Monday, 3 February 2025

Trump’s Tariffs Wars On Friend And Foe Alike. Bunker Time.

Baltic Dry Index. 735 +20            Brent Crude 76.40

Spot Gold 2784               US 2 Year Yield 4.21 +0.04  

US Federal Debt. 36.431 trillion!

"When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win."

President Trump.

Let the global tariff/trade wars commence! How it ends, no one knows. Will there be winners and losers, probably, but its also likely all will come out losers.

Asia-Pacific markets slide after Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on several countries

Updated Mon, Feb 3 2025 11:12 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded lower Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump levied tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.61%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.99%, while the Topix lost 1.87%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.52% and the small-cap Kosdaq traded 2.79% lower.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.23% at the open.

India’s Nifty 50 fell 0.69% while the Sensex lost 0.88% at the open. India’s Union Budget over the weekend offered a huge income tax relief to the country’s middle class. The Indian government also pledged to reduce its fiscal deficit to 4.4% of its GDP for the year beginning April 1, a decrease from a revised 4.8% for the current year, amongst other measures.

Chinese markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Caixin/S&P Global services manufacturing activity data for China will be released later in the day. The PMI is expected to come in at 50.5, according to Reuters poll estimates. 

On Saturday, Trump signed an order implementing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on goods from China. Energy exports from Canada will face a reduced 10% tariff, which are set to come into effect on Tuesday stateside.

The U.S. conducts around $1.6 trillion in annual business with these three countries combined. 

Last Friday in the U.S., the three major averages closed lower. The S&P 500 shed 0.50% to end at 6,040.53, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 337.47 points, or 0.75%, weighed down by a decline in Chevron. The 30-stock Dow ended the session at 44,544.66. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.28% to 19,627.44.

Asia markets live: China Caixin PMI, South Korea retail sales

Trump says Canada would have no tariffs as 51st state, as observers brace for trade war

Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, and 10% tariffs on Canadian energy set to take effect Tuesday

Published February 2, 2025 12:01pm EST

President Donald Trump repeated his suggestion that Canada become the 51st on Sunday, noting that it would not be subjected to his incoming tariffs should the country join the U.S.

"We pay hundreds of Billions of Dollars to SUBSIDIZE Canada. Why? There is no reason," Trump wrote on TRUTH Social. "We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country. Harsh but true!" 

"Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State," Trump added. "Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada – AND NO TARIFFS!" 

Trump has for weeks suggested the United States should take control of Canada through economic pressure.

TRUMP IMPOSES TARIFFS ON IMPORTS FROM CANADA, MEXICO AND CHINA: 'NATIONAL EMERGENCY'

Citing the flow of illicit drugs across the northern border, Trump signed an order Saturday to implement a 25% tariff on goods entering the United States from Canada. The order, which takes effect Tuesday, also puts a 10% duty on energy or energy resources from Canada. The order states, "gang members, smugglers, human traffickers, and illicit drugs of all kinds have poured across our borders and into our communities," adding that "Canada has played a central role in these challenges, including by failing to devote sufficient attention and resources or meaningfully coordinate with United States law enforcement partners to effectively stem the tide of illicit drugs." 

Trump also said he would implement tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico, as well as 10% on imports from China due to the flow of drugs across U.S. borders.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum both vowed retaliation on Saturday. 

"We categorically reject the White House's slander of the Government of Mexico for having alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any intention to interfere in our territory," Sheinbaum said, adding that she instructed her administration officials to implement "tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico's interests." 

Trudeau said Canada would impose 25% tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods, including "immediate tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods effective Tuesday, followed by further tariffs on $125 billion worth of American products in 21 days." 

"I don't think we're not at all interested in escalating, but I think that there will be a very strong demand on our government to make sure that we stand up for the deal that we have struck with the United States," Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman told ABC News' "This Week" on Sunday. 

Trump offers way for Canada to avoid tariffs: 'Become our Cherished 51st State' | Fox News

China denounces Trump tariff: ‘Fentanyl is America’s problem’

Published Sun, Feb 2 2025 3:24 AM EST

China’s government on Sunday denounced the Trump administration’s imposition of a long-threatened 10% tariff on Chinese imports while leaving the door open for talks with the U.S. that could avoid a deepening conflict.

