Baltic
Dry Index. 735 +20
Brent Crude 76.40
Spot Gold 2784 US 2 Year Yield 4.21 +0.04
US Federal Debt. 36.431 trillion!
"When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win."
President Trump.
Let the global tariff/trade wars commence! How it ends, no one knows. Will there be winners and losers, probably, but its also likely all will come out losers.
Asia-Pacific markets slide after Donald Trump’s
sweeping tariffs on several countries
Updated Mon, Feb 3 2025 11:12 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded lower Monday
after U.S. President Donald Trump levied
tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped
1.61%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.99%, while
the Topix lost 1.87%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.52% and the
small-cap Kosdaq traded 2.79% lower.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.23%
at the open.
India’s Nifty 50 fell 0.69% while
the Sensex lost 0.88% at the open. India’s Union Budget
over the weekend offered a huge income tax relief to the country’s
middle class. The Indian government also pledged to reduce its fiscal deficit
to 4.4% of its GDP for the year beginning April 1, a decrease from a revised
4.8% for the current year, amongst other measures.
Chinese markets remain closed for the
Lunar New Year holiday.
Caixin/S&P Global services
manufacturing activity data for China will be released later in the day. The
PMI is expected to come in at 50.5, according to Reuters poll estimates.
On Saturday, Trump signed an order
implementing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff
on goods from China. Energy exports from Canada will face a reduced 10%
tariff, which are set to come into effect on Tuesday stateside.
The U.S. conducts around $1.6 trillion in
annual business with these three countries combined.
Last Friday in the U.S., the three major
averages closed lower. The S&P
500 shed 0.50% to end at 6,040.53, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled
337.47 points, or 0.75%, weighed down by a decline in Chevron. The 30-stock Dow ended the
session at 44,544.66. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped
0.28% to 19,627.44.
Asia
markets live: China Caixin PMI, South Korea retail sales
Trump says Canada would have no tariffs as 51st
state, as observers brace for trade war
Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, and
10% tariffs on Canadian energy set to take effect Tuesday
Published February 2, 2025 12:01pm
EST
President Donald Trump repeated his
suggestion that Canada become the 51st on Sunday, noting that it would not be
subjected to his incoming tariffs should the country join the U.S.
"We pay hundreds of Billions of
Dollars to SUBSIDIZE Canada. Why? There is no reason," Trump wrote on
TRUTH Social. "We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy,
should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without
this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country. Harsh but
true!"
"Therefore, Canada should become
our Cherished 51st State," Trump added. "Much
lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada – AND
NO TARIFFS!"
Trump has for weeks suggested the United
States should take control of Canada through economic pressure.
TRUMP IMPOSES TARIFFS ON IMPORTS FROM CANADA, MEXICO AND
CHINA: 'NATIONAL EMERGENCY'
Citing the flow of illicit drugs across
the northern border, Trump signed an order Saturday to implement a 25% tariff
on goods entering the United States from Canada. The order, which takes effect
Tuesday, also puts a 10% duty on energy or energy resources from Canada. The
order states, "gang members, smugglers, human traffickers, and illicit
drugs of all kinds have poured across our borders and into our
communities," adding that "Canada has played a central role in these
challenges, including by failing to devote sufficient attention and resources
or meaningfully coordinate with United States law enforcement partners to
effectively stem the tide of illicit drugs."
Trump also said he would implement tariffs
of 25% on goods from Mexico, as well as 10% on imports from China due
to the flow of drugs across U.S. borders.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum both vowed retaliation on Saturday.
"We categorically reject the White
House's slander of the Government of Mexico for having alliances with criminal
organizations, as well as any intention to interfere in our territory,"
Sheinbaum said, adding that she instructed her administration officials to
implement "tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico's
interests."
Trudeau said Canada would impose 25%
tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods, including "immediate tariffs on $30
billion worth of goods effective Tuesday, followed by further tariffs on $125
billion worth of American products in 21 days."
"I don't think we're not at all
interested in escalating, but I think that there will be a very strong demand
on our government to make sure that we stand up for the deal that we have
struck with the United States," Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten
Hillman told ABC News' "This Week" on Sunday.
Trump offers way for Canada to avoid tariffs: 'Become our Cherished 51st State' | Fox News
China denounces Trump tariff: ‘Fentanyl is
America’s problem’
Published Sun, Feb 2 2025 3:24 AM EST
China’s government on Sunday denounced the
Trump administration’s imposition of a long-threatened
10% tariff on Chinese imports while leaving the door open for talks
with the U.S. that could avoid a deepening conflict.
