Wednesday, 12 February 2025

Tariff Madness. Tariffs On Top Of Tariffs. US CPI Day.

Baltic Dry Index. 801 -08            Brent Crude 76.68

Spot Gold 2886               US 2 Year Yield 4.29 +0.01  

US Federal Debt. 36.468 trillion!

In the stock casinos massive, misplaced complacency. Tariffs don’t matter! The prospect of a renewed Gaza war starting Saturday afternoon, doesn’t matter.

That the Fed will wait longer to reduce their key US interest rate, doesn’t matter.

That tariffs on the EU will drive the rest of the EU into recession like Germany, doesn’t matter.

That John Bull is headed into a  UK government recession via the coming April tax hikes, doesn’t matter.

Well maybe, but to Dinosaur Graeme following commodities and stocks since 1968, I think the stock casinos are making a giant mistake opting for complacency.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors assess Trump tariff impact

Updated Wed, Feb 12 2025 12:21 AM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Wednesday as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff impact on regional economies.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, meanwhile, re-emphasized on Tuesday the central bank’s focus on curbing inflation and signaled that policymakers were not in a rush to push interest rates lower.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded up 0.%.5

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.23% after resuming trading following a holiday, while the Topix slid 0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.31% and the small-cap Kosdaq lost 0.64%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.56% while mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.13% in choppy trading.

India is slated to report its inflation data for January.

The benchmark Nifty 50 started the day down 0.94%, while the BSE Sensex index fell 0.97%.

SoftBank Group will be posting its fiscal third-quarter earnings later in the day.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages closed mixed. The S&P 500 added 0.03% to end at 6,068.50, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.36% to close at 19,643.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 123.24 points, or 0.28%, to 44,593.65.

Powell’s testimony comes at a volatile time in Washington with President Donald Trump favoring tariffs against U.S. trading partners and with mixed messages coming from the administration on its approach to the Fed.

Powell said the current policy stance, with the benchmark Fed funds rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, is providing flexibility. The Federal Open Market Committee held the rate in place at its late-January meeting.

Asia-Pacific markets live updates: India CPI, SoftBank Group earnings

European markets head for positive open as traders await latest U.S. inflation data

Updated Wed, Feb 12 2025 12:24 AM EST

European markets are heading for a positive open Wednesday as global markets await the latest inflation reading out of the U.S.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 4 points higher at 8,785, Germany’s DAX up 75 points at 22,104, France’s CAC up 12 points at 8,042 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 102 points higher at 37,798, according to data from IG.

Global market focus is on the latest U.S. consumer price index report for January that will be published on Wednesday.

Headline inflation is expected to have grown 0.3% from the prior month and 2.9% from 12 months earlier, according to Dow Jones. Some economists on Wall Street have raised concerns that even as certain categories may see disinflation, Trump’s tariffs could offset that. More inflation data is due on Thursday, with the producer price index set to be released.

Traders were on guard Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that policymakers were in no hurry to make more interest rate cuts. Powell will appear before the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday.

S&P 500 futures were near the flatline Tuesday evening as investors awaited January’s consumer inflation report. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose overnight.

In Europe, earnings come from RandstadHeinekenEssilorLuxotticaMichelinDeutsche Boerse and Siemens Energy on Wednesday.

European markets live updates: stocks, U.S. inflation data, earnings

S&P 500 futures are little changed as traders brace for January consumer inflation report: Live updates

Updated Wed, Feb 12 2025 7:37 PM EST

S&P 500 futures were near the flatline Tuesday evening as investors awaited January’s consumer inflation report.

Futures tied to the broad market index ticked up 0.03%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added just 10 points. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.1% higher.

Traders were on guard Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that policymakers were in no hurry to make further interest rate cuts. It was the first of two appearances for Powell on Capitol Hill this week, and it occurs at a time when President Donald Trump has been willing to issue tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Indeed, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on Monday.

