Saturday, 3 May 2025

Special Update 03/05/2025 US Jobs, The Top. US Stocks, The Top?

Baltic Dry Index. 1421 +10            Brent Crude 61.29

Spot Gold 3240                  U S 2 Year Yield 3.83 +0.13

US Federal Debt. 36.801 trillion!!!

“if the U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs.”

China, 1 May 2025

The US and global economies are drinking in the last chance saloon. Unless President Trump reverses his tariff war follies and almost immediately, an unstoppable just in time supply chain crash is about to plunge life as we know it into Great Depression 2.0.

At least, that’s dinosaur Graeme’s assessment of the folly of trying to undo 50 years of globalisation and outsourcing in a few days and weeks.

From here on out, incoming hard economic statistics get increasingly dire. Just don’t let on to the deluded gamblers in the stock casinos, who think China just kowtowed to Donald Trump. 

I don’t think China kowtows to anyone in the 21st century. Besides, it was Donald Trump that begged China to start trade talks with Trump’s USA. Who’s kowtowing to who?

Dinosaur Graeme thinks it all falls apart fast from here on out .Look away from that collapsing oil price, US Treasury yield curve  and soaring US federal debt, now.

Dow jumps 500 points, S&P 500 posts longest win streak in 20 years as stocks claw back tariff losses: Live updates

Updated Fri, May 2 2025 4:22 PM EDT

Stocks rose on Friday as Wall Street digested a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for April, which eased recession fears and lifted the S&P 500 for its longest winning streak in just over two decades.

The S&P 500 advanced 1.47% and closed at 5,686.67. This marked the broad market index’s ninth consecutive day of gains and its longest winning run since November 2004. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 564.47 points, or 1.39%, to end at 41,317.43. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.51% and settled at 17,977.73. With Friday’s surge, the S&P 500 has now recovered its losses since April 2, when President Donald Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs. This comes a day after the tech-heavy Nasdaq accomplished the same feat.

Payrolls grew by 177,000 in April, above the 133,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated. That figure was still down sharply from the 228,000 added in March but much better than feared after recession worries ramped up last month. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, in line with expectations.

“Markets breathed a sigh of relief this morning as the jobs data came in better than expected,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “While recession fears are still simmering on the back burner, the buy-the-dip dynamic can continue – at least until the tariff pause runs out.”

Investors were already upbeat prior to the strong jobs report after China said that it is evaluating the possibility of starting trade negotiations with the U.S. Still, Chinese authorities reaffirmed their belief that the U.S. should remove all unilateral tariffs, saying in a statement that “if the U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs.” Later in the day, a report from The Wall Street Journal suggested that Beijing is open to trade talks.

The Street was also mulling over earnings reports from two “Magnificent Seven” members. Apple slid 3.7% after posting fiscal second-quarter revenue from its services division that fell short against analyst estimates. Additionally, the iPhone maker said it expects to add $900 million in costs in the current quarter due to tariffs. Amazon shares, meanwhile, were marginally lower after the company issued light guidance, highlighting “tariffs and trade policies” as factors.

“We’ve already seen how financial markets will react if the administration moves forward with their initial tariff plan, so unless they take a different tack in July when the 90-day pause expires, we will see market action similar to the first week of April,” Zaccarelli also said.

Stocks have made an incredible comeback since Trump announced last month that’s he’s temporarily reducing his new tariff rates for most countries to 10% for 90 days. The market has especially picked up steam lately, leading to the S&P 500′s winning streak, as solid earnings have come out.

All three major averages posted their second positive week in a row. The S&P 500 added 2.9%, sitting more than 7% below its February high after at one point being down nearly 20%. The Dow posted a 3% advance on the week, while the Nasdaq added 3.4%.

Stock market news for May 2, 2025

Employers Added 177,000 Jobs in April Despite Tariff Uncertainty

​Hiring slowed slightly from March​’s pace, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%

Updated May 2, 2025 4:33 pm ET

The U.S. labor market steadily added jobs last month despite jolting tariff announcements that many economists expect will give way to a trade policy-induced slowdown later this year.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, above the gain of 133,000 jobs that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see. The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey from the jobs figures, held steady at 4.2%.

The report revealed solid data “that no one wants to trust,” said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at investment bank Jefferies. That is because the figures likely reflected staffing decisions made in February and March, before President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements early in the month that induced significant market volatility.

