Tuesday, 13 May 2025

Trump Folds, US Markets Soar. Others Mixed. A Big Win For China.

Baltic Dry Index. 1304 +05         Brent Crude 64.81

Spot Gold 3251               US 2 Year Yield 3.98 +0.10

US Federal Debt. 36.842 trillion!!!

There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.

Andrew Mellon. US Treasury Secretary, 1929.

After Trump’s trade team folded in Geneva to China, US stock casinos soared as if Trump’s trade team had won.

Other stock casinos aren’t so sure. First off, what happens after 90 days?  Won’t this capitulation just embolden others? US consumers are still going to pay more for Chinese goods and parts.

Is this another sign of the rise of China and decline of the USA?

Time will tell, albeit in just 90 days.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed after Wall Street’s massive rally on U.S.-China trade deal

Updated Tue, May 13 2025 12:23 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday, following Wall Street’s massive rally on the back of a trade deal between the U.S. and China, which includes a 90-day pause on tariffs and a drop in reciprocal tariffs by 115 percentage points.

Analysts at Japanese investment bank Nomura have now upgraded Chinese equities to a “tactical overweight.”

The agreement to temporarily reduce tariffs “came as a significant surprise for markets, and will likely support risk positivity in the near term,” Chetan Seth, Asia-Pacific equity strategist at the bank wrote in a Tuesday note.

“While markets have been expecting some reduction in tariffs over the past few days, we think this reduction is much larger than expected and will bring a major relief for global (including Asian) stocks,” they added.

Nomura trimmed its overweight stance on India to fund the China upgrade.

Hong Kong stocks fell sharply, with the Hang Seng Index declining 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index plunging 3.06%. This was a reversal from the strong gains both indexes logged in the previous session. Meanwhile, mainland China’s CSI 300 index was flat.

Indian markets fell at the open with the benchmark Nifty 50 down 0.34% while the BSE Sensex index lost 0.39%. This is a reversal from the significant gains in the previous session, when Indian markets posted their best one-day gain since February 2021, following optimism over the India—Pakistan ceasefire.

Over in Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 surged 1.71%, while the broader Topix index advanced 1.28%.

South Korea’s Kospi index was flat while the small-cap Kosdaq added 1.15%.

In Australia, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.51%.

U.S. stock futures fell after all three key benchmarks hit their best day since April 9, as investors awaited the release of an inflation report.

Overnight stateside, stocks soared as investors’ fears of a recession in the U.S., sparked by a trade war with China, were abated after the two superpowers arrived at a deal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,160.72 points, or 2.81%, and closed at 42,410.10. The 30-stock index ended the session near its highs of the day, with buying enthusiasm remaining strong.

Meanwhile, the broad-based S&P 500 popped 3.26% to end at 5,844.19, giving it gains of over 20% since its April intraday low at the height of tariff pessimism. The benchmark’s year-to-date losses have now narrowed to just 0.6%.

The Nasdaq Composite added 4.35% and settled at 18,708.34, as the details of the trade deal sent technology stocks with exposure to China — like Tesla and Apple — higher.

Asia markets live: Stocks trade mixed

European markets set to open in mixed territory as trade uncertainty lingers

Updated Tue, May 13 2025 12:23 AM EDT

European markets are heading for a mixed open on Tuesday as uncertainty over the global trade outlook lingers despite a 90-day pause in the tariff spat between the U.S. and China.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 4 points lower at 8,591, Germany’s DAX up 23 points at 23,569, France’s CAC 3 points lower at 7,834 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 30 points lower at 39,222, according to data from IG.

Global markets rallied on Monday after news that Washington and Beijing agreed to slash steep tariffs for 90 days, raising hopes that a burgeoning trade war could be averted.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight, however, setting the more pessimistic tone for their European counterparts, as questions remain over what could happen after the 90-day pause.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures fell in overnight trading as investors await the latest U.S. inflation reading ahead of producer price index data on Thursday.

