Saturday, 3 February 2024

Special Update 02/2/2024 Another Leap Closer To WW3.

Baltic Dry Index. 1407 +19          Brent Crude 77.33

Spot Gold 2040                U S 2 Year Yield 4.36 +0.16

We can't solve today's problems with the mentality that created them.

Albert Einstein.

In the US stock casinos, never mind the torpedoes, full speed ahead. But the blowout US jobs report, if accurate, delays any US central bank interest rate cuts and probably reduces their number too.

Meanwhile, the world just took a giant leap forward to starting World War Three.


US starts strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran-linked targets

By Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart 

WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. military launched airstrikes on Friday in Iraq and Syria against more than 85 targets linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the militias it backs, in retaliation for last weekend's attack in Jordan that killed three U.S. troops.

The strikes, which included the use of long-range B-1 bombers flown from the U.S., are the first in a multi-tiered response by President Joe Biden's administration to the attack by Iran-backed militants, and more U.S. military operations are expected in the coming days.

While the U.S. strikes did not target sites inside Iran, they signal a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East from Israel's more than three-month-old war with Palestinian Hamas militants in Gaza.

The U.S. military said in a statement that the strikes hit targets including command and control centers, rockets, missiles and drone storage facilities, as well as logistics and munition supply chain facilities.

U.S forces hit more than 85 targets spanning seven locations, four in Syria and three in Iraq, said the military.

The strikes targeted the Quds Force - the foreign espionage and paramilitary arm of the IRGC that heavily influences its allied militia across the Middle East, from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen to Syria.

U.S. Lieutenant General Douglas Sims, the director of the Joint Staff, said the attacks appeared to be successful, triggering large secondary explosions as the bombs hit militant weaponry, though it was not clear if any militants were killed.

But Sims added that the strikes were taken knowing that there would likely be casualties among those in the facilities.

He added that the weather was a key factor in the timing of the operation.

Syrian state media said on Friday that an "American aggression" on sites in its desert areas and at the Syrian-Iraqi border resulted in a number of casualties and injuries.

The Iraqi military said the strikes were in the Iraqi border area and warned they could ignite instability in the region.

"These airstrikes constitute a violation of Iraqi sovereignty, undermine the efforts of the Iraqi government, and pose a threat that could lead Iraq and the region into dire consequences," Iraqi military spokesman Yahya Rasool said in a statement.

More

US starts strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran-linked targets | Reuters

 

S&P 500 closes at a record, rises for a fourth-straight week on strong tech earnings: Live updates

UPDATED FRI, FEB 2 2024 4:23 PM EST

The S&P 500 notched a fresh record high on Friday as quarterly results from technology companies including Facebook-parent Meta topped expectations and the January jobs report came in much better than expected.

The broad market index added 1.1% to close at 4,958.61, above its previous record close of 4,927.93 reached on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 134.58 points, or 0.4%, to 38,654.42, also a record close. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.7% to 15,628.95.

Shares of Meta popped more than 20% after the social-media giant’s quarterly results topped analysts’ expectations. The Facebook-parent also announced it will pay a quarterly dividend for the first time, and it authorized a $50 billion share buyback program. Amazon shares jumped 7.9% on a fourth-quarter earnings beat.

The rise in tech stocks helped shift investor focus from a scorching jobs report earlier on Friday that spiked interest rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped a whopping 17 basis points to 4.02% after the government reported the U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, well above the Dow Jones estimate from economists of 185,000. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)

“The price action today is a display that tech can decouple from the rates narrative and trade more on fundamentals,” said Dylan Kremer, chief investment officer of Certuity. “You’re in this window where tech can trade higher despite where rates are going, and that’s catching people off guard.”

The report also included inflationary data in the form of greater-than-expected wage growth. Wages expanded by 4.5% year over year, more than a 4.1% forecast. This report and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday likely pushes the chances of a rate cut back to May or the second half of the year.

But investors instead focused on the resiliency of the economy and how that would keep boosting profits.

For the week, the S&P 500 added 1.4%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% and the Dow rose 1.4%. It was the fourth week in a row of gains for the major benchmarks after a stumble to start 2024.

Along with surging rates, the market shook off a tepid Apple quarter. The shares sat out the Friday rally and closed essentially flat after the iPhone juggernaut posted a 13% sales decline in China.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected

PUBLISHED FRI, FEB 2 2024 8:30 AM EST

Job growth posted a surprise increase in January, demonstrating again that the U.S. labor market is solid and poised to support broader economic growth.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, against the estimate for 3.8%.

