Baltic
Dry Index. 1112 +73
Brent Crude 72.76
Spot Gold 2895 US 2 Year Yield 4.05 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 36.531 trillion!
So what do we do? Anything. Something. So long as we just don't sit there. If we screw it up, start over. Try something else. If we wait until we've satisfied all the uncertainties, it may be too late.
Lee Iacocca.
In the stock casinos, the pause before the Great
Storm?
Asia markets trade mixed as key Wall Street benchmarks rise amid
fresh Trump tariff threats
Updated Thu, Feb 27 2025 12:21 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Thursday, after key
Wall Street indexes rose amid fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald
Trump.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.35%
higher.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded around the
flatline while the Topix added 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.82%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq dipped 0.1%.
Shares of Japanese convenience store operator Seven & i Holdings fell
over 10% after the proposed acquisition by its founding family failed to secure financing, according
to a company filing. This comes after the Yomiuri
newspaper reported that Seven & i has abandoned the management
buyout plan, which was pegged at over 8 trillion yen ($53.69 billion).
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.18%
while mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.2%.
Trump on Wednesday threatened to impose 25% tariffs on
imports from the European Union. This comes on the back of the president’s
declaration to go
forward with tariffs on Mexico and Canada after a monthlong postponement.
Investors will be keeping an eye on Asian chip stocks
after technology darling Nvidia’s
fourth-quarter earnings beat Wall Street expectations. The chipmaker also
provided strong guidance for the current quarter and indicated its confidence
in continuing its historic run of growth fueled by artificial intelligence.
“While markets have begun to react to these
developments, deep tariff risks are still being underpriced,” Goldman Sachs
wrote in a note released Wednesday.
Kamakshya Trivedi, the investment bank’s head of
global FX, rates and EM strategy, said that the scope for U.S. equities to fall
further and a stronger move in the dollar still exists if Trump “walks the
walk” on broader and bigger tariffs.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 eked out gains,
snapping a four-day run of losses to close at 5,956.06 The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
188.04 points, or 0.43%, to end at 43,433.12. The 30-stock average was earlier
up as much as 245.34 points, or about 0.6%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.26%
and ended at 19,075.26.
Asia
markets live: Nvidia, Asia chip stocks, Trump tariffs
S&P 500 futures tick higher after index snaps four-day losing
streak: Live updates
Updated Thu, Feb 27 2025 12:48 AM EST
S&P 500 futures ticked higher early Thursday as
investors digested Nvidia’s
latest results.
Futures
tied to the broad market index inched higher. Nasdaq 100 futures added
0.28%. Dow Jones Industrial
Average futures added 65 points, or 0.15%.
Nvidia shares were slightly lower even after the
chip giant exceeded fourth-quarter estimates on the top and bottom
lines. The company issued strong guidance, reflecting continued demand driven
by the artificial intelligence race. Salesforce slid 5% on
disappointing fourth-quarter
revenue and light guidance.
On Wednesday, stocks came off the session’s highs as
investors grew concerned about President Donald Trump’s trade policies. At his
first cabinet meeting, he said that duties against Canada and Mexico would take
effect and that his trade war will include a 25% tariff on goods from the
European Union.
The S&P
500 eked out just a 0.01% gain on Wednesday, ending its four-day
streak of losses. The 30-stock Dow dropped
188 points, or about 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added
nearly 0.3%.
“Caution is warranted. The remarkable strength of
equities in recent months suggests that any downside should be approached with
care,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex. “For the bulls, a
corrective move lower wouldn’t be unwelcome, as it could present more
attractive entry opportunities in the future. But today, everything else may
well play second fiddle to Nvidia’s earnings result.”
Indeed, a flurry of recent economic reports —
including a softer-than-expected consumer confidence reading, disappointing
retail sales numbers and a weak consumer sentiment reading — have rattled
stocks and raised worries about the health of the U.S. economy.
Traders will have an eye on Thursday’s weekly jobless
claims, but they’re looking ahead to Friday’s personal consumption expenditures
price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
On the quarterly earnings front, Warner Bros. Discovery and Dell Technologies are slated
to report Thursday.
Stock
market today: Live updates
In other news.
Trump sows confusion on tariffs for Canada and Mexico, floats 25%
duty on EU goods
27 February 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on
Wednesday raised hopes for another month-long pause on steep new tariffs on
imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could take effect on April 2, and
floated a 25% "reciprocal" tariff on European cars and other goods.
A White House official, however, said Trump's
previous March 4 deadline for the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods
remained in effect "as of this moment," pending his review of Mexican
and Canadian actions to secure their borders and halt the flow of migrants and
the opioid fentanyl into the U.S.