European markets will be keeping an eye on earnings from SoftBankTata MotorsNissanHondaMetro Bank and Bayer. Data releases include U.K. retail sales and unemployment figures. Germany’s ZEW survey of economic sentiment is also due to be released.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings

Markets Soar After US-China Tariffs Scaled Back

May 12, 2025 at 11:26 PM GMT+1

Xi Jinping’s decision to stand his ground against Donald Trump paid dividends to the Chinese leader Monday. After two days of high-stakes talks in Switzerland, trade negotiators from the world’s biggest economies announced a massive if temporary de-escalation of tariffs, with the US slashing duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% and Beijing dropping its levy on most goods to 10%.

The US administration began to retreat on promised levies and make public entreaties to Beijing shortly after markets nosedived in response to Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff rollout on April 2. The retaliation that followed the announcement had taken duties to levels that for many companies effectively blocked trade, causing widespread uncertainty and fueling warnings of a self-induced US recession.

The dramatic reduction in tariffs exceeded expectations in China and sent the dollar and stocks soaring—providing some much-needed market relief for the US president, who is facing pressure as inflation looks set to speed up at home. China equities also surged as the deal—though only a 90-day delay—ended up meeting nearly all of the Chinese president’s core demands. The “reciprocal” tariff for China, which Trump set at 34%, has been suspended—leaving America’s top rival with the same 10% rate that applies to US allies like the UK.

“This is arguably the best outcome that China could have hoped for—the US backed down,” said Trey McArver, co-founder of research firm Trivium China. “Going forward, this will make the Chinese side confident that they have leverage over the US in any negotiations.” Natasha Solo-Lyons and David E. Rovella

Markets Soar After US-China Tariffs Scaled Back: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg

U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough

Published Mon, May 12 2025 3:16 AM EDT

The U.S. and China on Monday agreed to temporarily suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods in a move that shows a major thawing of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

The trade agreement means that “reciprocal” tariffs between both countries will be cut from 125% to 10%. The U.S.′ 20% duties on Chinese imports relating to fentanyl will remain in place, meaning total tariffs on China stand at 30%.

The breakthrough comes after U.S. and China trade representatives held high-stakes talks in Switzerland over the weekend.

“We had very productive talks and I believe that the venue, here in Lake Geneva, added great equanimity to what was a very positive process,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a news conference.

“We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially move down the tariff levels. Both sides on the reciprocal tariffs will move their tariffs down 115%,” Bessent said.

Both China and the U.S. said they will continue discussions on economic and trade policy.

Investors were buoyed by news of the tariff reprieve. Stateside, Nasdaq futures pointed to a 3.6% gain, with the S&P 500 futures higher by 2.8% and Dow up by nearly 1,000 points, or 2.3%.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index also rose sharply. The index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of global currencies, was last up 1.3% to 101.63.

Elsewhere, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.7% during early morning deals.

Oil prices also popped. International benchmark Brent crude futures with July expiry traded over 2.3% higher at $65.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $62.49, up 2.4% for the session.

‘Keeps the pressure on’

Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said the magnitude of the U.S.-China tariff reduction was larger than expected.

“This reflects both sides recognizing the economic reality that tariffs will hit global growth and negotiation is a better option going forward,” Hui said in a research note.

“The 90-day period may not be sufficient for the two sides to reach a detailed agreement, but it keeps the pressure on the negotiation process,” he added.

Hui noted that investors were still waiting for further details on other trade terms, such as whether China would relax rare earth export restrictions.

U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough

China sees the U.S. trade deal as a huge win for Beijing

Published Mon, May 12 2025 3:28 PM EDT Updated Mon, May 12 2025 6:04 PM EDT

Chinese officials, influencers and state-run media on Monday were casting the initial trade agreement and 90-day tariff pause with the U.S. as a victory and a vindication of Beijing’s negotiating strategy.

They are arguing that their defiant public posture worked and was a major reason they were able to strike a deal with U.S. officials in Switzerland with relatively few concessions.

“China’s firm countermeasures and resolute stance have been highly effective,” said a social media account linked to China’s national broadcaster CCTV.

In the eyes of the Chinese public, negotiators from Beijing appear to have convinced President Donald Trump’s administration to roll back most of the 145% tariff rate that Trump imposed, and slash them to 30%.

In exchange, China pledged to roll back most of the countertariffs it announced against the U.S.

On social media, Chinese users are touting the deal. One hashtag, #USChinaSuspending24%TariffsWithin90Days, already has 420 million views on Weibo.

The line refers to a 24% figure cited near the top of the joint statement Washington and Beijing released.

