Thursday, 6 February 2025

Stocks, The Great Disconnect Gets Wider. Tariffs? What Tariffs?

Baltic Dry Index. 771 +18            Brent Crude 74.80

Spot Gold 2889               US 2 Year Yield 4.17 -0.04  

US Federal Debt. 36.443 trillion!

In the stock casinos, The Great Disconnect from a souring global economy is alive and thriving. What could possibly go wrong?

Look away from that falling oil price now.

Asia-Pacific markets trade mostly higher, shrugging off a week of trade turmoil

Updated Thu, Feb 6 2025 11:12 PM EST

Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher Thursday, tracking gains on Wall Street as investors shrug off a week of trade turmoil and a slew of disappointing U.S. tech earnings.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded 1.14% higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.46%, while the Topix added 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.93% and teh small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.09%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.31%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.14%.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 was down 0.16%, while the BSE Sensex traded around the flatline.

India’s central bank is expected to cut benchmark interest rates in its policy meeting that’s underway, as it strives to stimulate a faltering economy. The decision will be out on Friday.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major indexes posted gains for the second day in a row, even as notable technology stocks Alphabet and AMD posted steep losses following earnings.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 317.24 points, or 0.71%, to 44,873.28. The index’s gains were led by a sharp advance in Nvidia. The S&P 500 rose 0.39%, ending at 6,061.48. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19%, closing at 19,692.33.

Nvidia jumped more than 5% after server maker Super Micro Computer announced full production availability of its artificial intelligence data center with Nvidia’s Blackwell platform. Super Micro shares rose around 8% following the announcement.

Asia-Pacific markets live: RBI meeting, Nvidia

European markets edge towards positive open ahead of earnings, Bank of England rate decision

Updated Thu, Feb 6 2025 12:22 AM EST

European markets are heading for a positive open on Thursday, with investors awaiting more earnings reports and the latest monetary policy decision from the Bank of England.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 53 points higher at 8,672, Germany’s DAX up 92 points at 21,640, France’s CAC up 26 points at 7,905 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 70 points higher at 36,772, according to data from IG.

Earnings are set to come from INGArcelorMittalCarlsbergAstraZenecaØrstedVinciL’OrealSiemens HealthineersTelenorSociete Generale and Maersk.

The Bank of England is expected to deliver its first interest rate cut of the year when policymakers meet on Thursday.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher overnight, tracking gains on Wall Street Wednesday as investors shrugged off a week of trade turbulence. U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night after the major U.S. averages posted back-to-back winning sessions.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings

Dow closes 300 points higher for back-to-back gains as investors look past tariff tumult: Live updates

Updated Wed, Feb 5 2025 4:27 PM EST

Stocks rallied on Wednesday, pushing the major averages higher for the second day in a row, as investors looked past the trade turmoil that weighed on the market earlier in the week.

The gains came even as notable technology stocks Alphabet and AMD posted steep losses following earnings.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 317.24 points, or 0.71%, to 44,873.28. The index’s gains were led by a sharp advance in Nvidia. The S&P 500 rose 0.39%, ending at 6,061.48. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19%, closing at 19,692.33.

Nvidia jumped more than 5% after server maker Super Micro Computer announced full production availability of its artificial intelligence data center with Nvidia’s Blackwell platform. Super Micro shares rose around 8% following the announcement.

Amgen also helped the Dow’s advance in the session, as the stock jumped 6% on the heels of its better-than-expected adjusted earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter.

The Dow, along with the two other major averages, tumbled on Monday after the U.S. unveiled a 10% levy on Chinese imports over the weekend. But the benchmarks started to turn around later during that trading day and have continued that trend into Tuesday, which also saw China retaliate with tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. goods.

“Overall, Third Point expects the environment for investing in equities to continue to be favorable, with the caveat that there will likely be periodic dislocations caused by the unconventional approach of this Administration in conveying and enacting policy that affects markets and the economy,” Dan Loeb said in a new investor letter on Tuesday.

Alphabet shares tumbled 7% after the Google parent posted a cloud revenue miss as it ramps up spending on AI, spooking investors who worried the megacap technology company will take longer to capitalize on its AI ambitions. Overall revenue for the period also came up short.

AMD shares were also lower by 6% after the company’s fourth-quarter data center revenue came up short of expectations.

Elsewhere in tech, Apple ended the session marginally lower after Bloomberg News reported that regulators in China were considering launching a formal investigation into the company’s App Store fees and policies.

Stock market news for Feb. 5, 2025

In other news.

Trump’s China tariff increase will affect Ford and GM vehicles, billions of dollars in auto parts

Published Wed, Feb 5 2025

DETROIT — President Donald Trump’s move Saturday to impose 10% additional tariffs on imports from China affects a small number of U.S. vehicles. But those tariffs are also hitting auto parts, which could increase already heightened vehicle prices for consumers.

