Baltic
Dry Index. 1752 +76
Brent Crude 83.22
Spot Gold 2021 US 2 Year Yield 4.69 +0.05
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
In the global stock casinos, Artificial Intelligence mania. AI, according to the current hype is going to solve all problems for all corporations. Doesn’t anyone remember the Dot con mania?
“Artificial intelligence provides the means to boost
productivity that economies have been seeking for two decades, said Thomas
Hayes, chairman and managing member of Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.
"What Nvidia represents is the
catalyst for the roaring '20s in terms of productivity enhancement moving
forward and as productivity increases, it keeps a lid on inflation," he
said.”
Well maybe or maybe not.
Nvidia
fuels global stock records, bond yields rise
February 22, 2024
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -AI chipmaker Nvidia's stunning results sparked a worldwide wave of record highs in equity markets on Thursday, including the first new peak for Japan's Nikkei since 1989, while bond yields mostly rose as economic data kept immediate hopes of interest rate cuts at bay.
The benchmark S&P 500 index and
Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wall Street, along with Europe's pan-regional
STOXX 600 index and MSCI's all-country world index also hit record highs as
Nvidia's shares surged 16.4% and lifted artificial intelligence-related chip
stocks around the globe.
National bourses in Frankfurt and
Paris set fresh highs too, while Chinese stocks overnight extended their
winning streak to eight straight sessions.
After the bell on Wednesday, Nvidia
forecast a roughly three-fold jump in first-quarter revenue and beat
expectations for fourth-quarter revenue on strong demand for its AI chips.
Nvidia added $277 billion in stock market value, the biggest one-day gain in a
company's market capitalization in history.
Artificial intelligence provides the
means to boost productivity that economies have been seeking for two decades,
said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member of Great Hill Capital LLC in
New York.
"What Nvidia represents is the
catalyst for the roaring '20s in terms of productivity enhancement moving
forward and as productivity increases, it keeps a lid on inflation," he
said.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the
globe rallied 1.67% to set closing and intra-day record highs, while the STOXX
600 index in Europe closed up 0.82% after hitting an all-time high.
The STOXX technology index is up
12.4% year-to-date and is trading at more than 23-year highs. Dutch chipmaking
equipment supplier BESI rose 4.9% to a record after exceeding fourth-quarter
targets on demand for AI-related parts.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 1.18%, to close above 39,000 for the first time. The
S&P 500 advanced 2.11% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.96%. The S&P
500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest single-day gains since January and February
2023, respectively.
The number of Americans filing new
claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating job
growth likely remains solid in February and will reduce the urgency for the
Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.
----The Nikkei has jumped nearly 17% this year, with the
S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallying about 7% and 8%, respectively, driven in large
part by the expectations for AI. Nvidia is at the center of that boom.
Thursday's record-setting charge
included Tokyo Electron jumping 6%, chip-testing equipment maker Advantest
surging 7.5% and another chip-related share, Screen Holdings, rallying more
than 10%.
More
Nvidia
fuels global stock records, bond yields rise (msn.com)
Google
Pauses AI-Made Images of People After Race Inaccuracies
February 22, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- Alphabet Inc.’s Google
said it will pause the image generation of people for Gemini, a powerful
artificial intelligence model, after criticism about how it was handling
race.
“We’re already working to address
recent issues with Gemini’s image generation feature,” Google said in a post on
X on Thursday. “We’re going to pause the image generation of people and will
re-release an improved version soon.”
The misstep comes as Google
has increasingly focused on AI after progress by rivals Microsoft Corp. and
OpenAI potentially threatened its core internet search business. Advances in AI
have led to concerns that the technology will enable deepfakes, misinformation
and bias.
Earlier this week, Google said it was aware Gemini was
offering what it called “inaccuracies in some historical image generation
depictions.”
The move came after critics on X posted numerous examples
from the model that appeared to feature historically inaccurate images in
regards to the race of the subjects.
The updated AI model, called Gemini 1.5 Pro, was released last week to
cloud customers and developers so they can test its new features and eventually
create new commercial applications. Google and its rivals have spent billions
of dollars to ramp up their capabilities in generative AI and are keen to attract
corporate clients to show their investments are paying off.
Google Pauses
AI-Made Images of People After Race Inaccuracies (msn.com)
China markets flat as
investors digest property price data
UPDATED FRI, FEB 23 2024 12:49 AM EST
Asia-Pacific
markets were mixed Friday as investors digested China property price data.
The CSI 300 index was flat by
midday trading after rising about 0.4% at the open, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped
0.2%.
Data showed sales prices of newly built
commercial housing in first-tier cities fell 0.3% month-over-month in January,
with declines narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
At the end of last year, the
country’s troubled property market clocked its worst declines in new home
prices in nearly nine years.