Trump sowed confusion during his first cabinet
meeting on Wednesday, when he was asked about the timing for the start of the
duties for Canada and Mexico and replied that it would be April 2.
"I have to tell you that, you know, on April 2,
I was going to do it on April 1," Trump said. "But I'm a little bit
superstitious, I made it April 2, the tariffs go on. Not all of them but a lot
of them."
Trump's comments prompted jumps in the value of the
Canadian dollar and Mexican peso versus the greenback.
Canadian Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe
Champagne told reporters that Canada would wait for signed executive orders
from Trump before reacting.
"Our mission is still to avoid the tariffs,
extend the suspension if we need to," Champagne said. "We are
prepared - there will be a targeted, strategic but a firm response" if
Trump imposes tariffs.
Mexico's Economy Ministry declined to comment on
Trump's remarks, but said Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard will meet on Thursday
with newly confirmed U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce
Secretary Howard Lutnick on Friday.
Lutnick told the cabinet meeting that the
fentanyl-related actions were paused for 30 days but referred to
"overall" tariffs on April 2. He did not specify whether the March 4
deadline remained in effect.
"So the big transaction is April 2, but the
fentanyl-related things, we're working hard on the border," Lutnick said.
"At the end of that 30 days, they have to prove to the president that
they've satisfied him in that regard. If they have, he'll give them a pause, or
he won't."
EU TARIFF RATE
Trump has targeted early April for imposing
reciprocal tariffs matching import duty rates of other countries and offseting
their other restrictions. His trade advisers consider European countries' value
added taxes to be akin to a tariff.
Trump, asked whether he has decided on a tariff rate
for goods from the European Union, replied: "We have made a decision, and
we'll be announcing it very soon, and it'll be 25%, generally speaking, and
that'll be on cars, and all of the things."
He said the EU is a "different case" from
Canada and takes advantage of the U.S. in different ways.
More
Trump
sows confusion on tariffs for Canada and Mexico, floats 25% duty on EU goods
Nvidia warns of growing competition from China’s Huawei, despite
U.S. sanctions
Published Thu, Feb 27 2025 12:18 AM EST
BEIJING — Chip giant Nvidia has flagged heightened
competition from Huawei, despite U.S. restrictions on the Chinese
telecommunications company.
In an annual filing Wednesday, Nvidia listed Huawei
among its current competitors, including it in the list for a second straight year. The company, blacklisted by the
U.S. for national security reasons, did not feature among Nvidia’s competitors
for at least three prior years.
Nvidia listed Huawei among its competitors in four of
five categories, including chips, cloud services, computing processing and
networking products.
“There’s a fair amount of competition in China,”
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC’s Jon Fortt Wednesday.
“Huawei, other companies, are ... quite vigorous and
very, very competitive,” Huang said.
Since 2019, the U.S. has restricted Huawei’s ability
to access technology from American suppliers, from advanced 5G chips to Google’s
Android operating system.
Huawei’s revenue exceeded 860 billion yuan ($118.27
billion) in 2024, state media reported, a
22% jump in revenue from 2023, and the fastest growth since a 32% increase
in 2016, according to CNBC calculations of publicly released figures. Huawei
typically publishes
its annual reports in March.
The company’s revenue barely grew in 2020, and
plunged by nearly 29% in 2021. Its consumer segment was hit hard, and even as
revenue rose 17% year on year to 251.5 billion yuan in 2023, it was just over
half of what the unit generated at its peak in 2020.
The telecommunications company started to make a
comeback in the smartphone market in
2023 with the release of its Mate 60 Pro in China. Reviews indicated
the device offers download speeds associated with 5G — thanks to an advanced
semiconductor chip.
Just over a year later, Huawei
launched the Mate 70 smartphone series that uses the company’s first
fully self-developed operating system, HarmonyOS NEXT.
Nvidia warns of competition from China's Huawei, despite U.S. sanctions
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The
Federal Reserve’s favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign again
Published
Wed, Feb 26 2025 12:44 PM EST Updated Wed, Feb 26 2025 1:57 PM EST
An
ominous measure that the Federal Reserve considers a near surefire recession
signal again has reared its head in the bond market.
The
10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in trading
Wednesday. In market lingo, that’s known as an “inverted yield curve,” and it’s
had a sterling prediction record over a 12- to 18-month timeframe for downturns
going back decades.
In
fact, the New York Fed considers it such a reliable indicator that it offers monthly updates on the relationship along with
percentage odds on a recession occurring over the next 12 months.
At
the end of January, when the 10-year yield was about 0.31 percentage point
clear of the 3-month, the probability was just 23%. However, that is almost
certain to change as the relationship has shifted dramatically in February. The
reason the move is considered a recession indicator is the expectation that the
Fed will cut short-term rates in response to an economic retreat in the future.
