Wednesday, 19 February 2025

A USA Russia Deal? Who Won the Washington-London Biden War Party War?

Baltic Dry Index. 841 +35            Brent Crude 76.03

Spot Gold 2935               US 2 Year Yield 4.29 +0.03    

US Federal Debt. 36.498 trillion!

The cure for admiring the House of Lords is to go and look at it.

Walter Bagehot.

With a USA-Russia reproachment back on the table, who won the NATO proxy war in Ukraine? That poor, duped Ukrainians lost is a given, but for what?

Not that the global stock casinos care in the least as the great disconnect enters its final days.

Asia-Pacific stocks mostly fall as investors assess a slew of economic data from the region

Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 11:20 PM EST

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly down Wednesday, breaking ranks with Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 close at a record high as investors appeared to look past tariffs and inflation headwinds.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.43% while the broader Topix index was down 0.34% as the country reported a two-year high trade deficit.

Business sentiment for Japanese manufacturers rose for the second month in February, results from the Reuters Tankan poll indicates. The manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to plus 3 — its highest level since November — from plus 2 in January.

Over in South Korea, the Kospi was trading 1.89% higher, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.61%.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 Index was up 0.39% in choppy trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down 0.28%.

Indian stocks continued their decline with the benchmark Nifty 50 trading 0.25% lower, while the BSE Sensex index started the day down 0.45%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.78%, a day after the country’s central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first easing since November 2020.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% in its policy meeting, in line with Reuters’ estimates. The marks the central bank’s fourth straight cut and comes as its economy slows.

The New Zealand dollar weakened 0.3% to 0.5716 against the U.S. dollar.

Overnight in the U.S., all three indexes rose, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high after stocks rallied seconds before the closing bell. The broad market index gained 0.24% to a record close of 6,129.58, after touching an intraday record of 6,129.63 before the final bell. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.07% at 20,041.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 10 points, or 0.02%, to finish the session at 44,556.34.

The energy sector was the best-performer in the S&P 500, rising 1.9%, while tech stocks also ticked up.

Asia markets live updates: Stocks mostly fall; RBNZ cuts rates

European markets expected to open in mixed territory ahead of earnings, UK inflation data

Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 12:25 AM EST

European markets are expected to open in mixed territory Wednesday, with investors gearing up for more earnings releases and the latest inflation data from the U.K.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 5 points lower at 8,763, Germany’s DAX up 9 points at 22,868, France’s CAC down 12 points at 8,209 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 58 points higher at 38,686, according to data from IG.

Earnings on Wednesday come from BAE SystemsGlencoreRio TintoKoninklijke Philips and Carrefour. Europe’s largest lender HSBC earlier on Wednesday reported an annual pre-tax profit of $32.31 billion, marginally missing analysts’ estimates, as the bank’s net interest income declined by $3.1 billion from a year earlier.

Data releases Wednesday include the latest U.K. inflation data. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.K.’s consumer price index to have risen to 2.8% in January, up from 2.5% the previous month.

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly lower overnight, breaking ranks with Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 close at a record high on Tuesday as investors appeared to look past tariffs and inflation headwinds. U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday night.

Europe markets live updates: stock moves, UK inflation data, earnings

Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 clinches record high: Live updates

Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 12:47 AM EST

Stock futures were little changed early Wednesday after a winning session for stocks.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 38 points, hovering just above the flatline. S&P futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.09% and 0.13%, respectively.

In after-hours trading, data center company Arista Networks slid 4% even though its quarterly earnings and revenue, as well as its guidance, exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. Shares of Bumble fell about 18% on disappointing first-quarter guidance, while homebuilder Toll Brothers slipped nearly 5% on an earnings and revenue miss.

Investors are coming off of a trading session that saw the S&P 500 notch a fresh record high, even as concerns around sticky inflation and President Donald Trump’s trade policies persist. The index has been trading near its record high since the start of the year.

On Tuesday, the broad market index added 0.24% to close at 6,129.58, after touching an intraday record of 6,129.63 before the closing bell. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged higher by 0.07% to end at 20,041.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10 points, or 0.02%, to 44,556.34.

“The stock market’s resiliency has been impressive year-to-date as investors refuse to ‘back down’ in the face of rising negative sentiment and concerns about tariff and inflation headlines,” Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said in a Tuesday note. “We expect market conditions to remain choppy as investors rotate ‘down-cap’ amid declining Treasury yields, weakening crude oil, and a pullback in the U.S. dollar.”