South Korea’s Kospi gained
nearly 0.2%, while the smaller-cap Kosdaq falling 0.14%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 closed
0.43% higher at 7,643.60.
Japan stocks were closed for
trading on Friday for the Emperor’s Birthday holiday. Japan
markets led gains in the previous session, with the Nikkei 225 closing
at a new all-time high of 39,098.68, surpassing the previous
record of 38,915.87 set in 1989.
Wall Street’s main indexes surged on Thursday,
with the S&P 500 hitting
a record high after chip giant Nvidia posted
quarterly results that far exceeded estimates, boosting the tech sector.
The benchmark index
gained 2.11% to close at 5,087.03, its best day since January 2023. The Nasdaq Composite jumped
2.96%, recording its best day since February 2023, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
1.18%, to close above 39,000 for the first time and at a new high of 39,069.11.
Asia markets: Stocks mixed, China house prices dip in January (cnbc.com)
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be
seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly,
one by one."
Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Finally, is a US farm bust coming next?
US farmers face harsh
economics with record corn supplies in silos
By Tom Polansek February 22, 2024 11:34 AM GMT
CHICAGO, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Illinois farmer Dan
Henebry regrets not selling more of his corn crop last summer, when the Midwest
needed rain and prices were high.
He is not alone.
Farmers across the United States are kicking
themselves for putting off corn sales after fields dried up in May and June,
fueling expectations for higher prices and smaller harvests. Instead, prices
tanked as rains saved the crop. The size and speed of the price collapse stung
farmers and left their storage bins stuffed with record amounts of corn.
The steepest market downturn in a decade in 2023
has extended into 2024, hurting the U.S. rural economy. Two years of high
prices and tight crop supplies spurred by unfavorable global weather and
disruption from the Ukraine war have been quickly reversed.
Record-large harvests in the United States and
Brazil, increased competition for U.S. grain exports, and limited domestic
demand led to hefty amounts of corn locked away in storage, pushing U.S. corn
prices to their lowest level since November 2020 on Wednesday.
Corn is the world's most traded commodity crop and
often sets the tone for other crops. Soybeans, too, plummeted to their lowest
prices in more than three years in February.
Ten farmers, economists and market analysts said
U.S. growers miscalculated when they held on to corn rather than booking sales.
The "store and ignore" strategy of waiting for higher prices has not
paid off, leaving some farmers cutting back purchases of pricey equipment and
planting less corn. The interviews also demonstrate the tricky decisions
farmers face when determining when to sell in the face of potential crop
losses.
Corn futures prices that approached $6.30 a bushel
in June have since tumbled to $4.10, after U.S. farmers ultimately produced
record crop yields.
"I wish I sold a lot more," Henebry said.
U.S. growers held a whopping 7.83 billion bushels
of corn in storage bins on their farms as of Dec. 1, the most ever for that
date and up 16% from a nine-year low in December 2022, U.S. government data
show. Globally, leftover inventories are projected to reach a five-year high by
September after accounting for all the corn used to feed livestock, make
biofuels and other purposes.
Henebry said he still has about 40% of his 2023
harvest in storage, including 30,000 bushels on his farm in central Illinois.
He is paying 3 to 4 cents per bushel a month to keep another 30,000 bushels at
a local grain elevator. In a normal year, he would not have any still stored
there, he said.
Before prices plunged last summer, Henebry said he
sold some corn for $5.50 to $5.70 per bushel and then for as much as $6.21 per
bushel delivered to the grain elevator. He held off on further sales because he
was counting on poor weather to reduce production and boost prices.
Prices tumbled, though, and Henebry said he sold
corn in December for $4.60 per bushel. He wishes he would have unloaded even
more at that price.
Prices will come under renewed pressure as farmers
do sell the grain they have in storage, analysts said.
"Any sort of little rally, there's going to be
a lot of corn sold," said Henebry.
More
US farmers face harsh economics with record corn supplies in silos | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Recession
‘already over’ as economic activity picks up again but inflationary pressures
grow
THURSDAY 22 FEBRUARY 2024
9:46 AM
The UK is already
powering away from the shallow recession recorded in the second half of last
year as business activity picked up again in February, a closely watched survey
suggested.
Private sector output
rose to its highest level in nine months in February, surprising economists who
had expected a slight fall in activity.
S&P’s purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) recorded 53.3 in February, rising from the 52.9 recorded
last month. Economists had expected a reading of 52.7.
The survey measures business activity in the private sector.
Anything above 50 indicates business activity is expanding.
The figures suggested that the UK’s
all-important service sector continued to its strong run, remaining at 54.3
while the the manufacturing sector saw a slight improvement to 47.1, up from 47
previously.
