Baltic
Dry Index. 738 +03
Brent Crude 75.06
Spot Gold 2815 US 2 Year Yield 4.26 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 36.435 trillion!
“Would
it be possible to find a more ungrateful President, or one with less heart than
I have!”
DJT,
with apologies to Carlo Collodi, and Pinocchio.
In what was supposed to be day one of the Great USA trade war on Canada and Mexico, President Trump delayed the trade war by 30 days, but the extra 10 percent tariffs went into effect against China.
China immediately retaliated with 15 percent tariffs on some US exports to China.
The EU, threatened yesterday with tariffs by President Trump, closed ranks and threatened immediate retaliation if President Trump levies tariffs on the EU.
In the US and global stock casinos, relief and great uncertainty as to how to trade the Great Trump Tariff War delayed.
Asia-Pacific markets jump as Trump tariff pause
boosts investor sentiment
Updated Tue, Feb 4 2025 11:54 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday after
Donald Trump paused
tariffs on Mexico for a month, while Canada also said the U.S.
president had put on hold proposed tariffs on its
exports.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was trading 1.15%
higher, while the broader Topix index advanced 1.06%.
South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.52% while the
small-cap Kosdaq gained 3.09%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was trading
up 2%.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.2%.
Indian stocks started the day higher, with
the benchmark Nifty 50 up
0.62% while the BSE Sensex index rose 0.58%.
Chinese markets remain closed for the
Lunar New Year holiday.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks traded down
following Trump’s decision to pause tariffs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered
from steep losses during. The 30-stock index was down 122.75 points, or 0.28%,
to close at 44,421.91. At its lows of the day, the Dow was down 665.6 points,
or 1.5%.
The S&P 500 slid 0.76% to
5,994.57, while the Nasdaq
Composite slumped 1.2% to 19,391.96.
Asia
markets live updates: Asia markets set to climb
China to levy tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S.
imports starting Feb. 10
Published Tue, Feb 4 2025 12:14 AM EST
China’s finance ministry said Tuesday it will impose 15%
tariffs on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% duties
on crude oil, farm equipment and certain cars, starting Feb. 10.
The tariffs announcement comes as the
additional 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports came into effect on Tuesday
stateside.
China
to levy tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports starting Feb. 10
CNBC Daily Open: Trump pauses tariffs but markets
are still wary
Published Mon, Feb 3 202 58:28 PM EST
The tariffs are not happening immediately
— at least for Mexico and Canada. In what appeared to be another successful
deal negotiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, the two countries agreed to
ramp up their border protection, leading to a pause in tariffs.
Markets heaved a sigh of relief and made
sharp turnarounds on the news. But persistent jitters about long-term
uncertainty kept stocks from having a positive day. Trump’s comments on Sunday
that he agreed with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates
unchanged could have also watered down investors’ expectations (however
far-fetched) for lower rates.
Alphabet’s earnings, releasing later
today, might attract the most attention, but in the current Trump-dominated
context, it’d be interesting to see how Toyota Motor and Ford, which report earnings Wednesday, talk
about — or around — how tariffs will affect their businesses.
What you need to know today
Trump tariffs on hold
U.S.
President Donald Trump on Monday agreed to pause tariffs on
Canada for
at least 30 days, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a post on X.
Trudeau’s announcement came hours after Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum
disclosed on X that Trump was holding off
tariffs on its exports for one month. The delay comes after the two
countries agreed to take steps toward preventing the trafficking of fentanyl
into the U.S.
Markets stage comeback but still in the
red
All
major U.S. indexes ended Monday in
the red.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average retreated
0.28%, paring losses of 1.5% earlier in the day, after news of the tariff pause
broke. The S&P 500 slid 0.76%
and the Nasdaq Composite slumped
1.2%. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 index dropped
0.87%. Auto stocks such as Volkswagen, Porsche and BMW were among the biggest
losers,
though they recovered from steeper falls earlier.
U.S. sovereign wealth fund
Trump
signed on Monday an executive order that outlines plans for a U.S.
government-run sovereign wealth fund. While it aims to develop infrastructure
such as airports and highways, it could also help the U.S. extend its influence
in areas such as Panama and Greenland and even be used to buy TikTok.
