Baltic Dry Index. 776 -25 Brent Crude 74.44
Spot Gold 2916 US 2 Year Yield 4.36 +0.07
US Federal Debt. 36.473 trillion!
Treat all economic questions from the viewpoint of the consumer, for the interests of the consumer are the interests of the human race.
Frederic Bastiat.
In the stock casinos, an end of Ukraine war boom?
But another Gaza war is set to start at noon on Saturday.
Look away from that rapidly rising long end US Treasury yield curve now.
There is growing talk that the
administration is going to revalue gold reserves to
help pay off some of the debt along with a plan to encourage non-residents to
swap their existing holdings of U.S. Treasury securities for a century bond
with a zero per cent coupon. Good luck.
David Rosenberg.
European markets set to open sharply higher as
hopes rise that war in Ukraine will end soon
Updated Thu, Feb 13 2025 12:19 AM EST
European stocks are heading for a higher
open Thursday, with sentiment boost after President Donald Trump ordered U.S.
officials to begin peace talks with Russia and Ukraine.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 9 points higher at 8,817, Germany’s DAX up 229 points at
22,370, France’s CAC up
80 points at 8,127 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 308 points higher
at 37,961, according to data from IG.
The higher open for markets comes as an
end to the Ukraine-Russia war becomes a more distinct prospect.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on
Wednesday that he had spoken to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and that both leaders wanted peace. He
said he had ordered U.S. officials to begin talks immediately on ending the
war.
Regional investors are also looking ahead
to a raft of earnings and key data releases from Germany and the U.K. on
Thursday.
In Europe on Thursday, traders will be
keeping an eye on earnings from Siemens, Nestle, Swisscom, Pernod Ricard, Orange, Unilever, Legrand, Ferrovial, Barclays, British American Tobacco, Commerzbank, Thyssenkrupp and Moncler.
Data releases will include Germany’s
latest inflation rate and U.K. fourth-quarter gross domestic product, with
economists expecting the British economy to have contracted 0.1% in the three
months to December.
Global markets shed gains on Wednesday
after a hotter-than-expected inflation print out of the U.S.
The consumer price index gained 0.5% for
the month, taking the annual inflation rate to 3%, above the Dow Jones estimate
of 2.9%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was also higher than
forecast.
The inflation print has fueled
expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for an
extended time, and could push the next rate cut to September.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, UK GDP data, earnings
Asia markets rise after Wall Street declines on
inflation fears; Aussie stocks hit record high
Updated Thu, Feb 13 2025 12:09 AM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher
Thursday, breaking ranks with Wall Street that fell overnight as a
stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reading diminished prospects of policy
easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 hit a record
intraday high of 8,575.2, surpassing its previous peak of 8,566.9 scaled on
Jan. 31. The index, however, pared gains to trade flat.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.48% while
the Topix climbed 1.34%. South Korea’s Kospi traded 0.96% higher, while the
small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.5%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed
1.52%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.13%.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose
0.47%, while the BSE Sensex index was 0.53% higher.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 tumbled and bond
yields spiked after consumer prices rose more than expected in January.
The broad market index slipped 0.27% to
end at 6,051.97, and the Dow
Jones Industrial Average tumbled 225.09 points, or 0.5%, to 44,368.56.
The Nasdaq Composite eked
out a 0.03% gain to close at 19,649.95.
The latest inflation data suggests that
the Fed may be less likely to resume its rate-cutting campaign soon, as well as
raises concerns that the next move could even be a hike.
During his testimony before the House
Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell noted that the latest CPI data serves as a reminder of the Fed’s
progress in moving inflation closer to its 2% target, but acknowledged that it
is “not quite there yet.”
Indian
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is traveling to the U.S. for talks with
President Donald Trump and his administration and is expected to mitigate the
threat of reciprocal tariffs as well as artificial intelligence policies.
Asia
markets live updates: stocks open higher amid U.S. inflation fears
Chinese businesses rush to try DeepSeek AI at
‘unprecedented’ scale
Published Wed, Feb 12 2025 11:13 PM EST
BEIJING — Chinese businesses are tapping
DeepSeek’s newest artificial intelligence model to see how it can improve
productivity.
The Chinese AI model took the world by
storm in recent weeks after showcasing its reasoning process and claims to
undercut rival OpenAI’s ChatGPT on cost — despite U.S. restrictions on Chinese
access to the advanced semiconductors needed to develop the tech.