Wage growth also showed strength, as average hourly earnings increased 0.6%, double the monthly estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wages jumped 4.5%, well above the 4.1% forecast. The wage gains came amid a decline in average hours worked, down to 34.1, or 0.2 hour lower.

Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. Other significant contributors included health care (70,000), retail trade (45,000), government (36,000), social assistance (30,000) and manufacturing (23,000).

The report also indicated that December’s job gains were much better than originally reported. The month posted a gain of 333,000, which was an upwards revision of 117,000 from the initial estimate. November also was revised higher, to 182,000, or 9,000 higher than the last estimate.

While the report demonstrated the resilience of the U.S. economy, it also could raise questions about how soon the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates.

The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. Some high-profile layoffs recently have raised questions about the durability of what has been a powerful trend in hiring.

However, broader layoff numbers, such as the Labor Department’s report on initial jobless claims, show companies hesitant to part with workers in such a tight labor market.

Gross domestic product growth also has defied expectations.

The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession. Growth came even as the Federal Reserve further raised interest rates in its quest to bring down inflation.

More

U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected (cnbc.com)

Wall St. Week Ahead: Scorching US economy throws off market's Fed cut narrative

By Lewis Krauskopf 

NEW YORK, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Robust U.S. economic data is confronting investors with an unexpected question: whether strong growth can keep driving stocks higher even if the Federal Reserve delivers less monetary-policy easing than the market had hoped.

Expectations that the Fed would pivot to cutting rates sent stocks soaring at the end of 2023 and pushed the S&P 500 (.SPX) opens new tab to a record high in January. The index is up 4% this year after surging 24% in 2023.

That narrative has been jolted by evidence that the economy may be running too hot for the Fed to cut rates without risking an inflationary rebound. Friday's blockbuster U.S. employment number was the latest sign of stronger-than-expected growth, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell days earlier deflated hopes the central bank would begin lowering rates in March.

"Looking back on the fourth quarter and the recent rally in stocks, a lot of it was driven from the thought of a Fed pivot, and the Fed pivot is evaporating in front of our eyes," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

Market expectations of a near-term rate cut dimmed after the jobs data, with futures tied to the Fed's main policy rate reflecting a 70% chance of the central bank lowering borrowing costs at its May 1 meeting, from over 90% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a March cut stood at about 20%, from just under 50% a week ago.

With Friday's jobs report, "the six or seven rate cuts that markets had been pricing in seems very offside," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a written commentary.

Friday's jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs last month - well above the 180,000 increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. The economy also added 126,000 more jobs in November and December than previously reported.

More

Wall St. Week Ahead: Scorching US economy throws off market's Fed cut narrative | Reuters

Finally, more on so you really, really, really want to drive an EV. There’s more bad news in the technology section.

 

US’s guardrail system can’t handle heavy EVs, preliminary test crashes indicate

February 1, 2024

LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) — Under an overcast sky last fall, engineers with a University of Nebraska road safety facility watched as an electric-powered pickup truck hurtled toward a guardrail installed on the facility’s testing ground on the edge of the local municipal airport.

The test crash was to see how the guardrail — the same type found along tens of thousands of miles of roadway in the United States — would hold up against electric vehicles that can weigh thousands of pounds more than the average gas-powered sedan.

It came as little surprise when the nearly 4-ton 2022 Rivian R1T tore through the metal guardrail and hardly slowed until hitting a concrete barrier yards away on the other side.

“We knew it was going to be an extremely demanding test of the roadside safety system,” said Cody Stolle with the university’s Midwest Roadside Safety Facility. “The system was not made to handle vehicles greater than 5,000 pounds.”

The university released the results of the crash test Wednesday. The concern comes as the rising popularity of electric vehicles has led transportation officials to sound the alarm over the weight disparity between the new battery-powered vehicles and lighter gas-powered ones. Last year, the National Transportation Safety Board expressed concern about the safety risks heavy electric vehicles pose if they collide with lighter vehicles.

Road safety officials and organizations say the electric vehicles themselves appear to offer superior protection to their occupants, even if they might prove dangerous to occupants of lighter vehicles. The Rivian truck tested in Nebraska showed almost no damage to the cab’s interior after slamming into the concrete barrier, Stolle said.

But the entire purpose of guardrails is to help keep passenger vehicles from leaving the roadway, said Michael Brooks, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety. Guardrails are intended to keep cars from careening off the road at critical areas, such as over bridges and waterways, near the edges of cliffs and ravines and over rocky terrain, where injury and death in an off-the-road crash is much more likely.

