Baltic
Dry Index. 815 +22 Brent
Crude 74.66
Spot
Gold 2861 U S 2 Year Yield 4.29 +0.08
US
Federal Debt. 36.452 trillion.
Basically,
the single-most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power.
Warren Buffett.
In the stock casinos,
rising worry. Fear that US inflation will rise once again. Worry that the (highly questionable) jobs
report suggests that the Biden boom is rolling over. Concern that the US consumer
debt bubble is unsustainable.
Not that the US
Federal Debt bubble is sustainable, especially with rising US T. Bond yields.
Rising worries too,
over Trump’s tariff wars, with more tariffs promised for next week.
In the stock casinos,
what if 2024 was as good as it gets?
Dow
closes 400 points lower Friday as inflation and tariff fears spur a sell-off:
Live updates
Updated
Fri, Feb 7 2025 4:39 PM EST
Stocks slid on Friday as a mix of news related to
tariffs and inflation worried traders to close out the week.
Major benchmarks took a leg lower during the session
after President Donald Trump said
he was planning reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. This could mean raising
tariff levels across the board to equal rates charged to the U.S.
The Dow
Jones Industrial Average fell 444.23 points, or 0.99%, to close at
44,303.40. The S&P 500 declined
0.95% to 6,025.99, and the Nasdaq
Composite slid 1.36% to end at 19,523.40. Friday’s losses left the
major averages in negative territory on the week.
“I’ll be announcing that next week reciprocal trade,
so that we’re treated evenly with other countries,” said Trump during a meeting
with the visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru
Ishiba. “We’ll have a news conference, and we’ll lay it out pretty simple.”
The stock market was already on edge before the
Trump comments as some earlier consumer sentiment and jobs data pointed to a
pickup in inflation and spiked the 10-year Treasury yield above
4.5% at its session high.
Consumer sentiment fell
in February to 67.8, according to a preliminary reading of the University
of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. Economists polled by Dow Jones had
expected 71.3.
But perhaps more concerning was that the report’s
respondents anticipate the one-year inflation rate to hit 4.3%, marking a rise
of one percentage point from the previous month and its highest level since
November 2023.
Also released on Friday, January’s jobs report showed the
unemployment rate fell to 4% from 4.1% and that average hourly earnings last
month were higher than expected.
Amazon lost
4% after guidance from the e-commerce giant disappointed investors. The company
called for revenue growth of 5% to 9% in the first quarter, its weakest
growth on record. The outlook overshadowed top- and bottom-line beats in
the fourth quarter. Alphabet continued
to fall following somewhat-disappointing results earlier in the week.
“We’ve just had some disappointments in the
traditionally non-disappointing tech or ‘Magnificent Seven’ areas, and so I
think we’re seeing some rotation away from those groups,” said Sam Stovall,
chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “I don’t think that we’re heading
for a bear market but rather just probably heading for some volatility and
short-term disappointment.”
It has been a volatile week. Stocks fell on Monday
after President Donald Trump over
the weekend announced 10% tariffs on China. He also proposed, then later
paused, 25% levies on Canada and Mexico. The S&P 500 then gained for three
straight days on the tariff reprieve before falling again on Friday.
Stocks
finish Friday’s session in negative territory
Stocks closed out the first trading week of February
in negative territory.
The Dow
Jones Industrial Average closed 444.23 points, or 0.99%, lower to
finish at 44,303.40. The S&P
500 dropped 0.95% to finish at 6,025.99, and the Nasdaq Composite declined
1.36% to settle at 19,523.40.
Stock
market news for Feb. 7, 2025
U.S.
economy added just 143,000 jobs in January but unemployment rate fell to 4%
Published
Fri, Feb 7 20258:31 AM EST
Job
creation was weaker than expected in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
Friday.
Nonfarm
payrolls rose
by a seasonally adjusted 143,000 for the month, down from an upwardly revised
307,000 in December and below the 169,000 forecast from Dow Jones. The
unemployment rate nudged lower to 4%.