Eight automakers including BYD, at least nine financial
securities companies, three state-owned telecommunications operators and
smartphone brand Honor are among the many that have rushed in the last
week to integrate with DeepSeek. Cloud computing operators Alibaba, Huawei,
Tencent and Baidu have all offered ways for clients to access DeepSeek’s latest
model.
“This is quite unprecedented,” Wei Sun,
principal analyst of artificial intelligence at Counterpoint Research, said in
an email Monday. She pointed to the rate of adoption, scale of business
integration and breadth of specific industries covered.
“When we have all of these, we know it’s
making a big social and economic impact,” she said.
Optimism over artificial intelligence has
spread to Chinese stocks. UBS said Wednesday that AI-related Chinese stocks are
up by 15% since the start of the year, outperforming the broader MSCI China
Index by 9%.
A big factor in the widespread interest is
timing. DeepSeek released its latest R1 model on Jan. 20, and news of its
low-cost reasoning capabilities prompted a global
tech stock sell-off on Jan. 27 — just as millions of urban workers in China were returning to their
hometowns to celebrate the eight-day Lunar New Year holiday.
As a result, less developed parts of China
gained greater understanding of AI and its impact, a topic previously limited
to conversations in China’s largest cities, said Wenhao Zhang, CEO of the
Beijing-based consumer marketing consultancy Doodod.
“It’s a major education of the market.
This will push the entire ecosystem’s development,” he said Tuesday in
Mandarin, translated by CNBC.
More
Chinese
businesses rush to try DeepSeek AI at 'unprecedented' scale
In other news, as the President Trump’s USA exits, President Xi’s China tries to step in. Canada hits back at President Trump.
China invites countries to fund programs instead
of USAID
11 February 2025
China is offering its assistance to
countries affected by the Trump administration’s decision to halt the US Agency
for International Development (USAID), stepping in to fund programs that lost
American support, Politico reports.
According to the report, Chinese officials
have already informed Nepal’s government — a strategically significant country
for Beijing, located on the southern slopes of the Himalayas between India and
China — that China is ready to replace USAID programs with its own development
projects.
Meanwhile, a delegation from the Cook
Islands, a Pacific archipelago, led by Prime Minister Mark Brown, will visit
China this week to sign an agreement on deepening trade and economic
cooperation, including increased Chinese investment in the nation’s infrastructure.
In Colombia, non-governmental
organizations report that China is showing interest in stepping in to replace
USAID programs that were frozen. Last year, Colombia received approximately
$385 million from USAID.
China’s strategic push
These moves indicate China’s intent to
capitalize on the situation and quickly expand its influence in regions crucial
to its global ambitions, potentially displacing the United States from key
strategic areas.
In response, Democratic lawmakers in the
US House of Representatives have developed a strategy to warn the Trump
administration about the risk of China strengthening its global position due to
the suspension of US foreign aid. However, House Republicans have not taken
steps to defend USAID or push for the restoration of assistance.
USAID suspension
On January 21, US President Donald Trump
announced a 90-day suspension of all foreign aid programs to review their
alignment with his administration’s foreign policy goals.
A few days later, an order was issued for
the termination of existing foreign aid programs and a freeze on new funding.
USAID operations in Ukraine were also put on hold, suspending ongoing projects
and financial support.
China invites
countries to fund programs instead of USAID
David Rosenberg: The United States is blaming
others for the financial mess it created
And five reasons Donald Trump really wants
to take over Canada
David
Rosenberg Published Feb 11, 2025
United
States President Donald Trump thinks the rest of the world is ripping
off the U.S., when the reason for its trade
deficits reflects the fact that Americans are spending more of their
after-tax incomes than virtually every other country on the planet.
The personal savings rate scale is at the
very low end of the global range. You cannot, at the same time, have a society
where economic success depends on mass consumerism that will ever not coexist
with a trade deficit. What part of this do Trump and his team not comprehend?
As part of this consumerism, the U.S. is
the only major country with neither a national sales tax nor a value-added tax.
It is, therefore, completely natural for a country that pursues
consumer-oriented spending to be the one with trade deficits.
The balance of payments must always
balance, so if Trump crushes the current account deficit, he ipso facto crushes
the capital account surplus. That, in turn, means financial conditions will
have to tighten.
Every action has an equal and opposite
reaction. The Trump administration could well force a voluntary debt
restructuring, but that doesn’t address the underlying issue, which is that
even excluding interest costs, the deficit would top US$1 trillion.
And the deficit isn’t because the U.S. is
too generous to the rest of the world. That is small potatoes, but it plays
well in Peoria. The ticking time bomb is aging demographics and the
implications on entitlement spending, which Trump on the campaign trail said he
would never touch. Everything else on the budget file is tied for a distant
second.
