry [shipping] Index now. JP Morgan says that Adani Groups bonds are still good enough for their bond indexes, so there!
Asia markets
mixed as Australia raises interest rates; Baidu jumps on AI chatbot project
UPDATED TUE, FEB 7 2023 12:17 AM EST
Stocks in the Asia-Pacific traded mixed on
Tuesday, as investors digested the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate
hike of 25 basis points, broadly in line with expectations.
The S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.46%, erasing earlier gains. The Australian dollar strengthened
0.65% to last trade at 0.6926 against the U.S. dollar.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led
gains in the region and rose 0.77%, the Hang Seng Tech index rose 1.9% as
shares of Baidu
jumped on a recent announcement on its artificial chatbot.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component was
marginally higher and the Shanghai
Composite rose 0.2%.
The Nikkei 225 fell
fractionally and the Topix rose 0.22% as the Bank of Japan reportedly plans to
submit nominees for its next governor to parliaments next week, according to Kyodo. The Kospi in
South Korea rose 0.6% and the Kosdaq gained 1.4%.
In corporate earnings, Japan’s Softbank Group, Nintendo will
report third quarter earnings. South Korea’s SK Innovation and KB Financial
Group will also publish its quarterly results. Yum China will
also release its fourth quarter and full year results.
Overnight in the U.S., Wall
Street extended losses as investors digested last week’s
economic data that showed there’s more room for the Federal Reserve to hike
rates further.
The Nasdaq Composite led losses
as investors grew increasingly cautious of rising bond yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and
the S&P 500 also
closed lower. Treasury
bond yields rose overnight, with the benchmark 10-year yield up
by nearly 11 basis points at 3.64%.
Asia
markets mixed as Australia raises interest rates; Baidu jumps on AI chatbot
project (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
inch higher as investors await Fed Chair Powell’s speech
UPDATED TUE, FEB 7 2023 12:13 AM
EST
Stock futures rose slightly early Tuesday
morning as investors braced for the latest commentary due Tuesday from Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 added
0.12%, while futures connected to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average inched
up 7 points, or 0.02% higher. Nasdaq-100 futures
rose 0.18%.
On the earnings front, Pinterest shares
fell 2% after hours on a
revenue miss and weak
outlook, while Chegg plummeted
more than 22%
on disappointing guidance.
Monday’s overnight moves followed another
down session for markets as bond yields rose and pressured
growth stocks. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average dipped
34.99 points, or 0.1%, falling for its third consecutive session. The S&P 500 slid
0.61%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped
1%.
Nine of the 11 major S&P
sectors finished lower, led to the downside by communication services. The
utilities sector was the best-performing area, gaining 0.87%.
“I think the market is in a
reassessment mode, and that’s why you see markets pull back a little bit,
certainly post the jobs report, and we’re seeing a little bit more today” said
Sinead Colton Grant, global head of investor solutions at BNY Mellon Wealth
Management.
A speech from Powell before
the Economic Club of Washington on Tuesday remains top of mind
for investors. Markets interpreted a slew of his disinflation
comments during last week’s post-meeting press
conference as dovish and stocks rallied. Many view the
appearance as an opportunity for Powell to offer more clarity on where rates
are headed, or clarify some comments made after last week’s 25 basis point rate
hike.
“I think you will likely see an
attempt to perhaps dampen some of the reaction to the statements in the press
conference,” Grant said.
Earnings season presses on
Tuesday with results from Chipotle, DuPont and Royal Caribbean. So far this
season, a little over half of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings,
with about 69% surpassing expectations, according to FactSet data.
Investors will also monitor
international trade and consumer credit data.
Stock
futures inch higher as investors await Fed Chair Powell's speech (cnbc.com)
In cryptoland, more bad news. Is Binance
following FTX?
Crypto exchange
Binance will suspend U.S. dollar transfers
Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency
exchange, will suspend U.S. dollar deposits and withdrawals, the company said
Monday, without providing a reason for the decision.
