Thursday, 4 September 2025

A Global Debt Crisis? Stocks, Bonds, Gold? US Jobs.

Baltic Dry Index. 1940 -46              Brent Crude 67.17

Spot Gold 3531                    US 2 Year Yield 3.61 -0.05

US Federal Debt. 37.316 trillion

US GDP 30.244 trillion.

"We pay the debts of the last generation, by issuing bonds payable by the next generation."

Dr. Laurence J. Peter, author, The Peter Principal.

In the stock casinos, rising tension. Are global bonds signalling the arrival of a global debt crisis? What if the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s tariffs and the US government has to refund  most tariffs collected?

Will tomorrow’s US jobs report force the US central bank into cutting their key interest rate just as Trump’s tariffs inflation starts to hit? How high would gold and silver rise?

But for now, the Google – AI relief rally.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise, tracking tech rally on Wall Street

Published Wed, Sep 3 2025 7:54 PM ED

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Thursday following a tech rally overnight on Wall Street that lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, even as growing fears around the economy weighed on equities.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 1.26%, while the Topix index increased 0.79%. Earlier in the session, shares of Kyoto-based Nidec Corp plunged as much as 22.44%, after the company announced a probe into allegations of improper accounting in its group.

Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark climbed 0.64% after the country’s household spending in July rose 0.5% month on month, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. This compares to a gain of 0.3% in June. On a yearly basis, household spending growth rose 5.1% in July, the fastest pace since November 2023.

The growth was boosted by demand for the health, transport, miscellaneous goods and services sectors.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi index traded 0.14% higher and the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.94%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index reversed course and fell 1.21%, while the mainland’s CSI 300 retreated 2.47% in volatile trading.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 0.82% at the open, and the Sensex index was 0.64% higher.

Global bond markets will continue to be in focus with long-dated borrowing costs around the world under pressure. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield nudged above 5% on Wednesday morning for the first time since July after a court ruled that most of the Trump administration’s tariffs are illegal, raising questions over the future of tariff revenues.

Japan’s 30-year bond yield was at a record high on Wednesday, with a 100 basis point rise this year driven by high inflation, low real rates and political uncertainty.

Overnight stateside, the three major averages closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose Wednesday, boosted by tech shares after a federal court decision in an Alphabet antitrust case fueled optimism that the tech giants would be able to weather regulatory threats.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.03% to end the day at 21,497.73, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.51% to finish at 6,448.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, falling 24.58 points, or 0.05%, to settle at 45,271.23.

Asia-Pacific markets: Nikkei 225, bonds, Treasurys

US Employment Picture Darkens With New Data

September 3, 2025 at 11:51 PM GMT+1

It’s only the third day of a much-feared month of September and sobering US economic news is already piling up. Yesterday it was six straight months of shrinking manufacturing. Today it’s job openings falling in July to the lowest in 10 months, adding to other employment data (including a report last month that caused Donald Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics) showing America’s once-robust post-pandemic jobs landscape continues to darken.

Even worse, the sectors most responsible for the new numbers aren’t cyclical and had been recent drivers of growth. Available positions decreased to 7.18 million from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June, according to data published Wednesday by the BLS, a division of the US Department of Labor. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 7.38 million openings.

The pullback in openings was driven by health care, retail trade and leisure and hospitality. Vacancies in health care, which has been a major source of new jobs this year, dropped to the lowest level since 2021.

And that’s not the end of it. Also on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reported “flat to declining consumer spending because, for many households, wages were failing to keep up with rising prices.” The Fed also stated that “nearly all districts noted tariff-related price increases” with many saying “tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs.” Still, all this dour data is good news for Wall Street, inasmuch as it pushes a rate cut closer to a fait accompliDavid E. Rovella

US Employment Picture Darkens With New Data: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

CNBC Daily Open: Investors bet on Fed cuts, but labor data cuts deepe

Published Wed, Sep 3 2025 9:34 PM EDT

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed Wednesday, powered by tech shares after a federal court decision allowed Google to keep its Chrome browser.

Optimism around a looming rate cut by the Federal Reserve also buoyed markets, with the CME Fedwatch tool indicating a 96.6% chance of a Fed rate cut in its September meeting later this month.

However, weak economic data seems to hang like a dark cloud over investors. Job openings ticked down in July to levels rarely seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, bolstering fears of cooling in the labor market.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report showed around 7.18 million listings in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. That’s only the second reading under the 7.2 million level since the end of 2020.

Economists also expect Thursday’s ADP private payrolls report to show a softer print for August, and jobless claims data is expected to show a slight uptick. The unemployment report due Friday is forecast to show jobless rate inching up to 4.3% from 4.2%.

In short, the Fed may be ready to cut rates, but the job market’s cutting deeper.

CNBC Daily Open: Investors bet on Fed cuts, but labor data cuts deeper

Global bond sell-off reflects unease over budgets and central banks

Published Wed, Sep 3 2025 6:00 AM EDT

Long-dated borrowing costs around the world are back under pressure, and analysts say that’s in part thanks to broad investor unease with the path of both fiscal and monetary policy in many major economies.

Bond markets have been on a bumpy ride this year, with massive spikes and falls at times stemming from White House policymaking, ranging from tariffs to concerns about the U.S. deficit related to the “big, beautiful tax bill.”

Moves have been more measured this week. But several yields hit notable milestones, reigniting discussion over the opportunities and risks in government debt.

The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield nudged above 5% on Wednesday morning for the first time since July amid questions over the future of tariff revenues following a recent court ruling. Japan’s 30-year bond yield was at a record high on Wednesday, with a 100 basis point rise this year driven by high inflation, low real rates and political uncertainty.

