London Irvine Report: Special Update 10/05/2025 USA And China Trade Talk Weekend.

Baltic Dry Index. 1299 -17 Brent Crude 63.91

Spot Gold 3325 U S 2 Year Yield 3.88 -02

US Federal Debt. 36.830 trillion!!!

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

Ernest Hemingway

In the stock casinos, a make or break weekend of USA v China trade talks in Geneva Switzerland.

It’s hard to see China folding or offering President Trump a way out of his tariff wars folly of trying to reverse 50+ years of offshoring globalisation in weeks or months.

Tariff team Trump rushed to meet up with a Chinese trade delegation that was already traveling though Europe. China is all too likely to see that as weakness.

After saying earlier in the week a blunt no to lowering a 145 percent tariff on China as an inducement to get China to negotiate, yesterday President Trump offered China the prospect of an 80 percent tariff.

As a negotiating tactic, to me at least, it suggests chaos, weakness, desperation.

Still, hopefully the trade talks will lead to a more positive dialog between China and the USA before the US and global economies slide into Great Depression 2.0.

Dow drops more than 100 points Friday as investors await U.S.-China trade talks: Live updates

Updated Fri, May 9 2025 4:23 PM EDT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped on Friday as investors awaited much-anticipated trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials this weekend.

The 30-stock Dow lost 119.07 points, or 0.29%, and settled at 41,249.38. The S&P 500 inched down 0.07%, closing at 5,659.91. The Nasdaq Composite ended the session little changed, ending at 17,928.92.

The talks with Chinese officials follow the U.S. and United Kingdom reaching a preliminary trade deal. Investors hope this will lead to more agreements being reached quickly. That said, a 10% tariff rate on the U.K. appears to be the baseline for the globe.

“Many Trade Deals in the hopper, all good (GREAT!) ones!,” said Trump on Truth Social, a day after announcing a preliminary trade agreement with the U.K., which marked the first deal between the U.S. and a global trading partner since Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff announcement in early April.

The president also wrote on Truth Social that an “80% Tariff on China seems right” ahead of talks led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with China counterparts in Switzerland this weekend.

While this is a de-escalation somewhat from the current 145% tariff on China, it’s still higher than many expected where the administration would go to jumpstart talks. Bloomberg News had reported earlier that the rate could be lowered below 60% as soon as this week. It was also unclear if the president is talking about a long-term tariff rate on China or a temporary one during negotiations.

“Progress this week was encouraging, but we remain in the ebbs and flows of the news cycle, which is causing market reactions. We are likely in a sideways period of volatility until we begin to get tangible (calculable) outcomes,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.

On the week, the S&P 500 slid about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq dropped roughly 0.3%. The Dow fell almost 0.2% in the period.

Stock market news for May 9, 2025

You called me. No — you called ME. Before US-China meeting, nations each say the other wanted talks

Updated 6:55 PM GMT+1, May 9, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — Who called first?

It’s the question that has put Beijing and Washington in a verbal sparring match even as the two countries are heading into a weekend meeting in Switzerland to discuss lowering sky-high tariffs that they slapped on each other in heated moments that have shaken financial markets and stirred worries about the global economy.

“The meeting is being held at the request of the U.S. side,’’ Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Wednesday.

President Donald Trump disagreed. “They said we initiated it? Well, I think they ought to go back and study their files,” Trump said Wednesday when swearing in David Perdue as the new U.S. ambassador to China. That followed weeks of each side suggesting the other side had reached out first, including Trump implying Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him, only to be refuted by Beijing.

When it comes to the world’s two largest economies readying themselves for what is expected to be tough trade talks, the public back-and-forth is no trivial matter.

“The obsession with who reached out first is a proxy fight over leverage,” said Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “For Washington, signaling that Beijing initiated the meeting reinforces the narrative that the tariffs are working. For Beijing, denying outreach preserves the illusion of parity and avoids domestic perception of weakness.”

Jockeying for dominance

Daniel Russel, a former U.S. diplomat who oversaw East Asian and Pacific affairs, called the exchange “part diplomatic stalemate and part dominance display worthy of a nature documentary.”