These trade tensions have kept the market in check, with the S&P 500 ending Tuesday near the flatline, while the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 0.4%. The Dow outperformed, adding about 0.3%.

Traders get another piece of data — and another market catalyst — on Wednesday morning with January’s consumer price index reading. Headline inflation is expected to have grown 0.3% from the prior month and 2.9% from 12 months earlier, according to Dow Jones. Some economists on Wall Street have raised concerns that even as certain categories may see disinflation going forward, Trump’s tariffs could offset that.

Even with these concerns, the economy remains resilient and investors should bear that in mind, said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.

More

Stock market today: Live updates

Tesla drops 6% after BYD partners with DeepSeek, Musk adds to DOGE distractions with OpenAI bid

Published Tue, Feb 11 2025 5:22 PM EST Updated Tue, Feb 11 2025 6:37 PM EST

Tesla shares dropped 6% on Tuesday after Chinese rival BYD announced plans to develop autonomous vehicle technology with DeepSeek, and said it would offer its Autopilot-like system in nearly all of its new cars, adding to fears that Elon Musk’s company is falling behind the competition.

There’s also growing concerns surrounding Musk’s distractions outside of Tesla, after news surfaced that the world’s richest person is offering to lead an investor group in purchasing OpenAI, while he steps up his work with President Donald Trump’s White House.

Tesla’s stock price has slid for five straight days, falling close to 17% over that stretch to $328.50, and wiping out over $200 billion in market cap.

BYD, which has emerged as Tesla’s fiercest rival on the world stage, said on Monday that at least 21 of its new model vehicles will come equipped with its partially automated driving systems that include features for automatic parking and navigating on highways.

Tesla doesn’t yet offer a robotaxi and its EVs currently require a human driver to remain at the wheel, ready to steer or brake at any time. On Tesla’s earnings call last month, Musk said the company is aiming to launch “Unsupervised Full Self-Driving,” and a driverless rideshare service in Austin, Texas, in June. Alphabet’s Waymo already operates a robotaxi service in Austin as well as in parts of Phoenix, San Francisco.

“In our view, competition between Waymo, Tesla and a host of Chinese players is a key driver on the path to commercialization” of robotaxis,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients after the BYD announcement. The firm recommends buying the stock and has a price target of $430.

Waymo said on Tuesday that it added 10 square miles of coverage to its robotaxi service in Los Angeles.

In a report on Tuesday, Oppenheimer analysts wrote that the “autonomy competition may limit [Tesla] profitability.” Even if Tesla meets its June 2025 timeline for driverless cars in Texas, the company is “one of several autonomous technology providers, suggesting competition on price and performance,” they wrote.

More

Tesla drops 7% on self-driving competition, Musk OpenAI distractions

Next, tariff news latest.

Tariffs atop tariffs? White House says levies on Canada would be cumulative

Trump administration insists this could mean 50 per cent in tariffs next month

Posted: Feb 11, 2025 6:15 PM EST

If the U.S. were to proceed with all the tariffs it's threatening next month, there's no way they'd all be compounded atop each other into one astronomical total, right? Wrong, says the Trump administration.

The White House said Tuesday that should all its trade actions take effect in March, it would indeed pile tariff on top of tariff, to reach the larger number of 50 per cent on some items.

At the moment, the U.S. is threatening two actions: a worldwide tariff of 25 per cent on steel and aluminum starting March 12, and it has also paused, until March 4, the threat of an economy-wide 25 per cent tariff on Canada and Mexico while it works on border-security deals with both countries.

CBC News sought clarity from the White House on how these actions would work together. A White House official replied: "If the prior tariffs that were paused are reinstated, they would stack on each other, so 25 per cent [plus] 25 per cent."

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is threatening even more tariffs for a variety of reasons, including on automobiles. These threats, taken together, hint at a penalty so eye-watering that it will inevitably fuel speculation about just how much of this is real and how much is intended as negotiating leverage for Trump.