“We are temporarily suspending USD
bank transfers as of February 8th,” a Binance spokesperson told CNBC. “Affected
customers are being notified directly.” The company said “0.01% of our monthly
active users leverage USD bank transfers” and added that “we are working hard
to restart service as soon as possible.”
Binance US, a unit of the company
that’s regulated by the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement
Network, said in a tweet that it’s not affected by the
suspension. Thus the move applies only to non-U.S. customers who transfer money
to or from bank accounts in dollars.
Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that following
the announcement, there was a sharp spike in outflows from Binance’s crypto
wallets, as millions of dollar-pegged stablecoins such as tether and USDC flowed
to rival exchanges or individual wallets.
Binance’s net U.S. dollar outflow
was over $172 million for the day, based on data from DefiLlama. That
represents a tiny amount of money for a company that has $42.2 billion worth of
crypto assets, according to Arkham.
“We’re still overwhelmingly
net-positive on net deposits,” the spokesperson said. “Outflows always tick up
when prices start to level off following a bullish market swing like we saw last
week as some users take profits.” Bitcoin rose
more than 38% in January, its best
month since October 2021.
Binance’s exchange token, BNB,
was largely unaffected by the news, holding steady at around $328.
Binance
crypto exchange will suspend U.S. dollar transfers (cnbc.com)
Exclusive:
Record-breaking 2022 for North Korea crypto theft, UN report says
February 6, 2023 11:05 PM GMT
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 6 (Reuters) - North
Korea stole more cryptocurrency assets in 2022 than in any other year and
targeted the networks of foreign aerospace and defense companies, according to
a currently confidential United Nations report seen by Reuters on Monday.
"(North Korea)
used increasingly sophisticated cyber techniques both to gain access to digital
networks involved in cyber finance, and to steal information of potential
value, including to its weapons programmes," independent sanctions
monitors reported to a U.N. Security Council committee.
The monitors have previously accused North
Korea of using cyber attacks to help fund its nuclear and missile programs.
---- North Korea has previously denied
allegations of hacking or other cyberattacks.
The sanctions
monitors said South Korea estimated that North Korean-linked hackers stole
virtual assets worth $630 million in 2022, while a cybersecurity firm assessed
that North Korean cybercrime yielded cybercurrencies worth more than $1
billion.
"The variation
in USD value of cryptocurrency in recent months is likely to have affected
these estimates, but both show that 2022 was a record-breaking year for DPRK
(North Korea) virtual asset theft," the U.N. report said.
More
Exclusive: Record-breaking 2022 for North Korea crypto theft, UN report says | Reuters
Finally, more on that growing Indian Adani
scandal. Approx. 16 minutes.
Asia's
Richest Man Accused of Massive Fraud
Asia's Richest Man Accused
of Massive Fraud - YouTube
India's Adani still eligible to be part of influential
JPMorgan bond indexes
February 7, 2023 3:22 AM GMT
SINGAPORE, Feb 7 (Reuters) - India's
Adani group of companies, which in recent weeks has seen a brutal selloff in
its bonds and shares after being targetted by a U.S. short-seller, is still
eligible for inclusion in JPMorgan's influential bond indexes, the bank said in
a note.
Adani, whose
business interest includes ports, power generation and transmission, and
renewable energy, has a total notional value of $7.7 billion in the JPMorgan's
CEMBI and JACI indexes, the bank said on Monday.
JPMorgan Corporate Emerging Market Bond
Index series (CEMBI) tracks dollar debt issued by emerging market corporations,
while its Asia Credit Index (JACI) tracks the total return performance of the
Asia fixed-rate dollar bond market.
Besides CEMBI and
JACI, Adani's dollar bonds remain eligible to be part of JPMorgan's ESG Global
Corporate Index (JESG), an integrated environmental, social, and governance
corporate benchmark covering investment grade and high-yield markets.
"We continue to monitor publicly
available information and liquidity of the securities, and in case of market
disruption or confirmed default event," the U.S. bank said in its note.
JP Morgan did not
immediately respond to a request for comment.