‘Right thing to do’ — steady rates
In
an apparent change of mind, Trump said the U.S. Federal Reserve holding
interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5% at its January meeting “was the right
thing to do.”
The statement stood in stark contrast to one Trump
delivered when
speaking remotely to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In a Jan.
23 appearance, Trump said he would “demand that interest rates drop
immediately.”
More
CNBC Daily Open:
Trump pauses tariffs but markets are still wary
Trump to Pause Tariffs for 30 Days After
Talking With Trudeau, Canada Will Appoint ‘Fentanyl Czar’
The development came hours after Mexican
President Claudia Sheinbaum reached a similar deal with Trump
3 February 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to
pause tariffs on Canada for 30 days after talking with Canadian Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau in the afternoon of Feb. 3.
The agreement between the two leaders
entails Canada appointing a “fentanyl czar” and designating drug cartels as
terrorist organizations, as well as committing C$200 million (US$139 million)
for intelligence operations to combat fentanyl.
“Canada has agreed to ensure we have a
secure Northern Border, and to finally end the deadly scourge of drugs like
Fentanyl that have been pouring into our Country, killing hundreds of thousands
of Americans, while destroying their families and communities all across our
Country,” Trump said on Truth Social
after his call with Trudeau.
More, subscription required.
Wall Street Journal knifes Trump over 'dumbest
trade war in history'
By JAMES
CIRRONE FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
Published: 15:08, 2
February 2025 | Updated: 22:24, 2 February 2025
President Donald
Trump's sweeping retaliatory tariffs against America's top three
trading partners were called the start of the 'dumbest trade war in history,'
by the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.
The Journal, known for its conservative
slant and in-depth reporting on the economy, said Trump's levies on Mexico, Canada and China make
'no sense.'
Trump said a 25 percent tariff
on Canadian and Mexican imports as well as an additional 10 percent tax on
Chinese goods would go into effect on Tuesday. Together, these three countries
made up about 40 percent of US imports last year.
Two days after the damning piece, Trump
showed he was rocked by the criticism and hit back, calling the newspaper
'always wrong' and part of the 'Tariff Lobby.'
'The “Tariff Lobby,” headed by the
Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify
Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the
decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME,
AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA,' Trump
wrote Sunday morning on Truth Social.
His stated rationale has long been to
punish these countries for not doing enough to stop fentanyl and other deadly
opioids from coming into the US. He also wants to pressure Canada and Mexico
into reducing illegal immigration.
More
Wall
Street Journal knifes Trump over 'dumbest trade war in history' | Daily Mail
Online
Some migrants arrested in Trump's immigration
crackdown have been released back into the U.S.
Space constraints and court orders have
led ICE to release migrants on monitoring programs after they’re arrested.
Feb. 3, 2025, 12:00 PM GMT
The Trump administration aggressively
publicized the arrests of more than 8,000 immigrants by federal agents since
Inauguration Day, with the promise that those detained would be part of a historic mass deportation. But NBC News has learned that
some have already been released back into the United States on a monitoring
program, according to five sources familiar with the operations.
Since he took office, President Donald
Trump and his allies have promoted immigration operations in cities like Chicago and New York, where agents across federal agencies were called in to increase the number of arrests.
But arresting more people inside the
United States on allegations of immigration violations means they need to be
held somewhere. And significant space constraints in Immigration and Customs Enforcement
detention facilities — and federal court orders forbidding indefinite
detention — have forced the agency to release some of those arrested in the
roundups rather than hold them until deportation.
ICE posts arrest figures daily on X, but
it does not disclose how many of those arrested are released, remain in
detention or have been deported.
In a statement to NBC News, an ICE
spokesperson acknowledged federal court cases limit ICE from detaining people
indefinitely if their countries refuse to take them back, which can lead ICE to
release them.
More
Some people caught in Trump
immigration crackdown released in U.S.
In other news, the EU warns. In what is likely to fast become an international feature, the US national anthem gets booed, jeered and whistled at. Hopefully, only as bad as relations get.
Germany's Economy Minister Habeck warns US against
trade war
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck
warned the United States on Sunday against engaging in a trade war, calling it
"a very bad alternative," and said Europe would retaliate.
"As Europeans, we are prepared for
counter-tariffs," the Green Party politician said at an event hosted by
the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger newspaper.