Many business leaders are also likely betting that Trump will blink when it comes to some of his proposed policies. The president announced sweeping tariffs on April 2, then paused many of them on April 9. He implied later in the month that he would fire the Federal Reserve chair, then said he had “no intention” of doing so.

Stocks closed higher Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 notching nine straight days of gains. Signs of a potential thaw in the trade relations between China and the U.S. also lifted stocks.

Trump, who has said that tariffs will make America richer and bring manufacturing back to the U.S., took a victory lap on his Truth Social platform. “Employment strong, and much more good news, as Billions of Dollars pour in from Tariffs,” he posted. “Just like I said, and we’re only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!!”

Still, the fast-changing policies from Washington could soon begin to take the momentum out of the jobs market, economists said. 

“There’s a lot of anxiety about what tariffs mean for supply chains,” said James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial Markets. “The longer that this uncertainty lasts for, the more cautious businesses become about hiring and investment.”

The time frame of the jobs survey only captures so much. The Labor Department asks employers how many people they had on their payrolls during any pay period that includes the 12th of the month. That provides a limited look at companies’ early thinking on how to adjust to sudden tariff announcements.

In earnings calls over the past few weeks, companies have complained of the high degree of instability created by tariffs, and some companies are rethinking their entire business strategies. Many, including General Motors and JetBlue Airways, withdrew their earnings guidance for the year.

Relatively few have talked about the need for layoffs. Many appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to cutting workers. For some, the reluctance stems from having worked so hard to staff up during and right after the Covid pandemic.

Still, nervous companies could choose to simply put hiring on hold.

What’s more, businesses and individuals are telling surveys that they are worried about the economy. Consumer sentiment in April hit one of its lowest levels on record, according to the University of Michigan.

The pace of April’s job gains was lower than the 185,000 jobs added in March. The gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 58,000 jobs. Hourly wages grew by less than expected compared with both a month ago and a year ago. 

Some of April’s job gains may have been driven by the burst of activity that occurred as companies worked to get in front of tariffs, said Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs. Employment in the transportation and warehousing sector rose by 29,000 jobs last month.

Those gains could get unwound: Data from job-search site Indeed show that a surge in job openings for loading and stocking workers earlier in the year reversed itself by April. 

Healthcare, financial activities and social assistance all added jobs in April. Federal-government employment declined by 9,000 jobs, the third month in a row of job losses there.

However, those losses don’t reflect the magnitude of the massive job cuts announced by the Trump administration. Many federal workers are on paid leave or still getting severance pay, and therefore still counted as employed. Ongoing lawsuits and court orders have also slowed those layoffs.

More

U.S. Employers Added 177,000 Jobs in April, Report Shows Unemployment Stayed at 4.2% - WSJ

Euro zone inflation unchanged at 2.2% in April, leaving path open for further ECB interest rate cuts

Published Fri, May 2 2025 5:04 AM EDT

Euro zone inflation was unchanged at 2.2% in April, missing expectations for a move lower, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting the reading to come in at 2.1% in April compared to March’s 2.2% as inflation has been easing back towards the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, accelerated to 2.7% from March’s 2.4%. The closely-watched services inflation print also picked up again, coming in at 3.9% compared to the previous 3.5% reading.

The euro was higher against the U.S. dollar and the British pound following the data release. Bond yields were little changed, with the yield on 10-year German bonds continuing to trade around 3 basis points higher.

The increase in services inflation was likely “driven mainly by Easter timing effects,” Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. These effects would reverse in the coming month, she added, suggesting that this left the door open for further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

“We think the services rate will decline significantly in the rest of this year as US tariffs weigh on activity and the labour market continues to weaken,” Palmas added.

Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, meanwhile urged caution, saying tariff uncertainty meant “any level of comfort we have here is precarious.” A further escalation of tariff tensions would mean a pick-up of inflation in Europe, he said.

Field added that further ECB rate cuts were still on the table. “This relatively low level of headline inflation keeps the pressure off the ECB, who can in turn lower interest rates further,” he said.

More

Euro zone inflation, April 2025

Trump’s tariffs cause major car brand to lose billions across supply chain impacting millions

2 May 2025

General Motors has warned that it expects to take a near $5billion (£3.7billion) hit from President Donald Trump's controversial auto tariffs.

The US manufacturing giant said it now expects to offset "at least" 30 per cent of the tariff impact through "self-help" measures that include quickly adjusting its production and supply chain footprint.