Beijing will challenge President Donald
Trump’s tariff at the World Trade Organization and take unspecified
“countermeasures” in response to the levy, which takes effect on Tuesday, the
finance and commerce ministries said.
The response stopped short of the
immediate escalation that had marked China’s trade showdown with Trump in his
first term as president and repeated the more measured language Beijing has
used in recent weeks.
Trump on Saturday ordered 25% tariffs on
Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on goods from China, saying Beijing needed
to stanch the flow of fentanyl, a deadly opioid, into the United States.
China’s commerce ministry said in a
statement that Trump’s move “seriously violates” international trade rules,
urging the U.S. to “engage in frank dialogue and strengthen cooperation.”
Filing a lawsuit with the WTO would be a
largely symbolic move that Beijing has also taken against tariffs on
Chinese-made electric vehicles by the European Union.
For weeks Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokesperson Mao Ning has said Beijing believes there is no winner in a trade
war.
China’s sharpest pushback on Sunday was
over fentanyl, an area where the administration of Trump’s predecessor, Joe
Biden, had also been urging Beijing to crack down on shipments of the
China-made precursor chemicals needed to manufacture the drug.
“Fentanyl is America’s problem,” China’s
foreign ministry said. “The Chinese side has carried out extensive
anti-narcotics cooperation with the United States and achieved remarkable
results.”
China
denounces Trump tariff: 'Fentanyl is America's problem'
Trump tariffs-led spike in energy prices is
temporary, oil prices could ‘plummet’ as global growth slows
Published Mon, Feb 3 2025 12:17 AM EST
Oil prices are likely to fall in the
longer run after the initial jump following President
Donald Trump’s implementation of hefty tariffs on Canada, Mexico and
China, said industry watchers.
Over the weekend, Trump followed through
on his long-threatened 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well
as a 10% duty on goods from China. Energy resources from Canada will be subject
to a lower 10% tariff.
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose
1.75% to $73.8 per barrel, while U.S. gasoline futures also climbed. RBOB Gasoline futures were last up 2.81% at $2.11 per
gallon. International Brent
crude climbed 0.71% to $76.21 per barrel.
According to the latest
data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, America’s imports of
Canadian crude oil reached a record 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024,
following the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline. Canada made up about 62% of all U.S. crude oil imports in
the first 10 months of last year, while Mexico accounted for about 7% in the
same period.
While crude markets will see higher prices
and consumers will be forking out more for gasoline and diesel costs in the
near term, the spike is only temporary, oil watchers told CNBC.
“While the initial move on crude oil is
upward, a cycle of tariffs and retaliatory actions by Canada, Mexico, China and
perhaps others in the future could lead to a worldwide recession, causing oil
prices to plummet,” Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates told CNBC.
The tariffs have not resulted in any oil
supplies being taken off the market, and will result in a redistribution of
supplies as Mexico and Canada look to divert their volumes to Europe and Asia,
Lipow added. Meanwhile, U.S. refiners will be looking to process more domestic
crude oil while seeking Middle East alternatives.
Canada to bear the brunt
Both Canada and Mexico have limited spare
refining capacity or alternative export routes, and the tariffs will likely
push oil producers in both countries into steep price discounts, said Saul
Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.
Canadian oil producers will eventually
bear the brunt of the tariffs’ burden with a $3 to $4 per barrel discount on
Canadian crude given the limited alternative export markets, Goldman Sachs
wrote in a note dated Sunday.
In the medium term, Goldman’s analysts
also expect that broad tariffs will impact global GDP as well as oil demand,
weighing down oil prices.
Additionally, global oil prices could drop
further after the next quarter as tariffs worsen the demand picture and OPEC+
faces increasing pressure from Trump to reverse production cuts, said Kavonic.
Trump recently stated that he is urging Saudi
Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices.
The oil cartel, which is slated to meet on
Monday, has yet to respond to Trump’s request. OPEC+ has been withholding 2.2
million barrels per day from the global market to stem falling prices. In
December, the group decided to extend its production cuts through at least
March 2025 before phasing them out gradually over the course of a year.
Oil prices could fall after Trump tariffs spark initial energy price spike
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Tariff
War Likely to Put Canada Into Recession, Economists Say
Sun
2 February 2025 at 9:12 pm GMT
(Bloomberg)
-- The Canadian economy is set to face the most severe shock since the Covid-19
pandemic and will probably sink into a recession if a tariff war persists, say
top economists, with one calling it an “existential threat.”
