Monday, 13 February 2023

A Rocky Start. Misery in Turkey, Syria And Ukraine.

 Baltic Dry Index. 602 +10              Brent Crude 85.54

Spot Gold 1859                  US 2 Year Yield 4.50 +0.02

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 13/02/23 World 677,600,631

Deaths 6,782,403

Without freedom of thought, there can be no such thing as wisdom - and no such thing as public liberty without freedom of speech.

Benjamin Franklin.

In the Asian stock casinos this morning, a rocky start. More trouble for India’s Adani group of companies.

US stock futures are signalling a lower opening.

In Asia minor, the death toll from last week’s earthquake has now risen past 33,000 with many more injured and homeless.

In Ukraine, the NATO proxy war on Russia is approaching its second year. With the Spring planting season fast approaching, how much crops will get planted in Ukraine?


Asia markets fall ahead of economic data release, yen remains volatile on BOJ nomination report

UPDATED MON, FEB 13 2023 12:17 AM EST

Stocks in Asia-Pacific were down on Monday as investors look ahead to a week of crucial economic data releases, including the U.S. consumer price index that will determine the Federal Reserve’s path forward.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 1% and the Topix was down 0.5% as the Japanese yen continued to remain volatile after a report that Japan will nominate Kazuo Ueda as its next central bank governor.

The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond stood at 0.499%, hovering around the BOJ’s upper ceiling of its tolerance range. In South Korea, the Kospi shed 0.8%, while the Kosdaq erased earlier gains and traded flat.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 0.5% and the Hang Seng Tech index dropped 0.5%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5% and the Shenzhen Component gained 0.7%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%. The S&P/NZX 50 0.85% lower as New Zealand braced for further impact from tropical cyclone Gabrielle.

Stocks on Wall Street ended the week on Friday with the S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.61%  both indexes posting the worst week since December after a slew of corporate earnings and Federal Reserve speakers reiterated their hawkish messages that there is more work to be done to tame inflation. The Dow closed nearly 170 points higher.

Asia markets fall ahead of economic data release, yen remains volatile on BOJ nomination report (cnbc.com)

Moody’s cuts outlook for four Adani group companies, cites rapid declines in market value

Moody’s lowered its outlook for four Adani Group companies on Friday, citing a “significant and rapid decline” in the market values of the entities, the ratings agency said in a notice.

It cut the outlook for Adani Green Energy from stable to negative, alongside Adani Transmission Step-One, Adani Electricity Mumbai and Adani Green Energy Restricted Group – an entity that includes Adani Green Energy, Parampujya Solar Energy, and Prayatna Developers.

“These rating actions follow the significant and rapid decline in the market equity values of the Adani Group companies following the recent release of a report from a short-seller,” Moody’s said.

Without naming Hindenburg Research, the ratings agency highlighted “the recent release of a report from a short-seller highlighting governance concerns in the Group.”

The U.S. short-seller in a Jan. 24 report accused the Indian conglomerate of stock manipulation and accounting fraud, and Adani has denied those allegations.

Adani group companies have lost more than $100 billion in market capitalization as shares plunged since the Hindenburg report.

Credit concerns

For Adani Green Energy, Moody’s said the downgrade to negative takes into consideration the company’s large capital spending program and dependence on support from its sponsors.

Moody’s described Adani Green Energy’s support will potentially come in the form of subordinated debt or shareholder loans, adding that it will “likely be less certain in the current environment.”

“The negative outlook also factors in the company’s significant refinancing needs of around $2.7 billion in fiscal year ending March 2025 and limited headroom in its credit metrics to manage any material increase in funding costs,” it said.

More

Moody's cuts outlook for 4 Adani group firms as market value declines (cnbc.com)


Stock futures are down on Sunday night as Wall Street tries to rebound from a rocky week: Live updates

UPDATED SUN, FEB 12 2023 7:00 PM EST

U.S. stock futures were down on Sunday night after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended their worst week in nearly two months. 

S&P 500 futures fell by about 0.26%. Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 64 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq-100 futures slid 0.31%.

All three major indexes ended the week on a downturn. The Dow ended the week down 0.17%. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 2.41%, marking their biggest weekly  losses since December.

These losses came after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that there is still a long way to go in the fight against inflation. Powell also noted that interest rates could rise more than markets anticipate if inflation numbers do not abate, reversing some of the prior market optimism that rate hikes would soon ease. 

“The risk, however, is that premature easing in financial conditions, and in turn, a pick up in growth expectations, may be counterproductive from an inflation fighting point of view. Indeed, post the hot January payrolls report, a number of Fed speakers this week have talked up rates expectations, pushing back on Powell’s dovish talk.” Barclays analyst Emmanuel Cau wrote in a Friday note. “As a result, the disconnect between the Fed’s own rates forecasts and market pricing has noticeably narrowed, which has hurt US equities.”

