Wednesday, 26 February 2025

US Recession Odds Increase. Stocks Wobble.

Baltic Dry Index. 1039 +37        Brent Crude 73.20

Spot Gold 2915               US 2 Year Yield 4.07 -0.06    

US Federal Debt. 36.527 trillion!

From now on, the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other currencies. That doesn't mean, of course, that the Pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.

UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson. Liar.

In the stock casinos, more wobble. What if Warren Buffet is right to be selling out of long held stocks?

But this time it’s different, right?

European markets head for higher open as traders focus on earnings reports

Updated Wed, Feb 26 2025 12:41 AM EST

European markets are expected to open higher as investors await more earnings releases Wednesday.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 36 points higher at 8,681, Germany’s DAX up 127 points at 22,513, France’s CAC 30 points higher at 8,076 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 126 points higher at 38,911, according to data from IG.

Earnings are in the spotlight Wednesday, with releases set to come from Adecco GroupAB InBevE.OnDanone, Munich Re, UniperStellantisWolters Kluwer, Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings, Covestro and Deutsche Telekom. Data releases include the latest German and French consumer confidence figures.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight, with sentiment weighed on by further losses on Wall Street Tuesday after the U.S. consumer confidence reading came in much weaker than economists’ estimates.

U.S. stock futures rose overnight, however, with investors awaiting earnings from market bellwether Nvidia after the closing bell Wednesday. The report could be the next catalyst for the market.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings

Stock futures rise after S&P 500 posts fourth losing day; Nvidia earnings loom: Live updates

Updated Wed, Feb 26 2025 7:36 PM EST

Stock futures rose on Tuesday evening following a fourth-straight day of losses for the S&P 500. Investors are also awaiting earnings from market bellwether Nvidia.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 85 points, or about 0.2%. Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3%.

Stocks are coming off a weak session. The S&P 500 tumbled 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 1.4%. Both indexes logged their fourth consecutive losing day. The 30-stock Dow was the outlier, with a roughly 0.4% advance.

A weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading from the Conference Board weighed on stocks Tuesday. A raft of recent reports, including disappointing retail sales numbers and a weak consumer sentiment reading have spurred traders’ worries around the economy over the past week — and the major averages have suffered.

Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings, due after the closing bell Wednesday, could be the next catalyst for the market.

The report arrives at a pivotal time for Nvidia: The emergence of DeepSeek raised questions about the sustainability of the once-hot artificial intelligence trade. The chip giant and other momentum plays are also showing signs of fizzling, with Nvidia down more than 5% in 2025.

“I think as the earnings report comes out tomorrow, my expectation is it’s going to be a lot like September,” NYU Stern School of Business finance professor Aswath Damodaran said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”

“A replay of [the] September [quarter] where they will beat analyst expectations, but the market is going to be disappointed because the market seems to have set expectations higher than what analysts are seeing for the company,” he added.

Other earnings reports out Wednesday include Lowe’sTJX and Salesforce.

Economic data due on Wednesday include new home sales and building permits. The main event for investors will be the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Stock market today: Live updates

Tesla’s market cap sinks below $1 trillion as stock slumps more than 8%

Published Tue, Feb 25 2025 3:44 PM EST Updated Tue, Feb 25 2025 4:43 PM EST

Tesla’s postelection pop has almost disappeared.

Shares of the electric vehicle maker plunged more than 8% on Tuesday, pushing the company’s market cap below $1 trillion and to its lowest since Nov. 7, which was two days after President Donald Trump’s election victory.

The stock has plummeted 25% to start the year, while the Nasdaq is down just 1.5%, and has slid more than 35% from its record close on Dec. 16. CEO Elon Musk has lost more than $100 billion in net worth over that stretch, though he is still the world’s richest person, with a fortune valued at about $380 billion.

The latest slide followed a report from Reuters on Monday that Tesla’s long-awaited upgrade to its partially automated driving systems left owners disappointed. Many users told the publication that Tesla’s “navigate on city streets” feature in China fell short of Musk’s promises for self-driving technology.

