Baltic
Dry Index. 1421 +10
Brent Crude 61.21
Spot Gold 3360 US 2 Year Yield 3.83 unch.
US Federal Debt. 36.813 trillion!!!
The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
Alan Greenspan
In the global stock casinos, more disconnect from President Trump’s growing real economy reality.
With each passing week of Trump tariff turmoil, the just in time supply chain economy gets more and more disrupted.
Without a major capitulation from Trump and a tariff U-turn, the US and glonal economies are roughly about eight weeks from seizing up.
Tariff wars? What could possibly go wrong?
For more on Trump’s early tariff effect on US ports, scroll down to today‘s last section.
Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rise as investors
assess trade developments in the region
Updated Tue, May 6 2025 12:11 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Tuesday
as investors assessed trade developments between the U.S. and countries in the
region, with focus also on Asian currencies that have been strengthening on the
back of a declining dollar.
India has reportedly proposed zero tariffs on steel, auto
components and pharmaceuticals on a reciprocal basis and up to a certain amount
of imports, while Malaysia said Monday that Washington
had agreed for further talks and there could be a cut in tariffs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC
Monday that the U.S. was “very close to some deals,” echoing comments from U.S.
President Donald Trump a day earlier that there could be some agreements as
early as this week.
China stocks resumed trading after the
Labor Day holidays amid signs of Washington and Beijing
taking a more conciliatory approach to resolving trade disputes after
resorting to tit-for-tat tariffs.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 index rose 0.95% while
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added
0.67%.
China’s Caixin
services purchasing managers’ index came in at a seven-month low of
50.7 in April, compared to 51.9 in the previous month.
Over in India, the benchmark Nifty 50 fell 0.15% while
the BSE Sensex moved up 0.14% in early trade.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark
was last seen flat.
Japanese and South Korean markets are
closed for public holidays.
U.S. stock
futures were little changed as investors awaited the start of the
Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting since U.S. President Donald Trump
announced “reciprocal” tariffs in early April. The two-day policy meeting will
begin on Tuesday stateside, with a rate decision expected Wednesday. Fed funds
futures trading points to just a 2.7% chance of a rate cut, according to
the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS
Investment Management, believes that Fed chair Jerome Powell is “all but
certain to express a wait-and-see attitude” at the meeting.
“The chaos of U.S. tariff policy leaves
the future macroeconomic landscape especially challenging to discern ... given
that the Fed just slowed the pace of QT [quantitative tightening], Powell is
unlikely to feel the need to do anything more in this space in the near term,”
he wrote in a Tuesday note.
Overnight
stateside, stocks fell with the S&P 500 ending a nine-day
rally as investors monitored the latest developments on global trade.
The broad-market index shed 0.64% to close
at 5,650.38, while the Nasdaq
Composite dipped 0.74% to end at 17,844.24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
98.60 points, or 0.24%, to settle at 41,218.83. The S&P 500 came into the
session riding a nine-day winning streak, its longest since 2004.
Asia
markets live: Stocks mostly rise
S&P 500 futures are little changed as Wall
Street looks to Fed policy meeting: Live updates
Updated Tue, May 6 2025 12:01 AM EDT
S&P 500 futures fell early Tuesday, as
investors awaited the start of the Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting since
President Donald Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs in early April.
S&P 500 futures flickered
under 0.2%. Futures tied to
the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down just 26 points. Nasdaq-100 futures slipped
0.35%.
During Monday’s main session, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% to snap
its nine-day rally — its longest winning streak since 2004. The
tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped
0.7%, while the Dow slipped
0.2%.
Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh upon
the markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told
CNBC on Monday that “we’re very close to some deals,” echoing comments
from Trump on Sunday that agreements could come as early as this week. A
Bloomberg report citing people familiar said that India has
proposed zero tariffs on certain goods.
Nonetheless, no official trade deals
between the U.S. and its trading partners have yet been announced.
While data issued on Monday from the
Institute for Supply Management showed stronger-than-anticipated service sector
activity in April, concerns around tariffs lingered.
Investors are now keeping a close eye on
the Fed’s two-day policy meeting set to kick off on Tuesday, followed by an
announcement on rates Wednesday afternoon. Although fed funds futures trading suggests just a 2.7% chance
of the central bank cutting rates, traders will be listening for Fed Chair
Jerome Powell’s comments on his economic outlook.
“We could see temporary disruptions from a
supply-chain perspective and a slowdown in growth if not a short and shallow
recession. It may also temporarily impact inflation and keep the Federal
Reserve in a difficult position on flexibility with interest rates,” said Megan
Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors.
