Baltic
Dry Index. 793 +22
Brent Crude 74.67
Spot Gold 2863 US 2 Year Yield 4.21 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 36.448 trillion!
“The benefits of a tariff are visible. Union workers can see they are “protected”. The harm which a tariff does is invisible. It’s spread widely. There are people that don’t have jobs because of tariffs but they don’t know it.”
Milton Friedman.
It is US jobs day again, with complacent stock casinos widely expecting nothing but good news.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are expecting nonfarm payrolls growth of 169,000 for the month, which is lower than the 256,000 jobs added in December. The unemployment rate is also expected to hold steady at 4.1%.
While I’m not expecting the latest stock bubble to burst today or next week, I am wondering what happens when the latest stocks bubble bursts in the middle of a 1930s style trade war. Nothing good I suspect.
Asia-Pacific markets mixed as investors assess
India rate cut, Japan spending data
Updated Fri, Feb 7 2025 11:54 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday as
investors assessed India’s interest rate decision and Japan’s household
spending data.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded flat.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.44% and
the Topix traded 0.39% lower. The country’s household
spending in December rose 2.7% year on year in real terms, sharply
beat Reuters’ expectations of a 0.2% rise.
South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.17%, while the
small-cap Kosdaq traded around the flatline.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.6%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.77%.
The Reserve Bank of India has
cut its key interest rate for the first time in nearly five years, as
cooling inflation has offered room to stimulate the slowing economy.
India’s benchmark stock indexes
the Nifty 50 and Sensex traded around the flatline. The Indian rupee,
which has weakened to an all-time low, strengthened slightly to 87.4 against
the greenback.
The Monetary Policy Committee decided to
trim the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra
said in a livestreamed address Friday.
The Reserve Bank of India is likely
to trim the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, as it
concludes its policy meeting later in the day.
Overnight in the U.S., the three major
averages closed higher. The S&P
500 climbed for a third straight session on Thursday as investors
weighed the latest batch of corporate earnings.
The broad market index added 0.36% to
6,083.57, while the Nasdaq
Composite rose 0.51% to 19,791.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average,
however, lost 125.65 points, or 0.28%, and closed at 44,747.63.
Wall Street is now awaiting January’s jobs
report, which is scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists
polled by Dow Jones are forecasting nonfarm payrolls growth of 169,000 for the
month, less than the 256,000
jobs added in December.
Asia
markets live: Reserve Bank of India decision, U.S. jobs report
Stock futures are little changed as investors
brace for big payrolls report: Live updates
Updated Fri, Feb 7 20258:03 PM EST
Stock futures were slightly lower Thursday
evening as January’s big jobs report loomed.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
3 points, or 0.01%. S&P
500 futures and Nasdaq
100 futures were both near the flatline.
In extended trading, Amazon tumbled 4%. Guidance
from the e-commerce giant disappointed investors, as Amazon called for revenue
growth of 5% to 9% in the first quarter — its weakest
growth on record. The outlook overshadowed top- and bottom-line beats in
the fourth quarter.
During Thursday’s main trading session,
the S&P 500 rose
about 0.4%, and the Nasdaq
Composite added 0.5%. It marked the third winning session in a row for
the two indexes. The Dow underperformed,
dipping roughly 0.3%.
All three major averages are on track to
finish the week with modest gains. The S&P 500 is on pace for a 0.7%
advance, while the Nasdaq is tracking for a 0.8% jump during the period. The
Dow is lagging, with a week-to-date climb of about 0.5%.
Stocks have managed to rebound from
Monday’s sell-off, which came after President Donald Trump over the
weekend announced 10% tariffs on China. He agreed to pause 25% levies on Canada
and Mexico.
The Trump administration will pose a “wild
card” for the market, BD8 Capital Partners CEO Barbara Doran said Thursday on
CNBC’s “Closing Bell:
Overtime.”
“There’s going to be add[ed] volatility in
the market, particularly with valuations where they are in general for the
market,” she said.