In total, the 90-day pause drops U.S. import duties from 145% to 30% on Chinese goods, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.

A Chinese social media user, Chun Feng Yi Ran, posted: “Our ancestors didn’t cave in, why should we give up what we have?” The comment now has thousands of likes.

Beijing is also using the trade deal to try to argue to the world that it is a responsible trading partner, even as China’s negotiating playbook has often been a point a frustration for the international business community and trading partners.

More

China sees U.S. trade deal as win for Beijing

Trump might claim China tariff victory – but this is Capitulation Day

Heather Stewart Economics editor

Donald Trump will inevitably claim Monday’s temporary truce in the US-China trade war as a victory, but financial markets seem to have read it for what it is – a capitulation.

Stocks were up and bond yields were higher after the US treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s early morning press conference in Geneva, where he has been holding talks with China.

As with the UK “trade deal” last week, the US is not reverting to the status quo before Trump arrived in the White House.

Instead, tariffs on Chinese goods will be cut from 145% to 30% – initially for a 90-day period. In return, China has cut its own tariffs on US imports to 10%, from the 125% it had imposed in retaliation against the White House.

That still marks a big shift in the terms of trade between the two countries since before Trump came to power, but falls far short of what was in effect a trade embargo.

The two sides have pledged to keep talking, but there was no reference in the statement put out by the White House to other gripes it has previously raised about China, including the weakness of the yuan.

Instead, the statement hailed “the importance of a sustainable, long-term and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship”. The language was rather different to Trump’s Liberation Day speech, about the US being “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far”.

In other words, the president has caved. He may have been swayed by market wobbles but it seems more plausible that dire warnings from retailers about empty shelves – backed up by data showing shipments into US ports collapsing – may have strengthened the hands of trade moderates in the administration.

Confronted with warnings of a shortage of toys, Trump told reporters that children should be happy with “two dolls instead of 30 dolls”, and they might “cost a couple bucks more” than usual. But it is difficult to imagine even this most bullish of presidents withstanding the attacks that would come his way if he began to be seen as responsible for Covid-style shortages of key goods in the world’s largest economy.

More

Trump might claim China tariff victory – but this is Capitulation Day | Trump tariffs | The Guardian

In other news.

Lutnick says 10% baseline tariff will stick around for “foreseeable future”

Published Sun, May 11 2025 10:27 AM EDT

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the 10% baseline tariff rate on imports from other countries is likely to “be in place for the foreseeable future,” echoing President Donald Trump’s comments from days prior.

“We do expect a 10% baseline tariff to be in place for the foreseeable future,” Lutnick told CNN’s Dana Bash on ‘State of the Union.’

The commerce secretary rejected the idea that consumers would take on increased costs caused by the tariffs, insisting that business and countries will pay.

But data suggests that businesses are already trying to pass costs onto consumers, and consumer confidence has plunged in the weeks since the president’s April 2 tariff announcement. The prices of some household items have also already ticked up.

“Businesses, their job is to try to sell to the American consumer, and domestically produced products are not going to have that tariff, so the foreigners are going to finally have to compete,” Lutnick said.

Lutnick’s comments came days after Trump said from the White House that the 10% tariff rate will likely be the floor for trade deals, and the rate could be “much higher” for some countries.

The United States reached a trade agreement with the United Kingdom last week, but the 10% baseline tariff still applies to most goods imported to the U.S.

Trump also suggested that the 10% baseline number on products from the United Kingdom is a “low number.”

“They made a good deal,” Trump said of the United Kingdom.

“Some will be much higher because they have massive trade surpluses,” he also said.

Trump official says 10% tariffs will stick around

Nissan job cuts double to 20,000 in overhaul

12 May 2025

Nissan Motor Co. will eliminate 11,000 more jobs than it previously planned, Japan’s national broadcaster reported Monday, as part of a plan to restructure its flailing business.

The Japanese automaker said in November it would cut 9,000 positions after weak sales in the US and China led to a 94% drop in first-half net income. Now, those job cuts will be nearer to 20,000, or around 15% of the entire workforce, NHK said, citing people that it didn’t identify.

Nissan declined to comment.

