Thursday, 15 May 2025

Stocks, A Pause, A Wobble, Something More? US Long Bonds Rise.

Baltic Dry Index. 1267 -13          Brent Crude 64.65

Spot Gold 3140               US 2 Year Yield 4.05 +0.03

US Federal Debt. 36.851 trillion!!!

The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.

George Orwell

In the stock casinos, a pause, a wobble or something more?

My guess is something more, as while US importers and Chinese manufacturers will go all out to take advantage of shipping under the 90 day pause reduced tariffs, the global just in time supply chains have become seriously disrupted, while from day to day, no one knows where President Trump’s next U-turn will come, nor in which direction, up or down.

Look away from those rising long yields on US Treasuries now. President Trump may want lower US interest rates, but with all the global and US economies uncertainty he’s generated, investors now want higher yields for holding US Treasuries from the 2 year out.

Ominously, the 10 year bond closed at a yield of 4.53 percent yesterday, up from 4.25 percent on May 1.  Higher US mortgage rates next!

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as investors assess U.S.-China trade developments

Updated Thu, May 15 2025 12:26 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Thursday, after mostly gaining in the previous session on easing U.S.-China trade tensions.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.90%, while the Topix lost 0.75%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.29% while the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.37%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 0.42%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 lost 0.6%. India’s Nifty 50 traded flat at the open.

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 added 0.21%.

“While markets have largely priced in peak tariff-related macro stress, we remain wary of a second wave of volatility, this time driven by fiscal policy uncertainty and weakening U.S. hard data,” Citi analysts said in a note.

U.S. stock futures slipped in overnight trading after the S&P 500 index rose for a third straight day. China and the U.S. hammered out a temporary suspension of their tit-for-tat tariff dispute earlier this week.

Overnight, the S&P 500 rose modestly, extending a strong start to the week that pushed the benchmark into the green for the year. The broad market index inched up 0.10% to close at 5,892.58, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.72% and ended at 19,146.81. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 89.37 points, or 0.21%, to settle at 42,051.06.

Asia-Pacific live: U.S.-China trade

S&P 500 futures slip after index posts third consecutive winning day: Live updates

Updated Thu, May 15 2025 10:14 PM EDT

S&P 500 futures slipped in overnight trading after the broad market index strung together a third consecutive advance in reaction to the Trump administration and China hammering out a temporary suspension of their tit-for-tat tariff dispute.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures lost about 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 173 points, or 0.4%.

In after-hours trading, shares of Foot Locker surged more than 60% after The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Dick’s Sporting Goods is closing in on a deal to buy the company for roughly $2.3 billion. UnitedHealth slid 8% after the Journal reported, citing people familiar, that the Justice Department is probing the insurer. A UnitedHealth spokesman later told CNBC that the insurer has not been notified by the DOJ of the “supposed” investigation reported.

Confidence in the immediate outlook for stocks has strengthened in the wake of last weekend’s talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials that appeared to stave off a short-term decline in economic activity and a ratcheting up in inflation. The enthusiasm mostly continued Wednesday, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.7%. It was also the sixth straight winning day for the tech-heavy index. The 30-stock Dow slipped 0.2%.

Tech giants are putting up a strong showing week to date: Nvidia and Tesla are both up more than 16%, and Meta Platforms has added 11.3% in the period. Amazon and Alphabet are both up more than 8% each. The Nasdaq Composite is higher by 6.8% this week, trailed by the S&P 500, ahead 4.11%, and the Dow, up 1.9%.

Sentiment was bolstered Tuesday by the latest reading on consumer inflation showing prices rising at a slower pace than Wall Street economists had expected. Inflation increased by 0.2% in April excluding food and energy, below the consensus estimate of 0.3%.

Traders will look for further signs of a steady economy on Thursday, when the producer price index, retail sales and industrial production numbers for April are released before the stock market opens. Weekly jobless claims are also slated for release.

Also due out: earnings for the fiscal first-quarter from Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer.

Stock market today: Live updates

In other news, more tariff rollbacks. But with tariff reality changing almost daily, how do manufacturers,  importers and retailers plan?

Trump tariffs live updates: US slashes 'de minimis' tariff, China lifts Boeing ban amid trade war thaw

Updated Tue 13 May 2025 at 6:31 pm BST 

White House executive order Monday slashed the "de minimis" tariff on China shipments to 54% from 120%, with a $100 flat fee starting May 14. It served as the latest in a broad thawing of trade-war tensions between the US and China, after the two powers paused most tariffs for 90 days and sent markets into euphoria

Both nations pledged to cut their broad, ballooning tariffs after weekend talks. US tariffs dropped to 30% from 145%, while China’s moved to 10% from 125%, per a joint statement.

"The consensus from both delegations this weekend is neither side wants a decoupling," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday. "And what had occurred with these very high tariffs ... was the equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that. We do want trade."

The US said the tariff reductions would be in effect for 90 days while talks proceed. President Trump said Monday that he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon, "maybe at the end of the week."

