Wednesday, 22 February 2023

Commodities Trading. 1914. Fed Update.

 Baltic Dry Index. 594 +42                Brent Crude 82.76

Spot Gold 1837                    US 2 Year Yield 4.67  +0.07

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 22/02/23 World 678,954,049

Deaths 6,792,696

All wars are follies, very expensive and very mischievous ones.

Benjamin Franklin.

With the relentless march to all out war well covered in mainstream media, the BBC World Service radio has gone into full propaganda anti-Russian demonisation, western war justification mode this morning, the LIR fully expects Europe’s senseless war to get very much worse in 2023, before hopefully it ends at some point next year.

Like ill fated 1914, everyone is talking themselves into a much wider war.

Thankfully, few in the stock casinos or commodity markets seem to be aware of the perilous path we are headed down.  I suspect this will change over the Spring and Summer as we get a better fix on the Ukraine’s grain and sunflower crops and potential harvests.

Below, news from the Asian stock casinos plus yet another central bank interest rate hike. With another 50 basis point hike coming from the ECB next month, expectations now are for the ECB to end the year at 4 percent, the BOE to end the year at 5 percent and the US Fed to end the year at 6 percent. Just don’t let on to the punters in the over-priced stock casinos.

Look away from that soaring inverted US yield curve now.

 

Asia markets fall as New Zealand hikes rates to 14-year high; Hong Kong releases budget

UPDATED WED, FEB 22 2023 12:40 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were lower on Wednesday after Wall Street’s sharp losses overnight, and New Zealand’s central bank continued to hike its benchmark interest rate.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 50 basis points to 4.75%, the highest in over 14 years, to tame inflation. The S&P/NZX 50 Index fell 0.6% and the New Zealand dollar gained 0.42% to stand at 0.6237 against the U.S. dollar.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.45% lower as nation saw its wage price index for the fourth quarter of 2022 come in lower than estimates.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 1.44% lower as the nation’s producer price index rose 1.6% on an annualized basis. The Topix dropped 1.28%. In South Korea, the Kospi shed 1.29% and the Kosdaq was 1.17% lower.

The Hang Seng index opened fractionally lower, while the Hang Seng Tech index fell 1.05% as investors digested Hong Kong’s budget. Financial Secretary Paul Chan said the economy shrank by 3.5% in 2022.

In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component fell 0.48%, while the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.44%.

Overnight, on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.06% and the S&P 500 dropped 2%, marking the worst downturn for both indexes since Dec. 15. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.50%.

Asia Markets: interest rates, Hong Kong GDP, Japan, Australia (cnbc.com)

Stock futures inch higher as investors brace for Fed minutes: Live updates

UPDATED TUE, FEB 21 2023 6:59 PM EST

Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading as Wall Street braced for the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes and more insight on the central bank’s future hiking agenda.

Shares of Palo Alto Networks popped after the bell as the cybersecurity company lifted its earnings forecast for the year. Crypto exchange platform Coinbase topped revenue expectations.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 47 points, or 0.14%. Meanwhile, futures linked to the S&P 500 inched 0.12% higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.16%.

Mounting concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking rates spooked investors during regular trading Tuesday and pushed stocks to cap off their worst day of 2023. A slew of earnings reports, including disappointing results from Home Depot, also sparked concerns about the health of the consumer.

The Nasdaq Composite led the session’s losses, falling 2.5%, while the S&P 500 slumped 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.06% and turned negative for the year. All major S&P sectors finished with losses, led to the downside by consumer discretionary.

Rising bond yields also kept the market on edge, with the rate on the 10-year Treasury note hitting its highest level since November during the day.

“I think there’s a repricing of the equity market based on the view that the Fed will likely have to be higher for longer, and because of the rising interest rates,” said Truist’s co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner.

Attention now shifts toward the Fed minutes due out Wednesday. Investors will scour the results for insight into the central bank’s future rate hiking path and its recent 25 basis point increase.

