Baltic
Dry Index. 1421 +10 Brent Crude 61.29
Spot
Gold 3240 U S 2 Year Yield 3.83 +0.13
US
Federal Debt. 36.801 trillion!!!
“if the
U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its
wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs.”
China,
1 May 2025
The US and global
economies are drinking in the last chance saloon. Unless President Trump
reverses his tariff war follies and almost immediately, an unstoppable just in
time supply chain crash is about to plunge life as we know it into Great
Depression 2.0.
At least, that’s
dinosaur Graeme’s assessment of the folly of trying to undo 50 years of
globalisation and outsourcing in a few days and weeks.
From here on out,
incoming hard economic statistics get increasingly dire. Just don’t let on to
the deluded gamblers in the stock casinos, who think China just kowtowed to
Donald Trump.
I don’t think China kowtows
to anyone in the 21st century. Besides, it was Donald Trump that
begged China to start trade talks with Trump’s USA. Who’s kowtowing to who?
Dinosaur Graeme
thinks it all falls apart fast from here on out .Look away from that collapsing
oil price, US Treasury yield curve and
soaring US federal debt, now.
Dow
jumps 500 points, S&P 500 posts longest win streak in 20 years as stocks
claw back tariff losses: Live updates
Updated
Fri, May 2 2025 4:22 PM EDT
Stocks rose on Friday as Wall Street digested a
better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for April, which eased recession
fears and lifted the S&P
500 for its longest winning streak in just over two decades.
The S&P 500 advanced 1.47% and closed at
5,686.67. This marked the broad market index’s ninth consecutive day of gains
and its longest winning run since November 2004. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped
564.47 points, or 1.39%, to end at 41,317.43. The Nasdaq Composite gained
1.51% and settled at 17,977.73. With Friday’s surge, the S&P 500 has now
recovered its losses since April 2, when President Donald Trump announced
his “reciprocal” tariffs. This comes a day after the tech-heavy
Nasdaq accomplished
the same feat.
Payrolls grew by
177,000 in April, above the 133,000 that economists polled by Dow
Jones had anticipated. That figure was still down sharply from the 228,000
added in March but much better than feared after recession worries
ramped up last month. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, in line with
expectations.
“Markets breathed a sigh of relief this morning as
the jobs data came in better than expected,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief
investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “While recession fears are
still simmering on the back burner, the buy-the-dip dynamic can continue – at
least until the tariff pause runs out.”
Investors were already upbeat prior to the strong
jobs report after China said that it is evaluating
the possibility of starting trade negotiations with the U.S. Still,
Chinese authorities reaffirmed their belief that the U.S. should remove all
unilateral tariffs, saying in a statement that “if the U.S. wants to talk, it
should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and
cancel the unilateral tariffs.” Later in the day, a report from The Wall Street
Journal suggested that Beijing is open
to trade talks.
The Street was also mulling over earnings reports
from two “Magnificent Seven” members. Apple slid 3.7% after
posting fiscal
second-quarter revenue from its services division that fell short
against analyst estimates. Additionally, the iPhone maker said it expects to
add $900 million in costs in the current quarter due to tariffs. Amazon shares, meanwhile,
were marginally lower after the company issued
light guidance, highlighting “tariffs and trade policies” as factors.
“We’ve already seen how financial markets will react
if the administration moves forward with their initial tariff plan, so unless
they take a different tack in July when the 90-day pause expires, we will see
market action similar to the first week of April,” Zaccarelli also said.
Stocks have made an incredible comeback since Trump
announced last month that’s he’s temporarily
reducing his new tariff rates for most countries to 10% for 90 days.
The market has especially picked up steam lately, leading to the S&P 500′s
winning streak, as solid earnings have come out.
All three major averages posted their second
positive week in a row. The S&P 500 added 2.9%, sitting more than 7% below
its February high after at one point being down nearly 20%. The Dow posted a 3%
advance on the week, while the Nasdaq added 3.4%.