The yield on U.K. 30-year bonds on Tuesday reached its highest level since 1998 ahead of a highly anticipated budget set to be delivered in the coming months, and added another 4 basis points early Wednesday. The premium on French 30-year bonds breached a level last seen in 2008 as the government is on the brink of collapse, putting the country’s deficit reduction plans at risk.

German bonds, which benefited from a flight to safety earlier in the year, joined the rout, with the 30-year bund yield notching a 14-year high.

Rate pressure

Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said that while there is no crisis in the bond market, the elevated price being paid by governments, combined with high interest rates, is an economic problem across the advanced world.

″[High rates] constrain policy choices, they crowd out private investment, they leave us wondering every six months whether we’re going to face a bout of financial instability. These are really, really bad for the private sector,” Pickering told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“I’m actually getting to the point now where I think that austerity would be stimulative, because you would actually give markets confidence, you would bring down these bond yields, and the private sector would just breathe a sigh of relief and start distributing some of its balance sheet strength.”

Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said there appears to be three overlapping drivers between the global move higher in long-end yields: fiscal concerns, monetary policy, and term premia effects such as supply-demand dynamics.

Both the U.K. and France are facing a “tricky budget arithmetic” in which “some combination of tax increases and spending cuts are needed to keep public finances on a sustainable footing and bond markets on side,” he said in a Tuesday note.

Market dynamics, meanwhile, suggest wavering confidence over central banks’ “ability and willingness to keep inflation under control in the medium term,” Goltermann continued, though he noted the relative resilience of U.S. yields where fears over central bank independence have become acute.

More

Global bond sell-off reflects unease over budgets and central banks

In other news.

Rising visa costs risk accelerating US travel decline as new fee comes into effect

September 3, 2025

Some travellers to the US could soon see their trip become even more expensive as a new $250 (€287.6) “visa integrity fee” will go into effect on 1 October this year. 

With travel numbers to the US already falling, this fee could further strain the country’s travel industry. 

It will increase the total US visa cost to $442 (€379.2). This would make it one of the most expensive tourist visas in the world, according to the US Travel Association, along with Australia’s visitor visa under subclass 600, at AUD 195 (€108.9) and the UK’s six-month tourist visa at £127 (€145.9). 

With a one-week mid-range US trip costing almost $2,000 (€1,722.1), according to money transfer comparison website Exiap, this added visa cost could make US travel significantly more expensive for families and group travellers in particular.

Which countries will be impacted?

The new visa integrity fee will affect travellers from non-visa waiver countries such as ArgentinaMexico, China, Brazil and India

The fee is expected to hit Central and South American countries especially hard, potentially costing the US a large number of visitors from these places.  It comes as visitor numbers from these countries to the US have been on the rise, despite a wider global downturn in US travel. 

Mexican traveller numbers to the US rose almost 14 per cent this year, as of May, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office. Similarly, visitors from Brazil increased 4.6 per cent year-to-date, while Argentinian travellers surged 20 per cent. 

Overall, travel from South America to the US rose 0.7 per cent, whereas Central American travel increased 3 per cent. 

However, with US trips already being relatively expensive for travellers from these countries, the visa fee increase could mean that visitors start looking at other potential holiday destinations. 

On the other hand, Indian travel numbers to the US have dropped 2.4 per cent so far in 2025, dampened by an almost 18 per cent fall in students. 

Similarly, Chinese visitor numbers to the US were still 53 per cent below 2019 level as of July. 

EU member states part of the US Visa Waiver Program (VWP), such as Belgium, France, Germany, Austria and Italy, among others, will not be impacted by the visa integrity fee. 

These travellers can still visit the US for business or tourism stays for 90 days or less without a visa, as long as they have an approved Electronic System or Travel Authorisation (ESTA). The UK will also be exempt from the visa fee hike under the same rules. 

---- US travel continues to drop sharply in 2025

According to preliminary figures from the US National Travel and Tourism Office, international arrivals, not including travellers from Canada or Mexico, fell 1.6 per cent, or more than 3 million, so far in 2025 when compared to 2024. 

Foreign travel to the US also dropped 3.1 per cent on an annual basis this July to 19.2 million. This was the fifth month that visitor numbers fell in 2025. It has countered expectations that travel numbers would finally top pre-pandemic levels of 79.4 million this year. 

Rising visa costs risk accelerating US travel decline as new fee comes into effect

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Economist, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warns USA could be in recession by the end of 2025

3 September 2025

President Trump has consistently pointed to a thriving U.S. economy as proof of his policies’ success.

High GDP growth, strong investment figures, and low inflation have been used to bolster his claims.

But not everyone is buying it.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says the U.S. economy is edging dangerously close to a downturn.

Known for having correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, Zandi now sees a similar storm brewing, warning a recession could arrive by late 2025.

In an interview with Newsweek, Zandi stated: “I don’t think the economy is in a recession, at least not at this point, but it feels like it’s on the brink.”

His concerns aren’t speculative—they’re rooted in key economic indicators that he says are all trending in the wrong direction.

One of Zandi’s top concerns is jobs.

He notes that hiring has slowed to a “virtual standstill,” based on recent payroll reports.

While layoffs haven’t surged yet, the slowdown is significant enough to raise alarms about the overall health of the labor market.

According to Zandi, the only thing keeping the economy from slipping into recession is the absence of mass layoffs.

“That’s the firewall between recession and no recession,” he explained.

But he warned that firewall may not hold for long.