Bracing for the impact of the tariff, GM has updated its adjusted earnings range to between $10billion (£7.5billion) and $12.5billion (£9.4billion), down from the earlier projection of $13.7billion (£10.3billion) to $15.7billion (£11.8billion).

The company said it is also reviewing its "entire footprint" as it adapts to the new trade policy environment, which could risk impacting the supply chain.

The impact includes an estimated $2billion (£1.5billion) in tariffs on finished vehicles from South Korea, where GM manufactures several value-priced models, including the popular Chevrolet Trax SUV.

In a letter to shareholders this week, CEO Mary Barra stated that despite the tariff challenges, GM's business remains "fundamentally strong" as it adapts to the new trade policy environment.

The company noted it gained almost two per cent of US market share year-on-year in the first quarter, with incentives remaining below the industry average and inventories staying low.

Barra also held discussions with Trump and his administration this week, which were seen as "very productive," praising the White House's recent move to temper tariffs on auto parts.

Barra said these actions advance "our shared goals of growing the US auto industry, which will be good for America in the long term".

In a letter to shareholders, Barra also expressed gratitude to Trump "for his support of the US automotive industry," particularly in helping US manufacturers.

"We have had continual discussions with the President and his team since before the inauguration," Barra wrote, noting the administration has "invested the time to understand what it takes to be successful in this capital-intensive and highly competitive global industry".

The company revealed it will also work with auto suppliers to boost their US-supplied content for GM vehicles, Barra indicated.

She noted that GM has "excess capacity" at manufacturing facilities in the US, making adjustments faster to implement at existing factories.

Trump's tariff policy includes a two-year grace period designed to encourage companies to move supply chains to the United States.

Under this policy, companies importing parts for vehicles assembled in the US would be able to offset 3.75 per cent of a vehicle's list price in the first year and 2.5 per cent in the second year.

However, Trump has not taken steps to mitigate a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports, which affects GM vehicles made in Canada and Mexico.

More

Trump’s tariffs cause major car brand to lose billions across supply chain impacting millions of jobs

Finally, how to/not to elect a Pope.

Doves, deaths and rations: Papal elections over time

27 April 2025

Cardinals electing Pope Francis's successor will have an easier time than many of their predecessors, who endured spartan conditions and were even locked up so long that some of them died.

Here are some notable papal elections through the ages.

- The dove decides -

In 236, the Christian community of Rome was debating potential papal candidates when a white dove landed on the head of a bystander, Fabian.

"At this, everyone, as if moved by a single divine inspiration, eagerly and wholeheartedly called out that Fabian was worthy," according to Eusebius, a Church historian of the era.

The blessing was a mixed one for Fabian, who died 14 years later a martyr, persecuted by Emperor Decius.

- Large-scale bribery -

In the early Church, popes were elected by members of the clergy and the Roman nobility, and the votes were rife with meddling.

One of the most infamous elections was in 532, following the death of Boniface II, which involved "large-scale bribing of royal officials and influential senators", according to P.G. Maxwell-Stuart in "Chronicle of the Popes".

In the end, an ordinary priest was elected, Mercurius. He became the first pope to change his name -- to John.

In 1059, Nicholas II gave cardinals sole authority to choose pontiffs.

- Lock them up -

The idea of locking up the cardinals to encourage a quick decision began in the 13th century -- the word conclave comes from the Latin phrase meaning "with key".

In 1241, when the election was dragging on, the head of Rome's government locked the cardinals into a dilapidated building and refused to clean the lavatories or provide doctors for those who fell ill. 

According to Frederic Baumgartner in his "Behind Locked Doors: A History of the Papal Elections", the cardinals only reached a decision after one of them died and the Romans threatened to exhume his corpse and have it make decisions.

After 70 days, they agreed on Goffredo Castiglioni, who became Celestine IV. 

- Three years -

The longest conclave in history lasted almost three years following the death of Clement IV in November 1268, held in the papal palace at Viterbo, near Rome.

From late 1269 the cardinals allowed themselves to be locked in to try to reach a decision, and by June 1270, frustrated locals tore the roof off in a bid to speed things along.

They were apparently inspired by a quip by an English cardinal that without the roof, the Holy Spirit could descend unhindered.

Teobaldo Visconti became pope Gregory X in September 1271.

More

Doves, deaths and rations: Papal elections over time

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.        

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

How much of a typical US household is made in America?

30 Apr 2025

Step inside a typical American home, and you’ll quickly find that much of what fills it, from the fruit and vegetables in the kitchen to the bicycle in the garage, is made elsewhere.

