Tuesday, 11 February 2025

Tariffs, A Return to The 1930s. Does History Repeat?

Baltic Dry Index. 809 -06            Brent Crude 76.24

Spot Gold 2928               US 2 Year Yield 4.28 -0.01  

US Federal Debt. 36.464 trillion!

The number one problem in today's generation and economy is the lack of financial literacy.

Alan Greenspan.

If history repeats, get ready for the re-run of the 1930s, but with massive global and consumer debts.

While we are only one week in to our new trade war re-run, there’s little reason to expect a different outcome to the 1930s outcome, although in our debt fuelled, AI roaring 20s, algo computer driven modern world, achieving the next global depression will likely happen faster.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors assess Trump tariffs

Updated Tue, Feb 11 2025 11:06 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday as investors assessed U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign.

Trump on Monday signed an order imposing 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum into the U.S.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded around the flatline. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.72%, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.35%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.56%, while the mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.36%.

Japan markets were closed for a holiday.

Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index slipped 0.44% after it hit an all-time intraday high of 3,910.12 on Monday.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 was down 0.32%, while the BSE Sensex index traded around the flatline.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages closed higher as major tech names outperformed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 167.01 points, or 0.38%, led by a 4.8% gain in McDonald’s. The 30-stock index closed at 44,470.41. The S&P 500 gained 0.67% to end at 6,066.44, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.98% to 19,714.27.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is slated speak before Congress later in the day.

Asia markets live updates: Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum imports

McDonald’s revenue disappoints as U.S. customers spend less at its restaurants

Published Mon, Feb 10 2025 12:01 AM EST

McDonald’s on Monday reported disappointing quarterly revenue, dragged down by weaker-than-expected sales at its U.S. restaurants following an E. coli outbreak just weeks into the quarter.

Shares of the company fell less than 1% in premarket trading.

Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

The fast-food giant reported fourth-quarter net income of $2.02 billion, or $2.80 per share, down from $2.04 billion, or $2.80 per share, a year earlier.

Excluding gains tied to the sale of its South Korean business, transaction costs for buying its Israeli franchise and other items, McDonald’s earned $2.83 per share.

Net sales of $6.39 billion were roughly flat compared with the year-ago period.

The company’s overall same-store sales growth of 0.4% outperformed Wall Street’s expectations of same-store sales declines of 1%, according to StreetAccount estimates.

But McDonald’s U.S. business reported a steeper-than-expected drop in its same-store sales. Same-store sales at the company’s domestic restaurants fell 1.4% in the quarter; Wall Street was projecting same-store sales declines of 0.6%.

McDonald’s said traffic was slightly positive, but customers spent less than usual during the quarter. Over the summer, the chain rolled out a $5 combo meal to bring back price-conscious diners and reverse sluggish sales. The strategy worked, helping McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales tick up in the third quarter. However, analysts have warned that value meals only work if customers also add menu items that aren’t discounted to their orders.

The biggest hit to McDonald’s U.S. sales came in late October, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention linked a fatal E. coli outbreak to its Quarter Pounder burgers. McDonald’s switched suppliers for its slivered onions, the ingredient fingered as the likely culprit for the outbreak. In early December, the CDC declared the outbreak officially over.

However, in the days following the news of the outbreak, traffic at McDonald’s U.S. restaurants fell steeply, particularly in the states affected.

Outside the U.S., sales were stronger. Both of McDonald’s international divisions reported same-store sales increases, bolstering the company’s overall performance.

More

McDonald's (MCD) Q4 2024 earnings

The Truth About Trump’s Steel Tariffs

His first-term levies hurt consumers and U.S. manufacturers.

By The Editorial Board  Updated Feb. 10, 2025 6:43 pm ET

President Trump gave the economy another jolt of uncertainty on Monday when he signed executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. His advisers say these tariffs are economically “strategic” rather than a bargaining chip for some other goal. Is the strategy to harm U.S. manufacturers and workers?

That’s what his first-term tariffs did, and it’s worth revisiting the damage of that blunder as he threatens to repeat it. In March 2018, Mr. Trump announced 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum under the pretext of protecting national security. Then, as now, most U.S. metal imports came from allies including Canada, Mexico, Europe, South Korea and Japan.