There is growing talk that the
administration is going to revalue gold reserves to
help pay off some of the debt along with a plan to encourage non-residents to
swap their existing holdings of U.S. Treasury securities for a century bond
with a zero per cent coupon. Good luck.
But the problem is that none of these
gimmicks change behaviour, and I am talking about a culture of overspending
relative to domestic national income that is the root cause of the ongoing
deficits.
Trump is also eying Canada’s vast
resources. To be sure, he is not going to invade Canada (nor could he on his
own), but he does intend to apply economic pressure in a bid to bring the
country under the U.S. umbrella (amazingly, polls show that anywhere from seven
per cent to 20 per cent of Canadians would not mind one bit being part of the
U.S. — clearly desiring a strong currency, lower tax rates and any reason to
feel patriotic).
This is not the first time that the U.S.
has tried this: think of why Sir John A. Macdonald built the east-west national
railway to begin with, the War of 1812 and the Annexation Bill of 1866, which
was introduced in July of that year in the House but never passed.
The overriding question is why would Trump
want Canada? He doesn’t seem to like the people. He doesn’t seem to like the
politicians. He doesn’t seem to like the institutions. So, what does he want?
The vast resources. Here is what Canada has that he desperately wants access
to:
- 318
billion trees (30 per cent of the world’s timber);
- 164
billion barrels of proven oil reserves (nearly 10 per cent of the world’s
supply, ranking fourth on the planet);
- 34 critical
minerals (sixth most in the world — everything from cobalt to
graphite to chromium to nickel to potash to lithium to manganese to
uranium — Canada is a global mining powerhouse, ranking in the top five of
world production);
- Seven
per cent of the world’s renewable fresh water;
- Access
to the Arctic since 40 per cent of Canada’s land mass is in the Arctic.
In sum, Canada has net national wealth
estimated at $19 trillion and a very strong balance sheet that America would
surely covet — not too shabby for a population of a bit more than 40 million.
Canada, in other words, is Greenland on
steroids.
U.S. blames others for financial mess it created: David Rosenberg | Financial Post
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Quote: "If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, we can maintain policy restraint for longer," Powell told the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. "If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly. We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate, and policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face."
Hopes
for more Fed rate cuts dim as Powell notes hot CPI means ‘we’re not quite there
yet’
Published
Wed, Feb 12 2025 12:38 PM EST Updated Wed, Feb 12 2025 2:52 PM EST
A
Federal Reserve interest rate cut won’t be coming until at least September, if
at all this year, following a troubling inflation report Wednesday, according
to updated market pricing.
Futures
markets shifted from the expectation of a June cut and possibly another before
the end of the year to no moves until the fall, with a minimal chance of a
follow-up before the end of 2025.
“The
Fed will see January’s hot inflation print as confirmation that price pressures
continue to bubble beneath the economy’s surface,” Bill Adams, chief economist
at Comerica, wrote in commentary that echoed others around Wall Street. “That
will reinforce the Fed’s inclination to at least slow and possibly even end
rate cuts in 2025.”
Reduced
optimism for Fed easing came after the January consumer price
index report showed
a 0.5% monthly gain, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3%, a touch higher
than December and only slightly lower than the 3.1% reading in January 2024.
Excluding food and energy, the news was even worse, with a 3.3% rate that
showed core inflation, which the Fed tends to rely on more, also rising and
holding well above the central bank’s goal.
Fed
Chair Jerome Powell, in an appearance
Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee, insisted the central
bank had made “great progress” on inflation from its cycle peak “but we’re not
quite there yet. So we want to keep policy restrictive for now.”
As
the Fed targets 2% inflation and the report showed no recent progress, it also
dimmed hopes that the central bank will view further policy easing as
appropriate after it lopped a full percentage point off its benchmark
short-term borrowing rate in 2024.
Fed
funds futures trading pointed to just a 2.5% chance of a March cut; only 13.2%
in May, up to 22.8% in June, then 41.2% in July and finally up to 55.9% in
September, according to the CME
Group’s FedWatch gauge
as of late Wednesday morning. However, that would leave the probability still
up in the air until October, when futures contracts pricing implies a 62.1%
probability.
Odds
of a second cut by the end of 2025 were at just 31.3%, with pricing not
indicating another reduction until late 2026. The fed funds rate is currently
targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.
The
issues raised in the CPI report are not happening in isolation. Policymakers
also are watching White House trade policy, with President Donald Trump pushing aggressive
tariffs that
also could boost prices and complicate the Fed’s desire to get to its goal.