"The Americans need to know: this is
a very bad alternative."
Habeck pointed out that tariffs drive up
inflation – for both consumers and companies in the US, too. This will be made
clear to the Americans, he said.
"But if that doesn't work, then we
can't let ourselves be pushed around," said Habeck, who is also the vice
chancellor.
On Saturday, US President Donald Trump
announced tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. Those countries
promptly announced that they would impose counter-tariffs on US imports.
Germany's Economy
Minister Habeck warns US against trade war
Germany's Scholz announces countermeasures in the
event of US tariffs
3 February 2025
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday
announced that there would be European countermeasures should the US impose
additional tariffs on goods exported from the European Union.
"As a strong economic area, we can
organize things ourselves and can also react with customs policies,"
Scholz said as he arrived at an EU summit in Brussels.
"We must and will do this, but the
perspective and goal should be that we proceed in such a way that it leads to
cooperation," he added.
"It is clear that the precondition
for understanding is that you know your own strength. Europe can act."
US President Donald Trump announced
punitive tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico and threatened the
European Union with the same due to the trade surplus EU countries such as
Germany have with the US.
Scholz emphasised that both sides would
benefit from the exchange of goods and services.
"If customs policy now makes this
difficult, it would be bad for the US and bad for Europe."
Germany's Scholz announces countermeasures in the event of US tariffs
Fans at Raptors game continue trend of booing US national anthem at pro sporting events in Canada
2 February 2025
Fans at a Toronto Raptors game
continued an emerging trend Sunday of booing the American national anthem at
pro sporting events in Canada.
Fans of the NBA's lone Canadian franchise
booed the anthem after similar reactions broke out Saturday night at NHL games
in Ottawa, Ontario, and Calgary, Alberta; hours after U.S. President Donald Trump made his
threat of import tariffs on America's northern neighbor a reality.
After initially cheering for the
15-year-old female singer, fans booed throughout “The Star-Spangled Banner”
performance. At the end, mixed boos and cheers could be heard before the crowd
erupted in applause for the Canadian anthem, “O Canada.”
Trump declared an economic emergency in
order to place taxes of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on
imports from China. Energy imported from Canada, including oil, natural gas and
electricity, would be taxed at a 10% rate.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and
Mexico’s president ordered retaliatory tariffs on goods from America in
response.
U.S. national anthem boos in Canada are
rare, but not unheard of especially when tied to world events. In the early
2000s, fans at games in Canada booed to show their disapproval of the U.S.-led
war against Iraq.
The NHL's Canucks will host the Detroit
Red Wings Saturday night in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Fans at Raptors
game continue trend of booing US national anthem at pro sporting events in
Canada
“Lies,
my dear President, can easily be recognized. There are two kind of them: those
with short legs, and those with long noses. Your kind have long noses.”
Prime.
Minister Trudeau, with apologies to Carlo Collodi, and Pinocchio.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Euro
zone inflation rises to hotter-than-expected 2.5% in January on energy price
hike
Published
Mon, Feb 3 20255:04 AM EST
The
euro zone inflation accelerated to a hotter-than-expected 2.5% in January on an
annual basis as energy costs jumped, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat
showed Monday.
Economists
polled by Reuters had expected the January inflation print to come in at 2.4%,
unchanged from December.
So-called
core inflation, which strips out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, came
in at 2.7% in January and has remained unchanged since September. The closely
watched services inflation print meanwhile inched lower to 3.9% in January from
4% in December.
Energy
costs however jumped, rising 1.8% from a year earlier. This was up sharply from
December’s 0.1% increase.
Both
energy prices and core inflation came in higher than anticipated, while the dip
in services inflation was smaller than hoped for, Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy
chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note on Monday.
“Services
inflation has been stuck around 4% for over a year,” he pointed out, noting
that it was difficult to predict when it would ease.
Headline
inflation in the euro zone hit a low of 1.7% in September, but has since
re-accelerated as base effects from lower energy prices have faded. The European Central
Bank last
week said disinflation “is well on track.”
“Inflation
has continued to develop broadly in line with the staff projections and is set
to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of
this year,” the bank added. “Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that
inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.”
The
ECB on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the key deposit
facility rate to 2.75%. Further rate reductions are expected from the ECB
throughout the year.