Firms surveyed in the service sector
cited a turnaround in business and consumer spending, despite ongoing
cost-of-living pressures, while some also commented on a boost from less
restrictive financial conditions.
Although manufacturing activity
remained mired in downturn, the rate of decline eased to its lowest level since
November. Firms cited a lesser degree of customer destocking, which helped to
stabilise demand.
Across the economy as a whole, new
business volumes increased for the third month running largely due to a “solid
rise” in new work for service providers. Firms in the service sector also saw a
“marked upturn” in new work from abroad.
“UK economic growth
has accelerated in February, with the early PMI survey data pointing to the
largest rise in business activity for nine months,” Chris Williamson, chief
business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said.
“The survey
data point to the economy growing at a
quarterly rate of 0.2-3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, allaying fears
that last year’s downturn will have spilled over into 2024 and suggesting that
the UK’s ‘recession’ is already over,” he continued.
More
Recession 'already over' as economic activity picks up
again (cityam.com)
Germany's economic gloom deepens with cut to growth
forecast
February 21, 2024
BERLIN
(Reuters) -The German government expects the economy to grow 0.2% this year,
far less than a previously forecast 1.3%, as weak global demand, geopolitical
uncertainty and persistently high inflation dent hopes for a swift rebound.
Europe's
largest economy shrank by 0.3% in 2023, making it the world's worst performing
major economy, and it is broadly expected to enter another technical recession
in the first quarter of this year.
"The
situation is challenging, extremely challenging," Economy Minister Robert
Habeck said in a news conference presenting the government's 2024 economic
report.
"We have
to do more ... in order to strengthen and maintain Germany's competitiveness in
a completely changed global environment," he said.
The economy is
set to grow by 1% next year, Habeck said, adding that inflation is expected to
be around 2% in 2025.
The
government's report listed high inflation and a resulting loss of purchasing
power among the challenges, as well as geopolitical crises and interest rate
hikes.
The weakening
global economy was also a reason for the reduced growth forecast, Habeck said.
"The growth
of German GDP is extremely dependent on world trade. Global trade is developing
at a historically low level," he added.
Germany's
economic advisers plan to follow the federal government's lead and reduce their
forecast for economic growth in 2024, adviser Ulrike Malmendier told Reuters in
an interview.
"I think
we will definitely be going in the same direction... that is what our numbers
are indicating," Malmendier said.
The November
forecast of the council of advisers to the government estimated growth would
hit just 0.7% in 2024. The next official update is due in mid-May.
Germany's
difficulties are aggravated by concerns about its attractiveness as a location
for industry, as the government tries to reconcile its strict fiscal rules with
the need to lure investment and fund a costly green transition.
More
Germany's economic gloom deepens with cut to growth
forecast (msn.com)
Fed’s Waller wants more
evidence inflation is cooling before cutting interest rates
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher
Waller said Thursday he will need to see more evidence that inflation is
cooling before he is willing to support interest rate cuts.
In a policy speech delivered in
Minneapolis that concludes with the question, “What’s the rush?” on cutting
rates, the central bank official said higher-than-expected inflation
readings for January raised questions on where prices are
heading and how the Fed should respond.
“Last week’s high reading on CPI inflation may just be a bump in the road,
but it also may be a warning that the considerable progress on inflation over
the past year may be stalling,” Waller said in prepared remarks.
While he said he still expects the
Federal Open Market Committee to begin lowering rates at some point this year,
Waller said he sees “predominately upside risks” to his expectation that
inflation will fall to the Fed’s 2% goal.
He added that there are few signs
inflation will fall below 2% anytime soon based on strong
3.3% annualized growth in gross domestic product and
employment, with few signs of a potential recession in sight. Waller is a
permanent voting member on the FOMC.
“That makes the decision to be
patient on beginning to ease policy simpler than it might be,” Waller said. “I
am going to need to see at least another couple more months of inflation data
before I can judge whether January was a speed bump or a pothole.”
The remarks are consistent with a general sentiment at the central bank that while further rate hikes are unlikely,
the timing and pace of cuts is uncertain.
More
Fed's
Waller wants more evidence inflation is cooling before cutting interest rates
(cnbc.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Are COVID-19 vaccines riskier than we thought? New
study points at terrifying links to brain, heart, and blood disorders
New
study raises concerns about COVID-19 vaccine safety, highlighting potential
risks of brain, heart, and blood disorders.
February 22, 2024 12:06 IST
The COVID-19
vaccines once hailed as a beacon of hope in combating the deadly virus during
the pandemic, have resurfaced in headlines due to a recent study linking them
to uncommon brain, heart, and blood disorders, as reported by the science
journal Vaccine last week.