Traders’ focus now moves toward January’s
jobs report, which is slated for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones are expecting nonfarm payrolls growth of 169,000 for the
month, which is lower than the 256,000
jobs added in December. The unemployment rate is also expected to hold
steady at 4.1%.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Citi Sees Gold Soaring to $3,000 on Tensions
Triggered by Trump
Thu, February 6, 2025 at 4:07 PM GMT
(Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. expects gold
prices to hit a record $3,000 an ounce within three months, with geopolitical
tensions and trade wars stoked by US President Donald Trump boosting demand for
safe-haven assets.
Trump jolted markets with the prospect of
tariffs that could slow economic growth, reignite inflation and disrupt global
commerce. Investors will continue to seek bullion’s security and central banks
are likely to keep building out their reserves, analysts including Kenny Hu
wrote in a report.
“The gold bull market looks set to
continue under Trump 2.0,” the Citi analysts said, citing risks such as slower
growth and high interest rates.
Gold hit successive records in the past
few days as concerns about the tug of war between the US and China, as well as
the possibility Trump will impose duties on other nations, support bullion’s
role as a store of value in uncertain times.
Citi upgraded its three-month price target
for gold from $2,800 an ounce, which the precious metal has already surpassed.
Spot gold slipped as much as 1.2% to $2,834.26 an ounce on Thursday.
The bank also said that an appreciating US
dollar will increase the incentive for central banks from emerging economies to
boost gold holdings in order to support their own currencies, while investors
will turn both to physical gold and exchange-traded funds.
Trade-war fears have also led dealers in
London to shift metal to the US, fearing the possibility that bullion won’t be
excluded from potential tariffs. Premiums as of Wednesday implied a roughly 20%
chance of Trump including gold in a 10% blanket global tariff, Citi said.
More
Citi Sees Gold Soaring to $3,000 on Tensions Triggered by Trump
In other news.
Bank of England cuts interest rates despite
looming inflation surge
Thursday 06 February 2025 12:04
pm | Updated: Thursday 06 February 2025 12:21
pm
The Bank of England cut interest rates by
25 basis points on Thursday, even though rate-setters expect to see a
significant rise in inflation
over the coming year.
Seven members of the Bank’s Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) backed the decision, while two – Swati Dhingra and
Catherine Mann – voted for a larger 50 basis point cut.
The decision means that the benchmark Bank
Rate stands at 4.50 per cent, down from a peak of 5.25 per cent.
While investors had expected the Bank to
cut rates, many thought that at least one member of the MPC, likely Mann, would
have voted to hold rates steady.
Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s Governor, said:
“We’ll be monitoring the UK economy and global developments very closely and
taking a gradual and careful approach to reducing rates further,”
The vote split suggests the MPC is
increasingly concerned with weakness in the economy, meaning they will look
through the anticipated resurgence in inflation.
Inflation will rise to a peak of 3.7 per
cent in the third quarter of this year, according to the Bank’s latest
forecasts, a significant upgrade on its previous assessment of 2.8 per
cent.
The increase will largely be driven by
higher global energy prices, which have surged since November. Regulated prices
like water bills and bus fares will also play a role, the forecasts
suggest.
However, the MPC continued to predict that
the Budget tax hikes would only have a limited pass-through to consumer
prices.
Bank of England warns on inflation
Although the headline rate will rise, MPC
members noted that progress on underlying inflation has continued in recent
months.
Services inflation has fallen further than
expected, while wage growth is expected to “slow significantly” by the end of
2025, the MPC said.
It predicted that the pickup in headline
inflation would “not lead to additional second-round effects” which would
derail progress on underlying inflation.
Inflation will eventually return to target
in the final quarter of 2027, two quarters later than the Bank predicted in
November.
More
Bank of England
cuts interest rates despite looming inflation surge
Bank of England’s Bailey says UK can’t avoid U.S.
tariff impact — even if it’s not in the direct firing line
Published Thu, Feb 6 2025 11:01 AM EST Updated
Thu, Feb 6 2025 11:59 AM EST
Even if the U.K. is not the “direct
recipient” of potential tariffs imposed by the U.S., “it will have an effect,”
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Thursday.
If tariffs are announced, their effect on
the global economic growth and inflation would need to be looked at, Bailey
told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick.