Investors are watching out for the consumer price index numbers on Tuesday for insight into the pace of inflation, as well as retail sales data. 

The final leg of earnings season also continues next week, with Coca-ColaMarriottCiscoMarathon and Paramount set to report.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Next, is crypto regulation coming or an outright crypto ban?


G20 exploring cryptocurrency regulation, India's finance minister says

Feb 11 (Reuters) - The Group of 20 (G20) big economies is exploring whether the group could collectively regulate cryptocurrencies, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday.

Given the sophisticated technologies involved with these virtual assets, countries must discuss whether a given regulation is needed, said Sitharaman, whose country is this year's G20 president.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has for several years debated drafting a law to regulate or even ban cryptocurrencies but has not made a final decision.

"We are talking to all nations, that if it requires regulation, then one country alone cannot do anything," Sitharaman told reporters after meeting the central bank's directors in New Delhi.

"We are talking with all nations, if we can make some standard operating procedure which is followed by everyone to make a regulatory framework, and if it can be effective.

India will host G20 finance ministers and central bank governors this month.

Last year, Modi has said a collective global effort is needed to deal with problems posed by cryptocurrencies. The Reserve Bank of India has said that cryptocurrencies should be banned as they are akin to a Ponzi scheme.

G20 exploring cryptocurrency regulation, India's finance minister says | Reuters

Finally, more news from the Great EUSSR. Just wait until the Great Diesel and Jet Fuel scarcity hits later this year.

‘Unspeakable botch’: Spain spends €258 million on trains that are too big for its tunnels

February 10 2923.

Spain has spent €258 million on trains that are too big to pass through its rail network’s tunnels.

Since the blunder was exposed by local newspaper El Comercio late last month, two transport bosses have been fired.

The 31 commuter trains were ordered by Renfe in 2020. They are set to replace an ageing fleet in the poorly connected northern autonomous regions of Asturias and Cantabria.

Originally slated for completion in 2024, the much-needed update is now likely to be delayed until at least 2026.

It has also emerged that the manufacturer, Basque-based CAF, flagged the error back in March 2021.

President Miguel Ángel Revilla has called it “an unspeakable botch” adding that “heads must roll", according to Spanish regional newspaper El Diario Montañés.

Who is to blame for ordering the wrong size trains?

Various parties played a part in the debacle, including Spain’s national rail operator Renfe, rail infrastructure manager Adif, transport manufacturer CAF and the State Agency for Railway Safety (AESF).

After granting the manufacturing contract to CAF, Renfe says it provided measurements based on infrastructure specifications provided by Adif. CAF later warned that the specifications may not be correct.

Built in the 19th century, the region’s rail network crosses a mountainous landscape. It has varying tunnel sizes that do not adhere to standardised modern dimensions.

So far, two senior officials have been dismissed - a Renfe rolling stock manager and Adif’s head of inspection and track technology.

Spain’s transport minister Raquel Sanchez says she was only recently made aware of the problem. She has launched an internal audit into who knew about the issue and why it wasn’t raised earlier.

Spain’s Secretary General for Infrastructure, Xavier Flores, has admitted that he was made aware of the issue months ago.

What will happen to the oversized trains?

As the trains were still in the design phase, they have not been manufactured yet.

While this minimises the cost of the error, the time-consuming process will need to be repeated, delaying the trains’ construction.

They will now be manufactured using the dimensions of a train that already runs on the network for comparison to ensure they fit through the various tunnels. Adif will also update its infrastructure data accordingly to ensure it doesn’t happen again.

France made a similar error in 2014

This is not the first time such a fiasco has taken place. In 2014, French train operator SNCF ordered 2,000 regional trains that were too wide for the network’s platforms.

Again, the error was caused by data from the infrastructure manager that did not account for older structures.

In this case, the trains were already made and the platforms had to be rebuilt at great cost.

‘Unspeakable botch’: Spain spends €258 million on trains that are too big for its tunnels (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Dollar rises as investors look to next week's inflation report; yen gains

NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The dollar gained on Friday as investors grew concerned about a U.S. inflation report next week that could show a number that is higher than markets forecast amid data showing expectations for a continued rise in prices over the next year.

The yen also rose across the board with Kazuo Ueda reportedly set to become the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor but pared gains after he said the central bank's monetary policy was appropriate. The Japanese unit was on track for its first weekly gain versus the dollar after posting losses for three straight weeks.

As the data continued to show positive U.S. momentum, the dollar was on pace for its second weekly rise against a basket of six currencies, a run it has not seen since October.

The University of Michigan surveys on Friday showed a one-year inflation outlook of 4.2%, higher than the final number in January. The overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 66.4, up from 64.9 the prior month.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has cited the Michigan survey's inflation outlook as one of the indicators the U.S. central bank tracks.