The
report also featured significant benchmark revisions to the 2024 totals that
saw substantial downward changes to the previous payrolls level.
The
revisions, which the BLS does each year, reduced the jobs count by 589,000 in
the 12 months through March 2024. A preliminary adjustment back in August 2024
had indicated 818,000 fewer jobs.
The
level of those reporting at work, as computed in the household survey, soared
by 2.23 million, the product of annual adjustments for population and
immigration in the country. The household survey happens separately from the
establishment survey used to tally total jobs.
Job
growth for January was concentrated in health care (44,000), retail (34,000)
and government (32,000). The total gain for the month was slightly off the
average 166,000 in 2024, the BLS said. Social assistance added 22,000 while
mining-related industries lost 8,000.
The
unemployment rate moved lower as labor force participation increased, rising to
62.6%, up 0.1 percentage point from December. A broader measure that includes
discouraged workers as well as those holding part-time jobs for economic
reasons held steady at 7.5%.
Markets
showed little reaction to the report, with stock market futures modestly
positive and Treasury yields higher as well.
While
some economists had expected that the California wildfires would reduce the job
count, the bureau said they “had no discernible effect” on the total.
The
report is the first jobs count since President Donald Trump took office on Jan.
20 with plans to cut taxes, boost growth and level the global playing field on
trade by slapping heavy tariffs on the biggest U.S. trading partners.
Federal
Reserve officials are watching the numbers closely as they contemplate their
next monetary policy moves. The Fed cut its benchmark rate by a full percentage
point in the latter part of 2024, but policymakers of late have been advocating
a more cautious pace ahead as they evaluate policy ramifications.
The
Growing Threat to America’s Booming Economy
By David
Rovella February 7, 2025 at 11:02 PM
GMT
The miracle that is the post-pandemic
US economy keeps chugging along, but there’s a big problem just below
the surface, and it’s only getting bigger: debt. Outstanding US
consumer debt surged by the most on record in December, reflecting
massive increases in credit-card balances and non-revolving credit.
Total credit jumped $40.8 billion, according to Federal Reserve data
released Friday. The figure, which isn’t adjusted for inflation, topped all estimates
in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Outstanding credit-card and other revolving
debt increased $22.9 billion in December, more than reversing the prior
month’s decline. Non-revolving credit, such as loans for vehicle purchases
and school tuition, climbed $18 billion, the most in two years. The delinquency
rate has risen, too, with some 3.5% of card balances past due by 30 or more
days and 1.8% of accounts delinquent. Both figures are more than double the
post-pandemic lows recorded in 2021. —David
E. Rovella
The
Growing Threat to America’s Booming Economy: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
In other news.
China
lashes out at US 'coercion' after Panama declines to renew infrastructure
agreement
7 February 2025
China on Friday
lashed out at what it called U.S. “coercion” after Panama declined to renew a key infrastructure
agreement with Beijing following
Washington’s threat to take back the Panama Canal.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a
briefing that China “firmly opposes the U.S. smearing and undermining the Belt
and Road cooperation through means of pressure and coercion.”
The Belt and Road Initiative is President Xi
Jinping’s signature foreign police drive to bind China closer to countries in
the region and beyond by building roads, railways, airports, power plants and
other infrastructure. The program has completed some major projects but also
raised concerns about debt and environmental impact.
Panama’s decision to walk away from it was seen as a
concession to the U.S. over the canal after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
warned Panamanian leader José Raúl Mulino on Sunday that Panama must
immediately reduce what President Donald Trump says is Chinese influence over
the canal area or face potential retaliation from the United States.
Mulino has rejected pressure from the new U.S.
government to discuss ownership of a waterway that is vital to global trade.
Despite that, some believe Panama may be open to a
compromise under which canal operations on both sides are taken away from the
Hong Kong-based Hutchison Ports company, which was given a 25-year no-bid
extension to run them. An audit into the suitability of that extension is
already underway and could lead to a rebidding process.