Where the major averages stand after Tuesday’s selloff

This is where all the major averages stand for 2023 and February after posting their worst session of the year and worst day since Dec. 15.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

  • Down 0.05% in 2023
  • Down 2.81% in February
  • 10.35% off record high
  • 81.89% off pandemic low

S&P 500:

  • Up 4.11% for the year
  • Down 1.94% in February
  • 17.04% off record high
  • 82.37% off pandemic low

Nasdaq Composite:

  • Up 9.8% for the year
  • Down 0.8% this month
  • 29.11% % off record high
  • 73.30% off pandemic low

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Norway's oil and gas production was lower than expected in January

FEB. 21, 2023 / 1:18 PM

Feb. 21 (UPI) -- The Norwegian government on Tuesday said production for January was lower than expected, despite a strong start to 2023 in terms of new oil and natural gas discoveries.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, the nation's energy regulator, published data Tuesday showing crude oil production averaged 1.75 million barrels per day and natural gas production averaged 12 billion cubic feet per day last month.

To put that in context, oil production is close to the average daily output from North Dakota, home to the Bakken shale formation. Gas production is relative to the Haynesville reserve, the third-largest shale natural gas producer in the United States.

Oil production in Norway was 3% below the government's forecast, while gas production was 3.9% below the NPD's expectations.

The NPD gave no reason for the deviation. Meanwhile, the lackluster performance came after a series of new discoveries in Norwegian waters.

Norwegian energy company Equinor made its first commercial natural gas discovery in its territorial waters for the year in mid-January. The new find could be connected with the infrastructure at the Irpa field, which will be tied into the larger Aasta Hansteen complex and extend its life by seven years.

More

Norway’s oil and gas production was lower than expected last month - UPI.com

Finally, good old commodities! What would the global commodities sector be, without fraud, lies, double dealing, cheating, over-trading, multiple hypothecations and a large cast of villains and egomaniacs to match.

Below, the great LME nickel scandal number two.

 

Column: The devil's metal strikes again in Trafigura nickel fraud case

LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Another year, another nickel scandal as the devil's metal lives up to its reputation.

When German miners first came across the stuff in fifteenth century Saxony, they dubbed it "Kupfernickel", or "Devil's Copper" because it looked like copper but wasn't.

Appearances can be deceptive when it comes to nickel, as Trafigura has just found out half a millennium later.

The commodity trader will take a $577 million charge in the first half of 2023 against potential losses arising from what it called a "systematic fraud" involving cargoes of nickel that were not nickel.

It's an age-old scam but this one is big, involving 1,104 containers with up to 25,000 tonnes of nickel. Or not, as Trafigura is discovering to its cost.

This year's scandal follows hot on the heels of the market blow-out in March last year, when the London Metal Exchange (LME) had to suspend nickel trading for fear of a complete market collapse.

Though unrelated, the two incidents reinforce a sense of crisis around how nickel is currently traded.

AN AGE-OLD SCAM

The scam of delivering metal that isn't what it appears to be is, quite literally, as old as the hills.

The British Museum hosts a clay tablet dating from around 1750 BC, in which a Babylonian merchant called Nanni berates a supplier for trying to cheat him on a shipment of copper ingots.

More

Column: The devil's metal strikes again in Trafigura nickel fraud case | Reuters

A partial listing since the 60s. Sorry, if I’ve inadvertently left anyone out.

The great New Jersey “salad oil” scandal. The great Maine White Potato default. The great Hunt Brothers silver corner and exchange rigged collapse. The great Mark Rich and Pincus Green crude oil scandal. The great LME Tin Buffer Stock price rig and collapse. The great “Mr. Copper” LME copper corner and collapse. The great Refco Inc., fraud and collapse. The great Madof fraud and collapse (although it was actually more of a stock scandal.) The great MF Global collapse with missing customer funds. The great 2020 negative crude oil price event. The great Nickel LME scandal number one.

Commodities and crooks go together like hand and glove. What’s not to like? Though lately many, if not most, crooks seemed to have graduated into cryptocurrency.

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Japan's factory activity shrinks at fastest pace in 2-1/2 years

TOKYO, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Japan's manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in 30 months in February, a business survey showed on Tuesday, in a worrying sign for the world's third-largest economy, which is facing weakening demand and struggling to tame cost pressures.

