Baltic
Dry Index. 1866 +114
Brent Crude 81.28
Spot
Gold 2032 US
2 Year Yield 4.67 -0.02
Murray Rothbard.
In the stock casinos, what’s not to like? The AI stock mania bubble bubbles on, until one day it doesn’t.
Why? Because all manias come to an end, when the smart money professionals have exited, leaving the suckers holding the large losses. It was ever thus on Wall Street, in the City and other stock gambling casinos around the world.
My guess and it’s only a guess, is that the current bubble blows up when later this year, inflation starts rising again or our next global recession starts to hit.
Below, the opening to our closing week of February.
Time to dress up the markets for those all important professional money manager
bonuses.
Japan’s Nikkei
225 extends rally to new highs; China set to snap nine-day winning streak
UPDATED MON, FEB 26 2024 12:38 AM EST
Japan’s
Nikkei 225 index hit a fresh high Monday as traders returned from a long
weekend, while China markets were set to snap a nine-day winning streak.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
0.3%, comfortably trading above its closing record of 39,098.68. The index
breached its 1989 all-time high of 38,915.87 on Thursday. The broader Topix
added 0.6%.
A strong rally in China stocks
stalled on Monday, with the CSI 300 index down 0.5%.
South Korea’s financial
regulatory body unveiled
new measures to improve corporate governance on Monday, taking
a leaf out of Japan’s playbook to help boost its undervalued markets and tackle
the “Korea
discount.”
But the measures did little to
boost its main index on the day, with the Kospi down
0.6%. The small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.2%.
Investors will focus on a slew of
economic data expected this week including China’s manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index and the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index
data, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
0.3%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 ended
0.1% higher at 7,652.80.
Wall Street’s main indexes hit record highs
Friday as investors closed out the week on an upbeat note.
The S&P 500 inched
higher by 0.03% to close at 5,088.8, breaking above 5,100 for the first time
earlier in the session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
0.16% by close, also reaching a fresh record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite closed
0.28% lower but had notched a fresh all-time high earlier in the session.
Asia
markets: Japan's Nikkei 225 extends rally to new highs (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures tick lower ahead of key inflation data and corporate earnings: Live
updates
UPDATED MON, FEB 26 2024 12:28 AM EST
Futures tied to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average were
down by 0.11%, while S&P 500
futures and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked
lower by about 0.2% each.
Stocks are heading into the final
week of February on a high note after the major indexes achieved new milestones
on Friday and registered
winning weeks with help from Nvidia’s
blockbuster earnings. The blue-chip Dow closed
at an all-time high of 39,131.53, the broad-market S&P at
one point in the session broke above 5,100 for the first time and the
tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite touched
a 52-week high in Friday’s session.
Investors are now watching whether
the AI momentum can last as economic and inflation risks
linger. With that in mind, they’re also looking ahead to the monthly personal
consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge due out
Thursday.
“Nvidia has been the gift that
keeps on giving with blockbuster earnings reports driving semis, tech, and the
broader market higher this past week. With the market now up over 20%
since its Oct 2023 low, we would expect the market to take a breather at some
point,” Stephanie Lang, chief investment officer at Homrich Berg, told CNBC. “A
hotter than expected PCE report this week could be a data point that could
dampen the market enthusiasm.”
“So far stocks have shrugged off
the hawkish tone of the Fed as the AI halo has taken center stage, but the
market is banking on the Fed’s orchestration of a soft landing and the longer
the Fed waits the more risk there is to that happy ending,” she added. “Still
the Fed is well aware that they want to avoid a repeat of a stop-and-go
tightening of interest rates in the 1970s when they failed to control inflation
so they remain patient to make sure they are confident their job is done.”
There’s a raft of economic
releases on deck, including January durable orders data on Tuesday and January
wholesale inventories on Wednesday.
More
Stock
futures tick lower ahead of key inflation data and corporate earnings: Live
updates (cnbc.com)
European markets
set to start the week lower as investors await inflation data
UPDATED MON, FEB 26 2024 12:42 AM EST
European
markets are heading for a lower open Monday as global investors look ahead to
more inflation data this week.
