Baltic Dry Index. 674 +80 Brent Crude 80.75
Spot Gold 1830 US 2 Year Yield 4.66 -0.01
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 23/02/23 World 679,159,550
Deaths 6,794,399
Due to switching ISPs tomorrow, there may not be an update until Saturday.
Well the Fed minutes signalled higher interest rates than the stock casinos expect for longer.
But few in the casinos believe the Fed’s talk is for real. Would the Fedster’s really crash the US economy into a hard landing ahead of the US next presidential election? Almost no one believes that they will. Well outside of the crude oil market that is.
Instead of higher interest rates for longer, it’s far more likely to be higher inflation for longer, as the Fedsters tough talk is likely to turn into just hot air.
Besides, higher interest rates will do
nothing to affect food and energy price inflation, driven by war, drought,
floods, and Magic Money Tree excess since the Magic Money Tree forests were
discovered by politicians in March 2020.
Asia markets
mixed as Fed minutes signaled more hikes ahead; Bank of Korea holds rates
UPDATED THU, FEB 23 2023 12:03 AM
EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Thursday as
investors digested minutes released by the U.S. Federal Reserve that showed
members are still committed to fighting
inflation with rate hikes.
The Bank of Korea held its
interest rates at 3.5%, a first in nearly a year of rate hikes, and in line
with expectations. South Korea’s Kospi was
1.1% higher alongside Samsung Electronics gaining 1.96% after the
decision. The Kosdaq is also up 0.5%.
Japanese markets will be closed
on Thursday for the Emperor’s birthday. The S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.39% in Australia. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index rose
0.54% and the Hang Seng Tech index also gained 2.07%.
In mainland China, the Shenzhen Component was
fractionally lower, while the Shanghai
Composite was up marginally.
Hong Kong and Singapore are expected to release
their consumer price indexes, with Singapore’s CPI expected to come in at 7.1%
for January.
Overnight, U.S. markets ended
lower on Wednesday, with the S&P
500 most notably notching up a fourth straight day of losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also
ended the day lower, but the Nasdaq
Composite bucked the trend and rose to close 0.13% higher.
Asia
markets mixed as Fed minutes signaled more hikes ahead; Bank of Korea holds rates
(cnbc.com)
Fed minutes show
members resolved to keep fighting inflation with rate hikes
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials at their
most recent meeting indicated that there are signs inflation is coming down,
but not enough to counter the need for more interest rate increases, meeting
minutes released Wednesday showed.
While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most
of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern
over inflation is high.
Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes stated. That came with labor
markets that “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures
on wages and prices.“
Consequently, the
Fed approved a 0.25 percentage point rate increase that was the
smallest hike since the first of this tightening cycle in March 2022. The
move brought the fed funds rate to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. But the minutes said that the
reduced pace came with a high level of concern that inflation was still a
threat.
“Participants noted that inflation
data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the
monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence
of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident
that inflation was on a sustained downward path,” the minutes said.
The summary repeated that members believe “ongoing” rate hikes will be
necessary.
Stocks
fell following the release of the minutes while Treasury yields
shed most of their losses from earlier in the session.
Though the quarter-point hike received unanimous approval, the
minutes noted that not everyone was on board.
A “few” members said they wanted a half-point, or
50 basis point, increase that would show even greater resolve to get inflation
down. A basis point is equal to 0.01%.
Since the meeting, regional Presidents James
Bullard of St. Louis and Loretta Mester of Cleveland have said they were among
the group that wanted the more aggressive move. The minutes, however did not
elaborate on how many a “few” were nor which Federal Open Market Committee
members wanted the half-point increase.
More
Fed
minutes February 2023: Members resolved to keep fighting inflation with rate
hikes (cnbc.com)
In other under reported news, Europe’s
drought is bad news for food inflation ahead. Trouble ahead for the Rhine –
Danube interlinked water transportation.
Europe is experiencing a winter drought: here's what
you should know
Wed, 22 February 2023 at
8:05 am GMT
The banks of the Lac des Graoussettes
in southwest France have been invaded by vegetation, so low are the water
levels. The 32-hectare reservoir, used by local farmers and fishermen, is only
a quarter full.
The country has not seen any real
rain for a 32-day period up to and including 21 February, the longest such
period since records began, the public forecaster Météo-France said on
Wednesday (February 22).
A new drought would be disastrous for
this region where the cultivation of apples, plums, walnuts, hazelnuts,
tomatoes, strawberries, cereals and other seeds is highly dependent on water
from local reservoirs.
"If we're only going to reach
50% capacity according to the most pessimistic forecasts, there will inevitably
be a problem with irrigation this summer," says Stéphane Faresin, a cereal
and prune producer from Agen and chairman of the local water management
organisation Epidropt.
Warnings and alerts from Spain to Turkey
A map of current droughts in Europe from
the EU's Copernicus programme shows warnings and alerts over low soil moisture
across many southern parts in January, from central and southwest France, to
northern Spain, northern Italy and southern Germany, significant chunks of
northern Greece and southern Bulgaria, and much of Turkey.