Stock market today: Live updates

In other news, the war President Macron to his credit, did so much to try to prevent by negotiation, could have been avoided, but the Washington-London War Party rushed in Boris Johnson to Kiev to promise NATO support and promise a Ukraine “win.”

Once Russia learned how to fight a 21st century drone war, that Ukraine-NATO “win” was never remotely achievable. For what did all those Ukrainian and Russians die and get maimed for in Biden’s war?

Trump says Ukraine ‘should never have started it’ in comments about war with Russia

Published Tue, Feb 18 2025 5:45 PM EST

President Donald Trump suggested Tuesday that Ukraine was responsible for Russia’s invasion of the country three years ago, arguing Kyiv could have made a deal to avoid the conflict.

“You should have never started it,” Trump said of Ukraine while criticizing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had expressed concern that his country was not included in talks between the U.S. and Russia on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia.

“I think I have the power to end this war, and I think it’s going very well. But today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort. “You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

Trump went on to say: “I could have made a deal for Ukraine that would have given them almost all of the land, everything, almost all of the land, and no people would have been killed, and no city would have been demolished, and not one dome would have been knocked down. But they chose not to do it that way.”

The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump’s remarks.

The U.S. and Russia on Tuesday agreed in high-level talks to re-establish embassy staffing, diverging from previous American policy on the matter. Zelenskyy said earlier Tuesday that “Ukraine did not know anything about it.”

Trump, who said last week that he and President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone about ending the war, has increasingly made comments that have bolstered the Russian president. He said during an interview last month with Fox News that Ukraine should not have fought when it was invaded by Russia.

Trump says Ukraine 'should never have started it' in comments about war with Russia

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry for the death of a political economist.

Walter Bagehot.

Bank of England boss sends huge 3-word warning as UK economy fears soar

18 December 2025

The Governor of the Bank of England has said the UK is experiencing a "weak growth environment" amid a period of "heightened uncertainty" around the world.

Andrew Bailey, speaking at an event held by think tank Bruegel in Belgium, said: "Today, we're in a period of, frankly, heightened uncertainty - we all know what's going on around us."

Mr Bailey said continuing disinflation in the economy - meaning cooling price rises - had allowed the Bank to cut interest rates for the third time this month. adding: "Because we are facing a weak growth environment in the UK.

"It is quite hard to work out to what extent that weaker growth story is a result of supply-side weakness, or supply-and-demand-side weakness.

"The second thing is we are facing a short-run hump in inflation that's going to go up ... nearly all of that comes from administered prices, particularly in the energy market, water and some other public services."

The latest official figures show the UK economy unexpectedly grew by a measly 0.1% between October and December last year. Experts had expected it to have shrunk over the final quarter of 2024.

It was yet another blow to the Labour Government, which had pledged to catapult Britain's economic growth to the highest among the G7 group of developed countries before rowing back on the commitment to focus on raising living standards.

----Threadneedle Street has already halved its growth forecast for this year. The Bank said earlier this month that it expects the economy to grow by 0.75% in 2025, down from its previous estimate of 1.5%.

The impact of higher inflation resulting from higher wage and National Insurance costs for employers is one concern for the Bank on top of increased utility bills and potential US trade tariffs also pushing prices up.

More

Bank of England boss sends huge 3-word warning as UK economy fears soar

Wage growth accelerates for third straight month

Tuesday 18 February 2025 7:06 am  |  Updated:  Tuesday 18 February 2025 7:57 am

Wage growth accelerated again in the final quarter of last year, new figures show, in a reminder that the UK economy still faces sticky price pressures.

According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), annual regular pay growth averaged 5.9 per cent in the final three months of last year, up from 5.6 per cent previously and the fastest pace since last April.

Total pay growth – which includes bonuses – hit 6.0 per cent in the same period, also up from 5.6 per cent. This was the fastest rate of wage growth since November 2023.

“Growth in pay, excluding bonuses, rose for a third consecutive time, with increases in both the private and public sector,” Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS said.

Pay growth in the private sector averaged 6.2 per cent between October and December, the highest level since November 2023.

Labour market stagnant

Unemployment, meanwhile, remained steady at 4.4 per cent. Economists had expected to see a slight increase to 4.5 per cent.

Other indicators suggested that the labour market was broadly stagnant. The number of payrolled employees fell by just 3,000 between October and December, compared to the previous period.

The early estimate for January suggests a marginally better outlook, with the number of payrolled employees rising by 0.1 per cent, although these estimates are likely to be revised.

