Baltic Dry Index. 1407 +19 Brent Crude 77.33
Spot Gold 2040 U S 2 Year Yield 4.36 +0.16
We can't solve today's problems with the mentality that created them.
Albert Einstein.
In the US stock casinos, never mind the torpedoes, full speed ahead. But the blowout US jobs report, if accurate, delays any US central bank interest rate cuts and probably reduces their number too.
Meanwhile,
the world just took a giant leap forward to starting World War Three.
US starts strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran-linked
targets
By Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart
February
3, 2024 3:08 AM GMT
WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The U.S.
military launched airstrikes on Friday in Iraq and Syria against more than 85
targets linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the militias it backs,
in retaliation for last weekend's attack in Jordan that killed three U.S.
troops.
The
strikes, which included the use of long-range B-1 bombers flown from the U.S.,
are the first in a multi-tiered response by President Joe Biden's
administration to the attack by
Iran-backed militants, and more U.S. military operations are expected in the
coming days.
While the U.S. strikes did not target
sites inside Iran, they signal a further escalation of the conflict in the
Middle East from Israel's more than three-month-old war with Palestinian Hamas
militants in Gaza.
The
U.S. military said in a statement that the strikes hit targets including
command and control centers, rockets, missiles and drone storage facilities, as
well as logistics and munition supply chain facilities.
U.S forces hit more than 85 targets spanning seven locations, four in
Syria and three in Iraq, said the military.
The strikes targeted the Quds Force - the foreign espionage and
paramilitary arm of the IRGC that heavily influences its allied militia across
the Middle East, from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen to Syria.
U.S. Lieutenant General Douglas Sims, the director of the Joint Staff,
said the attacks appeared to be successful, triggering large secondary
explosions as the bombs hit militant weaponry, though it was not clear if any
militants were killed.
But Sims added that the strikes were taken knowing that there would
likely be casualties among those in the facilities.
He added that the weather was a key factor in the timing of the
operation.
Syrian state media said on Friday that an "American
aggression" on sites in its desert areas and at the Syrian-Iraqi border
resulted in a number of casualties and injuries.
The Iraqi military said the strikes were in the Iraqi border area and
warned they could ignite instability in the region.
"These airstrikes constitute a violation of Iraqi sovereignty,
undermine the efforts of the Iraqi government, and pose a threat that could
lead Iraq and the region into dire consequences," Iraqi military spokesman
Yahya Rasool said in a statement.
More
US
starts strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran-linked targets | Reuters
S&P 500 closes at a record, rises for a
fourth-straight week on strong tech earnings: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, FEB 2 2024 4:23 PM EST
The S&P 500 notched
a fresh record high on Friday as quarterly results from technology companies
including Facebook-parent Meta topped expectations and the January jobs report
came in much better than expected.
The broad market index added 1.1%
to close at 4,958.61, above its previous record close of 4,927.93 reached on
Monday. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average added
134.58 points, or 0.4%, to 38,654.42, also a record close. The Nasdaq Composite climbed
1.7% to 15,628.95.
Shares of Meta popped
more than 20% after the social-media
giant’s quarterly results topped analysts’ expectations. The
Facebook-parent also announced it will pay a quarterly
dividend for the first time, and it authorized a $50 billion
share buyback program. Amazon shares
jumped 7.9% on a
fourth-quarter earnings beat.
The rise in tech stocks helped
shift investor focus from a scorching jobs report earlier on Friday that spiked
interest rates. The
benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped a whopping 17 basis
points to 4.02% after the government reported the U.S. economy added 353,000
jobs in January, well above the Dow Jones estimate from economists
of 185,000. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)
“The price action today is a
display that tech can decouple from the rates narrative and trade more on
fundamentals,” said Dylan Kremer, chief investment officer of Certuity. “You’re
in this window where tech can trade higher despite where rates are going, and
that’s catching people off guard.”
The report also included
inflationary data in the form of greater-than-expected wage growth. Wages
expanded by 4.5% year over year, more than a 4.1% forecast. This report and
comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday likely pushes the chances of
a rate cut back to May or the second half of the year.
But investors instead focused on
the resiliency of the economy and how that would keep boosting profits.
For the week, the S&P 500
added 1.4%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% and the Dow rose 1.4%. It was the
fourth week in a row of gains for the major benchmarks after a stumble to start
2024.
Along with surging rates, the
market shook off a tepid Apple quarter. The shares sat out the Friday rally and
closed essentially flat after the iPhone juggernaut posted
a 13% sales decline in China.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
U.S.
economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected
PUBLISHED FRI, FEB 2 2024 8:30 AM EST
Job growth posted a surprise increase in January,
demonstrating again that the U.S. labor market is solid and poised to support
broader economic growth.
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month,
much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department’s
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%,
against the estimate for 3.8%.
