Thursday, 23 February 2023

Higher For Longer. Rates Or Inflation?

 Baltic Dry Index. 674 +80                Brent Crude 80.75

Spot Gold 1830                    US 2 Year Yield 4.66  -0.01

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 23/02/23 World 679,159,550

Deaths 6,794,399

Due to switching ISPs tomorrow, there may not be an update until Saturday.

Well the Fed minutes signalled higher interest rates than the stock casinos expect for longer.

But few in the casinos believe the Fed’s talk is for real. Would the Fedster’s really crash the US economy into a hard landing ahead of the US next presidential election? Almost no one believes that they will. Well outside of the crude oil market that is.

Instead of higher interest rates for longer, it’s far more likely to be higher inflation for longer, as the Fedsters tough talk is likely to turn into just hot air.

Besides, higher interest rates will do nothing to affect food and energy price inflation, driven by war, drought, floods, and Magic Money Tree excess since the Magic Money Tree forests were discovered by politicians in March 2020.

 

Asia markets mixed as Fed minutes signaled more hikes ahead; Bank of Korea holds rates

UPDATED THU, FEB 23 2023 12:03 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Thursday as investors digested minutes released by the U.S. Federal Reserve that showed members are still committed to fighting inflation with rate hikes.

The Bank of Korea held its interest rates at 3.5%, a first in nearly a year of rate hikes, and in line with expectations. South Korea’s Kospi was 1.1% higher alongside Samsung Electronics gaining 1.96% after the decision. The Kosdaq is also up 0.5%.

Japanese markets will be closed on Thursday for the Emperor’s birthday. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.39% in Australia. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index rose 0.54% and the Hang Seng Tech index also gained 2.07%.

In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component was fractionally lower, while the Shanghai Composite was up marginally.

Hong Kong and Singapore are expected to release their consumer price indexes, with Singapore’s CPI expected to come in at 7.1% for January.

Overnight, U.S. markets ended lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 most notably notching up a fourth straight day of losses.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average also ended the day lower, but the Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend and rose to close 0.13% higher.

Asia markets mixed as Fed minutes signaled more hikes ahead; Bank of Korea holds rates (cnbc.com)

Fed minutes show members resolved to keep fighting inflation with rate hikes

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting indicated that there are signs inflation is coming down, but not enough to counter the need for more interest rate increases, meeting minutes released Wednesday showed.

While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern over inflation is high.

Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes stated. That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.“

Consequently, the Fed approved a 0.25 percentage point rate increase that was the smallest hike since the first of this tightening cycle in March 2022. The move brought the fed funds rate to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. But the minutes said that the reduced pace came with a high level of concern that inflation was still a threat.

“Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path,” the minutes said.

The summary repeated that members believe “ongoing” rate hikes will be necessary.

Stocks fell following the release of the minutes while Treasury yields shed most of their losses from earlier in the session.

Though the quarter-point hike received unanimous approval, the minutes noted that not everyone was on board.

A “few” members said they wanted a half-point, or 50 basis point, increase that would show even greater resolve to get inflation down. A basis point is equal to 0.01%.

Since the meeting, regional Presidents James Bullard of St. Louis and Loretta Mester of Cleveland have said they were among the group that wanted the more aggressive move. The minutes, however did not elaborate on how many a “few” were nor which Federal Open Market Committee members wanted the half-point increase.

More

Fed minutes February 2023: Members resolved to keep fighting inflation with rate hikes (cnbc.com)

In other under reported news, Europe’s drought is bad news for food inflation ahead. Trouble ahead for the Rhine – Danube interlinked water transportation.

 

Europe is experiencing a winter drought: here's what you should know

Wed, 22 February 2023 at 8:05 am GMT

The banks of the Lac des Graoussettes in southwest France have been invaded by vegetation, so low are the water levels. The 32-hectare reservoir, used by local farmers and fishermen, is only a quarter full.

The country has not seen any real rain for a 32-day period up to and including 21 February, the longest such period since records began, the public forecaster Météo-France said on Wednesday (February 22).

A new drought would be disastrous for this region where the cultivation of apples, plums, walnuts, hazelnuts, tomatoes, strawberries, cereals and other seeds is highly dependent on water from local reservoirs.

"If we're only going to reach 50% capacity according to the most pessimistic forecasts, there will inevitably be a problem with irrigation this summer," says Stéphane Faresin, a cereal and prune producer from Agen and chairman of the local water management organisation Epidropt.

Warnings and alerts from Spain to Turkey

map of current droughts in Europe from the EU's Copernicus programme shows warnings and alerts over low soil moisture across many southern parts in January, from central and southwest France, to northern Spain, northern Italy and southern Germany, significant chunks of northern Greece and southern Bulgaria, and much of Turkey.