A drop in water levels in the canal due to drought
has slowed transit through the canal, raising further complaints from Trump,
although the delays appear to have nothing to do with China.
Lin said the Belt and Road Initiative has brought
“active participation” from over 150 countries and that it has brought
“fruitful results” to Panama and China, but gave no examples.
“We hope Panama will bear in mind the general
picture of bilateral relationship and the long-term interests of both peoples,
resist external interference, and make the right decision,” Lin said.
China lashes out at US 'coercion' after Panama declines to renew
infrastructure agreement
Panama
slaps down Trump administration's claim about free passage for U.S. ships
6 February 2025
The Panamanian government on Wednesday slapped down
claims being made by the Trump administration that it had agreed to grant free
passage for United States military ships through the Panama Canal.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Panama is denying the State Department's claim that American
ships would have access to the canal "without charge fees, saving the U.S.
government millions of dollars a year."
The issue, according to the Journal, is that giving
American military ships a free pass through the canal would likely violate
treaty commitments that the government made in the past.
"Panama still needs to find a way to allow free
passage without breaching a neutrality clause banning preferential treatment
for any country, people familiar with the discussions said," reports the
Journal. "The canal’s administrator, Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, told The
Wall Street Journal last month that breaching the neutrality treaty would
lead to chaos."
The State Department's announcement blindsided
Panama, writes the Journal, and has caused an uproar from many politicians in
the country who are demanding to know why they were not informed of any such
agreement taking place.
Trump ally Laura Loomer reacted to the statement on
social media, saying simply, "Panama is now DENYING a statement released
by the US State Department tonight that Panama has eliminated charge fees for
U.S. government vessels to use the canal" along with some eyeball emojis.
Panama slaps down Trump administration's claim about free passage for
U.S. ships
German
exports and imports fell in 2024, despite December uptick
7 February 2025
German exports fell in 2024, despite an uptick in
sales abroad during the final month of December, according to new figures
released by Germany's Federal Statistical Office on Friday.
German exports with a total value of €1.56 trillion
($1.62 trillion) were delivered abroad over the course of 2024, down 1.0% from
the total in 2023.
According to figures from the Federal Statistical
Office, imports to Germany fell even more sharply, down 2.8% year-on-year to
€1.32 trillion.
China's aggressive industrial policy is affecting
the export industry, as is the fact that US President Donald Trump appears to
be making good on his trade threats and imposing tariffs on imports into the
important US market.
In the final quarter of 2024, exports were one of
the brakes on the German economy, which was stuck in recession. Exports of
"Made in Germany" goods were "significantly lower" than in
the previous quarter, the agency recently stated.
In December, however, exports rose compared to both
the previous month of November (up 2.9%) and compared to December 2023 (up
3.4%), reaching a total of €131.7 billion, according to the latest figures from
the Federal Statistical Office.
Imports also increased in December in both
comparisons, hitting €111.1 billion.
The German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services
Association (BGA) had already called 2024 a "lost year" for German
foreign trade, despite such bright spots at the end of the year.
Forecasts for the current year are somewhat dour as
well.
According to the BGA, around 80% of exporters
expected a further decline in volumes and sales in 2025, with the trade
association predicting a 2.7% drop in foreign trade sales based on earlier
figures.
The Munich-based ifo Institute, which regularly
surveys the expectations of business leaders in export-oriented sectors,
recently stated that the outlook is particularly bleak for Germany's important
auto industry.
Expectations in the metal industry have also been
negative for more than a year, according to ifo.
German exports and imports fell in 2024, despite December uptick
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Consumer
inflation fears spike in February as tariff worries hit sentiment
Published
Fri, Feb 7 2025 10:25 AM EST Updated Fri, Feb 7 2025 12:29 PM EST
Consumers grew dramatically more worried about
near-term inflation as President Donald Trump pushed
aggressive tariffs against major U.S. trading partners, a closely watched
survey showed Friday.
