Baltic
Dry Index. 841 +35
Brent Crude 76.03
Spot Gold 2935 US 2 Year Yield 4.29 +0.03
US Federal Debt. 36.498 trillion!
The cure for admiring the House of Lords is to go and look at it.
Walter Bagehot.
With a USA-Russia reproachment back on the table, who won the NATO proxy war in Ukraine? That poor, duped Ukrainians lost is a given, but for what?
Not that the global stock casinos care in the least as the great disconnect enters its final days.
Asia-Pacific stocks mostly fall as investors
assess a slew of economic data from the region
Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 11:20 PM EST
Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly down
Wednesday, breaking ranks with Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 close at a record
high as investors appeared to look past tariffs and inflation headwinds.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.43% while
the broader Topix index was down 0.34% as the country reported a two-year high
trade deficit.
Business sentiment for Japanese
manufacturers rose for the second month in February, results from the Reuters
Tankan poll indicates. The manufacturers’ sentiment index rose to plus 3 — its
highest level since November — from plus 2 in January.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi was trading 1.89%
higher, while the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.61%.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 Index was up
0.39% in choppy trade. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down
0.28%.
Indian stocks continued their decline with
the benchmark Nifty 50 trading
0.25% lower, while the BSE Sensex index started the day down 0.45%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.78%,
a day after the country’s central bank cut
rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first easing
since November 2020.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates
by 50 basis points to 3.75% in its policy meeting, in line with Reuters’
estimates. The marks the central bank’s fourth
straight cut and comes as its economy slows.
The New Zealand dollar weakened 0.3% to
0.5716 against the U.S. dollar.
Overnight in the U.S., all three indexes
rose, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high after stocks rallied
seconds before the closing bell. The broad market index gained 0.24% to a
record close of 6,129.58, after touching an intraday record of 6,129.63 before
the final bell. The Nasdaq
Composite closed up 0.07% at 20,041.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added
10 points, or 0.02%, to finish the session at 44,556.34.
The energy sector was the best-performer
in the S&P 500, rising 1.9%, while tech stocks also ticked up.
Asia
markets live updates: Stocks mostly fall; RBNZ cuts rates
European markets expected to open in mixed
territory ahead of earnings, UK inflation data
Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 12:25 AM EST
European markets are expected to open in
mixed territory Wednesday, with investors gearing up for more earnings releases
and the latest inflation data from the U.K.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 5 points lower at 8,763, Germany’s DAX up 9 points at 22,868,
France’s CAC down 12
points at 8,209 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB 58 points higher at 38,686, according to data from IG.
Earnings on Wednesday come from BAE Systems, Glencore, Rio Tinto, Koninklijke Philips and Carrefour. Europe’s largest
lender HSBC earlier
on Wednesday reported an annual
pre-tax profit of $32.31 billion, marginally missing analysts’ estimates,
as the bank’s net interest income declined by $3.1 billion from a year earlier.
Data releases Wednesday include the latest
U.K. inflation data. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.K.’s consumer
price index to have risen to 2.8% in January, up from 2.5% the previous month.
Asia-Pacific
stocks were mostly lower overnight, breaking ranks with Wall Street
that saw the S&P 500 close
at a record high on Tuesday as investors appeared to look past tariffs and
inflation headwinds. U.S.
stock futures were little changed on Tuesday night.
Europe
markets live updates: stock moves, UK inflation data, earnings
Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500
clinches record high: Live updates
Updated Wed, Feb 19 2025 12:47 AM EST
Stock futures were little changed early
Wednesday after a winning session for stocks.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added 38 points, hovering just above the
flatline. S&P futures and Nasdaq 100 futures gained
0.09% and 0.13%, respectively.
In after-hours trading, data center
company Arista Networks slid
4% even though its quarterly earnings and revenue, as well as its guidance,
exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. Shares of Bumble fell about 18% on
disappointing first-quarter guidance, while homebuilder Toll Brothers slipped nearly
5% on an earnings and revenue miss.
Investors are coming off of a trading
session that saw the S&P
500 notch a fresh record high, even as concerns around sticky
inflation and President Donald Trump’s trade policies persist. The index has
been trading near its record high since the start of the year.
On Tuesday, the broad market index added
0.24% to close at 6,129.58, after touching an intraday record of 6,129.63
before the closing bell. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged
higher by 0.07% to end at 20,041.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
10 points, or 0.02%, to 44,556.34.
“The stock market’s resiliency has been
impressive year-to-date as investors refuse to ‘back down’ in the face of
rising negative sentiment and concerns about tariff and inflation headlines,”
Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said in a Tuesday
note. “We expect market conditions to remain choppy as investors rotate
‘down-cap’ amid declining Treasury yields, weakening crude oil, and a pullback
in the U.S. dollar.”