"What is unusual, actually is the recurrence of of these events,
because we experience, as you know, severe to extreme drought already a year
ago and another one in 2018. And what is really unprecedented is indeed, that
is the recurrence pattern," Andrea Toreti, senior scientist at the
European Commission's Joint Research Centre and coordinator for the Copernicus,
European and Global Drought Observatory, told Euronews.
Despite recent heavy rainfall across
Europe, which brought severe flooding to areas such as northern Romania, the
winter has brought little respite from the prolonged dry period.
Groundwater levels have remained
consistently low for several years. A study by the Graz University of Technology's Institute of Geodesy used
satellite data, and information from experts in several countries to track the
extent of the changes.
The results revealed that the water
situation in Europe had become unexpectedly precarious. "A few years ago I
would not have thought that water could be a problem here in Europe, especially
in Germany or Austria. We're actually getting problems with the water supply
here, so we have to worry about that," said Torsten Mayer-Gürr, one of the
leading researchers.
Farmers fear repeat catastrophe
The visual impact of Europe's
summer drought of 2022 -- a year indentified as perhaps the worst in 500 years -- was
striking.
In Italy's Po River, a barge
which sunk in World War II resurfaced, the most dramatic of several shipwrecks
to emerge from the depths.
The rice grown in the Po Valley
area accounts for over half of the total produced in the European Union. Yields
in areas such as Pavia were decimated; other rice-growing areas suffered
heavily too.
Six months on, the drought
continues to bite. The Po River and Lake Garda have experienced water
levels similar to those recorded in high summer.
With more dry weather forecast
into the grain planting season, tens of thousands of crops are at risk and
efforts are underway to prevent a repeat of last summer's catastrophe.
More
Europe is experiencing a winter drought: here's what you should know (yahoo.com)
Finally, about those anti-Russian sanctions.
Where there’s a will there’s a way.
Top
brands pull out of Russia, but their goods remain easy to find
February
22, 2023 6:49 PM GMT
MOSCOW, Feb 22
(Reuters) - Trucks carrying Coca Cola roll across the border into Russia,
tourists return from abroad laden with Zara's latest designs, and local online
marketplaces snap up IKEA's furniture stocks. Western brands may have left the
country, but their goods haven't.
Despite
European, North American and Japanese companies exiting Russia over its actions
in Ukraine, the impact on Russian consumers is minimal, although delivery times
can be longer and some goods more expensive.
The main change
has been to supply routes, but the products remain available both online and in
stores. Buyers just need to know where to look.
Crucially,
the vast majority of goods concerned are not subject to sanctions and these
cross-border flows are legal. And Moscow is happy to let them in, whatever
route they take.
Brands'
continued availability shows the challenge companies face in controlling supply
chains when exiting a market.
Zara-owner
Inditex (ITX.MC) shuttered its 502 Russian stores
after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine, and then sold them to UAE-based Daher
Group.
Now,
small-scale imports and online sellers are keeping them alive, a Reuters review
of six major online marketplaces and conversations with a dozen buyers and
sellers showed.
Albina,
32, took an empty suitcase to Minsk last summer and returned 24 hours later
with 33,000 roubles ($442) worth of Inditex-brand Zara, Bershka and Massimo
Dutti clothes for herself and friends.
---- "There
are pages on Instagram, on Telegram, there are girls I know who moved to live
in Europe or Istanbul or Dubai," she said. "They collect orders,
let's say in Istanbul, they take 15%-30% (as commission), then get them
delivered here and you pay for the delivery."
Last
year's strong rouble and weak Turkish lira played into Russian consumers'
hands.
Currency
dynamics were partly responsible for a seven-fold increase in deliveries from
Turkey on CDEK Forward, a delivery service from foreign e-commerce sites, its
marketing director Dinara Ismailova told Reuters.
----- As
supply chains broke down, Russia legalised so-called parallel imports, allowing
retailers to bring in products from abroad without the trademark owner's
permission.
E-commerce
sites sell a wide range of imported goods, and sellers often advertise that
they bring products from abroad.
Market
leader Wildberries sells old stock from Inditex brands and has almost 17,000
goods in its Zara catalogue. A source close to Inditex said these were
clearance stocks that were in Russia when it suspended activities there.
Wildberries
did not respond to a request for comment.
More
Top
brands pull out of Russia, but their goods remain easy to find | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Inflation to
return to 2pc target by autumn, Citi predicts - live updates
22 February 2023.
Inflation will plunge to a little
over the Bank of England's 2pc target by the autumn, according to estimates
from economists, as falling gas prices ease Britain's energy crisis.
Citigroup has forecast that
inflation will fall down to 2.4pc in the final three months of the year and dip
to 1.9pc in the first quarter of 2025.
The banking group's prediction is
far more positive than the Bank of England's estimates that inflation will be
around 4pc by the end of the year.
In August last year Citi had
predicted that inflation would almost double to 18.6pc over the winter.