“There
is no getting away from the fact that this is a hot report and with the sense
that potential tariffs run upside risk for inflation the market is
understandably of the view the Federal Reserve is going to find it challenging
to justify rate cuts in the near future,” said James Knightley, chief
international economist at ING.
While
the Fed pays attention to the CPI and other similar price measures, its
preferred inflation gauge is the personal consumption expenditures price index,
which the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release later in February. Elements
from the CPI filter into the PCE reading, and Citigroup said it expects to see
core PCE fall to 2.6% for January, a 0.2 percentage point decline from
December.
Hopes for more Fed
rate cuts dim as Powell notes hot CPI means 'we're not quite there yet'
US
Inflation Is Rising Again as Food and Gas Costs Climb
February
12, 2025 at 11:15 PM GMT
Food
and gasoline prices are rising again as US inflation
picked up broadly at the start of the year, with economists warning President
Donald Trump’s tariffs against China, on steel imports and
potentially against huge trading partners Canada and Mexico will only accelerate the
trend.
The
monthly consumer price index rose in January by the most since August
2023, led by a range of household expenses like groceries and gas as well as
housing costs. Excluding often-volatile food and energy costs, the
so-called core CPI climbed 0.4%, more than forecast, fueled by car
insurance, airfares and a record monthly increase in the cost of prescription
drugs.
The
chances of interest rate cuts are even more
remote now given
that on Tuesday—before the fresh numbers came out—Fed Chair Jerome Powell
expressed an unwillingness to change rates in the near term. On Wednesday,
he added to that sentiment by saying the latest consumer price data
show there’s more work to do.
“I
would say we’re close, but not there on inflation,” Powell told the House
Financial Services Committee. While acknowledging the reading came in
above almost all forecasts, he cautioned against over-reaction. “We don’t get
excited about one or two good readings, and we don’t get
excited about one or two bad readings.” —David E. Rovella
US Inflation Is
Rising Again as Food and Gas Costs Climb: Evening Briefing - Bloomberg
Joann
Fabrics Plans on Closing Hundreds of Stores Across More Than 40 States
The
retailer seeks approval to shutter hundreds of underperforming stores across
more than 40 states as part of bankruptcy restructuring.
2/12/2025
Updated:2/12/2025
Joann
Inc., the parent company of Joann Fabrics, which filed for Chapter 11
bankruptcy in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware last
month, is seeking approval to close hundreds of
underperforming stores nationwide.
The
retailer, a staple in the sewing and crafting industry for more than 80 years,
cited financial difficulties and an ongoing strategic sale process as key
reasons for the closures.
According
to the court filings, Joann Inc. is undertaking a restructuring process while
continuing to seek potential buyers for its assets.
As
part of this effort, the company has identified hundreds of stores across more
than 40 states that will close—with California, Florida, Illinois, and Michigan
being hit the hardest.
The
documents indicate that these locations have been deemed underperforming and
unlikely to be included in any potential acquisition deals.
The
bankruptcy filing outlines the company’s plan to liquidate assets at the
closing stores through a partnership with Gordon Brothers Retail Partners LLC,
which has been designated as the “stalking horse bidder” for the liquidation
sales. These sales, pending court approval, will proceed in phases, beginning
shortly after a scheduled hearing on Feb. 14.
In
addition to store closures, the court filings reveal that Joann Inc. intends to
modify its customer policies, including discontinuing gift card redemptions and
refunds within 14 days after the court’s approval.
This
adjustment aligns with the company’s broader cost-cutting efforts to stabilize
its financial position and maximize value for stakeholders, according to the
court documents.
Joann’s
bankruptcy filing is part of a larger trend of retail struggles, particularly
for brick-and-mortar chains facing mounting competition from online retailers.
Joann’s
legal team has requested the ability to conduct additional closures beyond the
initial list, depending on the progression of its financial restructuring and
potential sale negotiations.
Founded
in Cleveland, Ohio, Joann Fabrics has been a go-to destination for sewing
enthusiasts, quilters, and crafters across the country. The company currently
operates more than 800 stores across 49 states.
More
Joann Fabrics Plans on Closing Hundreds of Stores Across More Than 40 States | The Epoch Times
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
FDA
Lab Uncovers Excess DNA Contamination in Covid-19 Vaccines
February
6, 2025
n
explosive new study conducted within the US Food and Drug Administration’s
(FDA) own laboratory has revealed excessively high levels of DNA contamination
in Pfizer’s mRNA Covid-19 vaccine.
Tests
conducted at the FDA’s White Oak Campus in Maryland found that residual DNA
levels exceeded regulatory safety limits by 6 to 470 times.