The monthly personal consumption
expenditures price index, the U.S Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, is
due out Thursday.
U.S.
equity futures inched lower Monday as investors looked forward
to the latest inflation reading as well as a slew of big earnings reports this
week.
Overnight in Asia-Pacific
markets, Japan’s
Nikkei 225 index hit a fresh high Monday as traders returned
from a long weekend, while measures by South Korean authorities to boost its
stock markets did little to push up the main index.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Fed-Favored Inflation Gauge Seen Rising Most in a Year
Sat, February 24, 2024 at 9:00 PM GM
(Bloomberg) -- Underlying US inflation probably rose in January by the most in a year, as tracked by the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, highlighting the long and bumpy path to taming price pressures.
The core personal consumption
expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy costs, is seen rising
0.4% from a month earlier. That would mark the second straight monthly
acceleration in a gauge that’s largely been receding over the past two years.
And when annualizing the data on a
three- or six-month basis, both would rebound above 2% after dipping below the
Fed’s target in December.
Fed officials have stressed they’re
in no rush to lower borrowing costs and will only do so once they’re confident
that inflation is retreating on a sustained basis.
The PCE data, due Thursday, will
likely validate that stance and possibly further diminish market expectations
for an interest-rate cut in the coming months.
Also due are the US government’s
second estimate of fourth-quarter growth, durable goods orders, and the
Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge for February. January
figures for new- and pending-home sales will give the latest readout on the
housing market, while the Conference Board and the University of Michigan will
release separate measures of consumer sentiment.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“The stage is set for monthly PCE
inflation to jump following hot CPI and PPI reports. While that certainly won’t
put the Fed at ease, we think policymakers will largely look through the
January increase. Temporary factors — including residual seasonality and the
increase in prices of portfolio-management services — serve as critical drivers
behind the January increase. Similarly, some of the expected gain in personal
income comes from cost-of-living adjustments and an unsustainably high
nonfarm-payroll print.”
More
Fed-Favored Inflation Gauge Seen Rising Most in a Year (yahoo.com)
In other news, move along, nothing to see here.
'Not in dreamland':
WTO aims for modest outcomes at Abu Dhabi meeting
By Emma Farge and Rachna Uppal February 26, 2024 3:07 AM GMT
ABU DHABI, Feb 26 (Reuters)
- Trade ministers from nearly every country in the world gather in Abu Dhabi on
Monday for a World Trade Organization meeting that aims to set new global
commerce rules, but even its ambitious chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has sought to
curb expectations.
The almost 30-year-old global watchdog, whose rules underpin 75%
of global commerce, tries to strike deals by consensus, but such efforts are
becoming more and more difficult as signs grow that the global economy is fragmenting into separate
blocs.
"Politically it's quite
a tough time," Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters before the meeting,
referring to wars, tensions and upcoming
elections. "(But) I'm hopeful we will still be able to pull out some of
the deliverables."
While a deal among some 160 ministers on getting important
internal reforms is plagued with obstacles, negotiators
are still hoping for an agreement that could buoy global fish stocks and
protect fishermen by banning government subsidies.
"We are not in
dreamland here. International cooperation is in bad shape. Real success would
be fish, plus two or three things," one trade delegate told Reuters.
Other outcomes from the four-day meeting that are
either definite or achievable are the accession of two new members - Comoros
and East Timor - and a deal among some 120 countries to remove
development-hampering investment barriers.
Tougher areas are extending a 25-year moratorium on applying
tariffs on digital trade, which South Africa and India oppose, and an agreement
on agriculture trade rules that has eluded negotiators for decades.
More
'Not
in dreamland': WTO aims for modest outcomes at Abu Dhabi meeting | Reuters
The natural tendency of government, once in charge of money, is to inflate and to destroy the value of the currency.
Murray Rothbard.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Today, more on why Europe will likely face
yet more food price inflation in 2024.