The journal reported
that researchers from the Global Vaccine Data Network, a research division of
the World Health Organization, discovered that the COVID-19 vaccines
exacerbated 13 medical conditions categorized as “adverse events of special
interest.”
The study,
conducted on 99 million vaccinated individuals from eight countries—Argentina,
Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, and
Scotland—revealed that those who received specific types of mRNA vaccines
showed an elevated risk of myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle.
Uncommon occurrences of
myocarditis, characterized by inflammation of the heart, were identified
following administration of the first, second, and third doses of Pfizer-BioNTech’s and Moderna’s mRNA vaccines.
Forbes, citing the study, noted the highest incidence after the second dose of
the Moderna vaccine, with a 6.1-fold increase compared to expected rates.
Similarly, individuals
who received the third dose of AstraZeneca’s vaccine faced an elevated risk of
pericarditis, another cardiac condition, with up to a 6.9-fold increase. The
study also documented increased risks of 1.7 times and 2.6 times for recipients
of Moderna’s first and fourth doses, respectively.
Moreover, the research
highlighted a heightened risk of developing Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare
autoimmune disorder, among AstraZeneca vaccine recipients, who faced a 3.2
times higher risk of blood clots.
Regarding
neurological disorders, recipients of the Moderna vaccine were found to have a
3.8 times greater risk of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, while those who
received AstraZeneca’s vaccine faced a 2.2-fold increased risk.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, more on the danger from Li-ion
batteries. Note that after two days of firefighting, the fire was only under
control but not out. I wonder how much cadmium got released in the fire and
where it went?
Fire at
French battery recycling plant under control
February 19, 2024
PARIS
(Reuters) -A fire at a battery recycling plant in southern France is under
control, though burning, the local firefighters service said on Monday, two
days after the blaze began.
The fire broke
out in a warehouse containing 900 metric tons of lithium batteries owned by
recycling group SNAM in Viviez, north of Toulouse, local councillor Pascal
Mazet said in a statement on X.
The fire was
contained on Sunday, the prefecture said. A team of five firefighters remained
on site on Monday, a spokesperson for the firefighters said.
French media
showed thick smoke over the Viviez site at the weekend but firefighters and
local officials said there were no indications of dangerous air pollution.
Lithium batteries are essential to electrical devices from
phones to electric cars. However, they contain combustible materials which,
combined with the energy they store, can make them vulnerable to catching fire
when exposed to heat, potentially leading to the release of toxic materials.
SNAM did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Fire at French battery recycling plant under control
(msn.com)
Warehouse
storing lithium batteries goes up in flames in France amid growing fears over
their dangers
PUBLISHED: 18:16, 18 February 2024 | UPDATED: 21:33, 18 February
2024
A warehouse storing 900 tons of lithium batteries waiting
to be recycled went up in flames this afternoon, amid growing fears over their
dangers.
The fire in France occurred at a storehouse in the town in
Viviez in Aveyron, and residents were told to stay indoors by authorities.
Locals were ordered to keep their doors and window closed
as the thick smoke engulfed the town. No injuries or deaths were reported.
While the cause of the fire has yet to be confirmed, it
took 70 firefighters to get the flames under control.
Lithium batteries, found
in e-scooters, are the fastest growing fire risk in London, with the London Fire Brigade called to an e-bike or scooter fire once every two days on
average last year.
The fire in France has once again raised questions around
the use and safety concerning the batteries.
Jean-Louis Denoit, the mayor of Viviez,
called the fire 'shocking' and told French news outlet BFMTV: 'There is indeed
reason to ask questions about the function of electric vehicles and lithium
batteries.'
The fire comes
amid proposals in the UK to build one of Europe's largest battery storage sites
in Buckinghamshire has been met with fierce criticism.
More than 200
residents have lodged objections to Statera Energy's plans to construct the 500
megawatt facility on fields at Rookery Farm.
The developers
have planned to 'strip the topsoil' and build 888 full-sized shipping
containers to accommodate the batteries, which will be surrounded by a 2.5m
high steel mesh fence.
The energy firm
also wants to build 37 inverter houses, three storage containers, seven control
rooms, four fire water storage tanks, a large customer substation and a welfare
unit.
It's expected that
it will take 18 months to build the battery plant, with residents also voicing
concerns over the possibility of 30 HGVs passing through each day.
More
Another weekend and with the US
central bank busy trying to distinguish “speed bumps from pot holes,” the rest
of the world’s stock gamblers can get busy planning next week’s AI bonanza,
Still, shame about Google AI churning out images of black Vikings and black and
oriental Iron Age Brits. Have a great
weekend everyone.
"In
reading The History of Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their
whims and their peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and recklessness,
when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix
their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people
become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their
attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first."
Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
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