Baltic
Dry Index. 771 +18
Brent Crude 74.80
Spot Gold 2889 US 2 Year Yield 4.17 -0.04
US Federal Debt. 36.443 trillion!
In the stock casinos, The Great Disconnect from a souring global economy is alive and thriving. What could possibly go wrong?
Look away from that falling oil price now.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mostly higher,
shrugging off a week of trade turmoil
Updated Thu, Feb 6 2025 11:12 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher
Thursday, tracking gains on Wall Street as investors shrug off a week of trade
turmoil and a slew of disappointing U.S. tech earnings.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 1.14%
higher.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.46%, while
the Topix added 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.93% and teh
small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.09%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed
0.31%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.14%.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 was down 0.16%,
while the BSE Sensex traded around the flatline.
India’s central bank is expected to cut
benchmark interest rates in its policy meeting that’s underway, as it strives
to stimulate a faltering economy. The decision will be out on Friday.
Overnight in the U.S., the three major
indexes posted gains for the second day in a row, even as notable technology
stocks Alphabet and AMD posted steep losses
following earnings.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
317.24 points, or 0.71%, to 44,873.28. The index’s gains were led by a sharp
advance in Nvidia.
The S&P 500 rose
0.39%, ending at 6,061.48. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite added
0.19%, closing at 19,692.33.
Nvidia jumped
more than 5% after server maker Super
Micro Computer announced full production availability of its
artificial intelligence data center with Nvidia’s Blackwell platform. Super
Micro shares rose around 8% following the announcement.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: RBI meeting, Nvidia
European markets edge towards positive open ahead
of earnings, Bank of England rate decision
Updated Thu, Feb 6 2025 12:22 AM EST
European markets are heading for a
positive open on Thursday, with investors awaiting more earnings reports and
the latest monetary policy decision from the Bank of England.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 53 points higher at 8,672, Germany’s DAX up 92 points at 21,640,
France’s CAC up 26
points at 7,905 and Italy’s FTSE
MIB 70 points higher at 36,772, according to data from IG.
Earnings are set to come from ING, ArcelorMittal, Carlsberg, AstraZeneca, Ørsted, Vinci, L’Oreal, Siemens Healthineers, Telenor, Societe Generale and Maersk.
The Bank of England is expected to
deliver its
first interest rate cut of the year when policymakers meet on
Thursday.
Asia-Pacific
markets traded mostly higher overnight, tracking gains on Wall Street
Wednesday as investors shrugged off a week of trade turbulence. U.S.
stock futures were little changed Wednesday night after the major U.S.
averages posted back-to-back winning sessions.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings
Dow closes 300 points higher for back-to-back
gains as investors look past tariff tumult: Live updates
Updated Wed, Feb 5 2025 4:27 PM EST
Stocks rallied on Wednesday, pushing the
major averages higher for the second day in a row, as investors looked past the
trade turmoil that weighed on the market earlier in the week.
The gains came even as notable technology
stocks Alphabet and AMD posted steep losses
following earnings.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
317.24 points, or 0.71%, to 44,873.28. The index’s gains were led by a sharp
advance in Nvidia.
The S&P 500 rose
0.39%, ending at 6,061.48. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite added
0.19%, closing at 19,692.33.
Nvidia jumped
more than 5% after server maker Super
Micro Computer announced full production availability of its
artificial intelligence data center with Nvidia’s Blackwell platform. Super
Micro shares rose around 8% following the announcement.
Amgen also
helped the Dow’s advance in the session, as the stock jumped 6% on the heels of
its better-than-expected adjusted earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter.
The Dow, along with the two other major
averages, tumbled on Monday after the U.S. unveiled a 10% levy on Chinese
imports over the weekend. But the benchmarks started to turn around later
during that trading day and have continued that trend into Tuesday, which also
saw China retaliate
with tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. goods.
“Overall, Third Point expects the
environment for investing in equities to continue to be favorable, with the
caveat that there will likely be periodic dislocations caused by the
unconventional approach of this Administration in conveying and enacting policy
that affects markets and the economy,” Dan Loeb said in a new investor letter
on Tuesday.
Alphabet shares tumbled 7% after the
Google parent posted
a cloud revenue miss as it ramps up spending on AI, spooking investors
who worried the megacap technology company will take longer to capitalize on
its AI ambitions. Overall revenue for the period also came up short.
AMD shares were also lower by 6% after the
company’s fourth-quarter data
center revenue came up short of expectations.
Elsewhere in tech, Apple ended the session
marginally lower after Bloomberg
News reported that regulators in China were considering launching a
formal investigation into the company’s App Store fees and policies.
Stock market news for Feb. 5, 2025
In other news.
Trump’s China tariff increase will affect Ford and
GM vehicles, billions of dollars in auto parts
Published Wed, Feb 5 2025
DETROIT — President Donald Trump’s move Saturday to
impose 10% additional tariffs on imports from China affects a small number of
U.S. vehicles. But those tariffs are also hitting auto parts, which could
increase already heightened vehicle prices for consumers.