Flooded Greek lake a
warning to European farmers battling climate change
By Angeliki
Koutantou February 24,
2024 8:48 AM GMT
KANALIA, Greece, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Sitting in a
small motorboat, farmer Babis Evangelinos glides over land he once cultivated
on the Thessaly plain in central Greece, the nearby trunks of his fruitless
almond trees submerged by floodwater.
His small plot, near Lake Karla, is among tens of
thousands of acres of cotton fields, almond trees and grazing lands that were
wiped out by unprecedented flooding last year in one of Greece's key
breadbaskets.
Five months on, much of the area - and a lot of
expensive equipment - remain underwater. A pumping station meant to stop
flooding is marooned in a shallow lake. Pelicans and herons, previously
uninterested in the once dry plain, swoop overhead.
"I could never have imagined I would have to
board a boat to get to see my land," said Evangelinos as he drifted by his
sodden trees. "Work of a lifetime ruined, gone in three, four days of
rain."
The situation has fuelled
anger among farmers who,
like many across Europe, have found their livelihoods under threat from rising
costs and climate change, and created a headache for governments expected to
pay the bill.
Farmers from India to France and
Poland have taken to the streets in recent days, bemoaning competition from
abroad, a lack of government support and low prices. Thousands
descended on central Athens on Tuesday calling for more aid.
Greece has been buffeted by
extreme weather too. Wildfires ripped through the north last year, then Storm
Daniel dumped 18 months of rain in four days in September, raising questions
about the Mediterranean country's ability to deal with an increasingly
erratic climate. It also offers a warning of what other countries further north
may face in future.
Daniel and another storm, Elias, flooded about 35,000 acres near
Lake Karla in Thessaly plain, which accounts for 25% of Greece's agricultural
produce and 5% of GDP. Some 30,000 farmers were impacted across the province.
Lake Karla had been drained in the 1960s to increase farmland
and a small part of it was recovered in recent years, only for 450-500 million
cubic metres of water to rush back in during the floods. The area near the Lake
has a small man-made outlet, and HVA, a Dutch agricultural company hired by the
government to assess the damage, said it could take up to two years for the
water to subside.
More
Flooded Greek lake a warning to European farmers
battling climate change | Reuters
Angry French farmers
storm into agriculture fair in Paris
By Stephanie
Lecocq and Manuel Ausloos February 24, 2024 10:57 AM GMT
PARIS, Feb 24 (Reuters) - A group of French farmers
stormed into a major Paris farm fair on Saturday ahead of a planned visit by
President Emmanuel Macron amid anger over costs, red tape and green
regulations.
Facing dozens of police officers inside the trade
fair, the farmers were shouting and booing, calling for the resignation of
Macron and using expletives aimed at the French leader.
"This is our home!", they shouted, as
lines of French CRS riot police sought to contain the demonstration. There were
some clashes with demonstrators and the police arrested at least one of them, a
Reuters witness saw.
----Macron, who met French farmers' union
leaders over breakfast, was scheduled to walk within the alleys of the trade
fair afterwards.
"I'm saying this for all farmers: you're not
helping any of your colleagues by smashing up stands, you're not helping any of
your colleagues by making the show impossible, and in a way scaring families
away from coming," Macron told reporters after his meeting with union
leaders.
----The Paris farm show -
a major event in France, attracting around 600,000 visitors over nine days - is
a political fixture, where presidents and their opponents are expected to
engage with the public under intense media scrutiny.
Farmers' protests which
have spread across Europe, have stoked concerns in France and beyond about
their political fallout, given they represent a growing constituency for the
far right, expected to make gains in European Parliament elections in June.
More
Angry French farmers storm into agriculture fair in
Paris | Reuters
Farmers
across Europe have been
grappling with the devastating impact of heavy rainfall during
the winter months. Let me share some insights from different regions:
1.