The U.S. is deeply reliant on Canadian aluminum, in particular, and critics of the tariffs argue they will merely punish U.S. companies importing a product they will need for the foreseeable future.

But a Trump White House aide Tuesday insisted the U.S. has real grievances it's looking to address in the metals industry and believes tariffs can help.

Peter Navarro said U.S. aluminum mills are operating at roughly half-capacity, while Canada's are busily humming at near-total capacity. This action is designed to rebalance that. 

He said previous exemptions from tariffs, including those given to Canada and Mexico in 2019, had not worked out, and now Trump is imposing one worldwide levy. 

"The [U.S.] steel industry's on its knees. Aluminum's flat on its back," Navarro told Fox News.

"The president says no more country exemptions. No more product exclusions."  

It's not just Chinese and Russian overproduction hurting U.S. mills, according to Navarro. "It's all of our friends and allies we gave special treatment to. And instead of abiding by the rules of that they abused them," he said.

He mentioned Brazil, Japan and Australia specifically. When the Fox News interviewer brought up Canada, Navarro complained about Canadian government investments to upgrade an old ArcelorMittal aluminum facility in Hamilton, saying it gave the Canadian producer an advantage. 

Tariffs atop tariffs? White House says levies on Canada would be cumulative | CBC News

In other news, how the Pentagon plotted to attack Americans in America and blame it on Castro’s Cuba.

Secret Military Files Reveal Pentagon's Terror Attacks on U.S. Soil

10 February 2025

Secret military files exposed Pentagon brass who plotted to carry out sinister acts of sabotage on U.S. soil – and potentially kill civilian refugees – as part of a false flag operation to ignite public support for invading Cuba and toppling then-dictator Fidel Castro, Knewz.com can reveal.

Dubbed Operation Northwoods, the Cold War-era plan hatched by the Joint Chiefs of Staff proposed sparking violent incidents and blaming Cuba – all to trigger war within the Caribbean nation and force out its leader.

According to the unearthed files dated March 1962, the shocking list of acts that the Pentagon planned to pin on Castro included:

Orchestrating a “Communist Cuba terror campaign” in Miami or Washington D.C. that would involve “exploding a few plastic bombs in carefully chosen spots.”

Carrying out fabricated assassination attempts on Cuban refugees inside the U.S. – and even going so far as to wound them.

Sinking a boatful of Cubans fleeing the Communist country, but stipulating the horror could be “real or simulated.”

Using a stolen or fake Soviet MIG fighter plane to blow out of the sky an empty remote-controlled commercial airplane.

Simulating an attack on the U.S. naval installation at Cuba’s Guantanamo Bay, including blowing up ammunition inside the base, sabotaging fighter plans – and even lobbing live mortar shells into the compound.

Blowing up an empty U.S. navy vessel in the bay and conducting mock funerals for soldiers who had supposedly died in the so-called attack.

Sources said the insane schemes concocted by the Joint Chiefs – and signed by their chairman, Army Gen. Lyman Lemnitzer, who was replaced three months later – were eventually rejected by President John F. Kennedy.

At the time, JFK was attempting to de-escalate tensions with the Soviet Union and its longtime ally Cuba, which sits about 90 miles off America’s shore.

Presidential historian Leon Wagner explained: “You have to understand that Kennedy didn’t want war with the Soviet Union and was also deeply mistrustful of the Pentagon and its motives following the botched Cuban Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.”

The infamous invasion saw U.S.-backed Cuban exiles fail to overthrow Castro’s regime, which endured until 2008.

Wagner added Kennedy “knew” the Pentagon wanted war with Cuba – “at the least” – and “he was determined to do everything in his power to stop it.”

Sources noted Operation Northwoods wasn’t the only plot created by the Pentagon to justify going to battle with the island adversary.

In 1962, Operation Dirty Trick sought to point the finger at Cuba if something went awry with the Mercury-Atlas 6 mission, in which astronaut John Glenn first orbited the Earth.