Other EV makers in China, including BYD, offer their partially automated driving systems for free or a much lower cost. Xiaomi’s popular model SU7 includes the company’s equivalent technology as a standard option for free.

The report out of China added to anxiety among Tesla shareholders. Some of the concern has to do with the company’s performance and some is specific to Musk, who is spending much of his time in Washington, D.C., leading President Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.

Musk, along with his team in Washington, has gained unparalleled access to government computer systems and taxpayer data, and the president has enabled the billionaire to lead mass firings of workers in agencies tasked with oversight of his companies, including Tesla.

Musk’s extremist political rhetoric and activism has led opponents in various markets to organize protests, including at Tesla stores and service centers. Tesla’s stock dropped earlier this month on Trump’s announced plans for extensive tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which came alongside a decline in Tesla vehicle registrations across Europe in January and February.

For the fourth quarter, Tesla reported earnings and sales that missed analysts’ estimates, with automotive revenue dropping 8% from a year earlier and operating income plummeting 23%. In the late January report, the company cited reduced average selling prices across its aging lineup of Model 3, Model Y, Model S and Model X vehicles as a major reason for the decline.

According to the California New Car Dealers Association, Tesla sales dropped 11.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 in the state, which had been Tesla’s biggest market domestically.

More

Tesla's market cap sinks below $1 trillion as stock falls more than 8%

In other news.

Recession Fears Rise as US Consumer Confidence Falls

February 25, 2025 at 10:59 PM GMT

US consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy, adding to a growing stack of indicators that uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies has Americans increasingly worried about their economic future.

The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence decreased 7 points in February to 98.3, marking the third straight decline, data released Tuesday showed. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Stocks and bond yields fell after the report.

The drop in confidence was broad across age groups and incomes. Consumers were more pessimistic about current and future labor-market conditions as well as the outlook for incomes and business conditions. Perceptions of present and future financial situations worsened and the share of respondents expecting a recession in the next year rose to a nine-month high.

That pessimism has Americans cutting back their spending: According to a new study from Wells Fargo, more than half of consumers are delaying major life plans due to uncertainty over the economy and the consequences of Trump’s tariff threats. Of those, about a third said they were putting off buying a home while one in six have postponed education plans—and one in eight have pushed back retirement. Jordan Parker Erb

US Recession Fears Rise as Consumer Confidence Falls - Bloomberg

Alcoa CEO Warns 100,000 U.S. Industry Jobs at Risk Due to Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum

Chief Executive Bill Oplinger says company will advocate for the Trump administration to allow for an exemption on Canadian imports

By Connor Hart  Updated Feb. 25, 2025 12:57 pm ET

Approximately 100,000 U.S. aluminum industry jobs could be on the chopping block due to tariffs targeting the metal, according to Alcoa AA -1.86%decrease; red down pointing triangle Chief Executive William Oplinger.

The Pittsburgh-based aluminum company estimates that a 25% tariff on aluminum imports would result in about 20,000 direct U.S. industry jobs being cut and as many as 80,000 indirect jobs being eliminated, Oplinger said Tuesday at the BMO Global Metals and Mining conference.

“We’re clearly advocating based on the fact that this is bad for the aluminum industry in the U.S.,” Oplinger said. “It’s bad for American workers.”

The U.S. aluminum industry directly employs more than 164,000 workers, according to the Aluminum Association, meaning about 12% of jobs could be affected by the tariff. The industry supports nearly 700,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs, producing more than $228 billion in economic output, according to the trade group.

The projection comes after President Trump earlier this month announced 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum to the U.S., effective in March. The proclamation has left aluminum buyers, which include manufacturers of products like automobiles, beverage cans and home appliances, scrambling to stock up on the metal.

As it stands, the U.S. is short of 4 million metric tons of aluminum annually, and the deficit is made up largely through imports from Canada and Mexico, Oplinger said.

The company said it will also advocate for an exemption on Canadian imports, which would allow two-thirds of the metal consumed in the U.S. to continue to come across the border without a tariff, he said.

Alcoa has some idle capacity in the U.S., though it is “very old, very inefficient capacity that has not been run in a number of years,” Oplinger said. There are significant costs associated with restarting these operations, and uncertainty surrounding the tariff, such as how long it would be in place, makes executing strategies difficult.

