Tuesday, 4 February 2025

Trump Fades, Great Trade War Paused. China Retaliates. The EU Warns.

Baltic Dry Index. 738 +03            Brent Crude 75.06

Spot Gold 2815               US 2 Year Yield 4.26 +0.04  

US Federal Debt. 36.435 trillion!

“Would it be possible to find a more ungrateful President, or one with less heart than I have!”

DJT, with apologies to Carlo Collodi, and Pinocchio.

In what was supposed to be day one of the Great USA trade war on Canada and Mexico, President Trump delayed the trade war by 30 days, but the extra 10 percent tariffs went into effect against China.

China immediately retaliated with 15 percent tariffs on some US exports to China.

The EU, threatened yesterday with tariffs by President Trump, closed ranks and threatened immediate retaliation if President Trump levies tariffs on the EU.

In the US and global stock casinos, relief and great uncertainty as to how to trade the Great Trump Tariff War delayed.

Asia-Pacific markets jump as Trump tariff pause boosts investor sentiment

Updated Tue, Feb 4 2025 11:54 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday after Donald Trump paused tariffs on Mexico for a month, while Canada also said the U.S. president had put on hold proposed tariffs on its exports.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was trading 1.15% higher, while the broader Topix index advanced 1.06%.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.52% while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 3.09%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was trading up 2%.

Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.2%.

Indian stocks started the day higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 up 0.62% while the BSE Sensex index rose 0.58%.

Chinese markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Overnight in the U.S., stocks traded down following Trump’s decision to pause tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered from steep losses during. The 30-stock index was down 122.75 points, or 0.28%, to close at 44,421.91. At its lows of the day, the Dow was down 665.6 points, or 1.5%.

The S&P 500 slid 0.76% to 5,994.57, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped 1.2% to 19,391.96.

Asia markets live updates: Asia markets set to climb

China to levy tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports starting Feb. 10

Published Tue, Feb 4 2025 12:14 AM EST

China’s finance ministry said Tuesday it will impose 15% tariffs on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% duties on crude oil, farm equipment and certain cars, starting Feb. 10.

The tariffs announcement comes as the additional 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports came into effect on Tuesday stateside.

China to levy tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports starting Feb. 10

CNBC Daily Open: Trump pauses tariffs but markets are still wary

Published Mon, Feb 3 202 58:28 PM EST

The tariffs are not happening immediately — at least for Mexico and Canada. In what appeared to be another successful deal negotiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, the two countries agreed to ramp up their border protection, leading to a pause in tariffs.

Markets heaved a sigh of relief and made sharp turnarounds on the news. But persistent jitters about long-term uncertainty kept stocks from having a positive day. Trump’s comments on Sunday that he agreed with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged could have also watered down investors’ expectations (however far-fetched) for lower rates.

Alphabet’s earnings, releasing later today, might attract the most attention, but in the current Trump-dominated context, it’d be interesting to see how Toyota Motor and Ford, which report earnings Wednesday, talk about — or around — how tariffs will affect their businesses.

What you need to know today

Trump tariffs on hold
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday agreed to pause tariffs on Canada for at least 30 days, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a post on X. Trudeau’s announcement came hours after Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum disclosed on X that Trump was holding off tariffs on its exports for one month. The delay comes after the two countries agreed to take steps toward preventing the trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S.

Markets stage comeback but still in the red
All major U.S. indexes ended Monday in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.28%, paring losses of 1.5% earlier in the day, after news of the tariff pause broke. The S&P 500 slid 0.76% and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 1.2%.  Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 index dropped 0.87%. Auto stocks such as VolkswagenPorsche and BMW were among the biggest losers, though they recovered from steeper falls earlier.

U.S. sovereign wealth fund
Trump signed on Monday an executive order that outlines plans for a U.S. government-run sovereign wealth fund. While it aims to develop infrastructure such as airports and highways, it could also help the U.S. extend its influence in areas such as Panama and Greenland and even be used to buy TikTok.