The U.S. in recent years has imported from
about $15.4 billion to more than $17.5 billion worth of transportation goods
from China each year, including $9 billion to $10 billion per year in auto
parts and accessories for vehicles and tractors, among other special purpose
vehicles, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.
The biggest impact on vehicles will be
on Ford Motor’s Lincoln
Nautilus and General Motors’ Buick
Envision. Those crossovers accounted for 83,884, or 95%, of the 88,515
China-made vehicles that were sold in the U.S. last year.
“It’s mainly GM and Ford that are really
hit from a volume standpoint,” said Jeff Schuster, GlobalData vice president of
automotive research. “Our domestic guys are the ones taking the brunt of this,
at least for full vehicles ... but it can be muted to some extent.”
Other carmakers such as Volvo, which is
owned by China’s Geely and its electric vehicle spin-off Polestar, import far fewer
vehicles to the U.S. They’ve also changed production plans to reduce the number
of vehicles being imported from China. That’s especially true for EVs, given
the Biden administration’s 100%
tariff last year on such models from China.
Ford incoming CFO Sherry House said
Wednesday the automaker will “assess the situation” of tariffs on China goods
“as it plays out, including the response from China, and evaluate whether or
not it affects” the company’s import and export strategy.
Spokespeople for Ford and GM declined to
comment on potential changes to production or prices for their China-made
vehicles. Volvo and Polestar did not respond.
More
Trump China tariffs will affect Ford, GM vehicles and auto parts
Google opens its most powerful AI models to
everyone, the next stage in its virtual agent push
Published Wed, Feb 5 2025 11:00 AM EST
Google on Wednesday released
Gemini 2.0 — its “most capable” artificial intelligence model suite yet
— to everyone.
In December, the company gave
access to developers and trusted testers, as well as wrapping some
features into Google products, but this is a “general release,” according to
Google.
The suite of models includes 2.0 Flash,
which is billed as a “workhorse model, optimal for high-volume, high-frequency
tasks at scale,” as well as 2.0 Pro Experimental for coding performance, and
2.0 Flash-Lite, which the company calls its “most cost-efficient model yet.”
Gemini Flash costs developers 10 cents per
million tokens for text, image and video inputs, while Flash-Lite, its more
cost-effective version, costs 0.75 of a cent for the same. Tokens refer to each
individual unit of data that the model processes.
The continued releases are part of a
broader strategy for Google of investing heavily into AI agents as the AI
arms race heats up among tech giants and startups alike.
Meta,
Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI
and Anthropic are also moving toward agentic AI, or models that can complete
complex multistep tasks on a user’s behalf, rather than a user having to walk
them through every individual step.
“Over the last year, we have been
investing in developing more agentic models, meaning they can understand more
about the world around you, think multiple steps ahead, and take action on your
behalf, with your supervision,” Google wrote in a December blog post, adding that Gemini 2.0 has “new advances in
multimodality — like native image and audio output — and native tool use,” and
that the family of models “will enable us to build new AI agents that bring us
closer to our vision of a universal assistant.”
More
Google opens Gemini 2.0, its most powerful AI model, to everyone
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fed
officials are raising concerns about the impact Trump’s tariffs could have on
inflation
Published
Wed, Feb 5 20255:10 PM EST
Federal
Reserve officials take great pains not to comment on fiscal policy, but the
looming threat from tariffs is forcing their hand.
In
recent days, multiple central bank policymakers not only have noted the
uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s desire to slap broad-ranging
duties on products from Canada, Mexico and China — and perhaps the
European Union — they also have highlighted the potential impact on inflation.
Any
indication that the tariffs are presenting longer-lasting pressure in prices
could make the Fed hold interest rates higher for longer.
In
remarks at an auto symposium Wednesday in Detroit, Chicago Fed President Austan
Goolsbee cited a number of supply chain threats that include “large tariffs and
the potential for an escalating trade war.”
“If
we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in the
difficult position of trying to figure out if the inflation is coming from
overheating or if it’s coming from tariffs,” Goolsbee said. “That distinction
will be critical for deciding when or even if the Fed should act.”
On
Jan. 29, the Federal Open Market Committee, of which Goolsbee is a voting
member, voted
to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 4.25% to
4.50% as it evaluates the evolving set of economic conditions.
The
vote came amid a backdrop of gamesmanship between Trump and its largest U.S.
trading partners, in which he postponed levies against Canada and Mexico but
added 10% in tariffs against China, which retaliated
with its own measures.
Economists
generally see tariffs as having one-time impacts on prices, affecting
particular goods where the duties are targeted but not acting as more
widespread and more fundamental drivers of inflation. However, in this case
Trump is casting a wide enough net that it could generate the kind of
underlying inflation the Fed fears.
More
Fed
officials are raising concerns about Trump's tariffs and inflation
Tariffs
would have, and still could, cause a recession, chief economist says
Eric
Lascelles explains how Canadian advisors can help navigate uncertainty while
the economy is used as a bargaining chip
Feb
04, 2025
Despite
a last-minute decision to delay
their implementation by 30 days, Canada would enter a recession if
Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs end up as a long-term policy, says Eric Lascelles
Chief Economist at RBC Global Asset Management. The policy, which had been set
to take effect today, as well as retaliatory tariffs by Canada could see our
country’s GDP plunge. The US would likely face a growth setback, too, but
Lascelles doesn’t believe it would put that country into a recession. Lascelles
offers a bit of optimism, however, noting that these tariffs may not be
implemented after all. Even if they are eventually made policy, he believes
they might not last.