In his decades-long career as a diplomat, Russel said he is unaware of a single instance where a Chinese leader initiated a call with a U.S. president. “It may be pride, it may be protocol, but for Beijing, being the demandeur is to show weakness — and that’s something the Chinese system is hardwired to avoid,” said Russel, now vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

The Trump’s administration is less accommodating. “Their position is: ‘If Xi wants the tariffs lifted, he knows how to reach us,’” Russel said.

Not long after Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% and Beijing retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, Trump suggested that China, like many other countries, was in talks with his administration. On April 22, he apparently directed White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt to say “we’re doing very well” regarding a potential trade deal with China.

“I think it’s a process that’s going to go pretty quickly with China,” Trump said on the same day. “I think we’re going to live together very happily and ideally work together.”

Back and forth ... and back again

Yet China quickly denied any talk towards a deal. When asked about such negotiations, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun responded: “All is fake news.” The next day, Guo asked the U.S. to “stop creating confusion” on tariff talks.

Then came a TIME magazine interview when Trump claimed Xi had called him. Details? None provided. When? Trump didn’t say. “He’s called. And I don’t think that’s a sign of weakness on his behalf,” Trump said in the interview published on April 25. Beijing dismissed it, saying there was no recent leadership phone call.

Yet soon the word started to spread on China’s social media that the Trump administration was contacting Beijing, and it was confirmed a few days later by the Chinese Commerce Ministry.

The U.S. had “repeatedly” and “proactively” conveyed messages to China recently to express the hope to engage in negotiations with China, the ministry said on May 2. “In this regard, the Chinese side is assessing it,” the ministry said, in an apparent off-ramp move climbdown that prepared the public opinion for the announcement a few days later that Vice Premier He Lifeng would meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Switzerland this weekend.

China and US go back and forth about who called the other first | AP News

First Chinese freight ship goods hit with Trump’s 145%-plus tariffs arriving at U.S. ports

Published Fri, May 9 2025 9:19 AM EDT Updated Fri, May 9 2025 2:29 PM EDT

The first shipping containers carrying Chinese products that are subject to President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs have begun arriving in U.S. ports.

Seven ships carrying upward of 12,000 containers that sailed from China after those tariffs took effect have arrived at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, in California. Five more such ships are scheduled to arrive there in coming days.

Amazon, Home Depot, Ikea, Ralph Lauren and Tractor Supply are among the companies with Chinese goods in these containers, spanning a wide range of consumer items.

In addition to housewares, apparel, and furniture, Amazon imported a wide variety of products on behalf of sellers, including refrigerators, deep fryers, mousepads, bookshelves and living room sofas.

Tractor Supply shipments include portable drum fans, garden tools, and men’s work boots.

Lamps and ceiling fans have been processed through customs for Home Depot.

A Tractor Supply spokesperson referred CNBC to its recent earnings call on April 24 when the company pointed to “notable uncertainty” as a result of the tariffs. “Tractor Supply is actively working with its vendor and supply chain partners to navigate the impact of recently announced tariffs, while also monitoring the broader macroeconomic factors impacting its customers,” the spokesperson said.

Ikea furniture; Speedo swim goggles and swim caps; Procter & Gamble tissue holders; Samsung printed circuit boards, microwaves and refrigerator parts; Ralph Lauren sweaters, cashmere, and blazers; Dr. Martens Airwair footwear; Samsung microwaves and refrigerator parts; LG washing machines, air conditioners, ranges, refrigerators and dishwashers; Bauer Hockey sporting goods; Lenovo computer parts; auto parts for Valeo North America; and headsets and computer keyboards for Polaris, were all among the Chinese container goods.

For many of the companies, products in categories deemed as essential to replenish are brought in despite concerns about consumer demand and an economic slowdown.

Amazon said in a statement sent by email that it is working with its “broad, varied range of valued selling partners in our store to support them in adapting to the evolving environment while maintaining broad selection and low prices for customers.”

Home Depot is in a quiet period ahead of announcing its quarterly results, and referred CNBC to an existing statement citing “a fluid environment.”

“We, together with our vendors, are monitoring developments and will work closely to manage with the goal of being our customers’ advocate for value,” a Home Depot spokesperson said.

Chinese freight container traffic decline

Trump suggested on Friday, ahead of key trade talks, that he was willing to lower tariffs on China to 80%, a rate many businesses would likely still consider to be extremely high.

“80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B,” Trump said in a Truth Social post, referring to a planned meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and counterparts from China in Switzerland this weekend.