Zandi urges close attention to monthly employment data.

The moment job growth turns negative, he says, “that’s when alarm bells should start going off.”

He expects this shift to happen soon.

While Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet hit American consumers hard, Zandi believes the worst is ahead.

Many companies have delayed passing costs on to consumers, fearing political fallout or awaiting final tariff decisions.

Zandi expects the annual inflation rate—currently 2.7%—to rise above 3%, and possibly approach 4% within the next year.

He warns that price hikes will soon be unavoidable and painfully obvious to consumers at grocery stores, gas pumps, and retail outlets.

As inflation bites and layoffs begin, Zandi predicts a consumer-led slowdown.

With tighter wallets, Americans could cut back on spending, triggering even more strain on businesses—and more layoffs in return.

This cycle, he says, is the core danger.

Zandi outlines a classic economic spiral: consumers spend less, businesses lay off workers, and the resulting income loss causes even more spending cuts.

“It becomes a self-reinforcing vicious cycle,” he said—one that could push the economy over the edge.

More

Economist, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warns USA could be in recession by the end of 2025

EU Accelerating Toward Collapse: Merz, Draghi, And Lagarde Reveal Europe's Crisis Path

Wednesday, Sep 03, 2025 - 07:00 AM

The Chancellor seems to have collided with reality during the summer break. Merz sees the German social system in deep crisis. Meanwhile, his political allies in Brussels are calling for an increase in the very dose of poison that is making Europe sick.

Let’s be blunt: Large parts of the political elite have a fractured relationship with reality. This applies equally to the economic decay of Germany and the EU, as well as to the public communication of strategic political goals, which are systematically obscured. Open criticism of the course could cause the political fairy tale to collapse faster than reality seeps into public opinion.

Merz and the Welfare State

All the more remarkable are the warning words of Chancellor Friedrich Merz during his Saturday appearance at the CDU state party conference in Lower Saxony. “I am not satisfied with what we have achieved so far – it must be more, it must be better.”

Hear that! A faint tremor of self-criticism from the Chancellor. Rare, indeed. Yet the statement raises the question: what exactly does Merz mean by “achievements”? Is he referring to the so-called investment booster, supposedly providing marginal relief to the German economy while it teeters on collapse? Or does he mean the massive debt packages and widening financing gaps, most likely to be closed with tax hikes?

In his speech in Osnabrück, Merz later spoke unusually clearly about the state of the welfare system: “The welfare state, as we have it today, is no longer financially sustainable given what we can deliver economically.” A blunt diagnosis, leaving little to be desired in clarity.

There was, however, no mention of a market-oriented turn, trust in individual solutions, personal responsibility, or rapid bureaucratic reduction. The message seems to be: stay the course.

Moments of Honesty

Merz also spoke unequivocally about citizen welfare payments: it cannot continue like this. 5.6 million people receive the payments. Many could work but do not, he said. A reality that politics usually avoids.

A tentative attempt to openly name the precarious state of German social insurance. In times when political sugar-coating is routine, it’s almost a stroke of luck when a leading politician at least partially acknowledges economic realities.

Have the latest economic data perhaps shaken Merz and his colleagues in Berlin? GDP shrank again in the second quarter, and the outlook remains bleak. With the state intervening via massive credit programs and new debt hitting about 3.5% this year, the private economy is contracting at 4–5%. Calling this a recession would be euphemistic — we are in a depression.

More

EU Accelerating Toward Collapse: Merz, Draghi, And Lagarde Reveal Europe's Crisis Path | ZeroHedge

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Over-the-Counter Nasal Spray May Cut COVID-19 Risk by 70%, Study Finds

3 September 2025

In the near future, a simple nasal spray in your medicine cabinet would not only ease allergy congestion but also significantly bring down your risk of catching COVID-19. According to a new clinical study, which is still ongoing, an over-the-counter antihistamine nasal spray has been showing remarkable preventive effects against coronavirus. With the cases of COVID-19 high again, experts believe this affordable and accessible spray can offer an extra layer of protection.

According to the trial, azelastine can cut COVID-19 infections by at least 70 per cent.

The phase 2 randomised and placebo-controlled clinical trial led by scientists from Saarland University in Germany says apart from keeping COVID-19 away, the spray can also be helpful in reducing the incidence of infections with the common cold. “This clinical trial is the first to demonstrate a protective effect in a real-world setting,” said Dr Robert Bals, Director of Saarland’s department of Pulmonology, Allergology, Respiratory Intensive Care and Environmental Medicine. “Azelastine nasal spray could provide an additional easily accessible prophylactic to complement existing protective measures, especially for vulnerable groups, during periods of high infection rates, or before travelling,” he added.

How was the study conducted?

For the trial, scientists had recruited 450 healthy adults, with an average age of around 33. Almost all the participants were vaccinated against COVID-19 and were randomly assigned to receive either azelastine nasal spray or a placebo.

The spray was used at least three times a day for more than 50 days. In cases of coronavirus exposure or symptoms, participants could increase the dose to five times daily for three days. On the sidelines, participants were also tested for COVID-19 with rapid antigen tests, or RATs, twice weekly.

According to the trial results, the groups with azelastine – around 2 per cent of the participants became infected with COVID-19 as compared to 7 per cent in the placebo group. Scientists said it meant that users of azelastine had nearly 70 per cent lower risk of getting infected with the virus.

There were also fewer symptomatic COVID-19 cases in the azelastine group. The trial also revealed that overall respiratory infections in the azelastine group were 9.3 per cent vs. 22 per cent in the placebo group.

