Baltic
Dry Index. 1340 -01 Brent Crude 64.97
Spot Gold 3349 US 2 Year Yield 4.00 Fri.
US Federal Debt. 36.896 trillion!!!
In the past week, the US has
sent Brussels a list of demands to reduce the US goods trade deficit, including
so-called non-tariff barriers, such as by adopting US food safety standards and
removing national digital services taxes, according to people familiar with the
paper.
The EU response has been to
offer a mutually beneficial deal that could include both sides moving to zero
tariffs on industrial goods, the EU potentially buying more liquefied natural
gas and soybeans and cooperation on issues such as steel overcapacity, which
both sides blame on China.
EU urges respect not threats as Trump pushes 50% tariff
Note: most of this section was written before Trump’s Sunday belated realisation of the trade chaos and destruction he was about to cause.
While the UK and USA spend today on holiday, the EU is just six days away from 50 percent tariffs on EU exports to the USA. From perfume to planes.
Now Trump has delayed the 50 percent tariffs to July 9th.
While the EU could do nothing, attempting to negotiate exemptions and a trade deal, I think that’s unlikely.
More likely is that the EU will hit back, either with across the board retaliatory tariffs on US exports to the EU, or targeted tariffs aimed at Trump supporting States and companies. One suggestion from Ireland was that the EU should just impose twice the Trump tariff on USA exports, but I think that unlikely and unhelpful.
It’s not yet clear if EU exports already in shipment before the 50 percent tariff was announced on Friday will be subject to the new tariff, but if so, it will become a massive unplanned hit to US importers large and small.
Longer term, US consumers must get used to no, or only very expensive, foods, wines and perfumes from the EU, along with very expensive EU made vehicles.
Expect more EU consumer boycotts of US products and services, plus a rising EU traveller boycott of the USA across the rest of 2025.
The EU exports a little over 800 billion of products annually to the USA, while the USA exports a little under 800 billion of products to the EU annually. Roughly 1.6 trillion of international annual commerce is about to get disrupted in early July, but with each passing week that disruption is likely to have increasingly bad consequences.
How this tariff madness ends, I have only a guess, but I suspect it ends badly for all, like the 1930s, but this century with a Pacific Ocean sized debt problem.
Updated Sun, May 25 2025 11:37 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors
assess Trump's EU tariffs deadline extension
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday
as investors assessed U.S. President Donald Trump’s postponement of 50%
tariffs on European Union imports.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 pared earlier
gains to edge up 0.45% while the broader Topix index added 0.25%.
In South Korea, the Kospi index advanced 1.52%
while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 1.41%.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 index dropped 0.13% while
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell
0.53%.
Over in Australia, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 declined
0.14%.
U.S. futures ticked up in early Asia
trade. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.
All three key benchmarks on Wall
Street declined in last Friday’s session. The broad-based S&P 500 shed 0.67% to end
the session at 5,802.82, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1%
and settled at 18,737.21. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average lost 256.02 points, or 0.61%, to close at
41,603.07.
Asia
markets live updates for May 26, 2025
Will Trump’s new tariff threat on EU, Apple rattle
markets more this week?
25 May 2025
Dubai: After a turbulent end to last week,
investors head into the new trading week bracing for more market swings driven
by fresh geopolitical uncertainty and tariff rhetoric.
US stocks closed out its worst week in
nearly two months. The decline came after US President Donald Trump threatened
50% tariffs on goods from the European Union, reigniting fears of a trade war
just as markets were stabilising.
Major U.S. indexes—S&P 500, Nasdaq,
and Dow Jones—all closed lower Friday, with tech stocks like Apple and
retailers like Ross Stores taking a heavy hit.
This week, all eyes will be on how markets
digest the potential June 1 deadline for these proposed tariffs. While some
analysts view Trump’s remarks as a hardline negotiation tactic, the immediate
reaction from both U.S. and European stocks suggests investors are not brushing
it off.
What's in store this week?
Volatility is likely to persist,
especially in sectors heavily exposed to international trade and supply
chains—tech, retail, and consumer goods among them. Companies like Apple could
see further downside if tariff threats turn into policy, while firms with
Chinese manufacturing exposure may also be under pressure.