‘Right thing to do’ — steady rates
In an apparent change of mind, Trump said the U.S. Federal Reserve holding interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5% at its January meeting “was the right thing to do.” The statement stood in stark contrast to one Trump delivered when speaking remotely to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In a Jan. 23 appearance, Trump said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

More

CNBC Daily Open: Trump pauses tariffs but markets are still wary

Trump to Pause Tariffs for 30 Days After Talking With Trudeau, Canada Will Appoint ‘Fentanyl Czar’

The development came hours after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reached a similar deal with Trump

3 February 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to pause tariffs on Canada for 30 days after talking with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the afternoon of Feb. 3.

The agreement between the two leaders entails Canada appointing a “fentanyl czar” and designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations, as well as committing C$200 million (US$139 million) for intelligence operations to combat fentanyl.

“Canada has agreed to ensure we have a secure Northern Border, and to finally end the deadly scourge of drugs like Fentanyl that have been pouring into our Country, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans, while destroying their families and communities all across our Country,” Trump said on Truth Social after his call with Trudeau.

More, subscription required.

Trump to Pause Tariffs for 30 Days After Talking With Trudeau, Canada Will Appoint ‘Fentanyl Czar’ | The Epoch Times

Wall Street Journal knifes Trump over 'dumbest trade war in history'

By JAMES CIRRONE FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Published: 15:08, 2 February 2025 | Updated: 22:24, 2 February 2025

President Donald Trump's sweeping retaliatory tariffs against America's top three trading partners were called the start of the 'dumbest trade war in history,' by the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board.

The Journal, known for its conservative slant and in-depth reporting on the economy, said Trump's levies on MexicoCanada and China make 'no sense.'

Trump said a 25 percent tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports as well as an additional 10 percent tax on Chinese goods would go into effect on Tuesday. Together, these three countries made up about 40 percent of US imports last year.

Two days after the damning piece, Trump showed he was rocked by the criticism and hit back, calling the newspaper 'always wrong' and part of the 'Tariff Lobby.'

'The “Tariff Lobby,” headed by the Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME, AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA,' Trump wrote Sunday morning on Truth Social.

His stated rationale has long been to punish these countries for not doing enough to stop fentanyl and other deadly opioids from coming into the US. He also wants to pressure Canada and Mexico into reducing illegal immigration.

More

Wall Street Journal knifes Trump over 'dumbest trade war in history' | Daily Mail Online

Some migrants arrested in Trump's immigration crackdown have been released back into the U.S.

Space constraints and court orders have led ICE to release migrants on monitoring programs after they’re arrested.

Feb. 3, 2025, 12:00 PM GMT

The Trump administration aggressively publicized the arrests of more than 8,000 immigrants by federal agents since Inauguration Day, with the promise that those detained would be part of a historic mass deportation. But NBC News has learned that some have already been released back into the United States on a monitoring program, according to five sources familiar with the operations.

Since he took office, President Donald Trump and his allies have promoted immigration operations in cities like Chicago and New York, where agents across federal agencies were called in to increase the number of arrests

But arresting more people inside the United States on allegations of immigration violations means they need to be held somewhere. And significant space constraints in Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facilities — and federal court orders forbidding indefinite detention — have forced the agency to release some of those arrested in the roundups rather than hold them until deportation. 

ICE posts arrest figures daily on X, but it does not disclose how many of those arrested are released, remain in detention or have been deported. 

In a statement to NBC News, an ICE spokesperson acknowledged federal court cases limit ICE from detaining people indefinitely if their countries refuse to take them back, which can lead ICE to release them. 

More

Some people caught in Trump immigration crackdown released in U.S.

In other news, the EU warns. In what is likely to fast become an international feature, the US national anthem gets booed, jeered and whistled at. Hopefully, only as bad as relations get.

Germany's Economy Minister Habeck warns US against trade war

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned the United States on Sunday against engaging in a trade war, calling it "a very bad alternative," and said Europe would retaliate.

"As Europeans, we are prepared for counter-tariffs," the Green Party politician said at an event hosted by the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger newspaper.

"The Americans need to know: this is a very bad alternative."