“Now I think that in terms of growth in
the world economy, if this will lead to a, you know, fragmentation of the world
economy, that is not good for growth,” Bailey said. “The impact on inflation is
more ambiguous, because it depends upon what other countries do in response, it
depends on what the consequences of those actions and reactions are for trade,”
he added.
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned
that the U.K. could be in line for tariffs, but has also indicated a deal
could potentially be struck. Trump last week announced tariffs on goods
imported from China, Canada and Mexico, before pausing
planned duties on imports from the two latter economies.
Bailey on Thursday also noted that the
U.K. “does not have a substantial trade imbalance with the U.S.”
The U.S. was the U.K.’s biggest trading
partner in the year to September 2024, accounting for over 17% of total U.K.
trade, according to official data.
Depending on which figures you look at,
the two countries either have a small trade deficit or surplus. What’s important for Trump, though — who has
expressed dissatisfaction when the U.S. exports less to a country than it
imports — is the numbers are almost balanced.
Bailey also pointed out that services are
a large part of U.K. trade, which classic tariffs do not affect in the same way
as other goods.
More
Bank of England's Bailey says UK can't avoid U.S. tariff impact
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China
says will protect its own interests in face of U.S. ‘bullying’
Published
Thu, Feb 6 2025 3:53 AM EST
BEIJING
— China has toughened its tone following the Trump administration’s opening
salvo of trade tariffs.
“In
the face of one-sided acts of bullying, [China] will definitely take necessary
measures to firmly protect its own rights and interests,” Chinese Ministry of
Commerce Spokesperson He Yongqian told reporters Thursday, according to a CNBC
translation.
She
added that China would not provoke trade disputes and remained ready to resolve
problems through discussions. Beijing’s official commentary previously
emphasized the willingness to
negotiate.
China’s
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Lin Jian struck conveyed a similar
mood on Wednesday.
“China
firmly deplores and opposes the move of the U.S. to levy a 10 percent
additional tariff on Chinese imports under the pretext of the fentanyl issue,”
he said, according to an official English translation. “The measures China has
taken are what’s needed for safeguarding our legitimate rights and interests.”
CNBC
has reached out to the U.S. State Department for comment.
The
official remarks came just days after the U.S. announced 10% tariffs on
Chinese goods,
to which the Chinese side on Tuesday retaliated with its own duties of up to
15% on
U.S. liquefied natural gas and select products, starting Feb. 10.
The
U.S. also halted a so-called de minimis exemption,
making it more expensive for Chinese e-commerce merchants to ship products
directly to U.S. consumers.
Ministry
of Commerce spokesperson He on Thursday urged the U.S. to create a “fair and
predictable” environment for cross-border e-commerce.
China says will
protect its own interests in face of U.S. 'bullying'
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
New nasal vaccine
for COVID-19 set to begin clinical trial in the U.S.
Feb 5 2025
A nasal vaccine for
COVID-19 – based on technology developed at Washington University in St. Louis
– is poised to enter a phase 1 clinical trial in the U.S. after an
investigational new drug application from Ocugen, Inc. was approved by the Food
and Drug Administration (FDA). Ocugen, a U.S.-based biotechnology company,
licensed the innovative technology from WashU in 2022.
The trial will be
sponsored and conducted by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases (NIAID), of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). The FDA's action
is a critical first step toward initiation of the phase 1 trial, planned for
this spring.
While cases of COVID-19
have fallen dramatically since the early years of the pandemic, the virus
continues to circulate and still causes significant illnesses and deaths. The
nasal vaccine technology is designed to induce strong immunity in the nose and
upper respiratory tract, right where the virus enters the body, thereby
potentially stopping transmission of the virus in addition to reducing serious
illness and death. Most COVID-19 vaccines are injected into the arm or leg, and
while they are effective at reducing illness and death, they do not halt
transmission. The new trial will evaluate the safety and efficacy of the vaccine
administered via two routes: inhaled into the lungs and sprayed into the nose.
A version of the vaccine
has been available in India since 2022 through a licensing agreement
between WashU and the Indian biotechnology company Bharat Biotech.
The Phase 1 trial is
funded through Project NextGen, a U.S. government agency initiative to
develop next-generation COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics through
public-private partnerships.