More

Over-the-Counter Nasal Spray May Cut COVID-19 Risk by 70%, Study Finds

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Huasun achieves 34.02% efficiency for perovskite-heterojunction solar cell

The Chinese manufacturer said the result was achieved thanks to new perovskite crystallization additives and high-mobility carrier transport layer materials.

September 3, 2025

Chinese solar module maker Huasun claims to have achieved a power conversion efficiency of 34.02% for a 1 cm² tandem solar cell based on a perovskite top cell and a silicon heterojunction (HJT) bottom device.

The company did not say if the result was certified by an independent entity.

“At the laboratory level, the team innovatively introduced a dual passivation strategy combining physical field effects and chemical bonds, which significantly reduced interfacial non-radiative recombination losses,” Huasun stated. “At the same time, by applying new perovskite crystallization additives and high-mobility carrier transport layer materials, along with a series of material and process improvements, Huasun team achieved comprehensive optimization of grain orientation, energy level alignment, and interface stability—laying a solid foundation for further exploring efficiency limits.”

The manufacturer also claims to have achieved an efficiency of 29.01% in a large-sized cell with the same architecture on one of its production lines, without providing further details.

“This breakthrough was enabled by Huasun’s large-texture thin-film deposition technology, which ensures uniform coating on complex surfaces and overcomes key challenges in scaling perovskite materials,” it further explained. “By introducing organic stabilizers, Huasun improved deposition uniformity and environmental stability, while new interface transport materials enhanced reliability and process compatibility.”

More technical information about the cell design was not released.

In May 2024, Huasan achieved a 26.50% power conversion efficiency in an HJT solar cell based on a zero-busbar (0BB) module technology and silver-coated copper paste with low silver content.

Huasun achieves 34.02% efficiency for perovskite-heterojunction solar cell – pv magazine International

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

"To turn $100 into $110 is work. To turn $100 million into $110 million is inevitable."

Edgar Bronfman, Chairman, Seagrams .


Wednesday, 3 September 2025

Nuclear War Or Peace? That Rising SCO World. Will AI Ruin Our World?

 Baltic Dry Index. 1986 -38             Brent Crude 68.93

Spot Gold 3538                    US 2 Year Yield 3.66 +0.07

US Federal Debt. 37.312 trillion

US GDP 30.241 trillion.

September 3, 1939 - Britain, France, Australia and New Zealand declare war on Germany.

Little need for my input this morning.

Stocks largely down, AI bubble ending? Gold higher on US interest rate cut front running and rising international alarm on the rising US debt relative to the US GDP.

The Washington-London War Party facing a new reality after their failure in Ukraine.

Asia markets trade mixed as tariff concerns weigh

Published Tue, Sep 2 2025 7:40 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Wednesday as investors assessed rising global bond yields and the latest developments on the trade front.

Chinese markets were in focus following President Xi Jinping’s speech at a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. The event was graced by 26 world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index increased by 0.86%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 ticked up 0.24% in early trade.

Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark declined by 1.09%. The country’s second-quarter GDP grew 1.8% year over year, marking the fastest pace of growth since September 2023. The latest reading beat the 1.6% growth expected by economists polled by Reuters, and was higher than the 1.3% seen in the previous quarter.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.41%, while the broader Topix index dropped by 0.53%.

Yields on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) rose, with the yield on 10-year JGBs up 2.6 basis points to 1.629% as of 10:45 a.m. local time (9:45 p.m. ET Tuesday).

Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year JGBs increased by nearly 7 basis point to 3.279%, surpassing its previous high in August, while yields on 20-year JGBs rose around 5.3 basis points to 2.684%, after hitting its highest level in 26 years earlier in the session.

Over in South Korea, the Kospi index ticked up 0.3% choppy trade, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.19%.

U.S. equity futures mostly rose in early Asia hours, after a federal court ruling on an antitrust case on Google-parent Alphabet fueled optimism that tech majors will be able to navigate regulatory threats.

Overnight stateside, all three key benchmarks ended the day lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 249.07 points, or 0.55% to close at 45,295.81. The broad-based S&P 500 dropped 0.69% to settle at 6,415.54, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.82% to close at 21,279.63.

Asia markets trade mixed as tariff concerns weigh

China’s Xi says the world faces ‘peace or war’ as Trump claims Beijing conspiring against U.S.

Published Tue, Sep 2 2025 9:54 PM EDT

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping said Wednesday that the world was facing a choice of “peace or war” and “dialogues or confrontation” as the country hosts its largest military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

The speech came as U.S. President Donald Trump in a post on Truth Social urged the Chinese leader to recognize U.S. contributions to helping secure China’s freedom, while alleging that Beijing was conspiring against Washington.

“Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America,” Trump said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un are among the leaders from more than 20 countries attending the “Victory Day” military parade in Beijing at Tiananmen Square. China is hosting a reception following the parade, and an evening gala.

It is unlikely that the gathering of Putin and Kim in Beijing would derail the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks as both sides appeared to favor moving toward a deal in the coming months, said Neil Thomas, fellow for China politics at Asia Society.

That said, “the fact that China has this increased gravitational pull in regional diplomacy is telling about the progress that it [has] been able to make, especially when there’s increased uncertainty about whether Washington wants to do trade and investment deals with countries in Asia,” he added.

More

Xi says world faces 'peace or war' as Trump claims Beijing conspiring against U.S.

