Wednesday 8 February 2023

All News Is Good News (Again!)

 Baltic Dry Index. 601 -07              Brent Crude 84.78

Spot Gold 1878                US 2 Year Yield 4.47 +0.03

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 08/02/23 World 676,593,069

Deaths 6,774,634

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

In the stock casinos, it is 2019 again, all news is good news [for now.]

But I suspect, not for very long.

Someone has to pay for higher global interest rates. Global food price inflation isn’t ending for months, at best. A wage price inflation spiral is just getting underway.

A NATO proxy war on Russia is about to enter year two, likely to expand, with no end in sight.

A fading US president seems determined to generate a Thucydides Trap clash with China.


Fed Rate Hikes Aren’t Going Away Soon

February 7 2023

Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday that January’s strong labor-market report shows the US central bank would need to keep raising rates to as much as 5.4%. Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. So by his reading, there’s still a ways to go. But JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli said markets “shouldn’t expect the same degree of hand-holding” from the central bank as it gets closer to its terminal rate. Earlier on Tuesday, the euro fell for a fourth straight session, its fastest slide since October, with investors likely building in expectations for a more hawkish Fed. The common currency dropped as much as 0.5% to 1.0669 against the dollar, the lowest since early January. It weakened even more against other G-10 peers, including funding currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. 

Here are today’s top stories

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the message that interest rates need to keep rising. Indeed, Powell floated the idea Tuesday that borrowing costs may reach a higher peak than traders and policymakers anticipate. “We think we are going to need to do further rate increases,” Powell told David Rubenstein during a question-and-answer session at the Economic Club of Washington. “The labor market is extraordinarily strong.”

More

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: Fed Rate Hikes Aren’t Going Away Soon - Bloomberg

European stocks head for higher open after Fed Chair Powell’s comments

UPDATED WED, FEB 8 2023 12:20 AM EST

European markets are heading for a higher open Wednesday as investors digested the latest comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Speaking at an event at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., Powell said Tuesday that inflation is beginning to ease but that he expects the “disinflationary process” to be a long one, and cautioned that interest rates could rise more than markets anticipate if the economic data doesn’t cooperate.

The major U.S. averages initially jumped during the remarks, before briefly falling into negative territory, and then closing higher. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed following the comments.

Europe markets live updates: stocks, earnings, data and news (cnbc.com)

CNBC Daily Open: Jerome Powell’s speech was hawkish. Investors’ mood was bullish

The bottom line

Despite whatever hawkishness there is in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s words, it seems that markets — either in a fit of optimism or misled by confirmation bias — will always seize on the most dovish of his statements and run with them. That’s what happened last week after Powell’s press conference, when markets focused on his acknowledgement that a “disinflationary process has started.” It appears the same thing occurred Tuesday after Powell’s speech in Washington D.C.

Analysts awaited Powell’s speech with anxiety. Markets dropped the previous day on January’s jobs report; they expected Powell to reassert the importance of interest rate hikes on the back of such a strong labor market. And he unambiguously did so. “If we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have do more and raise rates more than is priced in,” Powell said. “My guess is it will take certainly [higher interest rates] into not just this year, but next year to get down close to 2%.”

Yet markets reacted buoyantly. The Nasdaq Composite was the biggest winner, gaining 1.9%. The S&P 500 rose 1.29%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.78%. Markets, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq, may have been reacting positively to the flood of new AI chatbot products announced by Google and Microsoft (and Baidu), hoping they may usher in a new tech boom. But it’s just as likely that markets were relieved that Powell was not as hawkish as they had feared. And so the game of chicken between the Fed and markets continues.

Stock Markets: U.S. stocks rallied despite Fed Chair Powell’s speech (cnbc.com)

China says will 'safeguard interests' over balloon shootdown

February 7 2023

BEIJING (AP) — China said Tuesday it will “resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests” over the shooting down of a suspected Chinese spy balloon by the United States, as relations between the two countries deteriorate further.

The balloon prompted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to cancel a highly-anticipated visit to Beijing this week that had offered slight hopes for an improvement in relations.