“However... we do not see this as a
long-drawn-out disruption,” she added. “Countries around the world are too
intertwined and dependent upon each other to not see some agreements made
sooner than later.”
On the economic front, data on the U.S.
trade deficit for March is due on Tuesday morning.
Investors will also await earnings reports
from DoorDash in the morning, followed by Advanced Micro Devices and Super
Micro Computer in the afternoon.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Ford Delivers Bad News on Trump’s Tariffs
May 5, 2025 at 11:15 PM GMT+1
Ford Motor Co. became the latest big
name to warn that President Donald Trump’s trade war is about to do significant
damage at home. The iconic US company said it suspended its full-year
financial guidance, pinning
the blame in part on auto tariffs. Ford said it expects Trump’s levies
to reduce 2025 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes by about $1.5
billion on a net basis this year.
Several automakers have warned of
the steep
costs they expect to pay due to Trump’s chaotic tariff campaign
and subsequent retaliation by other nations. Trump has argued that the 25%
tariffs he’s imposed on imported vehicles and parts are needed to bring more
production and jobs to the US. But most economists predict the opposite will be
achieved, while a growing number of lawsuits contend Trump’s entire tariff
initiative is
illegal under US law.
In the meantime, automakers have said that
broad, lasting tariffs will boost costs, jeopardize employment and potentially
increase new-car prices that are already nearing $50,000 on average.
Ford’s shares fell 2.8% in after-hours trading Monday. The stock had gained
about 3.8% this year through Friday’s close, better than the 3.3% decline by
the S&P 500 Index. The company said it plans to provide an updated outlook
when it reports second-quarter earnings. —Natasha
Solo-Lyons and David
E. Rovella
Ford
Delivers More Bad News on Trump’s Tariffs: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
In other news, buy now for Christmas 2025. Banksters,
those criminal gnomes of Credit Swiss bank.
U.S. retailers scramble to secure China-made
Christmas merchandise as tariff uncertainty persists
Published Fri, May 2 2025 2:17 AM EDT Updated
13 Min Ago
For years, Christmas merchandise has been
hitting U.S. stores well ahead of the holidays, as retailers try to
capitalize on the lucrative holiday season — a phenomenon known as “Christmas
creep.” This year, however, retailers risk empty shelves during the
holiday itself.
Tariffs could be the Grinch that disrupts
year-end festivities, even as Chinese factories and their U.S. customers
navigate tariff uncertainties to ensure that shelves stateside are well-stocked
in time for Christmas.
Shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump
unveiled sweeping tariffs on April 2 — including a 34% tariff on imports from
China that were later ramped up to 145% — many U.S. retailers halted their
orders from Chinese suppliers, forcing factories
to pause production,
according to CNBC interviews.
However, industry representatives say that
some production has restarted in the last few days, as businesses in the
U.S. resume orders, with concerns over business disruptions and missed
opportunities outweighing tariff uncertainties.
“If you don’t start producing in the next
couple of weeks, you’re going to start missing Black Friday and Christmas,”
Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave
Solutions, said in a phone interview Tuesday.
“Both sides are trying to be flexible to
some degree,” he said. “Retailers are starting to realize if these supply
chains stop, it will be much more difficult to get them up and running
[again].”
Johnson described how, for example, a
pause in orders for a factory making spoons would impact the company that rolls
the steel, as well as the iron ore smelter. “These supply chains themselves,
the upstream, are also starting to close down. If they close down, even if we
have some kind of a deal, it will take time for things to [restart].”
Despite some rerouting of China-made goods
through other countries, replacing existing supply chains and shipping
schedules will be difficult to achieve overnight. For 36% of U.S. imports from
China, more than 70% can only be sourced from mainland suppliers, according to
a Goldman Sachs
analysis earlier in April.
Aldik Home, a home goods store in Los
Angeles, generates two-thirds of its sales during the Christmas season, selling
an extensive array of artificial Christmas trees, ornaments, ribbons, wreaths,
garlands and other decorations.
Bryan Gold, manager of the family-run
business, said he placed this year’s Christmas orders in January and is
expecting eight shipping containers of holiday decorations now en route from
China — where it sources over 95% of the store’s inventory. “There is no
domestic production of any of the Christmas products that we sell,” Gold said.
Due to the current tariffs, the store now
faces a customs bill of about $1 million. Gold said the added cost leaves him
no choice but to pass it on to consumers: “We do not have a million-dollar
cushion in our margins.”
