Baltic Dry Index. 1629 +19 Brent Crude 83.55
Spot Gold 2019 US 2 Year Yield 4.64 +0.08
If socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialist.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
In the stock casinos, a change in sentiment? Buyers remorse? A rising fear that buyers have gambled to early and to far on central bank interest rate cuts this year.
What if buy the rumour, sell the fact, holds
true yet again and stocks start falling on actual central bank interest rate
cuts. That couldn’t happen, could it?
Asia markets trade lower as investors
assess China’s 5-year loan rate cut
UPDATED MON, FEB 19 2024 11:06 PM EST
Asia-Pacific
markets fell Tuesday, as investors parsed Chinese central bank’s decisions on
key lending rates.
The CSI 300 dropped 0.34% as
investors assessed the People’s Bank of China’s decision to cut its five-year
loan prime rate by 25 basis points to 3.95%. The one- and five-year LPR remains
unchanged at 3.45%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped
0.07% in its first hour of trade.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded
around the flatline, hovering near record highs, while South Korea’s Kospi shed
1.02%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 dipped
0.29%.
U.S. markets were closed Monday
for the Presidents’ Day holiday.
Asia
markets: China loan prime rates, Nikkei 225 (cnbc.com)
European markets set for lower open as sentiment
struggles
UPDATED TUE, FEB 20 2024 12:15 AM EST
European stocks are heading for another negative
open Tuesday as sentiment struggles to pick up in global markets.
Asia-Pacific
markets fell Tuesday, as investors parsed the Chinese central
bank’s decisions on key lending rates. In the U.S. overnight, S&P 500 futures were
almost flat as the market came off its first
losing week in more than a month.
That came after
economic data raised concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve may not begin
cutting interest rates as soon, or by as much, as market participants expected
this year. U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.
European markets live updates: stocks, news,
data and earnings (cnbc.com)
S&P
500 futures are little changed as investors look to holiday-shortened trading
week: Live updates
UPDATED MON, FEB 19 2024 7:11 PM EST
S&P 500 futures are
near flat Monday night as the market comes off its first
losing week in more than a month.
Futures tied to the S&P 500
slid 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were
near flat. Futures tied to
the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
54 points, or 0.1%.
The moves follow a losing
week on Wall Street after economic data raised concerns that
the Federal Reserve may not begin cutting interest rates as soon, or by as
much, as market participants expected this year.
All three of the major indexes
snapped five-week winning streaks. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led
the way down with a drop of more than 1.3%, while the benchmark S&P 500 slipped
about 0.4%. The blue-chip Dow saw
the narrowest loss, shedding just around 0.1%.
Wholesale prices rose more
than anticipated by economists polled by Dow Jones between
December and January, according to producer price index data released Friday.
That bolstered concerns over sticky inflation that were raised earlier in the
week after the consumer price index came in at 3.1%
on an annualized basis, higher than economists forecasted and well
above the 2% goal of the Fed.
“The Fed will be concerned by the
January CPI and PPI reports,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica
Bank. “Momentum has built up in inflation over the last few years, and persists
in many corners of the economy. ... January’s inflation data will reinforce the
Fed’s inclination to lower interest rates only gradually in 2024.”
Tuesday kicks off the shortened
trading week after U.S. markets were closed Monday in observance of the
birthday of George Washington. Investors will watch for the leading index and
economic data on nonmanufacturing in the morning.
On the corporate earnings front,
traders will monitor results from Home Depot and Walmart due
before the bell. Attention will turn focus to Palo Alto Networks’
report expected after the bell.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, gold at $3,000, oil at $100
posits Citi. Is Ukraine starting to collapse?
Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi
analysts don’t rule it out
Gold prices could soar to $3,000 per ounce, and
oil to $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months subject to any one of
three possible catalysts, according to Citi.
Gold,
which is currently trading at $2,016, could surge by about 50%, if central
banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or
in case of a deep global recession, Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of
commodities research, told CNBC.
Central bank’s gold rush
“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold
is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend: de-dollarization
across Emerging Markets central banks that in turn leads to a
crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Citi analysts including Doshi wrote
in a recent note.
That could double
central bank’s gold purchases, challenging jewelry consumption as the largest
driver of gold demand, Doshi elaborated.
Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to
record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce
credit risk, Citi said. China and Russian central banks are leading gold
purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying.