On the flip side, nuclear and
defence-related stocks might see upside momentum. Last week, Trump’s executive
orders to boost nuclear energy licensing sent companies like Oklo soaring,
suggesting investors are quick to shift funds into sectors that stand to
benefit from policy moves.
Bond markets will also be worth watching,
with U.S. Treasury yields drifting lower, signalling a cautious investor mood.
Will Trump’s new
tariff threat on EU, Apple rattle markets more this week?
CNBC Daily Open: Investors don’t feel as
threatened by Trump’s tariffs
Published Sun, May 25 2025 9:26 PM EDT
If U.S. President Donald Trump follows up
on his threat of 50% tariffs on the European Union, he’d be imposing higher
duties on America’s ally compared with the 30%
on China currently.
But on Sunday, Trump said he would delay
tariffs on EU to July 9 from June 1 following a call with European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen.
Indeed, when news of the tariffs first
broke, analysts weren’t convinced Trump’s statement held much weight. For one,
the U.S. President used the word “recommendation” — a proposal rather than a
clear directive. Trump has also walked back on more than one occasion with
regard to import duties: pausing
the “reciprocal” tariffs and lowering
trade barriers with China, albeit both on a temporary basis.
Major U.S. and European stock indexes did
not have a sharp reaction compared with Trump’s initial
announcement of tariffs on April 2, signaling that investors are
beginning to take tariff-related announcements with a pinch of salt.
The proposal of 50% tariff on the EU is
primarily a “negotiating tactic,” Barclays wrote in a Friday note.
Still, markets dropped on the week — the
S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Index and Nasdaq Composite lost more than 2%
during that period — as Treasury yields jumped.
The sell-off in Treasurys came on the back
of Trump’s tax
bill, which is estimated to add $2.3 trillion to the federal deficit.
So, while investors appear to be coming to
terms with Trump’s tariffs proclamations, there’s much more in the president’s
arsenal to keep markets jittery.
Trump recommends 50% tariffs on EU
U.S. President Donald Trump said Sunday he will delay 50%
tariffs on the European Union until July 9, days after “recommending”
them to kick
in from June 1. Trade freight experts said that such
tariffs could “backfire” on the U.S. and make manufacturing more
expensive. The White House did not interpret the president’s post as a formal
statement of policy, CNBC’s Eamon Javers reported.
More
CNBC
Daily Open: Investors don't feel as threatened by Trump tariffs
In other
news.
Asean summit
opens in Malaysia with trade dismay, US tariffs top of mind
Discussions
will also focus on finding a unified approach to Myanmar’s civil war and
advancing a code of conduct for the South China Sea
Published: 11:01am,
26 May 2025Updated: 11:28am, 26 May 2025
Southeast
Asian leaders are meeting in Malaysia on Monday seeking trade deals with new
partners as US tariffs threaten unprecedented damage to their export-reliant
economies.
The
two-day Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur is also expected to increase pressure on
Myanmar’s military junta and attempt to resolve issues with East Timor’s
application to join the bloc.
It comes
as growth across the region has taken a hit from US President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs, with levies of up to 49
per cent set to be imposed on member states unless they can make deals before a
July deadline.
The
tariff upheaval has pushed the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations to pursue trade
deals with non-US partners and increase intra-bloc trade and business
cooperation.
Malaysian
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Monday lamented that the very
foundations of free trade were being “dismantled under the force of arbitrary
action”.
But he
added in his opening remarks at the summit that he believed in “the fortitude
and staying power of Asean to withstand the headwinds and weather the storms of
the challenges and uncertainties facing us.”
To
navigate the uncertainty, the bloc is swiftly seeking new trade deals.
Asean’s
economic ministers completed talks with China on an upgraded free trade
deal last week, and have also agreed to work on reducing trade
barriers between members of the bloc.
On
Tuesday, the bloc will hold its first summit with China and the Gulf Cooperation
Council – a political and economic alliance of six Middle Eastern countries –
in a sign of its readiness to embrace new markets. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is set to attend.