Habeck pointed out that tariffs drive up inflation – for both consumers and companies in the US, too. This will be made clear to the Americans, he said.

"But if that doesn't work, then we can't let ourselves be pushed around," said Habeck, who is also the vice chancellor.

On Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. Those countries promptly announced that they would impose counter-tariffs on US imports.

Germany's Economy Minister Habeck warns US against trade war

Germany's Scholz announces countermeasures in the event of US tariffs

3 February 2025

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday announced that there would be European countermeasures should the US impose additional tariffs on goods exported from the European Union.

"As a strong economic area, we can organize things ourselves and can also react with customs policies," Scholz said as he arrived at an EU summit in Brussels.

"We must and will do this, but the perspective and goal should be that we proceed in such a way that it leads to cooperation," he added.

"It is clear that the precondition for understanding is that you know your own strength. Europe can act."

US President Donald Trump announced punitive tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico and threatened the European Union with the same due to the trade surplus EU countries such as Germany have with the US.

Scholz emphasised that both sides would benefit from the exchange of goods and services.

"If customs policy now makes this difficult, it would be bad for the US and bad for Europe."

Germany's Scholz announces countermeasures in the event of US tariffs

Fans at Raptors game continue trend of booing US national anthem at pro sporting events in Canada

2 February 2025

Fans at a Toronto Raptors game continued an emerging trend Sunday of booing the American national anthem at pro sporting events in Canada.

Fans of the NBA's lone Canadian franchise booed the anthem after similar reactions broke out Saturday night at NHL games in Ottawa, Ontario, and Calgary, Alberta; hours after U.S. President Donald Trump made his threat of import tariffs on America's northern neighbor a reality.

After initially cheering for the 15-year-old female singer, fans booed throughout “The Star-Spangled Banner” performance. At the end, mixed boos and cheers could be heard before the crowd erupted in applause for the Canadian anthem, “O Canada.”

Trump declared an economic emergency in order to place taxes of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on imports from China. Energy imported from Canada, including oil, natural gas and electricity, would be taxed at a 10% rate.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexico’s president ordered retaliatory tariffs on goods from America in response.

U.S. national anthem boos in Canada are rare, but not unheard of especially when tied to world events. In the early 2000s, fans at games in Canada booed to show their disapproval of the U.S.-led war against Iraq.

The NHL's Canucks will host the Detroit Red Wings Saturday night in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Fans at Raptors game continue trend of booing US national anthem at pro sporting events in Canada

“Lies, my dear President, can easily be recognized. There are two kind of them: those with short legs, and those with long noses. Your kind have long noses.”

Prime. Minister Trudeau, with apologies to Carlo Collodi, and Pinocchio.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Euro zone inflation rises to hotter-than-expected 2.5% in January on energy price hike

Published Mon, Feb 3 20255:04 AM EST

The euro zone inflation accelerated to a hotter-than-expected 2.5% in January on an annual basis as energy costs jumped, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Monday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the January inflation print to come in at 2.4%, unchanged from December.

So-called core inflation, which strips out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, came in at 2.7% in January and has remained unchanged since September. The closely watched services inflation print meanwhile inched lower to 3.9% in January from 4% in December.

Energy costs however jumped, rising 1.8% from a year earlier. This was up sharply from December’s 0.1% increase.

Both energy prices and core inflation came in higher than anticipated, while the dip in services inflation was smaller than hoped for, Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief euro zone economist at Capital Economics said in a note on Monday.

“Services inflation has been stuck around 4% for over a year,” he pointed out, noting that it was difficult to predict when it would ease.

Headline inflation in the euro zone hit a low of 1.7% in September, but has since re-accelerated as base effects from lower energy prices have faded. The European Central Bank last week said disinflation “is well on track.”

“Inflation has continued to develop broadly in line with the staff projections and is set to return to the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target in the course of this year,” the bank added. “Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the target on a sustained basis.”

The ECB on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the key deposit facility rate to 2.75%. Further rate reductions are expected from the ECB throughout the year.

Capital Economics’ Allen-Reynolds said that the latest inflation data “won’t change ECB policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates.”