“This
is what one would expect if investors are adopting a much more risk-averse
attitude set of behavior due to a growth scare, which one periodically sees
late in business cycles,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “It’s
not clear yet whether it’s more noise or it’s a signal that we’re going to see
a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity.”
Though
markets more closely follow the relationship between the 10- and 2-year notes,
the Fed prefers measuring against the 3-month as it is more sensitive to
movements in the central bank’s federal funds rate. The 10-year/2-year spread
has held modestly positive, though it also has flattened considerably in recent
weeks.
More
Federal
Reserve's favorite recession indicator is flashing danger again
World
economic growth hinges on impact of US tariffs, Bank policymaker says
26
February 2025
Future
growth in the world economy hinges on how US tariffs affect global trade,
although the impact on UK inflation could be less than feared, a Bank of
England interest rate-setter has said.
Economist
Swati Dhingra, who is a member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, said
the UK was sensitive to changing import prices.
Speaking
at the 2025 Dow Lecture for the National Institute of Economic and Social
Research (NIESR), she said: “After a sharp recovery from the pandemic, the
world economy has stagnated and its future growth will depend on how global
trade is affected by the significant shift in US trade policy.”
The
“direct price-increasing effects from US tariffs to UK prices” could be “less
than feared” as the main imports, including refined oil, are unlikely to
experience cost increases on account of tariffs, Ms Dhingra said.
The
impact could instead be felt in how the countries that are subject to higher
tariffs choose to pass on additional costs to the UK market, she said.
“The
broader indirect effects through global markets and trade diversion are more
likely to dominate and to reduce prices in the UK,” according to the economist.
“Tariffs
are likely to create one-off adjustments in prices, rather than inflationary
persistence.
“On
the overall impact on inflation in the UK, the direct effect of US import costs
and dollar strengthening are likely to be offset by reduced global price
pressures.”
US
President Donald Trump has raised the threat of increasing tariffs on goods
entering the nation, including plans to hike tax on steel imports.
Tariffs
could increase domestic production in the US over the long term, but lead to
higher import prices and impact other countries that rely on it for imports and
exports.
World
economic growth hinges on impact of US tariffs, Bank policymaker says
Economists
are starting to worry about a serious Trump recession
Tariffs
on America’s neighbours and assault on federal government will hit US economy
25
February 2025 4:00pm GMT
Donald
Trump’s assault on the US federal government and the world’s interlinked
manufacturing system have together reached an economic tipping point.
“It
seems almost unavoidable that we
are headed for a deep, deep recession,” said Jesse Rothstein, Berkeley
professor and former chief economist at the US labour department.
Once
the pace of job losses crosses a critical line, the multiplier effects can
snowball suddenly.
Prof
Rothstein said monthly non-farm payrolls – the barometer of US economic health
watched closely by markets – could turn viciously negative by late spring,
contracting at rates surpassed only during the worst months of Covid and the
Lehman crisis in 2008.
“I
think we’re going to see historically large drops. Losses of 400,000 a month
are not implausible because people are getting nervous out there.
“It
is not just the federal employees being fired: it’s all the other people
worried they could be next, so they are cutting back too,” he told The
Telegraph.
Torsten
Slok, of Apollo Global, said layoffs could approach 1m after factoring in the
likely chain reaction through contractors. “We are starting to worry about the
downside risks to the economy and markets,” he said.
Mr
Slok said it is a mystery as to why credit spreads and equities are still so
well-behaved when the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was now higher than
at any time during the great recession.
Prof
Rothstein said the damage would not show up immediately due to lag effects. The
ugly months will be in April and May, but by then secondary shocks will have
spread far and wide.
“There
are all kinds of spillovers. Contracts for external contractors are being cut.
Nobody knows how much imports are going to cost next month, or if we are even
going to have accurate weather forecasts any more.
“How
could you hire in these conditions? This is going to be very, very bad,” he
said.
Markets
are implicitly betting that Trump’s trade wars are just bluster, but he
restated on Monday night that his 25pc tariffs against Mexico and Canada would
go ahead next week, which would instantly snarl up the North American auto
industry.
More
Economists
are starting to worry about a serious Trump recession
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Strong link between public’s behaviour to mitigate Covid-19 and daily
case figures, report shows
25 February 2025
THERE WAS A “strong” link
during the pandemic between efforts the Irish public undertook to mitigate the
risk of Covid-19 infection and the number of new daily cases that were
reported.
That’s according to a new report from the ESRI on the lessons that can be learned from the
Covid pandemic on “promoting a nationwide collective response” from future
pandemics or emergencies.
The report analysed data
from the Social Activity Measure (SAM), which was collected fortnightly over an
18-month period from January 2021 to June 2022.