Since November, things have just gotten worse for Nissan. An outdated product line-up and bloated dealership incentives have forced it to reduce production capacity and overhaul its executive leadership and in April, Nissan said it will post a net loss of as much as ¥750 billion ($5.1 billion) for last fiscal year, a record annual deficit.

Nissan is due to announce on May 13 its full-year results for the 12 months ended March 31.

Nissan job cuts double to 20,000 in overhaul

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Hot Money Monday: Stagflation’s ghosts are real – Powell admits it and experts say hedge fast

12 May 2025

For months, whispers of stagflation circled Wall Street like ghosts in the corridors – visible enough to spook, but never quite real enough to confront.

But last week, Fed boss Jerome Powell said the word out loud.

“Stagflation” isn’t just a tail risk anymore – it’s here, it’s real, and the Fed is not pretending otherwise anymore.

“The Fed has just confirmed what we’ve been warning clients about for more than three months,” said Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory giant deVere Group.

Green said the warning lights have been flashing: slower economic growth, higher inflation and unemployment ticking upwards.

Those three ingredients, when tossed together in the economic pot, make a bitter stew called stagflation.

And this time, Powell pointed the finger squarely at trade policies, specifically, Donald Trump’s barrage of tariffs.

“When you weigh rising prices against declining productivity, and then throw in trade wars, the result is a stagnating economy with no good choices.

“That’s the definition of stagflation, and now the Fed is saying it, too,” Green added.

The Fed’s honesty is late, but welcome, Green quipped.

“Investors can’t wait around for policy clarity from Washington. The time to hedge, reposition and diversify was yesterday, but the next best time is now.”

More

Hot Money Monday: Stagflation’s ghosts are real – Powell admits it and experts say hedge fast 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Argo Expands Strategy with Graphene Leaders Canada to Explore Graphene-Infused Asphalt Innovations

Newsfile Corp.  Mon, May 12, 2025 at 8:01 AM GMT+1 

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - May 12, 2025) - Argo Living Soils Corp. (CSE: ARGO) (OTCQB: ARLSF) (FSE: 94Y0) ("Argo" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that, following our May 5, 2025 news release regarding the research and development ("R&D") agreement with Graphene Leaders Canada Inc. ("GLC"), Argo is now in discussions to expand its R&D agreement to include the development of graphene-infused asphalt solutions. This initiative reflects Argo's commitment to advancing eco-friendly, high-performance materials for industrial applications.

The expanded agreement will leverage GLC's advanced graphene nanoplatelet ("GNP") dispersion capabilities alongside Argo's expertise in sustainable technology to explore the potential of graphene-infused asphalt for infrastructure applications. The focus will be on research and development to design and test graphene GNP formulations for asphalt, with independent testing planned to assess performance. Graphene, a carbon-based nanomaterial known for its exceptional strength, conductivity, and flexibility, presents significant advantages for asphalt applications. Successful results could pave the way for commercial-scale trials.

The global asphalt market, valued at approximately USD 82 billion in 2023, is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% through 2030, driven by increasing infrastructure investments and demand for sustainable construction materials. Graphene-infused asphalt has the potential to capture a significant share of this market by offering enhanced durability and reduced environmental impact, addressing the needs of municipalities, developers, and governments worldwide.

"We are excited to expand our relationship with Graphene Leaders Canada to explore the transformative potential of graphene-infused asphalt," said Robert Intile, CEO of Argo Living Soils Inc. "This project builds on our commitment to sustainable innovation, aiming to deliver stronger, greener infrastructure solutions that address the evolving needs of the construction industry."

About Argo Living Soils Inc.

Founded in 2018, Argo Living Soils Corp. is dedicated to pioneering sustainable solutions in agriculture and construction. With a focus on organic product development and advanced technologies like biochar and graphene, Argo strives to reduce global carbon emissions while delivering innovative, eco-friendly products.

For further information, please contact:
Robert Intile, CEO
Argo Living Soils Corp.
Email: 
robert.intile@argolivingsoils.com
Phone: 604-763-4017

Argo Expands Strategy with Graphene Leaders Canada to Explore Graphene-Infused Asphalt Innovations

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The Great Depression in the United States, far from being a sign of the inherent instability of the private enterprise system, is a testament to how much harm can be done by mistakes on the part of a few men when they wield vast power over the monetary system of the country.

Milton Friedman 

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