Stock market today: Live updates
In other news, the war President Macron to his credit, did so much to try to prevent by negotiation, could have been avoided, but the Washington-London War Party rushed in Boris Johnson to Kiev to promise NATO support and promise a Ukraine “win.”
Once Russia learned how to fight a 21st century drone war, that Ukraine-NATO “win” was never remotely achievable. For what did all those Ukrainian and Russians die and get maimed for in Biden’s war?
Trump says Ukraine ‘should never have started it’
in comments about war with Russia
Published Tue, Feb 18 2025 5:45 PM EST
President Donald Trump suggested Tuesday
that Ukraine was responsible for Russia’s invasion of the country three years
ago, arguing Kyiv could have made a deal to avoid the conflict.
“You should have never started it,” Trump
said of Ukraine while criticizing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had expressed concern that
his country was not included in talks between the U.S. and Russia on Tuesday in
Saudi Arabia.
“I think I have the power to end this war,
and I think it’s going very well. But today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t
invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years,” Trump told reporters at his
Mar-a-Lago resort. “You should have never started it. You could have made a
deal.”
Trump went on to say: “I could have made a
deal for Ukraine that would have given them almost all of the land, everything,
almost all of the land, and no people would have been killed, and no city would
have been demolished, and not one dome would have been knocked down. But they
chose not to do it that way.”
The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington did
not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump’s remarks.
The U.S. and Russia on Tuesday agreed
in high-level talks to re-establish embassy staffing, diverging from previous
American policy on the matter. Zelenskyy said earlier Tuesday that “Ukraine did
not know anything about it.”
Trump, who said last week that he
and President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone about ending the war, has increasingly
made comments that have bolstered the Russian president. He said during an
interview last month with Fox News that Ukraine should not have fought when it was invaded by
Russia.
Trump says Ukraine 'should never have started it' in comments about war with Russia
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry
for the death of a political economist.
Walter Bagehot.
Bank
of England boss sends huge 3-word warning as UK economy fears soar
18
December 2025
The
Governor of the Bank of England has said the UK is experiencing a "weak
growth environment" amid a period of "heightened uncertainty"
around the world.
Andrew
Bailey, speaking at an event held by think tank Bruegel in Belgium, said:
"Today, we're in a period of, frankly, heightened uncertainty - we all
know what's going on around us."
Mr
Bailey said continuing disinflation in the economy - meaning cooling price
rises - had allowed the Bank to cut interest rates for the third time this
month. adding: "Because we are facing a weak growth environment in the UK.
"It
is quite hard to work out to what extent that weaker growth story is a result
of supply-side weakness, or supply-and-demand-side weakness.
"The
second thing is we are facing a short-run hump in inflation that's going to go
up ... nearly all of that comes from administered prices, particularly in the
energy market, water and some other public services."
The
latest official figures show the UK economy unexpectedly grew by a measly 0.1%
between October and December last year. Experts had expected it to have shrunk
over the final quarter of 2024.
It
was yet another blow to the Labour Government, which had pledged to catapult
Britain's economic growth to the highest among the G7 group of developed
countries before rowing back on the commitment to focus on raising living
standards.
----Threadneedle
Street has already halved its growth forecast for this year. The Bank said
earlier this month that it expects the economy to grow by 0.75% in 2025, down
from its previous estimate of 1.5%.
The
impact of higher inflation resulting from higher wage and National Insurance
costs for employers is one concern for the Bank on top of increased utility
bills and potential US trade tariffs also pushing prices up.
More
Bank of England
boss sends huge 3-word warning as UK economy fears soar
Wage
growth accelerates for third straight month
Tuesday 18 February 2025 7:06 am | Updated: Tuesday 18 February 2025 7:57 am
Wage
growth accelerated again in the final quarter of last year, new figures show,
in a reminder that the UK economy still faces sticky price
pressures.
According
to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), annual regular
pay growth averaged 5.9 per cent in the final three months of last year, up
from 5.6 per cent previously and the fastest pace since last April.
Total
pay growth – which includes bonuses – hit 6.0 per cent in the same period, also
up from 5.6 per cent. This was the fastest rate of wage growth since November
2023.
“Growth
in pay, excluding bonuses, rose for a third consecutive time, with increases in
both the private and public sector,” Liz McKeown, director of economic
statistics at the ONS said.
Pay
growth in the private sector averaged 6.2 per cent between October and
December, the highest level since November 2023.
Labour
market stagnant
Unemployment,
meanwhile, remained steady at 4.4 per cent. Economists had expected to see a
slight increase to 4.5 per cent.
Other
indicators suggested that the labour market was broadly stagnant. The number of
payrolled employees fell by just 3,000 between October and December, compared
to the previous period.
The
early estimate for January suggests a marginally better outlook, with the
number of payrolled employees rising by 0.1 per cent, although these estimates
are likely to be revised.