“It won’t
happen overnight or even at the end of Malaysian chairmanship, but the American
‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have certainly forced Asean to rethink its role and
its approach in protecting the interests of the member states,” said Adib
Zalkapli, managing director of geopolitical and public policy advisory firm
Viewfinder Global Affairs.
More
Asean
summit opens in Malaysia with trade dismay, US tariffs top of mind | South
China Morning Post
Companies turn to
AI to navigate Trump tariff turbulence
Published
Sat, May 24 2025 1:50 AM EDT
Businesses
are turning to artificial intelligence tools to help them navigate real-world
turbulence in global trade.
Several
tech firms told CNBC say they’re deploying the nascent technology to visualize
businesses’ global supply chains — from the materials that are used to form
products, to where those goods are being shipped from — and understand how
they’re affected by U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Last
week, Salesforce said it had developed a new import
specialist AI agent that can “instantly process changes for
all 20,000 product categories in the U.S. customs system and then take action
on them” as needed, to help navigate changes to tariff systems.
Engineers
at the U.S. software giant used the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, a 4,400-page
document of tariffs on goods imported to the U.S., to inform answers generated
by the agent.
“The
sheer pace and complexity of global tariff changes make it nearly impossible
for most businesses to keep up manually,” Eric Loeb, executive vice president
of government affairs at Salesforce, told CNBC. “In the past, companies might
have relied on small teams of in-house experts to keep pace.”
Firms say
that AI systems are enabling them to take decisions on adjustments to their
global supply chains much faster.
Andrew
Bell, chief product officer of supply chain management software firm Kinaxis,
said that manufacturers and distributors looking to inform their response to
tariffs are using his firm’s machine learning technology to assess their
products and the materials that go into them, as well as external signals like
news articles and macroeconomic data.
“With
that information, we can start doing some of those simulations of, here is a
particular part that is in your build material that has a significant tariff.
If you switched to using this other part instead, what would the impact be
overall?” Bell told CNBC.
‘AI’s
moment to shine’
Trump’s
tariffs list — which covers dozens of countries — has forced companies to
rethink their supply chains and pricing, with the likes of Walmart and Nike already raising
prices on some products. The U.S. imported
about $3.3 trillion of goods in 2024, according to census
data.
Uncertainty
from the U.S. tariff measures “actually probably presents AI’s moment to
shine,” Zack Kass, a futurist and former head of OpenAI’s go-to-market
strategy, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy last month.
“If you
wonder how hard things could get without AI vis-a-vis automation, and what
would happen in a world where you can’t just employ a bunch of people
overnight, AI presents this alternative proposal,” he added.
Nagendra
Bandaru, managing partner and global head of technology services at Indian IT
giant Wipro, said clients are using the company’s agentic AI
solutions “to pivot supplier strategies, adjust trade lanes, and manage duty
exposure dynamically as policy landscapes evolve.”
More
Companies turn to
AI to navigate Trump tariff turbulence
“I learned that even though markets look their very best when they are setting new highs, that is often the best time to sell.”
Paul Tudor Jones
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Donald
Trump has one last chance to avert a recession in the US
May
23, 2025
Wall
Street was booming after the presidential
election last
November. Big business was planning a wave of investment, and global
multinationals were shifting operations to the United States.
The
expectation was that president Donald
Trump would
run a pro-business, pro-enterprise administration. Yet there has been little
sign of it so far.
The
president’s time in government has been dominated by a huge round of tariffs – a disguised tax,
and one that will provoke chaos in supply chains.
We
have seen chaotic policymaking, damaging confidence, with plans changing day by
day. And we may even see tax
rises on the rich.
It has hardly been an inspiring mix, and it is not a great surprise that US
businesses’ confidence has fallen sharply over the last few months. Wall Street
has recovered most of its losses from the spring, but there has not been any
sign of a “Trump Bump”.
Over
the next few weeks, Trump will have one last chance to fix that. The Budget set
to be agreed this month gives him a chance to push forward with his
deregulation agenda. Some of the early signs are promising.
The
deal under discussion includes a loosening of financial regulations, easing the
restrictions on bank capital that were imposed after the crash of 2009. The
banks have complained that the rules are so tightly written that they
effectively prevent them from lending nearly as much as they could. The result?
