Thursday, 20 February 2025

A DOGE Dividend. The Fed Frets On Tariffs. A China Trade Deal?

Baltic Dry Index. 904 +63          Brent Crude 75.85

Spot Gold 2946               US 2 Year Yield 4.28 -0.01    

US Federal Debt. 36.502 trillion!

Some people are born losers; others acquire the knack gradually.

W. C. Fields.

While the Fed worries that Trump’s tariffs will cause inflation, President Trump is thinking of giving Americans a 20 percent Department of Government Efficiency “dividend.”

In Ukraine war news, a nasty war of words between Presidents Trump and Zelensky.

Trump sees a trade deal with China.

In the stock casinos, a tale of two centers, America v Asia.

Asia markets down as Trump tariff threats, potentially higher-for-longer U.S. rates dent sentiment

Updated Thu, Feb 20 2025 10:47 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday, as investors weighed U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on autos, chips and pharmaceutical imports as well as the Federal Reserve potentially keeping rates higher for longer.

Trump, who said the duties could be implemented as soon as April 2, did not specify whether they will be targeted at imports from certain countries or be broad-based.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 started the day 0.37% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.13%.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropped 1.19%, while the broader Topix index fell 1.06%.

In South Korea, the Kospi declined 0.53%, while the small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.17%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 1.39%, declining for the fourth straight day.

The country’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in January, in line with Reuters’ estimates.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks continued to rise even as the Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed the bank was concerned about U.S. President Donald Trump tariffs, and would prefer a further decline in inflation before lowering rates.

The S&P 500 rose 0.24%, settling at 6,144.15 and earning its second record close in a row. The index also touched a fresh all-time high during the session. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.07% to close at 20,056.25, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 71.25 points, or 0.16%, to end at 44,627.59.

Asia markets live update: Stocks down on Trump tariff worries

S&P 500 futures inch lower after index notches fresh all-time high and record close: Live updates

Updated Thu, Feb 20 2025 7:36 PM EST

S&P 500 futures moved lower Wednesday evening on the heels of the broad market index scoring a new all-time high and a closing record in the regular trading session.

Futures tied to the S&P 500, along with Nasdaq-100 futures, fell nearly 0.2%. Meanwhile, futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 59 points, or 0.1%.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 posted its second consecutive winning session after hitting another all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite and the 30-stock Dow also finished in positive territory as investors shrugged off President Donald Trump’s warning of more tariffs.

“We have been using the word ‘resilient,’” Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Wealth Management said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. She added that she expects another high single-digit total return upside from here.

“We think that 2025 is going to be a year that investors have a chance to build on strength,” Ausenbaugh continued. “We see more room for this market rally to run.”

Investors also digested newly released minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting. The minutes showed that the central bank’s officials last month agreed that inflation needs to come down more before they cut interest rates again.

Elsewhere on the economic front, investors will be watching for weekly jobless claims data, which is due at 8:30 a.m. ET.

More earnings are also on deck, with big names such as Walmart and Alibaba set to report Thursday before the bell.

Stock market today: Live updates

Fed officials are worried about tariffs’ impact on inflation and see rate cuts on hold, minutes show

Published Wed, Feb 19 2025 2:01 PM EST Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 5:34 PM EST

Federal Reserve officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation come down more before lowering interest rates further, and expressed concern about the impact President Donald Trump’s tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided at the meeting to hold their key policy rate steady after three consecutive cuts totaling a full percentage point in 2024.

In reaching the decision, members commented on the potential impacts from the new administration, including chatter about the tariffs as well as the impact from reduced regulations and taxes. The committee noted that current policy is “significantly less restrictive” than it had been before the rate cuts, giving members time to evaluate conditions before making any additional moves.

Members said that the current policy provides “time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.“

Officials noted concerns they had about the potential for policy changes to keep inflation above the Fed’s target.

The president already has instituted some tariffs but in recent days has threatened to expand them.

In remarks to reporters Tuesday, Trump said he is looking at 25% duties on autos, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors that would accelerate through the year. While he did not delve too far into specifics, the tariffs would take trade policy to another level and pose further threats to prices at a time when inflation has eased but is still above the Fed’s 2% goal.