Sources said the Pentagon also proposed attacking an American-allied country and then blaming Cuba, as well as bribing a Cuban military commander to attack the Guantanamo Bay base so that it appeared Castro had given the order.

This unflinching exposé about the proposed plots comes days after President Donald Trump ordered the release of the remaining long-hidden files in the National Archives about the 1960s assassinations of JFK, Robert F. Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr.

Trump heralded the move as “the first step toward restoring transparency and accountability to government.”

Now, critics charge that the trove of documents outlining Operation Northwoods are a testament to how badly the Cold War-era Pentagon lusted after conflict with Cuba and the Soviet Union.

Wagner added: “They clearly would stop at almost nothing to provoke a confrontation, but Kennedy didn’t want it – and a lot of people, including myself, believe that he was assassinated because of it.

Secret Military Files Reveal Pentagon's Terror Attacks on U.S. Soil

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Now Comes A Labor Market Hard Stop—No More Government Jobs, No More Foreign-Born Workers

Feb 11, 2025

Another Jobs Friday report and still more of the same old, same old from the BLS. There were allegedly 143,000 new jobs created in January, and, as usual, fully 92% of them were in the lowest productivity sectors of the US economy:

Establishment Survey Job Gains In January 2025:

  • Healthcare/social assistance: +66,000
  • Retail: +34,000.
  • Government: +32,000.
  • All other: +11,000.
  • Total jobs: +143,000.
  • Health/Retail/Government % of Total: 92%

Also, unsurprisingly, there was not a lot of good news among the meager gains in the “all other” category, which accounts for upwards of 98 million payroll jobs. Even if you annualize the January gain, it would amount to a mere 0.1% increase in employment in this vast swath of the labor force.

Furthermore, most of the high productivity industries within this 98 million labor market sector either lost jobs in January or treaded water.

Distribution of January’s 11,000 Job Gain in “All Other”

  • Professional and business: -11,000.
  • Energy/mining/logging: -7,000.
  • Construction: +4,000.
  • Manufacturing: +3,000.
  • Transportation & Warehousing: +1,000.
  • Other: +21,000.
  • Net Gain, all other: +11,000

Then again, these are the monthly change numbers, which should be taken with a grain of salt. After all, the BLS also saw fit to revise downward the previously reported numbers for the last 12 months by an average of 589,000 jobs!

That’s right. Compared to the usual Jobs Friday excitement when these monthly numbers were first published, here is the BLS’s confession as to the difference between what its goal-seeked monthly “model” ginned up versus what actually happened out in the US labor market. That is, once the BLS got the actual state-by-state job numbers from the unemployment insurance system, which numbers come in with a lag of several quarters.

The latter, of course, are are based on the profound desire of tens of millions of US businesses to not report phantom jobs or pay mandatory UI taxes on even one more worker than they actually have punching the clock. As a consequence, in the 10 monthly reports prior to the November election the BLS’s goal-seeked model reported 337,000 job gains that didn’t happen in the real world (final column on the right)

Now Comes A Labor Market Hard Stop—No More Government Jobs, No More Foreign-Born Workers

Retailers unite to warn Treasury on ‘perfect storm’ of costs

Tuesday 11 February 2025 12:01 am  |  Updated:  Tuesday 11 February 2025 7:09 am

A heavyweight group of retailers has warned the Treasury that hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk in the retail sector due to unsustainable cost hikes this year.

It’s the latest in a long string of warnings from the retail sector, which has been vocal about the coming damage to jobs and investment on the British high street.

The Retail Jobs Alliance (RJA), which includes Tesco, Marks & Spencer and B&Q-owner Kingfisher, warned that retailers are facing “a perfect storm” of additional costs from this April.

It said a higher national insurance bill, plus a new recycling tax and higher business rates, will see 300,000 jobs disappear by 2030.

Chief executive of M&S, Stuart Machin, said over the weekend that “retail is being raided like a piggy bank and it’s unacceptable”.