"What is unusual, actually is the recurrence of of these events, because we experience, as you know, severe to extreme drought already a year ago and another one in 2018. And what is really unprecedented is indeed, that is the recurrence pattern," Andrea Toreti, senior scientist at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and coordinator for the Copernicus, European and Global Drought Observatory, told Euronews.

Despite recent heavy rainfall across Europe, which brought severe flooding to areas such as northern Romania, the winter has brought little respite from the prolonged dry period.

Groundwater levels have remained consistently low for several years. A study by the Graz University of Technology's Institute of Geodesy used satellite data, and information from experts in several countries to track the extent of the changes.

The results revealed that the water situation in Europe had become unexpectedly precarious. "A few years ago I would not have thought that water could be a problem here in Europe, especially in Germany or Austria. We're actually getting problems with the water supply here, so we have to worry about that," said Torsten Mayer-Gürr, one of the leading researchers.

Farmers fear repeat catastrophe

The visual impact of Europe's summer drought of 2022 -- a year indentified as perhaps the worst in 500 years -- was striking.

In Italy's Po River, a barge which sunk in World War II resurfaced, the most dramatic of several shipwrecks to emerge from the depths.

The rice grown in the Po Valley area accounts for over half of the total produced in the European Union. Yields in areas such as Pavia were decimated; other rice-growing areas suffered heavily too.

Six months on, the drought continues to bite. The Po River and Lake Garda have experienced water levels similar to those recorded in high summer.

With more dry weather forecast into the grain planting season, tens of thousands of crops are at risk and efforts are underway to prevent a repeat of last summer's catastrophe.

More

Europe is experiencing a winter drought: here's what you should know (yahoo.com)

Finally, about those anti-Russian sanctions. Where there’s a will there’s a way.

 

Top brands pull out of Russia, but their goods remain easy to find

MOSCOW, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Trucks carrying Coca Cola roll across the border into Russia, tourists return from abroad laden with Zara's latest designs, and local online marketplaces snap up IKEA's furniture stocks. Western brands may have left the country, but their goods haven't.

Despite European, North American and Japanese companies exiting Russia over its actions in Ukraine, the impact on Russian consumers is minimal, although delivery times can be longer and some goods more expensive.

The main change has been to supply routes, but the products remain available both online and in stores. Buyers just need to know where to look.

Crucially, the vast majority of goods concerned are not subject to sanctions and these cross-border flows are legal. And Moscow is happy to let them in, whatever route they take.

Brands' continued availability shows the challenge companies face in controlling supply chains when exiting a market.

Zara-owner Inditex (ITX.MC) shuttered its 502 Russian stores after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine, and then sold them to UAE-based Daher Group.

Now, small-scale imports and online sellers are keeping them alive, a Reuters review of six major online marketplaces and conversations with a dozen buyers and sellers showed.

Albina, 32, took an empty suitcase to Minsk last summer and returned 24 hours later with 33,000 roubles ($442) worth of Inditex-brand Zara, Bershka and Massimo Dutti clothes for herself and friends.

---- "There are pages on Instagram, on Telegram, there are girls I know who moved to live in Europe or Istanbul or Dubai," she said. "They collect orders, let's say in Istanbul, they take 15%-30% (as commission), then get them delivered here and you pay for the delivery."

Last year's strong rouble and weak Turkish lira played into Russian consumers' hands.

Currency dynamics were partly responsible for a seven-fold increase in deliveries from Turkey on CDEK Forward, a delivery service from foreign e-commerce sites, its marketing director Dinara Ismailova told Reuters.

----- As supply chains broke down, Russia legalised so-called parallel imports, allowing retailers to bring in products from abroad without the trademark owner's permission.

E-commerce sites sell a wide range of imported goods, and sellers often advertise that they bring products from abroad.

Market leader Wildberries sells old stock from Inditex brands and has almost 17,000 goods in its Zara catalogue. A source close to Inditex said these were clearance stocks that were in Russia when it suspended activities there.

Wildberries did not respond to a request for comment.

More

Top brands pull out of Russia, but their goods remain easy to find | Reuters

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Inflation to return to 2pc target by autumn, Citi predicts - live updates 

22 February 2023.

Inflation will plunge to a little over the Bank of England's 2pc target by the autumn, according to estimates from economists, as falling gas prices ease Britain's energy crisis.

Citigroup has forecast that inflation will fall down to 2.4pc in the final three months of the year and dip to 1.9pc in the first quarter of 2025.

The banking group's prediction is far more positive than the Bank of England's estimates that inflation will be around 4pc by the end of the year. 

In August last year Citi had predicted that inflation would almost double to 18.6pc over the winter.

However, this was before the Government announced its energy price guarantee which kept average annual household energy bills capped at £2,500 despite Ofgem raising its price cap to £4,279.