Capital
Economics’ Allen-Reynolds said that the latest inflation data “won’t change ECB
policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates.”
“The
fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to
loosen policy in small steps,” he said.
More
Euro zone
inflation, January 2025
Why
A Recession Is Possible—And How We Should Brace For Impact
Jan
31, 2025,09:00am EST
Paul
Daneshrad is CEO of StarPoint
Properties,
a real estate & investment firm, and author of the Amazon bestseller 'Money
and Morons'.
The
Covid-19 pandemic aside, we have not had a major economic recession since 2008
in the United States.
But
from my observations, a recession is likely on the horizon—and we also run the
risk of a debt crisis in the future. Whether you’re a business owner or an
employee, you need to brace for impact.
Where
The United States Stands Economically
Historically,
the United States economy has moved through predictable cycles of expansion and
contraction, having “experienced
34 recessions since 1857.” From the conclusion of World War II onward, the
United States has had 12 recessions, which is an “average
of one every 6.5 years.”
Some
financial experts, as noted in a U.S.
News & World Report article, “anticipate a soft landing for
the U.S. economy” in 2025. But even if the country manages to avoid a recession
this year, its current economic state indicates the possibility of a recession
in the next few years.
For
years, the government stimulus and money printing have fueled long-term
economic growth in the U.S. But this is unsustainable. Our debt-to-GDP ratio,
for one, has reached staggering heights. According to data
from the U.S. government, it “surpassed 100% in 2013 when both debt and GDP
were approximately 16.7 trillion.” In 2024, it climbed to 123%. In 2024, our
gross national debt increased
beyond $34 trillion.
In FY 2024, we had a deficit
of $1.83 trillion.
When
the debt-to-GDP ratio is high, the federal government has to allocate more
revenue to interest payments. As interest rates rise, these payments increase,
which can force the government to borrow additional funds just to cover
existing debt. This increased borrowing may lead to investors demanding higher
yields on government bonds due to perceived risk, further increasing the
government’s borrowing costs. And when government bond rates increase, private
sector lending rates usually follow suit. As borrowing becomes more expensive
and consumers reduce spending, it could catapult the country into a recession.
Depending on the severity of the debt crisis, a recession could spiral into a
depression.
More
Why A Recession Is
Possible—And How We Should Brace For Impact
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
AstraZeneca ditches
£450m UK vaccine plant in fresh blow to Labour's growth mission
31 January 2025, 16:33
AstraZeneca has axed plans to invest £450 million
in a vaccine manufacturing plant in Merseyside in a fresh blow to Labour’s
mission for growth.
The pharmaceutical company, best known for
developing the Covid-19 vaccine, said the decision was made after Labour failed
to match the previous government’s offer of support.
It marks another blow to Rachel Reeves, who has
seen the economy flatline since her Budget promised to bring growth back to
Britain.
The decision reverses an announcement made by
then-chancellor Jeremy Hunt at last year's March budget that would have seen
the pharmaceutical company expand its existing facility in Speke.
Confirming the reversal on Friday, a spokesperson
for AstraZeneca said: "Following discussions with the current Government,
we are no longer pursuing our planned investment in Speke.
"Several factors have influenced this decision
including the timing and reduction of the final offer compared to the previous
government's proposal."
The facility already in Speke will continue to
operate as usual and no jobs are at risk.
The Treasury is yet to comment on the decision.
It comes just days after Chancellor Rachel Reeves
told LBC that “the sun is out” for British business.
More
AstraZeneca
ditches £450m UK vaccine plant in fresh blow to Labour's growth mission - LBC
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Chinese
algorithm claimed to boost Nvidia GPU performance by up to 800X for advanced
science applications
3 February 2025
Researchers from Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, a
collaboration between Lomonosov Moscow State University and the Beijing
Institute of Technology, have reportedly developed
a new computational algorithm that can significantly enhance the efficiency of
peridynamics (PD), a non-local theory used to model fractures and material
damage. The new method increases performance by up to 800 times, dramatically
improving the speed of large-scale material simulations.
Peridynamics is widely used
to predict material failure in aerospace, civil engineering, and military
applications. However, traditional PD simulations require significant
computational resources, making large-scale studies slow and impractical.