The trial will enroll 80
adults ages 18 to 64 years. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of
four groups: low-dose intranasal, high-dose intranasal, low-dose inhaled and
high-dose inhaled. The primary aim of the trial is to determine safety, but
researchers will also assess immunogenicity by measuring antibody production
and efficacy by determining the number of breakthrough COVID-19 cases.
The investigational nasal
vaccine was co-developed by WashU Medicine scientists Michael S. Diamond,
MD, PhD, the Herbert S. Gasser Professor of Medicine and the co-director of the
Center for Vaccines & Immunity to Microbial Pathogens, and David T.
Curiel, MD, PhD, the Distinguished Professor of Radiation Oncology, along with
members of their laboratories.
Diamond and Curiel
inserted a gene from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into a
harmless virus known as an adenovirus. The adenovirus carries the SARS-CoV-2
protein into the nose, enabling people to mount an immune defense against the
SARS-CoV-2 virus without becoming sick.
"It is gratifying to
see the vaccine that we conceived, designed and conducted initial testing on
move closer to becoming available here in the U.S.," said Diamond, also a
professor of molecular microbiology and of pathology & immunology.
Diamond and Curiel's
early studies at WashU Medicine showed that nasal delivery of this vaccine
creates a strong immune response throughout the body, especially in the nose
and respiratory tract. In animal studies conducted in 2020 and 2021, the nasal
vaccine entirely prevented infection from taking hold in the nose and lungs -
suggesting that vaccinated individuals would be able to fend off the virus
before it could multiply and cause an infection. Last year, Jacco Boon,
PhD, a professor of medicine, of molecular microbiology and of pathology &
immunology at WashU Medicine, showed that hamsters vaccinated with the nasal
COVID-19 vaccine and subsequently infected did not pass the virus on to
others, breaking the cycle of transmission.
"All effective
vaccines reduce sickness and death, but COVID-19 vaccination through the nose
and mouth also seems to reduce transmission," said Curiel, also a
professor of medicine and of obstetrics & gynecology. "This capability
is critical in slowing the spread of respiratory infections such as COVID-19
through a population, and the same vaccine technology can be designed to target
other COVID-19 strains as well as influenza and other respiratory
viruses."
New nasal vaccine for COVID-19 set to begin clinical trial in the U.S.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
DeepSeek
has rattled large AI players — but smaller chip firms see it as a force
multiplier
Published
Thu, Feb 6 2025 10:40 PM EST
DeepSeek has rattled the
U.S.-led AI ecosystem with its latest model, shaving hundreds of billions in
chip leader Nvidia’s market
cap. While the sector leaders grapple with the fallout, smaller AI companies
see an opportunity to scale with the Chinese startup.
Several AI-related firms told
CNBC that DeepSeek’s emergence is a “massive” opportunity for them, rather
than a threat.
“Developers are very keen to
replace OpenAI’s expensive and closed models with open source models like
DeepSeek R1...” said Andrew Feldman, CEO of artificial intelligence chip
startup Cerebras Systems.
The company competes with
Nvidia’s graphic processing units and offers cloud-based services through its
own computing clusters. Feldman said the release of the R1 model generated one
of Cerebras’ largest-ever spikes in demand for its services.
“R1 shows that [AI market]
growth will not be dominated by a single company — hardware and software moats
do not exist for open-source models,” Feldman added.
Open source refers to
software in which the source code is made freely available on the web for
possible modification and redistribution. DeepSeek’s models are open source,
unlike those of competitors such as OpenAI.
DeepSeek also claims its R1
reasoning model rivals the best American tech, despite running at lower costs
and being trained without cutting-edge graphic processing units, though
industry watchers and competitors have questioned
these assertions.
“Like in the PC and internet
markets, falling prices help fuel global adoption. The AI market is on a
similar secular growth path,” Feldman said.
Inference chips
DeepSeek could increase the
adoption of new chip technologies by accelerating the AI cycle from the
training to “inference” phase, chip start-ups and industry experts said.
Inference refers to the act
of using and applying AI to make predictions or decisions based on new
information, rather than the building or training of the model.
“To put it simply, AI
training is about building a tool, or algorithm, while inference is about
actually deploying this tool for use in real applications,” said Phelix Lee, an
equity analyst at Morningstar, with a focus on semiconductors.