Stock
market news for May 2, 2025
Employers
Added 177,000 Jobs in April Despite Tariff Uncertainty
Hiring slowed
slightly from March’s pace, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%
Updated May 2, 2025 4:33
pm ET
The U.S. labor market steadily added jobs last month
despite jolting tariff announcements that many economists expect will give way
to a trade policy-induced slowdown later this year.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the
U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, above the gain of 133,000 jobs
that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see. The
unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey from the jobs figures,
held steady at 4.2%.
The report revealed solid data “that no one wants to
trust,” said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at investment bank
Jefferies. That is because the figures likely reflected staffing decisions made
in February and March, before President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff
announcements early in the month that induced significant market volatility.
Many business leaders are also likely betting that
Trump will blink when it comes to some of his proposed policies. The president
announced sweeping tariffs on April 2, then paused many of them on April 9. He implied later in
the month that he would fire the Federal Reserve chair, then said he had “no intention” of doing so.
Stocks closed higher Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial
Average and the S&P 500 notching nine straight days of gains. Signs
of a potential thaw in the trade relations between China
and the U.S. also lifted stocks.
Trump, who has said that tariffs will make America
richer and bring manufacturing back to the U.S., took a victory
lap on his Truth Social platform. “Employment strong, and much more good news,
as Billions of Dollars pour in from Tariffs,” he posted. “Just like I said, and
we’re only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!!”
Still, the fast-changing policies from Washington
could soon begin to take the momentum out of the jobs market, economists
said.
“There’s a lot of anxiety about what tariffs mean
for supply chains,” said James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial
Markets. “The longer that this uncertainty lasts for, the more cautious
businesses become about hiring and investment.”
The time frame of the jobs survey only captures so
much. The Labor Department asks employers how many people they had on their
payrolls during any pay period that includes the 12th of the month. That
provides a limited look at companies’ early thinking on how to adjust to sudden
tariff announcements.
In earnings calls over the past few weeks, companies
have complained of the high degree of instability created by tariffs, and
some companies are rethinking their entire business strategies. Many,
including General Motors and JetBlue Airways, withdrew their earnings guidance for the year.
Relatively few have talked about the need for
layoffs. Many appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to
cutting workers. For some, the reluctance stems from having worked so hard to
staff up during and right after the Covid pandemic.
Still, nervous companies could choose to
simply put hiring on hold.
What’s more, businesses and individuals are telling
surveys that they are worried about the economy. Consumer sentiment in April hit one of its lowest
levels on record, according to the University of Michigan.
The pace of April’s job gains was lower than the
185,000 jobs added in March. The gains for February and March were revised down
by a combined 58,000 jobs. Hourly wages grew by less than expected compared
with both a month ago and a year ago.
Some of April’s job gains may have been driven by
the burst of activity that occurred as companies worked to get in front of
tariffs, said Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs. Employment
in the transportation and warehousing sector rose by 29,000 jobs last month.
Those gains could get unwound: Data from job-search
site Indeed show that a surge in job openings for loading and stocking workers
earlier in the year reversed itself by April.
Healthcare, financial activities and social
assistance all added jobs in April. Federal-government employment declined by
9,000 jobs, the third month in a row of job losses there.
However, those losses don’t reflect the magnitude of
the massive job cuts announced by the Trump administration. Many federal
workers are on paid leave or still getting severance pay, and therefore still
counted as employed. Ongoing lawsuits and court orders have also slowed
those layoffs.
More
U.S.
Employers Added 177,000 Jobs in April, Report Shows Unemployment Stayed at 4.2%
- WSJ
Euro
zone inflation unchanged at 2.2% in April, leaving path open for further ECB interest
rate cuts
Published
Fri, May 2 2025 5:04 AM EDT
Euro zone inflation was unchanged at 2.2% in April,
missing expectations for a move lower, flash data from statistics agency
Eurostat showed Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting the
reading to come in at 2.1% in April compared to March’s 2.2% as inflation has
been easing back towards the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food,
energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, accelerated to 2.7% from March’s 2.4%. The
closely-watched services inflation print also picked up again, coming in at
3.9% compared to the previous 3.5% reading.