As US President Donald Trump pushes forward with his tariffs policy to bring manufacturing back to the United States, steep import taxes will drive up prices for US consumers, impacting everything from clothing to appliances as businesses adjust to the new cost structure.

So how much of each room in the house relies on imports, and what would it look like without those foreign-made products? Join us on a journey through a house, where we explore the impact that global trade has on everyday life.


Kitchen

Starting in the kitchen, we see a mix of US-made and foreign-made products.

Here's a breakdown of where some of the most common foods and drinks are sourced from:

Fruits

While the large majority of apples (95 percent) and oranges (80 percent) are grown domestically, especially in the US states of Washington, California and Florida, tropical fruits like bananas (one percent domestically grown), pineapples (10 percent), and avocados (10 percent) are primarily imported from countries like Ecuador, Costa Rica and Mexico.

Vegetables

Similarly, the majority of common vegetables, including corn (99 percent), potatoes (95 percent), pumpkins (95 percent) and beans (80 percent), are predominantly produced in the US, particularly in states like Iowa, Idaho, Illinois and Nebraska.

These states are renowned for their extensive agricultural output, with Iowa and Illinois leading in corn and soybean production, and Idaho excelling in potatoes. In contrast, only one-third of the tomatoes consumed in the US are domestically produced, with the majority coming from Mexico.

Staples

Staple items such as rice (80-90 percent), wheat (90 percent) and sugar (70 percent) are largely produced in the US, though some rice and specialty grains are imported.

Meats

Meats, especially beef (90 percent) and poultry (95 percent), are predominantly US-raised, especially in the states of Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Georgia and Arkansas, which are known for their large-scale livestock farming operations. Eggs (95 percent) and cheese (95 percent) are also mostly produced in the US.

Seafood production in the US is a mix of wild-caught and farmed, with at least two-thirds of the seafood consumed being imported from countries like China, Indonesia, Vietnam and Canada.

Drinks

Only around one percent of the tea and coffee consumed in the US is domestically produced, as the climate isn’t suitable for large-scale cultivation. Coffee is primarily imported from Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam and Ethiopia, while tea comes from China, India, Sri Lanka and Kenya.

The vast majority of soda (90 percent) is produced domestically. Major companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Keurig Dr Pepper dominate the US market, with numerous manufacturing facilities nationwide.


Living room

Moving on to the living room, most items, especially consumer electronics and home appliances, are imported.

Furniture

The proportion of furniture in US homes that is domestically produced has been steadily declining, with most furniture now being imported.

About one-third of furniture sold in the US is domestically produced, while the remaining two-thirds is imported. The largest exporters of furniture to the US include China, Vietnam, Mexico and Italy.

Televisions

Almost all televisions sold in the US are produced outside of the country, with a very small portion (about one percent) assembled domestically. The vast majority of TVs are manufactured overseas, primarily in countries like China, South Korea and Vietnam.

A significant number of TVs sold in the US are assembled in Mexico, where several major TV brands have assembly plants.

Mobile phones

Less than one percent of phones sold in the US are manufactured domestically.

Manufacturing mobile phones requires a highly specialised workforce and extensive infrastructure, including advanced supply chains for components like screens, processors and batteries.

The production process is highly globalised, with parts sourced from many different countries.

Lamps

The US market for light bulbs is heavily reliant on imports, particularly from China. According to IBISWorld, a market research firm, the number of lighting and bulb manufacturing businesses in the US has declined -1.5 percent per year on average over the five years between 2019 and 2024.

More

Trump’s tariffs: How much of a typical US household is made in America? | Interactive News | Al Jazeera

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

EV battery hype fails basic physics

Leith van Onselen  Thursday 24 April 2025

Every few weeks, the world’s media publishes an article on a fantastical breakthrough in electric vehicle (EV) battery technology that enables cars to be charged in as little as five minutes.

These technological breakthroughs are supposedly set to revolutionise EVs by allowing owners to charge up quickly away from home, removing some of the key drawbacks of owning an EV: range anxiety and inconvenience.

The latest article by David Campbell at News.com.au is indicative of the hype:

Huge tech announcements out of China promised an EV battery that could charge to 520km of driving range in just five minutes…

The five-minute promise came from Chinese battery giant CATL, which supplies cells to some of the world’s biggest electric car makers such as BMW, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla…

Unveiling the second generation of their Shenxing battery this week, CATL also claimed it was capable of charging quickly in freezing temperatures—a feat most EVs traditionally struggle to achieve.