Chinese goods hit by Trump 145% tariffs begin arriving at U.S. ports

Detroit Three automakers blast Trump UK trade deal

By David Shepardson and Kalea Hall May 9, 20255:37 PM GMT+1

WASHINGTON/DETROIT, May 9 (Reuters) - A group representing General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab, Ford (F.N), opens new tab and Stellantis (STLAM.MI), opens new tab blasted President Donald Trump's trade deal announced with the United Kingdom, saying it would harm the U.S. auto sector.

British carmakers will be given a quota of 100,000 cars a year that can be sent to the United States at a 10% tariff rate, almost the total Britain exported last year, compared to 25% for Mexico and Canada and nearly all other countries.

"Under this deal, it will now be cheaper to import a UK vehicle with very little U.S. content than a USMCA compliant vehicle from Mexico or Canada that is half American parts," the American Automotive Policy Council, which represents the Detroit Three automakers, said on Thursday. "This hurts American automakers, suppliers, and auto workers."

U.S. automakers are concerned this could be a template for other agreements that could put vehicles they assemble in Canada or Mexico at a disadvantage.

White House spokesperson on Friday Kush Desai defended the deal.

"No president has taken a greater personal interest in reviving the American auto industry than President Trump. The Trump administration is working hand-in-glove with automakers to reshore manufacturing that is critical to our national and economic security, including with custom-tailored tariff relief and deregulatory policies," he said.

The automakers' group added it hopes "this preferential access for UK vehicles over North American ones does not set a precedent for future negotiations with Asian and European competitors."

Trump last month softened the blow of his auto tariffs by easing the impact of tariffs on parts and materials but left in place 25% tariffs on imported vehicles. He also extended a duty-free exemption for North American parts that comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA) rules of origin.

Automakers have hoped that Trump would ease vehicle tariffs.

Ford this week confirmed it hiked prices of some Mexican-built vehicles because of tariffs and said Trump's trade war would add about $2.5 billion in costs for 2025, but expects to reduce that exposure by around $1 billion.

Rival GM said tariffs were projected to cost it between $4 billion and $5 billion, but it expected to offset that by at least 30%, while Toyota projected tariff costs for April and May at around $1.2 billion.

Detroit Three automakers blast Trump UK trade deal | Reuters

In other news JLR’s Jaguar brand ruined by management.

Jaguar Land Rover is Latest 'Go Woke, Go Broke' Casualty: Drops 'Woke' Ad Agency After Sales Plummet

9 May 2025

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has slammed the brakes on its advertising strategy, sending shockwaves through the automotive industry. The British carmaker is severing ties with its ad agency, Accenture Song after a controversial rebrand sparked fierce backlash and a catastrophic sales drop.

Launched on 18 November 2024, the campaign swapped Jaguar's iconic 'growler' logo for a minimalist 'J' and featured a car-less advert with vibrant, androgynous models and slogans like 'Live Vivid.'

Branded 'woke' by critics, including Reform UK's Nigel Farage, who gloated 'Go woke, go broke!', the rebrand seemed to have alienated loyal customers. With sales plummeting and JLR now seeking a new creative direction, is this a wake-up call for brands chasing divisive marketing trends?

Halt the Flop Reclaim the Roar

The rebrand aimed to reposition Jaguar as a bold, electric-only luxury brand by 2026, targeting a younger, global audience. Instead, it backfired spectacularly.

The advert, awash in bright colours and abstract messaging, drew mockery for omitting cars entirely, prompting Tesla's Elon Musk to quip, 'Do you sell cars?' on X. Sales figures paint a dire picture: Jaguar's global sales crashed to 33,320 in 2024 from 61,661 in 2022, nearly halving in two years.

Used car sales also fell 9% post-rebrand, reflecting eroded consumer confidence. JLR's decision to review its creative account, currently held by Accenture Song until mid-2026, signals a frantic effort to restore Jaguar's heritage and reconnect with its core market.

Steer Through Backlash Regain Trust

The backlash wasn't just about aesthetics, it was a cultural misstep. The campaign's avant-garde vibe, featuring a bright pink concept car and diverse models, was seen as abandoning Jaguar's traditional buyers: affluent, heritage-conscious drivers.