Mr. Trump said tariffs were needed to boost domestic steel and aluminum production. But U.S. production was already increasing amid a surge in capital investment unleashed by his deregulation and 2017 tax reform. U.S. steel capacity utilization climbed to 78.5% in March 2018 from 72.4% in December 2016.

More, subscription required.

The Truth About Trump’s Steel Tariffs - WSJ

Trump tariffs are ‘punitive,’ former U.S. ambassador to Singapore says, warns of U.S. job losses

Published Mon, Feb 10 2025 11:59 PM EST

Tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump are not simply symbolic, but are punitive and will “cost jobs” in the U.S., according to Frank Lavin, former U.S. ambassador to Singapore.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia,” Lavin said that “we’re in for a bit of bad news in the near term,” adding that the tariffs will also hurt the auto industry in the U.S.

“It will obligate other countries to respond. So we’re going to see deterioration, and I think worst of all, from Mr. Trump’s point of view, is we’re going to see a little bit of inflationary pressure as well,” Lavin said.

Trump on Monday signed executive orders implementing 25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum into the U.S.

When asked if Trump could be using tariffs and the threat of tariffs as a bargaining chip, Lavin explained that it could be seen as such, if tariffs were targeted at Canada or Mexico to elicit a response on issues like border security.

“But when you’re talking about a global tariff on steel and aluminum and a tariff on China, you’re not going to see a quick response and a quick resolution of these matters,” he said.

Furthermore, with Trump vowing a “reciprocal” stance on tariffs, Lavin said that the world will see a deterioration in trade, and this will make it difficult for other countries to respond. “So he’s gone beyond simply signaling or simply establishing tariffs as a bargaining chip.”

More

Trump tariffs are 'punitive,' former U.S. ambassador to Singapore says, warns of U.S. job losses.

What the ‘mother of all trade wars’ can teach us about U.S. tariffs, according to economists

Published Wed, Feb 5 2025 9:53 AM EST Updated Wed, Feb 5 2025 11:34 AM EST

A trade war is brewing — and, if history is any guide, the U.S. economy may not be too happy about it.

President Donald Trump on Saturday levied a 10% additional tariff on all imports from China starting Tuesday. In response, China retaliated with its own tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports, starting Feb. 10.

Experts believe these are just the initial salvos of a broader trade war between the two nations. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. is on the precipice of a trade spat with Canada and Mexico. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on the European Union — and, if that happens, the nations have vowed retribution.

“I will never support the idea of fighting allies,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Monday. “But of course, if the U.S. puts tough terms on Europe, we need a collective and robust response.

The current animosity bears many similarities to an earlier episode in U.S. history — the Tariff Act of 1930 — which triggered an all-out trade war and exacerbated the Great Depression, according to economic historians. 

The law, known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, was “one of the most controversial tariff acts ever enacted by Congress,” Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and past president of the Economic History Association, wrote in 2020.

It was also the last instance of a trade war involving the U.S., prior to Trump’s first term, said Kris James Mitchener, an economics professor at Santa Clara University who studies economic history and political economy.

Smoot-Hawley sparked “the mother of all trade wars,” Mitchener said.

---- Among Smoot-Hawley’s chief aims was to safeguard U.S. farmers, who had expanded agricultural production during WWI but suffered after the war as European production came back online and prices collapsed, Mitchener said.

However, Congress expanded the scope of the tariffs considerably, extending beyond agriculture to include all sectors of the economy. The law got its name from its chief Republican supporters in Congress: Rep. Willis Hawley of Oregon, chair of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, and Sen. Reed Smoot of Utah, who chaired the Senate Finance Committee.

Smoot-Hawley was “broad,” putting tariffs on roughly 25% of all goods imported to the U.S. — about 800 to 900 different types of goods, Mitchener said. 

President Herbert Hoover, who had run for the office on a platform of helping farmers with protective tariffs, signed the law in June 1930, ignoring a petition signed by more than 1,000 economists asking him to veto the bill.

The law raised dutiable tariffs — tariffs on goods subject to import duties — by about 6 percentage points, on average, Mitchener said.

While that may not sound like much, those duties sparked a trade war with major U.S. trading partners, which was perhaps their “most important ramification,” wrote Irwin of Dartmouth College. 