One of the store’s most popular Christmas
trees sold for $1,000 last year could cost up to $2,500 this year, Gold said.
That’s if they come through from the ports at all, he said.
More
Chinese factories
halt, restart work to mitigate U.S. tariff disruption
‘Dumpster fire’: Retailers urge shoppers to buy
now before tariffs raise prices
Published Sun, May 4 2025 8:00 AM EDT
Retailers bracing for consumer spending to
drop are using President Donald
Trump’s trade war as
a marketing strategy, urging consumers to buy now before tariffs lead to price
increases or potential shortages.
A host of private and direct-to-consumer
brands such as Beis, Bare Necessities, Fashion Nova and Knix have mentioned
tariffs in marketing campaigns in the weeks since Trump announced his plans for
steep so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries.
While the administration later temporarily
lowered rates
for most countries, the announcement sent the retail industry into crisis mode
because it is nearly impossible for businesses to plan while they don’t know
how tariffs will ultimately shake out. Experts widely expect consumer spending
will fall,
creating challenges for companies big and small that could struggle to weather
that storm.
Some companies importing goods from China
that now face a 145% duty have paused or canceled orders, while those with
supply chains in other parts of Asia such as Vietnam
and Cambodia are
trying to stock up now as higher tariffs are still on pause.
The exact impact varies by retailer,
sector and brand. But Trump’s trade war poses an existential crisis to many
retailers that make their money selling consumers products they could
ultimately live without.
Some brands, such as lingerie store Bare
Necessities, did an outright “pre-tariff sale.” The company offered discounts
of around 30% as it told consumers to “stock up before tariffs hit.”
“Tariffs? No clue. A good deal? We got
you. Save up to 30% before prices shift,” Bare Necessities said to customers in
a text message. “We didn’t know how to spell tariff last week, but we do know
this: up to 30% off is a good idea!” it said in another message.
Temporarily lowering prices as brands
brace for costs to rise might feel counterintuitive, but anything retailers can
do to “shore up their overall financials” ahead of a potential drop off in
spending is a smart move, said Sonia Lapinsky, a partner and managing director
at consulting firm AlixPartners.
“Retailers should be doing anything they
can to get as much demand as possible, as soon as possible, because from our
perspective, things are going to really fall off a cliff. … We’ve been seeing a
very skittish customer since about February, March, and it’s only gotten worse
as the tariff talk has gotten kind of more constant,” said Lapinsky.
“They don’t want to give away all the
margin now, but it’s a trade-off, right? Like it’s better to have 80% of the
dollars now versus having to clear things or not getting any demand in the door
two months from now. I think they’re really desperately trying to kind of
forecast what this year looks like, and having a really challenging time.”
For smaller brands that lack the scale and
maturity of their larger counterparts, boosting cash flow before demand falls
could be critical to their survival.
Tariffs are “going to impact every
business, but I think it’s going to impact [smaller companies] more because
they have fewer global options from their supply chain,” said Lauren
Beitelspacher, a professor of marketing at Babson College in Massachusetts. “If
you think about like a Target and a Walmart, I mean, they definitely have more
of a global supply chain where they’re able to source from countries all around
the world versus smaller brands … they have limited options.”
Pre-tariff promotions could be a reason
why some spending data
in March came
in better than expected because some shoppers are making purchases
now before
prices rise — particularly big-ticket items such as cars.
“People who have the means are hearing all
this talk, they’re hearing some of the advertisements, and they’re actually
getting out there shopping so that they can get their purchases in before the
prices go up,” said Lapinsky.
Other brands, such as luggage company
Beis, did not do an outright pre-tariff sale. The brand sent a letter to
shoppers explaining it did not know if prices would increase or by how much,
but rates would not change — “for now.”
“Let’s skip the corporate-speak: This
tariff situation is a complete dumpster fire, and we’re all getting burned.
Here’s the situation: Costs are up, and unfortunately, our prices will have to
follow suit,” Beis’ team wrote in the letter, adding that it is “financially
traumatized.” “You’re probably wondering what this means for your cart.
Unfortunately, so are we. Honestly, we’re just as confused as everyone else.
But changes are coming. What kind of changes? Don’t know. When? Could be
tomorrow or … ok we don’t know that either.”