England: The country experienced one of the wettest
winters in decades, with continuous heavy rain from October to
December. Arable farmers faced challenges, including flooded fields and delayed
planting. For instance, Andrew Ward, a Lincolnshire-based farmer, shared how
his godson’s farm was submerged in two meters of water, potentially resulting
in a loss of £70,000. Overall, thousands of acres of crops were affected, leading to
financial strain for many farmers1.
2.
Belgium and
Germany: These countries were
particularly hard-hit by heavy rains, impacting agricultural buildings, farms,
and crops. The floods effectively eliminated some harvests, leaving
farmers in dire situations2.
3.
Netherlands: Flooding affected homes, streets, and farmland. The fruit and vegetable sector also suffered significant damage
due to the excessive rainfall3.
4.
European
Union (EU): Farmers have been
protesting across the EU for various reasons, including concerns about
climate-related challenges and regulations. Extreme weather events, such as heavy rain, contribute to food
shocks and further exacerbate the situation4.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, the UK doctors its
excess death statistics. What could they possibly be trying to cover up? Covid
vaccines? They wouldn’t do that, would they?
Approx. 10 minutes.
Change
in death stats
Change
in death stats - YouTube
How to
Lie with Statistics
How to Lie with Statistics is a book written by Darrell Huff in
1954, presenting an introduction to statistics for the general reader. Not a statistician, Huff
was a journalist who wrote many how-to articles as a freelancer.
The book is a brief, breezy
illustrated volume outlining the misuse of statistics and errors in the interpretation of statistics, and
how errors create incorrect conclusions.
In the 1960s and 1970s, it became
a standard textbook introduction to the subject of statistics for many college
students. It has become one of the best-selling statistics books in history,
with over one and a half million copies sold in the English-language edition.[1] It
has also been widely translated.
More
How to Lie with Statistics - Wikipedia
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Electrons
become fractions of themselves in graphene, study finds
February
23, 2024
The electron is the basic unit of
electricity, as it carries a single negative charge. This is what we're taught
in high school physics, and it is overwhelmingly the case in most materials in
nature.
But in very special states of matter,
electrons can splinter into fractions of their whole. This phenomenon, known as
"fractional charge," is exceedingly rare, and if it can be corralled
and controlled, the exotic electronic state could help to build resilient,
fault-tolerant quantum computers.
To
date, this effect, known to physicists as the "fractional quantum Hall
effect," has been observed a handful of times, and mostly under very high,
carefully maintained magnetic fields. Only recently have scientists seen the
effect in a material that did not require such powerful magnetic manipulation.
Now, MIT physicists have observed the elusive fractional charge
effect, this time in a simpler material: five layers of graphene—an atom-thin
layer of carbon that stems from graphite and common pencil lead. They report their
results in Nature.
They found that when five
sheets of graphene are stacked like steps on a staircase, the resulting
structure inherently provides just the right conditions for electrons to pass
through as fractions of their total charge, with no need for any external
magnetic field.
The results are the first evidence of
the "fractional quantum anomalous Hall effect" (the term
"anomalous" refers to the absence of a magnetic field) in crystalline
graphene, a material that physicists did not expect to exhibit this effect.
"This five-layer graphene is a
material system where many good surprises happen," says study author Long
Ju, assistant professor of physics at MIT. "Fractional charge is just so
exotic, and now we can realize this effect with a much simpler system and
without a magnetic field. That in itself is important for fundamental physics.
And it could enable the possibility for a type of quantum computing that is
more robust against perturbation."
---- The
fractional quantum Hall effect is an example of the weird phenomena that can
arise when particles shift from behaving as individual units to acting together
as a whole. This collective "correlated" behavior emerges in special
states, for instance when electrons are slowed from their normally frenetic
pace to a crawl that enables the particles to sense each other and interact.
These interactions can produce rare electronic states, such as the seemingly
unorthodox splitting of an electron's charge.
More,
much, much more.
Electrons become fractions of themselves in graphene,
study finds (msn.com)
The
State is, and always has been, the great single enemy of the human race, its
liberty, happiness, and progress.
Murray Rothbard.
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