China claims it was a civilian balloon used for meteorological research but has refused to say to which government department or company it belongs.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Tuesday reiterated that the “unmanned airship” posed no threat and entered U.S. airspace accidentally.

Mao again criticized the U.S. for overreacting rather than adopting a “calm, professional" manner, and for using force in bringing the balloon down Saturday in the Atlantic Ocean just off the U.S. coast.

Asked if China wanted the debris returned, she only reasserted that the balloon “belongs to China."

“The balloon does not belong to the U.S. The Chinese government will continue to resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests," Mao said at a daily briefing without giving further details.

Beijing's attitude has hardened considerably following a surprisingly mild initial response on Friday, in which it described the balloon's presence as an accident and expressed “regret" for the balloon having entered the U.S.

More

China says will 'safeguard interests' over balloon shootdown (msn.com)

Thucydides Trap

Thucydides Trap, or Thucydides' Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.[1] It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China.[2]

The term is based on a quotation of ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides, in which he posited that the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta had been inevitable because of Spartan fears of the growth of Athenian power.[3][4]

Supporting the thesis, Graham Allison led a study at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that among 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war. That study, however, has come under considerable criticism, and scholarly opinion on the veracity of the Thucydides Trap—particularly as it relates to a potential U.S.–China military conflict—is divided. 

The term was coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison in a 2012 article for the Financial Times.[2] Based on a quote by ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides in his text History of the Peloponnesian War positing that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable",[5][6] Allison used the term to describe a tendency towards war when a rising power (exemplified by Athens) challenges the status of a dominant power (exemplified by Sparta). Allison expanded upon the term significantly in his 2017 book Destined for War, in which he argued that "China and the US are currently on a collision course for war".[7][2

More

Thucydides Trap - Wikipedia


Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Post-QE bond losses rising reality for central banks - BIS

February 7 2023

LONDON (Reuters) - Central banks face mounting losses on the trillions of dollars of bonds they bought in the past 15 years of rolling crises, a paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said, warning that the deficits could leave them open to political attack.

Having rapidly raised interest rates to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve and its European peers are now making huge interest payments to commercial banks on deposits they themselves created with their massive support efforts, which were known as quantitative easing (QE).

The Fed's cumulative loss from its quantitative easing now stands at almost $26 billion. The Swiss National Bank made a loss of 132 billion Swiss francs ($143 billion) last year, while the European Central Bank (ECB) now pays 2.5% interest on 4 trillion euros that commercial banks got for free during the crisis years.

The U.S. Treasury will not need to worry about bailing out the Fed, which can simply defer any loss. But the Treasury will still be missing the $50 billion to $100 billion the Fed's bond profits used to provide each year.

The ECB and a number of national central banks in Europe have issued warnings, though. Britain's government, which has received more than 120 billion pounds in profits from the Bank of England since 2009, has already set aside 11 billion pounds for the central bank.

The BIS's paper said that when bailouts were required they risked raising the ire of taxpayers and politicians who then took aim at central banks' independence.

"If there is macroeconomic mismanagement and the state lacks credibility, losses may erode the central bank's standing, which may jeopardise its independence and could even lead to the currency's collapse," the paper said, referring to the worst-case scenario.

There were dozens of past examples from developing economies, including Mexico, Chile, the Czech Republic and Israel, where central banks can operate without major difficulties in negative equity, it said.

To head off any political barbs, however, the banks should communicate that the measures that led to the losses were undertaken to ensure price and economic stability which has a long-term benefit.

"To maintain the public's trust and to preserve central bank legitimacy now and in the long run, stakeholders should appreciate that central banks' policy mandates come before profits," the paper said.

Post-QE bond losses rising reality for central banks - BIS (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

How the brain can be affected by COVID-19

Tue, February 7, 2023 at 2:00 AM GMT

A new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine and Nature reveals that a severe COVID-19 infection can age the brain in a big way. MRIs and tissue samples from the brains of 30-year-olds killed by the virus were more consistent in structure and chemical function with those of 70-year-olds.