China hails ‘strategic ace’ deterrence as nuclear missiles, weapons roll through Beijing

Overseeing his third major military parade, Xi Jinping speaks to the nation and assembled world leaders before inspecting the troops

Published: 8:37am, 3 Sep 2025 Updated: 12:09pm, 3 Sep 2025

China has hosted a massive military parade along Changan Avenue in central Beijing, showcasing the country’s latest and most advanced weapons to commemorate the 80th anniversary of China’s victory over Japan in World War II.

President Xi Jinping delivered a speech from the Tiananmen rostrum and then inspected the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops from a parade car. It was the third major military parade in Tiananmen Square that Xi is overseeing as president.

World leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim were seated on the rostrum, along with serving and former top officials and generals.

Nuclear ‘strategic ace’ missiles

The PLA’s first air-launched nuclear missile, the JL-1, has been unveiled atop a military truck. This model is significantly smaller than the JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile, which is on show.

CCTV says that these two missiles, along with the DF-61 and DF-31, represent the “first concentrated display” of the PLA’s “land, sea and air triad strategic nuclear forces”, constituting a “strategic ace for safeguarding national sovereignty and defending national dignity”.

Deterrence ‘credible, reliable, sufficient’

Military blogger Ma Yan says the upgraded intercontinental ballistic missile DF-5C sends the message that “China’s strategic deterrence is credible, reliable and sufficient”.

The DF-5C can reportedly carry up to 10 multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle warheads, “meaning that a single missile can target 10 different locations at the same time”, she says on Chinese social media.

The missile can target “the enemy’s military bases and critical facilities”, and adjust the order of strikes.

“The DF-5C, although launched from fixed silos, has a longer range and a single warhead yield reaching millions of tonnes, primarily designed to target underground facilities and missile silos,” Ma says.

“Its existence strengthens our nuclear deterrent strategy, ensuring effective retaliatory strikes, even under the harshest war conditions.”

CCTV narration said the strike range of this model “covers the entire globe”.

Carrier-based aircraft

Four types of carrier-based aircraft have been on show, including the J-35 and J-15T.

According to state news agency Xinhua, the J-15T can take off using either a catapult or ski-jump launch system. The J-15DT is an electronic warfare carrier-based aircraft that can also launch using either system.

The J-35, the latest stealth carrier-based fighter, “is a landmark piece of equipment for the navy’s transition from near-sea defence to far-sea defence”, Xinhua says.

The J-15DH, J-15DT and J-35 were all independently developed by China, Xinhua says.

CCTV’s live broadcast indicates that China’s carrier-based aircraft have achieved “multi-aircraft coordination”.

The carrier-based aircraft formation is operated by China’s first carrier-based aviation brigade, Xinhua says.

----Interest in China’s deep-sea drones

Chinese military commentator Bai Mengchen says China’s latest extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (XLUUVs) are ideal for the country to counter threats in the deep sea, given the lessons of the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage.

“There was considerable interest in the several XLUUVs showcased, as their size suggests their strong capabilities to operate in deep sea,” Bai said during Phoenix TV’s live coverage of the parade.

“The deep sea is a cutting-edge area of multi-domain operations, attracting considerable attention. Previous experiences like the Nord Stream sabotage reminds us to be vigilant in this domain.”

More

China hails ‘strategic ace’ deterrence as nuclear missiles, weapons roll through Beijing | South China Morning Post

Trump says US strike on vessel in Caribbean targeted Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang, killed 11

Updated 1:56 AM GMT+1, September 3, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Tuesday the U.S. has carried out a strike in the southern Caribbean against a drug-carrying vessel that departed from Venezuela and was operated by the Tren de Aragua gang.

The president said in a social media posting that 11 people were killed in the rare U.S. military operation in the Americas, a dramatic escalation in the Republican administration’s effort to stem the flow of narcotics from Latin America. Trump also posted a short video clip of a small vessel appearing to explode in flames.

“The strike occurred while the terrorists were at sea in International waters transporting illegal narcotics, heading to the United States,” Trump said on Truth Social. “No U.S. Forces were harmed in this strike. Please let this serve as notice to anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States of America.”

The video appears to show a long, multi-engine speedboat traveling at sea when a bright flash of light bursts over the craft. The boat is then briefly seen covered in flames.

The video, which is largely in black and white, is not clear enough to see if the craft is carrying as many as 11 people. The video also did not show any large or clear stashes of drugs inside the boat.

Tren de Aragua originated more than a decade ago at an infamously lawless prison with hardened criminals in Venezuela’s central state of Aragua. The gang has expanded in recent years as more than 7.7 million Venezuelans fled economic turmoil and migrated to other Latin American countries or the U.S.

Trump and administration officials have repeatedly blamed the gang for being at the root of the violence and illicit drug dealing that plague some cities. And the president on Tuesday repeated his claim — contradicted by a declassified U.S. intelligence assessment — that Tren de Aragua is operating under Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s control.

The White House did not immediately explain how the military determined that those aboard the vessel were Tren de Aragua members. The size of the gang is unclear, as is the extent to which its actions are coordinated across state lines and national borders.

What Maduro had to say

After Trump announced the strike, Venezuelan state television showed Maduro and first lady Cilia Flores walking the streets of his childhood neighborhood. A television presenter said Maduro was “bathing in patriotic love” as he interacted with supporters.

“In the face of imperialist threats, God (is) with us,” Maduro told supporters.

Maduro did not address the strike directly, but charged that the U.S. is “coming for Venezuela’s riches,” including oil and gas. The South American country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

“From the neighborhoods of Caracas ... I tell you, there will be peace in Venezuela, with sovereignty,” he said.