Beijing will challenge President Donald Trump’s tariff at the World Trade Organization and take unspecified “countermeasures” in response to the levy, which takes effect on Tuesday, the finance and commerce ministries said.

The response stopped short of the immediate escalation that had marked China’s trade showdown with Trump in his first term as president and repeated the more measured language Beijing has used in recent weeks.

Trump on Saturday ordered 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on goods from China, saying Beijing needed to stanch the flow of fentanyl, a deadly opioid, into the United States.

China’s commerce ministry said in a statement that Trump’s move “seriously violates” international trade rules, urging the U.S. to “engage in frank dialogue and strengthen cooperation.”

Filing a lawsuit with the WTO would be a largely symbolic move that Beijing has also taken against tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles by the European Union.

For weeks Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning has said Beijing believes there is no winner in a trade war.

China’s sharpest pushback on Sunday was over fentanyl, an area where the administration of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, had also been urging Beijing to crack down on shipments of the China-made precursor chemicals needed to manufacture the drug.

“Fentanyl is America’s problem,” China’s foreign ministry said. “The Chinese side has carried out extensive anti-narcotics cooperation with the United States and achieved remarkable results.”

China denounces Trump tariff: 'Fentanyl is America's problem'

Trump tariffs-led spike in energy prices is temporary, oil prices could ‘plummet’ as global growth slows

Published Mon, Feb 3 2025 12:17 AM EST

Oil prices are likely to fall in the longer run after the initial jump following President Donald Trump’s implementation of hefty tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, said industry watchers. 

Over the weekend, Trump followed through on his long-threatened 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% duty on goods from China. Energy resources from Canada will be subject to a lower 10% tariff.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.75% to $73.8 per barrel, while U.S. gasoline futures also climbed. RBOB Gasoline futures were last up 2.81% at $2.11 per gallon. International Brent crude climbed 0.71% to $76.21 per barrel.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, America’s imports of Canadian crude oil reached a record 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024, following the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline. Canada made up about 62% of all U.S. crude oil imports in the first 10 months of last year, while Mexico accounted for about 7% in the same period.

While crude markets will see higher prices and consumers will be forking out more for gasoline and diesel costs in the near term, the spike is only temporary, oil watchers told CNBC. 

“While the initial move on crude oil is upward, a cycle of tariffs and retaliatory actions by Canada, Mexico, China and perhaps others in the future could lead to a worldwide recession, causing oil prices to plummet,” Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates told CNBC.

The tariffs have not resulted in any oil supplies being taken off the market, and will result in a redistribution of supplies as Mexico and Canada look to divert their volumes to Europe and Asia, Lipow added. Meanwhile, U.S. refiners will be looking to process more domestic crude oil while seeking Middle East alternatives.

Canada to bear the brunt

Both Canada and Mexico have limited spare refining capacity or alternative export routes, and the tariffs will likely push oil producers in both countries into steep price discounts, said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

Canadian oil producers will eventually bear the brunt of the tariffs’ burden with a $3 to $4 per barrel discount on Canadian crude given the limited alternative export markets, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note dated Sunday. 

In the medium term, Goldman’s analysts also expect that broad tariffs will impact global GDP as well as oil demand, weighing down oil prices.

Additionally, global oil prices could drop further after the next quarter as tariffs worsen the demand picture and OPEC+ faces increasing pressure from Trump to reverse production cuts, said Kavonic. Trump recently stated that he is urging Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices.

The oil cartel, which is slated to meet on Monday, has yet to respond to Trump’s request. OPEC+ has been withholding 2.2 million barrels per day from the global market to stem falling prices. In December, the group decided to extend its production cuts through at least March 2025 before phasing them out gradually over the course of a year.

Oil prices could fall after Trump tariffs spark initial energy price spike

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Tariff War Likely to Put Canada Into Recession, Economists Say

Sun 2 February 2025 at 9:12 pm GMT 

(Bloomberg) -- The Canadian economy is set to face the most severe shock since the Covid-19 pandemic and will probably sink into a recession if a tariff war persists, say top economists, with one calling it an “existential threat.”