“The fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to loosen policy in small steps,” he said.

More

Euro zone inflation, January 2025

Why A Recession Is Possible—And How We Should Brace For Impact

Jan 31, 2025,09:00am EST

Paul Daneshrad is CEO of StarPoint Properties, a real estate & investment firm, and author of the Amazon bestseller 'Money and Morons'.

The Covid-19 pandemic aside, we have not had a major economic recession since 2008 in the United States.

But from my observations, a recession is likely on the horizon—and we also run the risk of a debt crisis in the future. Whether you’re a business owner or an employee, you need to brace for impact.

Where The United States Stands Economically

Historically, the United States economy has moved through predictable cycles of expansion and contraction, having “experienced 34 recessions since 1857.” From the conclusion of World War II onward, the United States has had 12 recessions, which is an “average of one every 6.5 years.

Some financial experts, as noted in a U.S. News & World Report article, “anticipate a soft landing for the U.S. economy” in 2025. But even if the country manages to avoid a recession this year, its current economic state indicates the possibility of a recession in the next few years.

For years, the government stimulus and money printing have fueled long-term economic growth in the U.S. But this is unsustainable. Our debt-to-GDP ratio, for one, has reached staggering heights. According to data from the U.S. government, it “surpassed 100% in 2013 when both debt and GDP were approximately 16.7 trillion.” In 2024, it climbed to 123%. In 2024, our gross national debt increased beyond $34 trillion. In FY 2024, we had a deficit of $1.83 trillion.

When the debt-to-GDP ratio is high, the federal government has to allocate more revenue to interest payments. As interest rates rise, these payments increase, which can force the government to borrow additional funds just to cover existing debt. This increased borrowing may lead to investors demanding higher yields on government bonds due to perceived risk, further increasing the government’s borrowing costs. And when government bond rates increase, private sector lending rates usually follow suit. As borrowing becomes more expensive and consumers reduce spending, it could catapult the country into a recession. Depending on the severity of the debt crisis, a recession could spiral into a depression.

More

Why A Recession Is Possible—And How We Should Brace For Impact

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

AstraZeneca ditches £450m UK vaccine plant in fresh blow to Labour's growth mission

31 January 2025, 16:33

AstraZeneca has axed plans to invest £450 million in a vaccine manufacturing plant in Merseyside in a fresh blow to Labour’s mission for growth.

The pharmaceutical company, best known for developing the Covid-19 vaccine, said the decision was made after Labour failed to match the previous government’s offer of support.

It marks another blow to Rachel Reeves, who has seen the economy flatline since her Budget promised to bring growth back to Britain.

The decision reverses an announcement made by then-chancellor Jeremy Hunt at last year's March budget that would have seen the pharmaceutical company expand its existing facility in Speke.

Confirming the reversal on Friday, a spokesperson for AstraZeneca said: "Following discussions with the current Government, we are no longer pursuing our planned investment in Speke.

"Several factors have influenced this decision including the timing and reduction of the final offer compared to the previous government's proposal."

The facility already in Speke will continue to operate as usual and no jobs are at risk.

The Treasury is yet to comment on the decision.

It comes just days after Chancellor Rachel Reeves told LBC that “the sun is out” for British business.

More

AstraZeneca ditches £450m UK vaccine plant in fresh blow to Labour's growth mission - LBC

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Chinese algorithm claimed to boost Nvidia GPU performance by up to 800X for advanced science applications

3 February 2025

Researchers from Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, a collaboration between Lomonosov Moscow State University and the Beijing Institute of Technology, have reportedly developed a new computational algorithm that can significantly enhance the efficiency of peridynamics (PD), a non-local theory used to model fractures and material damage. The new method increases performance by up to 800 times, dramatically improving the speed of large-scale material simulations.

Peridynamics is widely used to predict material failure in aerospace, civil engineering, and military applications. However, traditional PD simulations require significant computational resources, making large-scale studies slow and impractical. Associate Professor Yang Yang and her team tackled this problem by leveraging Nvidia's CUDA technology to optimize algorithm design and memory management.