Communications Minister Freddy Ñáñez questioned the veracity of the video. “Based on the video provided, it is very likely that it was created using Artificial Intelligence,” he said on his Telegram account. He couldn’t say what tools would have been used to create the video, but said it showed an “almost cartoonish animation, rather than a realistic depiction of an explosion.”

More

Trump says US struck Venezuelan gang's vessel, killing 11 | AP News

Up next, a rest of the world (ROW) fast getting less USA centric, with or without President Trump’s chaotic tariffs.

Forging growth together: China-SCO economic and trade partnership gains momentum

By Li Yingqi, Huan Xiang (People's Daily) 21:39, September 01, 2025

According to statistics recently released by China's General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, China's total imports and exports with other Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) members reached 2.11 trillion yuan ($295.04 billion), marking a 3 percent increase year on year, a record high for the period.

As cooperation deepens across trade, investment, connectivity, and other fields, the SCO is charting a path of mutual benefit and shared prosperity, injecting strong momentum into regional development.

On the shores of Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao, east China's Shandong province, the China-SCO Local Economic and Trade Cooperation Demonstration Area (SCODA) bustles with activity. Recent examples include a truck laden with fresh fruits and vegetables departing Qingdao's international road transport assembly center for Moscow (reaching its destination in under a week), and 388 new energy vehicles clearing customs at the SCO International Hub Port Automobile Trading Center before shipment to Dubai.

Such scenes vividly illustrate the SCODA's role as a dynamic hub where people, goods, and commerce converge.

The demonstration area traces its origins to Chinese President Xi Jinping's address at the 2018 SCO Qingdao Summit, where he announced that the Chinese government supports building a demonstration area in Qingdao for China-SCO local economic and trade cooperation. Since its inception, the area has been exploring innovative models of local cooperation.

For Li Zhenye, deputy general manager of Qingdao Hongzhu Agricultural Machinery Co., Ltd., the platform has delivered tangible results. "We have participated in the SCO International Investment and Trade Expo for four consecutive years. It has helped us build lasting connections with customers from many SCO countries. In 2024, we hosted nearly 50 business delegations from SCO members, and exports to other SCO and Belt and Road partner countries now account for more than 80 percent of our total," Li said.

According to Irfan Shahzad Takalvi, founder of the Eurasian Century Institute, a think tank in Islamabad, Pakistan, China has launched a series of cooperation platforms in recent years, facilitating the movement of goods, technology, and talent. These platforms have enabled SCO countries to share development experience, adopt mature technologies, and train professionals, promoting economic growth across the region," he noted.

A recent demonstration of enhanced connectivity occurred on May 20, when a China-Central Asia freight train departed Tianjin Port for Xinjiang's Horgo crossing. Carrying 50 containers from South Korea, it completed the journey in two weeks, reducing transit distance by 800 kilometers compared to the traditional route.

Today, Tianjin Port connects with over 500 ports in more than 180 countries and regions and has also expanded rail cooperation with SCO member states such as Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus, making it a vital bridge between the SCO and global markets.

By opening more efficient regional logistics corridors, strengthening resilient industrial and supply chains, and enhancing trade and investment cooperation, China and other SCO countries are steadily reaching new heights of practical economic engagement. In 2024, trade between China and SCO member states, observer states, and dialogue partners reached a record high of $890 billion, underscoring the dynamism and promising outlook of regional commerce.

The vibrancy of SCO economic and trade cooperation is equally evident at the Horgos International Border Cooperation Center on the China-Kazakhstan border. From Kazakh camel milk and Kyrgyz honey to Uzbek cherries and Tajik dried fruit, thousands of products from more than 40 countries fill the stalls of over 5,000 shops and 1,200 merchants. As the largest cross-border tourism and shopping zone in northwest China, it offers a vivid window into the flourishing economic cooperation between China and its SCO partners.

In the first seven months of this year, Horgos customs supervised 35,500 tons of goods with a total value of 3.65 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 50.1 percent and 37.7 percent year on year, respectively. The center also handled 5.69 million cross-border travelers, a 66 percent increase over the same period last year.

Behind this vitality are streamlined and efficient customs services. At the road port of Horgos, 24-hour customs clearance ensures the daily departure of over 1,000 trucks bound for Central Asia and Europe. Simplified procedures have reduced clearance steps by 60 percent, boosted vehicle throughput by 80 percent, and cut overall business costs by 50 percent. The city of Horgos is accelerating the development of a national land port logistics hub, continuously improving port functionality and clearance efficiency.

"The one-stop inspection model and round-the-clock appointment-based clearance have further enhanced cross-border trade efficiency, creating a fast track for deeper economic cooperation between China and other SCO countries," said Guo Ying, head of customs at the Horgos International Border Cooperation Center.

Forging growth together: China-SCO economic and trade partnership gains momentum - People's Daily Online

In other news, there will now be photographic trouble ahead.

Masterful photo edits now just take a few words. Are we ready for this?

For better or worse, Google’s Gemini chatbot just got an image manipulating upgrade.

September 1, 2025

Using artificial intelligence to create images out of whole cloth is nothing new. Using AI to strategically or even surgically manipulate genuine photos has always been trickier — until Google DeepMind leapfrogged the pack with a new tool.

Just ask, and its new Gemini Flash 2.5 Image model, available to play with inside Google’s Gemini chatbot can plop pets into new localesconvincingly colorize monochrome photos and even mark up points of interest in a cityscape.

We all have our share of photos that didn’t turn out quite right. Now editing them artfully no longer requires expertise — just a Google account and the willingness to play supervisor to an AI photo assistant. But how well do Gemini’s new image manipulation skills actually work? We put them to the test.