President
Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on most goods the US buys from Canada and Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to retaliate on C$155 billion ($105 billion)
worth of American-made products will trim real gross domestic product growth by
2 to 4 percentage points, according to economists’ estimates.
For
an economy that was projected to grow at 1.8% in 2025, that would imply the
first annual contraction in 16 years, outside of the pandemic. Consumer prices
are likely to increase at a faster pace than the Bank of Canada’s 2% target,
the unemployment rate is expected to rise and the Canadian dollar will weaken
further.
Here’s
what economists are saying:
Toronto-Dominion
Bank
Chief
Economist Beata Caranci and Senior Economist James Orlando expect a “sharp
negative reaction” in North American equity markets and the loonie, which could
drop as low as 65 US cents. The economy will probably go into recession if
tariffs are sustained for five to six months. Any longer would deepen the
contraction, and the unemployment rate may cross the 7% threshold. “It is
premature to estimate the central bank response,” they said.
Bank
of Montreal
Chief
Economist Douglas Porter said US tariffs and Canada’s counter-levies may reduce
Canadian GDP growth by about two percentage points, and “if the announced
tariffs remain in place for one year, the economy would face the risk of a
modest recession.” Based on the tariff news, he sees the Bank of Canada cutting
its policy rate by a quarter point at each meeting until October, then holding
at 1.5%.
Canadian
Imperial Bank of Commerce
Chief
Economist Avery Shenfeld said a permanent, two-way trade war would be a
“recessionary shock for Canada.” While a weaker loonie and a mix of monetary
and fiscal stimulus could aid a recovery, the losses from trade would mean
weaker real output even after a return to full employment. “Our upcoming
forecasts are likely to be based on a less damaging scenario that has the
tariffs removed at the negotiating table, as there is precedent for that from
Trump’s first term.”
More
Tariff
War Likely to Put Canada Into Recession, Economists Say
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 Remains Major Health Threat in U.S.
WEDNESDAY, Jan. 29, 2025
(HealthDay News) -- COVID-19 continues to be a threat to America's health,
causing more illness and death than either influenza or respiratory syncytial
virus (RSV), a new study suggests.
COVID accounted for 3 of
5 (60%) respiratory illnesses among military veterans treated by the U.S.
Veterans Health Administration during the 2023-2024 cold and flu season,
researchers reported Jan. 27 in JAMA Internal Medicine.
COVID also caused more
deaths than either influenza or RSV during that period, particularly among
people who weren't vaccinated against the coronavirus, researchers found.
"SARS-CoV-2 (the
COVID virus) was far more common than influenza or RSV and resulted in more
severe disease outcomes, including short-term hospitalization and
mortality," concluded the research team led by Dr.
Kristina Bajema, medical director of antimicrobial stewardship with the
Veterans Affairs Portland Health Care System in Portland, Or.
For the study,
researchers analyzed the medical records of 72,939 veterans treated for COVID,
flu or RSV between August 2023 and March 2024.
Results showed that 60%
of vets sick with respiratory illness during the last cold and flu season had
been infected with COVID, compared with 26% with influenza and 13% with RSV.
COVID and influenza had
similar rates of hospitalization (16%), slightly higher than RSV (14%).
Likewise, COVID and
influenza had a similar short-term risk of death, within a month of infection.
But long-term risk of
death, within six months of infection, was higher among COVID patients than
those with flu or RSV.
"COVID-19 was
associated with more severe disease outcomes, including long-term mortality,
compared with influenza or RSV," researchers wrote.
The results also showed
that veterans not vaccinated against the respiratory illnesses were more likely
to die or require hospitalization.
Those not vaccinated
against COVID were more likely to die than those not vaccinated against flu,
researchers found.
But "among groups
vaccinated against their respective infections, there were no mortality
differences at any time point between COVID-19 and influenza," researchers
wrote.
More
COVID-19
Remains Major Health Threat in U.S.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Deepseek explained, approx.. 10
minutes. How does a cow catch a hare?
Deepseek
R1 Explained by a Retired Microsoft Engineer
Deepseek R1 Explained by a Retired
Microsoft Engineer - YouTube
Run
DeepSeek R1 Privately on Your Computer (Approx. 14 minutes.)
Run DeepSeek R1 Privately on Your Computer
- YouTube
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
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