“We make decisions around aluminum production that have a horizon of 20 to 40 years,” he said. “We would not be making an investment in the United States based on a tariff structure that could be in place for a much shorter period of time.”

Under current conditions, Oplinger said a tariff waged against Canada would most likely cause more global aluminum production to shift to Europe. In order to support more U.S.-based aluminum production, Alcoa would need to secure a cheap, low-cost energy source, he added.

Companies reliant upon the metal for manufacturing have issued their own warnings on the planned tariff, whose costs will likely be passed onto American consumers, according to analysts.

Aluminum can maker Ball said earlier this month it was working to renegotiate deals with its suppliers, adding that the tariff would dampen its current outlook. Chief Executive Dan Fisher said higher costs would weigh on consumers, stifling demand and slowing growth as consumers are already stressed.

Coca-Cola Chief Executive James Quincey said the tariff could make its sodas more expensive, and added the company will consider bottling more of its products in glass and plastic instead.

Alcoa CEO Warns 100,000 U.S. Industry Jobs at Risk Due to Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum - WSJ

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Top German bosses want government formed fast amid fresh signs the once-mighty economy is on its knees

24 February 2025

German business leaders have called for a government to be formed quickly amid further signs the once-mighty economy is on its knees.

After an election that saw the country shift to the Right, Friedrich Merz looks likely to lead a coalition between his victorious centre-Right CDU party and the Social Democrats.

Hopes of a more pro-business approach sent the euro higher against the dollar while the flagship Dax stock market index rose 0.3 per cent in Frankfurt.

But according to the latest report from Munich-based think-tank Ifo, business confidence continues to falter following two years of economic decline that has seen Germany dubbed ‘the sick man of Europe’.

Carsten Brzeski, an economist at bank ING, said the report shows ‘the economy remains stuck in stagnation’. 

Business leaders said Germany could not afford any delay as companies suffer from high costs, red tape and intense competition from overseas.

‘We don’t need any further discussions, the problems are well known – we need implementation now,’ said Roland Busch, chief executive of engineering and industrial giant Siemens.

Christian Sewing, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, the country’s largest lender, said: ‘Germany now needs a government that is able and willing to act – and quickly. 

'The challenges facing our country are enormous. The economy urgently needs a fresh start with fundamental reforms.’

Top German bosses want government formed fast amid fresh signs the once-mighty economy is on its knees

German business morale stagnates in February ahead of election

24 February 2025

BERLIN (Reuters) -Business morale in Germany unexpectedly stagnated in February, a survey showed on Monday, dealing a tough hand to a future government after Sunday's election in which parties promised to lift Europe's top economy out of a perpetual downturn.

The Ifo institute said its business climate index remained flat at 85.2 in February after revising the January reading up slightly to the same figure.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a second monthly rise in the reading to 85.8.

Sunday's election delivered a win to the conservative CDU/CSU opposition of Friedrich Merz, who has promised to cut red tape, encourage investment and bring down energy prices to boost Germany's shrinking economy.

Ifo's current conditions index fell unexpectedly to 85.0 in February from 86.0 in January, while the expectations index rose to 85.4 from 84.3, according to the Munich-based institute's monthly survey of some 9,000 companies.

COALITION TALKS

"The German economy is in waiting," said Ifo president Clemens Fuest, as the country enters a phase of government-building talks in which a grand coalition appears the most likely outcome.

Analysts have pointed to some signs of stability on the horizon but also warned that a strong opposition made up of parties on the far left and right may complicate efforts for reform, for example of the country's debt rules that limit spending.

"It is important that the new government takes swift action to stimulate the economy. The prerequisite for this is that there are rapid coalition negotiations with a positive outcome," said Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank Group.

"The figure emphasises that the German economy has hit rock bottom and that growth-friendly reforms are urgently needed," said Jens-Oliver Niklasch, senior economist at the LBBW bank, adding however that sluggish foreign trade was not a problem easily solved domestically.

"A real improvement in the economy can only be expected in the second half of the year at best. For the current year, we continue to expect a renewed contraction in economic output," Niklasch added.