Wage growth also showed strength, as average hourly
earnings increased 0.6%, double the monthly estimate. On a year-over-year
basis, wages jumped 4.5%, well above the 4.1% forecast. The wage gains came
amid a decline in average hours worked, down to 34.1, or 0.2 hour lower.
Job growth was widespread on the month, led by
professional and business services with 74,000. Other significant contributors
included health care (70,000), retail trade (45,000), government (36,000),
social assistance (30,000) and manufacturing (23,000).
The report also indicated that December’s job gains
were much better than originally reported. The month posted a gain of 333,000,
which was an upwards revision of 117,000 from the initial estimate. November
also was revised higher, to 182,000, or 9,000 higher than the last estimate.
While the report demonstrated the resilience of the
U.S. economy, it also could raise questions about how soon the Federal Reserve
will be able to lower interest rates.
The January payrolls count comes with economists
and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the
larger economy. Some high-profile layoffs recently have raised questions about
the durability of what has been a powerful trend in hiring.
However, broader layoff numbers, such as the Labor
Department’s report on initial jobless claims, show companies hesitant to part
with workers in such a tight labor market.
Gross domestic product growth also has defied
expectations.
The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong
3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread
predictions for a recession. Growth came even as the Federal Reserve further
raised interest rates in its quest to bring down inflation.
More
U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much
better than expected (cnbc.com)
Wall St. Week Ahead: Scorching US economy throws off market's
Fed cut narrative
By Lewis Krauskopf February 2, 2024 9:50 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Robust U.S.
economic data is confronting investors with an unexpected question: whether
strong growth can keep driving stocks higher even if the Federal Reserve
delivers less monetary-policy easing than the market had hoped.
Expectations
that the Fed would pivot to cutting rates sent stocks soaring at the end of
2023 and pushed the S&P 500 (.SPX) to a record high in January. The
index is up 4% this year after surging 24% in 2023.
That narrative has been jolted by evidence
that the economy may be running too hot for the Fed to cut rates without
risking an inflationary rebound. Friday's
blockbuster U.S. employment number was the latest sign of
stronger-than-expected growth, after Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell days earlier deflated hopes the central
bank would begin lowering rates in March.
"Looking
back on the fourth quarter and the recent rally in stocks, a lot of it was
driven from the thought of a Fed pivot, and the Fed pivot is evaporating in
front of our eyes," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at
John Hancock Investment Management.
Market expectations of a near-term rate cut dimmed after the jobs data,
with futures tied to the Fed's main policy rate reflecting a 70% chance of the
central bank lowering borrowing costs at its May 1 meeting, from over 90% on
Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a March cut
stood at about 20%, from just under 50% a week ago.
With Friday's jobs report, "the six or seven rate cuts that markets
had been pricing in seems very offside," Seema Shah, chief global
strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a written commentary.
Friday's jobs
report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs last month - well
above the 180,000 increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. The
economy also added 126,000 more jobs in November and December than previously
reported.
More
Wall
St. Week Ahead: Scorching US economy throws off market's Fed cut narrative |
Reuters
Finally,
more on so you really, really, really want to drive an EV. There’s more bad
news in the technology section.
US’s
guardrail system can’t handle heavy EVs, preliminary test crashes indicate
February
1, 2024
LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) — Under an overcast sky last fall,
engineers with a University of Nebraska road safety facility watched as an
electric-powered pickup truck hurtled toward a guardrail installed on the
facility’s testing ground on the edge of the local municipal airport.
The test crash was to see how the guardrail — the
same type found along tens of thousands of miles of roadway in the United
States — would hold up against electric vehicles that can weigh thousands of
pounds more than the average gas-powered sedan.
It came as little surprise when the nearly 4-ton
2022 Rivian R1T tore through the metal guardrail and hardly slowed until
hitting a concrete barrier yards away on the other side.
“We knew it was going to be an extremely demanding
test of the roadside safety system,” said Cody Stolle with the university’s
Midwest Roadside Safety Facility. “The system was not made to handle vehicles
greater than 5,000 pounds.”
The
university released the results of the crash test Wednesday. The concern comes
as the rising popularity of electric vehicles has led transportation officials
to sound the alarm over the weight disparity between the new battery-powered
vehicles and lighter gas-powered ones. Last year, the National Transportation
Safety Board expressed concern about the safety risks heavy
electric vehicles pose if they collide with lighter vehicles.
Road safety officials and organizations say the
electric vehicles themselves appear to offer superior protection to their
occupants, even if they might prove dangerous to occupants of lighter vehicles.
The Rivian truck tested in Nebraska showed almost no damage to the cab’s
interior after slamming into the concrete barrier, Stolle said.