While Nvidia holds a dominant
position in GPUs used for AI training, many competitors see room
for expansion in the “inference” segment, where they promise higher
efficiency for lower costs.
More
DeepSeek
can be a force multiplier for smaller AI chip firms
Graphene Oxide
Coating Boosts Maize Seedling Growth
4 February
2025
A
recent study published in Scientific
Reports explores using graphene oxide
(GO) as a seed coating to enhance maize seedling growth. With the growing
demand for increased food production, particularly in the face of challenging
climatic conditions, researchers are investigating innovative methods to
improve crop yields. Maize, a key staple crop, is highly influenced by seed
quality and environmental factors, making advancements like GO-based treatments
particularly relevant.
Background
GO is
known for its unique structural and chemical properties, making it an
attractive candidate for nanotechnology
applications, including agriculture. Its
high surface area, mechanical strength, and ability to interact with biological
molecules offer potential benefits for plant growth. Previous studies suggest
that nanomaterials can
enhance seed germination, improve nutrient uptake, and increase plant
resilience against stressors such as drought and pests. Carbon-based
nanomaterials like GO are gaining attention for their non-toxic and
environmentally friendly characteristics in agricultural applications.
Related
Stories
The
researchers investigated the effects of different GO concentrations on maize
seedling growth under controlled conditions. Maize seeds were coated with a
composite formulation containing commercial seed treatment agents and varying
GO concentrations: 0 g/L (control), 22 g/L (T1), 44 g/L (T2), 66 g/L (T3), and
88 g/L (T4). The coated seeds were sown in polyethylene basins filled with soil
characterized by specific physical and chemical properties, including pH and
nutrient content.
The
study used a completely randomized design with three replicates per treatment
group. After 30 days of cultivation in a greenhouse, key growth parameters such
as plant height, stem diameter, root length, fresh weight, and dry weight were
measured. Raman spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were also
used to analyze the GO structure and its effects on seedling morphology.
Results
and Discussion
The
results showed that GO seed coatings significantly improved maize seedling
growth, with notable increases in total root length. Compared to the control
group, treatments T1, T2, T3, and T4 exhibited root length increases of 23.82
%, 79.34 %, 48.79 %, and 20.98 %, respectively. The T2 treatment (44 g/L GO)
demonstrated the highest increase in root length.
Aboveground
growth measurements—such as stem diameter, fresh weight, and dry
weight—followed a similar trend, increasing up to T2 before declining at higher
concentrations. This suggests an optimal GO concentration for stimulating
growth, beyond which excessive amounts may hinder physiological processes. The
study emphasizes the importance of optimizing GO levels for maximum benefits.
The
enhanced root development observed in GO-treated seedlings is likely due to
improved water and nutrient absorption. GO’s physicochemical properties may
also influence plant signaling pathways that promote growth. Interestingly,
while root development showed significant differences across treatments, plant
height remained relatively unchanged, indicating that root systems play a
crucial role in early seedling establishment.
More
Graphene Oxide
Coating Boosts Maize Seedling Growth
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and what would President Trump buy if
he actually does get his Sovereign Wealth Fund? (Given that the USA runs
deficits it would actually be a Sovereign Debt Fund.)
Greenland and the Panama Canal come to mind, but Gaza?
Gold and silver? Bitcoin? Nvidia? AI stocks? Diego Garcia? Finally, the big
one, Canada? Buying Canada would at
least link Alaska to the rest of the USA except Hawaii, although given Canada’s
winters, how long before most former Canadians were living in Florida, Arizona
and California?
Have a great weekend everyone.
“For
example, the supporters of tariffs treat it as self-evident that the creation
of jobs is a desirable end, in and of itself, regardless of what the persons
employed do. That is clearly wrong. If all we want are jobs, we can create any
number–for example, have people dig holes and then fill them up again, or
perform other useless tasks. Work is sometimes its own reward. Mostly, however,
it is the price we pay to get the things we want. Our real objective is not
just jobs but productive jobs–jobs that will mean more goods and services to
consume.”
Milton
Friedman.
No comments:
Post a Comment