The University of Michigan consumer survey for February
showed that respondents expect the inflation rate a year from now to be 4.3%, a
1 percentage point jump from January and the highest level since November 2023.
Though Trump postponed tariffs against Canada and
Mexico, the looming threat of price pass-throughs to consumers shook sentiment.
China has levied retaliatory tariffs following Trump’s move. The survey window
ran from Jan. 21, the day after Trump took office, to Feb. 3.
“Many consumers appear worried that high inflation
will return within the next year,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director.
“This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month
rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations.”
Longer-run expectations weren’t hit as much, with
the five-year outlook drifting up to 3.3%, a 0.1 percentage point gain.
Worries over inflation dovetailed with lower
optimism overall, as the headline index fell to 67.8, a one-month drop of 4.6%
and an 11.8% move lower from the same month a year ago. Economists surveyed by
Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 71.3.
The survey sometimes is influenced by shifting
political winds. However, Hsu noted that declining sentiment was “pervasive,
with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines
from January, along with consumers across age and wealth groups.”
More
Consumer
inflation fears spike in February as tariff worries hit sentiment
Hedge funds
bet Trump trade war will spark global recession
Investors
race to sell shares in North American and European companies amid market
turmoil
04 February 2025
2:06pm GMT
Hedge funds
scrambled to sell shares in North American and European companies last month in
a sign that the world’s top money managers are preparing for a global
recession.
Hedge funds
piled out of stocks which might be vulnerable to an economic slump in January,
according to data from Goldman Sachs, amid growing concerns about market
turmoil and the prospect of a global downturn.
The funds
instead focused on buying shares that are most likely to withstand any incoming
recession, including by picking up stocks that generate reliable returns
regardless of the state of the economy, such as healthcare and utilities
companies.
Bruno Schneller,
of asset manager Erlen Capital Management, said: “The rotation into more
resilient sectors suggests hedge funds are positioning for a potential economic
downturn.”
In January,
hedge funds dumped stocks that rely on “discretionary” spending of extra income
– such as hoteliers, restaurateurs and luxury goods sellers – at their fastest
pace since March 2022, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
More,
subscription required
Hedge funds bet Trump trade war will spark global recession
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
This
weekend something different from Australia. Eggs.
One egg a week lowers heart disease death risk by
29%
By Paul McClure February 04, 2025
A new study has found
that eating between one and six eggs each week significantly reduces the risk
of dying from any cause but particularly from heart disease – even in people
who have been diagnosed with high cholesterol levels.
Whether eating eggs is
good for you is something that has been debated for decades. That they’re packed with beneficial
nutrients, including high-quality protein, is offset by the frequently cited
concern about cholesterol content and its impact on heart disease.
Now, a new study led by
Monash University researchers has revisited the subject of egg consumption,
specifically examining its association with death from heart disease in older
adults, an area in which research is limited.
“Eggs are a
nutrient-dense food, they are a rich source of protein and a good source of
essential nutrients, such as B vitamins, folate, unsaturated fatty acids,
fat-soluble vitamins (E, D, A, and K), choline, and numerous minerals and trace
elements,” said Holly Wild, PhD candidate and lecturer from the Monash
University School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine and the study’s lead
and corresponding author. “Eggs are also an accessible source of protein and
nutrition in older adults, with research suggesting that they are the preferred
source of protein for older adults who might be experiencing age-related
physical and sensory decline.”
---- Participants who fell
into the weekly category of egg consumption, that is, they consumed one to six
eggs per week, had a 29% lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease and a
17% lower risk of dying from any cause compared to those participants who ate
eggs never or infrequently. There was no statistically significant association
between egg consumption and deaths due to cancer.