Small firms have been starved of credit. Sure, the regulators need to make sure
there is not another crash, but they also need to allow the banks to do their
job. If the rules are loosened, it will help the economy.
We
may finally see some of the work of Elon
Musk’s Department
of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, bearing fruit. Even though Musk is stepping
back to try to fix Tesla, DOGE has made progress on rooting out waste. It has
managed to cut back on spending on diversity, equality and inclusion (DEI),
returning the government to the simple principle of hiring the best person for
each job, and perhaps more importantly, it has persuaded many of America’s
biggest companies to ditch the DEI baggage.
Likewise,
a bill to create a legal framework for cryptocurrencies is making its way
through Congress, and that may well cement America’s lead in the industry. And
of course, the Budget may well include significant tax reforms, even if the
president has floated the idea of an extra tax for anyone earning more than
$2.5 million a year to help pay for the cuts for the middle class.
Can
Trump beat his impressive first-term record?
Add
it all up, and some progress has been made. But it is nothing close to what was
achieved in Trump’s first term. In his initial four years in the White House,
Trump managed to slash the rate of corporation tax, which had turned into one
of the highest in the world, to make it competitive again with other major
developed economies.
He
set up investment zones, sometimes as little as a few blocks in size, to
revitalise run-down areas in inner cities. And he at least tried to cut back on
red tape with a law to force legislators to cut two regulations for every new
one that was enacted. It was a successful mix, and one that was rewarded with
decent levels of growth, rising wages, and a booming stock market. Nothing like
as much has been achieved in his second term.
More
Donald Trump has
one last chance to avert a recession in the US
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Doctors
issue warning over dangerous new Covid strain in China
23
May 2025
A
new Covid variant behind a surge of hospitalizations in China has been
detected in the US.
Latest CDC data shows
the new NB.1.8.1 strain has been detected among international travelers
arriving in California, Washington state, Virginia and New York City.
The
patients came from nine countries — China, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan,
Thailand, France, the Netherlands and Spain — between April 22 and May
12.
The
variant has also been detected in Hawaii, Rhode Island and Ohio.
There
is some alarm over the new variant which is potentially more infectious than
the current dominant strains.
In
China, data shows the proportion of severely ill respiratory patients with
Covid has jumped from 3.3 to 6.3 percent over the last month.
The
proportion of Chinese ER patients testing positive for Covid had jumped from
7.5 to 16.2 percent.
Officials
in Taiwan are also reporting a surge in Covid emergency room admissions, with
the number rising 78 percent in a week over the seven-days to May 3, according
to the latest data available.
And
hospitalizations have risen to a 12-month high in Hong Kong, thought to be
driven by the new variant. Officials are telling people to mask up as a result.
The
variant has been
circulating in
the US since late March.
But
there is no
sign of a major uptick in cases at present — with the positivity rate
of swabs detecting the virus falling 12 percent in the latest week data is
available.
The
data showing arriving cases of the strain in the US was revealed by the CDC's
airport testing partner Ginkgo Bioworks and reported by CBS
News.
Experts
are closely watching the new variant, which is already dominant in China and is
on the rise in parts of Asia.
In
Taiwan, there were 19,097 visits for Covid last week, the latest available —
and the NB.1.8.1 variant has become dominant in the country.
Early
research from China suggests the NB.1.8.1 variant is better at binding to human
cells, making it more infectious.
More
Doctors issue
warning over dangerous new Covid strain in China
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Electric
car fires could become 'more common' amid urgent warnings of 'billion-dollar
recall crisis'
25 May 2025
A new report is warning that
electric vehicle fires could become more common in the coming years as more EVs
hit the road, with experts stating that battery cell technology must improve.
The latest report from 24M
Technologies, a technology company aiming to "revolutionise" battery
design and manufacturing, said fires involving EVs would increase, with an
estimated 250 million zero emission vehicles on the road by 2030.
It warned that thermal
incidents are set to increase as more EVs hit the road, with a
"significant" potential impact on public safety and profitability for
major manufacturers.
The report pointed to
research suggesting that some major markets, including the UK, have seen a 33
per cent jump in thermal runaway fires involving electric cars.