Associate Professor Yang Yang and her team tackled this problem by leveraging
Nvidia's CUDA technology to optimize algorithm design and memory management.
Their PD-General framework
achieved up to 800x speed gains on an Nvidia RTX 4070 compared to traditional serial programs and
100x faster performance than OpenMP-based parallel programs. In large-scale
simulations with millions of particles, it completed 4,000 iterative steps in
five minutes. For high-scale 2D uniaxial tensile problems, it processed 69.85
million iterations in under two minutes using single precision.
The enhanced computational
efficiency means researchers can now conduct simulations on consumer-grade GPUs
instead of relying on costly, high-performance computing clusters. This has
broad implications for industries that require detailed material analysis,
including:
·
Aerospace and Defense:
Improved modeling of material stress and failure in aircraft structures.
·
Engineering and
Manufacturing: More efficient testing of materials for construction and
industrial applications.
·
Military Research: Faster
development of impact-resistant materials for defense systems.
The ability to achieve
high-performance simulations on widely available GPUs also reduces reliance on
restricted foreign technology. Given ongoing trade restrictions and sanctions,
this breakthrough allows China and Russia to potentially advance research
without depending on high-end computing hardware from Western countries.
This development also marks a
significant step in computational mechanics, enabling faster and more
accessible simulations for material science, engineering, and defense
applications. The study was notably published in the Chinese Journal of
Computational Mechanics on January 8, 2025, and the research team believes that
this optimization could extend beyond peridynamics, improving GPU performance
for other scientific computations.
Electrons
Frozen Yet Free: A Quantum Breakthrough in Graphene
By Shahrzad
Abbasi, University of British Columbia February
2, 2025
By
twisting layers of graphene, researchers discovered a unique electronic
crystal where electrons freeze in place yet allow current to flow along the
edges without resistance.
Unveiling
a New Quantum State in Graphene
Researchers
from the University of
British Columbia, the University of
Washington, and Johns Hopkins
University have discovered a new class of quantum states in specially
engineered graphene. Their study, published in Nature, reveals the
existence of topological electronic crystals in a unique material called
twisted bilayer–trilayer graphene. This system is created by stacking
ultra-thin graphene layers with a precise rotational twist, fundamentally
altering their electronic behavior.
“The
starting point for this work is two flakes of graphene, which are made up of
carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb structure. The way electrons hop between
the carbon atoms determines the electrical properties of the graphene, which
ends up being superficially similar to more common conductors like copper,”
said Prof. Joshua Folk, a member of UBC’s Physics and Astronomy Department and
the Blusson Quantum Matter Institute (UBC Blusson QMI).
Moiré
Patterns and the Transformation of Electron Motion
“The
next step is to stack the two flakes together with a tiny twist between them.
This generates a geometric interference effect known as a moiré pattern: some
regions of the stack have carbon atoms from the two flakes directly on top of each
other, while other regions have the atoms offset,” Folks said.
“When
electrons hop through this moiré pattern in the twisted stack, the electronic
properties are totally changed. For example, the electrons slow way down, and
sometimes they develop a twist in their motion, like the vortex in the water at
the drain of a bathtub as it is draining out.”
A
Surprising Discovery in the Lab
The
breakthrough discovery reported in this study was observed by an undergraduate
student, Ruiheng Su, from UBC, studying a twisted graphene sample prepared by
Dr. Dacen Waters, a postdoctoral researcher in the lab of Prof. Matthew
Yankowitz at the University of Washington. While working on the experiment in
Folk’s lab, Ruiheng discovered a unique configuration for the device where the
electrons in the graphene froze into a perfectly ordered array, locked in place
yet twirling in unison like ballet dancers gracefully performing stationary
pirouettes. This synchronized rotation gives rise to a remarkable phenomenon
where electric current flows effortlessly along the edges of the sample while
the interior remains insulating because the electrons are immobilized.
More
Electrons Frozen
Yet Free: A Quantum Breakthrough in Graphene
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
“Where
are the gold pieces now?' Chairman Powell asked.
'I lost them,' answered President Trump, but he told a lie, for he had them in
his pocket.
As he spoke, his nose, long though it was, became at least two inches longer.”
With
apologies to Carlo Collodi, and Pinocchio.
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