More
India's
Adani still eligible to be part of influential JPMorgan bond indexes | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bank
of England not poised to slash interest rates until middle of next year despite
inflation cooling
SUNDAY 05 FEBRUARY 2023 5:17
PM
A year of interest rate pain is still
in store for households, businesses and mortgagors even after Bank of England
governor Andrew Bailey and his team of economists have already lifted borrowing
costs 10 times in a row.
That is according to several top City
economists, who do not expect interest rate cuts until early next year.
Impetus on the Bank to keep piling the pressure on has receded due to inflation seemingly passing its peak of 11.1 per cent back in October.
The bulk of the tightening cycle’s
heavy lifting has already been done. Cumulatively rates have risen 390 basis
points between December 2021 and February 2023, the fastest acceleration since
the 1980s.
Doing more damage now risks making
the coming recession worse than it needs to be. The Bank last week said it
expects inflation to fall below its two per cent by the middle of next year if
rates stay at four per cent, indicating cuts may be needed to stimulate
spending.
However, the danger of inflation
sticking around at a higher level due to firms passing on steep pay increases –
private sector wage growth is running at record levels of just over seven per
cent – means the MPC will not be coaxed into handing cash back to homeowners
any time soon.
“While we expect the MPC to pause
after the March meeting, the underlying message that they consider the risks to
inflation to be heavily skewed to the upside reinforces our view that rate cuts
are unlikely in 2023,” Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at consultancy Oxford
Economics, said.
More
Bank of England not
poised to slash interest rates until middle of next year (cityam.com)
Business
lending to drop at fastest rate in decades as recession fears intensify
MONDAY 06 FEBRUARY 2023 7:00 AM
Bank to business lending is forecast
to contract sharply in 2023 while mortgage lending will grow at its slowest
pace since 2011 as fears of recession intensify, economists have predicted.
According to the latest forecast from
EY Item Club, an economic forecasting group, bank to business lending is
expected to contract 3.8 per cent this year – one of the sharpest falls in
decades – before returning to growth in 2024.
Borrowing demand is expected to
weaken as firms, both large and small, face multiple pressures from higher
costs of servicing debt, lower earnings and continued global supply chain
disruption.
“With more than 70 per cent of
corporate bank loans on variable rates, UK businesses are likely to be affected
in the short term by increases in interest rates,” Dan Cooper, UK Head of
Banking and Capital Markets at EY, said.
“SMEs are currently more vulnerable
to a rise in loan impairments than larger businesses as they are less able to
insulate themselves against higher rates and also because of the volume of bank
debt they hold, which has grown since 2019,” he continued.
UK mortgage lending meanwhile is
expected to grow very slowly, at just 0.4 per cent in 2023 – the slowest rate
since 2011. This is expected to increase to 1.4 per cent in 2024.
EY noted that this was a result of
both supply and demand factors. Banks are expected to tighten their mortgage
lending criteria as a result of a challenging outlook and falling house prices
while demand will fall on cost of living pressures and higher interest rates.
“A contraction in net business
lending and general downturn across the housing market looks inevitable, and an
increase in loan defaults seems unavoidable,” Cooper commented.
Demand for consumer credit, however,
is forecast to rise 4.8 per cent this year before rising 5.3 per cent in 2024.
This represents a rebound from the
pandemic period over 2020 and 2021, when consumer credit fell by over 10 per
cent.
While falling real incomes may weaken
demand for big ticket items, which are often funded by borrowing, a recovery in
the economy in the second half of this year is likely to boost consumers’
confidence in using credit, EY noted
Anna Anthony, UK Financial Services
Managing Partner at EY commented: “While the economic environment is likely to
be tough over the next few months, economic conditions are expected to improve
over the course of 2023. This is likely to have a positive impact on consumer
and business confidence – and lending growth – as we head into 2024.”
Business lending to drop at fastest rate in decades as recession fears intensify (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
New
research examines how COVID-19 affects immune-compromised people
Feb 5 2023
A recent
study published in the journal PLoS
Medicine evaluates outcomes in immunocompromised patients
hospitalized with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Background
COVID-19 disproportionately
affects older adults and those with pre-existing health conditions. Early
evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic suggested high mortality among
immunocompromised subjects.