Smoot-Hawley raised the average tariff on dutiable imports to 47% from 40%, Irwin said. Depression-era price deflation ultimately helped push that average to almost 60% in 1932, he added.

Nine nations — Argentina, Australia, Canada, Cuba, France, Italy, Mexico, Spain and Switzerland — imposed retaliatory tariffs directed specifically at U.S. products, Mitchener said. 

“Canada, which was heavily dependent on the U.S. market, retaliated almost immediately and imposed tariffs significant enough to put a sizable dent into American exports,” Irwin wrote.

That “tit-for-tat response” with targeted tariffs is the hallmark of a trade war, Mitchener said.

Other nations formed trade blocs that excluded the U.S., Irwin wrote. Ultimately, 35 governments lodged official protests against Smoot-Hawley, Mitchener said. 

The result: Global trade collapsed, exacerbating the Great Depression, which was the worst economic downturn in U.S. history, economists said. U.S. exports to retaliating nations fell by about 28% to 32%, said Mitchener. Further, nations that protested Smoot-Hawley also reduced their U.S. imports by 15% to 23%.

More

How Smoot-Hawley Tariff sparked the 'mother of all trade wars'

In other news.

Egypt announces emergency Arab summit after Trump’s Gaza plan infuriates key allies

Updated 4:01 PM GMT, February 9, 2025

CAIRO (AP) — Egypt announced Sunday that it will host an emergency Arab summit on Feb. 27 to discuss “new and dangerous developments” after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed to resettle Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.

Trump’s suggestion, made at a White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, infuriated the Arab world, including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia — key allies of Washington.

Both Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and Jordanian King Abdullah II dismissed Trump’s call to resettle 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza and for the U.S. to take ownership of the enclave, but Trump claims that they would eventually accept it.

A statement from Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said it would host the Arab League summit in Cairo following talks at the highest level in Arab countries in recent days, “including the state of Palestine that asked to hold the summit in order to discuss new and dangerous developments for the Palestinian cause.”

Egypt announces emergency Arab summit after Trump's Gaza plan infuriates key allies | AP News

Trump Says Palestinians Wouldn’t Have Right to Return to Gaza

President says Palestinians would get ‘much better housing’ in neighboring countries

By Tarini Parti  Updated Feb. 10, 2025 6:16 pm ET

WASHINGTON—President Trump said Palestinians wouldn’t have the right to return to Gaza under his new plan to rebuild the territory, adding that they would get “much better housing” instead in neighboring countries.

“In other words, I’m talking about building a permanent place for them because if they have to return now, it’ll be years before you could ever—it’s not habitable,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier that was conducted before Sunday’s Super Bowl. “It would be years before it could happen.”

The president’s latest comments come after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters last week that any Palestinian relocation would be temporary. She also said taxpayers wouldn’t cover the cost of developing the territory. Trump’s aides have tried to clarify the president’s plan after he surprised even some in his own White House when he announced it.

Asked by Baier if displaced Palestinians would have the right to return to Gaza, Trump said, “No, they wouldn’t.”

Trump’s proposal to take long-term control of Gaza, which he unveiled standing next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a press conference, has already caused some discord within the Republican Party, which has been largely united since the election. Several Republican lawmakers have expressed skepticism of the effort.

Major Middle East powers have rejected Trump’s plan. Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have rejected evictions, while the Palestinian Authority and Hamas said they wouldn’t support an evacuation of Gaza. Jordan’s King Abdullah is expected to meet with Trump at the White House on Tuesday. The president plans to raise his Gaza proposal during the meeting, according to an administration official.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that he would “maybe” consider withholding aid from countries who decline to take Palestinians leaving Gaza. 

In the Fox News interview, Trump also appeared to suggest that Gaza would belong to him and compared it to a real-estate project.

more

Trump Says Palestinians Wouldn’t Have Right to Return to Gaza - WSJ

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

EU to retaliate over tariffs imposed by the US: France

Mon Feb 10, 2025 01:53 PM

The European Union will retaliate by replicating any tariffs imposed on it by the United States, the French foreign minister said on Monday, warning Washington against a trade war.