US equity markets cheered the news on Monday on renewed “Buy America” momentum. However, stocks were more muted on Tuesday, even as the April Consumer Price Index report showed consumer prices rose at the slowest pace since early 2021 while Trump's tariffs were in effect.

Also on Tuesday, it was reported that China has lifted its ban on Boeing (BA) plane deliveries.

Broader optimism for a comprehensive shift in US policy grew last week as Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, the first for his administration since imposing — then pausing — sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs against all trading partners in early April.

Meanwhile, US negotiations with the UK's neighbors in the EU have taken a different tone, with the EU on Thursday unveiling a list of US products it will target with tariffs in the event trade negotiations fail.

On the economic front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized last week that while sentiment has deteriorated, the tariff "shock hasn't hit yet."

Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world.

Tue, May 13, 2025 at 6:31 PM GMT+1

Grace O'Donnell

Car dealers shield buyers from tariff price hikes in April

Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed auto prices were unchanged in April from the previous month despite the 25% tariffs on foreign-made cars that began on April 3.

Car buyers may have dealers to thank for not upping the sticker price on a new set of wheels.

More

Trump tariffs live updates: US slashes 'de minimis' tariff, China lifts Boeing ban amid trade war thaw

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US set to dodge recession after President Donald Trump's trade deal with China

May 13, 2025

The United States looks likely to avoid recession after President Donald Trump’s trade deal with China, according to two Wall Street banking giants.

Goldman Sachs said it sees a 35 per cent chance of a downturn in the world’s biggest economy this year – down from its previous forecast of 45 per cent.

And JP Morgan scrapped its prediction of recession, with chief economist Michael Feroli saying: ‘The administration’s recent dialling down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the US economy slips into recession this year. 

'We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50 per cent.’

The update came as official figures showed US inflation fell to a four-year low of 2.3 per cent in April despite Trump’s tariff onslaught.

In a major de-escalation of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies, Washington this week agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 per cent to 30 per cent. 

Beijing will cut import duties on US products from 125 per cent to 10 per cent.

The deal came just days after the US agreed to slash tariffs on British cars, steel and aluminium in a deal Trump said was only possible ‘because of Brexit’.

By contrast, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said a deal with Europe ‘may be a bit slower’ because the EU has a ‘collective action problem’.

US set to dodge recession after President Donald Trump's trade deal with China

In Depth: China’s Exporters Get More Help to Withstand Trump’s Trade War

Published: May. 14, 2025  5:49 p.m.  GMT+8

Uncertainty over the outlook for China’s exports amid the tariff war with the U.S. has prompted the Chinese government to step up support for two trade credit insurance programs as part of its strategy to help exporters weather the shock.

Beijing and Washington have now moved to de-escalate their dispute, which had seen the U.S. impose additional levies of as much as 145% on imports from China. After two days of talks in Geneva, senior officials from the two countries jointly announced on May 12 that most of the additional tariffs they had imposed on each other would be suspended for 90 days or removed, while negotiations continue to resolve a string of economic and trade issues between the two countries.

More, subscription required.

In Depth: China’s Exporters Get More Help to Withstand Trump’s Trade War

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Gstar Solar begins production at 1.5/1GW solar cell and module plant in the Philippines

By Shreeyashi Ojha  May 13, 2025

Singapore-headquartered solar manufacturer Gstar Solar has started commercial production of modules at its solar cell and module plant in the Philippines.

Built in two phases, the first phase consists of 1.5GW and 1GW of solar cell and module annual nameplate capacity, respectively. Located west of the capital, the Subic production lines are fully automated, allowing flexible module switching, high-volume output, and reduced manufacturing costs, the firm said. 

In a second phase, the company expects to add 2GW of module annual nameplate capacity at its plant, located in the Subic Bay, although the company did not disclose when the second phase would be operational.

The modules produced at the manufacturing plant are N-type modules, which feature 183.75mm N-type cells in a 72-cell bifacial dual-glass format, with an output of 595W and a 23.03% conversion efficiency.  

Equipped with technologies like laser non-destructive scribing, super multi busbar (SMBB) design, and high-density encapsulation, the module offers high bifaciality, improved low-light performance, and lower temperature coefficients. The company expects to begin mass production of the modules by 18 May this year. 

Recently, the firm received a shipment of solar equipment, including monocrystalline growth furnaces and advanced control systems, for its upcoming 3GW wafer manufacturing plant in Indonesia. Construction of the wafer-slicing plant began in April 2024, and Gstar plans to start trial production this year. Once running, the plant will produce monocrystalline silicon rods and large-size silicon wafers, including 182mm and 210mm formats. 

While Singapore serves as the central hub for their operations, Gstar operates a 3GW solar cell processing plant in Thailand and 7GW aluminium frame and module factories in Laos. Beyond Southeast Asia, the company plans to set up a module assembly plant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In August 2024, the company signed an MoU with Siraj Group to build a 2GW module assembly plant for n-type technology.

Gstar Solar begins production at 1.5/1GW solar cell and module plant in the Philippines - PV Tech

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.

George Orwell


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