The
study was undertaken by student researchers under the supervision of FDA
scientists. The vaccine vials were sourced from BEI Resources, a trusted
supplier affiliated with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases (NIAID), previously headed by Anthony Fauci.
Recently published in the Journal
of High School Science, the peer-reviewed study challenges years of
dismissals by regulatory authorities, who had previously labelled concerns
about excessive DNA contamination as baseless.
The
FDA is expected to comment on the findings this week. However, the agency has
yet to issue a public alert, recall the affected batches, or explain how vials
exceeding safety standards were allowed to reach the market.
The
Methods
The
student researchers employed two primary analytical methods:
·
NanoDrop Analysis – This technique uses UV
spectrometry to measure the combined levels of DNA and RNA in the vaccine.
While it provides an initial assessment, it tends to overestimate DNA
concentrations due to interference from RNA, even when RNA-removal kits are utilised.
·
Qubit Analysis – For more precise measurements, the
researchers relied on the Qubit system, which quantifies double-stranded DNA
using fluorometric dye.
Both
methods confirmed the presence of DNA contamination far above permissible
thresholds. These findings align with earlier reports from independent
laboratories in the United States, Canada, Australia, Germany, and France.
Expert
Reaction
Kevin
McKernan, a former director of the Human Genome Project, described the findings
as a “bombshell,” criticising the FDA for its lack of transparency.
“These
findings are significant not just for what they reveal but for what they
suggest has been concealed from public scrutiny. Why has the FDA kept these
data under wraps?” McKernan questioned.
While
commending the students’ work, he also noted limitations in the study’s
methods, which may have underestimated contamination levels.
More
FDA Lab Uncovers
Excess DNA Contamination in Covid-19 Vaccines ⋆ Brownstone
Institute
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
What Factors
Impact Graphene Cost?
11
February 2025
Graphene
has the potential to spur advances in a variety of sectors, from transport to
medicine to electronics. Unfortunately, the high cost of graphene production
has slowed commercialization.
Graphene
prices have come down substantially from its early days, when it reportedly
cost tens of thousands of dollars to make a piece of high-quality graphene the
size of a postage stamp.
However,
the 21st century wonder material remains expensive. Specific graphene pricing
data is hard to come by, but relatively recent estimates peg the
commercial cost
of graphene in a range of US$100 to US$10,000 per kilogram. The wide
variance is mainly because the price of graphene is determined by a number of
factors, such as production method, form, quality and quantity.
Graphene
has many exciting applications. Notably, its properties have been applied to
graphene-polymer composites. Together, these carbon-based materials are
effective in energy, biomedicine, aerospace and electronics applications. In
addition, graphene can be used for water purification due to its naturally
occurring water-repellent properties.
Other
key applications of graphene include graphene-conductive inks, which can be
used for printed electronics in applications like logic circuits, inkjet
printing, environmental sensors and smart clothing.
Here's
a look at how graphene is made, and why the production process plays a key role
in graphene cost.
What
is the origin of graphene?
Graphene's
origin story is by now well known. The 2D material was first produced in
2004, when two professors at the University of Manchester used Scotch tape to
peel flakes of it off a chunk of graphite.
The
story gives the impression that it's easy to make graphene, but that's not
entirely true. The Scotch tape method, while a fun party trick, can only
produce a very small amount of graphene — certainly not enough to use
commercially.
How is
graphene made?
The
Scotch tape method of making graphene is known as exfoliation, and there are
other ways to create graphene via exfoliated graphite as well. For instance, a
diamond wedge can cleave graphene layers.
But
what are some other ways of making graphene? Currently, the most popular method
is chemical vapor
deposition (CVD). The deposition process involves a mix of gases
reacting with a surface to create a graphene layer. The process creates
high-quality graphene, but the graphene is often damaged when it comes time to
detach it from its substrate.
Looking
at the process in greater depth, Graphenea states that
another problem with CVD is that it's difficult to create a totally uniform
layer of graphene on a substrate. Graphenea also notes that much work is being
put into reducing problems with CVD. For example, scientists are experimenting
with treating the substrate before the reaction that creates graphene takes
place. Even so, it's expected to take a long time for the wrinkles to be
smoothed out.
The Graphene Flagship
identifies a number of other ways of making graphene, including direct
chemical synthesis; the material can also be made by putting natural graphite
in a solution.
More,
much more.
What Factors
Impact Graphene Cost?
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Trade
barriers constitute isolation; isolation gives rise to hatred, hatred to war,
and war to invasion.
Frederic
Bastiat.
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