Europe's largest economy is smarting from two consecutive years of decline. Another contraction in 2025 would mark the longest period of weakness in the country's post-war history.

German business morale stagnates in February ahead of election

Imminent recession? DOGE’s mass layoffs spark fears of broader economic ripple effect

February 23, 2025 Story by Daria Solovieva

The teams at Doge, which is run by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have targeted agencies including the Department of Agriculture, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Department of Education, the Department of Energy, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Homeland Security, Internal Revenue Service, National Park Service, Department of Veterans Affairs and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

At least 85,000 federal workers have been impacted so far, with tens of thousands being fired or accepting “deferred resignation.” At the Office of Personnel Management alone, an estimated about 75,000 federal employees took the offer as of last week, the AP reported. 

While most Americans support the idea of making the government run more efficiently, the way these layoffs are carried out is raising concerns about the immediate and long-term impact on the U.S. economy.

“It seems almost unavoidable at this point that we are headed for a deep, deep recession,” Jesse Rothstein, an economist and professor at UC Berkeley, in a viral post on Bluesky on Tuesday. “Just based on 200k+ federal firings and pullback of contracts, the March employment report (to be released April 4) seems certain to show bigger job losses than any month ever outside of a few in 2008-9 and 2020.”

Rothstein, who served as a top economic advisor in the Obama administration, was quick to note that it’s not the layoffs themselves, but the workers’ lost productivity that presents a concern.

“Even greater damage will be done by the loss of federal government productivity,” he said. “The workers who are losing their jobs were worth more than they were being paid! We are all poorer when roads, planes and food are unsafe, when parks are closed.”

“Their absence is going to make the government run less, not more, efficiently”

While the exact number of how many layoffs are still to come is uncertain, with estimates up to 75% of the total federal workforce, their immediate impact could become more regional, some economists suggest.

“The direct macroeconomic effects of these layoffs will be localized and small in the aggregate,” says Neale Mahoney, an economics professor at Stanford University, noting that roughly 1.5 million are laid off in a typical month.

Like Rothstein, Mahoney is concerned about the long-term productivity effect on the broader economy and safety of U.S. aviation, health care and other industries that the laid-off federal works helped to keep on track.

“I'm concerned about the downstream consequences on the functioning of the government,” he told Salon. “The people who have been laid off — FAA aviation safety assistants, USDA specialists battling bird flu, IRS workers helping people navigate tax season — quietly help the government work for everyday people. Their absence is going to make the government run less, not more, efficiently.”

More

Imminent recession? DOGE’s mass layoffs spark fears of broader economic ripple effect

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID-19 vs. Vaccine Myocarditis: The Surprising Findings That Could Change Treatments

February 24, 2025

Scientists explored the differences in heart inflammation caused by COVID-19, anti-COVID-19 vaccines, and other viral infections.

Their findings reveal that immune responses vary significantly, with post-COVID-19 myocarditis showing a stronger, more aggressive immune reaction than other types. These insights could lead to more personalized treatments, improving care for patients affected by different forms of heart inflammation.

Heart Inflammation: A Deeper Look at Myocarditis

Heart inflammation, known as myocarditis, can vary depending on its cause. A research team led by Dr. Henrike Maatz at the Max Delbrück Center in Berlin examined the immune response in different types of myocarditis. Their study, published today (February 24) in Nature Cardiovascular Research, compared myocarditis caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection, mRNA vaccines, and non-COVID-19 viral infections. The findings revealed distinct immune signatures for each type.

“We found clear differences in immune activation,” says Maatz, co-lead author. “This knowledge might help to develop new and more personalized therapies that are tailored to specific types of inflammation.”

A Unique Opportunity During the Pandemic

Myocarditis can result from infections, autoimmune disorders, genetic factors, and, in rare cases, vaccination. While COVID-19 primarily affects the respiratory system, it is also known to cause heart damage. In some children and young adults, SARS-CoV-2 infection can trigger multisystem inflammatory syndrome, with myocarditis being a key complication, though this remains uncommon.