The U.S. in recent years has imported from about $15.4 billion to more than $17.5 billion worth of transportation goods from China each year, including $9 billion to $10 billion per year in auto parts and accessories for vehicles and tractors, among other special purpose vehicles, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

The biggest impact on vehicles will be on Ford Motor’s Lincoln Nautilus and General Motors’ Buick Envision. Those crossovers accounted for 83,884, or 95%, of the 88,515 China-made vehicles that were sold in the U.S. last year.

“It’s mainly GM and Ford that are really hit from a volume standpoint,” said Jeff Schuster, GlobalData vice president of automotive research. “Our domestic guys are the ones taking the brunt of this, at least for full vehicles ... but it can be muted to some extent.”

Other carmakers such as Volvo, which is owned by China’s Geely and its electric vehicle spin-off Polestar, import far fewer vehicles to the U.S. They’ve also changed production plans to reduce the number of vehicles being imported from China. That’s especially true for EVs, given the Biden administration’s 100% tariff last year on such models from China.

Ford incoming CFO Sherry House said Wednesday the automaker will “assess the situation” of tariffs on China goods “as it plays out, including the response from China, and evaluate whether or not it affects” the company’s import and export strategy.

Spokespeople for Ford and GM declined to comment on potential changes to production or prices for their China-made vehicles. Volvo and Polestar did not respond.

More

Trump China tariffs will affect Ford, GM vehicles and auto parts

Google opens its most powerful AI models to everyone, the next stage in its virtual agent push

Published Wed, Feb 5 2025 11:00 AM EST

Google on Wednesday released Gemini 2.0 — its “most capable” artificial intelligence model suite yet — to everyone.

In December, the company gave access to developers and trusted testers, as well as wrapping some features into Google products, but this is a “general release,” according to Google.

The suite of models includes 2.0 Flash, which is billed as a “workhorse model, optimal for high-volume, high-frequency tasks at scale,” as well as 2.0 Pro Experimental for coding performance, and 2.0 Flash-Lite, which the company calls its “most cost-efficient model yet.”

Gemini Flash costs developers 10 cents per million tokens for text, image and video inputs, while Flash-Lite, its more cost-effective version, costs 0.75 of a cent for the same. Tokens refer to each individual unit of data that the model processes.

The continued releases are part of a broader strategy for Google of investing heavily into AI agents as the AI arms race heats up among tech giants and startups alike.

Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI and Anthropic are also moving toward agentic AI, or models that can complete complex multistep tasks on a user’s behalf, rather than a user having to walk them through every individual step.

“Over the last year, we have been investing in developing more agentic models, meaning they can understand more about the world around you, think multiple steps ahead, and take action on your behalf, with your supervision,” Google wrote in a December blog post, adding that Gemini 2.0 has “new advances in multimodality — like native image and audio output — and native tool use,” and that the family of models “will enable us to build new AI agents that bring us closer to our vision of a universal assistant.”

More

Google opens Gemini 2.0, its most powerful AI model, to everyone

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Fed officials are raising concerns about the impact Trump’s tariffs could have on inflation

Published Wed, Feb 5 20255:10 PM EST

Federal Reserve officials take great pains not to comment on fiscal policy, but the looming threat from tariffs is forcing their hand.

In recent days, multiple central bank policymakers not only have noted the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s desire to slap broad-ranging duties on products from Canada, Mexico and China — and perhaps the European Union — they also have highlighted the potential impact on inflation.

Any indication that the tariffs are presenting longer-lasting pressure in prices could make the Fed hold interest rates higher for longer.

In remarks at an auto symposium Wednesday in Detroit, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cited a number of supply chain threats that include “large tariffs and the potential for an escalating trade war.”

“If we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in the difficult position of trying to figure out if the inflation is coming from overheating or if it’s coming from tariffs,” Goolsbee said. “That distinction will be critical for deciding when or even if the Fed should act.”

On Jan. 29, the Federal Open Market Committee, of which Goolsbee is a voting member, voted to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.50% as it evaluates the evolving set of economic conditions.

The vote came amid a backdrop of gamesmanship between Trump and its largest U.S. trading partners, in which he postponed levies against Canada and Mexico but added 10% in tariffs against China, which retaliated with its own measures.

Economists generally see tariffs as having one-time impacts on prices, affecting particular goods where the duties are targeted but not acting as more widespread and more fundamental drivers of inflation. However, in this case Trump is casting a wide enough net that it could generate the kind of underlying inflation the Fed fears.

More

Fed officials are raising concerns about Trump's tariffs and inflation

Tariffs would have, and still could, cause a recession, chief economist says

Eric Lascelles explains how Canadian advisors can help navigate uncertainty while the economy is used as a bargaining chip

Feb 04, 2025

Despite a last-minute decision to delay their implementation by 30 days, Canada would enter a recession if Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs end up as a long-term policy, says Eric Lascelles Chief Economist at RBC Global Asset Management. The policy, which had been set to take effect today, as well as retaliatory tariffs by Canada could see our country’s GDP plunge. The US would likely face a growth setback, too, but Lascelles doesn’t believe it would put that country into a recession. Lascelles offers a bit of optimism, however, noting that these tariffs may not be implemented after all. Even if they are eventually made policy, he believes they might not last.