What it can do

Google’s new AI model — formerly known as “Nano Banana” — is especially interesting for a few reasons.

First, it’s fast. The updated Gemini often churns out edited images in under 30 seconds, while OpenAI’s ChatGPT 5 sometimes took more than three times as long to handle the same requests. (The Washington Post has a content partnership with OpenAI.)

It’s also really good at maintaining a consistent context — ask it to make changes to one part of an image, and it will keep the rest mostly untouched.

Consider this photo my wife took of me in a phone booth in Japan.

After receiving my simple prompt (“replace this man’s outfit with a bright orange tuxedo and a big showgirl’s headdress”), Gemini spit out this image where I am the only thing that has noticeably changed.

Look carefully enough and you’ll notice that the numbers on the phone’s keypad — along with some of the Japanese text littered throughout the scene — have been transmuted into AI gibberish. But all of the important scene-setting elements remain, even if you ask the AI to tweak the lighting and replace me with, say, a water buffalo:

Gemini is also notable for the way it treats the people in the images it edits: They're (mostly) recognizable as themselves in the results, even if you try to fine-tune those results with even more requests.

Here’s a photo I took of The Washington Post’s future of work reporter, Danielle Abril, before and after I asked Gemini to “surround the subject with neon lights and change the lighting of her face accordingly.”

----- And sometimes, the tool just doesn’t know how to deal with a request.

In the example below, I asked Gemini to colorize and sharpen this old, blurry photo of my grandfather — one of just a few my mom still has left after all these years.

Gemini’s first draft looked great in color, but according to my mom, it left my grandfather looking a little too young (middle photo). When I asked Gemini to make his face a little older and a touch more wrinkly, it spit out someone, who to me, looks completely different (right image).

Faux photo fallout

Gemini’s new model clearly isn’t perfect, but it’s fast, effective and accessible enough that people are cooking up ambitious ways to use it. Even so, facets of Google DeepMind’s approach to manipulating images have come as a surprise — and not necessarily a good one — to some AI researchers.

When Vincent Conitzer took Gemini’s new image skills for a spin, the first thing he asked it was to add Kim Kardashian to a photo of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift at a football game.

“My first reaction was, ‘Wow, that was fast and easy,” the Carnegie Mellon University professor of computer science told The Post. But then the surprise kicked in: Unlike other AI tools, Gemini offered “no pushback whatsoever” when asked to add the likeness of a real person to an otherwise genuine image, Contizer said.

More, plus photos.

How Gemini’s impressive ‘Nano Banana’ AI photo editor works - The Washington Post

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US Manufacturing Shrinks for Sixth Straight Month

September 2, 2025 at 11:25 PM GMT+1

US factory activity shrank in August for a sixth straight month, driven by a pullback in production that shows manufacturing remains bogged down by higher import duties tied to President Donald Trump’s trade war.

At the same time, there were a few positive signs. Orders expanded for the first time since the start of the year, with the ISM gauge of new bookings jumping 4.3 points, the largest increase since the beginning of 2024, to 51.4. A measure of prices paid for raw materials declined to 63.7—still elevated but the lowest since February. 


Still, the mixed report highlights the number of cross-currents facing the nation’s producers. While still experiencing higher costs as a result of levy hikes, manufacturers appear to be benefiting from solid business investment and resilient household demand.

But factories also are wrestling with supply chain disruptions related to Trump’s scattershot tariff orders and retreats—and now a court ruling deeming most of his levies illegal. The ISM supplier delivery gauge showed delivery times lengthened last month. Also, the group’s import index indicated a faster pace of contraction. Investors on Tuesday didn’t like the look of things, and stocks and bonds took a dive. Here’s your markets wrap

US Manufacturing Shrinks for Sixth Straight Month: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

Euro zone inflation rises to hotter-than-expected 2.1% in August

Published Tue, Sep 2 2025 5:06 AM EDT

Euro zone inflation edged higher to 2.1% in August, according to the latest flash data from statistics agency Eurostat on Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the rate to remain unchanged from July, at 2%.

Core inflation, which strips out more volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, was unchanged from 2.3% in July. The closely watched services print meanwhile was slightly lower in August, at 3.1% compared to 3.2% in July.

At 2.1%, the euro zone’s latest inflation rate is just slightly higher than the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.

The euro was down 0.6% against the dollar, at $1.1640. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was trading 0.7% lower Tuesday morning.

The central bank held its key interest rate at 2% in July and is expected to maintain that stance when it next meets in September, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters.

The EU’s trade deal with the U.S., signed in late July, has removed uncertainty over tariffs although there are some concerns that the blanket 15% duty of EU exports to the States could still weigh on economic activity.

The euro zone eked out 0.1% growth in the second quarter, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed in late July.

ECB rate pause likely

The slight uptick in headline inflation in August is unlikely to make much difference for policymakers at the ECB when they next meet, Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, noted Tuesday.

ECB policymakers “look certain to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting and probably for several months beyond that,” he said in emailed analysis.

“Most importantly for the ECB, services inflation also came down a touch, from 3.2% in July to 3.1% in August. This is the lowest rate of services inflation since March 2022 and should provide some reassurance for policymakers that domestic prices pressures are continuing to subside,” he said, predicting the services inflation would fall further in coming months as labor market conditions ease.

“We will preview the ECB’s forthcoming meeting later in the week but in short the Bank is likely to leave rates on hold for some time,” he said.

Irene Lauro, euro zone economist at Schroders, agreed that the ECB would take its time when considering the trajectory for interest rates.