FOMC members cited, according to the meeting summary, “the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs.“

They further noted “upside risks to the inflation outlook. In particular, participants cited the possible effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.“

Since the meeting, most central bank officials have spoken in cautious tones about where policy is headed from here. Most view the current level of rates in a position where they can take their time when evaluating how to proceed.

More

Fed minutes January 2025:

Trump says he’s weighing giving 20% of DOGE savings to Americans

Published Wed, Feb 19 2025 10:52 AM EST

U.S. President Donald Trump revealed on Wednesday that he’s considering sending 20% of the money saved by the Department of Government Efficiency advisory group to Americans.

“There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20% goes to paying down debt,” Trump said during his remarks at the FII Priority Summit in Miami Beach, Fla.

His remarks came after Elon Musk said in a post on X Tuesday that he “Will check with the President” on a proposal to send U.S. households tax refund checks funded by savings created by DOGE’s cost-cutting campaign.

That was in response to a separate post from James Fishback, CEO of the Azoria investment firm, suggesting that Trump has the opportunity to issue a so-called DOGE Dividend.

Musk has said that his goal is to cut federal spending by $2 trillion, out of a $6.75 trillion annual budget in the latest fiscal year ended last Sept. 30. If that were met, Fishback suggests taking 20% of that, or $400 billion, and distributing it to taxpayers. That would amount to approximately $5,000 per household, he said.

“When a breach of this magnitude happens in the private sector, the counterparty, at minimum, refunds the customer since they failed to deliver what was promised,” Fishback wrote in his proposal. “It’s high time for the federal government to do the same, and refund money back to taxpayers given what DOGE has uncovered.”

More

Trump says he's weighing giving 20% of DOGE savings to Americans

Trump says new trade deal with China 'possible'

February 20, 2025 (Mainichi Japan)

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) -- U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he believes it is "possible" to strike a new trade deal with China, partly because he has a "very good relationship" with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

"But remember, he loves China, and I love the USA. So, you know, right there, there's a little bit of competitiveness," Trump told reporters on Air Force One, claiming that he achieved a "great trade deal" with China during his first presidency.

He asserted the past deal should have helped American farmers and manufacturers significantly but China's commitments to remove trade barriers did not turn out in that way, blaming his predecessor Joe Biden for failing to push Beijing to adhere to its promises.

Noting that French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are due to visit Washington "soon," Trump said, "We'll have, ultimately, President Xi."

In a TV interview aired last week, without offering details, Trump said he had spoken to Xi since returning to the White House for a nonconsecutive second term on Jan. 20.

The Trump administration has already imposed an additional 10 tariffs on goods from China, accusing Beijing of not doing enough to stop the shipment to North America of precursors necessary to make fentanyl, the leading cause of overdose deaths in the United States.

Trump has also frequently complained that China has a huge trade surplus with the United States. But at the same time, he has repeatedly shown his willingness to engage with Xi to discuss not only trade imbalances but also many other issues, including nuclear disarmament.

On Wednesday, Trump did not elaborate further but also said his administration will be speaking to China about the fate of TikTok's operation in the United States.

More

Trump says new trade deal with China 'possible' - The Mainichi

In other news, Wall Street favorite Nikola, from 30 billion to zero. Fools and their money comes to mind.

Embattled EV maker Nikola files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

Published Wed, Feb 19 2025 7:41 AM EST

DETROIT — Nikola Corp. — an auto startup that was once a favorite of Wall Street analysts and retail investors — filed for bankruptcy protection after failing to secure a buyer or raise additional funds to maintain operations.

The filing marks the finale of the Phoenix-based company’s yearslong fall from grace. At its peak in 2020, Nikola was valued more than Ford Motor at $30 billion, inked a multibillion-dollar deal with General Motors and was considered the pinnacle of auto startups to go public through reverse mergers and special purpose acquisition companies.

The company’s downfall has played out over years, ignited by scandals and lies involving its founder and former CEO and chairman Trevor Milton. The fast-talking, energetic, disgraced executive was convicted of wire fraud and securities fraud in 2022 for misleading investors about Nikola’s operations and zero-emissions technology.