CATL’s cold-weather demo at the announcement showed an EV charging from 5% to 80% in just 15 minutes at temperatures of -10C…

Chinese EV giant BYD has now found itself upstaged by CATL after last month announcing a superfast charging system of its own – 400km of range in five minutes.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s most advanced charging systems offer 320km of range in 15 minutes.

Australia cannot achieve these types of charging times in practice; they are purely theoretical.

Why? Because of the inextricable link between the power of a charger and the duration required to charge an EV battery.

Existing Australian infrastructure also cannot achieve the necessary electricity throughput to charge an EV battery in five minutes. To do so at scale would require hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in new poles, high-capacity wires, transformers, substations, etc, which is cost-prohibitive.

A standard 60 kWh Tesla battery would require a charger capable of delivering 720 Kw of throughput to charge the battery in only five minutes. This industrial-scale level of electricity is required to charge only a single EV battery.

However, the more users you have at a charging station, the slower the recharge rate. Only a certain amount of electricity can flow to a charging station at one time. Therefore, if a station has multiple EV chargers, the rate of flow of electricity to each charger will be determined by the number of cars charging at a time.

The cost would also be prohibitive, even if one could miraculously charge up in five minutes. Fast chargers typically cost more to charge than slower chargers due to the amount of costly capital investment required to deliver such high throughput. Fast charging needs a bigger connection to the grid. As a result, it costs far more.

Finally, the faster the charge, the more stress it places on the battery, reducing its useful life. Who wants to have to spend $10,000 to $15,000 to replace their EV battery prematurely?

These problems are baked into the laws of physics. If you want to charge in half the time, you must double the amount of power in your charger. More power means more expense. And the more people there are charging at once, the less throughput there is.

The above factors are why pure battery EVs will struggle to take off at the population level.

EVs are fine if you have off-street parking, can charge overnight at home, and only make shorter trips. But they are highly inconvenient if you rely on public chargers.

EV battery hype fails basic physics - MacroBusiness

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Vivaldi again. Approx.10 minutes.

Vivaldi. Oboe Concerto a minor RV461 - (Masmano)

Vivaldi. Oboe Concerto a minor RV461 - (Masmano) - YouTube

This weekend’s tariff diversion.  Approx. 11 minutes and 13 minutes.

China’s Tariffs Are WIPING OUT American Farmers, Triggering A Global Food Crisis!

China’s Tariffs Are WIPING OUT American Farmers, Triggering A Global Food Crisis!

US Port Update - May 1, 2025 | Latest Supply Chain and Freight Indicators

US Port Update - May 1, 2025 | Latest Supply Chain and Freight Indicators

This weekend’s final interesting diversion.  

10 Oldest Stock Exchanges in the World

Published on March 19, 2025

The history of stock exchanges is murky as commodities exchanges have existed for as long as anyone can remember. However, generally the first modern stock exchanges emerged sometime in the 17th and 18th centuries. A few of the oldest existing stock exchanges date back to this time and the others on this list are from the 19th century. Stock exchanges are still an integral part of the world’s economy and the stock exchanges on this list are still going strong after several centuries.

As of August 2020, the information on this list is as accurate as possible and will be updated as needed.

10. Bombay Stock Exchange

 Year Established: 1875
 Current Owner:  BSE Ltd
 No. of Listings: 5,439

Established in 1875, the Bombay Stock Exchange or BSE is the oldest stock exchange in Asia. The stock exchange was founded by Premchand Roychand, one of the most influential businessmen in the 19th century. Before a formal stock exchange was formed, stock brokers would meet under the Banyan tree in front of Mumbai Town Hall in the 1850s and 1860s.

More

---- 1. Amsterdam Stock Exchange (Euronext Amsterdam)

 Year Established: 1602
 Current Owner:  Euronext
 No. of Listings: 140

Founded in 1602 by the Dutch East India Company, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange (currently called Euronext Amsterdam) is the world’s oldest and first stock exchange. It was the first exchange of its kind to trade in securities instead of commodities. The States General of the Netherlands gave the Dutch East India Company a 21-year charter over all Dutch trade in Asia and quasi-governmental powers. Over the centuries, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange has gone through many changes. In 2000, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange merged with the Brussels and Paris stock exchanges to form Euronext.

Did You Know?

In 1774, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange made another first in the world, when it established the world’s first investment fund to stave off a stock market crash.

10 Oldest Stock Exchanges in the World - Oldest.org


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