The COVID-19 pandemic provided researchers at the Max Delbrück Center, the Berlin Institute of Health at Charité (BIH), and Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin with a rare opportunity to study how myocarditis differs at the cellular and molecular levels based on its cause.

----Distinct Immune Activation and Cell Behavior

Researchers at the Max Delbrück Center performed single-nucleus RNA sequencing (snRNA-seq) on biopsied heart tissue to study gene expression and to create transcriptional profiles of each cell. These profiles served to identify the different cell types of the heart. They examined the molecular changes in each cell, and the abundance of the different cell types in three different sets of myocarditis tissue: COVID-19 positive samples, cases caused by mRNA vaccines, and non-COVID-19 heart inflammation caused by viral infections before the pandemic.

Unexpected Differences in Immune Response

They found that while some gene expression changes were similar across the three groups, there were significant differences in levels of immune cell gene expression. What’s more, transcriptional profiles also showed that immune cells differed in abundance, depending on the cause of the myocarditis.

“Such differences were unexpected,” says Dr. Eric Lindberg, co-lead author of the paper, former postdoc in the Hübner lab, who now heads a research group at the LMU hospital in Munich. The researchers for example found that post-vaccination, CD4 T-cells were more abundant whereas post SARS-CoV-2 infection, CD8 T cells tended to be more dominant. In the non-COVID-19 myocarditis samples, the CD4 to CD8 cell ratio was about 50/50, he adds. Gene expression data suggested that the CD8 T cells in the post-COVID-19 group also appeared to be more aggressive than in non-COVID myocarditis. The researchers also found a small population of T cells present in post-COVID-19 myocarditis that have previously only been observed in the blood of severely sick COVID-19 patients.

“Together, these findings suggest a stronger immune response in post-COVID-19 myocarditis compared to pre-pandemic forms of myocarditis, while the myocardial inflammation appeared to be milder in post-vaccination,” says Professor Norbert Hübner of the Max Delbrück Center and Charite – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corresponding author on the paper and a principal investigator at the DZHK. Although the sample size from patients with post-vaccination myocarditis was small, the results are in line with other studies of post-vaccination myocarditis, Hübner adds.

Implications for Treatment and Future Therapies

Being able to differentiate between inflammation caused by different kinds of infections and vaccination paves the way to improve treatment tailored to specific types of inflammation, says Maatz. Based on the research, one could develop new therapies to control the side effects of vaccines, for example, she adds.

More

COVID-19 vs. Vaccine Myocarditis: The Surprising Findings That Could Change Treatments

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New Graphene Energy Saving Solution Sends Shares Of This Micro Cap Higher

24 February 2025

The constant improvement in fuel efficiency continues to be the holy grail for car companies as higher fuel efficiency means a vehicle can travel farther using less fuel, reducing costs and environmental impact.

Today, shares of Graphene Manufacturing Group Ltd. (TSX-Venture: GMG) (OTCQX: GMGMF) are moving higher on the news of the company’s multi-year performance testing of G® Lubricant, a graphene liquid concentrate additive designed to enhance the performance of diesel and gasoline (petrol) engines. According to the Company, the product has the potential to reshape the future of the global liquid fuels industry.

G® Lubricant is a graphene liquid concentrate that can be added to any mineral or synthetic oil used in an internal combustion engine and has been shown to increase fuel efficiency by up to 8.4% in a diesel engine.

Over the past four years, the Company has conducted environmentally controlled testing of G® Lubricant in internal combustion engines monitored and verified by The University of Queensland. 

GMG's Chairman and Director, Jack Perkowski, commented: "G® Lubricant's performance, which demonstrates an 8.4% improvement in fuel efficiency using only a very small amount of graphene in an easy to use graphene concentrate, is a 'Category Creator' that has the potential to redefine the multi trillion dollar liquid fuels market. The fact that only 1% of G® Lubricant is needed to achieve such savings provides a very attractive value proposition for fleet owners."

More

New Graphene Energy Saving Solution Sends Shares Of This Micro Cap Higher

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The ambition of the present Labour government is that every worker in the country will have a greater than average income.

Dodgy Socialist, UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson.


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