The controversies were first made public by short-seller Hindenburg Research after the deal with GM that included the Detroit automaker taking a $2 billion stake in the startup.

Nikola’s core products are all-electric and fuel cell electric semitrucks, which it began producing in 2022. As of the third quarter of last year, the company had only produced 600 of the vehicles since then. Many of those vehicles have been recalled due to defects, costing the automaker tens of millions of dollars.

Since moving from chairman to CEO in 2023, Steve Girsky has kept Nikola moving forward, including its production of zero-emissions trucks, but the company’s capital has been dwindling.

Nikola warned investors on its third-quarter conference call that the company only had enough cash to support its business into the first quarter of 2025 but not beyond. Nikola reported $198 million in cash to end the third quarter.

Girsky on the call in October said Nikola was “actively talking to lots of potential different partners who value what we do and value what we’ve built.”

Girsky, a former bank analyst and GM executive, took Nikola public through his SPAC in June 2020. It was a catalyst for more EV companies to go public through SPACs.

Similarly to Nikola, most, if not all, have failed to live up to their initial expectations. Many were the center of federal investigations, scandals and executive upheavals.

Nikola’s stock has traded under $2 per share since early December. Factoring out a 1-for-30 reverse stock split last year, FactSet reports Nikola’s all-time closing price was nearly $80 in June 2020.

Nikola files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

You can fool some of the people some of the time -- and that's enough to make a decent living.

W. C. Fields.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

‘Alarm bells’ for Bank of England as inflation accelerates to three per cent

Wednesday 19 February 2025 7:03 am  |  Updated:  Wednesday 19 February 2025 7:34 am

Inflation picked up faster than expected at the start of the year, official data shows, as concerns grow about the persistence of price pressures in the economy.

The headline rate of inflation picked up to 3.0 per cent in January, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This was up from 2.5 per cent in December and above the 2.8 per cent expected by City traders.

“Inflation increased sharply this month to its highest annual rate since March last year,” Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS said.

Services inflation, the most important gauge of domestic price pressures, jumped to 5.0 per cent in January, up from 4.2 per cent in December, albeit slightly below the Bank of England’s forecast.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and energy, increased to 3.7 per cent, up from 3.2 per cent previously but in line with expectations.

“The leap in CPI inflation was no surprise, but it was larger than everyone expected,” Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics said.

Airfares to blame

The ONS said that airfares were a key factor behind the increase in inflation. Airfares tend to rise in December and fall in January, but the trend was “less pronounced” this year, it said.

This is because December’s data was collected on days which traditionally see lower demand, like Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, which meant prices were lower.

So although prices did fall in January, it was from a lower base. Airfares fell by 19.0 per cent in January, compared to negative 38.9 per cent a year ago

“The rise was driven by air fares not falling as much as we usually see at this time of year, partly impacted by the timing of flights over Christmas and New Year,” Fitzner said.

Other factors driving the overall increase in inflation were the introduction of VAT on private school fees, which saw prices rise by 13 per cent in the month, having not increased at all last year.

Prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks also rose at a faster pace than last year, particularly for meat, bread and cereals.

Concern for Bank of England

The figures come a day after new figures showed an acceleration in wage growth in the final three months of last year, which took regular private sector pay to its highest level since November 2023.

Combined with an uptick in inflation, the figures point to the lingering inflationary risks facing the UK economy, which will force the Bank of England to only cut interest rates at a “gradual” pace.

Zara Noakes, global market analyst at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the figures will “raise alarm bells at Threadneedle Street”.

More

Inflation accelerates to 3.0 per cent in blow for Bank of England

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

No increased risk to child of Covid-19 infection or vaccination in pregnancy

18 December 2025

Contracting Covid-19 or being vaccinated against it during pregnancy does not increase the risk of child developmental health issues, research indicates.

A study of the majority of children born in Scotland during the pandemic – 25,000 babies – found no link between concerns with a child’s development at 13 to 15 months and the mother contracting the virus during pregnancy.

Receiving the vaccine while pregnant also had no connection with issues in the infants in developing skills such as speech, thinking, movement and language, the Edinburgh University study found.