The au Jibun Bank flash Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 47.4 in February, from a final 48.9 in the previous month.

The index stayed below the 50-level that separates contraction from expansion for a fourth consecutive month and marked the largest decline since August 2020's 47.2.

Factory output and new orders decreased for an eighth straight month and at faster rates than January, the sub-index data showed.

Export orders logged the biggest decrease since July 2020 on relentlessly weak global demand as seen in recent indicators such as the slower-than-expected gross domestic product growth in October-December and January's record trade deficit.

By contrast, service-sector activity grew for a six month with further relaxation of domestic COVID-19 countermeasures. The government last month said it would downgrade the coronavirus's public health classification in May.

The au Jibun Bank flash services PMI rose to an eight-month-high of 53.6 seasonally adjusted in February from the previous month's 52.3 final.

"Service providers posted sharper rises in activity and new business as the latest wave of the COVID-19 pandemic faded, providing a boost to demand," said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey.

By contrast, service-sector activity grew for a six month with further relaxation of domestic COVID-19 countermeasures. The government last month said it would downgrade the coronavirus's public health classification in May.

The au Jibun Bank flash services PMI rose to an eight-month-high of 53.6 seasonally adjusted in February from the previous month's 52.3 final.

"Service providers posted sharper rises in activity and new business as the latest wave of the COVID-19 pandemic faded, providing a boost to demand," said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey.

More

Japan's factory activity shrinks at fastest pace in 2-1/2 years | Reuters

Italy faces new drought alert as Venice canals run dry

MILAN, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Weeks of dry winter weather have raised concerns that Italy could face another drought after last summer's emergency, with the Alps having received less than half of their normal snowfall, according to scientists and environmental groups.

The warning comes as Venice, where flooding is normally the primary concern, faces unusually low tides that are making it impossible for gondolas, water taxis and ambulances to navigate some of its famous canals.

---- Italian rivers and lakes are suffering from severe lack of water, the Legambiente environmental group said on Monday, with attention focused on the north of the country.

The Po, Italy's longest river which runs from the Alps in the northwest to the Adriatic has 61% less water than normal at this time of year, it added in a statement.

Last July Italy declared a state of emergency for areas surrounding the Po, which accounts for roughly a third of the country's agricultural production and suffered its worst drought for 70 years.

"We are in a water deficit situation that has been building up since the winter of 2020-2021," climate expert Massimiliano Pasqui from Italian scientific research institute CNR was quoted as saying by daily Corriere della Sera.

"We need to recover 500 millimetres in the north-western regions: we need 50 days of rain," he added.

Water levels on Lake Garda in northern Italy have fallen to record lows, making it possible to reach the small island of San Biagio on the lake via an exposed pathway.

An anticyclone has been dominating the weather in western Europe for 15 days, bringing mild temperatures more normally seen in late spring.

Latest weather forecasts do however signal the arrival of much-needed precipitation and snow in the Alps in coming days.

Italy faces new drought alert as Venice canals run dry | Reuters

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Pfizer Knowingly Allowed Dangerous Components in its Vaccines (Part 1)

An investigation into mRNA quality issues

Feb 19 2023

Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine contains mRNA fragments called “truncated mRNA.” This is a serious issue on top of the vaccine’s life-threatening safety events. Stunningly, Pfizer submitted falsified mRNA analytical reports to multiple health authorities.

The issue of truncated mRNA led the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to raise a “major objection” before its December 2020 conditional approval of the vaccine. What has happened? How have these issues been considered resolved? This two-part series article will address the matter in depth and examine its potential consequences for human health.

 

Summary of Key Facts

·         Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine contains truncated mRNA, which the EMA flagged as a reason for its “major objection,” indicating a preclusion of their approval.

·         Pfizer has not investigated the detrimental outcomes of truncated mRNA in its vaccines.

·         Pfizer submitted Western blot figures to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the EMA that were digitally generated—not from actual experiments.

·         There has been an alarming lack of action taken by health authorities on this issue.