The world’s central
banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold
purchases, the World Gold Council reported in January.
“If that goes again
[to] double very quickly to 2,000 tons, we think that would be actually very
bullish for gold,” Doshi told CNBC via phone.
A global recession?
Another trigger
that could drive gold to $3,000 would be a “deep global recession” that could
spur the U.S. Federal Reserves to cut rates rapidly.
“That means the
brakes have been cut, not to 3%, but to 1% or lower - that will take us to
$3,000,” Doshi said, noting that this is a low probability scenario.
Gold prices tend to
share an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold
becomes more appealing compared to fixed-income assets such as bonds, which
would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment.
More
Gold
at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don't rule it out (cnbc.com)
Yemen's Houthis say
ship attacked in Gulf of Aden may sink
By Jonathan Saul and Ahmed Tolba
February
19, 2024 7:29 PM GMT
LONDON/CAIRO, Feb 19
(Reuters) - Yemen's Houthi militants said on Monday they had attacked the
Rubymar cargo vessel in the Gulf of Aden which was at risk of sinking, raising
the stakes in their campaign to disrupt global shipping in solidarity with
Palestinians in the Gaza war.
The Iran-aligned Houthis have made
repeated drone and missile strikes since November in the Red Sea and Bab
al-Mandab Strait. U.S. and British forces have responded with multiple strikes
on Houthi facilities but have so far failed to halt the attacks.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea said in a
statement that the Rubymar's crew was safe but that the ship was badly damaged
and at risk of sinking. The Belize-flagged, British-registered and
Lebanese-managed vessel was attacked on Sunday.
The Houthis had also shot down a U.S drone over the
Yemeni port Hodeidah, Sarea added.
The U.S. military's Central Command (CENTCOM)
confirmed that two anti-ship ballistic missiles were launched from Houthi
controlled areas of Yemen and targeted the Rubymar on Feb 18.
"One of the missiles struck the vessel,
causing damage. The ship issued a distress call and a coalition warship along
with another merchant vessel responded to the call to assist the crew of the
Rubymar," CENTCOM said on X.
Security firm LSS-SAPU, in charge of safety on the
Rubymar, said earlier the crew evacuated after two missiles hit. They were
picked up by another commercial ship which took them to Djibouti.
"We know she was taking
in water," LSS-SAPU told Reuters in comments by phone. "There is
nobody on board now ... The owners and managers are considering options for
towage."
More
Yemen's
Houthis say ship attacked in Gulf of Aden may sink | Reuters
Ukrainian businesses
fear new mobilisation law could paralyse economy
By Olena Harmash
February
19, 2024 12:28 PM GMT
KYIV, Feb 19 (Reuters) -
Ukraine's leading business associations are calling for changes to be made to
draft legislation that would overhaul the process for mobilising troops, saying
the reforms could deal a blow to the already embattled economy.
Lawmakers are due to discuss the bill to tighten rules on
mobilization in a second and final reading this month. Two years since Russia's
full-scale invasion began, the issue is highly sensitive for the army, business
community and wider public.
"Business asks the parliament not to paralyse
the country's economy with the new mobilisation legislation," the European
Business Association, which unites about 1,000 companies, said in a statement.
"A balance is needed between the military front and the economy."
Businesses' concerns range from export sectors and
those supplying the army wanting to avoid loss of staff to such issues as
call-ups being made online and civilian vehicles being commandeered in a
disorderly way.
The array of issues raised illustrates the
tightrope the government must walk as it seeks to replenish battlefield
manpower while protecting the fragile economy, which contracted by a third in
2022 before making a recovery last year.
Ukrainian authorities acted to tighten the rules on
drafting civilians into the army late last year as the fighting in the war
showed no sign of letting up and it was clear that a much smaller pool of
volunteer fighters was available.
President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy said in December he was considering a proposal to mobilize an
additional half a million men into the army.
The government drew up legislation, but the initial draft
prompted an outcry among analysts and lawmakers who said some of its proposals were
unconstitutional.
The bill was amended and a new version that has won initial backing in parliament
proposes cutting the draft age to 25 from 27, limiting draft deferrals and
increasing fines and penalties for draft dodging.
More
Ukrainian businesses fear new mobilisation law could paralyse economy | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception.