"There is no hesitation when it comes to defending our interests," Jean-Noel Barrot said in an interview with TF1 after US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that Washington will move this week to impose 25-percent tariffs on steel and aluminium products.

Asked whether France and the European Union would retaliate against the measures announced by Trump, Barrot said: "Of course. It's not a surprise. This is already what Donald Trump did in 2018" (during his first term as president).

"At that time we replicated. So we will replicate again this time," he said.

Asked what measures of retaliation would be agreed, Barrot replied that it was up to the European commission to decide what sectors would be targeted.

"No one has an interest in entering into a trade war with the European Union," he warned.

The tariffs on steel and aluminium imports were the latest in a slew of trade levies the US leader has announced that have raised fears of a global trade war.

French President Emmanuel Macron told CNN that the EU should not be a "top priority" for the United States after Trump's repeated threats to target the bloc.

"Is the European Union your first problem? No, I don't think so. Your first problem is China, so you should focus on the first problem," he said, adding that the EU must be ready to react to US actions.

All of Donald Trump's tariffs and threatened trade actions | The Daily Star

Worst jobs slump since pandemic in wake of Budget ‘gloom’

10 February 2025

New job openings have fallen at their fastest pace since the pandemic amid widespread “gloom” in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s Budget.

The volume of permanent vacancies in the UK dropped for the 15th month in a row in January and at the fastest pace since August 2020, according to KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC). Vacancies for temporary workers also fell sharply.

The Chancellor’s tax raid on employers’ National Insurance contributions was blamed for the slowdown, as was Angela Rayner’s overhaul of workers’ rights.

Businesses face a collective £25bn increase in National Insurance contributions from April. Companies will be made to pay sums equivalent to 15pc of their employees’ annual salaries, above an earnings threshold of £175 per week.

Labour is also currently consulting on plans to give workers the right to take employers to tribunal and claim sick pay from day one in a job; ban zero hours contracts; and hand greater power to unions in the workplace.

Neil Carberry, chief executive of the REC, said: “Businesses entered the year uncertain on the growth path, and that has driven a ‘wait and see’ approach to hiring.

“An autumn of fiscal gloom, difficulty navigating significant upcoming tax rises and little progress on the practicalities of a costly new approach to employment rights are all acting as brakes on progress.”

The survey adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting Labour has snuffed out momentum in the economy since coming to power. Ministers have been accused of stifling growth by talking down the economy and targeting businesses in the Budget.

The Bank of England last week halved its growth forecast for the coming year, predicting the UK will grow by just 0.75pc in 2025 rather than 1.5pc as previously forecast. Unemployment is also expected to rise to 4.75pc by the end of the year, from 4.4pc currently.

The Bank last week cut interest rates to 4.5pc in an effort to stimulate the economy and signalled more cuts were likely.

----Hiring fell across all job categories, with the sharpest drops seen in recruitment for executive and professional positions. Vacancies for administrative jobs and positions in IT and computing also fell sharply.

Increases in workers’ pay waned in January as lay-offs and the slowdown in hiring weighed on employees’ power to negotiate higher salaries. Salaries grew at the softest pace since March 2021.

More

Worst jobs slump since pandemic in wake of Budget ‘gloom’

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

No, Moderna Did Not Create Its COVID Vaccine Two Years Before the Pandemic

Alex Demas  Fri, February 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM GMT

An image that is spreading widely online claims that Moderna had created its COVID-19 vaccine two years before the pandemic began—proof that health authorities had planned the pandemic in advance. “Moderna CEO confessed to creating the Covid-19 vaccine 2 years before the virus was released to the world,” the image reads. “This means that they knew Covid was coming, that it was pre-planned, pre-meditated, and launched on the world for profit and power. God we pray for exposure and justice for Dr. Fauci, Bill Gates, and the pharmaceutical industry in Jesus’ name. Amen!”

The claim is false. While the novel technology used by Moderna in its COVID-19 vaccine was being researched and developed years before COVID-19 emerged, the COVID-19 vaccine itself was created after the outbreak was first identified in China.

When COVID-19 was first identified in China in December 2019, health officials immediately began laying the groundwork for development of an effective vaccine against it.  At the time, a decades-long effort to create a vaccine platform that leveraged messenger RNA (mRNA) to trigger the body’s immune response was just coming to fruition.