“The blunt truth is… the budget means UK retail will get smaller,” Machin wrote in The Times, adding that while Reeves’ long-term growth ambitions are welcome “action [needs to be] taken to encourage growth today”.

Andrew Griffith, Shadow Business Secretary, said: “Retailers are often the canary in the coalmine of the state of the economy. For major high street names to issue this stark warning shows that no one’s economic future is safe.

Although the Labour’s cabinet has no real experience of business, surely, they must heed the warnings and change course now.”

Retail’s ‘permacrisis’

Retail has had a rough ride since the financial crisis of 2008, with a combination of online shopping, a Covid-19 hangover and high taxes all compounding the issue, according to the Centre for Retail Research (CRR) with around 85,000 shops having closed since 2018.

With many out of the habit of high street shopping, shops have been struggling with a lack of in-store customers – even by early 2023, customer footfall was 10 per cent lower than in 2019, and in major cities the effect was more pronounced.

Brits have instead turned to experiences like meals out, city breaks, gym memberships and subscriptions to streaming services, leaving less to spend in shops.

Analysts and companies alike have argued that changes announced in the budget are only set to make the issue worse, with an already-high tax bill set to rise by £4.5bn, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

The BRC attributed £2bn of this to the new packaging levy and £2.33 to higher national insurance contributions (NICs).

Retail businesses will be especially badly hit by the changes the government has made to employer NICs due a heavy reliance on part-time workers, many of whom were previously exempt from the tax as their pay didn’t reach the old threshold. The sector also has particularly low margins, of three to five per cent.

Peel Hunt has estimated that retail firms in their coverage will see pretax profit fall by an average of 7.5 per cent as a result of the Budget’s tax increase, although some will be hit much worse than others.

“Retail and hospitality are among the most exposed sectors to [budget] cost pressures,” associate director at Frontier Economics, Tim Black, said.

“In low-margin, highly competitive markets, there’s limited room to absorb higher costs – instead they’ll ultimately need to be passed on through higher prices, or cutbacks made to jobs – as a large group of retailers warned the Chancellor in November,” he added.

More

Retailers unite to warn Treasury on 'perfect storm' of costs

EU says it will launch countermeasures after US imposes tariffs

11 February 2025

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced a firm response to the special tariffs on steel and aluminium imports ordered by US President Donald Trump.

"I deeply regret the US decision to impose tariffs on European steel and aluminium exports," the EU leader said.

"Unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered - they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures," she added.

The European Union will act to protect its economic interests, von der Leyen added. She said the EU would defend workers, companies and consumers. She called tariffs a tax – bad for companies and even worse for consumers.

Von der Leyen did not initially say how exactly the EU intends to react. It is likely that special tariffs on US products such as jeans, bourbon whiskey, motorcycles and peanut butter, which are currently suspended, will be reintroduced immediately.

The EU imposed such tariffs during Trump's first term in office, when US special tariffs on steel and aluminium exports from the EU were introduced for the first time. They are currently suspended under an agreement with the former US administration of Joe Biden.

EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič told the European Parliament in Strasbourg that the extent of the measures ordered by Trump is currently being examined. After that, countermeasures will be taken.

At the same time, he emphasized that the EU is open to negotiations in order to find mutually beneficial solutions wherever possible.

According to an earlier assessment by von der Leyen, the European Union and Trump could, for example, conclude a new deal to expand American exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

It would also be possible to import more military technology and agricultural goods from the United States and to lower import tariffs for US cars.

At 10%, these were recently significantly higher than the US tariff of 2.5%.

EU says it will launch countermeasures after US imposes tariffs

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Man, 29, died after falling from a bridge after he suffered 'devastating' reaction to the Covid 19 vaccination, inquest told

By CIARAN FOREMAN

Published: 15:55, 9 February 2025 | Updated: 15:57, 9 February 2025

A 29-year-old man who died by suicide suffered from a 'devastating' two-year brain degeneration after receiving a Covid-19 booster jab, a coroner has ruled.