However, this was before the
Government announced its energy price guarantee which kept average annual
household energy bills capped at £2,500 despite Ofgem raising its price cap to
£4,279.
European gas prices have plunged
by 35pc since the start of the year.
Inflation to return to 2pc target by autumn, Citi predicts - live updates (telegraph.co.uk)
Bullard calls on Fed
to get inflation under control this year
February
22 2023
(Reuters) - The Federal
Reserve needs to get inflation on to a sustainable path down toward its 2% goal
this year or else risk a repeat of the 1970s, when interest rates had to be
repeatedly ratcheted up, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on
Wednesday.
"If
inflation doesn't start to come down, you risk this replay of the 1970s where
you had 15 years where you're trying to battle the inflation drag,"
Bullard told broadcaster CNBC in an interview.
"...
That's why I've said let's be sharp now, let's get inflation under control in
2023 and it's a good time to fight inflation because the labor market is still
strong."
Bullard also
repeated his view that a Fed policy rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% would be
adequate for the task.
Minutes from
the U.S. central bank's latest meeting released later on Wednesday are expected
to detail the breadth of debate among Fed officials over how much further
interest rates may need to rise to slow inflation and cool an economy that has
remained stronger than expected despite tighter monetary policy.
Bullard calls on Fed to get inflation under control this year (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Today, vaccine scandal in Australia. Approx. 40
minutes. Hiding deaths, including children’s deaths, from the public.
The
TGA’s Actions Are Truly Inexcusable
The
TGA’s Actions Are Truly Inexcusable - YouTube
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Is it graphene winter for UK graphene
firms? Britishvolt all over again?
Applied
Graphene to sell business assets to Universal Matter Inc and delist
08:24 Wed 22 Feb 2023
Applied Graphene Materials PLC (AIM:AGM, OTCQX:APGMF) has agreed to sell its primary operating
subsidiaries in a US$1.3mln cash deal with Canada's Universal Matter Inc
and it is intended that the remaining shell of the company will be delisted
from the London Stock Exchange.
The
company, in a statement, said that the sale proceeds will be used to pay
creditors, staff and cover operating expenses ahead of a subsequent winding up
of the company on a solvent basis.
It added
that it expects that the company will have minimal net cash and it is very
unlikely to be in a position to return funds to shareholders.
Last
month the company announced it was in talks with a number of “interested
parties” following a strategic review in November – which sought strategic
investment and also included an exercise to gauge demand for a potential equity
raise to support the company’s ongoing activities.
Without the company
securing new investment an exit was also sought.
Today, the company
said that “it has become increasingly apparent to the Board during the
strategic review that the business can no longer continue as an independent
entity and it has been decided, therefore, that the best course of action is to
pursue a sale of the trading operations in the interests of shareholders and
other stakeholders.”
Canada-based
Universal Matter is described as a developer and supplier of graphene-based
solutions to several major industries. It has a proprietary technology and is
said to “leverage strong R&D foundation to scale production processes and
supply high-quality graphene to a diverse customer base with global presence.”
Graphene firm Versarien
cautions investors after widened loss
The
Gloucestershire-based business said challenging economic conditions had delayed
the commercialisation of its products
11:58, 21 FEB 2023
Graphene manufacturer Versarien has warned it will need “continuing
support” from investors after challenging economic conditions “delayed the
commercialisation we were anticipating” for its products.
Founded in an engineer's garage, the Gloucestershire-based advanced
engineering materials firm creates commercially viable products from graphene,
a material made from a single layer of carbon atoms, for the automotive,
clothing, biomedical and aerospace sectors.
The AIM-listed company posted a marginally widened loss of £8.4m
for the 18 months to the end of September 2022, compared to an £8.1m loss for
the year to March 2021.
This was despite group revenues
from its continuing operations rising from £5.7m to £11.1m during its latest
recorded period, during which it secured clothing partnerships with fashion
label Superdry and the kit suppliers of the England rugby
team Umbro.
The firm said it had scaled
operations at its site in the Forest of Dean with a new 10,000 sq ft laboratory, built using its own
graphene-infused concrete, and equipment sourced via its Spanish subsidiary.
Chief executive Neill Ricketts said the firm had seen both “successes
and challenges”, with the first 12 months of the period seeing "financial
benefits" of a government contract it had won to explore how graphene
products could be applied in the defence sector
Mr Ricketts previously told BusinessLive Versarien
had secured £7m of government funding, including the £2m defence contract to
develop composite structures in military applications, such as bridge building,
as well as a £5m innovation loan to explore its potential use in tyres,
packaging and construction.
In a statement to investors Mr Ricketts said: "We remain confident
of the environmental and commercial benefits our graphene technology can bring,
but the current macro-economic conditions combined with the disruptive nature
of our products has delayed the commercialisation we were anticipating.
More
Graphene firm
Versarien cautions investors after widened loss - Business Live
(business-live.co.uk)
"There is no means of avoiding the final
collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of
further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the
currency system involved."
Ludwig
von Mises.
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