“I'd be surprised if tariffs of that magnitude were in place several months from now. I'm of the view that these tariff threats are useful for exacting concessions from countries like Canada,” Lascelles says. “But, ultimately, it would be ill advised to keep them in place, as per some of the economic damage that that would accrue.”

Should tariffs be implemented eventually, with a subsequent deal reached, Lascelles believes the economic impact would be more akin to a natural disaster — where we see a big drop in GDP for a short time, followed by a relatively quick recovery from that initial shock and a broad softening of the impact over the long-term.

In the wake of these potential tariffs, Lascelles outlined what the broad economic outlook for Canada and the US might be. He explained how central banks might react as tariffs conspire to increase inflation while eroding growth for both the US and Canada. He outlined what impacts we may expect to see across the Canadian economy and highlighted where these tariffs will be most acutely felt.

In terms of geography, Lascelles notes that Ontario and Quebec are likely the most exposed to these tariffs, given their high degree of economic interconnectedness with the US. B.C. may be somewhat more insulated due to its Asia Pacific trade links while Alberta’s energy exports are set to face a lower rate of tariffs, which might soften the blow for that province.

Larger companies, Lascelles said, may be more immediately impacted given the tendency for bigger companies to require inputs from across the border. Companies in relatively inelastic sectors, too, should be somewhat more insulated by the demand for their products. Key inputs may continue to see demand despite tariffs, with costs largely passed on to US consumers. “There’s reason to think that a big chunk of the oil tariff will be paid by US drivers and not Alberta oil producers,” Lascelles says. Conversely, he predicts Canadian purveyors of discretionary goods to take more of a hit.

More

Tariffs would have, and still could, cause a recession, chief economist says | Wealth Professional

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Alzheimer's disease risk could be raised if you contracted Covid, new study says

4 February 2025

A warning has been issued by scientists as new research suggests that even a mild case of Covid-19 could increase the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease. The study, published in Nature Medicine, found that the virus could alter brain proteins associated with the condition, sparking public health concerns.

The research involved analysing blood samples from 1,252 UK participants, half of whom had tested positive for Covid. The study found significant changes in brain biomarkers linked to Alzheimer's disease in those who had contracted the virus.

According to Medical News, scientists measured levels of beta-amyloid (Aβ40, Aβ42), pTau-181, NfL, and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), which are all markers of Alzheimer’s disease. They also assessed the brain health of participants using neuroimaging data and testing cognitive function.

It was found that those who had Covid-19 displayed significant changes in brain biomarkers associated with Alzheimer’s disease. Covid positive participants had a reduced ratio of Aβ42:Aβ40, which is often linked to Alzheimer’s pathology.

The team found increased levels of pTau-181, a protein associated with tau tangles in the brain, and elevated NfL levels, which indicated neuronal damage in Covid patients. And GFAP, a marker of astrocyte activation and neuroinflammation, was also higher in those who had Covid.

These changes are said to be on par with four years of natural aging or 60 percent of the impact of carrying one APOE-ε4 allele, a genetic marker associated with a higher risk of Alzheimer’s disease. This adds to previous evidence that viral infections could heighten dementia risks.

The study's authors stated: "SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with biomarkers associated with β-amyloid pathology: reduced plasma Aβ42:Aβ40 ratio and, in more vulnerable participants, lower plasma Aβ42 and higher plasma pTau-181. The plasma biomarker changes were greater in participants who had been hospitalized with Covid-19 or had reported hypertension previously.

"We showed that the changes in biomarkers were linked to brain structural imaging patterns associated with Alzheimer’s disease, lower cognitive test scores and poorer overall health evaluations. Our data from this post hoc case–control matched study thus provide observational biomarker evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection can be associated with greater brain β-amyloid pathology in older adults."

They further commented: "While these results do not establish causality, they suggest that SARS-CoV-2 (and possibly other systemic inflammatory diseases) may increase the risk of future Alzheimer’s disease."

Alzheimer's disease risk could be raised if you contracted Covid, new study says

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Toyota to set up wholly owned EV, battery unit in China

5 February 2025

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toyota Motor will establish a wholly owned company in Shanghai to develop and produce electric vehicles and batteries for the Lexus brand, with production set to start in 2027, the world's top-selling automaker said on Wednesday.

In a statement, Toyota said the unit would develop a new Lexus EV and that initial production capacity would be about 100,000 units a year. About 1,000 new jobs are planned in the start-up phase, it said.

Toyota also said it would partner with the Shanghai municipal government for carbon-neutral initiatives, aiming to "contribute to the Chinese government's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060".

Toyota to set up wholly owned EV, battery unit in China

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

The elderly are useless eaters.

Henry A. Kissinger.

No comments:

Post a Comment