Multiple
business surveys have pointed to a bleak outlook for the jobs market in recent
months, as firms face the impact of the government’s tax hikes.
But
the official data suggests the jobs market is proving more resilient. “All in,
it looks like the labour market is holding up much better than the dire
employment surveys would suggest,” Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM said.
But
Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, warned that the strength of
the labour market could fade fast in the new year.
A
survey published earlier this week showed that a quarter of firms expect to
make redundancies in the next quarter, the highest proportion in a decade,
excluding the pandemic.
“The
government will be watching the next few months’ numbers through their
fingers,” Hyett said.
Wage
growth a concern
While
the figures were roughly in line with City forecasts, the acceleration in pay
growth suggests that inflationary pressures remain elevated and may prevent the
Bank of England from cutting interest rates aggressively.
Michael
Brown, chief research strategist at Pepperstone said the rate of pay growth was
“clearly incompatible” with inflation returning to target sustainably.
More
Wage growth accelerates for third straight month
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Donald Trump moves to cut funds for schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine
mandates
February 16, 2025
Schools, colleges, and
states that require students to be vaccinated against COVID-19 may lose federal
funding under an executive order signed by President Donald Trump.
The directive instructs
the Education Department and Health and Human Services to create a plan to end
vaccine mandates and identify discretionary federal grants that could be
revoked for noncompliance.
Limited national impact
The order is expected to
have minimal impact nationwide, as most schools and colleges have already
dropped COVID-19 vaccine mandates. Additionally, several states have enacted
legislation prohibiting such mandates.
Rationale for the Order
Citing the “incredibly
low risk” of serious illness from COVID-19 for children and young adults,
the White House stated that denying education due to vaccine requirements is an
“intolerable infringement on personal freedom.” The order aligns with Trump’s campaign promise that he would not allocate “one penny”
to schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine mandates.
Scope of the policy
The executive order applies solely to COVID-19 vaccines and does
not impact existing state-mandated immunizations for diseases such as measles,
mumps, polio, tetanus, and chickenpox. States continue to allow medical and
religious exemptions for required vaccinations.
Existing COVID-19 vaccine policies
While many colleges
initially required students to be immunized against COVID-19 during the
pandemic, most have since dropped these mandates. A few institutions, including
Swarthmore and Oberlin, still require vaccinations for students living on
campus, but they provide exemptions for medical and religious reasons. At the
state level, mandates were rare—California considered adding COVID-19 to its
list of required vaccines for K-12 students but ultimately abandoned the plan.
Illinois briefly required college students to be vaccinated before lifting the
rule.
More
Donald Trump moves to cut funds for schools enforcing COVID-19 vaccine
mandates
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Battery
storage climate and energy impact tracker launched in 'UK first'
18
February 2025
Pulse
Clean Energy, LCP Delta and National Wealth Fund create tool to gauge impact of
battery storage on both the environment and energy system
An
open-source tool designed to track and certify the impact of battery storage
facilities on the UK environment and energy system has been launched today by
Pulse Clean Energy, as part of an initiative supported by LCP Delta and the
UK's National Wealth Fund.
While
batteries reduce carbon emissions by storing excess energy from renewable
sources and feeding it back into the grid at times of peak demand, thereby
reducing reliance on fossil fuels, there has previously been no standardised
way to measure this impact, according to Pulse Clean Energy.
As
such, the battery storage and grid stability specialist said asset owners,
investors, and policymakers had until now been left without reliable,
transparent data to substantiate sustainability claims and make informed
improvements.
In
what it claims is a UK first, however, the firm has today launched the UK
Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Carbon Emissions Calculator, which it
said uses real-time data from the UK's electricity market operator Elexon to
calculate emissions from the electricity system for every half-hour period
spread over a specific timeframe, such as daily, monthly or yearly. That data
can then be combined with the actions of a specific battery asset or portfolio
to estimate emissions generated from charging a battery, as well as the
emissions avoided by discharging it, it said.
The
difference between the emissions generated by the battery facility and the
emissions avoided through its use provides the net-impact figure from the
facility, it explained. If that figure is positive, it means the battery
storage facility is a net-emitter of greenhouse gases, and if negative it means
the asset is achieving net-abatement of CO2.
The
firm said the tool uses marginal rather than average emissions calculations as
this approach better represents the impact of batteries on the UK power system,
and requires users to upload a record of an asset or portfolio's charge and
discharge actions by half hour. The tracker then takes the data, runs the
calculations, and returns the results for the user to download, with a
certificate confirming the results have been produced by the tool, it added.
More,
free subscription required.
Battery storage
climate and energy impact tracker launched in 'UK first' | BusinessGreen News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Be
wiser than other people if you can, but do not tell them so.
Lord
Chesterfield, statesman 1694-1773.
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