Aside from the Michigan data, revisions showed that U.S. monthly consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated, while data for the prior two months was also revised higher, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities said next week's CPI report has been "put in the crosshairs because this morning we had indications that...inflation was on a stronger footing than initially perceived last year."

"This is really challenging the idea that the Fed could cut rates and stronger data like payrolls, ISM (Institute for Supply Management) and continued tightness in labor markets are pushing the...higher-for-longer policy stance by the Fed...and that might what ends up happening. That puts the dollar back on the front foot."

Data next Tuesday is likely to show that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) climbing 0.4% month-on-month in January and the core CPI gaining 0.4% as well, according to a Reuters poll.

More

Dollar rises as investors look to next week's inflation report; yen gains | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Most young people aren’t getting latest Covid-19 booster, but they’re not filling hospital beds at three large health care systems

By , CNN Senior Medical Correspondent

Published 12:59 PM EST, Fri February 10, 2023

As the US mulls over its future Covid-19 vaccination plan, data from three large health care systems indicate that even though a small percentage of people under age 65 have gotten the new Covid-19 booster, people this age are not becoming severely ill and overwhelming hospitals.

“Even if they’re not getting boosted, young, healthy people are not getting super sick from this,” said Dr. Mangala Narasimhan, a senior vice president at Northwell Health, the largest health care provider in New York state. “We’re not seeing it. It’s not happening.”

The US Food and Drug Administration has proposed a framework for annual Covid vaccinations for all Americans over the age of 6 months, but at a meeting with its vaccine advisers last month, it did not come up with a concrete plan. Vaccine advisers to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are scheduled to meet February 24 to discuss the future of the US Covid-19 vaccination program.

Uptake of the bivalent booster, which has been available since September, has been low. Nationally, only about 16% of the population has gotten it, and the rates are especially low for people under 65, according to CDC data.

Narasimhan and doctors at Montefiore Medical Center in New York City and Clalit Health Services, Israel’s largest health care organization, say the relative mildness of current Covid strains, along with a degree of immunity from previous vaccinations and infections, are going a long way toward protecting healthy young people, even if they don’t get the booster.

Dr. Ran Balicer, director of the Clalit Research Institute and chairman of Israel’s Covid-19 National Expert Advisory Panel, noted that at earlier points in the pandemic – for example, when the virulent Delta variant was raging – it was “not responsible” to opt out of the vaccine.

“I don’t think that’s the case anymore,” he said. “I think when you’re under 65 and healthy, it’s a much more complex question, and I think that’s where individual risk assessment and personal preferences come into play.”

Since the new booster became available, about 12% of all Covid deaths in the US have been among people younger than 65, according to CDC data.

More

Most young people aren't getting latest Covid-19 booster, but they're not filling hospital beds at three large health care systems | CNN

Approx. 13 minutes.  Why no media coverage and urgent investigation?

International concern, excess deaths

International concern, excess deaths - YouTube

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Merseyside's mega-battery is switched on - and here's how it will save billions of pounds off bills

February 11 2023

It looks like a self-storage park: rows of shipping containers in a patch of Merseyside waste ground. But appearances can be deceptive as this is the first step in saving billions of pounds off bills and millions of tonnes of carbon. It's a mega-battery.

Let's take a step back. One of the great advantages of fossil fuels, and one we take largely for granted, is they are so easy to store. Piles of coal, drums of oil, tanks of gas. They just sit there waiting for a deliberate spark.

Renewables are different: you can't hold the wind or bottle the sun. As the proportion of green power on our grid grows so does this inconvenient truth.

The variable and uncontrollable nature of solar and wind is not a new discovery, but it is only now that we are coming close to an affordable solution: massive banks of lithium-ion batteries similar to those in a laptop, phone and only affordable now thanks to their use in electric cars.

Sky News has been given exclusive access to Europe's biggest grid-linked battery just after switch-on. It covers an area of around two football pitches in nearly one hundred containers and can store as much electricity as 1,500 electric cars, taking in the uneven power from wind turbines and smoothing it out for local homes and businesses. If you didn't do this, lights would dim, or wires could melt. Most of that job today is done by either firing up mini generators - so called gas-peakers - to fill the power troughs or turning turbines off to prevent surges.

James Basden, CEO of the operator Zenobe, says their batteries will cut carbon emissions.

"Battery storage sites like this are enabling more wind power to come on, but also it's shutting down the gas generators that are currently operating and as a result we save huge amounts of CO2."

But they should also cut bills too. When wind farms must turn off, they are paid to do this, paid to not generate. This is known as "curtailment" and the total cost is over half a billion pounds per year and rising as we have more renewables in the energy mix.

Zenobe and other big battery developers say if we can store it, we can use it and not pay to waste it.

More

Merseyside's mega-battery is switched on - and here's how it will save billions of pounds off bills (msn.com)

Wine is constant proof that God loves us and loves to see us happy.

Benjamin Franklin.



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