These important findings can help inform clinical guidance, and reassure pregnant individuals of the safety of Covid-19 vaccines

Researcher Iain Hardie said: “Our study suggests that neither SARS-CoV-2 infection, nor Covid-19 vaccination during pregnancy impact foetal brain development and subsequent child development up to age 13-15 months.

“These important findings can help inform clinical guidance, and reassure pregnant individuals of the safety of Covid-19 vaccines.”

The team linked data from a previous Covid-19 in Pregnancy in Scotland study on virus infections and Covid-19 vaccinations while pregnant to developmental concerns raised at routine health reviews.

The reviews recorded concerns with a child’s development aged 13-15 months raised by the parents, caregivers or health visitors.

Researchers found no evidence of a link between developmental concerns at that age and their mothers having either contracted Covid-19 or been vaccinated against it during pregnancy, regardless of the trimester the infection or vaccination occurred.

More

No increased risk to child of Covid-19 infection or vaccination in pregnancy

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New 2D carbon material is tougher than graphene and resists cracking

18 February 2025

Researchers have found that a two-dimensional carbon material is tougher than graphene and resists cracking—even the strongest crack under pressure, a problem materials scientists have long been grappling with. For instance, carbon-derived materials like graphene are among the strongest on Earth, but once established, cracks propagate rapidly through them, making them prone to sudden fracture.

A new carbon material known as monolayer amorphous carbon (MAC) however, is both strong and tough. In fact, MAC—which was recently synthesized by the group of Barbaros Özyilmaz at the National University of Singapore (NUS)—is eight times tougher than graphene, according to a new study from Rice University scientists and collaborators, published in the journal Matter.

Like graphene, MAC is also a 2D or single atom-thick material. But unlike graphene where atoms are arranged in an ordered (crystalline) hexagonal lattice, MAC is a composite material that incorporates both crystalline and amorphous regions. It is this composite structure that gives MAC its characteristic toughness, suggesting that a composite design approach could be a productive way to make 2D materials less brittle.

"This unique design prevents cracks from propagating easily, allowing the material to absorb more energy before breaking," said Bongki Shin, a materials science and nanoengineering graduate student who is the study's first author.

This is great news for 2D materials, which have enabled transformative innovations across multiple fields, from faster and more efficient electronics to high-capacity energy storage, advanced sensors and wearable technologies. To be able to put their extraordinary properties to even further use, materials scientists have to contend with their brittleness, which has so far limited their real-world application.

To make 2D nanomaterials tougher, one can either add reinforcing nanostructures to the thin films—a method described in the study as "extrinsic toughening"—or introduce modifications within the plane of the material—"intrinsic toughening." The in-plane structure of MAC offered an ideal case study for testing the fracture toughness of nanocomposites made up of ordered (crystalline) regions embedded inside a disordered (amorphous) matrix.

"We believe that this structure-based toughening strategy could work for other 2D materials, so this work opens up exciting possibilities for advanced materials design," said Jun Lou, professor of materials science and nanoengineering and of chemistry who is a corresponding author on the study.

Rice researchers used in situ tensile testing inside a scanning electron microscope to observe cracks forming and propagating in real time. This allowed them to directly observe how the MAC nanocomposite structure resists crack propagation. The group led by Markus Buehler at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ran molecular dynamics simulations, which let them zoom in at the atomic level to understand how the mix of crystalline and amorphous regions affects fracture energy.

"This hadn't been done before because creating and imaging an ultrathin, disordered material at the atomic scale is extremely challenging," said Yimo Han, assistant professor of materials science and nanoengineering and corresponding author on the study. "However, thanks to recent advances in nanomaterial synthesis and high-resolution imaging, we were able to uncover a new approach to making 2D materials tougher without adding extra layers."

More information: Bongki Shin et al, Intrinsic toughening in monolayer amorphous carbon nanocomposites, Matter (2025). DOI: 10.1016/j.matt.2025.102000

Provided by Rice University

New 2D carbon material is tougher than graphene and resists cracking

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Money will not buy happiness, but it will let you be unhappy in nice places.

W. C. Fields. 

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