Friedrich August von Hayek
Germany likely in
recession, Bundesbank says
February
19, 2024 11:10 AM GMT
FRANKFURT, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Germany is likely in recession now as
external demand is weak, consumers remain cautious and domestic investment is
held back by high borrowing costs, the Bundesbank said in a regular monthly
report on Monday about Europe's biggest economy.
Germany has struggled since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine pushed up
energy costs, and its vast, industry-heavy economy is now in its fourth
straight quarter of zero or negative growth, weighing on all of the euro zone.
"There is still no recovery for the German economy," the
Bundesbank said. "Output could decline again slightly in the first quarter
of 2024. With the second consecutive decline in economic output, the German
economy would be in a technical recession."
This weak performance has raised questions about the sustainability of
the German economic model and critics argue that much of its energy-reliant
heavy industry is now being priced out of international markets, warranting an
economic transformation.
The government, however, has pushed back on gloomy projections, arguing
that it is merely a perfect storm of high energy costs, weak Chinese demand and
rapid inflation that temporarily holds back growth but does not fundamentally
question economic strategy.
For now the weakness will persist, the Bundesbank argues.
Foreign industrial demand is trending down and the order backlog is
dwindling.
Firms are also holding back investment, partly because financing costs
have risen sharply since the European Central Bank pushed up interest rates to
a record high to combat inflation, the central bank said.
High nominal wage growth is also impacting firms and strikes in key
sectors, such as transport, could also weigh on growth in the quarter.
Disruption of shipping in the Red Sea will, however, not have a
significant impact because there is plenty of spare capacity in shipping and
because freight costs are only a minor part of the overall cost of goods, the
Bundesbank said.
While the outlook is weak, the bank said it expects no major
deterioration in the labour market, which has insulated the economy so far, and
Germany was not facing a broad-based, prolonged recession.
"The
weak phase in the German economy that has been ongoing since the beginning of
the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine will thus continue," the
bank added.
Germany likely in recession, Bundesbank says | Reuters
Leaving
interest rates on hold risks deepening recession, Haldane warns
MONDAY 19 FEBRUARY 2024
11:42 AM
Leaving interest rates
on hold for too long risks deepening the UK’s recession, the Bank of England’s
former chief economist has said.
Asked on Bloomberg whether higher interest rates risked worsening the
UK’s recession, Andy Haldane said: “I think that’s where the balance of risks
lies, yes.”
“For me the case for
putting in place some upfront, early insurance on the monetary policy side is
strong and strengthening, and I’m fearful we leave that insurance a little too
late in the year,” he added.
Figures out last week
confirmed that the UK fell into a
shallow recession at the end of last year
after a larger than expected 0.3 per cent fall in output in the final quarter.
However, most economists think this
will do little to change the Bank of England’s thinking on when to start cutting
interest rates.
Speaking prior to the publication of
the figures, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said he would not put “too
much weight” on whether the UK was in a shallow recession.
Markets think the Bank will start
cutting rates in late spring or early summer, with the Bank Rate expected to
hit 4.5 per cent by the end of the year.
But Haldane warned the central bank
that waiting too long could have harmful consequences.
“It’s
one thing to have missed inflation on the way up, which happened; it’s quite
another to then have crushed the economy on the way down,” he said. “That
double blow to credibility is one, if I were a central banker in my old job, I
would be looking to avoid.”
Leaving rates on hold risks deepening recession, Haldane warns (cityam.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Largest
Covid vaccine study yet finds up to 3 times greater risk
©Provided by Daily Mail February 19, 2024
Covid vaccines have been linked to
small increases in heart, blood, and neurological disorders, according to the
largest global study of its kind. An international coalition of vaccine experts
looked for 13 medical conditions among 99 million vaccine recipients across
eight countries in order to identify higher rates of those conditions after
receiving the shots. They confirmed that the shots made by Pfizer , Moderna ,
and AstraZeneca are linked to significantly higher risk of five medical
conditions - including a nerve-wasting condition that leaves people struggling
to walk or think.
More
Largest
Covid vaccine study yet finds up to 3 times greater risk (msn.com)
US Officials
Concede No Active Surveillance on Long-Term Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines
A
congressional subcommittee questioned CDC and FDA officials over efforts to
monitor adverse events that may still manifest from original COVID-19 vaccines.
2/15/2024 Updated: 2/16/2024
In a
Feb. 15 hearing by the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, U.S. health officials side-stepped a question when
asked whether the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is actively
conducting extended safety surveillance on those who received early COVID-19
vaccines.
