Wednesday, 21 February 2024

More Stock Casino Wobble. The Top?

Baltic Dry Index. 1632 +03            Brent Crude  82.47

Spot Gold 2030                  US 2 Year Yield 4.59 -0.05

It's morally wrong to allow a sucker to keep his money.

W. C. Fields.

In the global stock casinos, rising fear that they just ran out of the pool of greater fool buyers. Sell? To whom, sir?

Hong Kong market jumps 2% as wider Asia-Pacific stocks trade mixed; Japan business sentiment sours

UPDATED WED, FEB 21 2024 1:02 AM EST

Hong Kong stocks gained more than 2% as the wider Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed following Wall Street losses Wednesday, while investors assessed Japan’s trade data and souring business sentiment among large manufacturers.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 2.36%, driven by property, technology and health-care stocks. China’s CSI 300 traded 2.55% higher.

The Nikkei 225 lost 0.34% after Japanese manufacturers’ business confidence tumbled to -1 in February, compared with the previous month’s reading of 6, according to the Reuters Tankan poll. That marks the first negative reading since last April.

The data comes less than a week after Japan slid into a technical recession and lost its spot as the third-largest global economy to Germany.

The Reuters monthly poll is considered to be a leading indicator of the Bank of Japan’s official survey.

South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.29%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped 0.66% to close at 7,608.4.

Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes ended the trading session in negative territory as Nvidia led a broader tech decline ahead of the chipmaker’s earnings report

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 64.19 points, or 0.17%, settling at 38,563.80. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6% to end at 4,975.51. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 0.92% to close at 15,630.78.

Asia-Pacific markets, Japan tankan and trade: Live updates (cnbc.com)

European markets head for mixed open, struggle to find positive momentum

UPDATED WED, FEB 21 2024 12:23 AM EST

European stocks are heading for a mixed open Wednesday as regional markets struggle to find positive momentum.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks gained more than 3% as wider Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight following Wall Street losses Wednesday, while investors assessed Japan’s trade data and souring business sentiment among large manufacturers.

U.S. stock futures ticked down Tuesday night after the major averages incurred a second day of losses, fueled by a decline in Nvidia.

European markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)

Nasdaq 100 futures slip after major averages incur back-to-back losses: Live updates

UPDATED TUE, FEB 20 2024 7:58 PM EST

U.S. stock futures ticked down Tuesday night after the major averages incurred a second day of losses, fueled by a decline in Nvidia.

Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.2%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped just 25 points, or 0.06%. S&P 500 futures declined 0.1%.

In after-hours action, Palo Alto Networks shed 20% after the cybersecurity company cut its full-year revenue guidanceSolarEdge Technologies lost more than 10%, dropping on weak first-quarter guidance.

During the regular session, the three major averages slid, dragged lower by tech. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.92%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The 30-stock Dow fell 0.17%.

A slump in Nvidia — which slid more than 4% — weighed on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 as sentiment soured the day before the chip giant is expected to post its quarterly results.

Concerns surrounding Nvidia’s high valuation have grown leading up to the company’s earnings announcement, slated for Wednesday after the bell. The stock has soared about 225% over the past year.

The broader tech sector is now overvalued, according to Alex McGrath, chief investment officer at NorthEnd Private Wealth. He thinks Tuesday’s sell-off of Nvidia and other big tech names could mean investors are coming to terms with “the greater fool theory” — that is, when overvalued assets continue to rise because there are enough investors willing to pay more, until there aren’t any more left. 

“People continued to pay higher and higher prices for the tech sector throughout [the rally]. It had to have been a core asset allocation, but as you get longer and longer into this, the biggest question is: When do you start to trim?” McGrath said. “And with the Nvidia action today, I think that’s what you’re seeing.” 

On Wednesday, Wall Street will also have an eye out for the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, seeking further insight on where the central bank stands on rates. This comes on the back of hotter-than-expected economic data the previous week. 

Other companies slated to announce their quarterly results Wednesday include HSBCWingstop and Analog Devices before the bell. In addition to Nvidia, Etsy will also report its results in the afternoon. 

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

Morning Bid: Markets wait on Nvidia, Fed minutes

February 21, 2024 5:50 AM GMT

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

Investors are holding their breath for perhaps the most influential earnings in a long while, with the poster child of the AI boom, Nvidia (NVDA.O) opens new tab, set to report another blockbuster quarter.

And yet investors, who have seen the stock skyrocket in the past 18 months on the back of AI frenzy, may still be disappointed if the chipmaker is unable to maintain its astonishing growth.