President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on most goods the US buys from Canada and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to retaliate on C$155 billion ($105 billion) worth of American-made products will trim real gross domestic product growth by 2 to 4 percentage points, according to economists’ estimates.

For an economy that was projected to grow at 1.8% in 2025, that would imply the first annual contraction in 16 years, outside of the pandemic. Consumer prices are likely to increase at a faster pace than the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, the unemployment rate is expected to rise and the Canadian dollar will weaken further.

Here’s what economists are saying:

Toronto-Dominion Bank

Chief Economist Beata Caranci and Senior Economist James Orlando expect a “sharp negative reaction” in North American equity markets and the loonie, which could drop as low as 65 US cents. The economy will probably go into recession if tariffs are sustained for five to six months. Any longer would deepen the contraction, and the unemployment rate may cross the 7% threshold. “It is premature to estimate the central bank response,” they said.

Bank of Montreal

Chief Economist Douglas Porter said US tariffs and Canada’s counter-levies may reduce Canadian GDP growth by about two percentage points, and “if the announced tariffs remain in place for one year, the economy would face the risk of a modest recession.” Based on the tariff news, he sees the Bank of Canada cutting its policy rate by a quarter point at each meeting until October, then holding at 1.5%.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld said a permanent, two-way trade war would be a “recessionary shock for Canada.” While a weaker loonie and a mix of monetary and fiscal stimulus could aid a recovery, the losses from trade would mean weaker real output even after a return to full employment. “Our upcoming forecasts are likely to be based on a less damaging scenario that has the tariffs removed at the negotiating table, as there is precedent for that from Trump’s first term.”

More

Tariff War Likely to Put Canada Into Recession, Economists Say

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID-19 Remains Major Health Threat in U.S.

WEDNESDAY, Jan. 29, 2025 (HealthDay News) -- COVID-19 continues to be a threat to America's health, causing more illness and death than either influenza or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a new study suggests.

COVID accounted for 3 of 5 (60%) respiratory illnesses among military veterans treated by the U.S. Veterans Health Administration during the 2023-2024 cold and flu season, researchers reported Jan. 27 in JAMA Internal Medicine.

COVID also caused more deaths than either influenza or RSV during that period, particularly among people who weren't vaccinated against the coronavirus, researchers found.

"SARS-CoV-2 (the COVID virus) was far more common than influenza or RSV and resulted in more severe disease outcomes, including short-term hospitalization and mortality," concluded the research team led by Dr. Kristina Bajema, medical director of antimicrobial stewardship with the Veterans Affairs Portland Health Care System in Portland, Or.

For the study, researchers analyzed the medical records of 72,939 veterans treated for COVID, flu or RSV between August 2023 and March 2024.

Results showed that 60% of vets sick with respiratory illness during the last cold and flu season had been infected with COVID, compared with 26% with influenza and 13% with RSV.

COVID and influenza had similar rates of hospitalization (16%), slightly higher than RSV (14%).

Likewise, COVID and influenza had a similar short-term risk of death, within a month of infection.

But long-term risk of death, within six months of infection, was higher among COVID patients than those with flu or RSV.

"COVID-19 was associated with more severe disease outcomes, including long-term mortality, compared with influenza or RSV," researchers wrote.

The results also showed that veterans not vaccinated against the respiratory illnesses were more likely to die or require hospitalization.

Those not vaccinated against COVID were more likely to die than those not vaccinated against flu, researchers found.

But "among groups vaccinated against their respective infections, there were no mortality differences at any time point between COVID-19 and influenza," researchers wrote.

More

COVID-19 Remains Major Health Threat in U.S.

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Deepseek explained, approx.. 10 minutes. How does a cow catch a hare?

Deepseek R1 Explained by a Retired Microsoft Engineer

Deepseek R1 Explained by a Retired Microsoft Engineer - YouTube

Run DeepSeek R1 Privately on Your Computer (Approx. 14 minutes.)

Run DeepSeek R1 Privately on Your Computer - YouTube

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

I am the only one who can make America truly great again!

Donald Trump. 

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