More
Retailers urge
shoppers to buy before Trump tariffs raise prices
Credit Suisse to pay $511 million for helping U.S.
taxpayers hide over $4 billion overseas
Published Mon, May 5 2025 4:27 PM EDT
Credit Suisse Services AG will pay nearly $511 million
after pleading guilty in a criminal case to having conspired with wealthy
American taxpayers to
hide more than $4 billion in at least 475 offshore accounts, the Department of Justice said.
In addition to that plea, the UBS subsidiary also entered
into a non-prosecution agreement with prosecutors in connection with U.S.
accounts that were booked at Credit Suisse AG Singapore.
“Between 2014 and June 2023, Credit Suisse
AG Singapore held undeclared accounts for U.S. persons, which Credit Suisse AG
Singapore knew or should have known were U.S., with total assets valued at over
$2 billion,” the DOJ said.
The criminal conspiracy to which Credit
Suisse admitted guilt allowed “ultra-high-net-worth and high-net-worth
individual clients” of the Swiss financial
services corporation to evade their U.S. tax obligations from 2010 through
2021, according to the DOJ.
“In doing so, Credit Suisse AG committed
new crimes and breached its May 2014 plea agreement with the United States,” the
department said.
Credit Suisse in 2014 pleaded guilty to
helping U.S. taxpayers hide offshore accounts from the IRS, and paid $2.6
billion to settle the case. At the time, it was the largest ever payment in a
criminal tax case.
The firm on Monday pleaded guilty to one
count of conspiracy to aid and assist in the preparation of false income tax
returns in U.S. District Court in Alexandria, Virginia.
The tax loss from the accounts to the
United States cited in the case was more than $71 million, and Credit Suisse’s
associated revenues from the accounts exceeded $108.6 million, according to a
court filing.
The DOJ said that under a plea agreement,
Credit Suisse and UBS are “required to cooperate fully with ongoing
investigations and affirmatively disclose any information it may later uncover
regarding U.S.-related accounts.”
“The agreements provide no protections for
any individuals,” the DOJ said.
More
Credit
Suisse settles criminal case for helping Americans avoid taxes
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trump
announces 100% tariff for movies produced outside U.S.
Published
Sun, May 4 2025 9:24 PM EDT
U.S.
President Donald Trump announced Sunday a 100% tariff on movies
produced outside of the United States, saying the U.S. movie
industry was dying a “very fast death” due to the incentives that other
countries were offering to draw American filmmakers.
“This
is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security
threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and
propaganda,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
Trump said
he was authorizing the relevant U.S. government agencies such as the Department
of Commerce to immediately begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on
all films produced abroad that are then sent into the United States.
Trump added:
“WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!”
Commerce
Secretary Howard Lutnick posting on X said: “We’re on it.”
Neither
Lutnick nor Trump provided any details on the implementation. It was
not immediately clear whether the move would target production companies,
foreign or American, producing films overseas.
Film and
television production in Los Angeles has fallen by nearly 40% over the last
decade, according to FilmLA, a non-profit that tracks the region’s
production.
Meanwhile,
governments around the world have offered more generous tax credits and cash
rebates to lure productions, and capture a greater share of the $248 billion
that Ampere Analysis predicts will be spent globally in 2025 to produce
content.
The
post by Trump comes after he has triggered a trade war with China,
and imposed global tariffs which have roiled markets and led to fears of a U.S.
recession.
Former
senior Commerce official William Reinsch, a senior fellow with the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, said retaliation against Trump’s
foreign movies tariffs would be devastating.
“The
retaliation will kill our industry. We have a lot more to lose than to gain,”
he said, adding that it would be difficult to make a national security or
national emergency case for movies.
Trump announces
100% tariff for movies produced outside U.S.
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today,
something different. Putting Trump’s tariff war on China into shipping
perspective. For now, shipping is
slowing not stopping. But it slows at a faster pace as time goes on without
tariff relief. For now, tariff inflation is hardly present, but it grows at a
faster pace as time goes on without tariff relief.
But
here’s what’s happening from an expert. Approx 21 minutes.
US
Port Update - May 4, 2025 | Trade Wars: Port of Los Angeles Says Imports are
Dropping
US Port Update - May 4, 2025 | Trade Wars:
Port of Los Angeles Says Imports are Dropping
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
It is a
sobering fact that the prominence of central banks in this century has
coincided with a general tendency towards more inflation, not less. [I]f the
overriding objective is price stability, we did better with the
nineteenth-century gold standard and passive central banks, with currency
boards, or even with 'free banking.' The truly unique power of a central bank,
after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is
the power to destroy.
Paul
Volcker
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