Multiple business surveys have pointed to a bleak outlook for the jobs market in recent months, as firms face the impact of the government’s tax hikes.

But the official data suggests the jobs market is proving more resilient. “All in, it looks like the labour market is holding up much better than the dire employment surveys would suggest,” Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM said.

But Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, warned that the strength of the labour market could fade fast in the new year.

A survey published earlier this week showed that a quarter of firms expect to make redundancies in the next quarter, the highest proportion in a decade, excluding the pandemic.

“The government will be watching the next few months’ numbers through their fingers,” Hyett said.

Wage growth a concern

While the figures were roughly in line with City forecasts, the acceleration in pay growth suggests that inflationary pressures remain elevated and may prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates aggressively.

Michael Brown, chief research strategist at Pepperstone said the rate of pay growth was “clearly incompatible” with inflation returning to target sustainably.

More

Wage growth accelerates for third straight month

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Donald Trump moves to cut funds for schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

February 16, 2025

Schools, colleges, and states that require students to be vaccinated against COVID-19 may lose federal funding under an executive order signed by President Donald Trump.

The directive instructs the Education Department and Health and Human Services to create a plan to end vaccine mandates and identify discretionary federal grants that could be revoked for noncompliance.

Limited national impact

The order is expected to have minimal impact nationwide, as most schools and colleges have already dropped COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Additionally, several states have enacted legislation prohibiting such mandates.

Rationale for the Order

Citing the “incredibly low risk” of serious illness from COVID-19 for children and young adults, the White House stated that denying education due to vaccine requirements is an “intolerable infringement on personal freedom.” The order aligns with Trump’s campaign promise that he would not allocate “one penny” to schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

Scope of the policy

The executive order applies solely to COVID-19 vaccines and does not impact existing state-mandated immunizations for diseases such as measles, mumps, polio, tetanus, and chickenpox. States continue to allow medical and religious exemptions for required vaccinations.

Existing COVID-19 vaccine policies

While many colleges initially required students to be immunized against COVID-19 during the pandemic, most have since dropped these mandates. A few institutions, including Swarthmore and Oberlin, still require vaccinations for students living on campus, but they provide exemptions for medical and religious reasons. At the state level, mandates were rare—California considered adding COVID-19 to its list of required vaccines for K-12 students but ultimately abandoned the plan. Illinois briefly required college students to be vaccinated before lifting the rule.

More

Donald Trump moves to cut funds for schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine mandates

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Battery storage climate and energy impact tracker launched in 'UK first'

18 February 2025

Pulse Clean Energy, LCP Delta and National Wealth Fund create tool to gauge impact of battery storage on both the environment and energy system

An open-source tool designed to track and certify the impact of battery storage facilities on the UK environment and energy system has been launched today by Pulse Clean Energy, as part of an initiative supported by LCP Delta and the UK's National Wealth Fund.

While batteries reduce carbon emissions by storing excess energy from renewable sources and feeding it back into the grid at times of peak demand, thereby reducing reliance on fossil fuels, there has previously been no standardised way to measure this impact, according to Pulse Clean Energy.

As such, the battery storage and grid stability specialist said asset owners, investors, and policymakers had until now been left without reliable, transparent data to substantiate sustainability claims and make informed improvements.

In what it claims is a UK first, however, the firm has today launched the UK Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Carbon Emissions Calculator, which it said uses real-time data from the UK's electricity market operator Elexon to calculate emissions from the electricity system for every half-hour period spread over a specific timeframe, such as daily, monthly or yearly. That data can then be combined with the actions of a specific battery asset or portfolio to estimate emissions generated from charging a battery, as well as the emissions avoided by discharging it, it said.

The difference between the emissions generated by the battery facility and the emissions avoided through its use provides the net-impact figure from the facility, it explained. If that figure is positive, it means the battery storage facility is a net-emitter of greenhouse gases, and if negative it means the asset is achieving net-abatement of CO2.

The firm said the tool uses marginal rather than average emissions calculations as this approach better represents the impact of batteries on the UK power system, and requires users to upload a record of an asset or portfolio's charge and discharge actions by half hour. The tracker then takes the data, runs the calculations, and returns the results for the user to download, with a certificate confirming the results have been produced by the tool, it added.

More, free subscription required.

Battery storage climate and energy impact tracker launched in 'UK first' | BusinessGreen News

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Be wiser than other people if you can, but do not tell them so.

Lord Chesterfield, statesman 1694-1773.


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