The euro was higher against the U.S. dollar and the
British pound following the data release. Bond yields were little changed, with
the yield on 10-year German bonds continuing to trade around 3 basis
points higher.
The increase in services inflation was likely
“driven mainly by Easter timing effects,” Franziska Palmas, senior Europe
economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. These effects would reverse in
the coming month, she added, suggesting that this left the door open for
further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.
“We think the services rate will decline
significantly in the rest of this year as US tariffs weigh on activity and the
labour market continues to weaken,” Palmas added.
Michael Field, chief equity strategist at
Morningstar, meanwhile urged caution, saying tariff uncertainty meant “any
level of comfort we have here is precarious.” A further escalation of tariff
tensions would mean a pick-up of inflation in Europe, he said.
Field added that further ECB rate cuts were still on
the table. “This relatively low level of headline inflation keeps the pressure
off the ECB, who can in turn lower interest rates further,” he said.
More
Euro zone inflation, April 2025
Trump’s
tariffs cause major car brand to lose billions across supply chain impacting
millions
2 May 2025
General Motors has warned that it expects to take a
near $5billion (£3.7billion) hit from President Donald Trump's controversial
auto tariffs.
The US manufacturing giant said it now expects to
offset "at least" 30 per cent of the tariff impact through
"self-help" measures that include quickly adjusting its production
and supply chain footprint.
Bracing for the impact of the tariff, GM has updated
its adjusted earnings range to between $10billion (£7.5billion) and
$12.5billion (£9.4billion), down from the earlier projection of $13.7billion
(£10.3billion) to $15.7billion (£11.8billion).
The company said it is also reviewing its
"entire footprint" as it adapts to the new trade policy environment,
which could risk impacting the supply chain.
The impact includes an estimated $2billion
(£1.5billion) in tariffs on finished vehicles from South Korea, where GM
manufactures several value-priced models, including the popular Chevrolet Trax
SUV.
In a letter to shareholders this week, CEO Mary
Barra stated that despite the tariff challenges, GM's business remains
"fundamentally strong" as it adapts to the new trade policy
environment.
The company noted it gained almost two per cent of
US market share year-on-year in the first quarter, with incentives remaining
below the industry average and inventories staying low.
Barra also held discussions with Trump and his
administration this week, which were seen as "very productive,"
praising the White House's recent move to temper tariffs on auto parts.
Barra said these actions advance "our shared
goals of growing the US auto industry, which will be good for America in the
long term".
In a letter to shareholders, Barra also expressed
gratitude to Trump "for his support of the US automotive industry,"
particularly in helping US manufacturers.
"We have had continual discussions with the
President and his team since before the inauguration," Barra wrote, noting
the administration has "invested the time to understand what it takes to
be successful in this capital-intensive and highly competitive global
industry".
The company revealed it will also work with auto
suppliers to boost their US-supplied content for GM vehicles, Barra indicated.
She noted that GM has "excess capacity" at
manufacturing facilities in the US, making adjustments faster to implement at
existing factories.
Trump's tariff policy includes a two-year grace
period designed to encourage companies to move supply chains to the United
States.
Under this policy, companies importing parts for
vehicles assembled in the US would be able to offset 3.75 per cent of a
vehicle's list price in the first year and 2.5 per cent in the second year.
However, Trump has not taken steps to mitigate a 25
per cent tariff on auto imports, which affects GM vehicles made in Canada and
Mexico.
More
Finally, how to/not
to elect a Pope.
Doves,
deaths and rations: Papal elections over time
27 April 2025
Cardinals electing Pope Francis's successor will
have an easier time than many of their predecessors, who endured spartan
conditions and were even locked up so long that some of them died.