After a severe case of COVID-19, the virus may continue to reproduce in some organs for several months, but very little evidence of viral products may be seen in the blood stream. This may suggest that the virus can become disseminated by more direct pathways. For example, an infection of the brain might result from direct migration of the virus from the mucus membranes of the nose.

Animal studies with an experimental COVID-19 nasal vaccine show it to be unusually effective, especially when given two weeks following the traditional intramuscular vaccine. A broader immunity is achieved in the nasal mucosa than with the traditional vaccine, significantly reducing viral load and transmissibility. We may eventually take our annual boosters by this route.

Much of the lethality of COVID-19 has to do with the speed of infection. Even though the newer variants have mutated to become more transmissible, and accordingly faster to infect, they have not resulted in worsening disease. This is likely because more than 98% of the U.S. population now has some form of passive or active immunity. But for isolated populations, a new infection has the potential to be more dangerous. Similarly, stopping the virus early where it first infects our bodies may save a lot of lives and a lot of brains.

When you get the virus

At the first sign of illness, avoid cold temperatures that can shunt blood away from the nasal mucosa allowing a virus to become more deeply seated in the tissue. Limit the initial overreaction of the immune response by taking an anti-inflammatory drug like Advil if not contraindicated by other medical conditions. Stay hydrated with warm fluids. Some nasal saline could only help.

How the brain can be affected by COVID-19 (yahoo.com)

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, more official scare story about that Chinese balloon threat and it’s not even the silly season yet.  At least unlike the 1960 U-2, it didn’t have a pilot.

Balloon With 3 Hypersonic Missiles Tested by China in 2018

February 6, 2023Updated: February 6, 2023

Chinese state-owned television aired footage of a high-altitude balloon dropping hypersonic weapons in 2018.

The stunning footage displays a high-altitude balloon, not dissimilar from the one that traversed over the United States last week, carrying three hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) into high altitude and dropping them for testing.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported on the weapons test in September 2018. The footage has since been deleted from Chinese media, but photographs and short clips can still be found online.

In one post from 2018, a Twitter user shared footage from Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, which shows the balloon lifting the three HGVs from the ground.

HGVs are generally launched by rockets in a similar manner to traditional missiles. Upon reaching orbit, however, HGVs detach from the rocket and fly through the atmosphere using their own momentum.

Such weapons are much faster than other missiles while they are in low orbit, but become much slower upon hitting the dense air of the atmosphere as they have no jets to power them. The three HGVs dropped by the balloon in the footage appear to have been designed to test this phenomenon.

The balloon-dropped HGVs were part of an effort to develop precision warheads for hypersonic weapons, which would give the Chinese military an “unstoppable nuclear-capable weapon,” according to the South China Morning Post.

Balloons One Part of China’s War Preparations

Paul Crespo, president of the Center for American Defense Studies, said that the balloon which traversed U.S. airspace this week could “absolutely” be a dry run for an attack using a balloon-mounted weapon, but that hypersonic missiles would likely not be a first choice for China’s communist regime.

“While China has tested hypersonic missiles launched from balloons in the past, that isn’t a likely use for these airships,” Crespo told The Epoch Times in an email. “The biggest threat is sending one or more of these high altitude balloons over the U.S. with a small nuclear EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) device.”

“Detonated at extremely high altitude, they could knock out power and communications across the US, wreaking widespread havoc for a year or more without firing a shot on the ground.”

---- Communist China is not alone in developing novel ways to use high-altitude balloons as weapons of war.

The United States has researched and tested the use of such balloons for deploying swarms of explosive-laden suicide drones since at least 2018.

The Pentagon is also investing tens of millions of dollars into high-altitude balloons that it intends to use for surveillance and, notably, hopes to use to track the CCP’s hypersonic arsenal.

The Epoch Times has requested comment from the White House and Pentagon.

Balloon With 3 Hypersonic Missiles Tested by China in 2018 (theepochtimes.com)

Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

 

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