“Guardrails are kind of a safety feature of last resort,” Brooks said. “I think what you’re seeing here is the real concern with EVs — their weight. There are a lot of new vehicles in this larger-size range coming out in that 7,000-pound range. And that’s a concern.”

More + video.

US’s guardrail system can’t handle heavy EVs, preliminary test crashes indicate (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.   

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation/recession now needs an entire section of its own.

Inflation to fall to 2% target within months, Bank of England says, but will rise again

February 1, 2024

Inflation will hit the Bank of England’s 2% target within a matter of months, the Banks says, but only “temporarily” before it rises again later in the year.

The Bank’s latest projections, accompanying today’s decision to hold interest rates at 5.25% show inflation is set to hit 2% in the second quarter of this year, but will rise again in the third and fourth, as the comparative figures for energy prices.

Inflation will then stay above target through 2025 and 2026, only returning to 2% in 2027. The Bank says this was due to "the persistence of domestic inflationary pressures".

The worse long-term picture on inflation may pour cold water on hopes that the Bank will cut its interest rates soon.

GDP, meanwhile, is now expected to stagnate in the first quarter of this year, but will pick a little up with 0.5% growth in 2025. The unemployment rate is expected to rise, but only to a peak of 5% within the forecast period, which would still be low by historic standards.

The public still awaits official figures that will show whether the UK ended 2023 in a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter of last year, while October and November GDP figures largely cancelled themselves out, meaning that a modest decline in December could mean recession. 

More

Inflation to fall to 2% target within months, Bank of England says, but will rise again (msn.com)


Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Covid-19 infections remain low with no sign of January spike

February 1, 2024

Covid-19 levels among the general population remain low, with no sign of a fresh spike in infections in the weeks following the new year, data suggests.

Some 2.0% of people in private households in England and Scotland are likely to have tested positive for coronavirus on January 24, the equivalent of around 1.2 million people or one in 50.

This is down from 2.2%, or around one in 45 people, a fortnight earlier on January 10.

The figures have been published as part of the Winter Covid-19 Infection Study, which is monitoring prevalence of the virus over the next few months.

The project is being run by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and is based on data collected from around 150,000 individuals, who use lateral flow devices to test for the virus.

Prevalence stood at an estimated 4.3% of people in England and Scotland in the week before Christmas, or one in 23 – the highest since the study began in mid-November.

The new figures suggest there was no clear rise in infections as people returned to work and school in early January.

Professor Steven Riley, UKHSA director-general for data and surveillance, said: “It is encouraging to see that this week’s data suggests that Covid-19 prevalence across the country has remained low and I am grateful to the volunteers who participate in this study and enable us to make these estimates.

----The rate of hospital admissions in England of patients testing positive for coronavirus is broadly stable, standing at 5.0 per 100,000 people in the week to January 28, up very slightly from 4.8 per 100,000 the previous week, according to UKHSA figures.

This is just below the rate of 5.2 per 100,000 seen over Christmas.

Admissions remain highest among people aged 85 and over, at 58.6 per 100,000, followed by 75 to 84-year-olds at 23.1.

More

Covid-19 infections remain low with no sign of January spike (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

More EV madness.  Approx. 7 minutes.

 EV Madness: Lithium Ion batteries now need PASSPORTS in the EU | MGUY Australia

EV Madness: Lithium Ion batteries now need PASSPORTS in the EU | MGUY Australia - YouTube

This weekend’s music diversion. The entirely forgotten Franciscan Giovanni Battista Martini.  Two ok  out of the three, for me at least. Approx. 8 minutes.

From the picture, who knew that they had Punch and Judy shows back then.

G. B. Martini - Sinfonia a quattro con Trombe, HH 27,89 - Accademia del Santo Spirito

G. B. Martini - Sinfonia a quattro con Trombe, HH 27,89 - Accademia del Santo Spirito - YouTube

This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 12 minutes.

10 Year Old Wei Yi || Cold-Blooded Caveman with Merciless Precision of an Algorithm

10 Year Old Wei Yi || Cold-Blooded Caveman with Merciless Precision of an Algorithm (youtube.com)

Finally, why Lithium Ion batteries are tomorrow’s big waste disposal problem. Approx. 11 minutes.

Crushing Huge Lithium Ion Batteries with Hydraulic Press

Crushing Huge Lithium Ion Batteries with Hydraulic Press (youtube.com)

The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.

Albert Einstein.

 

 

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