When the researchers
examined the impact of diet quality on the relationship between egg consumption
and cardiovascular mortality risk, they found that participants who ate a
moderate- and high-quality diet and who consumed eggs weekly demonstrated a 33%
and 44% lower cardiovascular mortality risk compared to those who
never/infrequently consumed eggs.
“Our primary results for
CVD [cardiovascular disease] mortality are maintained for those with moderate
to high dietary quality, with a slightly lowered risk observed for those with a
higher quality diet, suggesting that dietary quality may play a further
protective role in the association between egg consumption and mortality,” the
researchers said.
Interestingly, and in
contrast to the findings of some previous studies, the researchers found that
regardless of the presence of unhealthy cholesterol or fat levels in the blood,
called dyslipidemia, the association between weekly egg consumption and lowered
cardiovascular mortality risk was maintained.
more
Six eggs a week lowers heart disease death
risk by 29%
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
I’ll bet they’ve
never heard of the Moss Landing disaster.
Battery storage facility next to M1 approved despite fire fears
and concerns from residents
Published 6th Feb 2025,
10:12GMT
Plans for a new battery energy storage system (BESS) next to the
M1 motorway in Brinsworth have been approved, despite concerns from residents.
The proposed site, which is currently used for equestrian
purposes, is located between Brinsworth Road
and the M1 motorway. The facility will include five battery clusters,
transformers, a site office, a substation, parking spaces, water tanks, and
safety equipment, all surrounded by a three-metre-high fence and a noise
barrier.
The applicants, Root-Power South, say the facility will help store
up to 40 MW of energy to support the national grid and improve energy
sustainability. The site is planned to be operational for 40 years before being
restored to its original state.
However, the proposal has received 45 letters of objection from
residents, including concerns from Brinsworth Parish Council. A petition with
75 signatures has also been submitted. The main worries raised include fire
safety, loss of green space, increased traffic during construction, noise, and
the site’s proximity to schools.
On the other hand, four letters of support have been submitted,
with supporters arguing that the project is needed to help improve energy
efficiency and sustainability in the UK. They also believe that because the
site is close to the M1, any noise from the facility would be less of an issue,
as it would be drowned out by motorway traffic.
Battery storage
facility next to M1 approved despite fire fears and concerns from
residents
Battery plant fire in Monterey County raises concerns among
residents who oppose project outside Petaluma
Opponents of a Petaluma-area battery storage project say the fire
at Moss Landing Power Plant should be a warning of the dangers of placing such
systems close to communities and sensitive environmental resources.
February 6, 2025, 7:22AM
The recent large
fire at a lithium-ion battery storage facility that
smoldered for days and sent plumes of smoke over Monterey County has rekindled
concerns among local residents who oppose a similar storage plant on Petaluma’s
southeastern outskirts.
Opponents of the local battery storage project say the Jan.
16 fire at Vistra Energy’s Moss Landing Power Plant ‒ one of the
world’s largest battery storage sites ‒ should be a warning of the dangers of
placing such systems close to communities and sensitive environmental
resources.
More, subscription required.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another long-forgotten maestro. Approx. 9 minutes.
Antonio
Vandini: Concerto in D major for Cello, Strings & B.c
Antonio Vandini:
Concerto in D major for Cello, Strings & B.c - YouTube
This
weekend’s maths diversion. Approx 19
minutes.
EVERYONE
HAS MADE MISTAKES | CHALLENGE FOR YOUR BRAIN | PROF. BRUNO COLMENARES
EVERYONE HAS MADE
MISTAKES | CHALLENGE FOR YOUR BRAIN | PROF. BRUNO COLMENARES - YouTube
This
weekend’s final diversion. 1939, the Battle of the River Forth. Approx 16 minutes.
Britain's
First Air Battle: The Untold Story of the Battle of the River Forth
Britain's First
Air Battle: The Untold Story of the Battle of the River Forth - YouTube
Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which
were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to investing: He
lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, 'I can calculate the
movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.' If he had not been
traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the
Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion
increases.
Warren Buffett.
No comments:
Post a Comment