“I'd
be surprised if tariffs of that magnitude were in place several months from
now. I'm of the view that these tariff threats are useful for exacting
concessions from countries like Canada,” Lascelles says. “But, ultimately, it
would be ill advised to keep them in place, as per some of the economic damage
that that would accrue.”
Should
tariffs be implemented eventually, with a subsequent deal reached, Lascelles
believes the economic impact would be more akin to a natural disaster — where
we see a big drop in GDP for a short time, followed by a relatively quick
recovery from that initial shock and a broad softening of the impact over the
long-term.
In
the wake of these potential tariffs, Lascelles outlined what the broad economic
outlook for Canada and the US might be. He explained how central banks might
react as tariffs conspire to increase inflation while eroding growth for both
the US and Canada. He outlined what impacts we may expect to see across the
Canadian economy and highlighted where these tariffs will be most acutely felt.
In
terms of geography, Lascelles notes that Ontario and Quebec are likely the most
exposed to these tariffs, given their high degree of economic
interconnectedness with the US. B.C. may be somewhat more insulated due to its
Asia Pacific trade links while Alberta’s energy exports are set to face a lower
rate of tariffs, which might soften the blow for that province.
Larger
companies, Lascelles said, may be more immediately impacted given the tendency
for bigger companies to require inputs from across the border. Companies in
relatively inelastic sectors, too, should be somewhat more insulated by the
demand for their products. Key inputs may continue to see demand despite
tariffs, with costs largely passed on to US consumers. “There’s reason to think
that a big chunk of the oil tariff will be paid by US drivers and not Alberta
oil producers,” Lascelles says. Conversely, he predicts Canadian purveyors of
discretionary goods to take more of a hit.
More
Tariffs would
have, and still could, cause a recession, chief economist says | Wealth
Professional
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Alzheimer's disease risk could be raised if you contracted Covid, new
study says
4 February 2025
A warning has been issued
by scientists as new research suggests that even a mild case of Covid-19 could
increase the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease. The study, published
in Nature Medicine, found that the virus could alter brain proteins
associated with the condition, sparking public health concerns.
The research involved
analysing blood samples from 1,252 UK participants, half of whom had tested
positive for Covid. The study found
significant changes in brain biomarkers linked to Alzheimer's disease in those
who had contracted the virus.
According to Medical News, scientists measured levels of beta-amyloid (Aβ40, Aβ42), pTau-181, NfL,
and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), which are all markers of
Alzheimer’s disease. They also assessed the brain health of participants using
neuroimaging data and testing cognitive function.
It was found that those
who had Covid-19 displayed significant changes in brain biomarkers associated
with Alzheimer’s disease. Covid positive participants had a reduced ratio of
Aβ42:Aβ40, which is often linked to Alzheimer’s pathology.
The team found increased
levels of pTau-181, a protein associated with tau tangles in the brain, and
elevated NfL levels, which indicated neuronal damage in Covid patients. And
GFAP, a marker of astrocyte activation and neuroinflammation, was also higher
in those who had Covid.
These changes are said to
be on par with four years of natural aging or 60 percent of the impact of
carrying one APOE-ε4 allele, a genetic marker associated with a higher risk of
Alzheimer’s disease. This adds to previous evidence that viral infections could
heighten dementia risks.
The study's authors
stated: "SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with biomarkers associated
with β-amyloid pathology: reduced plasma Aβ42:Aβ40 ratio and, in more
vulnerable participants, lower plasma Aβ42 and higher plasma pTau-181. The
plasma biomarker changes were greater in participants who had been hospitalized
with Covid-19 or had reported hypertension previously.
"We showed that the
changes in biomarkers were linked to brain structural imaging patterns
associated with Alzheimer’s disease, lower cognitive test scores and poorer
overall health evaluations. Our data from this post hoc case–control matched
study thus provide observational biomarker evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection
can be associated with greater brain β-amyloid pathology in older adults."
They further commented:
"While these results do not establish causality, they suggest that
SARS-CoV-2 (and possibly other systemic inflammatory diseases) may increase the
risk of future Alzheimer’s disease."
Alzheimer's disease risk could be raised if you contracted Covid, new
study says
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Toyota to set
up wholly owned EV, battery unit in China
5
February 2025
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Toyota Motor will establish a wholly owned company in Shanghai to
develop and produce electric vehicles and batteries for the Lexus brand, with
production set to start in 2027, the world's top-selling automaker said on
Wednesday.
In a
statement, Toyota said the unit would develop a new Lexus EV and that initial
production capacity would be about 100,000 units a year. About 1,000 new jobs
are planned in the start-up phase, it said.
Toyota
also said it would partner with the Shanghai municipal government for
carbon-neutral initiatives, aiming to "contribute to the Chinese
government's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060".
Toyota to set up
wholly owned EV, battery unit in China
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
elderly are useless eaters.
Henry A. Kissinger.
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