Here are some notable papal elections through the
ages.
- The dove decides
-
In 236, the Christian community of Rome was debating
potential papal candidates when a white dove landed on the head of a bystander,
Fabian.
"At this, everyone, as if moved by a single
divine inspiration, eagerly and wholeheartedly called out that Fabian was
worthy," according to Eusebius, a Church historian of the era.
The blessing was a mixed one for Fabian, who died 14
years later a martyr, persecuted by Emperor Decius.
- Large-scale
bribery -
In the early Church, popes were elected by members
of the clergy and the Roman nobility, and the votes were rife with meddling.
One of the most infamous elections was in 532,
following the death of Boniface II, which involved "large-scale bribing of
royal officials and influential senators", according to P.G.
Maxwell-Stuart in "Chronicle of the Popes".
In the end, an ordinary priest was elected,
Mercurius. He became the first pope to change his name -- to John.
In 1059, Nicholas II gave cardinals sole authority
to choose pontiffs.
- Lock them up -
The idea of locking up the cardinals to encourage a
quick decision began in the 13th century -- the word conclave comes from the
Latin phrase meaning "with key".
In 1241, when the election was dragging on, the head
of Rome's government locked the cardinals into a dilapidated building and
refused to clean the lavatories or provide doctors for those who fell
ill.
According to Frederic Baumgartner in his
"Behind Locked Doors: A History of the Papal Elections", the
cardinals only reached a decision after one of them died and the Romans
threatened to exhume his corpse and have it make decisions.
After 70 days, they agreed on Goffredo Castiglioni,
who became Celestine IV.
- Three years -
The longest conclave in history lasted almost three
years following the death of Clement IV in November 1268, held in the papal
palace at Viterbo, near Rome.
From late 1269 the cardinals allowed themselves to
be locked in to try to reach a decision, and by June 1270, frustrated locals
tore the roof off in a bid to speed things along.
They were apparently inspired by a quip by an
English cardinal that without the roof, the Holy Spirit could descend
unhindered.
Teobaldo Visconti became pope Gregory X in September
1271.
More
Doves, deaths and rations: Papal elections over time
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
How much of a typical US household is made in
America?
30 Apr 2025
Step inside a typical
American home, and you’ll quickly find that much of what fills it, from the
fruit and vegetables in the kitchen to the bicycle in the garage, is made
elsewhere.
As US President Donald
Trump pushes forward with his tariffs policy to bring manufacturing back to
the United States, steep import taxes will drive up prices for US consumers,
impacting everything from clothing to appliances as businesses adjust to the
new cost structure.
So how much of each room
in the house relies on imports, and what would it look like without those
foreign-made products? Join us on a journey through a house, where we explore
the impact that global trade has on everyday life.
Kitchen
Starting in the kitchen,
we see a mix of US-made and foreign-made products.
Here's a breakdown of
where some of the most common foods and drinks are sourced from:
Fruits
While the large majority
of apples (95 percent) and oranges (80 percent) are grown domestically,
especially in the US states of Washington, California and Florida, tropical
fruits like bananas (one percent domestically grown), pineapples (10 percent),
and avocados (10 percent) are primarily imported from countries like Ecuador,
Costa Rica and Mexico.
Vegetables
Similarly, the majority
of common vegetables, including corn (99 percent), potatoes (95 percent),
pumpkins (95 percent) and beans (80 percent), are predominantly produced in the
US, particularly in states like Iowa, Idaho, Illinois and Nebraska.
These states are renowned
for their extensive agricultural output, with Iowa and Illinois leading in corn
and soybean production, and Idaho excelling in potatoes. In contrast, only
one-third of the tomatoes consumed in the US are domestically produced, with
the majority coming from Mexico.
Staples
Staple items such as rice
(80-90 percent), wheat (90 percent) and sugar (70 percent) are largely produced
in the US, though some rice and specialty grains are imported.