“It was an extraordinary piece of good fortune, but chance favors the prepared mind,” Dr. Chris Beyrer, epidemiologist and director of Duke University’s Global Health Institute, told The Dispatch Fact Check. And prepared vaccine researchers were.

Public health authorities and private medical companies had been exploring the application of mRNA technology to novel and existing coronaviruses long before COVID-19 emerged. Deadly outbreaks of SARS in 2002 and MERS in 2012—both respiratory illnesses caused by coronaviruses believed to originate in bats—prompted focused research into mitigation and prevention of future coronaviruses. “There had been a lot of concern about this family of bat coronaviruses for some years,” Beyrer said. Specifically, public health authorities were worried that SARS or MERS might reemerge with epidemic potential.

The prospect of using mRNA as a tool for vaccination was identified as early as the 1990s, but a breakthrough in 2005 by Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman—the pair would go on to win the 2023 Nobel Prize in Medicine for their research—demonstrated that mRNA could be delivered in a way that activated the body’s immune system and induced the production of antibodies to fight a specific disease. “Many people would credit that as the beginning of the idea that, okay, maybe we could use this as a vaccine delivery system,” Beyrer said.

More

No, Moderna Did Not Create Its COVID Vaccine Two Years Before the Pandemic

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Never seen before quantum state discovered in graphene could advance computing

Rupendra Brahambhatt  Sun, February 9, 2025 at 9:10 AM GMT

Graphene, also known as the wonder material, continues to surprise scientists. This time, it has revealed new quantum states. A team of researchers has found peculiar topological electronic crystals in twisted graphene layers.

Their study highlights a special way to arrange electrons in graphene, where they freeze into a perfectly ordered pattern. Surprisingly, while staying locked in place, all the electrons spin together like ballet dancers performing synchronized pirouettes without moving.

This unusual quantum behavior allows electric current to flow smoothly along the edges of the material while the interior remains non-conductive because the electrons are stuck in place.

In the future, such quantum states can be utilized for the development of energy-efficient electronic devices and fault-tolerant quantum computing applications.

Topology is the study of shapes and spaces that don’t change even if they are stretched, twisted, or deformed—without cutting or gluing.

“An everyday example of topology is the Möbius strip—a simple yet mind-bending object. Amazingly, no matter how you try to manipulate the strip, you cannot untwist it back into a normal loop without tearing it apart,” the study authors note.

A material exhibiting topology is of great importance because it has the uncanny ability to remain unaffected by external factors. Such a material can demonstrate robust quantum behavior, as its quantum states in such material are immune to small disturbances.

For instance, topological electronic crystals like the one mentioned in the current study are quite special. In these unique crystals, electrons move in a very stable way, no matter if there are small defects or impurities in the material.

What makes them special is that their stability comes from the material’s internal structure and not from outside influences like temperature or pressure.

However, these crystals are rare because only certain materials have the right atomic arrangement to support topological electron behavior.

----When electrons moved through this twisted structure, their behavior completely changed. “For example, the electrons slow way down, and sometimes they develop a twist in their motion, like the vortex in the water at the drain of a bathtub as it is draining out,” Joshua Folk, one of the study authors and a physics professor at the University of British Columbia (UBC), said.

This behavior resulted in a strange electronic effect. Inside the material, electrons became frozen in place, making it act like an insulator. However, along the edges, electrons moved effortlessly, allowing electricity to flow without resistance.

Generally, when electrons freeze and settle down such a structure is called the Wigner crystal. However, in this case, the rotational motion of electrons along the edges resulted in something different — the topological electronic crystal.

Generally, when electrons freeze and settle down such a structure is called the Wigner crystal. However, in this case, the rotational motion of electrons along the edges resulted in something different — the topological electronic crystal.

“The rotation of the electrons in the crystal is analogous to the twist in the Möbius strip and leads to the remarkable characteristic of the topological electronic crystal never before seen in the rare cases where electron crystals have been observed in the past,” the study authors said.

This rare discovery could contribute to the development of highly efficient electronic and quantum computing applications.

Never seen before quantum state discovered in graphene could advance computing

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

Alan Greenspan.


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