European gas prices have plunged by 35pc since the start of the year.

Inflation to return to 2pc target by autumn, Citi predicts - live updates (telegraph.co.uk)

Bullard calls on Fed to get inflation under control this year

February 22 2023

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve needs to get inflation on to a sustainable path down toward its 2% goal this year or else risk a repeat of the 1970s, when interest rates had to be repeatedly ratcheted up, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Wednesday.

"If inflation doesn't start to come down, you risk this replay of the 1970s where you had 15 years where you're trying to battle the inflation drag," Bullard told broadcaster CNBC in an interview.

"... That's why I've said let's be sharp now, let's get inflation under control in 2023 and it's a good time to fight inflation because the labor market is still strong."

Bullard also repeated his view that a Fed policy rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% would be adequate for the task.

Minutes from the U.S. central bank's latest meeting released later on Wednesday are expected to detail the breadth of debate among Fed officials over how much further interest rates may need to rise to slow inflation and cool an economy that has remained stronger than expected despite tighter monetary policy.

Bullard calls on Fed to get inflation under control this year (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Today, vaccine scandal in Australia. Approx. 40 minutes. Hiding deaths, including children’s deaths, from the public.

The TGA’s Actions Are Truly Inexcusable

The TGA’s Actions Are Truly Inexcusable - YouTube

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Is it graphene winter for UK graphene firms? Britishvolt all over again?

Applied Graphene to sell business assets to Universal Matter Inc and delist

08:24 Wed 22 Feb 2023

Applied Graphene Materials PLC (AIM:AGM, OTCQX:APGMF) has agreed to sell its primary operating subsidiaries in a US$1.3mln cash deal with Canada's Universal Matter Inc and it is intended that the remaining shell of the company will be delisted from the London Stock Exchange.

The company, in a statement, said that the sale proceeds will be used to pay creditors, staff and cover operating expenses ahead of a subsequent winding up of the company on a solvent basis.

It added that it expects that the company will have minimal net cash and it is very unlikely to be in a position to return funds to shareholders.

Last month the company announced it was in talks with a number of “interested parties” following a strategic review in November – which sought strategic investment and also included an exercise to gauge demand for a potential equity raise to support the company’s ongoing activities.

Without the company securing new investment an exit was also sought.

Today, the company said that “it has become increasingly apparent to the Board during the strategic review that the business can no longer continue as an independent entity and it has been decided, therefore, that the best course of action is to pursue a sale of the trading operations in the interests of shareholders and other stakeholders.”

Canada-based Universal Matter is described as a developer and supplier of graphene-based solutions to several major industries. It has a proprietary technology and is said to “leverage strong R&D foundation to scale production processes and supply high-quality graphene to a diverse customer base with global presence.”

Applied Graphene PLC to sell business assets to Universal Matter Inc and delist (proactiveinvestors.co.uk)

Graphene firm Versarien cautions investors after widened loss

The Gloucestershire-based business said challenging economic conditions had delayed the commercialisation of its products

11:58, 21 FEB 2023

 

Graphene manufacturer Versarien has warned it will need “continuing support” from investors after challenging economic conditions “delayed the commercialisation we were anticipating” for its products.

Founded in an engineer's garage, the Gloucestershire-based advanced engineering materials firm creates commercially viable products from graphene, a material made from a single layer of carbon atoms, for the automotive, clothing, biomedical and aerospace sectors.

The AIM-listed company posted a marginally widened loss of £8.4m for the 18 months to the end of September 2022, compared to an £8.1m loss for the year to March 2021.

This was despite group revenues from its continuing operations rising from £5.7m to £11.1m during its latest recorded period, during which it secured clothing partnerships with fashion label Superdry and the kit suppliers of the England rugby team Umbro.

 

The firm said it had scaled operations at its site in the Forest of Dean with a new 10,000 sq ft laboratory, built using its own graphene-infused concrete, and equipment sourced via its Spanish subsidiary.

 

Chief executive Neill Ricketts said the firm had seen both “successes and challenges”, with the first 12 months of the period seeing "financial benefits" of a government contract it had won to explore how graphene products could be applied in the defence sector

Mr Ricketts previously told BusinessLive Versarien had secured £7m of government funding, including the £2m defence contract to develop composite structures in military applications, such as bridge building, as well as a £5m innovation loan to explore its potential use in tyres, packaging and construction.

In a statement to investors Mr Ricketts said: "We remain confident of the environmental and commercial benefits our graphene technology can bring, but the current macro-economic conditions combined with the disruptive nature of our products has delayed the commercialisation we were anticipating.

More

Graphene firm Versarien cautions investors after widened loss - Business Live (business-live.co.uk)

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Ludwig von Mises.

 

 

 

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