Meats
Meats, especially beef
(90 percent) and poultry (95 percent), are predominantly US-raised, especially
in the states of Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Georgia and Arkansas, which are known
for their large-scale livestock farming operations. Eggs (95 percent) and
cheese (95 percent) are also mostly produced in the US.
Seafood production in the
US is a mix of wild-caught and farmed, with at least two-thirds of the seafood
consumed being imported from countries like China, Indonesia, Vietnam and
Canada.
Drinks
Only around one percent
of the tea and coffee consumed in the US is domestically produced, as the
climate isn’t suitable for large-scale cultivation. Coffee is primarily
imported from Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam and Ethiopia, while tea comes from
China, India, Sri Lanka and Kenya.
The vast majority of soda
(90 percent) is produced domestically. Major companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo
and Keurig Dr Pepper dominate the US market, with numerous manufacturing
facilities nationwide.
Living room
Moving on to the living
room, most items, especially consumer electronics and home appliances, are
imported.
Furniture
The proportion of
furniture in US homes that is domestically produced has been steadily
declining, with most furniture now being imported.
About one-third of
furniture sold in the US is domestically produced, while the remaining
two-thirds is imported. The largest exporters of furniture to the US include
China, Vietnam, Mexico and Italy.
Televisions
Almost all televisions
sold in the US are produced outside of the country, with a very small portion
(about one percent) assembled domestically. The vast majority of TVs are
manufactured overseas, primarily in countries like China, South Korea and
Vietnam.
A significant number of
TVs sold in the US are assembled in Mexico, where several major TV brands have
assembly plants.
Mobile phones
Less than one percent of
phones sold in the US are manufactured domestically.
Manufacturing mobile
phones requires a highly specialised workforce and extensive infrastructure,
including advanced supply chains for components like screens, processors and
batteries.
The production process is
highly globalised, with parts sourced from many different countries.
Lamps
The US market for light
bulbs is heavily reliant on imports, particularly from China. According to
IBISWorld, a market research firm, the number of lighting and bulb
manufacturing businesses in the US has declined -1.5 percent per year on
average over the five years between 2019 and 2024.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
EV battery hype fails basic physics
Leith van Onselen Thursday 24 April 2025
Every few weeks, the world’s media
publishes an article on a fantastical breakthrough in electric vehicle (EV)
battery technology that enables cars to be charged in as little as five
minutes.
These technological breakthroughs are
supposedly set to revolutionise EVs by allowing owners to charge up quickly
away from home, removing some of the key drawbacks of owning an EV: range
anxiety and inconvenience.
The latest article by David Campbell at News.com.au
is indicative of the hype:
Huge tech announcements out of China
promised an EV battery that could charge to 520km of driving range in just five
minutes…
The five-minute promise came from
Chinese battery giant CATL, which supplies cells to some of the world’s biggest
electric car makers such as BMW, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla…
Unveiling the second generation of their
Shenxing battery this week, CATL also claimed it was capable of charging
quickly in freezing temperatures—a feat most EVs traditionally struggle to
achieve.
CATL’s cold-weather demo at the
announcement showed an EV charging from 5% to 80% in just 15 minutes at
temperatures of -10C…
Chinese EV giant BYD has now found
itself upstaged by CATL after last month announcing a superfast charging system
of its own – 400km of range in five minutes.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s most advanced
charging systems offer 320km of range in 15 minutes.
Australia cannot achieve these types of
charging times in practice; they are purely theoretical.
Why? Because of the inextricable link
between the power of a charger and the duration required to charge an EV
battery.
Existing Australian infrastructure also
cannot achieve the necessary electricity throughput to charge an EV battery in
five minutes. To do so at scale would require hundreds of billions of dollars
of investment in new poles, high-capacity wires, transformers, substations,
etc, which is cost-prohibitive.