Their PD-General framework achieved up to 800x speed gains on an Nvidia RTX 4070 compared to traditional serial programs and 100x faster performance than OpenMP-based parallel programs. In large-scale simulations with millions of particles, it completed 4,000 iterative steps in five minutes. For high-scale 2D uniaxial tensile problems, it processed 69.85 million iterations in under two minutes using single precision.

The enhanced computational efficiency means researchers can now conduct simulations on consumer-grade GPUs instead of relying on costly, high-performance computing clusters. This has broad implications for industries that require detailed material analysis, including:

·         Aerospace and Defense: Improved modeling of material stress and failure in aircraft structures.

·         Engineering and Manufacturing: More efficient testing of materials for construction and industrial applications.

·         Military Research: Faster development of impact-resistant materials for defense systems.

The ability to achieve high-performance simulations on widely available GPUs also reduces reliance on restricted foreign technology. Given ongoing trade restrictions and sanctions, this breakthrough allows China and Russia to potentially advance research without depending on high-end computing hardware from Western countries.

This development also marks a significant step in computational mechanics, enabling faster and more accessible simulations for material science, engineering, and defense applications. The study was notably published in the Chinese Journal of Computational Mechanics on January 8, 2025, and the research team believes that this optimization could extend beyond peridynamics, improving GPU performance for other scientific computations.

Chinese algorithm claimed to boost Nvidia GPU performance by up to 800X for advanced science applications

Electrons Frozen Yet Free: A Quantum Breakthrough in Graphene

By Shahrzad Abbasi, University of British Columbia  February 2, 2025

By twisting layers of graphene, researchers discovered a unique electronic crystal where electrons freeze in place yet allow current to flow along the edges without resistance.

Unveiling a New Quantum State in Graphene

Researchers from the University of British Columbia, the University of Washington, and Johns Hopkins University have discovered a new class of quantum states in specially engineered graphene. Their study, published in Nature, reveals the existence of topological electronic crystals in a unique material called twisted bilayer–trilayer graphene. This system is created by stacking ultra-thin graphene layers with a precise rotational twist, fundamentally altering their electronic behavior.

“The starting point for this work is two flakes of graphene, which are made up of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb structure. The way electrons hop between the carbon atoms determines the electrical properties of the graphene, which ends up being superficially similar to more common conductors like copper,” said Prof. Joshua Folk, a member of UBC’s Physics and Astronomy Department and the Blusson Quantum Matter Institute (UBC Blusson QMI).

Moiré Patterns and the Transformation of Electron Motion

“The next step is to stack the two flakes together with a tiny twist between them. This generates a geometric interference effect known as a moiré pattern: some regions of the stack have carbon atoms from the two flakes directly on top of each other, while other regions have the atoms offset,” Folks said.

“When electrons hop through this moiré pattern in the twisted stack, the electronic properties are totally changed. For example, the electrons slow way down, and sometimes they develop a twist in their motion, like the vortex in the water at the drain of a bathtub as it is draining out.”

A Surprising Discovery in the Lab

The breakthrough discovery reported in this study was observed by an undergraduate student, Ruiheng Su, from UBC, studying a twisted graphene sample prepared by Dr. Dacen Waters, a postdoctoral researcher in the lab of Prof. Matthew Yankowitz at the University of Washington. While working on the experiment in Folk’s lab, Ruiheng discovered a unique configuration for the device where the electrons in the graphene froze into a perfectly ordered array, locked in place yet twirling in unison like ballet dancers gracefully performing stationary pirouettes. This synchronized rotation gives rise to a remarkable phenomenon where electric current flows effortlessly along the edges of the sample while the interior remains insulating because the electrons are immobilized.

More

Electrons Frozen Yet Free: A Quantum Breakthrough in Graphene

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

“Where are the gold pieces now?' Chairman Powell asked.
'I lost them,' answered President Trump, but he told a lie, for he had them in his pocket.
As he spoke, his nose, long though it was, became at least two inches longer.”

With apologies to Carlo Collodi, and Pinocchio.


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