The spotlight, perhaps not as brightly, will also be on the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting in January as traders try to predict the start of the monetary easing cycle.

But with data last week showing inflation refusing to slow significantly, some of the comments from central bankers may already be outdated. Market participants have scaled back expectations for early and steep interest rate cuts and now anticipate June to be the starting point of the easing cycle.

More

Morning Bid: Markets wait on Nvidia, Fed minutes | Reuters

Finally, did a political judge just kill NY’s golden goose.

Businessmen Say They Will No Longer Invest in New York After Justice Engoron’s Trump Ruling

The justice’s finding that former President Donald Trump is liable for fraud has some investors taking their business elsewhere.

2/20/2024 Updated: 2/20/2024

Some real estate investors are losing interest in investing in the Big Apple after New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron’s staggering ruling last week in a civil fraud case against President Donald Trump.

President Trump and Trump Organization executives were ordered on Feb. 16 to pay $355 million in fines, plus interest, after Justice Engoron found them liable for inflating the values of their assets to obtain better rates from lenders and insurers.

The judge also barred the former president and his sons from managing their businesses in New York for three years.

“I’m shocked at this. I can’t even understand or fathom the decision at all. There’s no rationale for it,” “Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary told Fox Business on Feb. 19.

The Canadian businessman, often called “Mr. Wonderful,” described New York as a “mega loser state” for business.

“New York was already a loser state, like California’s a loser state,” he said. “There are many loser states because of policy, high taxes, uncompetitive regulation. It was already on the top of the list of being a loser state. I would never invest in New York now.”

Instead, Mr. O’Leary said he would be looking to Oklahoma, North Dakota, and West Virginia for future investment opportunities.

“Those are winner states. They don’t do things like this.”

President Trump expressed appreciation for Mr. O’Leary’s comments in a post on his Truth Social platform.

----And at least one other investor is doing just that.

Grant Cardone, a private equity fund manager and owner of real estate investment firm Cardone Capital, said he was considering investing in New York before Justice Engoron’s ruling.

“CardoneCapital just started to research real estate investments in New York believing it was time to get into the market,” Mr. Cardone said in an X post. “After the over reach [sic.] by the judge in the Trump case & penalties imposed of $355M I told them team do NOT waste time in New York.”

The real estate mogul added that his companies would now be doubling their efforts in Florida, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee instead.

More

Businessmen Say They Will No Longer Invest in New York After Justice Engoron’s Trump Ruling | The Epoch Times

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Transitory? UK inflation can’t be explained away by Bank of England’s easy answers

TUESDAY 20 FEBRUARY 2024 6:00 AM

Last week new figures on the UK economy suggested that something unusual is happening – inflation and unemployment are falling at the same time.

In January, inflation came in below expectations at four per cent, down from peaks of over 11 per cent in October 2022.

Most economists think inflation will fall to the two per cent target as soon as the spring.

Simultaneously unemployment is, apparently, going down. Having peaked at a post-Covid high of 4.3 per cent in July 2022, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) now estimates the unemployment rate to be 3.8 per cent.

There are two caveats on the unemployment point. Firstly, the ONS has well-publicised issues with its labour force survey, which raises a few question marks about the accuracy of the data. Speaking in the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, Andrew Bailey said it is “really hard to judge” whether unemployment is at 3.8 per cent or 4.2 per cent.

Secondly, the fall in unemployment was counterbalanced by rising inactivity rather than rising employment. In other words, it does not necessarily mean that more people are in work.

However, what seems fairly clear is that the labour market remains remarkably tight given the rapid rise in interest rates.

Why is this surprising? Standard economic theory suggests that unemployment should rise as inflation falls. Higher rates of inflation point to an overheating economy, which require higher interest rates to slow the economy back down again. The cost of slowing the economy is that people are put out of work.

Clearly this has not happened (at least not yet), which raises questions about the nature of the inflation shock the Bank has been dealing with.

Was inflation transitory after all?

Those backing the case that the spike in inflation was transitory argue that the inflation shock was driven primarily by supply shocks relating to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and post-pandemic disruptions to supply chains.

As those shocks unwound, inflation would dissipate without the need for the Bank’s repeated interest rate hikes. Some have argued that this transitory inflation would probably take around two years to unwind.

As things stand, inflation in the UK is set to approach two per cent – the Bank of England’s target rate -within this timeframe. The fact that unemployment has actually fallen in the past few months does suggest that inflation was overwhelmingly caused by snare-ups on the supply side rather than pent up demand.