Data obtained from fire
services across the UK by QBE revealed that the number of fires increased from
89 in 2022 to 118 in 2023.
Estimates suggest that
recalls related to EV fires carry an estimated price tag of $1billion
(£746million) per vehicle model line, 24M Technologies stated, describing it as
a potential "crisis".
To combat this, the company
called for the design of battery cells to be reimagined to ensure they are
"fundamentally safer", which would also mitigate the amount
manufacturers need to spend on recalls or fixes.
Naoki Ota, President and CEO
at 24M Technologies, said: "The industry's current safety challenges stem
from decades-old battery design principles.
"While we've achieved
remarkable progress in cost reduction and energy density, we're still building
upon architectures that have not fundamentally changed in more than 30 years.
"Rather than address
these issues through add-on system features, safety must be incorporated as a
foundational element at the core of the battery cell."
More
Electric car fires could become 'more common' amid urgent warnings of
'billion-dollar recall crisis'
Lithium-ion
battery fires on the rise in Montreal, fire service warns
23 May 2025
Lithium-ion batteries are
increasingly the cause of fires in Montreal, and the city's fire service is
working to spread awareness about this growing problem.
That's according to an annual
report published by the Service de sécurité incendie de Montréal (SIM)
that says there's been a 195 per cent increase in lithium fires over the last
two years.
There were 24 such fires in
2022, 43 in 2023 and 71 in 2024.
This rise is largely due to
the increasing popularity of micromobility devices (scooters, electric
bicycles, etc.) powered by this type of battery, the report says.
Along with intensifying
awareness campaigns, the report says the SIM is working to modify municipal
regulations to better regulate the use, storage and disposal of lithium-ion
batteries.
This report comes after a
large-scale lithium battery fire in September sent a thick cloud of toxic gas
over eastern Montreal.
In that case, 15,000
kilograms of lithium batteries inside a shipping container caught fire at the
Port of Montreal.
Batteries are 'basically everywhere'
Robert Rousseau, a divisional
chief with the fire service, said lithium-ion batteries are also found in
portable electronics like smartphones and laptops.
"There's a presence
basically everywhere," he said. "If you go back about 10 years ago at
home, we used desktop computers ... Now everybody has a laptop. Nobody has
landlines anymore. So everybody has a cellphone."
There are also power tools
and other devices powered by these batteries, he said.
Rousseau said the Montreal
fire service is prepared to manage fires with specialized tools and containers
that control and suppress fires.
"We can put the
batteries on them when they ignite, so it stops the thermal reaction," he
said.
Rousseau said it is important
that people are using certified batteries that are in good condition. He said
charging cables must also be in good condition. It's important to use original
or approved accessories.
Montreal certainly isn't the
only Canadian city tackling lithium battery safety in recent years. Authorities
in cities like Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver have issued warnings.
There have been several
deaths associated with lithium-ion battery fires across Canada. According to
Vancouver Fire Rescue Services, five people were killed in the city in 2022 as
a result of batteries.
In December, the Toronto
Transit Commission board voted to ban electric bikes and scooters with
lithium-ion batteries from TTC vehicles and stations during winter due to fire concerns.
---- Batteries release
gases when burning
Along with the fire safety
risks, burning batteries release hazardous chemicals. Among them, hydrogen
fluoride, which can cause chemical burns, eye irritation and respiratory
distress.
Acute exposure can even lead
to a risk of heart attack or stroke, according to McGill University
epidemiology professor Jill Baumgartner. She said health risks depend on the
length of exposure, pollutant concentrations and individual vulnerability.
Jinhyuk Lee, assistant
professor of materials engineering at McGill University, advises against using
high-wattage fast chargers, especially for less sophisticated devices, and
recommends avoiding charging to 100 per cent.
He explained that higher
energy storage in batteries increases risk. While modern phones and electric
vehicles have software to prevent overheating, he said limiting the charge to
80 per cent is safer.
More
Lithium-ion battery fires on the rise in Montreal, fire service warns
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
“The
four most dangerous words in investing: ‘this time it’s different.’”
Sir John Templeton
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