SAM adapted the Day
Reconstruction Method, which asks people to record their behaviour from the
previous day in detail, as well as their perceptions of the pandemic and
attitudes towards it.
The study was done online
and anonymously, to a nationally representative sample of 1,000 people every
two weeks.
It found that behaviours
to mitigate the risk of Covid infection were “strongly associated with the
contemporaneous number of new daily cases of COVID-19”.
The report stated that
the link to daily case numbers was stronger than with other indicators, such as
hospitalisations and deaths, even after the vaccine became available.
The ESRI said that this
“close relationship between behaviour and the COVID-19 case numbers confirms
that putting accurate, numeric indications of risk into the public domain can
strongly influence the public response”.
“In future emergencies,
where possible, the publication of a number linked to the scale of a threat is
likely to be similarly impactful,” said the ESRI.
Meanwhile, the ESRI noted
that cooperation with mitigation measures during the pandemic was largely
voluntary, “with only a limited role for legal deterrents”.
However, it added that
“voluntary collective action on this scale needs to be coordinated by the
policy and communication that surrounds it”.
The ESRI further stated
that in emergencies, rules need to be “simple and straightforward” and that
they should be “consistently applied and communicated”.
“Straightforward,
explicit rules are also easier to self-police and to observe in others, making
cooperation more likely”, said the ESRI.
While the ESRI said there
was fatigue with sticking to the public health guidelines as the pandemic wore
on, it noted that more important was whether the restrictions were viewed as
“coherent rather than contradictory”.
It added that
“perceptions of how much others were complying with restrictions mattered too”.
The degree to which
others were perceived to be complying with the rules influenced behaviour
to a greater extent than the “likelihood of being caught and fined were they to
break restrictions”.
“Voluntary willingness to
do the right thing mattered more than deterrence,” said the ESRI.
Strong link between public’s behaviour to mitigate Covid-19 and daily
case figures, report shows
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Durable
and Transparent: Researchers Develop High-Efficiency Bifacial Perovskite Solar
Cells
By International
Society for Optics and Photonics February 25, 2025
Bifacial perovskite solar cells with a transparent
electrode offer high efficiency, durability, and infrared transparency, paving
the way for major advancements in solar energy applications.
Bifacial perovskite solar
cells, which capture sunlight from both sides, have shown great potential for
enhancing solar energy efficiency. Researchers at the Indian Institute of
Technology (IIT) have recently advanced their development by introducing a novel
NiO/Ag/NiO (NAN) transparent electrode. This innovation improves efficiency,
durability, and infrared transparency, offering promising applications in solar
energy technology.
As detailed in the Journal of Photonics for
Energy, a research team from IIT Dharwad designed and fabricated bifacial
solar cells with high infrared transparency. They achieved this by integrating
a hybrid top transparent electrode (TE) composed of a three-layer NiO/Ag/NiO
structure. Using a low-energy physical vapor deposition technique, they
developed an electrode with exceptionally low electrical resistance and high
visible light transmittance, significantly enhancing the performance of these
solar cells.
High Efficiency and Bifacial Performance
When integrated into the
solar cell configuration, the NAN-TE demonstrated impressive power conversion
efficiencies (PCE) of 9.05 and 6.54 percent when illuminated from different
sides. A high bifaciality factor of 72 percent indicates the cell’s ability to
effectively capture light from both directions.
Moreover, these bifacial
solar cells exhibited remarkable durability, maintaining 80 percent of their
initial efficiency for over 1000 hours without any protective encapsulation.
They also allowed significant light transmission in the near-infrared region,
making them suitable for thermal windows and optoelectronic applications.
The thin profile of the
NAN-TE—less than 40 nm—further enhances its potential for integration into
building materials and tandem solar cell applications. Senior author Dhriti
Sundar Ghosh, associate professor of physics at IIT Dharwad, remarks, “This work
may provide a design strategy for TEs that can be included in bifacial
perovskite solar cells for use in tandem devices, agrivoltaics, and automotive
technologies, among other potential uses.” This breakthrough highlights the
immense potential of bifacial perovskite solar cells in advancing solar energy
technology.
Reference: “Hybrid top
transparent electrode for infrared-transparent bifacial perovskite solar cells”
by Sonia Rani, Arun Kumar, Abhishek K. Chauhan and Dhriti Sundar Ghosh, 18
February 2025, Journal of Photonics for Energy.
DOI: 10.1117/1.JPE.15.015501
Durable and Transparent: Researchers Develop High-Efficiency Bifacial
Perovskite Solar Cells
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
I think
it's much more interesting to live not knowing, than to have answers which
might be wrong.
Richard P. Feynman.
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