If you were to take the transitory argument to its conclusion, the implication is that interest rates may never have needed to be hiked in the first place and should now definitely be cut.

---- here are also clearly domestic inflation pressures in the UK, which are not transitory.

Annual wage growth in the UK stands at 6.2 per cent – still far too high to be consistent with the Bank’s two per cent target. Indeed, real wages have grown at roughly the same rate in both the US and the UK since 2019, despite significantly stronger productivity growth in the US.

Services inflation, the most important measure of domestic inflation, stands at 6.5 per cent in the UK, compared to four per cent in the eurozone and 5.4 per cent in the US.

The point of the Bank’s rate hikes was to contain the second round effects from the initial supply shocks. Although waning, these second round effects are most pronounced in the UK.

More

Transitory? UK inflation can't be explained away by Bank's easy answers (cityam.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

New study links COVID-19 vaccine to possible health issues, but adverse effects rare

February 20, 2024

(NewsNation) — A new study discovered possible links between the COVID-19 pandemic and possible neurological, blood and heart-related conditions.

The new study, published in Vaccine, is the largest study of its kind since the pandemic began and could reignite the debate over the risks and benefits of the vaccine.

Over the past three years, more than 13.5 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered around the world. The World Health Organization recently announced that vaccination has saved at least a million and a half lives in Europe alone.

The study links vaccines to slight increases in neurological, blood and heart-related conditions such as myocarditis, pericarditis and Guillain-Barre syndrome.

Researchers stressed that an association between the vaccine and adverse side effects does not prove the vaccine caused them and that side effects were rare.

Of the more than 99 million people studied, researchers observed 190 cases of Guillian-Barre Syndrome, which is typically developed after a viral infection but has also been linked to vaccines in rare cases, and 69 cases of hematological conditions.

COVID-19 itself can also cause side effects that affect the heart, including myocarditis.

More

New study links COVID-19 vaccine to possible health issues, but adverse effects rare (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Another bad idea from UK government.  Due to the Li-ion battery fire risk, perhaps a fire engine can accompany each EV ambulance. Oh wait, fire engines are going EV Li-ion fire risk too!

NHS net zero mayhem as electric ambulances 'will respond to 5,000 fewer incidents per day'

EXCLUSIVE: Eye-opening data warns of a drop in the number of incidents that electric ambulances would be able to respond to, when every second counts.

14:32, Thu, Feb 15, 2024 | UPDATED: 12:30, Sat, Feb 17, 2024

The NHS has been given a stark warning about electric ambulances, as an expert has claimed they could respond to 1.9million callouts in a year - about 5,000 fewer per day compared with hydrogen-powered vehicles.

 

A number of NHS trusts across the UK are now trialling electric vehicle (EV) ambulances as the drive towards net zero becomes ever more fierce. London Ambulance Service put its first electric ambulance into service on New Year's Eve.

But an expert from a company that harnesses a rival energy source - hydrogen - has now given the NHS a stark warning about EV capabilities.

EV equivalents take up to 5.5 hours to fully recharge, meaning more time off the roads than traditional petrol or diesel counterparts.

And new data reveals that with refuelling time in mind, if England’s current ambulance fleet was entirely EVs, it would be able to respond to 5,341 fewer incidents per day than if it was powered by hydrogen.

An NHS spokesman, however, disputed the claims - saying that electric ambulances can be "effectively recharged" and that it was "incorrect" to say they would deliver a reduced service compared with other methods of transport.

Robbie Harbison, product manager at hydrogen compression technology experts Haskel, told Express.co.uk: "Ambulances and the workforce that run them are a vital part of our community, helping to save lives every day.

"It’s important that when we consider the future for such vital services, we are thinking about how we can maximise their time on the road helping the sick and the vulnerable."

Net zero by 2050 is written into law and all sectors of the UK are scrambling to find ways to decarbonise. Within transport, electrification is well suited to small vehicles, taxis and vans, but less so when it comes to larger vehicles like ambulances, HGVs and buses.

The Government has already indicated its intention to support hydrogen fuel - and awarded £3.9million to a project aimed at developing hydrogen-powered vehicles for the emergency services and councils.

Urgent NHS warning as electric ambulances 'would respond to 5,000 fewer incidents per day' | UK | News | Express.co.uk

A thing worth having is a thing worth cheating for.

Wall Street with apologies to W. C. Fields.

 

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