But the entire purpose of guardrails is to help
keep passenger vehicles from leaving the roadway, said Michael Brooks,
executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety. Guardrails are
intended to keep cars from careening off the road at critical areas, such as
over bridges and waterways, near the edges of cliffs and ravines and over rocky
terrain, where injury and death in an off-the-road crash is much more likely.
“Guardrails are kind of a safety feature of last
resort,” Brooks said. “I think what you’re seeing here is the real concern with
EVs — their weight. There are a lot of new vehicles in this larger-size range
coming out in that 7,000-pound range. And that’s a concern.”
More + video.
US’s guardrail system can’t handle heavy EVs, preliminary test crashes indicate (msn.com)
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Inflation to
fall to 2% target within months, Bank of England says, but will rise again
February
1, 2024
Inflation will hit the Bank of England’s 2% target within a matter of
months, the Banks says, but only “temporarily” before it rises again later in
the year.
The Bank’s latest projections, accompanying today’s decision to hold
interest rates at 5.25% show inflation is set to hit 2% in the second quarter
of this year, but will rise again in the third and fourth, as the comparative
figures for energy prices.
Inflation will then stay above target through 2025 and 2026, only
returning to 2% in 2027. The Bank says this was due to "the persistence of
domestic inflationary pressures".
The worse long-term picture on inflation may pour cold water on hopes
that the Bank will cut its interest rates soon.
GDP, meanwhile, is now expected to stagnate in the first quarter of this
year, but will pick a little up with 0.5% growth in 2025. The unemployment rate
is expected to rise, but only to a peak of 5% within the forecast period, which
would still be low by historic standards.
The public still awaits official figures that will show whether the UK
ended 2023 in a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive
quarters of negative growth. The economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter of
last year, while October and November GDP figures largely cancelled themselves
out, meaning that a modest decline in December could mean recession.
More
Inflation to fall to 2% target within months, Bank of
England says, but will rise again (msn.com)
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid-19
infections remain low with no sign of January spike
February 1, 2024
Covid-19 levels among the
general population remain low, with no sign of a fresh spike in infections in
the weeks following the new year, data suggests.
Some 2.0% of people in
private households in England and Scotland are likely
to have tested positive for coronavirus on January 24, the equivalent of around
1.2 million people or one in 50.
This is down from 2.2%, or
around one in 45 people, a fortnight earlier on January 10.
The figures have been
published as part of the Winter Covid-19 Infection Study, which is monitoring
prevalence of the virus over the next few months.
The
project is being run by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and
is based on data collected from around 150,000 individuals, who use lateral
flow devices to test for the virus.
Prevalence stood at an
estimated 4.3% of people in England and Scotland in the week before Christmas,
or one in 23 – the highest since the study began in mid-November.
The new figures suggest there
was no clear rise in infections as people returned to work and school in early
January.
Professor Steven Riley, UKHSA
director-general for data and surveillance, said: “It is encouraging to see
that this week’s data suggests that Covid-19 prevalence across the country has
remained low and I am grateful to the volunteers who participate in this study
and enable us to make these estimates.
----The rate of hospital
admissions in England of patients testing positive for coronavirus is broadly
stable, standing at 5.0 per 100,000 people in the week to January 28, up very
slightly from 4.8 per 100,000 the previous week, according to UKHSA figures.
This is just below the rate of 5.2 per 100,000 seen over Christmas.
Admissions remain highest among people aged 85 and over, at 58.6 per
100,000, followed by 75 to 84-year-olds at 23.1.
More
Covid-19 infections remain low with no sign of January
spike (msn.com)
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
More EV madness. Approx. 7 minutes.
EV Madness: Lithium Ion batteries now need
PASSPORTS in the EU | MGUY Australia
EV
Madness: Lithium Ion batteries now need PASSPORTS in the EU | MGUY Australia -
YouTube
This weekend’s music
diversion. The entirely forgotten Franciscan Giovanni Battista Martini. Two ok out of the three, for me at least. Approx. 8
minutes.
From the picture, who
knew that they had Punch and Judy shows back then.
G.
B. Martini - Sinfonia a quattro con Trombe, HH 27,89 - Accademia del Santo
Spirito
G.
B. Martini - Sinfonia a quattro con Trombe, HH 27,89 - Accademia del Santo
Spirito - YouTube
This weekend’s chess
update. Approx. 12 minutes.
10
Year Old Wei Yi || Cold-Blooded Caveman with Merciless Precision of an
Algorithm
10
Year Old Wei Yi || Cold-Blooded Caveman with Merciless Precision of an
Algorithm (youtube.com)
Finally, why Lithium
Ion batteries are tomorrow’s big waste disposal problem. Approx. 11 minutes.
Crushing
Huge Lithium Ion Batteries with Hydraulic Press
Crushing
Huge Lithium Ion Batteries with Hydraulic Press (youtube.com)
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.
Albert Einstein.
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