Rep. Nicole
Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) asked Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for
Biologics Evaluation and Research, whether the FDA is conducting active
surveillance and if there are any specific health markers they’re studying that
may signal trends requiring further inquiry.
“Every time
we go through and do the safety surveillance, we start back, and it goes back
to 2020. In some cases where we’re looking for certain things, we might use a
different window, but indeed, we have to look from the beginning of the period
of surveillance. I can turn it over to Dr. Jernigan because he can speak for
CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] in that regard,” Dr. Marks
said.
“So with regard
to myocarditis, we certainly have been monitoring the issue with various
different data systems. I think the most recent data really demonstrates that
you’re about eight times less likely to get myocarditis if you’re vaccinated
compared to those that are unvaccinated,” Dr. Daniel Jernigan, director of the
National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases at the CDC
responded.
Rep.
Malliotakis told Jernigan she wanted to know about “everything,” not just
myocarditis.
Dr. Jerrigan
asked her to repeat the question, and she asked again whether the FDA was
conducting extended safety surveillance on early recipients of COVID-19
vaccines.
“Most of the
reports that we get of adverse events are in the few weeks following the
vaccination,” Jernigan said. In terms of monitoring these over time, Jernigan
said the agency has “vaccine effectiveness” systems in place at the CDC.
Neither
Jernigan nor Marks referenced any active surveillance initiatives being
undertaken by their agencies to monitor people who received the original
COVID-19 vaccines for long-term health effects.
“There is no system in place for long-term
vaccine safety surveillance in this country,” Ms. Liz Willner, founder of OpenVAERS, told The Epoch Times.
“The FDA and CDC do not actively search
for safety signals. They did not find the myocarditis or the thrombosis with
thrombocytopenia syndrome that led to the withdrawal of the J&J COVID
vaccine—those signals were discovered by the European Medicines Agency.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Inhaling graphene is safe, according to human trial
Paul McClure February 18, 2024
Inhaling an
ultra-pure form of the ‘wonder material’ graphene did not produce any
short-term adverse effects on lung and cardiovascular function in a small group
of healthy volunteers. The first-in-human study opens the door to developing a
novel targeted drug delivery method to treat diseases such as cancer.
The main
goal of designing an optimized drug delivery system is to deliver therapeutic
agents to diseased tissue in a controllable manner while producing few side
effects on healthy tissue. Because of its chemical and mechanical stability,
hydrophilic properties, high surface area and biocompatibility, graphene oxide
(GO), the oxidized form of the ‘wonder material’ graphene, has been proposed
for such a purpose.
However, limited
and inconsistent evidence exists about whether GO is safe to use in humans,
mostly because of the many different sources of the material and their notable
variability in dimensions and chemical properties. Now, a first-in-human study
conducted by researchers from the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, found that
inhaling ultra-pure GO produced no adverse effects.
“Nanomaterials such
as graphene hold such great promise, but we must ensure they are manufactured
in a way that is safe before they can be used more widely in our lives,” said
Mark Miller, one of the study’s corresponding authors. “Being able to explore the
safety of this unique material in human volunteers is a huge step forward in
our understanding of how graphene could affect the body. With careful design,
we can safely make the most of nanotechnology.”
The researchers
synthesized thin, highly purified metal- and endotoxin-free GO nanosheets in
two dimensions: small GO (s-GO) and ultra-small GO (us-GO). The nanosheets were
then aerosolized for inhalation via a face mask. Fourteen healthy volunteers
inhaled either a single dose of GO or filtered air for two hours while
intermittently cycling to standardize respiratory rates between individuals. A
few weeks later, participants returned to the clinic for repeated controlled
exposures to a different size GO or clean air, for comparison.
The researchers
found that inhalation of GO was not associated with any acute adverse effects
on participants’ lung or cardiovascular function or systemic inflammation. A
“mild increase” in thrombogenicity, the tendency of a material to cause
clotting when it comes in contact with the blood, was seen in an ex
vivo model of vascular injury, highlighting the need for further
studies to more fully evaluate the actions of inhaled manufactured
nanomaterials.
More
Inhaling graphene is safe, according to human trial (newatlas.com)
The
advantage of a free market is that it allows millions of decision-makers to
respond individually to freely determined prices, allocating resources - labor,
capital and human ingenuity - in a manner that can't be mimicked by a central
plan, however brilliant the central planner.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
No comments:
Post a Comment