“With trade uncertainty easing, the Eurozone recovery is set to gain momentum as firms ramp up borrowing and investment. In this environment, the ECB is likely to hold rates cautiously steady in September. The resilience in core inflation supports our view that policy normalisation has ended, and the ECB will closely monitor growth dynamics before making its next move,” she said in emailed comments.

Euro zone inflation for August 2025

UK manufacturing downturn worsens amid slump in new orders

1 September 2025

The downturn in UK factory production worsened last month due to a fall in new orders and export business due to trade tensions, according to new figures.

The S&P Global UK manufacturing PMI survey, watched closely by economists, showed a reading of 47.0 in August, slowing from 48.0 in July.

Any reading above 50 indicates that activity is growing while any score below means it is contracting.

It was marginally worse than expected, with economists having predicted a reading of 47.3.

The figures were the worst for three months and represented a setback for the sector after signs of recovering activity earlier in the summer.

Rob Dobson, director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said firms witnessed a “steep drop” in new orders over August.

He said: “Weak market conditions, US tariffs and downbeat client confidence all contributed to the dearth of new contract wins.

“Job cuts were also reported for a tenth successive month, with factory headcounts dropping to one of the greatest extents post-pandemic.”

The research showed new orders contracted “at the fastest pace in four months”, with manufacturers linking the decline to subdued client confidence and caution regarding costs following recent minimum wage and national insurance contribution increases.

New export business also decreased for the 43rd consecutive month as concerns over tariffs and wider trade tension impacted demand.

Nevertheless, surveyed companies indicated that business optimism was at its strongest level for six months, with firms predicting stronger production over the coming year.

Firms indicated that uncertainty led to further cutbacks in employment last month, with a reduction in jobs for the tenth month in a row.

Mike Thornton, head of industrials at RSM UK, said: “The latest fall in the manufacturing PMI reversed a three-month upward trend with a sharp fall in new orders dragging down the headline figure.

“We tend to see a slight drop-off in new orders seasonally as the summer holidays hit, but the fall this year was sharper than previous years.

“Hopefully it’s a seasonal blip and we will see further signs of a recovery later in the year.”

UK manufacturing downturn worsens amid slump in new orders

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

'Vibe hacking' puts chatbots to work for cybercriminals

Paris (AFP) – The potential abuse of consumer AI tools is raising concerns, with budding cybercriminals apparently able to trick coding chatbots into giving them a leg-up in producing malicious programmes.

Issued on: 02/09/2025 - 08:01

So-called "vibe hacking" -- a twist on the more positive "vibe coding" that generative AI tools supposedly enable those without extensive expertise to achieve -- marks "a concerning evolution in AI-assisted cybercrime" according to American company Anthropic.

The lab -- whose Claude product competes with the biggest-name chatbot, ChatGPT from OpenAI -- highlighted in a report published Wednesday the case of "a cybercriminal (who) used Claude Code to conduct a scaled data extortion operation across multiple international targets in a short timeframe".

Anthropic said the programming chatbot was exploited to help carry out attacks that "potentially" hit "at least 17 distinct organizations in just the last month across government, healthcare, emergency services, and religious institutions".

The attacker has since been banned by Anthropic.

Before then, they were able to use Claude Code to create tools that gathered personal data, medical records and login details, and helped send out ransom demands as stiff as $500,000.

Anthropic's "sophisticated safety and security measures" were unable to prevent the misuse, it acknowledged.

Such identified cases confirm the fears that have troubled the cybersecurity industry since the emergence of widespread generative AI tools, and are far from limited to Anthropic.

"Today, cybercriminals have taken AI on board just as much as the wider body of users," said Rodrigue Le Bayon, who heads the Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) at Orange Cyberdefense.

Dodging safeguards

Like Anthropic, OpenAI in June revealed a case of ChatGPT assisting a user in developing malicious software, often referred to as malware.

The models powering AI chatbots contain safeguards that are supposed to prevent users from roping them into illegal activities.

But there are strategies that allow "zero-knowledge threat actors" to extract what they need to attack systems from the tools, said Vitaly Simonovich of Israeli cybersecurity firm Cato Networks.

He announced in March that he had found a technique to get chatbots to produce code that would normally infringe on their built-in limits.

The approach involved convincing generative AI that it is taking part in a "detailed fictional world" in which creating malware is seen as an art form -- asking the chatbot to play the role of one of the characters and create tools able to steal people's passwords.

"I have 10 years of experience in cybersecurity, but I'm not a malware developer. This was my way to test the boundaries of current LLMs," Simonovich said.

His attempts were rebuffed by Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude, but got around safeguards built into ChatGPT, Chinese chatbot Deepseek and Microsoft's Copilot.

In future, such workarounds mean even non-coders "will pose a greater threat to organisations, because now they can... without skills, develop malware," Simonovich said.

Orange's Le Bayon predicted that the tools were likely to "increase the number of victims" of cybercrime by helping attackers to get more done, rather than creating a whole new population of hackers.

"We're not going to see very sophisticated code created directly by chatbots," he said.

Le Bayon added that as generative AI tools are used more and more, "their creators are working on analysing usage data" -- allowing them in future to "better detect malicious use" of the chatbots.

'Vibe hacking' puts chatbots to work for cybercriminals

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The stock market is but a mirror which provides an image of the underlying or fundamental economic situation. Cause and effect run from the economy to the stock market, never the reverse. In 1929 the economy was headed for trouble. Eventually that trouble was violently reflected in Wall Street.

John Kenneth Galbraith