·         Truncated mRNA potentially contributes to multiple vaccine-related injuries, including misfolded spike protein-induced fibrous blood clots, autoimmune disorders, and cancer.

·         These problems with the Pfizer vaccine could have resulted in drastic product quality variations from batch to batch. This could explain the difference in adverse events experienced by vaccine recipients.

·         The root cause of such irresponsible conduct by pharma and health authorities is a lack of ethics.

More

Pfizer Knowingly Allowed Dangerous Components in its Vaccines (Part 1) (theepochtimes.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Energy company announces world first as its tidal power project hits major milestone

PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 21 2023 6:46 AM EST

The emerging tidal power sector seems to have taken another step forward — an Edinburgh-headquartered firm said Monday that its project had achieved a world first by producing 50 gigawatt hours of electricity.

“During the early hours of this morning … our tidal stream array off the coast of the Pentland Firth became the first tidal stream array in the world to generate 50GWh of electricity,” Graham Reid, the CEO of SAE Renewables, said in a statement.

Reid described the news as a “significant milestone in delivering tidal stream power at scale.”

“Total global generation from all other tidal devices and sites is less than 50% of that amount,” he added.

Located in waters north of mainland Scotland, SAE Renewables’ MeyGen array is made up of four 1.5 megawatt turbines and has a total capacity of 6 MW when fully operational. Currently, three turbines are in operation.

“The MeyGen site has been operational since 2017, we have overcome many challenges, with reliability being an issue in the early days, but we have learned an immense amount along the way,” Reid said.

Scotland has a long association with North Sea oil and gas production, but in recent years it’s become a hub for companies and projects focused on tidal power and marine energy in general.

These businesses include Nova Innovation, which has developed the 600 kilowatt Shetland Tidal Array, and Orbital Marine Power, which is working on what it says is the “most powerful tidal turbine in the world.”

North of the Scottish mainland, the archipelago of Orkney is home to the European Marine Energy Centre, where wave and tidal energy developers can test and assess their technology in the open sea.

More

Firm announces world first as tidal power project passes milestone (cnbc.com)

Long-range, box-wing eVTOL prototype begins flight testing down under

Loz Blain   February 20, 2023

Australia's AMSL Aero has celebrated the first tethered test flight of its ultra-efficient Vertiia eVTOL aircraft. With its unique box wing formation, eight tilting propellers and five seats, it promises a 1,000 km (620-mile) range and speeds up to 300 km/h (180 mph).

The eVTOL space as a whole is definitely starting to look distinctly grown-up in 2023, transitioning from the crazy rush of concepts and ideas a few years ago into a broadly careful, measured and sensible sort of sector that's going through the exhaustive process of getting these machines ready for certification and manufacture.

Still, AMSL Aero is a unique and interesting company in this space – not only for the fact that it's working on this machine in Australia, on the opposite side of the globe from where most of the action is in China, Europe and the USA, but because the Vertiia is a very different airframe to the rest.

Its box wing formation should make it one of the most compact eVTOLs on the market, carrying up to five people with a footprint that might fit in a couple of car park spaces. And the Vertiia has been designed from the outset to run on hydrogen fuel cells – hence it boasts a ludicrous range figure, three to four times what most of the competition are claiming on batteries alone.

But Australia is enormous, bigger than the contiguous 48 states of the USA, with around one-thirteenth the population; if you want to build a useful air ambulance or regional commuter aircraft down under, you need to be able to handle some distance. And that could serve this company well in overseas markets too. "If you can solve the long range problem," co-founder Andrew Moore tells us over a video call, "short range is easy. If you only build a short range aircraft, then long range is impossible."

Moore believes the decision to design the Vertiia for a hydrogen powertrain from the ground up is a critical advantage, and that it'll be no easy task for competitors to redesign their aircraft to run on hydrogen, even once a powertrain is certified and ready for use. "It's almost a complete redesign if you haven't thought about it from the outset," he says.

More

Long-range, box-wing eVTOL prototype begins flight testing down under (newatlas.com)

At the beginning of this War [WW1] megalomania was the only form of sanity.

Winston Churchill.

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