A standard 60 kWh Tesla battery would
require a charger capable of delivering 720 Kw of throughput to charge the
battery in only five minutes. This industrial-scale level of electricity is
required to charge only a single EV battery.
However, the more users you have at a
charging station, the slower the recharge rate. Only a certain amount of
electricity can flow to a charging station at one time. Therefore, if a station
has multiple EV chargers, the rate of flow of electricity to each charger will
be determined by the number of cars charging at a time.
The cost would also be prohibitive, even
if one could miraculously charge up in five minutes. Fast chargers typically
cost more to charge than slower chargers due to the amount of costly capital
investment required to deliver such high throughput. Fast charging needs a
bigger connection to the grid. As a result, it costs far more.
Finally, the faster the charge, the more
stress it places on the battery, reducing its useful life. Who wants to have to
spend $10,000 to $15,000 to replace their EV battery prematurely?
These problems are baked into the laws
of physics. If you want to charge in half the time, you must double the amount
of power in your charger. More power means more expense. And the more people
there are charging at once, the less throughput there is.
The above factors are why pure battery
EVs will struggle to take off at the population level.
EVs are fine if you have off-street
parking, can charge overnight at home, and only make shorter trips. But they
are highly inconvenient if you rely on public chargers.
EV battery hype fails basic physics - MacroBusiness
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Vivaldi again. Approx.10 minutes.
Vivaldi.
Oboe Concerto a minor RV461 - (Masmano)
Vivaldi. Oboe
Concerto a minor RV461 - (Masmano) - YouTube
This
weekend’s tariff diversion. Approx. 11
minutes and 13 minutes.
China’s
Tariffs Are WIPING OUT American Farmers, Triggering A Global Food Crisis!
China’s Tariffs
Are WIPING OUT American Farmers, Triggering A Global Food Crisis!
US
Port Update - May 1, 2025 | Latest Supply Chain and Freight Indicators
US Port Update -
May 1, 2025 | Latest Supply Chain and Freight Indicators
This
weekend’s final interesting diversion.
10
Oldest Stock Exchanges in the World
Published
on March 19, 2025
The
history of stock exchanges is murky as commodities exchanges have existed for
as long as anyone can remember. However, generally the first modern stock
exchanges emerged sometime in the 17th and 18th centuries. A few of the oldest
existing stock exchanges date back to this time and the others on this list are
from the 19th century. Stock exchanges are still an integral part of the
world’s economy and the stock exchanges on this list are still going strong
after several centuries.
As
of August 2020, the information on this list is as accurate as possible and
will be updated as needed.
10.
Bombay Stock Exchange
Year
Established: 1875
Current Owner: BSE Ltd
No. of Listings: 5,439
Established
in 1875, the Bombay
Stock Exchange or
BSE is the oldest stock exchange in Asia. The stock exchange was founded by
Premchand Roychand, one of the most influential businessmen in the 19th
century. Before a formal stock exchange was formed, stock brokers would meet
under the Banyan tree in front of Mumbai Town Hall in the 1850s and 1860s.
More
---- 1.
Amsterdam Stock Exchange (Euronext Amsterdam)
Year
Established: 1602
Current Owner: Euronext
No. of Listings: 140
Founded
in 1602 by the Dutch East India Company, the Amsterdam Stock
Exchange (currently
called Euronext Amsterdam) is the world’s oldest and first stock
exchange. It
was the first exchange of its kind to trade in securities instead of
commodities. The States General of the Netherlands gave the Dutch East India
Company a 21-year charter over all Dutch trade in Asia and quasi-governmental
powers. Over the centuries, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange has gone through many
changes. In 2000, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange merged with the Brussels and
Paris stock exchanges to form Euronext.
Did
You Know?
In
1774, the Amsterdam Stock Exchange made another first in the world, when it
established the world’s first investment fund to stave off a stock market
crash.
10 Oldest Stock
Exchanges in the World - Oldest.org
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