Andrew Heys, 29, is said to have reacted 'very badly' to the vaccine in December 2021 which saw him develop a rare autoimmune disease known as Post-Vaccination Auto-Immune Encephalopathy.

And the disease which can incite memory loss, seizures, insomnia, delusions and paranoia has been listed as one of the causes of Mr Heys' death, as well as drowning.

On the day of his death last year, the 29-year-old from Salford, Manchester, climbed over a bridge at Manchester Ship Canal and dialled 999, but due to signal issues he hung up and the case was 'closed'.

It was reported that 'desperate' Mr Heys' final words to the call handler were 'forget it' and moments later he fell into the water and drowned on March 12, 2024.

His body was found four days later.

Now, a coroner at Bolton Coroners Court has raised concerns into the circumstances of Mr Heys' death, after hearing how the 999 call operator failed to return the 29-year-old's call to the Ambulance Service.

John Pollard, Assistant Coroner for West Manchester, said: 'He reacted very badly to the vaccination and thereafter suffered from Auto-Immune Encephalopathy, the effects of which were devastating both physically and mentally.'

It was reported that Mr Heys called 999 in the early hours of the morning and was put through to an on-call locum GP.

The medical professional told an inquest into Mr Heys' death that she could not hear what he was saying as his phone connection was weak.

After struggling with the signal, Mr Heys told the call handler to 'forget it' and ended the call before he climbed over the parapet and fell into the water.

Mr Pollard said that during the inquest, he heard that the GP who was acting on behalf of the out-of-hours provider, BARDOC, had 'never been trained' by them in how to follow their pathways.

'This meant that she "closed" the call alter speaking to the patient, rather than returning it to the Ambulance Service as should have happened,' the coroner said.

'She was also confused about how she could access the patient's own GP records; again, she said she had not had any training in this regard.

More

Man, 29, died after falling from a bridge after he suffered 'devastating' reaction to the Covid 19 vaccination, inquest told | Daily Mail Online

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New study shows EV batteries retain up to 99 pct health after 120,000 kms

February 11, 2025

A new study released in Australia shows that electric vehicles maintain more than 90 per cent of their battery health, even after 120,000 kilometres and more than four years on the road.

The report, from Australian used car marketplace Pickles, challenges common fears about EV battery degradation, which are cited as one of the biggest barriers to purchasing an EV. One 2023 report from the Green Finance Institute found 62 per cent of the respondents said they would not purchase an EV because of concerns about battery lifespan.

However, the new report finds that  Hyundai EVs showed an impressive 99.31 per cent battery health after 120,000 kms, while BYD was a close second at 98.62 per cent, exceeding Tesla’s previous record.

“These results provide some of the first insights available in the Australian market are in relation to used EV battery health,” said Fraser Ronald, Chief Commercial Officer at Pickles.

The data was gathered by testing more than 250 EVs provided to Pickles across major Australian cities (an obviously small sample size).

The company said it was in the final stages of developing an EV battery health assurance process which would give its customers greater confidence when making EV purchases.

Used EV sales through Pickles were up 190% last year, selling a record-smashing 334 used EVs in 2024. The company said growing variety, lower prices and the Fringe Benefits Tax (FBT) exemption were all at play in the dramatic uptick in sales.

“Private buyers are leading the charge, with 51% of EVs sold at Pickles going to individual customers, compared to just 24% for petrol and diesel vehicles,” said Ronald.

This uptick was also seen in the UK, where sales of second-hand EVs were up 57 per cent on the year before according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

More

New study shows EV batteries retain up to 99 pct health after 120,000 kms

Exploding Battery Pack Forces Evacuation: 72 Battery Fires in 2024

Exploding Battery Pack Forces Evacuation: 72 Battery Fires in 2024 - YouTube

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)


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