Marketing experts were divided, with some calling it 'bonkers' and others praising its 'genius disruption'. Yet, the public's reaction was overwhelmingly negative, with social media amplifying the outrage.

Jaguar Land Rover is Latest 'Go Woke, Go Broke' Casualty: Drops 'Woke' Ad Agency After Sales Plummet

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

China’s exports surge as shipments to Southeast Asian countries offset plunge in U.S. trade

Published Thu, May 8 2025 11:16 PM EDT

China’s exports surged in April on the back of a jump in shipments to Southeast Asian countries, offsetting a sharp drop in outbound goods to the U.S. as prohibitive tariffs kicked in.

Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, according to data released by customs authority on Friday, sharply beating Reuters’ poll estimates of a 1.9% rise.

Imports slumped by just 0.2% in April from a year earlier, compared with economists’ expectations of a 5.9% drop.

China’s shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, according to CNBC’s calculation of official customs data. Chinese U.S.-bound shipments had risen 9.1% in March, as exporters rushed to frontload orders ahead of tariff hikes.

In the first four months this year, China’s exports to the U.S. dropped 2.5% while imports fell 4.7% from a year earlier, according to official data.

The surge in overall exports could be partly due to transshipment through third countries and contracts that were signed before the tariffs were announced, Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint asset management said in a note. Zhang expects trade data to weaken gradually in the next few months.

China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations surged 20.8% in April from a year earlier, accelerating from a 11.6% growth in March. While Vietnam and Malaysia remained the main destinations for Chinese exports to the region, Indonesia and Thailand saw shipments from China grow 37% and 28% year on year, respectively.

Meanwhile, China’s exports to the European Union rose 8.3%, while imports fell 16.5% year on year. Exports had risen by 10.3%, while imports had dropped 7.5% in March.

U.S. President Donald Trump has placed tariffs of 145% on imports from China, prompting it to retaliate with tariffs of 125% on American imports. So far, both sides have sought to blunt the economic impact of triple-digit levies by granting exemptions on certain critical products.

The number of container vessels from China to the U.S. had dropped dramatically toward the end of April, Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Bank said in a note Thursday.

Chinese authorities have ramped up stimulus efforts in recent weeks to counter the impact from tariffs on its economy, with steps including easing monetary policy and measures to support tariff-hit businesses.

China’s factory activity fell to a 16-month low in April, with a gauge on new export orders dropping to its lowest since December 2022.

Concerns have been growing that the fallout from tariffs would soon spill over to the job market, with Goldman Sachs estimating the county could lose 16 million jobs, or 2% of its labor force, involved in the production of U.S.-bound goods.

-----Investors would follow closely the upcoming meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in Switzerland over the weekend that has raised the prospects for a potential de-escalation in the ongoing trade war.

The planned meeting would mark the first high-level U.S.-China trade talks since the latest tariff escalations in April. U.S. Senator Steve Daines met Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in March.

While reaching a comprehensive deal is likely to be complex and time-consuming, a phased rollback of tariffs from both sides is possible, although analysts are split on the pace of such de-escalation.

“Tariff de-escalation, if it materializes, would serve as a major positive for Chinese equities,” said Laura Wang, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, while cautioning that the negotiation process would be “lengthy, with ups and downs.”

The investment bank projects U.S. effective tariffs on Chinese goods could be lowered from the current prohibitive levels to a terminal rate of 45% by year-end, while a “durable resolution remains elusive.”

A slew of Wall Street banks had lowered their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year to around 4%, citing tariff-inflicted pains, what would be a significant shortfall to Beijing’s growth target of around 5%.

China’s April exports to U.S. plunge 21%, overall shipments jump 8.1%

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Approx. 14 minutes.

Huawei’s Secret EUV Machine JUST Replaced ASML! U.S $400 BILLION Chip Blockade & Sanctions BACKFIRE

Huawei’s Secret EUV Machine JUST Replaced ASML! U.S $400 BILLION Chip Blockade & Sanctions BACKFIRE - YouTube

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

This weekend’s music diversion. Michele Mascitti. Who? Approx. 11 minutes.

Michele Mascitti (1664-1760) - Concerto a sei stromenti (1727)

Michele Mascitti (1664-1760) - Concerto a sei stromenti (1727)

This weekend’s tariff and shipping diversion. Approx. 30 minutes.