Several studies have reported
conflicting COVID-19 mortality estimates between immunocompromised and other
patient groups, with some suggesting more deaths and others reporting no
differences.
About the study
In the present study, adults
hospitalized with COVID-19 between January 17, 2020, and February 28, 2022,
were enrolled in a prospective observational cohort study known as the
International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium
(ISARIC) Clinical Characterization Protocol (CCP) in the United Kingdom.
Patients were considered
immunocompromised if they had active cancer diagnosis/treatment, human
immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, congenital immune deficiency, underwent
solid organ transplant or were using immunosuppressants or steroids before
admission. Demographic characteristics, such as sex, age, ethnicity, and
comorbidities, were recorded at hospitalization.
Asymptomatic patients were
excluded from the analysis. In-hospital interventions were recorded, including
respiratory support level and treatments, such as steroids and interleukin 6
(IL-6) receptor inhibitors.
The primary outcome of the
study was in-hospital death. Secondary outcomes included oxygen use,
non-invasive/invasive ventilation, and admission to critical care.
Multivariable logistic
regression was performed to assess in-hospital mortality with adjustments for
sex, age, ethnicity, comorbidities, vaccination, and deprivation index.
Secondary outcome measures were similarly adjusted for the specified variables.
The researchers also
determined whether in-hospital mortality differed between immunocompromised and
immunocompetent patients.
Study findings
Overall, data for over 300,000
admissions were collected. Outcome data were available for 156,552 cases,
21,954 of whom were immunocompromised and the remaining were immunocompetent.
The median age of
immunocompetent and immunocompromised patients was 69.5 and 71.5, respectively.
Cancer patients and those taking immunosuppressants/steroids pre-admission were
older than individuals with solid organ transplants, HIV infection, or
congenital immune deficiency.
More
New research
examines how COVID-19 affects immune-compromised people (news-medical.net)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
London’s light
pollution is so bad it can power solar panels at night
Saturday 4 February 2023
Light pollution is now so bad in London at
night that it can power solar panels, experts have warned.
The steady growth of
illumination from neon signs, office blocks and transport networks is creating
a permanently lit world, which is damaging human health and wildlife and
blocking out the night sky.
Kerem Asfuroglu, a dark sky
advocate from lighting specialists Dark Source, believes that a future could
become so light polluted, people might carry umbrellas to shade themselves from the excess
glare.
He recently noticed that
London's light pollution had become so bad it could power solar panels at night
and, to highlight the issue, created an umbrella that can light up using solar cells that suck energy from the surrounding dazzle.
It was put to the test at
Piccadilly Circus, where there was enough light from advertisements, buses and
businesses to power bulbs in the fabric seams.
Speaking at a recent Dark and
Quiet Skies conference, organised by the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) and
the UK Space Agency, Mr Asfuroglu said: “This keeps me awake at night thinking
what the future of lighting will be, because we’re at such an alarming rate of
getting brighter and brighter.
Charging solar panels
“The light
pollution in London is so bad, not only horizontal but vertical illumination as
well that you can charge solar panels at night. So we decided to do something
with that, and we had the idea of coming up with an artistic project that
really showed the level of light pollution.
“This
is a cultural issue as well as an environmental one. Our visual system is very sensitive
to contrast at night and our perception of the base level of darkness is now
very saturated and diluted which will impact on us significantly.”
A
recent study showed that the night sky is brightening by 9.6 per cent on
average globally each year, as light pollution gets worse.
The
problem is so bad that a child born today would see fewer than half the stars
currently visible by the time they reach adulthood.
Dr Hannah Dalgleish, a researcher in astronomy
and society at the University of Oxford, warned that excess light has wide
implications for the health of humans and animals.
More
London’s light
pollution is so bad it can power solar panels at night (msn.com)
And God said, Let there be light: and there was
light. And God saw the light, that it was good: and God
divided the light from the darkness. And God called the light Day, and
the darkness he called Night.
Genesis 1, KJV.
No comments:
Post a Comment